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Will the Wii Work?
Today BusinessWeek is running an article asking Will Nintendo's Wii Strategy Score? With the Tokyo Game Show this week, they run down the trials facing Nintendo's little-box-that-could both here in the States, and in Japan. From the article: "Few expect truly dedicated gamers to choose the Wii over the PS3 or Xbox. And ultimately, the advantage may go to Sony. Yuta Sakurai, an analyst at Nomura Securities in Tokyo, expects the PS3 to sell 71 million units by 2011, compared with 40 million units for the Wii. Microsoft, meanwhile, is planning a stripped-down version of the Xbox without a hard-disk drive and other accessories that will cost about $250 in Japan, where the U.S. software maker has endured disappointing results."
Wii isn't targetted at "dedicated" gamers - it's for casual gamers or people who haven't tried gaming before. It might be a shot in the arm for the console industry as a whole, in fact. Heck, I haven't owned a console since the NES, and I'm thinking of getting a Wii ... I just wish they'd called it the Revolution instead :)
expects the PS3 to sell 71 million units by 2011, compared with 40 million units for the Wii
As everyone knows the PS3 will be sold at a loss throughout most of its lifetime, while the Wii will be at an unknown profit through its lifetime. I'd say thats pretty successful if they sell anywhere in that area. Even if they only have $1 profit per console thats a lot more profit than -xx million.
"What is Internet Explorer 7? Are you saying we can't access the normal internet?" - I love tech support. Really.
...since Wii-glorifying articles.
We're seeing quite a few articles in that style right now, and I predict we'll see several more before the Wii launches. Creating controversy is an easy way to get hits. And controversy is easily generated by suggesting that a point that was generally considered to be long-established ("THE WII WILL BE THE BEST THING SINCE SLICED BREAD!!!") may be incorrect ("...but will it work in the marketplace?!").
> Few expect truly dedicated gamers to choose the Wii over the PS3 or Xbox. And ultimately, the advantage may go to Sony.
The very point of Nintendo's strategy is that the truly dedicated gamer won't be their core audience and in fact only a small fragment of their audience. This seems like a non-issue to me.
Basilisk Digital
...yet I've only ever heard bad news about the PS3. The Wii is the first console I've ever been excited about, simply because it's meant for my gaming style: multiplayer, social fun.
ADVANTAGE SONY? Though the Wii doesn't boast all the features and processing firepower of its rivals, Nintendo believes its easy-to-use controller will give it an edge. The Wii's wireless controllers can be moved through the air like a virtual sword, tennis racket, or weapon to pinpoint targets in a game or rifle through the Wii channel menu.
You must provide enjoyable gameplay and a wide variety of game selections. Gamers do not simply choose a console for its controllers. To base your sales on the controllers is stupid.
Nintendo is a staple of life for many gamers. Mario and Zelda are characters they grew up with. Even if it wasn't for the innovative controller, the low price point alone almost guarantees that many gamers will pick it up somewhere along the line.
The fact that Nintendo's console is selling for a profit also means that they don't have to sell a bunch of game titles to get into the black -- if a person never buys another product from Nintendo after the console purchase, they've already made money.
I'm a 23 year old PC gamer. The only consoles I own are PS1, SNES, and NES. I do all my gaming on my PC (Wintel). My room mate got a PS2, which I never play, and while the 360 looks killer, I won't buy it for the price.
A $250 Wii? HELL YES! The price point alone is what does it for me. That and the new controller just makes it a lot more interesting then the same old systems with new graphics.
I think this will work really well for them. This will be the christmas present to buy for years to come.
Goal of all games: Fun (or learning, which can be defined as fun) Can the Wii provide dedicated gaming, RPG or turn based something or other? (rhetorical question)
All this chit chat about game systems not yet released is like little boys talking about sex. The one who has already had sex keeps his mouth shut. He knows everything they say is bunk and will be debunked. The truth will be known.
