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Analysts Split Over Vista Launch Date

An anonymous reader writes "A ZDNet report details comments by analysts on the upcoming release of Microsoft's newest operating system. Vista is currently scheduled to be released to businesses next month, and to consumers in January of next year. Not everyone on the sidelines agrees that the company will make that deadline, though. Reservations seem mostly to center around legal and political issues, rather than any concrete technical problems." From the article: " A delay for Vista now would be convenient for Microsoft, Gartner analyst David Mitchell-Smith argued, because 'when people start complaining about the delay, Microsoft can reasonably say 'don't blame us' and point the finger at the EC.' ... Mitchell-Smith also noted that Microsoft wants to avoid further litigation, as it is already facing legal action by Symantec and Adobe Systems."

32 of 165 comments (clear)

  1. Analysts Always Make the News by eldavojohn · · Score: 5, Funny

    Disclaimer: I am drunk.

    So the analysts are split, eh? And that's news? So if the analysts go one way or the analysts go the other, it's news. And now, we've witnessed that if the analysts don't agree, it's news. Come to think of it, it'd be pretty damn hard for analysts to do something that isn't news.

    Well, I've got the next headline: "Analysts Think About Vista & Retire to the Bathroom to Lay Some Cable." I mean, is there anything the analysts can do that won't make the news? And it causes me great amusement when we get reports from IDC or sponsored "analysts" that are in favor of those who sponsor them.

    You know, I should become an analyst. I hear they get all the girls--unlike the bassists.

    --
    My work here is dung.
    1. Re:Analysts Always Make the News by tomhudson · · Score: 5, Funny

      Disclaimer: I am drunk.

      Unfortunately, even though you're drunk, your analysis of analysts is more accurate than most analysts analysis.

    2. Re:Analysts Always Make the News by colonslashslash · · Score: 5, Funny

      And your analysis of this drunk analyst's analysis was far more analytical than the first analsysts analysis. Disclaimer: I'm pretty drunk too and wanted to see how many times I could get away with saying "anal" on /. without being too far off topic. P.S. IANAL.

      --
      She's built like a steak house, but she handles like a bistro....
    3. Re:Analysts Always Make the News by smittyoneeach · · Score: 2, Funny

      Urinalysis for all my friends!

      --
      Get thee glass eyes, and, like a scurvy politician, seem to see things thou dost not.--King Lear
    4. Re:Analysts Always Make the News by bataras · · Score: 2, Funny

      Disclaimer: I am stoned.

      I don't think the analysts should mitigate their concern for anything, after the EC stamps a rubber hoze on this beech it has to be forgotten that the misery they're in can not lessen to the misery they give.

    5. Re:Analysts Always Make the News by Xugumad · · Score: 3, Funny

      Disclaimer: I want analysts to be stoned. With actual stones.

    6. Re:Analysts Always Make the News by Mateo_LeFou · · Score: 2, Funny

      "analsysts"

      heh. for a second there i thought you said "anal cysts"

      Question for the group: which is more annoying: analysts or anal cysts?

      --
      My turnips listen for the soft cry of your love
    7. Re:Analysts Always Make the News by A+beautiful+mind · · Score: 2, Funny

      I counted you saying it 8 times. That's numerical analysis for you!

      --
      It takes a man to suffer ignorance and smile
      Be yourself no matter what they say
    8. Re:Analysts Always Make the News by rdoger6424 · · Score: 3, Funny

      Tomorrow's slashdot headline: Analysts split over the analysts vs anal cysts debate

      --
      "Hello 911? I just tried to toast some bread, and the toaster grew an arm and stabbed me in the face!"
    9. Re:Analysts Always Make the News by hotdiggitydawg · · Score: 4, Funny

      Now you're just taking the piss...

    10. Re:Analysts Always Make the News by minus_273 · · Score: 3, Funny

      "Disclaimer: I am stoned."

      Let me guess you live in a muslim country..

      --
      The war with islam is a war on the beast
      The war on terror is a war for peace
    11. Re:Analysts Always Make the News by Kenshin · · Score: 2, Funny

      I've only had one beer. So far.

      Analysts are up there with consultants in the league of overpopulated, under-skilled career fields.

      Some are brilliant, but most are attention whoring hacks. To use two quotes to blatantly generalise:

      Analysts: "Facts are meaningless! You can use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true!" (Homer Simpson)

      Consultants: "If you're not a part of the solution, there's good money to be made in prolonging the problem." (despair.com)

      --

      Does it make you happy you're so strange?

  2. Oh, get real by overshoot · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It's on rails. Whatever MS has when the date comes, goes.

    --
    Lacking <sarcasm> tags, /. substitutes moderation as "Troll."
  3. Re:Obsession by tomhudson · · Score: 3, Insightful

    For a site where no one claims to be using Microsoft products, there sure is an obsession over Vista!

