Slashdot Mirror


Over 2.5 Billion Cellular Connections Now Active

An anonymous reader writes "It appears that humankind has managed to spread cellular technology like a virus. About 2.5 billion cellular connections exist in the world today, according to an estimate from the GSM Association. It took 20 years to reach 1 billion connections, three years to reach 2 billion connections and the market is moving to reach its third billion in a period of just over two years. Not surprisingly, the countries with fastest growth are the 'emerging nations.'"

168 comments

  1. At last, the ??? has been found! by QuantumFTL · · Score: 4, Funny

    Step 1: Steal Underpants
    Step 2: Re-sell w/ sewn-in camera cell phone
    Step 3: Profit!

    1. Re:At last, the ??? has been found! by kkiller · · Score: 1

      /me patents the bluetoothed, camera phone, mobile TV equipped underpant.

    2. Re:At last, the ??? has been found! by QuantumFTL · · Score: 1

      /me patents the bluetoothed, camera phone, mobile TV equipped underpant.

      I'm sorry to inform you, sir, but I have prior art.

      Where is it you say? I'm wearing it, baby!

    3. Re:At last, the ??? has been found! by Pollardito · · Score: 1

      so either the camera is sewn-in with the lens aiming into the underpants (in which case you might have trouble finding someone who wants to view your slideshow, but maybe add some hot grits for that niche appeal), or the camera is aiming outward and you get lots of pictures of the world from a Docker's commercial vantage point...

  2. similar by thedogcow · · Score: 5, Funny

    I have a similar graph.... Y axis is number of "cell conditions" and the X axis is the level "Assholeivity in Public (theater, etc). " Yes, I think is a directly proportional relationship.

    --
    Yes! I listen to NYC Speedcore and do math at 3AM. I suggest you try it too.
    1. Re:similar by jkburges · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Actually, I think it might be exponential - since for each extra person talking on a phone, each individual feels the need to speak a bit louder, and hence total volume goes up exponentially.

    2. Re:similar by QuantumFTL · · Score: 4, Funny

      Eh, I don't worry about the assholes w/ cell phones in theatres. I figure give it a few more years till they start with the brain cancer... *chuckles maniacally*

    3. Re:similar by rikkards · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Something I never really noticed until lately and I need to rant. Mod me however you wish my karma can take it.
      When in hell did it become socially acceptable to receive a call at your table at a restaurant? Not McDonalds but a typical restaurant that actually has a dress code.
      Proper manners would dictate to excuse yourself from the table and take the call elsewhere rather than talking extremely loudly and then giving dirty looks at other patrons when you can't hear over other people talking.

      Sorry for the rant. I feel better now.

    4. Re:similar by Scarblac · · Score: 1

      Sounds more like a quadratic function to me.

      --
      I believe posters are recognized by their sig. So I made one.
    5. Re:similar by 70Bang · · Score: 1


      There's my way to fix cell phones & pagers when making presentations, particularly larger audiences (the larger, the better):

      "Before I begin, I will forewarn you to silence your cell phones and pagers now. If we hear a familiar tone, you'll undoubtedly rush out of the room as though God is about to kill himself and you're the only one working the Suicide Hotline. When you return, you will come up on stage and sing your high school fight song or you *will* be escorted out of this room. If you're going to subject us to your noise, then we will force you to add to the noise. controforce you to let you hear other extra noise. Your devices have vibrate or silent|flash mode. Now...castrate your toys."

      The first time someone thinks it's a joke and has been removed didn't think it was so funny...

      Parents have lobbied against school boards (and likely in the courts when rebuffed) so their kids can keep their cells with them, "in case of an emergency". What did they do twenty years ago, wait for a carrier pigeon? That's easily fixed - put them all on a table up-front and if one rings, let the owner come up front and deal with the call. That should cut down on the hijinks which otherwise goes on (including sharing answers on tests).

      You know, there was a(n) UL/FOAF about someone developing their vacation photos and one shows up with some guy's ass and the camerea owner's toothbrush sticking out of their ass. I'm surprised we don't hear about updates for the cell world when someone leaves their cell unattended...say when they rush into a meeting and it's sitting on their desk?

    6. Re:similar by GmAz · · Score: 0

      If there was device that you could carry with you in your pocket that blocked the cell phone signals, I would buy two of them. Nothing bothers me more than a person on their phone in a movie theatre. I make a young girl cry once when I chewed her out for talking on one during a movie once. I am not sure how much you pay for a movie where you live, but it costs me $20 for me and my wife to get in and that doens't include any food.

      --
      Click Click Bloody Click PANCAKES!
    7. Re:similar by tomstdenis · · Score: 1

      I could do with less whiny little brat kids.

      Yes, your an infant. Now shut the hell up. /me Had several flights over the atlantic with asshat kids around me. Nothing like 8 hours of screaming to make your arrival all the more pleasant...

      Tom

      --
      Someday, I'll have a real sig.
    8. Re:similar by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Eh, I don't worry about the assholes w/ cell phones in theatres. I figure give it a few more years till they start with the brain cancer... *chuckles maniacally*

      I think you've got it backwards; once the brain starts to deteriorate due to brain cancer, people act like total jerks in theatres. Then again, brain cancer may not be the only cause...

  3. Some more facts: by tanveer1979 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I spent a small amount of time in the US, and surprisingly the tarrif structure and the talk time etc., plans available in India are far better than in the US. In broadband access developed nations have lot of lead over developing ones, maybe because to have good connectivity you require undersea cables as most of the servers are in west, but in case of cellular connections countries like India are way ahead of the US/Europe, and very soon 3G deployment will be mainstream.

    --
    My Aurora : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o91ZsGwJYyg
    FB : https://www.facebook.com/TanveersPhotography
    1. Re:Some more facts: by dread · · Score: 2, Informative

      You can't compare the US cellular market to anything else. It is a quagmire. Compare India (with it's administrative circles, weird government regulations and crappy operators) with something in Europe instead. In fact, India is so far behind on the scale it isn't even funny.

      --
      I've had a wonderful time, but this wasn't it -- Groucho Marx
    2. Re:Some more facts: by cannonfodda · · Score: 5, Informative
      I have had a pretty much similar experience with the U.S. network providers. Certainly in Europe the coverage is significantly better and the total cost of ownership of a phone seems a lot less than people are paying in the U.S.

      But it's not that surprising really. I've alwasy understood that the economics of the mobile network (feel free to shoot me down here since I'm relaying and might have got this wrong) are essentially controlled by population density. There is a point beyond which it becomes uneconomic to develop a digital cell network due to the limited range of the transmitters (about 11 miles nominal range the last time I looked).

      So it's not really surprising that the largest developments are in the developing countries and specifically Asia. There are large VERY densely populated urban centres which, until recently, had no cell coverage. So even selling call time at a low rate will mean that companies can recover their investment very quickly. So I would guess that the graph in the article will have to flatten out, or the emphasis will shift to different markets as the large urban areas in Asia and South America become saturated with providers in the same way as European cities are.

      In Europe after the inital rapid development of the urban networks the coverage of rural areas was very slow. Scotland was a prefect example. Over half the population of the country lives in a 50 mile strip along the central belt of the country. Fine. Great coverage. Go up to the highlands....and until recently it was a very different story. The landscape and low population density made it a costly investment to cover these areas. You would have to expect that the same thing will happen in these new markets. Explosive development in e.g Mumbai followed by a much, much slower growth over the country as a whole. I'd love to see a distribution map of this stuff.

      Anyway back to the original point. I've always understood that the reason why the service in the U.S. was rubbish was that, once the urban areas were well covered there was no real impetus to extend that to the gulfs between cities.

      --
      Hmmmmmm
    3. Re:Some more facts: by pimpimpim · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Why are all the people lauding the european cell network here? I agree the quality is ok, but the pricing is ridiculous. Calling to a mobile phone can be up to 20 cent or more, say 20 times more than a normal phone call. Also, since there are so many small countries in europe, providers earn a shitload of money on 'roaming' costs, even when the same companies are present in almost all countries by now. It has nothing to do with actual costs anymore, but only with how much they can get away with to ask. The fact that there is 'competition' isn't helping much out here, as they silently make sure not to underbid their competitors too much.

      --
      molmod.com - computing tips from a molecular modeling
    4. Re:Some more facts: by jacksonj04 · · Score: 1

      The other problem is this: where do you put masts in the middle of nowhere? The UK's national parks, such as the Lake District and Yorkshire Dales, have *very* strict regulations about what can be built and unless your cell company can do something like get a mast put up in a church tower then there's not going to be any coverage.

      OTOH if you're going to be travelling through small town America, can't get to a landline and *must* stay in touch then satphones are a good investment.

      --
      How many people can read hex if only you and dead people can read hex?
    5. Re:Some more facts: by Don_dumb · · Score: 1
      where do you put masts in the middle of nowhere
      That is what primary school paying fields are for.
      --
      If this were really happening, what would you think?
    6. Re:Some more facts: by Don_dumb · · Score: 4, Informative
      Also, since there are so many small countries in europe, providers earn a shitload of money on 'roaming' costs
      That is why the EU is bringing in legislation to reduce roaming charges across the continent http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activitie s/roaming/roaming_regulation/index_en.htm and is (and has been) investigating the mobile companies for anti-competitive behaviour.