People still play the Nintendo 8-bit system. Nintendo knows this. They know quality lasts. Each system has its merits. The PS3 has thousands of games (ps2 + ps1). GREAT! PS3 owners will have plenty of fun. Wii owners will have plenty of fun, too. More or lesS? Do you really care? The Wii will have plenty to talk about after release. The PS3 and xbox just do not have the new features to inspire discussion. The Wii WILL work.
Die when you die -GG Allin
I live with 7 other people, and we have a shared food fund, which overflows into a house fund, and I'm totally going to lobby that we purchase a Nintendo Wii with it. I have only ever purchased (or my household purchased) an NES, a Gameboy, and a Game Gear (with its whopping 14-second battery life), and yet I am called to this glorious machine.
My four-point argument for the Nintendo Wii:
1. Legend of Zelda with sword-swinging.
2. Metroid Prime with controls that rival PC controls. (Oooooh! A slogan: "Metroid Prime: get inside Samus")
3. 4gb flash memory for under $50.
4. $250
I however do not really like any of the Mario Kart sequels nearly as much as the original. So yes, Nintendo can break my heart. Will they? I hope not. I don't even think it probable.
Please stop stalking me, bro.
..and now look as its place in the handheld market against the stronger and more advanced hardware that is the PSP. Bigger and badder does not equal better. Plus, I love how TFA claims Sony success without taking their idiotic tactics as of late.
and more: "Though the Wii doesn't boast all the features and processing firepower of its rivals, Nintendo believes its easy-to-use controller will give it an edge."
And finally: "There's also a danger that the Wii could cannibalize sales of the DS, which has been a smash hit with casual gamers thanks to its user-friendly design and titles..."
Acording to Wikipedia, total sales of the DS and DS Lite are over 26 million world wide. This is equal to their Gamecube sales and that has been out since 01. I'd say we can call the DS and DS Lite both successful. Seeing as sales for the DS Lite are still hot, I don't expcect that comined number to sit under 30 million for long. The author is full of it, or a fanboy. He obviously hasn't done a lot of research. Nintendo is no longer hoping that the DS will appeal to anyone. Now they know.
As far as the Wii goes, I know plenty of people who wouldn't buy a Gamecube because of its lack of 3rd parties. Though I own many games that are frequently requeseted when we get together like Mario Kart and even Robotech Battlecry. Well, ever one of these people is positively raving about how much they want the Wii. We'll see what they (and I) think after release. But I haven't heard one person say they don't want it. Reasons? Cheap, looks like fun, and "My [significant other] actually wants one too."
Nintendo won't have a problem with this gen.
This sig isn't original enough, it's time to come up with something witty...
I'm a PC gammer. I've been a PC gammer for almost 20 years now. And I have never owned a gaming console.
That said, the Wii is the first console I've actually considered buying. If the first 6 months look good for it, and someone makes a light-saber game that works with the Wii-mote, I just might buy my very first console.
What I am not interested in is a $3,000 system, which is what the PS3 or XBox is to me. $400-600 for the console. $1,4000-1,800 to replace my 48" projection with a similar sized HD projection. $200 for a few games and a controller, and $200 for new HD or Blue ray movies to take advantage of the HD tv and player.
For $250 I can hit the ground running with the Wii. Another $200 for a few games and a controller and I'll be pretty set for entertainment for the year.
-Rick
"Most people in the U.S. wouldn't know they live in a tyrannical state if it walked up and grabbed their junk." - MyFirs
Somewhere along the line "dedicated gamer" seems to have been hijacked (by the media presumably?) to mean something like "compulsive graphics whore who will brainlessly follow whatever the newest trend is." Maybe it happened back when FPSs became the big thing when every "dedicated gamer" seemed to be upgrading their graphics card every other week in order to be able to play the latest game. Regardless of when it came about however i don't think that interpretation has ever fit me, and i like to consider myself a dedicated gamer, though perhaps one who has somewhat lapsed in recent years as i've had to learn how to balance gaming, a social life and a career. There may may be a few people out there that fit that negative stereotype but i really hope that the gamers who are actually _dedicated_ to their hobby are actually intelligent and thoughtfull people who will put more thought into their purchasing decisions than that. But perhaps i'm beeing hopelessly optimistic.
