WGA — Too Many False Positives

An anonymous reader writes, "Microsoft insists that its Windows Genuine Advantage anti-piracy program is nearly flawless. But that's not the impression you get when you visit the company's WGA Validation Problems forum. Ed Bott at ZDNet went through 137 problem reports submitted there during a two-week period, each one accompanied by the output from the official Microsoft diagnostic utility, and found that 42% of the people reporting problems were actually running Genuine software. From the article: 'One large group consists of people who, for some unexplained reason, were displaying cryptographic errors related to digital signatures. The problem is so common, in fact, that Microsoft representatives have a canned response they paste into replies to forum visitors who appear to be showing false positives caused by these errors.' In a related story, the first WGA errors from Windows Vista and Office 2007 have appeared in the wild."

Comments

The Spin of the Dot

[eldavojohn]

I'm glad Ed Bott was able to discern which people were using genuine software and which had copies. People can get copies from machine vendors without knowing it, you know. Did he have access to Microsoft's database?

It's more than likely that one of the very few problems you could experience with this software is that it gives you a false positive--therefore a high percentage of forum posts are based on this problem.

Honestly, do you think that every person who used this with success went straight to the forum boards and posted "Success! Thanks Microsoft!"?

In a related story, the first WGA errors from Windows Vista and Office 2007 have appeared in the wild.

Wait, you're trying to tell me that a software program run on thousands of machines has failed in some cases!? No fscking way. That never happens--WGA should be error free--this is unacceptable.

In the software world, 137 problems on say 5,000 cases of average people using your brand new product is "nearly flawless." I would guess 50% are user error, 42% false positives and 8% other.

How is this news? Come on guys, I hate Microsoft as much as the next Linux user but I'm not blindly stupid about it ... leave bending percentages and pointing out unavoidable errors to the politicians & corporate America, please! WGA sucks. But let's tear down its principle and theory--not the implementation.

Re:The Spin of the Dot

[eln]

The percentage may be exaggerated, but the problem is still significant. The WGA software basically shuts you off from the upgrades you should be entitled to as a valid Windows user. In theory, this would be fine if Microsoft had reliable data as to who is a legitimate user and who isn't. However, it seems that Microsoft's data is not as reliable as it should be. Shutting your customers off from updates the already paid for (by virtue of paying for the software) because you don't have accurate data on who actually bought your product is irresponsible at best.

Re:The Spin of the Dot

[nine-times]

Wait, you're trying to tell me that a software program run on thousands of machines has failed in some cases!? No fscking way. That never happens--WGA should be error free--this is unacceptable.

I think the point is that there are a significant number of apparently legitimate Windows users who are having problems with their computers because of WGA. Since WGA offers no benefit to users, this is an instance of Microsoft taking actions which harm their own legitimate customers because of a policy which doesn't help any customers.

What I'm saying is, we accept software to malfunction now and then, so when the whole complicated piece of software has a couple bugs, that's expected. When a developer tries to integrate a new feature that benefits large numbers of customers but harms a small number due to a bug, that's forgivable. However, when a developer takes action to punish illegitimate users, developers should tread very lightly. It almost feels like vigilante justice, and you should make sure that it's not an issue for legitimate customers. They might have every legal right to do it, but as a customer, I do find it unacceptable. Microsoft purposefully shutting down an otherwise working system, causing a loss of man-hours, because they've falsely identified it as "suspect"-- I find that to be sufficient reason to complain.

As if we needed another reason.

Re:The Spin of the Dot

[k98sven]

I do agree that the principle of the thing is a lot more relevant argument than the implementation. But I don't think that means you shouldn't be able to complain about the latter as well, if it has faults. What's being pointed out here are indeed faults. But you're dead wrong in saying that they're unavoidable.

Every test will ultimately have faults. They will always produce some amount false negatives and false positives, and to that extent you're right in saying that they're unavoidable.

But! That doesn't mean they are equally unavoidable. Depending on the consequences of false negatives and positives, you can and should design your test to avoid one, possibly at the cost of another.

For instance, when testing for a disease, the consequence of a false positive indicates a healthy person is sick. A false negative indicates a sick person is healthy. Obviously the former scenario is a lot more preferable. Proper disease tests are designed in exactly that way, so that the probability of the former is usually several orders of magnitude larger than the latter. (This is also why they almost always do further tests on a positive result.)

Okay. So in the WGA scenario, a false positive means an honest customer is getting screwed out of support they paid for. (I'd actually call it a false negative though, since they're not running 'genuine' software.) A false negative means someone running pirated software gets support they weren't entitled to.

At least from the consumer perspective, the latter scenario is definitely better. In an ideal market, that would be what would be best for MS too. However, it's not an ideal market situation, because they're a monopoly. That makes it possible for them to push their own interest at the expense of the customer to a lot larger extent.