      Calling to a mobile phone can be up to 20 cent or more, say 20 times more than a normal phone call
      I never quite worked this one out myself, I think it has just been accepted without really questioning why. It is another reason why most of us (in the UK) have mobiles and text each other (although a simple text message can often turn into a big text conversation and end up being more expensive than just calling the person in the first place)
      --
      If this were really happening, what would you think?
    7. Re:Some more facts: by stunt_penguin · · Score: 1

      Calling to a mobile phone can be up to 20 cent or more,

      You lucky bastard, whereever you are; In Ireland, ringing a Vofdafone customer from an O2 mobile during the day is 70cents (euro) a minute (that's about $1), and things don't get much cheaper during the evening, either. It's a fucking disgrace, but no-one seems to ever do anything about it.

      --
      When the posters fear their moderators, there is tyranny; when the moderators fears the posters, there is liberty.
    8. Re:Some more facts: by arivanov · · Score: 1

      In the lake district you are hardly ever out of direct sight from at something that has been deemed to be sufficiently mouldy and smelly to be a listed building. In most cases it is a badly done fake imitation of a castle (Wray Castle is a prime example). Nearly universally it has nothing to do with castles, history or anything like this. It is a victorian villa build by some rich bastard from the neigbouring ex-industrial areas further south. Nearly all of these have antennas on top (once again the Vodafone cell on top of Wray Castle is a prime example). While there are some difficulties in getting planning permissions there the cell companies have learned to get around them (orange fake redwood trees are a prime example on this).
      As long as there is human habitation the cellcos manage to get their way around regs. It is outside inhabited areas which is interesting

      --
      Baker's Law: Misery no longer loves company. Nowadays it insists on it
      http://www.sigsegv.cx/
    9. Re:Some more facts: by mapkinase · · Score: 1
      Calling to a mobile phone can be up to 20 cent or more, say 20 times more than a normal phone call
      What do you mean by that?
      Calling from what? Landline or mobile?
      Costing to whom? Caller or callee?
      Normal phone call is what? Landline to landline? Mobile to mobile?
      Note that I have very little experience with European day-to-day usage of mobile phones.
      --
      I do not believe in karma. "Funny"=-6. Do good and forbid evil. Yours, Oft-Offtopic Flamebaiting Troll.
    10. Re:Some more facts: by squiggleslash · · Score: 2, Informative

      I have had a pretty much similar experience with the U.S. network providers. Certainly in Europe the coverage is significantly better and the total cost of ownership of a phone seems a lot less than people are paying in the U.S.

      I've heard this argument about it costing more in the US frequently, but in my experience it's a misrepresentation. I've compared them from time to time with UK tariffs, which may be artificially high, I'm not sure, and US cellphone tariffs are extremely attractive.

      The major difference is that on the low end, you can just about get away with a slightly better plan in Europe than in the US, but - get this - it's only useful and cheap if you're not a cellphone user. Essentially, pay as you go in Europe generally has lower minimums that last longer. So whereas in the US, you may have to pay $10 a month to keep your account open (though T-Mobile will keep an account open for a year for every top-up once you've paid at least $100 once), in Europe that may be what you have to pay for an entire year's worth of being connected. Europeans tend to forget though that one reason for that is that mobile operators can depend upon a significant number of PAYG users having their bills paid for by others in the form of incoming calls, which are charged at high rates to the originator of the call.

      So if you don't use your phone that often - maybe a hundred minutes or less a year - or get a lot of incoming calls, you, personally, don't have to pay much. Overall though, in the latter case, the bills for owning your mobile will be high, it's just they're paid for by other people.

      My wife and I are on a US tariff that gives us the following (and it's not even that great by modern US standards:

      1. 700 shared "any time" minutes.
      2. Unmetered (that is, free, not part of the 700 allowance) calls between our mobiles (and all other mobiles on T-Mobile US's network
      3. Unlimited (that is, free, not part of the 700 allowance) calls at nights and weekends
      4. Unlimited text and multimedia messages (except outgoing International)
      5. Unlimited GPRS

      For that we're paying around $90 a month, inclusive of taxes, that amounts to (if I have the calculations correct) 25GBP per phone per month. Now, typically, we make (well) over 2,000 minutes of calls per month (it varies, we've had bills showing more than 4,000 minutes in the past, back when we were planning the wedding), and between the unmetered call types and the 700 minute call allowance, we're always well within our limits (we've never had to pay overage since we got the plan.) The only time we pay more than the $90 fee is when we make outgoing international calls or outgoing international text messages.

      If we were living alone, we could get similar plans for around $50 a month, with plans with slightly less features available for less. Some operators, notably MetroPCS, offer completely unmetered, no contract, plans for well under $50.

      I looked, and I'm loath to see anything comparable in the UK. The best I can find are some temporary offers from Orange that offer unlimited calls between Orange cellphones, or (on a seperate plan!) to landlines (one of these is limited to off-peak, I can't remember which), and an offer from Vodafone to "stop the clock" making off-peak calls limited to one hour cost "three minutes" of airtime.

      For that reason, people don't really use mobile phones to talk in the UK that often. Texting is the "big thing". This isn't something many have noticed because until recently landlines were also only available with metered calls, even local calls, so people are used to watching what they say and how long they speak for on phones.

      The thing most people who make the comparison fail to do is ask "Which place has the better plans if I want to use my phone?" As a general rule, the more you use it, the better the US plans are and the worse the "We must meter everything!" attitude the European telecommuni

      --
      You are not alone. This is not normal. None of this is normal.
    11. Re:Some more facts: by 10Ghz · · Score: 1

      While roaming might be a "problem", in reality it's not THAT big of an issue. 98% of the time people stay in their own countries. And at least in Finland the cost of calls is about 6-8 cents a minute. Less than half the 20 cents you quoted. And the service is usually loaded with all the features you could ever want (caller-ID, SMS, MMS, GPRS, conference-calls, voicemail etc. etc.) And the phones are unlocked and not crippled.

      Do Americans still pay for the calls they receive?

      --
      Lesbian Nazi Hookers Abducted by UFOs and Forced Into Weight Loss Programs - -all next week on Town Talk.
    12. Re:Some more facts: by cygnusx · · Score: 1

      Since you make it sound as if India is communications nirvana, I'll introduce a few elements of reality into the picture...

      I spent a small amount of time in the US, and surprisingly the tarrif structure and the talk time etc., plans available in India are far better than in the US ... in case of cellular connections countries like India are way ahead of the US/Europe, and very soon 3G deployment will be mainstream

      You know, you really shouldn't lump Europe with the US in terms of mobile penetration. According to some very rudimentary looking-up, India's looking at 30% penetration by 2009 (ref), whereas Europe is going to have near-100% penetration by 2007 (ref). Also, the US even with it's "dismal" record in mobiles has a penetration rate of 70% estimated for 2006 (ref).

      On top of this you have other indicators, like the percentage of subscribers actually using GPRS (leave 3G aside for the moment because its uptake hasn't been huge anywhere), which is embarassingly low in India -- which is why Airtel has a Rs99/'unlimited' use GPRS plan: they're pretty much begging the market to use the service. This is analogous to their free MMS plan in non-Delhi/Bombay markets for a long time: they pretty much had to give it away because no one wanted to send MMSes at Rs 5 a pop.

      Finally, most markets tend to reward staying consumers rather than random prepaid customers who use a cellphone for a few days. I'd say if you were living in the US for a longer time you'd have been pleasantly surprised with some of the offers available, including free night+weekend minutes, and free long-distance to selected numbers.

      In broadband access developed nations have lot of lead over developing ones, maybe because to have good connectivity you require undersea cables as most of the servers are in west

      While India definitely needs more fiber, it doesn't use what's available well -- I wrote this in 2002 and obviously things have improved since then (cf Anil Ambani's new FALCON cable) but the lighted capacity ratios haven't(check out how much of FALCON is unlighted). The net result-- even now, 256kbps seems to be the median connect speed for residential DSL in India, when even stodgy old UK gives away 2Mbps connections practically for free, and 16/24Mbps services are becoming common. I know telcos keep a certain level of unlighted capability but given India's population and demand, the sheer amount of unlighted fiber is wasteful IMHO.

      Also, millions of people in India who've ditched their government-supplied copper-line phones for GSM/CDMA/WLL phones from private companies. This bites broadband growth in the back, because these technologies have a low data trasmission limit, which is shared by all subscribers in a given area.

      Realistically, if you want good residential broadband you need decent copper wiring (a concept which MTNL's/BSNL's illiterate field staff don't understand -- which is why most of India's copperline phones cannot carry 8Mbps traffic even though theoretically they could do even more) or decent Ethernet/OFC wiring (and no one's done fiber-to-the-home in India just yet). And technologies like community wifi (and Wimax) are ill-suited to India's dense urban jungles.