This Space Intentionally Left Blank
The Wii has a built in advantage this analyst (as with most) seems to be forgetting, and that is, because the Wii sells at a profit from day 1, **Nintendo does not have to sell as many units to equal or better their competition** in terms of sales and revenue.
The 360 and PS3 may sell more consoles, and those people may buy more games. But you need a lot more more 360/PS3 games sold to compensate and surpass for the profit loss the companies are taking on the consoles.
I mean, look at the books of Nintendo vs. the Microsoft home entertainment division. Microsoft has way more boxes in the field, but is still way in the red. Nintendo is well in the black. And that's all that really matters in the long view.
I guarantee you that I'm a more "dedicated" gamer than 99% of the people out there. I've been playing all my life, played almost every classic game and every sleeper hit in some form or another. I've played games on every platform, and I've played multiplayer games on competitive levels. I've played almost every MMOG in existence to some extent. Next month I'm joining one of the world's best game developers to work on what will be some of the next few years' biggest games.
;P Just tired of being called a lesser gamer.
AND I DON'T GIVE A FLYING FUCK ABOUT THE GRAPHICS ARMS RACE!! I WANT INNOVATION, NEW EXPERIENCES, QUALITY GAME DESIGN, AND HAVE A SHITLOAD OF FUN ALONG WITH IT!! THAT is why I can't fucking wait for the Wii to come out. It may not be the second coming, but the DS has proven to me that Nintendo means it when they're going for fun over graphics power. And if WoW, HL2, RE4, Shadow of the Colossus, and other games like them have taught us anything it's that you don't need the ridiculous power to have wonderful graphics.
So all those people saying "Wii won't sell to 'true' or 'hardcore' gamers" or "Wii is for casual gamers, non-gamers, and families only"...you can all fuck off. You wanna prove you're more hardcore than me? Let's hop in a Halo PC or Tribes: Vengeance server and I'll show you what a real gamer plays like.
And no I'm not bitter
Sony's worst enemy is itself. I don't think their outlook is as promising as the article indicates. Nintendo should have no problem at least cutting a good profit.
The argument is dumb because it supposes that people will only buy one console. I have a PC, a gamecube, xbox and ps2. I am not the only one. Funny thing is, the gamecube gets the most use for gaming (out of the consoles). Nintendo is not about to vanish from the landscape and is the only console of the new three that looks to break new ground in going after an audience.
From 3 to 1, one being top system:
Number 3 - PS3: The theoretical processing power in their 8 cells is fantastic. I've had it explained to me a few times by my friends (who also happen to be computer engineers), and it sounds like, if done correctly, *for the correct game*, it can be a real thing of beauty. 8 mini processors working in parrellel sounds great! However, if you know something about programming, you know that memory dependence is pretty important. For instance, if you do a simple loop, you have various operations dependent on one or two iterators. Let's say you assign these iterators to its own processor (yeah, stupid, but it's an example, k?) then that processor will be INACTIVE for LONG periods of time while another processor does it's thing. So in the most optimal circumstances, the cell technology is amazing, but in it's least optimal, you may as well be using a 386.
Now the problem isn't that the cell power can be optimized, it's just that there's NO TOOLS TO DO SO AT THIS TIME. That's right, it's up to DEVELOPERS to optimize their own code, and I'm going to be honest, the learning curve and time that's going to be spent doing so is just not going to help this system.
There's LOADS of other problems, too. Lack of units. High unit cost. Expensive cables that (opps!) aren't included. The fragility of the Blue Ray CRC (it's so dense that one tiny scratch can destroy an entire disc because it stops the error correction from even being able to do its job). And the lack of any real online system to be demonstrated.
No question, this complete LOSER this round is PS3. It's time to move Sony next to Sega at the E3 conference. I bet those two will have lots to talk about.
Number 2 - Xbox360: The Xbox is in a realm of its own. It focuses on games that are not innovative, but instead improves ever so slightly on older paradigms. In this, those "hardcore" gamers who enjoy playing the best shooters on a *controller* will enjoy the XBox (yes, I know they're coming out with new controls). Bloodlust, violence, action, and adrenaline are all emphasized in the XBox gaming system. Plus, it has a well established community of online players. Nothing new, nothing impressive, nothing to write home about, but very very consistent. Will not reach a wide interest, but reaches out to a market that is quite full of young angry males. And by quite full, I mean full enough to build an entire business off of them.
