Sony To Go From First To Worst?

There have been many analyst predictions in the early days of the next-gen consoles, but rarely have they been so direct. DFC Intelligence President David Cole has gone on record saying there's a very real possibility Sony could lose this leg of the race to Microsoft and Nintendo. From the article: "Sony's clear strength is the first factor: brand strength and current market position. The glaring weakness of the PlayStation 3 is price, especially when compared to the competition. However, it is more than just an issue of whether the PlayStation brand strength can justify a premium price. Of course, Sony would like to point to the hardware horsepower and extra features like Blu-ray. The problem is that is only one factor in our forecasting matrix. Furthermore, with the competition having features like Xbox Live and the Nintendo Wii controller, the PS3 may not have that much of an advantage in the elusive 'Wow Factor.'" 1up Editor Sam Kennedy has further musings on this subject, with Next Generation reporting that there may be a problem getting high yields in the PS3 production process.

Comments

Wouldn't surprise me....

[Rendo]

After refusing to use my Sony fanboyism, I objectively looked at the next-gen consoles. This article is unfortunately right. Unless Sony's mission is to make it seem so expensive now, then drop it $100 for each version by launch date, I can't see the PS remaining the #1 console. Until the price drops significantly over the next few years or they DO as I suggest and drop the price towards launch date to make a huge buzz, I see the Wii coming out on top.

Re:Its only a battle for the second place

[Anonymous Coward]

I too disagree. It seems that for generations, the most powerful console was not the leader.

By RAW SPECS:
Genesis was stronger than the SNES,
N64, then Dreamcast > PS1
GameCube & X-Box > PS2.
Gameboy DS. - The DS is still outselling the PSP in every territory, and is practically a cultural phenomenon in Japan where it, (and the DS Lite) is currently outselling the PSP about 8:1

Also as far as games they do cater to 3 different Market Segments (at least in thie generation) and It's not X-Box is teh 1337, and Nintendo is teh Kiddie... crap people keep spewing.

Strengths:

Sony - Single player games. Especially RPG's.
Microsoft - Online Multiplayer. X-box live is light years beyond Sony's current offerings.
Nintendo - Offline Multiplayer. Nintendo still has some of the best Arcade style, pick up and play Party games out there.

It will be interesting to see how the next gen shakes out.

Note to forecaster.

[MrCopilot]

Stay tuned, next month we will formally unveil some of the actual numbers in our forecasts. This month we will just say that yes, Sony could easily go from first to worst in the video game market.

The only numbers I need to see are MSRP and release date. I concur with your assessment. Kiss my DVD loving ass BluRay.

As a PS2 and GameCube (Not to mention the PCs) owner (and potential XBMC buyer) I will not purchase the PS3. Let me count the reasons why.

RootKit
console Price
RootKit
MemoryStick
RootKit
MiniDisc
Betamax
Game Price
RootKit
RumbleLess Controller

About the only thing that interested me was linux. But damn I can build a pretty beefy linux box for the cost of just the console.

Oh, and did I mention the RootKit thing?

Re:Note to forecaster.

[MrCopilot]

IGN Covers Japanese Developers on the PS3http://ps3.ign.com/articles/716/716047p1.html

Of course, the big question concerned price. 90.29% of the surveyed feel the PS3 is too pricey, compared to just 9.71% who feel that it's priced just right. One developer commented, "It's more expensive than my rent."

Wow, I need to get a summer home in Japan.

Re:Note to forecaster.

[mikaelhg]

You forgot the (mis)management of Star Wars Galaxies.

Sony's running by the wrong strategy

[Opportunist]

What are the strong points of the PS3?

Good hardware
Compatibility with the PS2
BluRay

Now, looking back to the PS2, we see similar factors, and the PS2 was a huge success. But with a very important difference: The PS2 was WAY cheaper than the (inflation adjusted) equivalent of 600 bucks.