    13. Re:Some more facts: by tehcyder · · Score: 1
      people don't really use mobile phones to talk in the UK that often.
      WTF? Have you actually walked along a street in a British town or city?
      Or do Americans literally talk 24 hours a day, in their sleep as well or something? Because if usage is higher in the US than here , I am stunned.
      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    14. Re:Some more facts: by 70Bang · · Score: 1


      6. What, no rollover minutes?

      You got gypped.

    15. Re:Some more facts: by pimpimpim · · Score: 1
      These costs are for landline to mobile, and from prepaid mobile to mobile and for prepaid mobile to landline. I don't think there are many ways to lower the landline to mobile costs, as often mobile numbers are not or only in a limited way included in flatrate packages etc. So landline to mobile is almost always very expensive! Even when I use preselect numbers, it won't get under 10 cent per minute. Calling to US landline or mobile via preselect will cost me about 2 cents, without any difference for landline or mobile. That's how I got the impression that tarifs for mobile phones are probably much less than here.

      Mobile to mobile is a different story. For people with a contract, within the same provider there are options to pay about 1 cent for calls within the network, or there are certain amount of minutes in your package, just as you have there. Probably, as others pointed out, the mobile phone packages are pretty good, and not as restrictive on your mobile phone as Verizon tends to be (from what I've read here on slashdot). I call about one time per day, on average, so a monthly fee package is not profitable for me. This leaves me no choice than a prepaid, and paying absurd per minute costs. Just as in the guy from the UK responding, I end up texting a lot (about 20 cent per message, ridiculous actually, as there is not much bandwith and priority needed for it compared to speech).

      If I go from germany to its neighbor holland, I pay about 1 euro per minute (also if someone calls me). As someone else said (with link) the EU is working on this. Sometimes text messages can also get more expensive outside the country.

      --
      molmod.com - computing tips from a molecular modeling
    16. Re:Some more facts: by petermgreen · · Score: 1

      You would have to expect that the same thing will happen in these new markets. Explosive development in e.g Mumbai followed by a much, much slower growth over the country as a whole. I'd love to see a distribution map of this stuff.
      they key difference in the new markets is that cellphones are coming from a different starting point.

      here in britan landlines are a regulated monopoly that can be obtained anywhere without spending insane sums of money.

      in the emerging markets the cellphones afaict have virtually no comertition outside the main cities.

      --
      note: i'm known as plugwash most places but i screwd up registering that here somehow in the past and now can't register
  4. Ha! by lostngone · · Score: 1

    The cell providers are laughing all the way to the bank(at least in the US). With all this business why are the cell networks in the US so poor.

    1. Re:Ha! by jcr · · Score: 1

      With all this business why are the cell networks in the US so poor.

      There is a disadvantage to early adoption in many cases. US services have a lot of cell network infrastructure from previous generations of cellular technology, and many, many customers who aren't going to ditch their existing phones for something up-to-date overnight.

      -jcr

      --
      The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
  5. Are there enough digits in a phone number? by c0d3r · · Score: 5, Funny

    How can this be if there aren't enough digits in a US phone number:

    1,23-4,56-7,890

    allows ~1.2445679 digits (some rounding error)

    What do class 5 switches allow globally and whats the denomination?

    1. Re:Are there enough digits in a phone number? by wfberg · · Score: 2, Informative

      How can this be if there aren't enough digits in a US phone number

      Because it's a US phone number, and the article is about other, forrin countries as well.

      (MS)ISDN E.164 numbers are 15 digits, including the country code. Even the North American Numbering Plan can be expanded vastly, from 11 digits (the one counts!) to 15; a factor 10,000.

      --
      SCO employee? Check out the bounty
    2. Re:Are there enough digits in a phone number? by Don_dumb · · Score: 5, Funny

      Ladies and gentlemen, the stereotypical American.
      Pity him he doesn't know there is a whole world out there.

      --
      If this were really happening, what would you think?
    3. Re:Are there enough digits in a phone number? by Tim+C · · Score: 1

      Please tell me you don't seriously think that there are 2.5billion mobiles in the US alone. You do realise that that's almost enough for half the planet's population, or about 10 for every single person in the US, right?

    4. Re:Are there enough digits in a phone number? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      FFS, really? RTFA. It's a whole world outside the USA. Moron.

    5. Re:Are there enough digits in a phone number? by aadvancedGIR · · Score: 2, Funny

      I thought there were only 10000 american phone number, isn't 555 US prefix?

    6. Re:Are there enough digits in a phone number? by cerberus4696 · · Score: 0

      555 is a "fake" prefix established for use in movies and TV, where they wouldn't want to accidentally use someone's real phone number.

    7. Re:Are there enough digits in a phone number? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The 555 switch is used by the telco for services. Before 411, you would dial 555-1212 for information in your local area. I would presume that you could still do this to get information in another area code (so 212-555-1212 for NYC information), though whether they are actually in a different area or just know you are expecting info in the area code you used, who knows.

    8. Re:Are there enough digits in a phone number? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I and each of my co-workers have 2 - 3 cells, I'ts not hard to imagine some people having more . . . but ten . . . that's a stretch.

    9. Re:Are there enough digits in a phone number? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ladies and gentlemen, the stereotypical American hater.
      Pity him for he doesn't understand a joke.

    10. Re:Are there enough digits in a phone number? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You know you can take them with you, right?

    11. Re:Are there enough digits in a phone number? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I don't understand the joke either. WTF was funny about it?

    12. Re:Are there enough digits in a phone number? by petermgreen · · Score: 1

      the US isn't the whole world you know!

      global telephone numbers can be up to 15 digits (plus any prefix to dial out of the country you are calling from) and can't start with 0, that makes a possibility of 900,000,000,000,000 telephone numbers.

      however in reality most numbers are shorter than this, e.g. a british number in international form is 2 digit country 10 digit (usually) national significant number. for 12 digits total.

      the bottom line is some countries may need to renumber thier domestic plans to longer numbers but the global standards still leave plenty of room for them to do so.

      --
      note: i'm known as plugwash most places but i screwd up registering that here somehow in the past and now can't register
  6. Leapfrogging by kaysan · · Score: 1

    is the way in which technological innovation (i.e. a cellphone) allows countries to 'skip' older technology and move straight on to the newer ones, thus catching up quicker.

    1. Re:Leapfrogging by aadvancedGIR · · Score: 1

      The contrary example is France, in which cellphone and internet had some initial difficulties because of the cheap and highly reliable payphone system (it worked with prepaid cards so there was no money in them to be stolen) and the minitel (a 1200 baud terminal).

  7. In related developments, by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

    the NSA has increased their data storage capacity to 2.5 billion data-storing nodes.

  8. If you want to be more drammatic by mgblst · · Score: 3, Interesting

    You could say it took millions of year to reach 1 billion connections, since hasn't all of mans endeavours, from fire and the wheel to radio and transistors been moving towards creating mobile phones? Depends on how you look at it.

    1. Re:If you want to be more drammatic by Creedo · · Score: 1

      An interesting comment, since I just got done reading Stephen King's "Cell": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cell_(novel) In that story, cell phones were instruments of a large scale, forced evolution of the human race.

      --
      All that is necessary for the triumph of good is that evil men do nothing.
  9. Re:yeah right by arun_s · · Score: 1
    Compare India (with it's administrative circles, weird government regulations and crappy operators) with something in Europe instead. In fact, India is so far behind on the scale it isn't even funny.
    Oh. That must explain why its second in the list of 'the top ten countries for volume of new connections over the last year' (RTFA).
    I'm from India, the operators are pretty cool here. You have a choice of GSM and CDMA, you're phone isn't locked down by your operator, and I've personally faced no problems with either the tariffs or the coverage.
    --
    I can explain it for you, but I can't understand it for you.
  10. Mobile phones and development by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Leaders / Mobile phones and development

    Less is more
    Jul 7th 2005
    From The Economist print edition

    Mobile phones can boost development in poor countries—if governments let them

    IMAGE (iAfrica)

    IMAGINE a magical device that could boost entrepreneurship and economic activity, provide an alternative to bad roads and unreliable postal services, widen farmers’ access to markets, and allow swift and secure transfers of money. Now stop imagining: the device in question is the mobile phone. Not surprisingly, people in the developing world are clamouring for them, and subscriber growth is booming. The fastest growth rates are to be found in Africa, albeit from a low base. Already, 80% of the world’s population lives within range of a mobile network; but only about 25% have a mobile phone.

    The primary obstacle to wider adoption is the cost of handsets. In the rich world, these typically cost around $200 (though most pay less than this thanks to subsidies from network operators), or less than 1% of the average income per person. In the developing world, in contrast, a $50 handset would account for 14% of the annual income of someone earning $1 a day. So the first step in promoting the adoption of mobile phones, say operators in developing countries, is to reduce the cost of the handsets. Several such schemes are under way: in particular, several operators in developing countries have joined together to aggregate their buying power, and Motorola, the world’s second-largest handset-maker, has agreed to supply up to 6m handsets for less than $40 each (see article). There is already talk of prices falling below $30 next year.

