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Can Anyone Beat WoW?
Next Generation is running an article penned by DFC Intelligence Analyst David Cole, exploring the overwhelming popularity of World of Warcraft. Coles asks Is It Possible to Surpass World of Warcraft? He explores the reasons behind WoW's success, and what it means for the market as a whole. From the article: "All of these factors point towards one conclusion: World of Warcraft's success, admirable as it may be, will be extremely difficult to duplicate. This will be bad news for all the frothy investors who are suddenly discovering the MMOG business model. In the new DFC Intelligence Online Game Market report we forecast revenue in the MMOG market to grow over 150% from 2006 to 2011. However, this doesn't account for all the investment money that is likely to be lost chasing after that revenue growth."
Yup, I beat my addiction to WoW. The day I pushed that cancel button was the day I was set free. So it is possible to beat WoW!
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In about 2-5 years, WoW will start to fizzle out as people grow up and away from the game. As well, improvements in computer hardware, GPUs in particular, will start to make the cheesy character graphics that WoW uses seem old.
Games run their course. Blizzard has been really lax in adding new content, and fixing bugs. If they are going to average a major update once every 2 years, customers will start to leave for other games.
While it may be a long time before anyone beats the subscription numbers that WoW currently boasts, as more people get broadband and more people start having better systems, the MMO market can handle more people.
But it won't happen for a few years. As much as I am looking forward to Vanguard: Saga of Heroes, it won't challenge WoW for numbers. And nothing else in the works that has been talked about is really lighting any major fires. And even Eve's slow but steady growth will only go so far, as it's a game of Haves and Have Nots, and new players are mostly Nots.
The only thing I can see beating WoW in terms of MMO Competition is if a number other high-quality games enter the market and drop their price point and subscription fees. It's really Blizzard's to lose. If they release a string of bad patches, quit putting out expansions, the like, and people hit 60 (or 70) and lose interest, they'll flock to Eve, Lineage, Guild Wars, CoH, and others.
Indeed, didnt we learn from the cinematic masterpiece WarGames that the only way to win is not to play? :)
Warhammer forums
Since most players are unwilling to play more than one MMO on a regular basis, the trick is to entice players to leave WoW and play your game. The trick is to find the "hook" necessary to do just that. I would propose to offer a contest to give away free lifetime accounts to a significant number of people. By doing this, you can get an initial playerbase that can entice their friends to come to the new game. One of the biggest draws to MMOs (for me at least, although I'm not a WoW player) is the social environment from playing games with friends (whether in real-life, or just in-game).
Of course, the game does need to be worth playing in order to entice anyone away from another MMO
See, this got meta-moderated to 5, Funny.
While it is funny, it's also the truth. When you quit WoW, at first it feels like you're giving up a part of you, but with time, you actually feel that sense of success that you never felt while playing. It's like quitting smoking. You never started smoking with a specific goal in mind, so there was is no 'end'. Quitting is the only way tou can beat smoking, drinking, drug addiction... etc.
And some people say WoW isn't an addiction....
To understand recursion, one must first understand recursion...
For instance the MMO that gives acceptable rewards for soloing sees a good deal of its playerbase at max level relatively quickly. This impacts the long-standing belief touted by casual gamers (the main audience of WoW) that the journey is the fun part, and the end game item hoarding and raiding is boring. Also it leverages the HUGE userbase that followed Bliz from all their previous games. Generally, players want new content, new classes, new races, etc. instead of just a 3d version of the 2d FPS games. Lastly, the graphics of WoW are nothing wonderful. Contrary to new games touting "life-like graphics", where one needs to buy at least 300 bucks of gpu to play on high settings, WoW's graphics look cartoony, which allows them to put more focus on design and content more than the 795,945th pixel on the jewel in the pommell of the....
My dissapointment in the direction recent games are taking comes from the formula game studios are learning to take to produce something "new". Take 1 of the following: a game of the year, a series game, a movie, a cult-classic that fans want brought back. Throw a design team together that has proven success doing nothing innovative. Come up with 1 feature that's not really new to throw to the masses as "innovation". Produce it as quickly and cheaply as possible, creating a fluffy nothing that will be beaten quickly and get the consumers ready for the next game at another $50. Hype it everywhere, and only show pre-rendered videos of it so that people who don't know better will believe that the gameplay is open-ended and gorgeous. Profit. Rinse, and repeat.