The target audience for a consumer device costing 600$ is very distinct from one costing about 200-300. Instead of the young players market, you'd have to target hardcore gamers and people who can and will spend 600 without too much effort. And most of all, the PS3 will need its "Halo": A killer game, a 'must have', a signature title that makes you WANT to buy that PS3.

BluRay is cute, but useless as a selling point. First of all, the format war is far from being decided. And, let's be honest folks, how many of you got the PS2 as a cheap replacement for a DVD player? I know nobody who has a PS2 and no other means to play DVDs, more importantly, better (especially considering sound quality) alternatives? So BluRay will certainly NOT be a selling argument, unless there are no BluRay-only players out there by the time the PS3 comes along that are cheaper than 600. And, frankly, I would NOT get a player that only plays one format (I wouldn't get a player for either of those DRMcrippled formats, but let's assume I'm a movie junkie for now). Murphy's law predicts that, when you side with one of the format contestants, you side with the wrong one. So people will play it save and wait for players that can deal with BluRay and HDDVD.

Without the 'must have' game, people will stick with the PS2 'til the PS3 is cheap, if they already have PS2 games. If they don't, they might turn for Nintendo (if they don't want to spend much money) or the X360 (if they do). Price is definitly no selling argument for the PS3, and the X360 is already out. If someone didn't have PS2 games and wanted a top level console, they already bought a X360.

The 'geek factor' does also not play in favor of Sony. Too often the news about Sony are not really geek friendly, their MD-Recorders (that couldn't export the recorded sounds sensibly), rootkits in audio-CDs, not really something that works in their favor. Sony is about to become 'uncool', too. And I've noticed a significant decline in quality over the last few years.

So the only chance I see for the PS3 is a 'killer application', something that makes you want a PS3. Without, I'd guess people would turn to Nintendo or Microsoft.

Re:Sony's running by the wrong strategy

[MMaestro]

Every title/developer that made the Ps1 and Ps2 the most successful consoles of all time is still on board for the Ps3...nobody's jumped ship and there are more exclusives than you think.

Actually there weren't that many PS1 + PS2 hit exclusives. Sure there was the Final Fantasy games and the occasional gems, Disgaea, God of War, .hack series, but compared to Nintendo's anything with Mario, Metroid, Zelda and Super Smash Bros games, Sony doesn't have much. (Squaresoft/SquareEnix never 100% supported Sony either, remember Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicals and the Dragon Quest Slime games? Konami made Castlevania games for the GBA and DS, Capcom ports games to every system they can and Namco keeps flip-flopping on PS2 support.)

Prices come down over time.

The PS2 has been out for almost 6 years now and it still hasn't hit the $100 mark. I'll believe Sony will price cut the PS3 when it actually happens.

also, the Ps3 doesn't NEED a "halo." Microsoft had TWO and they were still utterly, totally crushed last round. The titles they DO have (or are expected to have) are more than sufficient.

The Halo games are credited with single-handedly selling millions of systems. It took the PS2 about 3 years to beat the Dreamcast and that was with almost no competition from Nintendo and Microsoft. That doesn't speak of confidence.

Blu-Ray won't go exactly the same way as it's in a different stage of its lifecycle than DVD was when it launched, but even those who have never heard of it but might want a Ps3 will more than likely buy or rent a disc just to see what the fuss is about if they have access to an HDTV.

Except that most people don't have access to an HDTV thus rendering your argument moot. HDTVs have less than a 5% marketshare penetration rate worldwide. VERY few people are going to see the difference in quality.

Price isn't usually an issue for early adopters ESPECIALLY during holiday season, as the buying frenzies on ebay for the Ps2 and 360 prove. Those machines were going for easily double MSRP.

Irrelevant. The PS2 and 360 both suffered manufacturing shortages initially and the PS2 suffered from a sharp decline in demand following Christmas (wait lists were supposed to extend into April but ended up being filled up by January) whereas the 360 CONTINUES to enjoy a high demand, low supply advantage (at least in the U.S.)

As for decline in quality, Sony's Bravia sets were flying off the shelves when they were introduced and still are...and current buzz is that they're excellent sets. So any rumors of a quality drop certainly haven't appeared to affect the buying mainstream.

