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TV Really Might Cause Autism

Alien54 writes "Cornell University researchers are reporting what appears to be a statistically significant relationship between autism rates and television watching by children under the age of 3. The researchers studied autism incidence in California, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Washington state. They found that as cable television became common in California and Pennsylvania beginning around 1980, childhood autism rose more in the counties that had cable than in the counties that did not. They further found that in all the Western states, the more time toddlers spent in front of the television, the more likely they were to exhibit symptoms of autism disorders. The Cornell study represents a potential bombshell in the autism debate."

89 of 619 comments (clear)

  1. OMG! BAN TV! by NalosLayor · · Score: 5, Funny

    It's for the children! Won't somebody PLEASE think of the children! FORGET IT! Ban electricity! For the children! For the children!

    1. Re:OMG! BAN TV! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      You dolt! The answer is obviously to ban children...

    2. Re:OMG! BAN TV! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting
      OMG! BAN TV!


      Would that be so bad really? I gave up on TV years ago and haven't really missed it. The decent stuff comes out on dvds anyway, the occasional funny/interesting clip can be found on youtube and for everything else there is bittorrent.

      Imo TV is just a way to sell ads - and apparently that can be accomplished by showing low quality, stupid, "show-me-your-tits", "the-sky-is-falling" undiluted crap... or maybe I'm just getting old.

      *posting anonymously as not to be identified as being old and angry:)
    3. Re:OMG! BAN TV! by hcdejong · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I gave up on TV years ago

      No, you didn't. You still watch TV, you just use different hardware. This has some advantages (fewer ads, less 'TV network' crap), but it's still TV.

    4. Re:OMG! BAN TV! by tomknight · · Score: 5, Insightful
      I disagree. TV (television) is based on broadcasting, watching DVDs etc isn't.
      Okay, that's a little petty, but here's a real difference - people without TVs choose what to watch, when to watch it. People with TVs so often just sit down in front of it and then vegitate, accepting whatever crap is shovelled to them. I'm sure there are plenty of people out there (yourself included?) who will then jump up and shout "But I only turn it on when there's something I really want to watch!" The difference is that people without TVs choose to watch less - they are generally more selective. Speaking for myself, I have a lot of fun times with my wife and daughter - playing games, reading books, talking. I kind of feel sorry for people who miss out on that sort of thing because "There's something really good on TV".

      --
      Oh arse
    5. Re:OMG! BAN TV! by nospam007 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Ditto here. I'm sure Amazon likes it because I read much, much more since I ditched the TV.
      My set was broken and so I asked my wife to call the TV-guy. She said, you watch it more than I so why don't you call him?
      After a couple of months, when still nobody had called, I ditched it and put a bookshelf in its place.
      Never regretted it.
      More sex, more talking, more reading, more workouts, more movie-going, more hiking, more biking, more everything.
      TV is really time-stealer and when you at last are hooked to a TV-show, the idiots cancel it!

    6. Re:OMG! BAN TV! by hcdejong · · Score: 2, Interesting

      The difference is that people without TVs choose to watch less - they are generally more selective.

      Generally, yes. But it's entirely possible to have a TV and a cable subscription, and still be selective. Thanks to the VCR, I don't have to conform to the broadcast schedule, and I get to skip the ads. I hardly watch anything 'live' these days.

      I suspect we're arguing about semantics, though. IMO, 'watching TV' encompasses anything you do with a TV set, this includes watching DVD movies, but also TV programmes that have been encoded into a digital file (torrent). There's no difference between watching CSI on cable or as a downloaded file.

      DVD/torrent is just a more convenient method (than a VCR) of
      a. choosing the programming you like, and
      b. timeshifting.

    7. Re:OMG! BAN TV! by peterarm · · Score: 5, Funny

      don't substitute, merge: Slashdautism

    8. Re:OMG! BAN TV! by Tony+Hoyle · · Score: 4, Insightful

      PVRs remove this problem of course... A 3 year old might have difficulty even with Tivo though.