So I think there's every reason to criticise MS here. If they didn't intend for this, it's badly designed software. Given their massive install-base, they should be expected to be careful in designing this stuff. Given their equally massive profit, they certainly have the resources to do so. If they did intend this, then they're screwing their own customers just to save a buck on support.

Incompetence or malice: Take your pick. But in neither case would I hold MS blameless.

Re:The Spin of the Dot

[MooUK]

An obvious (to me) question comes to mind:
If they have functionality to work out whether it's a false positive, why isn't that functionality in WGA in the first place?

There are 10 kinds of people

[chriss]

those who can read statistics and those who can't.

There is no way you can derive a headline like "WGA giving 42% false positives" from a statement like "42% of the users that reported problems with WGA ran genuine software". 42% of the problems sampled should not have triggered problems, but that's all, there's no insight how many attempts of validating your Windows license there are.

There are at least 10 people who don't understand this: One slashdot poster and one slashdot editor.

Umm, selection bias....?

[Otter]

Ed Bott at ZDNet went through 137 problem reports submitted there during a two-week period, each one accompanied by the output from the official Microsoft diagnostic utility, and found that 42% of the people reporting problems were actually running Genuine software.

Wild guess here -- people with legitimate software are a lot more likely to submit problem reports than people with bad copies are to post "My 1337 w4r3z w0n7 w0rk! G00d j0b!"

Just the other day....

[zappepcs]

Just the other day, some /.er was trying to say that Linux isn't ready for primetime. While this might be taken out of context slightly, it doesn't look like Windows is ready for primetime either. More to the point, the differences between OS's is more a case of how many problems and what type of problems you are willing to put up with. I can't see this story as anything but a boon for the various Linux distributions, and of course, for Apple.

One facet of this comparison is that Linux (generally) does not claim to be perfect, or the best operating system to have. This, to me, looks like the playground bully trying to recover from having his pants fall down around his ankles.

While WGA is a plausibly good idea for someone that sells their software, the implementation of it has left a lot to be desired.

Shouldn't even exist

[XanC]

WGA should not exist. It causes hassle for paying customers, that's all. Pirates find their way around. If it worked perfectly, it would be bad enough, but if even one legitimate person is locked out of his computer, MS has some serious explaining to do.

Re:Shouldn't even exist

[robogun]

I agree, but not for the reason you might think.

MS was built on piracy. Their 90% install base was derived from people passing copies of windows around back in the DOS and 3.1 days. Having achieved that it's now time to start charging, because the company is not making enough money (from the Wall Street standpoint, which requires logarithmic sales projections to achieve linear stock price changes). WGA was implemented because MS has no need to increase the install base % further, and they figure WGA can at once produce income and increase perceived product value.

I don't think their % is going to decline much, but I also don't think WGA is going to increase income at all. The common users have stuck with MS through all the bugs, virii, spyware and licensing hassles due to inertia and that's not changing. MS won't be gone until the next user interface is invented, and we all know MS won't invent it because they have no R&D. WGA is about the only thing they invented, and it didn't come out of R&D, it came from Marketing.

Why exactly would you install the WGA update?

[ddent]

I see no advantage. Even if you have a perfectly valid copy of windows, there are really two possible outcomes:
1. System works fine, and your copy of windows keeps working just as before. No added benefits.
2. System stops working due to problem with WGA.

Given that there is no benefit and the possibility of a downside, I fail to see why you would choose to install or use such a technology if you know about it. It is a move with only a negative expected value.

I just don't understand

[pembo13]

Is Windows drug like in nature? It keeps doing things to people, that said people don't seem to like. Yet they keep coming back. I used Windows since 3.1, I never really liked it..but always thought that it was the best thing out there. As soon as I found that things could be better, I slowly moved away from Windows. I am now free enough of Windows that I don't suffer any of these problems that people seem to complain about regularly. It's like windows is the abusive husband, and you all , Windows addicts, are the abused wife....get help people.

Re:Not as many as it seems.

[Chris Burke]

How many Windows users would submit a report to the WGA Problems Forum if they had a problem?

I can't say, but I'm imagining it's a very small fraction of total users.

The point though is to make sure you're comparing like to like. Problem Reports is not the same as Total Problems, just as Potential Problem Reports is not the same as Total Windows Users.

hey

[Vexorian]

we shouldn't be complaining, cause everybody knows that the consumer is far from being as important as fighting computer piracy.

Re:Not as many as it seems.

[Firehed]

How many Windows users could submit a report to the WGA Problems Forum if they had a problem?