Number 1 - Wii: This is not because I was raised on Nintendo. It's not because I owned the Mario/Zelda Cerial, subscribed to Nintendo power throughout the 90's, got up early as a kid to watch Captain N and the Super Mario World TV shows, owned mario comic books, and even paid to see that crappy Mario Bros. Movie. I had all but abandoned that company after my two fav gaming companies, Squaresoft and Capcom, left Nintendo. I'm supporting Nintendo because after ALLLLLL these years of CRAP... I'm amazed to find a company that puts out a QUALITY PRODUCT, who gets THIRD PARTY SUPPORT for this product, who INNOVATES the market using this product, who will successfully INTEGRATE other products into this product, and who has made this ANGRY YOUNG MALE feel like a DOE EYED BOY again. Part of me wants to ask Santa for this machine just to relive the feeling of not being able to sleep at night, waking my parents up to go around the Christmas tree in my footies to open the biggest box first and show a level of enthusiasm that only a kid on Christmas day could muster at 4am.
Where to start? Old games. All of them. Downloadable (small price, price I'm willing to freaking pay). Eventual online play. Wifi. Wii controller. The most amazing Zelda game to date. DS connectivity. Reasonable price range. Company profit. Innovative games like Mario Galaxy. The return of third party support. And the list goes on and on and on and on.
Yeah, hey, this guy is clearly out of touch with what it means to be a gamer if he thinks that people are all about the PS3. In fact, fire this man. He's a bad reporter.
Finder of the any key.
Wii. Wiimote. Lucas Arts. Jedi. Lightsaber. Game.
It's coming. And it will mean Wii will be the platform to beat. The Lucasfilm presentation at Comic-Con showed some of the other aspects of coming Lucas Arts games, like the Euphoria system which allows for truly unpredictable NPCs, and introduces a little bit of volition in the Player Character as well. The demo only made sense when you thought of it in the context of the Wii and its Wiimote.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjlFTihRwAk
Knowledge is power. Knowledge shared is power multiplied.
My thoughts exactly. My only hope is that the relatively large and powerful (read: spends lots of money) "core gamer" or "dedicated gamer" marketshare doesn't look at the Wii and say "oh, it's a stupid toy, it's not serious about serious video games like my 360/PS3 is." To people who play video games, "dedicated gamer" can mean something very different than what it means in the marketplace.
Have you read this Penny Arcade? http://www.penny-arcade.com/2006/09/15 At the bottom of Tycho's first post, he makes an interesting point and links to a video of some people at a game show playing Metroid Prime with the controllers. The interesting part is that you can hear them talking about the controls as they play and essentially complaining that it's not what they're used to.
I have a feeling that what the "dedicated gamers" may see is something that essentially isn't a games console because it doesn't have a console controller. You can't play games on it like you can play games on an Xbox, PS1/2/3, SNES, or any other console that has come out before it. A dedicated gamer suddenly feels not so dedicated and not such an expert when they pick up the newest toy that's branded as a games console and they have to relearn much of what they knew about video games, and especially for those who care about "asserting their pwnership over the medium" as Tycho puts it, this will likely lead to lots of "elitist" video game players shrugging their shoulders and passing off the Wii like it was a new DDR dance pad: a toy related to video games, but not an actual game.
