Backward Sunspot Heralds Next Solar Cycle

GoramFrackinWacko writes "A backward sunspot chronicled on July 31st heralds the next solar cycle, and it looks to be a big one! From the article: 'Satellite operators and NASA mission planners are bracing for this next solar cycle because it is expected to be exceptionally stormy, perhaps the stormiest in decades. Sunspots and solar flares will return in abundance, producing bright auroras on Earth and dangerous proton storms in space.'"

Comments

Re:wishing for news

[Shaper_pmp]

This story reminds me of the recent "predictions" of a potentially devastating hurricane season with greater than average frequency hurricanes and more of these hurricanes being Category 5 (the strongest hurricane defined). On what basis?

Well, how about historical trends, climate modelling, the NOAA... need I go on?

On the buzz around global warming and its effect on hurricanes among other things, and the recent "example" season of a record-breaking number of hurricanes. So, naturally the prediction for this season was "lots of big hurricanes". I'm not sure, but so far I don't recall any hurricanes well into the season

Right, because the one thing we all know about the weather is that it's famously predictable and regular.

Like, if they predict rain for the coming week, it means it's going to rain every single day, every single hour, everywhere, doesn't it?

Or, just perhaps, the trend is that hurricanes are increasing in frequency and violence... and a single point of anecdotal data is, y'know, completely irrelevant?

Sure enough, looking at the recent trends in hurricane frequency and violence for the North Atlantic/Caribbean alone, we see a fairly sharp upswing since about 1996.

And sure enough, the trend isn't regular as clockwork - in fact, 1997 has one of the lowest frequencies for years.

We know more than ever about the sun, but the more we know the less we know how to predict what it's going to do... "Satellite operators and NASA mission planners are bracing for this next solar cycle because it is expected to be exceptionally stormy, perhaps the stormiest in decades".... That is purely conjecture -- no more likely to be correct than not.

I don't know if you've ever heard of an estimate? It's different to a guess. That means while an estimate may turn out to be wrong, it's based on some evidence at least. A guess can be pulled out of your arse at a moment's notice (and should be taken as such), but an estimate (by definition) implies some calculation and reasoning, even if from incomplete information.

Normally, I'd agree with your sentiment - the news media is far too eager to find things for us to be scared of, and people tend to just lap it up without any critical thought or further research.

However, you've just done the opposite - because of your pre-existing prejudice you've blithely assumed there's nothing to the prediction without even taking the few seconds' Googling it took to show you were wrong.