      There's a growing trend of sitting the child in the front of a childrens channel then forgetting about them.. the TV becomes the babysitter. That's the key to the problem - the parent isn't interacting with the child.. in fact its only social contact is through wierd blokes in brightly coloured bird costumes who sing a lot..

    9. Re:OMG! BAN TV! by clickclickdrone · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Out of interest, how much TV do people here watch? I see maybe an hour a week if I'm lucky on a real TV although I watch perhaps another 1-2 hours a week on my laptop during my daily commute. I've seen surveys where they ask how many hours a day you watch and some go up to 18 hours or more. Say it ain't so?

      --
      I want a list of atrocities done in your name - Recoil
    10. Re:OMG! BAN TV! by indifferent+children · · Score: 4, Funny
      When is "Show-me-your-tits" on?

      In Europe, it's on every night. They name it different things in different countries. Try "Colpo Grosso" in Italy, "Tutti Frutti" in Germany, etc.

      In America, it's only on for about two seconds, during a "football" game, to commemorate hundreds of hours of pending Congressional outrage.

      --
      Censorship is telling a man he can't have a steak just because a baby can't chew it. --Mark Twain
    11. Re:OMG! BAN TV! by mgabrys_sf · · Score: 4, Funny

      WAIT WAIT wait wait wait - hold it hold it hold it - hold EVERYTHING - EXCUSE me?

      Did you say "More sex"?

      Oh shit - don't you DARE let that one get out into the general public - the empire might collapse!

    12. Re:OMG! BAN TV! by twistedsymphony · · Score: 3, Informative

      I don't really think the argument is as much about semantics as you think it is. But you are correct that it comes down to how you define it. Personally I think the act of "watching TV" under debate here is the act of sitting down and watching cable live for an extended period of time. Even if you're sitting down at a particular time to watch a particular show you like.

      There is something fundamentally different about the experience when the network dictates when you watch, and dictate what you watch during the commercial breaks. How often do people hang around after the show just because? How many people have a 20 to 30 minutes to kill before the show so they turn the TV on early and watch whatever is on in the mean time?

      I think a majority of people who "watch TV" basically just sit down and accept whatever is on. It's a distinctly different activity then pre-recording a show using a DVR or VCR, or watching a file on your PC or on DVD. Some TVs show do generally have worthwhile entertainment that can spark intellectual discussions with friends and family, perhaps even some introspect. But viewing it on the networks schedule you map out a larger portion of your time, you're subject to the massive amount of FUD in advertising (which IMO is where most of the real evil resides), and you're often tempted into watching just another half hour, just another half hour, just another half hour.

      When people say "watching TV" they're typically referring to "watching network TV" Anything else is just video entertainment... but that's another argument altogether.

      Basically when watching it "live" as you say then you're molding your life around the TV show, as opposed to putting the TV show where it best fits into your life. It fundamentally changes the role TV plays in your life reguardless of what shows you're watching.

    13. Re:OMG! BAN TV! by fyngyrz · · Score: 2, Interesting
      There's no difference between watching CSI on cable or as a downloaded file.

      Actually, it is quite possible that there is a significant difference. Television refresh rates (30 Hz per interlaced frame in the USA, 25 Hz in some other countries) are much lower than typical monitors (60 Hz, non-interlaced, or higher) and furthermore, MPEG and other encodings result in an entirely different set of artifacts and display update rates and distributions than does broadcast television.

      The assumption underlying your statement is that it is the content that is the problem; that may not be the case. Having a light flashing in your eyes at a rate you can see, but tend to ignore, may be part of (or even all of) the problem. My point is, "watching TV" includes a broad group of experiences, some obvious, some not. Television hardware does not present content the same way a computer monitor does.

      --
      I've fallen off your lawn, and I can't get up.
    14. Re:OMG! BAN TV! by orangesquid · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Let's suppose that there are three types of children: N, A, and pA. A kids are autistic no matter what. N kids are never autistic. pA kids may or may not realize full autism. Suppose that the amount of time that pA kids get to interact with society is an important factor in whether they develop normally (like an N child) or in an autistic manner (like an A child).