I think a greater concern for Nintendo, who is trying to shift the idea of gaming into the average joe's spotlight, is that over the past few years, the ways that video games have developed may leave the average joe feeling this way too. Everyone and their dog has played Halo, and that to them is a video game. Look at what has happened in the development of the ridiculous "PC vs. Mac" arguments: any average guy can jump into the flamewar and say "The Mac is just a toy, it can't run my games and doesn't do what *I* want it to," and more or less be right, because it doesn't do what he wants it to, which is look, sound, act and feel like Windows, which is what he has grown accustomed to over the past x years of working with computers. "A 'computer' runs Windows, and anything else is a stupid imitation and a waste of time." Well, the technically inclined among us know that that simply isn't the case, and the same goes for the Wii: truly dedicated gamers, the ones who enjoy playing games for what they are and that rate low on the fanboy scale, will agree with what you've said and will embrace the new console because it offers the potential of something different. The average person that is not overly concerned or interested in the video games marketplace, that in actuality makes up much of the "core gamer" or "dedicated gamer" demographic that market analysts refer to, may act similarly and write the Wii off as a pale imitation.
It is in the truly dedicated gamer's interest that the Wii is a massive success. Actually, I take that back: it is in the greatest interest of every single person who has ever even picked up or tried a video game, or ever will. Why? If the Wii fails, it may fully drive home the notion that although small ragged bands of true gamers here and there complain about stagnating gameplay and the lack of innovation, their voice really doesn't matter, and what will sell is sequels and rehashes and new graphics. Sure, people have tried innovative stuff before, but in my memory at least, this is the first time in the video games industry that an industry juggernaut has jumped into the fray to directly compete with the market dominators with something truly unique and different (I don't count the Virtual Boy: I don't believe it was ever designed to directly compete with the other major consoles. Maybe I'm wrong).
If the Wii is an abysmal failure, Nintendo will be kaput, regardless
You are slightly off-base on two points. First, all Wii owners will have at least one nunchuk. It is included in the box. If they need more, they will buy more. Secondly, and more importantly, this is better than a third-party controller in the fact that it is a first-party controller that is included with the system. They are two different creatures. Dev's will be far more inclined (probably even required) to program for the Wiimote given the very fact that it comes with every system and is core to the concept.
Will there be crappy implementations tossed-off by barely competent developers? My Magic 8 Ball says, "Outcome likely." Will there be plenty of games that use it flawlessly and in ways that we have yet to consider? Let's ask the 8 Ball again, "Definitely Yes." Will playing with the Wii become a novelty or part of future interface schemes? "Outcome hazy. Ask again later."
Quit being such a troll, go enjoy your X-Box, and bugger off while others (like me) try the Wii. If it catches on, you'll either be playing with one yourself soon enough, or you'll be using some bastardization of the concept from MS or Sony. Hell, Sony already tried to borrow the idea before the full info was out and they're already appearing half-assed... if not quarter-assed.
Mess not in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and good with ketchup.
There's no mention of the opening unit count for PS3: 400,000. According to this article, that's 10% of the number of Wii's expected to ship this year. Sony will have a hard time recovering from the glut of bad press surrounding PS3's near unavailability, combined with the inevitable "game stores hock their PS3s on eBay for $$$$$$$$". It happened with Xbox 360, it'll happen with PS3. Id bet that there's at least 400k hard-core console gamers between the US and Japan... it's possible that 60% of the units end up on eBay for prices upwards of $3000 (360 auctions peaked at around $1900, iirc). No less-than-hard-core console gamer (who happen to have a pile of cach on hand) is going to get their hands on a PS3 for months.
Then there's the PS3 sub distribution: 80% of all PS3's will be the more expensive units that can display HD content. HD isn't going anywhere as fast as the media indistry hoped. Sony is betting on a miracle.
Meanwhile, MS is going to keep pushing products that fit in with the market they watched boom for 10 years or more with little change. MS doesn't even fully understand games. They don't innovate anywhere, they're certainly not going to start here.
Nintendo has once again realized that the console market has stagnated, and have taken upon themselves to pull out of the rut. The original NES was innovative, and the Wii is more so. Every console system since 1985 has been based partly on the NES (mostly the controller). I fully expect console gaming 20 years from now to be ready to pull out of the rut created when the entire industry decided to copycat the Wiimote.
Verdict:
I'm not a console gamer, but I have some common sense
I think the Wii stands a chance in the marketplace. Will it be number 1? Probably not. Will it do very well? I think so.
IANAFanboi of any console or platform (I really don't care about the box, as long as I can enjoy the game - we have PS2, XBox, PC, and Mac games we play from time to time...)