    Industry observers believe cheaper handsets could expand the market by as many as 150m new subscribers a year. As well as boosting economic development in poor countries, this will help to close the “digital divide” between the communications-rich and communications-poor. Governments, you would have thought, would be doing everything in their power to promote the spread of mobile phones.

    But rather than treating mobile phones as an important tool for development, many governments see them instead as an opportunity to impose hefty taxes and milk a fast-growing industry for all it is worth. In both Turkey and Bangladesh, for example, anyone buying a new mobile phone must pay a $15 connection tax. Many countries slap large import duties on handsets and impose special taxes on subscribers and operators. In many cases, these taxes double the cost of acquiring a mobile phone. As handset prices fall, such taxes will become an ever more prominent obstacle to wider adoption.

    Governments should reduce these taxes at once. Indeed, by doing so, they can both speed adoption and increase revenues. High import tariffs discourage legal imports of phones and encourage people to buy them on the black market instead. Reducing such tariffs would boost revenues as legal imports increased. Lower taxes on phone calls would encourage adoption and increase the tax base. It can be done: both Mauritius and India have recently reduced their taxes and tariffs.

    Mobile phones have created more entrepreneurs in Africa in the past five years than anything else, says the boss of one pan-African operator. Promoting their spread requires no aid payments or charity handouts: handset-makers, acting in their own interest, are ready to produce low-cost phones for what they now regard as a promising new market. Mobile operators across the developing world would love to sign up millions of new customers. But if developing countries are to realise the full social and economic benefits of mobile phones, governments must ensure that their policies help, rather than hinder, the wider adoption of this miraculous technology.
     
    ::: yfnET

  11. Yeah, I was thinking of getting one by niceone · · Score: 1

    But if I did get one, I think I might feel obliged to actually go outside {shudders}.

  12. Hmm by gundamstuff · · Score: 0

    That's quite the impressive number, though I'm still keeping my AT&T landline. That way when I need to call 9/11, I won't have a dead battery or Vonage in my way.

    --
    " We don't need to find the weapons of mass destruction we just need to want to find them, that's the way it works!
  13. Emerging nations? by Forge · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Right now I'm working for one of the "culprits" in this phenomenal growth. Digicel allegedly sold 300,000 phones in it's 1st month of operations in Haiti. If you check the CIA Factbook, it basically says this is the worst run country in the western hemisphere. I have been here for 3 months now and I can say it's the worst I have seen.

    Despite that, Somebody sold 300,000 phones in a month. How? Because a prepaid cellphone with free incoming calls is exactly what you need when you are impoverished. Looking for work? Put the number on your resume. Family members in a developed country? Give them the number so they can call you and you can ask for remittances.

    Seriously. That's why it makes sense to sell a U$75 phone for U$25 to someone who had to save for weeks to pay that price.

    So yeah. A nation doesn't even have to be emerging for Cellphones to take off. It could be a textbook case of "How to, not develop".

    PS: Another sign of underdevelopment is when you must import almost your entire technical staff.

    --
    --= Isn't it surprising how badly I spell ?
    1. Re:Emerging nations? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      Because a prepaid cellphone with free incoming calls is exactly what you need when you are impoverished.

      Dude, the _WHOLE_ world works like that, except United States where you seem to be stuck in 1947 telephony-wise. It really doesn't need to be an "impoverished". Unless you count, say, UK, Germany, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Spain, France, Japan, etc, as "impoversished".
    2. Re:Emerging nations? by Forge · · Score: 1

      ohm... I never said this was only for the pore. I said it's what the pore need. I.e. Pore people are much better off if they get clean tapwater too. Dosn't meen it's not great for the rest of us or that developed contries don't have it in abundance.

      --
      --= Isn't it surprising how badly I spell ?
    3. Re:Emerging nations? by mapkinase · · Score: 1
      It could be a textbook case of "How to, not develop".


      This is complete non sequitur. How does it follow from what you have said? It helps people... Besides, people WILL HAVE to make calls some times. Consider two situations:

      1. Maurice does not have a cell phone. He is in a desperate situation that will certainly benefit from calling someone. He does not call
      2. Maurice has a cell phone. He is in the same situation. He calls.
      3. ???
      4. Profit.

      Try also to think out of "phone industry of Haiti" you work for as an indicator of economy developing.
      --
      I do not believe in karma. "Funny"=-6. Do good and forbid evil. Yours, Oft-Offtopic Flamebaiting Troll.
    4. Re:Emerging nations? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Is China (1.3 billion people) part of the whole world? Here, I pay for airtime on my phone, regardless of who initiated the call. Maybe you need to relax a little...

    5. Re:Emerging nations? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Besides, people WILL HAVE to make calls some times. "

      Because those emergency phone calls that you have to make once every two years are really going to make the cellular company a lot of money.

  14. Re:yeah right by Forge · · Score: 2, Informative

    No. That's because India has the 2nd largest population. It's beeten by China.

    A better measure is per capita deployment where some European countries have passed 100% (more people with 2 or more cellphones than people with none at all).

    Or even small "Developing" countries like Jamaica with Over 2 Million Cellphones and a population of 2.7 Million.

    --
    --= Isn't it surprising how badly I spell ?
  15. Lack of infrastructure by ttys00 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Part of the reason mobile phone ownership growing so fast in 3rd world countries is the lack of infrastructure - large expanses of 3rd world countries have no phone lines at all, and a mobile phone is a cheap and easy way to communicate in any language, especially when using recycled handsets from 1st world countries.

    A small village can share a handset, which both facilitates trade and also obtains the best prices for their vegetables in the markets in the surrounding town.

    Also, greater population density in many 3rd world countries allows for more phones per base station (ie. greater economies of scale), and therefore cheaper plans. You'd be surprised at how hard telcos in India and China compete for customers, something telcos in the US have managed to avoid for many years.

    1. Re:Lack of infrastructure by MichaelSmith · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Part of the reason mobile phone ownership growing so fast in 3rd world countries is the lack of infrastructure

      About ten years ago I was shown a factory here in Melbourne where analog cellular phones were being built into bulky units for sale in Chile. The idea is that it is cheaper to put a cellular phone in every house and a base station every 10km or so, than to trench all the way to every house.

  16. So that's where my phone went... by Sting_TVT · · Score: 3, Funny

    Leave a phone on a cafe table..... See it on CNN three days later in Mogadishu

    1. Re:So that's where my phone went... by deleveld · · Score: 1

      You were in a cafe in Mogadishu?

    2. Re:So that's where my phone went... by Sting_TVT · · Score: 1

      nah, cafe in germany. Most of the european stolen cell phones wind up in africa or the middle east repackaged

    3. Re:So that's where my phone went... by dimension6 · · Score: 1

      There's one benefit to owning a CDMA phone!

  17. And the NSA by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    is monitoring every one of them....

  18. Fact:Metcalfe's Law Explains Cell-Phone Popularity by reporter · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Metcalfe's Law explains well why a cellular network grows rapidly. The value of a network grows as the square of the number of members of a network. Here, members are owners of cell phones. As the value increases, more people want to be part of the network. So, more people buy cell phones. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

  19. Cellular Boom ? You are dead on target. by ravee · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I agree wholeheartedly with the article. In India for instance, Now a days where ever you look, you can see people with a cellphone glued to their ear. News channels provide SMS (Short Messaging Service) numbers where the viewers can send messages via their cellphones. And the cellular service doesn't come cheap. It is atleast twice as costly as making calls via landline though deals are available dime a dozen. Sometimes I wonder if all this is really a good thing.

    Somebody should do a detailed study of the negetive effects of using a cellphone.

    --
    Linux Help
    for all things on Linux
    1. Re:Cellular Boom ? You are dead on target. by novus+ordo · · Score: 1

      Getting hit by one? *ducks*

      --
      "You're everywhere. You're omnivorous."
    2. Re:Cellular Boom ? You are dead on target. by tehcyder · · Score: 1
      Somebody should do a detailed study of the negetive effects of using a cellphone
      Dom Joly's already done that. Short version: it turns you into a twat.
      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
  20. Mobile phones get people out of poverty by MosesJones · · Score: 3, Interesting

    There have been a series or articles in the last few years in the Economist about how having mobile phones helps to lift people out of poverty in the developing world. Their view, and I have to say I agree, is that its more important to get people a communication network (mobile phones) than it is to get them a computer.

    Its a genuinely good thing that this is taking off in the developing world to help people create small businesses and to reduce barriers.

    --
    An Eye for an Eye will make the whole world blind - Gandhi
    1. Re:Mobile phones get people out of poverty by Andy+Gardner · · Score: 1

      What a shock a prominent business publication advocates introducing mobile phone networks to developing countries, of course it's for their own good.

    2. Re:Mobile phones get people out of poverty by DamnStupidElf · · Score: 1

      Their view, and I have to say I agree, is that its more important to get people a communication network (mobile phones) than it is to get them a computer.

      The best thing is that the cell phone can double as a (simple) computer. Address books, games, calculators; essentially all the technological benefits of living in a first world economy despite the poor economy. My guess is that the trend will only speed up, and at the far end third world countries will be getting nano-assemblers the same time (or before, due to fewer regulations/NIMBY) as the first world.