      Here's a thought experiment. We have three populations, P1, P2, and P3, which all have the same constituency of N, A, pA. As the children age, we can re-categorize pA children as either N or A. P1 will be our control group: they will interact with society and watch a little bit of television. P2 will be like P1, but be exposed to more TV. P3 will model lazy parenting: the children won't get much social interaction, and the only thing they have to pass the time is TV, so they'll get a lot of it.

      If watching too much TV can promote autism, P2 will have many pA -> A. OTOH, if it's a lack of exposure to social interaction that causes underdevelopment of brain circuitry that regulates social interaction, P2 should resemble P1 and P3 will have many pA -> A.

      Even if there is a very strong temporal link between two variables, correlation and causation are tricky. You can't always say, "The reason that my alarm clock goes off in the morning is because the sun rises in the sky," even if you can point to some region where the sun is obscured by the terrain and people don't use alarm clocks.

      I would love for non-interactive, advertisement-soaked, eye-candy-filled, dumbed-down media to be less prevalent. When Internet access began to be ubiquitous, I got excited, but then I saw and heard all of the media companies wanting to turn the Internet into a new form of TV.

      I know, my examples have bad analogies, poor metaphors, logical flaws, et caetera. But I hope someone gets my point. Lots of people think "pot makes you stupid" -- but maybe it's just that stupid people enjoy pot more than intelligent people do, which could explain statistics.

      Basically, there are correlations, relationships, and patterns EVERYWHERE. However, it's very rare that someone knows exactly WHY something is happening. If we knew exactly how something happened, usually it would make it trivial to manipulate.

      --
      --TheOrangeSquid Is it any wonder things seem so awry? We swim in a sea of confusion and don't have to think to survive
    15. Re:OMG! BAN TV! by miyako · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Personally, I can give you three answers to this question, depending on how you define "watch tv". Although I have a television set, it is used exclusively for video games and DVDs. I have watched maybe 1 hour of television on a television in the last several months, and even then that was because I wasn't at home and had nothing else to do. As for watching television shows on DVD or that I've downloaded, I would say probably about 40 minutes a day (about the length of a 1 hour show without ads). This is because generally, if there is a show I like, I'll pick it up on DVD and watch an episode (or two if it's a half-hour show) while I have dinner- sometimes I'll watch two episodes if I'm cooking something that doesn't require a lot of attention. The last sort of way of measuring I guess would be how often I have something on, even if I'm not strictly watching it. This would probably bring my average up to about 3 hours an evening. A lot of times I will put a show on and sort of half pay attention to it while I do other things for an hour or so- most of the time it's something that I've seen a few times before, and it does't really reqiure my full attention. Of course, I also listen to audio books a lot too to fulfill the same gap (also in the car on my way to work and often during work I'll listen to audio books as well).
      Just judging based on what other people seem to say about their habbits on slashdot, I would gess that there are quite a few people who are similar to me in their TV watching habbits.

      --
      Famous Last Words: "hmm...wikipedia says it's edible"
    16. Re:OMG! BAN TV! by beckerist · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I think it's easy to blame TV's for "creating autism" or whatever, but think about it: You have a screaming child that, regardless of what you do as a parent, is never EVER soothed by ANYTHING. This child won't talk, at least coherently. This child only eats 20% of what you put in front of him or her, and won't stop crying when in the shower, bath, bed, school, store, car... After 20 straight hours of screams you set them in front of the TV............hear that? Peace and quiet!

      I think the fact that the TV is something that Autistic individuals can relate to IS NOT EVEN CLOSE to the same as the TV being responsible for it! Try living with someone who's Autistic, you'd be amazed at the variance in attitude between "TV Time" and "life."

    17. Re:OMG! BAN TV! by LarsWestergren · · Score: 3, Funny

      "Please resist the urge to talk to love ones, or have sex, as years of TV radiation has made your genitals withered and useless".
      Chief Wiggum: *lifts blanket and looks* "Well I'll be damned!"