Why do I think it stands a chance? My kids summed it up quick: It's not a zillion dollars, doesn't come in a zillion "versions", some of the games sound neat, and they think the controller interface(s) is/are cool and different. I happen to agree with them. I don't think I'll be doing Dance Dance Revolution (or anything like that, I'm not that graceful), but I'll enjoy doing something different with how I'll interact with the games. Besides, I can get a new plunk-around guitar for the difference I won't have to pay between a Wii and a well-equipped PS3.
A Passionate Independent Musician
Perhaps you've not heard of marketshare and mindshare, but in modern business they are more important than profitability. Consider Amazon.com, who didn't make a profit for the first 5 years of their existence. Hugely successful, but losing money every day. The reason they were successful is that everyone knows they will eventually make all that lost money back, plus more. The same with Google, Yahoo, YouTube, and the list goes on.
Microsoft are spending money to win. They don't care how much it costs, they just want to have a lot of Xboxes out there so that it can link up to Windows Media centre or a PC or whatever else is in the plans. And if they are successful they start to rake in big money.
The Gamecube was a loser because Nintendo came out with a badly tarnished reputation. They make a kiddie console with no serious games, they got left behind by the 'cool' companies Sony and Xbox, and their future was bleak. That's exactly why they have to take relatively risky options now, with the DS and the Wii. Nintendo would never have gone bust, but when their popularity falls behind the other two makes they lose support. The 3rd party support of the Gamecube was abysmal. Many retailers have stopped selling Gamecube a long time ago.
It's not just about money.
And that stops being true once you get married and have kids. ;)
Random rants about technology: http://technorants.blogspot.com
At first I was a bit dismayed with the 250 price. I don't have a buncha spendable cash like some, but after thinking about it, 250 still seems like a deal for a system that wants to try something this ambitious.
It's the kind of device that I think was designed the way products SHOULD be designed. Someone with an imagination said "What if...?" rather than a marketroid saying "We want to try and appeal to such and such a market so we're going to release products based on this data."
No sig for you!!
Come again? Who the hell are those "truly dedicated gamers" that prefer a 360 or a PS3 to the Wii?
I have in my living room right now about a dozen consoles - from the Pong to the Gamecube. I have about 30 more consoles stored in various places. I own tons of new and vintage consoles. I also own portables. I own a PSP, a DS, and every version of the GBA. I am a "truly dedicated gamer" if there ever was one. Guess what? I haven't yet bought a 360. When it came out, I thought I'd get one about a year after release, but so far, there's simply nothing which compells me to buy one. I probably won't get a PS3 until late in its lifespan, either. There's simply not a whole lot of stuff going on with those two "next-gen consoles" that excites this particular "truly dedicatd gamer." Same games with better graphics? Sign me up... Not!
I'll get both a 360 and a PS3 - as soon as some really compelling and interesting games come out for them, and as soon as the prices start to reach less absurd levels. For now, neither console interests me all that much.
I will, however, get a Wii the day it comes out.
Because I'm a "truly dedicated gamer," not despite of it.
I agree that it's entirely possible (although far from certain - it depends on how well the nunchuck will sell, and since it isn't too expensive, it might sell so well that developers won't have to worry) that many multiplayer games will go for a control scheme which won't use the Nunchuck. And this is a pity.
I also agree that the controllers cost too much. Maybe Nintendo should have tried bundling the nunchuck with the Wiimote for the current price of the Wiimote. I guess they did not do that because the Wiimote probably costs quite a bit to manufacture.
However, I don't agree that the Wii ends up costing too much. If you buy a Wii with three additional Wiimotes, that's 370 bucks. And you get Wii Sports, which is a multiplayer game that is playable with the Wiimotes.
If you get the Nunchucks, that ends up being 430 bucks. Still well below a PS3 with one controller and no games.
And finally, the idea seems to be that people buy "their own" controller and take it to their friend's place, so for lots of people, it's probably a non-issue. Not for me, not for you - lots of my friends aren't going to buy Wiis, and I want to play against those people, too.
It's an issue, but it's not as big an issue as you make it out to be.