The only good news in the gaming industry for a while was Vanguard, but thats so far a dissapointment, and the Wii (which is truely innovative). Nintendo, do you want my bank account numbers so we can do direct deposit to you?
"Reality continues to ruin my life" - Calvin and Hobbes
WoW will be beat, but not by something that does what it does better. Instead it will be bested by something everyone hasn't seen before. I'm not talking about a new type of game, but some kind of evolution of the MMOG that someone is probably working on right now. That said, WoW is probably the ultimate within the MMOG model as it currently exists, but nothing lasts forever . . .
WoW was not the game that defined the MMORPG genre. EQ was the game that developed the critical mass for wide appeal to take that crown.
It is more like StarCraft and Counterstrike... a game that has been refined to the point of wide lasting appeal.
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..at all the time I wasted playing WoW brings a tear to my eye. I neglected my loving wife, my friends, I would occasionally skip work, school, or other activities just so i could 'raid.' That's the worst part about that game. It hooks you with the ease of leveling and the fact that you CAN level on your own. You don't need to be in a giant group to gain experience (a la FFXI).. The questing system is intuitive and enjoyable, the storyline is great wether you played the original Warcraft installments or not.
The game was successful because everyone wanted a 'casual friendly' game to play - and that's exactly what it *WAS*. But once everyone reached 60 and the developers lollygagged their way to the first expansion (after what? 2 years? 3? I can't even remember how long the game has been out thanks to being locked in a cold room full of empty coke bottles and a broken '2' key for Sinister Striking!)
Once you hit that top level and started raiding, it became a horrible addiction. The only way to see real character advancement is through new gear, and the GOOD STUFF (as all crack heads want!) is only available via raiding A LOT. I went from a happy casual player to a 5 day a week 'second full time job' player.
I don't think another game will have that much success anytime soon - im sure it's possible.. but I also think that the hayday of WoW is going to slowly come to an end. I don't know if their numbers are still going up or not, but im sure as more and more new games will be released that will slowly steal games from WoW... Blizzard might try to hold onto the throne with World of Starcraft or World of Diablo or basically just rehashing WoW with one of their other brands to keep it 'fresh', but eventually even they will bow down eventually.
Besides... WoW is in a whole new 'era' of gaming IMO. 20 years ago a fun game was playing cards after dinner with your parents (maybe a few more years than 20...whatever) The point is that as technology continues to develop and becomes accepted, more and more people jump 'on the wagon', and thats just part of what the gaming community is seeing today. Is it that WoW just happened to be 'the right game at the right time', or will it be looked at years from now as 'one of the first good games in the 'Gamers-Generation.' (I know that sounds a bit silly but hopefully you understand my point.)
Disclaimer: I fall upon my rights as an american to post this message without using spellcheck. Thanks!
Its Deluxe, son. Deluxe!
First of all I think it's a very narrow view to call WoW the MMO leader. Lineage 2 has far more players / revenue / you name it.
WoW is the most popular MMO here in America (one might say in the English speaking market)... but to place it in some high regard and label it "unbeatable" by other games is a little short sighted.
Games are HIGHLY subject to fads, although MMOs have a longer cycle than single players just due to the length of time involved to play the game and consume all the content. Beyond that as technology improves WoW will eventually become out-dated on levels of graphics, capacity & such (even with expansions).
As always it's best to view history and use that as a judge. What are some of the past games that were king of their tier?
Everquest used to be "the" MMO game that "dominated" the market... where is it now?
Branching out from the MMO genre: Quake? Unreal? Starcraft? Civ? Super Mario Bros? (so many more)
All games still have a player base, but I'd argue they're all past their prime and on the way out.
I have no doubt that WoW will still have a significant player base in several years (heck, people still play Ultima Online and Meridian 59)... but it WILL eventually lose it's title as the #1 hot and talked about game.