      --

      Being bitter is drinking poison and hoping someone else will die

    18. Re:OMG! BAN TV! by pizzaman100 · · Score: 3, Funny
      Basically, there are correlations, relationships, and patterns EVERYWHERE. However, it's very rare that someone knows exactly WHY something is happening.

      Unless you're an attorney specializing in tort law. Then you know exactly why. And the answer is whoever has the deepest pockets. Now how long until the first class action lawsuit is filed against the cable companies? :)

    19. Re:OMG! BAN TV! by An+anonymous+Frank · · Score: 2, Interesting

      It was a dark and stormy night, in the wee hours of the morning, when I awoke, so to speak, to notice myself before the tube, watching crap, utter crap, and it scared the excrement outta me. --I quit TV then, in self-defense.

      Ever since, I've watched many friends and strangers alike ending up convulsed, bewildered, confused, unable, or perhaps unwilling to process the information, that is, the idea that I didn't have a TV, and that I otherwise behaved like a normal person (at least) in public.

      Over the years, only a handful of individuals out of the entire lot actually retained that knowledge, the rest simply refused to, brushing it off as non-sense. A few litterally got scared, or at least that's what their body language let on; they couldn't fathom an existence without TV.

      Anyhow, observing their reactions all this time has had me reflect on why it was so frightening for them. It occured to me that if only a small portion of the population don't have a TV per se, that it can work, but not if the majority did(n't). I think that the general population grew into it, into "being entertained" without much effort or real planning on their part, to a point where they've completely delegated this responseability to the networks.

      It also seems there is this general boredom that has tainted the hard-core TV-viewing public in the last few years. This puzzled me greatly at the time because I couldn't relate no matter how hard I tried, and I don't think reality tv really helped them either. I think that perhaps it's a bit like fighting inertia, to pull one's self out of passive entertainment, to active living or leasure, most simply can't do it, or realize that this is the next step.

      I wonder if it's made them passive elsewhere in their lives. Might that explain this last depressed-by-default generation?

    20. Re:OMG! BAN TV! by Roblimo · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I currently watch one - two NFL football games per week in season, and between two and three hours (minus PVR ad-skip time of 20% or so) per week year-round, mostly shows my wife wants to watch and I watch with her to be sociable.

      Put it this way: I have a small TV in my office that I haven't had on in the last two years except during a few major news events.

      Years ago, when I had my limo *and* wrote freelance, people asked me how I managed to keep such a hectic schedule. The answer was simple: I didn't watch TV at all during that period, so I had four more hours of work time per day then the average American without sacrificing any other activities.

      - Robin

    21. Re:OMG! BAN TV! by ichimunki · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Unbelievable. As if knowing what's on TV is an important part of a healthy social life.

      The idea here is that his children were actually socializing and focused on meaningful, fulfilling life activities, rather than spending time staring at the blinking lights. So what if some of their social time was a bit awkward? All kids run into awkward social situations. The TV-free kids were probably better prepared to deal with it because they spent more time being social than their peers in the first place.

      --
      I do not have a signature
  2. What about the internet by SniperClops · · Score: 4, Insightful

    What about internet use, with sites such as youtube, will that cause autism as well?

    1. Re:What about the internet by kahei · · Score: 5, Funny


      Other way around. Being dysfunctional in the first place causes increased MySpace and YouTube use.

      And, uh, I guess it also causes Slashdot posts such as this one.

      --
      Whence? Hence. Whither? Thither.
    2. Re:What about the internet by Trizor · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Aucontraire: MySpace and YouTube can cause retardation. A basic thought pattern I've observed at my highschool: "Oh hey, if I do somethintg stupid my video will be popular and people will like me." Another one: "Oh hey, if I do wild, crazy, stupid, and illegal stuff then write in lurid and exagerated detail about it, my myspace will get a lot of hits and people will like me." There is an underlying cause, true, of a complete lack of self esteem and ability to make rational decisions without the help of the masses, but MySpace and YouTube have been acting as amplifyers for this.

  3. Reverse correlation? by MostAwesomeDude · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Well, cable television was becoming more prevalent, yes, but wasn't detection of autism and recognition of its status as a disorder also becoming more acknoledged?