      In the present, I also think that third world countries will be among the first to be fully ipv6 networked. How can you handle 3 billion cell phones on standard ipv4 hardware without massive NATs which make them almost useless? The cell network really needs to be recognized as an extension of the Internet, and not just a bunch of clients behind some phone company's NAT box. That will only happen in countries where the infrastructure is new and there aren't the huge vested interests of western phone companies...

    3. Re:Mobile phones get people out of poverty by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      having mobile phones helps to lift people out of poverty

      Is that because their supplier can tell them where to deliver the drugs?

  21. Re:yeah right by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Ok, dumb question here, yet I am serious.
    Why on earth would anyone have more than one cell phone?

  22. Re:yeah right by arun_s · · Score: 1

    Thanks for pointing that out, I was totally off track there :)
    My point was about the parent's comment on the state of the operators and regulations here, and yes, the article's stats aren't a measure of that.

    --
    I can explain it for you, but I can't understand it for you.
  23. Kurzweil was right again by weasel99 · · Score: 3, Interesting
    1. Re:Kurzweil was right again by mapkinase · · Score: 1

      Does anyone else see a problem with the picture in that reference? The format of the chart is quite unfortunate, because one has still to look at the distance between mindsteps on this chart not, say, to the form of the curve. And the fact that several systems are displayed at the same time blurs the picture even more. It is clear from comparison with the chart where mindsteps are generated using a square law. Try it yourself.

      --
      I do not believe in karma. "Funny"=-6. Do good and forbid evil. Yours, Oft-Offtopic Flamebaiting Troll.
  24. Emerging Nations by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's hilarious that the oldest civilizations on this planet like China and India are called "emerging nations"...

    1. Re:Emerging Nations by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      It is only hilarious if you don't have a basic understanding of economic terms. This has no bearing on the "value" of the culture or the depth of the history.

    2. Re:Emerging Nations by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      China has the 4th highest GDP in the world, India 12th. A lot of population behind those figures, but still not exactly coming out of the swamp economically.

  25. Funny... by Belial6 · · Score: 1

    Funny how the anti-cell phone Luddites can be twice as rude as anyone with a cell phone and not even realize it.

    1. Re:Funny... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Funny how "anti-cell phone Luddites" can figure out how to set their phone to vibrate. And awfully tech-aware for a luddite.

  26. Re:yeah right by Don_dumb · · Score: 2, Informative

    Business and pleasure.

    --
    If this were really happening, what would you think?
  27. Re:yeah right by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Many people in Europe travel between countries often, and keep numbers in multiple places to avoid long distance and roaming fees.

    Two options exist for them. Switching SIM cards when crossing the borders or having multiple phones. The obvious advantage with multiple phones is having all the numbers active for receiving calls and messages (SMS is usually free to recieve even when roaming).

  28. The great thing about wireless by smilindog2000 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    is it's super-low up-front costs, not for the hand-sets, but for an operator to offer initial coverage.

    With wired service, you have to invest up-front, burying cable throughout a population center before you can acquire your first customer. With wireless, you put up one tower, set it for maximum range, and open shop.

    A single WiMax tower can reach 40 miles in radius. After Katrina, Intel donated $5M in hardware, and was basically able to cover the Gulf Coast. Bell South says they'll needs between $700M and $900M, and they're still not done with repairs. That cost might be fair, but it shows the advantages in bringing in wireless cheaply. Here's an Intel link:

    http://www.intel.com/technology/magazine/communica tions/hurricane-relief-1105.htm

    I think we should be using cheap wireless technology for IP based emergency communications, enabling people to help each other so they wont have to wait for FEMA to arrive. Check out what hams do for free:

    http://eng.usna.navy.mil/~bruninga/aprs.html

    A system built on the Internet model might enable neighbors to help each other, which is basically required after a mass disaster, since any emergency response team will be overwhelmed. Do you know how you'd find your neighbors after a disaster? How would they find you?

    --
    Beer is proof that God loves us, and wants us to be happy.
    1. Re:The great thing about wireless by Calinous · · Score: 2, Informative

      Intel was able to invest 5M and offer coverage to the Gulf Coast. BellSouth will invest $700M (or $1B) and get coverage, offering a total bandwidth maybe 2 000 times more than Intel could offer with their $5M. It's all in what you want - if what you want is minimal access, those $5M goes a long way - if you want something more bandwidth intensive, you're out of luck

    2. Re:The great thing about wireless by MichaelSmith · · Score: 1
      A system built on the Internet model might enable neighbors to help each other, which is basically required after a mass disaster, since any emergency response team will be overwhelmed. Do you know how you'd find your neighbors after a disaster? How would they find you?

      By rights GSM phones should be able to work as point to point communicators over short ranges. In a disaster this would help, both when the cell goes down, and when the network is overloaded.

      Unfortunately there is no way for the network operator to make money this way so the feature does not exist.

  29. No Ludditism here... by hummassa · · Score: 1

    Mind you, I am owner of two cell phones and so much tech gear that takes me 15 minutes to enter a bank branch. But I put them on vibracall when I'm at a restaurant or movie theater, and I go to the bathroom or outside to take a call -- IF it's imperative that I take the call. I own a cell phone for the last 15 years and NEVER anyone "sssh"'d me. So, excuse me if I see a guy my age taking a call during the best part of a movie "no, dear, I'm still at the movie, yes, I'll bring home some Chinese, how is your sister going ..." out loud. Come on.

    --
    It's better to be the foot on the boot than the face on the pavement. ~~ tkx Kadin2048
    1. Re:No Ludditism here... by jamesh · · Score: 1
      NEVER anyone "sssh"'d me

      Just this evening i was sssh'd by my 17 month old son who was trying to watch "The Goodies" when i got a phone call :)

      Can't remember being sssh'd before that though.
    2. Re:No Ludditism here... by Patrik_AKA_RedX · · Score: 1
      I own a cell phone for the last 15 years and NEVER anyone "sssh"'d me.
      So basicly you're 2m tall, muscular build, tatoo'ed arms, piercings. A general agressive look. Well I wouldn't "sssh" you either.
  30. Re:yeah right by anothy · · Score: 1

    the administrative circle thing and restrictions on operators in multiple states are pretty bizarre, though. there really is a lot of unnecessary bureaucracy in the system there (or "here", as that's where i am right now).

    --

    i speak for myself and those who like what i say.
  31. Re:yeah right by bytesex · · Score: 1

    Many people have a cellphone of their own and supplied with one by their work. They won't give up the one they had, because they might change jobs and the family, friends and relatives all have that number, and the company will insist on supplying them with one, because they have a policy about these things, or the number comes with the position, or whatnot. This happened to me, and I'm no exception.

    --
    Religion is what happens when nature strikes and groupthink goes wrong.
  32. 2.5 billion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    2.5 Billion, eh? That sure is alot of cellphones. Gives me a headache just thinking about it. Sort of a burning, pulsating headache...

  33. Something similar is true for public transport by Ogemaniac · · Score: 1

    which is a major reason it is so hard for the US to get it off the ground. Building a train between X and Y is not very worthwhile if X and Y do not connect anywhere.

  34. One for work, other for personal calls. by hummassa · · Score: 1

    So you can turn one off and let the other on, and always know what is going on. And sometimes the firm gives you a "work-calls-only" enforced policy cell, and you still have yours for personal calls.

    --
    It's better to be the foot on the boot than the face on the pavement. ~~ tkx Kadin2048
  35. service... by u235meltdown · · Score: 1

    and I still can't get any service at my house

  36. Africa Report - Democratic benefits by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Another benefit of mobile phones becoming more common (I believe I read this in a magazine called "The Africa Report") is that reports of centralized/governmental corruption spread much quicker. This helps the population in nominally democratic countries keep tabs on their representatives.

  37. 2.5m more and the prophecy of... by avasol · · Score: 1

    Ghost in the Shell will become real! ;-) Funny how it's called 'cell' too. So many cells, what will http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaia_theory think of next time....

  38. emerging by john_uy · · Score: 1

    it is not surprising - emerging nations have people without mobile phones
    developing nations are saturated with some having more than 100% penetration

    after everybody has mobile phones, let see where they will see growth. probably aliens?

    --
    Live your life each day as if it was your last.
    1. Re:emerging by vidarh · · Score: 1
      It's not only that. Cellphone usage in countries like Nigeria is growing far faster than in a rich but low usage country like the US simply because in Nigeria as in many other developing countries it is hard and expensive to get landlines, and the landline services are unreliable.

      The reason landlines are cheap in industrialised countries is because the telcos have had a hundred years to amortise the cost of laying down copper lines, whereas countries like Nigeria have a very underdeveloped network of phone lines, and still struggle with an economy that is so weak that the average income is low enough to make it economically worthwhile for a lot of people to steal copper phone lines for the scrap metal value.

      Cellphone networks are simply cheaper to build out and operate than landlines when they don't have to compete with an existing infrastructure.

      Hence Nigeria's number of about 20 million cellphones vs. ca. 1.4 million landlines in a population of about 130 million.

