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Backward Sunspot Heralds Next Solar Cycle
GoramFrackinWacko writes "A backward sunspot chronicled on July 31st heralds the next solar cycle, and it looks to be a big one! From the article: 'Satellite operators and NASA mission planners are bracing for this next solar cycle because it is expected to be exceptionally stormy, perhaps the stormiest in decades. Sunspots and solar flares will return in abundance, producing bright auroras on Earth and dangerous proton storms in space.'"
If the writeup is correct, however, we could get some awesome Northern Lights. The negative repercussions would most likely be limited to fleeting disruptions in some radio traffic. Some phone calls and television feeds may have momentary issues, but even at its worst I doubt all of the doomsday predictions that claim we will arrive back at the stone age from having everything in orbit nuked.
Above all you must remember this: Don't Panic!
Information wants a fueled airplane waiting at the hangar and no one gets hurt.
"-1 Troll" is the apparently the same as "-1 I disagree with you."
Well, not everything will be nuked - only the less protected satellites (either by design, or through age and/or collisions with micrometeorites/space debris). Rad hard stuff only lasts so long after the main shielding's rendered potentially ineffective. So some TV, radio, GPS etc. will probably be knocked offline, but there are always backups to those.
Potentially more devestating would be power outages - these particles wreak havoc on the magnetosphere, and could induce severe currents in long haul power lines as magnetic induction induces current flows that trip protective breakers. (The Earth's magnetic field, weak as it is, being modified by the solar storms can induce significant currents over long enough stretches of wire). Source - http://www.agu.org/sci_soc/eiskappenman.html and http://www.spacew.com/gic/index.html
Given the fragile state of the electric grid, having transmission lines tripping all the time will cause problems. Maybe to the point of the great blackout of 2003.
On the other hand, this may be one of the last times of good sunspot activity without BPL interfering with worldwide communications, so as a ham, it could be the last time to enjoy it! (High sunspot activity also increases the ionosphere and makes long-range communications easier. Good sunspot activity can raise the frequency into the low VHF range).
There are a number of sunspot predictions for cycle 24 that call for the weakest (ie. least stormy) sunspot cycle in 100 years. The method predicting a stromy cycle 24 is a new theory and has only been correlated against past cycles. It's predictive value hasn't been demonstrated yet. On the other hand, the precursor method has been used for at least one cycle already. Only time will tell. One of the latest reports is at the address below:
% 20Cycle%2024.pdf
http://www.leif.org/research/Polar%20Fields%20and
Maybe 10 meters will open up for DX again.
8 named storms so far in the Pacific. By this time last year there had been 8 named storms as well. 7 by this time next week in 2004, 10 named storms by the end of august 2003, 8 by the end of august 2002. Hardly anything more frequent that average. In the Atlantic, on the other hand, we've had 3 named storms so far, none were hurricanes, and they think its going to remain quiet for the next couple of weeks. By then end of August last year we had 12 named storms including Katrina. The Atlantic averages 12 to 16 named storms a year. At this years rate, we're looking at a very quiet year, the global amount of storms will still be significantly down from average.