    Oh, and exactly what debate is there about autism? I think I missed something here.

    --
    ~ C.
    1. Re:Reverse correlation? by tomknight · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I think the increase is due to the public awareness of autism, leading them to suggest to the doctor that this might be the problem. It's not unknown for the doctor not to know what the problem is until it's been pointed out to them. This is especially true for the less usual problems that a general practitioner might encounter.

      --
      Oh arse
    2. Re:Reverse correlation? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "It's doubtfull there would be a correlation between autism recognition in doctors and cable TV availability."

      Which is why studies are done, so there is at least a control, or at least comparison between groups.

      I could equally say you are full of bunk. Early on, cable TV often entered growing markets, as population density increases it becomes more economically viable to run the lines. This may correlate very well with a rise in the number of health care providers in a given area. Here in Pennsylvania, doctors are only in certain rural areas because of state sponsorship or to have their loans forgiven. Most of these were family physicians. As a county's economics got better, the greater the likely availability of health care providers.

      That said, I don't think that is the case. But it doesn't make the conclusions of the study right either. I only skimmed the first few pages of the study, but it seems this is not actually observing children watching, but correlating a correlation back on itself. Basically, bad weather causes TV viewership to increase in children generally. So they checked if autism rates rose or were higher in areas with bad weather, which is found to correlate. They then cross check that with cable TV growth and find the trend continues; this second is done to try to rule out other variables.

      Actual observation of children watching TV does not appear to have been done; these were not health professionals doing the study, but economics/policy folks (which in no way diminishes the study, YOU have to realize the extent in order to interpret the results as they might affect you, and at the very least indicates further study should be done in this area, WHICH IS A GOOD THING). It will be interesting to see if this is due to TV watching, inattention from parents who watch TV, emissions from TV sets, even interlacing and/or frame rate (NTSC vs. PAL):

      (1) For all we know, parents who watch more TV pay less attention to their children, which may reduce social interaction and playtime with adults which correlates with a rise in autism.

      (2) The meaning may be different too than simply detrimental--watching Sesame Street early on triggers faster maturation of certain neurons which may lead to autism, but may also lead to smarter kids for a host of other children too. This is not too hard to imagine as there are frequent positive and negative effects to stimuli; a vaccine often protects individuals, and groups due to the herd effect, but if you are that one patient that has a bad reaction to one (such as paralysis), you don't give a damn that others are protected, do you?

    3. Re:Reverse correlation? by gameforge · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Autism is the next ADD.

      Here's how I see it:

      ADD started out being kinda rare, and only those kids with the obvious behavior problems were diagnosed with ADD; Ritilin seemed effective for them.

      Ten or so years later, any kid who tapped their foot during breakfast got a mouthful of Ritilin on their way out the door. EVERYBODY had ADD (and the former behavior issue became known as ADHD).

      Now, finally, ADD is more common than brown eyes (in the US anyway), but thankfully kiddy speed (Ritilin) is only generally prescribed for ADHD. That's good; it keeps the high schoolers from chopping it up and snorting it (seen it done by numerous people). ADD is now a disease of convenience; it's actually normal to have ten projects going at once, each of which is 1/3 done. It's also normal to finish one before you move on to the next. Neither behaviors are affected by Ritilin at all, trust me. But if you need an excuse for your bad grades, your kid's bad grades, your excessive passion and/or ambition for anything, by all means, get yourself some ADD.

      Ten years ago, Autistic kids were incredibly rare. They were almost like Albino's - that rare. They were kids who were horribly sensitive to noise (you talking quietly sounds like a scream); they were generally mute; very emotionally sensitive; and in many cases, very gifted & talented (my mom's doctor's kid is REALLY Autistic... despite sensitivity to sound, he can play the piano like George Gershwin, no shit).

      Today, if you seem shy on some days, you are Autistic. Now I can't really see excessive TV under (or over) the age of 3 resulting in shyness (I'm actually lying).