Now guessing what a game will have to do to replace WoW's spot at the top of the hill.... that's another matter.
like WoW does. If you had said Warcraft 5 years ago, how many people would know what you were talking about? Lots. They already had the brand recognition and that sold a lot of copies for them right there. I think the next big MMO you'll see will also be built off of another franchise game (and NOT starcraft!). DDO's only real attribute is because it has D&D in the name. That sold it to a lot of people right off the bat, even though it is just enough D&D to be confusing to newcomers and not enough for a lot of fans of D&D to like playing it. Most of the other MMO's you see out there don't have that recognition (puzzle pirates, eve, guild wars, etc.) and an MMO is a hard place to build brand recognition these days.
Watch for a big name title to go MMO...
But online chat isn't an industry. Or did you pay to chat in IRC or with an instant messenger ?
Online gaming is here to stay. However, in order for it to stay an industry, it must make money. Currently this is easily done, since the games require centralized servers and this in turn leads naturally to such things as monthly fees. But what if the underlaying technology was to change ?
The system is currently basically the old central mainframe / dumb terminal -setup. The servers take care of all the processing, and the client program just reads user input and gives output. A glorified MUD. Unfortunately, it is not scalable.
The number of simultaneous players is rising constantly, and the server size can't be increased forever. So, in time, more and more of the actual processing needs to be offloaded to the client machines. The main problem is that the server needs to prevent cheating somehow; the easiest ways of doing this include using DRM or simply offloading the task to several clients at once and comparing the results. Eventually this system would resemble the Napster of old, where all the actual interesting things were on people's computers, and the servers basically just coordinated the whole thing. At this point people would propably also connect directly to each other to decrease lag.
So, what happens when someone introduces the Gnutella of MMORPGs ? A system which doesn't need a central server to function. The players would run "servents", each of which would not only provide the user interface but also run a tiny area of the gameworld. Walk to the edge of the current area, and your servent connects to another servent. Enough people concentrate to an area, and the servent running divides parts of it to nearby ones; an area is empty enough, and the servent asks other servents for more areas to run.
Such an MMORPG would have no need for monthly fees. It's running costs would be divided between its players in their electrical and bandwidth bills. It would mean the end of the industry, not because MMORPGs themselves became unpopular, but because the model of monthly fees would be unmaintainable - you don't need a central server to play, so you don't need to pay anyone to run one either.
Of course content makers would stand to make a killing selling cool new models, but that's how it should be. And of course this MMORPG with no central controlling entity would likely have some rather unwholesome areas, but then again, that's how it should be, IMHO :).
Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.
I think WoW was good for one thing. It got people who never heard of MMO's, or people who were afraid to try the more hardcore MMO's to "get their feet wet".
It's not necessarily something that future MMO's should draw from. Of course there will be WoW clones, but I think all of the companies will benefit from the success of WoW.
You'll see people start with WoW and find that they need more depth and challenge. Games like FFXI, Everquest, and the soon to come Vanguard will all benefit from the influx of gamers into the genre.
I don't think WoW will be "beaten". It will co-exist with all the other MMO's, and everyone will benefit from WoW's ability to attract the casual gamer.
There's no point in me, as a user, leaving Wow to play a game that is almost as good -- i have too much invested in my Wow character(s).
Would you rather have a game that had all of the depth as WoW, perhaps even more story, but didn't have the singular character advancement? One more focused on the progression of the story and environment of the world, and not the player? A game such as that might be doomed to failure since the user has less to identify with in the game, so there is nothing that actually ties the user to the game. I don't know which way is better, I'm just curious as to your opinion. It seems by your port that you'd be more likely to part with it.
I ask because it seems that some people avoid WoW on purpose because it is requires such an investment of energy to play, despite the fact that it is no doubt fun. Personally, that's why I avoid it, but I might play a game that doesn't make me build up mountains of a character's skills and attributes.
Qualitas edurus commercium, nullus penitus net rimor, nullus deus beneficium
Let's look at this rationally, Wow isn't just a great game it's a phenomonial game. Just like EverQuest wasn't a great game it was a phenomonial game when it first came out. It's like Super Mario Brothers 3, best selling game ever. But is it beatable?
Well to beat WoW you need to approach it the same way. Take a well built world that has been seen in multiple games that everyone knows and loves, something like Mario or Zelda (note Final Fantasy doesn't have the same world so it doesn't work the same way) Make it identifiable but playable, allow the players to play any of the major races, Invent a couple new ones and you should have WoW.