  39. Related Side Point by NexFlamma · · Score: 1
    With that many cellular connections and users, you would think that by now we would have some solid data as to whether they cause the purported issues with irradiation and cancer that people would have you believe, and yet we have no evidence to support the idea that cellular phones have any carcinogenic properties.

    Two possibilities come to mind;
    • Studies simply aren't being performed on this topic (which I doubt, as there are many groups out there who would love to be able to link something this widely used with dangerous cancers, such as the media and environmental activists)
    • There really is no danger of getting cancer from using a cellular (more likely, as with over a billion connections, we have yet to hear of anyone who actually got cancer and died due to phone usage)
    Sorry to be somewhat off-topic, but the FUD surrounding cellular phones (and the fact that it's repeated to me ad nauseam by some of my more luddite co-workers) makes me rather upset.
    1. Re:Related Side Point by MichaelSmith · · Score: 1
      There really is no danger of getting cancer from using a cellular (more likely, as with over a billion connections, we have yet to hear of anyone who actually got cancer and died due to phone usage)

      A phone might deliver a couple of watts of microwave radiation, but go up the spectrum to higher energy and we bathe ourselves in kilowatts of infrared all the time. If microwaves caused cancer what should radiated heat do to you?

      We know that the worst you can get from IR is dry and possibly dead skin. No mutation, no tumors. Microwaves must be safer by comparison.

    2. Re:Related Side Point by swv3752 · · Score: 1

      IR gets stopped by our skin. Microwaves penetrate to our internal organs. Ever seen a potatoe explode in a Microwave oven?

      --
      Just a Tuna in the Sea of Life
    3. Re:Related Side Point by nasch · · Score: 1
      Two possibilities come to mind;
      Third possibility: low-level long-term exposure can cause problems. Obviously we would not know about this yet, and it is not possible to extrapolate from short-term intense exposure to long-term low-level, so we have no way of finding out early.
    4. Re:Related Side Point by petermgreen · · Score: 1

      tbh we will probablly never really know, we know that if they have any affect it is rare and/or only built up after long term usage.

      and its difficult to study because
      1: most people won't itemise thier cell use for a researcher (even if they could) and the cell companies are hardly going to hand the info over.
      2: controlling for other factors would be a bitch given that cellphone usage tends to go with social status.

      With stats you can prove to a certain degree of confidence that its less than a certain level of affect but proving it is no affect at all is basically impossible.

      also most studies performed by interest groups are flawed studies from tiny samples that ultimately prove nothing.

      --
      note: i'm known as plugwash most places but i screwd up registering that here somehow in the past and now can't register
    5. Re:Related Side Point by NexFlamma · · Score: 1

      Agreed. So, given those points, you have to conclude that either there is no lasting effect or that it is so difficult to quantify as to be virtually neglible for any real person.

  40. 2.5 billion phones for 5 billion people? by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 1

    Take the number with a very large pinch of salt. Even accounting for multiple cell phone owning road warriars, the number 2.5 billion connection seems too large. I suspect GSM assoc is counting every SIM cards that were manufactured as a "connection". It must be including all the expired accounts, expired prepaid cards etc.

    --
    sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
    1. Re:2.5 billion phones for 5 billion people? by arachnoprobe · · Score: 2, Informative

      Connections means "calls", not "phones".

    2. Re:2.5 billion phones for 5 billion people? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I suspect GSM assoc is counting every SIM cards that were manufactured as a "connection". It must be including all the expired accounts, expired prepaid cards etc.

      That's quite unlikely. They probably add up the number of customers of the different wireless networks. And while for prepaid cards there is indeed some uncertainty on what has to be considered an active customer, network operators ususally have the policy of clearing SIM cards from their customer base that have not been used for a certain time. This is due to the fact that (while having a high number of customers is nice) an important economic figure is the average revenue per customer, and you don't want that to be spoiled by a large number of customers with 0 revenue.

    3. Re:2.5 billion phones for 5 billion people? by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 1
      You mean there were 2.5 billion cell phone calls last year? That number is too small [*]. 2.5 billion active cell phones all over the world, seems to be a high number. 2.5 billion cell phone calls per year seems to be a low number. Hope someone has the time, energy and the inclination to dig the definition of the GSM Assoc's "connections" and the correctness of the numbers reported.

      [*] Quick estimate: {1 in 4 in USA+Europe+Aus+NZ with cell phone & 1 in 10 in India+China with cell phone} = 450 million phones. 2.5 billion calls per year= 1 phone call every two months.

      --
      sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
    4. Re:2.5 billion phones for 5 billion people? by nick1000 · · Score: 1

      Actually, its more like {1 in 2 in USA+Europe+China & 1 in 4 in India} = 1.25 billion
      The question is can the rest of the world account for the remaining 1.25 billion. But if we take into account that the number in Europe + USA would be actually higher (esp. Europe). I think it is quite probable that there are 2.5 billion cellular phones are operational at any given time.

      And if you see the title of TFA there are more than 2.5 billions cellular lines in the world not connections as /. summary states..

    5. Re:2.5 billion phones for 5 billion people? by vidarh · · Score: 1
      Or you could see the CIA world factbook, which shows that your estimate is ridiculously far off. Note that while the CIA world factbook lists ca. 1.7billion cellphones, a lot of the numbers are from 2004 and 2003.

      Even in the US the coverage is more than 50%, and in many European countries it's close to 100%. There are actually at least a couple of countries with more than one cellphone subscription per person (I think Finland and either Taiwan or South Korea, but I may be mistaken).

  41. Not really, but thanks by hummassa · · Score: 1

    174cm, average-to-large-bones build, slightly overweight, always in jeans and black t-shirts, pierced years but don't use an earring since I married 9 years ago, some white hair in the sides. Not threatening IMHO. No, I just behave properly.

    --
    It's better to be the foot on the boot than the face on the pavement. ~~ tkx Kadin2048
  42. Re:Fact:Metcalfe's Law Explains Cell-Phone Popular by cowbutt · · Score: 2, Insightful
    Metcalfe's Law explains well why a cellular network grows rapidly.

    Not really, as you can dial into and out of the cellular network from/to an existing landline network.

    People buy mobile phones because they see value in them; whether that's witnessing first hand the usefulness of being able to be contacted (nearly) anywhere on the planet, or simply being seen to be important enough to have a mobile phone. The value isn't really brought from the network itself, though.

  43. Why is US service so bad? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    That was my first question too. I've got to think that the cost of equipment is the same in the US as overseas - so the economics can't be all that different. But the monthly rate in the US ($35/mo for a low end plan) would be impossibly expensive in a developing nation's economy. How can it be that much cheaper overseas? I'm sure there are differences in the quality of service (building adequate numbers of towers in urban areas, or building in marginal areas), but coverage in the US is still limited (especially in the West).

    1. Re:Why is US service so bad? by yoastertoaster · · Score: 1

      In the country I live we've got a couple of major providers, each of them having their own physical network. Each one of these networks has a coverage of at least 95%. I'm sure that's a situation stimulating healthy competition (assuming there's no price fixing). How's the situation in the US? Did the providers split the pie and charge whatever they like in their piece of it? Or do you have at least a couple of providers to choose from. I can also imagine there being big differences between urban and rural areas concerning this.

  44. the gsm org doesn't agree with these figures.. by billmcnamara · · Score: 0

    ticker counter at http://www.gsmworld.com/index.shtml reports a mere 2 billion (If i count the 0's right) reminds me of the daily number of guinness pints consumed clock counter in the guinness brewery in dublin..

    1. Re:the gsm org doesn't agree with these figures.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ticker counter at http://www.gsmworld.com/index.shtml reports a mere 2 billion

      The ticker just reports the number of GSM/3GSM (AKA UMTS) users. 2.5 billion is the total number of mobile phones, including all other technologies besides GSM/UMTS.

  45. Definition by IAmGarethAdams · · Score: 1
    Not surprisingly, the countries with fastest growth are the 'emerging nations.'
    Not surprisingly, a term is defined by its definition
  46. Please don't call it viral! by Chemisor · · Score: 1

    Please do not call cellular technology "viral". Everyone knows that this word is only chosen for its negative connotation. Real viruses can spread accidentally, while a voluntary act is required to make a cell connection. It's such an old, often repeated argument that it is a wonder that people still fail to understand it!

    1. Re:Please don't call it viral! by Alchemist253 · · Score: 1

      Never mind that real viruses aren't composed of cells, either!

  47. So, on how many of those connections by hcob$ · · Score: 1

    is everyone saying... "What? I lost you there for a second." or "Your phone is acting funny, call me back when you're not in a bad area."

    --
    Cliff Claven
    K.E.G. Party Chairman
    Founding Leader of: Koncerned for Egalitarin Governance
  48. duh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
    . Not surprisingly, the countries with fastest growth are the 'emerging nations.'"


    thats because everyone who is not in an emerging nation already has one...
  49. Moo by Chacham · · Score: 1, Troll

    It took 20 years to reach 1 billion connections, three years to reach 2 billion connections

    Wow, they hit two billion even before they hit one billion. Now that's fast.