    "Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer."

  4. Vista by TheRecklessWanderer · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Vista is nice. It certainly (IMHO) not worth an upgrade, and I'm not buying a new PC. I don't see any benefits. I see it breaking my music, or making it harder for me to play it. I see it making things less easy to configure (at the low level). It does look cool, but so what. There is no way my office is upgrading to Vista (Luckily, I make that choice). All these analysts saying this and that and the other about Vista. Why don't they do something useful instead of shooting off a bunch of useless positions.

    --
    Mean what you say...say what you mean.
    1. Re:Vista by slackmaster2000 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I also make software decisions for my organization, and like you, I will not be upgrading any machines to Windows Vista.

      However, I realize that we are bound to Windows for the long term. Previous plans to switch to competitive (preferably OSS) software have always concluded that the initial bump is too high and too wide to overcome without dedicating considerable resources throughout the company. We wouldn't see a positive return for a long time, although eventually there will be a (relatively speaking) small one. In other words, the hassle is a tangent that is not in line with the goals of the company, and the payoff is minor enough that the effort is not considered to be worthwhile. Inevitable poor analogy: I have to mow a large lawn with a crappy little lawn mower. My time is valuable to me, and a new lawn mower would save time and over the long term pay off. However, a nice lawnmower is so immediately expensive that I really don't want to afford it now, and can't afford the effort of saving for it. The end goal is that the lawn look nice, which will occur whether it takes me an hour with a nice mower or four hours with a crappy mower. Thus I'll just continue mowing the lawn with my crappy lawn mower and not worry about it.

      Ok, so I've taken the long road to get to my point: you're in a Windows shop, as am I. Neither of us will be upgrading to Vista, but it is inevitable that we will begin running Vista on new machines. It is inevitable that we will eventually have a majority of our machines running Vista. I don't know about you, but I've been installing the release candidates to get an idea of what I'll be seeing in the future. (and trying to optomistic about the obvious flaws in these beta releases..."what do you mean you can't find a driver for my CDROM drive? It's a CDROM drive, just fucking read it!")

      It's also interesting to me to think back on my initial impressions of past MS operating systems. The only one that I actually *liked* and *upgraded to* was Windows 2000. A Windows OS that was hardware, software, and support friendly in terms of business use. When I first experienced Windows XP I hated it. I hated it for years. However, now I would much rather support our majority of XP machines than our minority of Win2K machines. Is XP a better operating system? Well, now that I've gotten over the realization that it isn't the best thing since sliced bread, I can say "yeah, it's a bit better."

      Nowadays I don't pay much attention to hype and analyst bullshit, other than for personal amusement. I look at the features that I'll eventually be supporting and try to plan on how they'll affect me both negatively and positively.

    2. Re:Vista by Javaman59 · · Score: 2, Insightful
      I don't make these decisions for my company, but I've made them a few times for home.

      Previous plans to switch to competitive (preferably OSS) software have always concluded that the initial bump is too high and too wide to overcome without dedicating considerable resources throughout the company.
      Each time I've considered Linux for home use, I've decided that right now not only is Linux not worth the trouble of switching, but that Windows actually does the job that I want of it better. The only looking to the future I do is to assume that future Windows will also be better than future Linux. I'll make the switch when linux, right now, is better than Windows, right now.

      One company I worked for (a small compnay) did actually switch to Linux. It wasn't a calculated business decision, but rather a mission by the CTO, based on a seeming "religious" preference for FOSS, backed by management who thought they might get something for nothing. Watching from the sidelines, it seemed to take a ridiculous amount of time, and produced nothing of value, other than potential future payoff, if and when FOSS becomes mainstream.

      The only [MS OS] that I actually *liked* and *upgraded to* was Windows 2000. ... Well, now .. I can say "yeah, it [WinXP is] a bit better."
      I agree. Window's 2000 was actually likeable, but WinXP, despite some ugliness, is a bit better. I miss the XP "Start" menu when I use 2000.
      --
      I'm a software visionary. I don't code.
    3. Re:Vista by jawtheshark · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I agree. Window's 2000 was actually likeable, but WinXP, despite some ugliness, is a bit better. I miss the XP "Start" menu when I use 2000

      There are exactly *two* features that are useful in WinXP that aren't in Win2000. That's fast user switching and remote desktop. The Luna theme is not part of it. I have never met a single IT person that hasn't switched it off and many user I talked to was delighted to find out that you could actually switch it off. As for the two advantages of WinXP: the fast user switching is gone once you are in a domain, which is why I can't run a domain at home! Fast user switching is the singlemost useful thing in a home environement, but frankly, I can see usages in a corporate/domain usage too...

      But Win2000 is the Microsoft OS that I actually liked most.