Unlike Slashdotters, not everyone has a spare computer or six kicking around, to deal with just such an occasion. Of course since I switched to Macs, I'm not quite sure what failing the WGA does at this point, but since I've seen the term 'locked out' more than once in this topic, I'll assume it's a bit more hostile than it used to be.

Re:Apple

[gsfprez]

its nice knowing that my Mac is my computer, and that once i sent my money to Apple, they assumed that this computer was no longer their property.

The day Apple ever does this kind of shit is the day i skulk over to Linux and figure out how i'm going to do my video work.

Re:Apple

[garcia]

I had been an anti-Windows person on Slashdot for a long time. Back in November of 2002 I received a computer as a present that included XP (with a key!) I switched over to being a Windows desktop user with a Linux server running everything else.

Now, with WGA (and my valid key invalidated for whatever reason), I'm now using my Mac and my Linux machines only. I have absolutely no desire to deal w/verifying with MSFT that my install is a valid one. I shouldn't have to as it's THEIR problem.

While I never trusted MSFT, there was a 3.5 year stretch there where I didn't much care either way. This one incident has turned me around right quick.

And now, for the machine that I need to have XP on for my wife to do her job, we have used several hacks to get around the WGA and get it what it needs to run. I don't feel the slightest bit guilty about it either. I paid for it and now I'm going to run it.

Sad, but biased

[Jugalator]

Did the fixes work? No one knows, because the original posters either never returned to the forum or never posted a reply. Only 20% of the forum threads we looked at included a follow-up message from the original poster indicating that they had solved the problem.

My question would then be: if it's working, how many of you even bother to visit Microsoft's forum to post "Thanks, it worked"?
Usually, when a fix works, people move on, and don't go back to forums to confirm things are working.

screw wga because...

[celardore]

It offers no benefit to me. Why would I want that installed when I have a perfectly good copy of XP Corporate Edition? I don't give a shit about the latest media player, or IE7. Sure, I take the critical updates when I'm offered them but that is all. I ran the WGA tool and of course I am not a valid user of Windows XP. Saying that though, I am a legitimate owner of an XP Home license. Which I haven't used in years, I keep the keycode safe though. I used XP Home for a while, but I found it restrictive for my needs; so I installed a bootlegged copy of the corporate edition which has always been fantastic.

If MS sold their software at a lower price they would generate more sales that would compensate for the low price.
I know so many people that say "I would buy windows, if it didn't cost hundreds!" If they sold the pro edition for a cheaper price then they would sell so many more that it would compensate for the few that did pay the higher price. I'm not in marketing, I'm in accountancy, so I know about economic curves and I think MS is just milking the corporate market for as much as they can. If they opened up their 'pro' systems for lower prices I am sure their sales would increase as well as their revenue.

MS alienate potential buyers with their WGA and high prices. Set your prices low, and sell a bundle. Look at your profits, M$, you're not "hard done by".

Re:WGA locking legitimate users out

[topham]

My mothers computer had issues booting a week ago, trying to use the disc that came with the machine to resolve the problem resulted in the harddrive being formatted (no questions asked, nice, eh?), and then failed to actually install the OS as there seem to be disc errors.

Solution? Purchase a copy of XP Home (Upgrade). I wasn't happy about it, and I probably would have started yelling at the clerk in the store, but in the end they now have a copy of XP Home which can be used to install, or fix/repair an install.

The original disc was an OEM install disc and was configured for an unconditional install.

I am so sick of the bullshit on Windows platforms; nothing is as aggravating as realizing how many of the problems are intentional design decisions.

Re:No point whining

[Fortran IV]

You should jump ship to a competitor... Oh wait, you can't be bothered. In that case, tough cheese.

Oh, please just grow up. What competitor? What other OS runs MasterCAM, Autodesk Inventor, JobBOSS, <shudder>Quickbooks</shudder> and all the other software companies like ours depend on to keep revenue coming in and the IRS satisfied?

I am sick of Windows, but I'm even sicker of the geek who assumes that just because he switched his home computer—or even his office server—over to Linux that anybody should be able to ditch Windows whenever they feel like it.

There is a real world out here, and in it there are thousands of small companies that have to use computers to communicate with their customers and suppliers and to keep up with their competitors but that are too small to afford even a part-time IT guru. Companies like that have to buy their accounting software, their production software, their shop management software, their design software—and what's for sale out here in the real world only runs on Windows.

It's not, "can't be bothered to jump to a competitor". There is no competitor, not realistically.

nothing is as aggravating as... EXACTLY!

[jonasj]

"nothing is as aggravating as realizing how many of the problems are intentional design decisions". You said it.

Re:No point whining

[gordgekko]

I notice a decided lack of responses to this post. You know why? Because Linux users never have a real response for stuff like this other than "Run it under WINE!!!1!!"