Wow, way to make yourself look smart by citing other markets. Sony is getting SPANKED in the TV manufacturing business. Dead pixels, poor quality, competition from Chinese manufacturers are all beating down Sony. Marketshare-wise, Sony is declining, fast. Price-wise, Sony cannot compete. Quality-wise, theres talk of Sony being re-listed as second-rate.

Sony is coming off of their second consecutive massive victory in the console area with the #1 and #2 most successful consoles in history. They have a nearly limitless stable of proven franchises on board, and have hit the point where "Playstation" is a household word. On the other hand, Nintendo has been steadily losing market share (in the console area...I'm aware the GBA and DS are quite successful) since the SNES launched and Microsoft is just coming off of losing $4 Billion on their initial venture into the industry with no signs of gaining ANY marketshare almost a year after launch. Of the three players involved this time around, Sony isn't the one that has to worry about coming in last place.

Holy crap, how much did Sony pay you to write this? The PS1 and PS2 are NOT the 'most successful consoles in history'. The NES used to control about 95% of the marketshare and the SNES vs Genesis war is practically a textbook moment in the history of electronic econ

Re:Its only a battle for the second place

[scot4875]

The gamecube ... is by far the least powerful system.

Spoken like a someone with an *excellent* grasp on computer hardware.

Tell me, where did you learn that? On PS2 and XBox forums?

Let me let you in on a secret: The Gamecube and XBox hardware are really *very* close to each other in performance, with the Gamecube having better multi-texturing and the XBox having shader support and *slightly* better polygon crunching performance. The PS2 isn't even close, hardware performance wise, to either system. If you'd like details, there are plenty of reviews out there by people more knowledgeable than yourself. If you'd like proof, LOOK AT RESIDENT EVIL 4 AND METROID PRIME, to name just two of the best looking games to come out during this console generation.

And here's where I give Nintendo props: They managed to cram an extremely elegant, efficient, powerful system into a tiny $200 box. Microsoft did produce a 'superior' system, but it's more than twice as big and 50% more expensive.

The Wii looks to be another engineering marvel, if they manage to fit the amount of power they've promised in the form factor that they've previewed. The XBox 360 is another beast, and it could probably double as a fucking hair dryer even when doing something as simple as watching a DVD.

(Note to Sony and Microsoft: The only major heat-generating component that gets into my stereo cabinet is my Denon receiver. I don't have any desire to add active cooling to cover up your engineering mistakes.)

Re:I disagree: market segmentation

[scot4875]

I've also been gaming for 25 years and have disposable income. You can pretty much negate everything you just said in that post, and that would sum up my feelings pretty well. I guess my anecdotal feelings cancel yours out, right?

Also, people like me, who want more out of a video game than a twitch reflex also want a good story with movie level production value.

Production value, or a good story? There's a huge difference. Hint: most mainstream movies don't have good stories, either. I've played maybe a handful of 'adult' games with 'mature' themes (Killer 7 comes to mind) that were any more complex, story wise, than a kids' cartoon. Hint 2: giving your story sex and blood doesn't magically make it complex.

Splinter Cell? Crap. Final Fantasy 7+? Crap. Paper Mario? Crap. Resident Evil? Crap. Sure, they're all fun games, but the stories are all inane and pretty much just get in the way. Please don't make me waste time with a story that I can guess by looking at the cover of the game.

I'm talking about MOST adults.

No, you're talking about MOST single adult males. All of the adults sitting in my living room last night (9 of us, and 5 were women) were all playing Smash Brothers Melee, Mario Golf, and Bomberman. Maybe you're content to play single-player RPGs and on-line FPSes, but some of us like to have a few friends over (especially of the female persuasion), and party games are king here.

Oh, and your willingness to spend too much money on something just to prove how awesome your home theater is really speaks far more about you than about the game industry.

--Jeremy

And still

[Trogre]

At one large store that's taking pre-orders in my country, the PS3 is already outselling the XBox 360.