      --
      Ahhh...the great dumpster continuum. Many a free computer will be found there. -- sowth (748135)
  5. Re:Obsession by HappySqurriel · · Score: 4, Insightful

    "For a site where no one claims to be using Microsoft products, there sure is an obsession over Vista!" I rarely talk to someone who claims that they do not use any Microsoft products, but I know of a ton of people who use Unix/Linux/BSD or MacOS if they can. The fact is that whether people choose to or not, most people here will be using (or at least evaluating) Windows Vista within 18 months of its release. Personally, I'm going to hold out as long as I can but I'm willing to bet that I'll start dealing with a company who wants a product developed that is ready to run on Windows Vista and I'll be forced to use it.

  6. Who is unreasonable? by Teun · · Score: 5, Insightful
    Microsoft is "probably getting a bit tired" of the European Union's stance, suggested Mitchell-Smith. "It's not unreasonable to think so."

    And Europe is getting a bit tired of Microsoft's attitude.
    These guys in Redmond know damn well what is required to get a smooth introduction of their software in Europe, and unlike at home it can't be bought in a court or congress.

    Of course Europe has it's own shortcomings, for one they should have demanded a noticeable price difference between XP and XP-N, surely the development of MS Media Player was not for free.
    For another Europe should have insisted on more interoperability like full access to the specs of NTFS.

    Just to name a few issues with the de-facto monopoly.

    --
    "The likes of Facebook and WhatsApp are free to those whose privacy is of zero value."
  7. Another delay won't matter by linuxci · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Another delay won't matter one bit, it's been delayed enough already that I'm sure any computer manufacturers already have contingency plans made in case the release is not ready. Also as businesses are generally slow adopters (many still run Win2k) not many will be waiting for that release (I don't understand why they're releasing to corporates first and then consumers, it's eather ready or it's not).

    As is the case with many of you, I'm not going to be queueing outside in the rain waiting for the first store with vista in to open (well I'd be crazy to I use OS X and Linux at home and Linux and Windows at work and I'm not going to pay to upgrade a work machine!), all the interesting features from the product were cut so it looses whatever geek appeal an MS product can ever have so now it's probably best that they make sure they deliver the most polished product they can possibly do.

    Things have changed a lot since the XP launch days, now Mac OS X is a very mature product and as Macs are Intel now some people may buy a Mac so that they can hedge their bets and run either Vista or OSX depending on what they prefer, a rushed and unpolished Vista would really make the Mac shine. Also there's a lot more user focus on the Linux desktop such as ubuntu, not to mention Live CD's which are a great way for people to try out Linux with no risk - although live CD's are not new, I remember a Slackware CD from 1996 that you could run from, but these days they're a whole lot more user friendly with decent hardware detection.

    1. Re:Another delay won't matter by Teun · · Score: 2, Interesting
      Another delay won't matter one bit, it's been delayed enough already that I'm sure any computer manufacturers already have contingency plans made in case the release is not ready.

      You can say that again!
      Have you also noticed the number of new (not just top of the line) computers being offered with standard 2 Gb of memory? That's surely not because of the applications that the average person is running.
      All that memory was ordered months ago expecting it to be mated with Vista around now.

      --
      "The likes of Facebook and WhatsApp are free to those whose privacy is of zero value."
  8. Here come the "I am not upgrading to Vista" Posts by Blahbooboo3 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    As usual, with any Vista announcement come the big proclamations saying "Oh, I am not upgrading to vista." Ya ya, whatever....

    People said the SAME thing about XP here as well. 5 years later I bet almost all of you windows folks are running XP at this point. Eventually, you will want to buy a new computer and just like XP did, it will come with Vista. Yes, of course people will claim they are going to OS X but I'll believe it when I see the Mac % of worldwide market go above 5%.

    Basically everyone will switch one way or another to Vista whether to play some game or some other Vista only application. Microsoft knows & understands this having seen this in all of its Windows releases. That's why they are basically just doing whatever they want...as we all will eventually be assimilated :)

    BTW, I am a closet Mac fanboy :)

  9. Oh for Christ's sake by Tim+C · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Who cares? Seriously, what is this obssession with Vista's launch date? I don't believe that the majority of people here are eagerly awaiting it, so they can rush out, buy it and install it, so why are we hanging on every single piece of non-news concerning it?

    It'll launch when it launches. You'll get it (or not) when you get it. Until then, why the fascination? Anyone would think it was the Second Coming that we were waiting for...

  10. Re:Here come the "I am not upgrading to Vista" Pos by l3v1 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    5 years later I bet almost all of you windows folks are running XP at this point

    Emphasis added. That's the point. 5 years from now ? Who knows. But thing is, as with XP (and FYI very many people, companies, etc. don't even use XP yet) there will probably not be an enormous rush to switch in the beginning. Especially since it will require many people to buy new computers (since most of them don't build their systems and many just usually buy new PCs instead of changing components).
     