Re:No point whining

[QuantumG]

Similarly, if you are locked in anyway, what motivation is there for Microsoft to fix anything? If you can't even threaten to jump ship then what are you? A galley slave. That oar you're chained to, it's called Windows.

Re:No point whining

[linguae]

Wine isn't perfect. Some Windows applications do not work well under Wine.

Re:Why I'm running Linux on this PC

[tshak]

2 of the 3 PC's are currently running pirated copies of XP and have safely passed...So here is 3 sales/upgrades that MS won't get.

It doesn't look like they were getting them anyway.

Re:No point whining

[Pengo]

Some???

Your joking right.. In my humble opinion, wine is a piece of shit.

Computers aren't many thousands of dollars anymore, buy a $300 emachine, and run windows on your office computer if you need to. Come on, get real.. who can't afford to buy windows that needs to be running it?

I can go down to Walmart and BUY a computer with windows and be just fine. If I need to run Peachtree. I have a small business myself (Am a partner), we have about 6 Linux servers.. 1 is running PGSQL, one is running Resin/Java... the rest are running Asterisk. We put them into a 1/2 rack that we pay $400 a month for. We have a office full of windows workstations for our Customer Service, though all of them are using Windows & Xten phones for SIP taking incoming calls on Asterisk from a phone provider who has a sip gateway. Yes , we are windows friendly... but shit.. come on!

We have an accountant that keeps our books in order, taxes in line.. she uses Peach-tree. if someone thinks a -real- business is going to have a hard time paying $375 for a low end dell, with windows.. to do NOTHING but run Peach-tree... they have their head on backwards. You will spend more than that in man hours trying to get some linux goon trying to get whatever wacky-ass hack-accounting package to work.

Windows is a commodity, cost of doing business. Running Linux or Mac is nothing more than a luxury, being a linux/java programmer myself.. I don't see any savings at all, I find nothing more than comfort in working in my own familiar environment (My Mac doing Java programming and voiceapp work on Asterisk for Linux servers).. but that's just as expensive as a MSDN membership and paying for windows licenses on servers...

Running Linux or Mac is nothing more than a luxury

[falconwolf]

I disagree that running Linux is a luxury unless you add that running any computer is a luxury. Last week I bought a new pc with linux preinstalled. The lowest priced Windows PC was twice what I paid for mine. And they all had XP installed, because of Activation and WGA I had decided years ago I wouldn't buy another Windows OS unless I absolutely had to or until MS got rid of Activation and WGA. Now I did have to get a card of ram because the pc didn't come with enough and a second harddisk, again for the same reason, but even then I was able to pay less than the cheapest Windows PC.

I haven't tried Wine so I don't know how well it works. But for those Windows apps I may want to run in Linux, the only one I know right now is XMLSpy, has been tested to run in CodeWeaver's Crossover. I agree with you in that as with any other tool you should use the computer system/OS that works for what it's supposed to do.

Re:No point whining

[Technician]

Oh, please just grow up. What competitor? What other OS runs MasterCAM, Autodesk Inventor, JobBOSS, Quickbooks and all the other software companies like ours depend on to keep revenue coming in and the IRS satisfied?

Great, you gave a valid reason for 10% of the office to run a paticular vendor's OS. How about the rest of the office? It's time to get something that is reliable.

42%? It is 100% at my company

[WCMI92]

We use only HP desktop systems, all of which come preloaded with XP. One day after MS pushed this malware out (and WGA is malware by any definition, so sue me Gates) via a "critical" update that came via automatic update, several of our recently installed HP DC5100 PC's came up with the WGA trojan virus (sue me again Gates) and refused to allow a login. Microsoft told us to call HP who told us to call Microsoft. No remedy was offered.

So, we wasted two days reloading a bunch of PC's that most definitley had legal software, in two of our divisions.

The result? Windows Update service is DISABLED on our domains, and I am looking into some sort of update deployment program that will allow me to choose which updates go out to PCs.

Microsoft, I guess thinks it can operate like the RIAA, assume that their customers are thieves and treat them like criminals.

I can tell you this much, I don't see myself deploying Vista anywhere until it's absolutely unavoidable.

Hey, look, a bad statistical argument!

[raehl]

Did you know that 99.9% of people being treated for cancer have cancer?

42% is surprising - but it's not surprising because it's high, it's surprising because it's low. Wouldn't you expect that 100% of the people complaining about problem with WGA would have genuine software?

It is an old lesson...

[Anonymous Coward]

I've seen it proven over and over again since the old CP/M days:

There is no copy protection system that saves as much by preventing piracy as it costs in terms of legitimate customer dissatisfaction.

Thank you for proving this once more, Microsoft!