    1. Re:Moo by GweeDo · · Score: 1

      Isn't it obvious that they meant it took 20 years to hit 1 million, then three years after that to hit 2?

    2. Re:Moo by Chacham · · Score: 1

      Sort of. But that is no excuse for missing words like "another".

      And, the other meaning is that they got better and restarted fresh the second time to do it faster the secodn time, as in "he ran one mile on thirty minutes, and then two miles in twenty minutes", which is taken to mean that he has gotten considerably better.

  50. Remember... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    KASHWACK=NO-FO

  51. Bollocks by EnglishTim · · Score: 2, Insightful

    That makes no sense at all. Huge numbers are already connected to the phone network via their landlines. The reason mobiles are so popular in emerging nations is that it's much cheaper to set up a cell in an area and sell people mobiles than it is to lay cable to everybody's house.

  52. How many times do we have to go over this? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    When you have a country half the size of the US but with nearly 4 times the population how is it surprising that you have better cell coverage? This is getting really old having to re-explain this to every dimwit that comes along.
     
    BTW: I hear the cellular coverage in Siberia really sucks, the same with Antartica.

  53. Ahh the cause of global warming has been found by thorkyl · · Score: 1

    Ok folks, we now know what is causing global warming.

    It's the 2.5 billion microwave ovens running around the world.

    Let all turn off the cell phones for a week and cause an ice age.

    --
    If a frog can jump 3 foot how far can a toad jump?

    --
    -- I am the NRA, enough said...
  54. Re:Fact:Metcalfe's Law Explains Cell-Phone Popular by thesandtiger · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Not only is what you're saying not a fact, it's a complete misapplication of Metcalfe's idea.

    People who had a landline were already connected to the network - getting a cell gives no value from the viewpoint of giving access to the network.

    The primary reason cell use has spread so much - specifically in "emerging" nations - is because it is MUCH cheaper to set up a cellular system and spread access than it is to do with landlines.

    Another big reason would be the mix of convenience and quality of service. In my case, I ditched my landline 2 years ago because it was pointless. I like having a phone with me all the time. If I want to be unavailable, I can put it on silent mode. A phone that sits at home - a place where I spend maybe 4 waking hours a day - just seemed pointless. I don't think I'm the only person who thinks that way.

    My hope is that since cells are now virtually everywhere, people who used to feel the need to talk at the top of their lungs to let everyone know they had one will now see it as a sign of class to speak softly on them. I am doing my best to encourage people to do just that - when I am on the bus or train and someone is having a LOUD conversation on their phone, I will look at them raptly, and, if they ever fall silent, I will say "Oooh, what's he saying now?" When they inevitably say something along the lines of "this is a private conversation" I explain that, at the volume they were speaking, it was anything but. Of course, I say it with a great deal of charm, so I have yet to be bopped in the nose.

    --
    Since I can't tell them apart, I treat all ACs as the same person.
  55. Do You Like Irony by aplusjimages · · Score: 1

    I work at a mobile content company making music ringtones, video ringtones, and wallpapers. I don't own a cell phone and have never owned a cell phone. I don't even know how to work one. That all may change this weekend because I think I'm going to go buy one, so make it 2,500,000,001 mobile connections.

    --
    Can I bum a sig?
    1. Re:Do You Like Irony by tehcyder · · Score: 1
      I work at a mobile content company making music ringtones, video ringtones, and wallpapers.
      If you had anything to do with that fucking crazy frog, I swear I will track you down and ruin your life.
      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
  56. Re:yeah right by Zenaku · · Score: 3, Funny
    I've always kinda wondered why nobody has marketed a phone (or maybe they have and I've never seen it) that has 2 slots for SIM cards. It would ring for either number, and you'd be able to switch the one used for outgoing calls via the menu or a shortcut key. Seems like there would be a market for it, but I've never seen such a thing.

    Oh, and if I'm the first one to think of it, then PATENT PENDING! Patent pending, patent pending, patent pending.

    Patent pending.

    --
    If fate makes you a motorcycle, you become a motorcycle.
  57. Re:yeah right by LocoMan · · Score: 1

    My brother has two mainly because he does most of his business trough the phone, and here in Venezuela there are two major cell phone companies (well, more than two, but the other ones don't have countrywide coverage yet and neither of them work where I live), and both of them have rates that are a LOT cheaper for calls within the same cell phone company, so it's cheaper for him to have one of each and use them depending on who's he calling to.

    Also, it has become a rather popular business to buy several cell phones and then rent them on the street for people to make calls (kinda like public phones), and according to a friend that does that, it's quite profitable if you use the free minutes plans, plus you get enough "points" to change or get new cell phones from the operators at least once a year for free... :)

  58. Re:Fact:Metcalfe's Law Explains Cell-Phone Popular by Eccles · · Score: 1

    Part of the "talking at top of lungs" is due to the lack of feedback within many phones (i.e. the microphone is not echoed in the speaker). If the meatheads who build the things would just make it provide this feedback, people would probably be quieter.

    --
    Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a real useful invention.
  59. Swoooosh! by Comboman · · Score: 1

    That sound you just heard was a joke going over your head.

    --
    Support Right To Repair Legislation.
  60. The Future of the Wireless Industry - Growth by geerbox · · Score: 1

    Warning: Shameless bump/plug ahead :P

    I spent two months investigating the wireless industry for its potential, and came up with a report denoting, in it's conclusion, the explosive potential yet to be had in the wireless (and by this, wireless telecommunications) industry.

    The VERY READABLE (complete with many pictures!) report can be found here:
    http://www.eugenechen.ca/files/coop_no_2_a_mobile_ future_small-size.pdf

    http://www.eugenechen.ca/index.php?pagename=wirele ss

    (PDF is recommended - the PNGs actually take longer to download than the whole PDF)
  61. Slashdotted? by PhakeDC · · Score: 1

    You mofo geeks have done it again! But it's not like anybody RTFA or anything.

  62. Ahem! by Plutonite · · Score: 1

    Grand-Parent was joking. or something.

  63. Like a religion, not like a virus. by Medievalist · · Score: 1
    "It appears that humankind has managed to spread cellular technology like a virus..."
    Wrong. Despite propaganda about lifestyle choices, and despite the perceived indispensibility of cell phones, there is a voluntary component to cell phone use that simply does not reflect the reality of disease organism propagation. Sloppy metaphors result from sloppy thinking, and you don't want to get any of that on you.

    Cellular technology has spread like a religion.
    1. Re:Like a religion, not like a virus. by demmer · · Score: 0

      no.
      no, really.
      no.

      you are just wrong. i thought about this a while now. my perspective: i was the last but one in my class to get a cellphone. that was about 7 years ago. today: the cphone is my always-on connection when i have no internet to get my work-emails, or need to organize my cinema dates or whatever. mobile phones are not a virus and not a religion: they are an artificaial extension of the human communication organs (voice/brain/listening).

      cell phones, and especially: LIVING with cell phones could imo be seen as a step in the human evolution, because a basic need: the need to communicate, has extended its range enourmously.. unbelievably.. combined with the internet: globally, indefinetly.

      its not cancer, not a virus, not evil, its one of the first steps to human-machine combination, which some people see as the most likely way of future human EVOLUTION.

  64. Re:yeah right by Blackneto · · Score: 1

    It's possible. The carrier has to set it up. evidently no one in the US is doing i
    A link for you:

    http://forums.mobiledia.com/topic27924.html

    --
    Ursula Andress, Catherine Deneuve, and Charo, twice...
  65. Re:yeah right by 70Bang · · Score: 1


    And how many of those 2M cell phones are disposable?

    I think there's some monkey business with the statistics (trot out Twain).

    I'm certain there's some differences between "permanent" and "disposable" affecting the overall total.

    I do have a good cell phone story: even though they are personal cell phones, the missus gets a discount because of where she works - word of mouth to co-workers & whatnot. Anyway, a couple of years ago, we decided to introduce my in-laws[1] who are (now) in their mid-70s. We handed down[2] one of our phones when our contract ended, but put them on our plan to keep an eye on them. They'd take it in the car with them and use it to call us when they were running late to meet us at a restaurant (they're about eighty miles away). The problem? They'd turn the phone on, make the call, then turn the phone back off to conserve energy, even though the phone was plugged in via adaptor. Obviously, they came from the Depression Era, so everything has been critical. It took awhile for them to realize powering the phone is like removing a spoonful of water from the ocean, but they've gone ahead and obtained one for each of them.
    ______________________________________
    [1] I pity those who have a monster in law, or a mother|father in law they just tolerate. I grew up in an abused house. I've got a Dad and a second Mom. I'd tell Mom about being able to lie on my back on their couch and fade before I could finish a breath (and I can't sleep on my back). I told Mom it was a soft place to fall (see: Dr. Phil). She told me it was a nice couch. It took a little bit to get her to understand it's where the couch was, not the couch itself.

    [2] I can't figure out why people turn in their old phones for nothing, even bringing accessories later when left behind, is beyond me. Most carriers don't give you a trade-in and resell them. We usually give them to friends who don't want to spring for a cheap phone with no features or not-for-profits. At least you can get a tax deduction.

