Backward Sunspot Heralds Next Solar Cycle

GoramFrackinWacko writes "A backward sunspot chronicled on July 31st heralds the next solar cycle, and it looks to be a big one! From the article: 'Satellite operators and NASA mission planners are bracing for this next solar cycle because it is expected to be exceptionally stormy, perhaps the stormiest in decades. Sunspots and solar flares will return in abundance, producing bright auroras on Earth and dangerous proton storms in space.'"

Comments

Re:wishing for news

[timster]

Inside the article there is a link to an article about why they are planning for a more intense solar cycle. It's not "purely conjecture".

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10mar_stor mwarning.htm

Re:wishing for news

[bluprint]

but the fact that the science is imperfect does not warrant discounting these observations altogether.

But to the parent's point, it may indeed warrant discounting predictions.

Re:how do they *know*?

[exp(pi*sqrt(163))]

You can 'see' polarity of sunspots almost directly. In fact, here are some pictures. You can read the strength of the magnetic field by looking how the energy levels of atoms are modified. As an electron falls from one level to another it emits electromagnetic radiation with an energy corresponding to the difference. In particular, certain configurations of atoms which are normally indistinguishable, because the difference between them is simply that electron spins have been flipped, become distinct in the presence of magnetic fields, because a magentic field causes one or other energy level to be 'preferred'. This modifies the frequencies of the emitted radiation which we can then observe. This is known as Zeeman splitting. Additionally, we can read off the polarity of the fields from the polarisation of the radiation.

Re:What?

[Red Flayer]

For the sun, how the heck do you measure longitude on a sphere with no permanent features?

No permanent features -- but there are periodic relative positions than can be used to assign longitude. The easiest one, of course, would be the relative position of the Earth. Since we know the Earth's orbit, we can just use trig, along with the date and time, to determine longitude on the sun.

Yes, it's not direct observation, but it works -- and it's no less arbitrary that Greenwich being Earth longitude zero.