    --
    I am putting myself to the fullest possible use, which is all I can think that any conscious entity can ever hope to do.
  11. Re:Here come the "I am not upgrading to Vista" Pos by TheRaven64 · · Score: 2, Insightful
    People said the SAME thing about XP here as well.

    I did. I was on Win2K when XP came out. Now I have two laptops, one with FreeBSD and another with OS X.

    If I were a game developer, I wouldn't consider using DirectX 10 for a while. At launch, the Vista market share will be tiny; smaller than the Mac market share. It might even be the opportunity for OpenGL to gain some mass-market traction again; a game written using OpenGL can take advantage of all the latest GPU features (some via extensions only, but game engine developers tend to write slightly different pipelines for different cards anyway), and will run on all versions of Windows, and be much easier to port to Mac, PS3 and Wii (not to mention mobile devices, many of which support OpenGL ES these days).

    --
    I am TheRaven on Soylent News
  12. REASONABLY? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful
    Microsoft can reasonably say 'don't blame us' and point the finger at the EC.

    Complete crap. The commission's position is that Microsoft must obey the law. That means no anti-competitive conduct. Microsoft want some presciptive agreement that they can work around instead.

    It's like someone being told it's illegal to murder someone and then coming back time after time saying "well, suppose I shoot her?", "well suppose I hit her with an icepick, is that okay?", "I just want you to give me an exact list of the things I mustn't do so I can stay within the law. Food supplements are okay, right, suppose I just put some 'supplements' in her food, can you say that's okay?", "just tell me every way I mustn't kill her so I'm in the clear for anything else". Nobody is stupid enough to fall for this. It's insultingly absurd.

    There is nothing remotely reasonable about Mcirosoft's behaviour on this. Instead of obeying the law they want to "negotiate" with the legal process. Seriously; they use that word themselves. Then they say they show "goodwill" by complying with parts of what they are legally REQUIRED to do. Seriously, who the fuck do they think they are?

    Apologies for the tone but their conduct in this really gets to me. And no, I'm not a generic Microsoft basher, I use a lot of their software but it's about time for someone to teach them that laws apply to them too. Hopefully the EC can do that.
  13. How to procure Vista by texaport · · Score: 2, Insightful
    1 . Purchase XP-home next Sunday 15 Oct from a local retailer with thirty day return policy.

    2 . Wait for Microsoft to make a retroactive Vista upgrade announcment in mid-November.

    3a. Return software should Microsoft not do the obvious.
    3b. Get at least $150 credit toward Vista

    4 . Unload XP-Home to someone for $20 loss.

  14. I have to sew a small seed here.. by The+Living+Fractal · · Score: 3, Insightful

    " A delay for Vista now would be convenient for Microsoft, Gartner analyst David Mitchell-Smith argued, because 'when people start complaining about the delay, Microsoft can reasonably say 'don't blame us' and point the finger at the EC.' ... Mitchell-Smith also noted that Microsoft wants to avoid further litigation, as it is already facing legal action by Symantec and Adobe Systems."

    I really don't see how a delay is good for Microsoft, no matter who's fault it is. I mean, OK so I follow this guy's logic and Microsoft says to me 'don't blame us, blame the EC'. Of course then I go to the EC and according to them the blame is squarely on Microsoft for being at fault in the first place. So it just leads back to Microsoft anyway, which I hardly imagine could be 'convenient' for them.

    Sort of like if I committed a crime and, to explain why I haven't gotten out of jail yet, I said 'don't blame me! blame the government for putting me here!'. Yeah, because it had nothing at all to do with the fact that I started it?

    TLF

    --
    I do not respond to cowards. Especially anonymous ones.
  15. Lawsuits delay vista? by nurb432 · · Score: 2, Funny

    Cool, perhaps there is a use for attornies afterall..

    --
    ---- Booth was a patriot ----
  16. Re:Symantec & McAfee Suing? by Anomalyst · · Score: 2, Informative
    Vista's different security system
    There, fixed that for ya.
    --
    There is no right to feel safe thru security vaudeville at the expense of everyone's freedom, privacy and tax money.
  17. Re:Here come the "I am not upgrading to Vista" Pos by laffer1 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The computer industry needs a windows lauch. A new windows releases forces people to upgrade their software. They also tend to buy new PCs. Semiconductor stocks are doing rather poorly right now. If intel or amd start moving units, it will definetely have an impact on the stock market. While I'm a fan of open source software, I also realize that Microsoft and Apple do stimulate the economy.

    I've attempted to test several betas of vista and have been unable to install any of them on any of my PCs for lack of hardware support. I'm already specing out new hardware for a potential vista upgrade and something to test AMD64 versions of MidnightBSD. In my opinion anyone in the open source community should look at vista very closely. Its not only our competition, but also the basis of what end users think operating systems are like. We know Microsoft didn't get this one right. Its just a matter of how wrong it really is.