  66. Will Asian Telcos Takeover the World ??? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Not surprisingly, the countries with fastest growth are the 'emerging nations.'"

    Check this out, how aggressive some Asian Telcos are. Will these telcos takeover the world due to their low cost operational experience and yet remain profitable ?

  67. 2.5 billion? Seems short ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Does that include neurons?

  68. Re:yeah right by Zenaku · · Score: 1

    Yes, but why should the carrier have to do it? Someone could easily manufacture a phone that is not locked to a particular carrier, which hosts 2 completely different SIM cards. The two lines could even be with different carriers. What I am thinking of here has nothing to do with carriers. From a purely hardware standpoint, it shouldn't be hard to do this. It would be like having two different phones, except they are in the same shell and share the same screen, buttons, speakers, and microphone, etc.

    --
    If fate makes you a motorcycle, you become a motorcycle.
  69. Cell phone usage by bcmbyte · · Score: 1

    Hello, thanks for inviting me to this forum, My name is "George" and it's been 21 months, 4 days and 5 hours since I have had a cell phone. It was hard at first, not having a cell phone, I went through withdrawl symtoms, my hands hurt, I had hot flashes, and seeing some one else use a cell phone made me dizzy. Now thanks to groups like this (Cell Phone User Anomoyous) I am cell phone free. I am no longer tied down by the man, I am free, no longer can the corporate weenies contact me at a whim, I am free, oh thank god I am free.

  70. Re:Fact:Metcalfe's Law Explains Cell-Phone Popular by gordyf · · Score: 1

    I've never owned a cell phone that *didn't* do this...

  71. Speed of change by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Does anyone know the chart that indicates the speed of change over time.

    So in the same way the number of connections has gone up from 1 to 2 billion so quickly as has the adoption of the internet etc has sped up technological progress.

    Apparently its a well know MIT chart over time but Ive googled it using the full extent of my lateral brain which isnt much so any one who knows what im rattling on about shout now!

    Thanks

  72. Dibs on the next "AI takes over the world" movie by vanyel · · Score: 1

    How many neural connections are there in a brain? More than a couple billion, but that never stopped Hollywood before...

  73. Re:Fact:Metcalfe's Law Explains Cell-Phone Popular by maxume · · Score: 1

    The 'seen as important' ship has sailed. Anybody who wants a cell phone has it.

    --
    Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
  74. Re:yeah right by lysergic.acid · · Score: 1

    Well, sometimes drug dealers will own a personal cell and then use a pre-paid phone that's constantly changed for handling "business" ...or so I hear.

  75. Cheap compared to the US, though by RockyMountain · · Score: 1

    Not sure about the cell-vs-landline comparison, but European mobile prices sure seem cheap compared to US ones.

    Comparing per-minute costs is very misleading. For many users like myself, per-minute costs are almost irrelevant, because the monthly fees (or expired unused minutes in the case of prepaid) dominate. When you take all costs into account, European prices are _WAY_ lower, even though the European per-minute domestic airtime prices are much higher than their US counterparts. At least for my usage pattern.

    I use local prepaid SIM cards when I travel to Europe and Africa, and find them remarkably cheap compared to the US. In the US, because prepaid plans here have very short shelf-lives on their minutes, I'm forced to use a monthly plan.

    The main difference I see is that in Europe (a) Monthly rates are somewhat lower than the US, for the same number of included minutes, (b) Monthly rates have a lower entry-level than the US (i.e. you can pay less if you only need fewer minutes, if you wish), and (c) prepaid minutes have a much longer shelf-life, if you choose your carrier carefully, so you can actually use them up before you have to pay for more(*).

    All of the above make European mobile usage far cheaper than the US at least for users like me who don't make a lot of calls every month.

    Of course, this is not applicable to everyone: I guess there may be some high usage levels at which US prices reach parity with Europe, or even drop below European prices. But certainly not for me.

    (*) US cell providers have a trick to guarantee a constant stream of revenue from prepaid users. They offer minutes in bundles of various sizes. Only the very largest bundles have decent shelf-lives (typically 6-12 months) and relatively low cost per minute (say 12c). All smaller bundles have _very_ short shelf lives (say 30-60 days), and much higher cost per minute (say 50c). This makes pre-paid pretty much useless in the US for anyone who uses their phone infrequently, because of the high cost of paying for all those minutes they never use.

    1. Re:Cheap compared to the US, though by pimpimpim · · Score: 1
      For frequent callers, the EU might be cheaper, I don't know that much about the US system and are not a frequent caller anyway. My post was written as a prepaid user, so that might indeed change the picture.

      As for lifetime of the prepaid shelf-live, in holland there are eternal prepaid plans, your money can stay valid for as long as your phone is still in use. If it's not used (e.g. recieved a call) for a year or so they cut if off of course, but anyway else your money will stay valid. Very nice.

      As for buying prepaid SIM cards when in Europe. Recently, I wanted to buy a prepaid phone in Germany and found out that the regulation has changed, about 3 months ago. Before, you only needed a valid pass to get a prepaid phone or card, but now you also have to show the certificate that you got when you registered your residence in germany in the town-hall of your hometown. I don't know what they want to reach by this, but it will make it harder to avoid these huge roaming costs. Not so nice.

      --
      molmod.com - computing tips from a molecular modeling
  76. Yep... by hummassa · · Score: 1

    I noticed, but ... decided to make it clear :-) Besides, it wasn't a very good joke :-)

    --
    It's better to be the foot on the boot than the face on the pavement. ~~ tkx Kadin2048
  77. Re:yeah right by petermgreen · · Score: 1

    hmm, does he carry a gun too or travel with bigass bodygaurds? it would seem to me that renting cellphones on the street like that was almost asking to be robbed.

    --
    note: i'm known as plugwash most places but i screwd up registering that here somehow in the past and now can't register
  78. Re:yeah right by LocoMan · · Score: 1

    Well, in my friend's case, he's on a very transitated place right in front of a beach, and he closes before nigthfall... I've seen a couple here that are still open for a few more hours agter nightfall but they're next to very transitated fast food places. I'd believe they'd get robbed here and then, though... or most likely end up paying some protection money instead.. :)

  79. Re:yeah right by QuaZar666 · · Score: 1

    While I have not seen a phone with two sim slots, I have seen addons for some phones that will let you use two sim cards and you just have to turn off the phone and back on to use the other card. kinda nifty if I had a use for something like that.

  80. Non-resident can't get prepaid in Germany? by RockyMountain · · Score: 1

    > For frequent callers, the EU might be cheaper,

    That I'm not sure of. But for _infrequent_ callers, the EU is _definitely_ cheaper than the US. I know that because I'm an infrequent caller in both. In the UK, anyway, you can still buy a prepaid card with reasonably long shelf-life and use the minutes only when you need them. (In the US, that's impossible. You have to keep paying to keep the phone alive regardless of whether you chose a prepaid or monthly plan). Of course, I may be overgeneralizing to the whole of Europe. I only really know about a few countries first hand, and only the UK recently.

    > but now you also have to show the certificate that you got when you registered your
    > residence in germany in the town-hall of your hometown.

    I hadn't heard that before. That's quite alarming. You can't have a local cell phone unless you're a resident of the country! If that idea spreads to other countries, it's curtains for affordable communications while travelling. What a terrible, tourism-hostile policy! You described it as a "regulation", so I assume it's a law, rather than just a misguided dumb decision by one carrier?

    Do you know if this is a German regulation, or is it something to do with the EU government, in which case it will apply all over Europe?

    1. Re:Non-resident can't get prepaid in Germany? by pimpimpim · · Score: 1
      Sorry for the late reaction. I encountered this 'rule' for all prepaid phones at a Mediamarkt, the most popular electronics discounter in Germany. According to this german blog it is only in the contract of one of the network providers, E-plus (either the "Personalausweis" you have as a german citizen, or for foreigners a "Reisepass mit Meldebescheinigung", meaning that they have to show to be living in germany). Maybe it was a single action of (that) Mediamarkt, and you can still buy prepaid with your passport anywhere else, I didn't find any other traces of this action on the net.

      Addition: at this webshop, you have to show your "meldebescheinigung" of you're an EU citizen living in germany, and if you are not a EU citizen, you have to show a visum which is at least 2 years valid after the date of buying (!)

      I have no idea if this is EU-general or not. Couldn't find any information. Unfriendly it is at least, not only for tourists, I spent about an hour waiting in queue at the mobile phone desk, only to hear about this new rule. Every five minutes the alarm of their show models went off as well, buying there was always an unpleasent experience, though! :)

      --
      molmod.com - computing tips from a molecular modeling
  81. cellphones not directly linked to users by CarpetShark · · Score: 1

    Hmm. It seems to me that everyone in my family has owned at least a few mobiles so far. With upgrades, and boredom, and losses, it's not hard to figure out how there can be billions of cellphones when not everyone actually has a cellphone in the developed world, never mind the third world.

  82. SPREADS LIKE a religion, not IS a religion by Medievalist · · Score: 1

    I didn't say cell phones were viruses (or virii for that matter) or even a religion. I didn't say they were cancer or evil either. I did say something about sloppy thinking, though.