The problem is no one has a game that was as popular as Warcraft available for this quite yet. And those that do arn't willing to go to MMORPG. Mario and Zelda will never be MMORPG if there's a god in heaven. Stuff like Command and Conquer doesn't have the races to go along. GAmes like Final Fantasy doesn't have a viable world.
The problem really comes in when games try to be so different it hurts. Star wars galaxies anyone? If there was a game world that could be better than WoW it would be Star wars, but there's not enough developer items. LOTR is coming soon but isn't sounding like a strong contender. Star trek could work, Ender's game would be fun but too obscure.
The problem is for something like WoW you need to have Devs who've created successful games in the world, interest in going into MMORPG, and the patience and money to really create solid beta, Just paying a company money to make a MMORPG won't work because they might not work with the source material, they might not have enough time, they might just not understand the material (Scarface? The main character is going to get up from the ending, so the whole moral is gone and it's a stupid run and gun). WoW will be beaten, but probably not for another 4-5 years. But that's ok. That's actually the way MMORPGS work. They have very long life times but it also takes a long time to create a successful one.
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UO == Warcraft I (The first real one)
EQ == Warcraft II (The one that set the standard for the genre)
WoW == Starcraft (The one that basically perfected the genre)
Remember kids, tin foil doesn't work, so use LeadHat.
Would you rather have a game that had all of the depth as WoW, perhaps even more story, but didn't have the singular character advancement?
To this I say that most Wow player would answer a resounding no. Wow is not a game about story. There are some good story-driven quests in the game, but ultimately they're nothing but a passing amusement for players. If you want a game with a good story, there are much better choices (KOTOR for example).
What makes the game popular is that you build up a character and make him more and more powerful. Through the uberness of your character, and your inevitable involvment in social structures such as guilds, you gain (virtual) social status. That's the real core of it. Getting recognition, living inside a virtual social space. Building a second life.
While some people might avoid Wow because it's too much of an investment (not a bad idea), the millions who play it, do it because it's such and investment. Why? Because that investment can provide them with great rewards, quite similar to those in the real world. Gaining friendship, respect by your peers for your hard work, status symbol items. People will be willing to spend hundreds of hours just to get a higher stat number, because people will acknowledge and respect those who do.
When I started playing Wow quite casually I realized that after a certain point, the story content drops pretty much to zero. How great is the Molten Core story? People who play raid after raid do it for the rewards, both "material" (items) and social (be recognized by the guild). While I agree that some people might get drawn in to the game at the perspective of exploring an interesting world and living a great story, they drop out pretty early if they don't get hooked into the grinding side of it. Which is exactly what happened to me.
A story, although some adaptations are possible, is by nature a single player experience. It might be done online, but it's basically an interaction between you and a storyteller/game designer. What people crave in wow is not the single player experience, it's the social component.
I know that addicts can't conceive that everyone doesn't share their addiction, but it's true. Gambling and drinking are two good examples. Most people never get addicted to those things, and indeed just aren't wired in such a way that they will. They do them both when they want to, but they have no need to do them all the time. To an alcoholic, I'm sure it's hard to understand how it feels to not NEED to have another drink, but most people just don't.
Well, same deal with WoW. There's plenty of people who play just for fun, and play on their own terms. I have a coworker who just now, after like 2 years of play, got his first level 60 character. HE just doesn't have time to play a whole lot, has a family and all and that takes priority.
Even those of us that do play a lot aren't addicts simply because we do. Personally, I'm evaluating what I want to do in WoW. I enjoy raiding, but it's getting a little old. I'm trying to decide if I want to switch back over to a PvP server, or maybe just cancel my account and play other games. I don't feel any "need" to play WoW or meet some artificial goal, it's simply what I choose to spend a fair amount of my free time on because it entertains me. I suppose I could spend it watching TV, or knitting, or in a bar, or any of the other more "acceptable" activities but I like games so that's what I'll spend my time on. At this point, WoW is the one that gives me the most entertainment, though as I said, it's growing long in the tooth.
So if you find yourself addicted to a game, unable to quit, having it interfere with your life, then that's not a good thing, but don't project that on to all others. There's plenty of us that can just play for fun, and leave when it's not any longer. WoW is my 4th MMORPG to date. It has lasted much longer than any others (9 months was the prior record with DAoC) but I doubt it'll last till next year. It doesn't force you to play it, you force yourself to play it.