      You see, TV doesn't cause Autism, medical professionals constitute Autism with the severity of the symptoms they choose to interpret as Autism. If you're 3, and you're ever so mildly reluctant to smile at the doc that day, and loud noise makes you cry (still makes me cry & I'm 24), you're probably running the word Autism through his brain, if not asking for a "referral to a specialist" (and hence a statistic as an Autistic case). I mean, I'm sure it's a little more involved, but that's the impression that I get at least.

      I mean Cornell University, okay, I suppose. This kind of news IMMEDIATELY makes me suspicious of the drug companies. It's like they want everyone to expect their kid to become autistic in five years when their new Autism pez comes out. But, Cornell ain't a drug company, right, so I dunno...

    4. Re:Reverse correlation? by rasilon · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The sensationalistic version of the debate is "Does Autism actually exist?", which is kept alive by the fact that the simplistic answer is quite likely to be "no" which runs counter to most people's observation.

      But that's the problem with simplifying the dabate to that level -- the answer seems entirely wrong. The question should be something like "Is there a single epidemiology behind the colletion of symptoms known generically as Autism? Or is Autism a too-generalised term used to cover a number of unrelated problems that cannot be treated, or even considered together? Might Autism in fact be just the tail of several kinds of natural variation and thus not something that can properly be labeled a disorder?"

    5. Re:Reverse correlation? by Xiph1980 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Although I agree with you on the overdiagnosing of various "mental diseases" it can very well also be allergies manifesting them in these ways.
      I'm allergic to (well, not really allergic, but hypersensitive) sugar and various related sweeteners like glucose etc. Before this was known I couldn't handle any criticism, loud noises etc etc. Used to cry a lot (the real heavy tantrums) and everything. I guess I could've been diagnosed with a million mental disorders, however luckily my parents found out it was an oversensitivity towards sugars and a type of foodcoloring.
      Now I'm perfectly fine. No moodswings anymore etc. Still nuts as hell though, but who defined "normal" anyway. :p

      There are more and more artificial stuff (artificial aroma's, food colorings, added sweeteners, preservatives etc. etc.) mixed with the things we eat, and it's shown that allergies or hypersensitivities towards these ingredients can cause all kinds of weird stuff with someone's personality, without causing real visible allergic reactions.
      Diagnosing these types of allergies is also difficult because stopping to eat these types of foods doesn't usually have an immediate effect. It's not an on/off switch, but the effects are reduced gradually so it can be very difficult to quickly see wether or not someone is allergic (opposed to the acute reactions testable by those armscratch tests).

      Most likely though it's a mix of factors.... a bit of television, a bit of allergies, and a bit of overactivity of the doctors :)

      --
      Manuals are your last resort only
    6. Re:Reverse correlation? by rvw · · Score: 2, Insightful

      How about the idea that autistic children like to watch TV more than "normal" children? These children are very sensitive to repetition. First you have all the daily shows at a regular time. Then the medium TV by itself is repetitive, the frequency of the display. I read somewhere that this really does more than you realize. (Think of McLuhan's "The medium is the message".)

    7. Re:Reverse correlation? by bwalling · · Score: 3, Informative
      The reports of overdiagnosis of ADD/ADHD are way overblown. Yes, it happened/happens, but it's not as if pills are just stuffed into kids, and the fact that there is some overdiagnosis is no reason to doubt the existence of a condition or to disparage anyone that truly has it by exaggerating statements of overdiagnosis and minimizing any real effects of the condition.
      Neither behaviors are affected by Ritilin at all, trust me.

      Sounds like perhaps you don't have ADD if the drugs didn't work for you. Your sole experience is not scientific proof. I know plenty of people that are helped by the medication (I don't know any kids, just adults). And besides, the meds aren't going to finish your work for you, they're going to help with the mental block that's preventing you from doing so.
    8. Re:Reverse correlation? by 11223 · · Score: 3, Informative

      Autism is not a binary condition. There is a range of disorders called Autism Spectrum Disorders that range from Asperger's Syndrome to the low-functioning Autism that you cover.

      Each of these manifests itself differently. Having an Autism Spectrum Disorder implies some level of impairment in social functioning, but where you are on the spectrum indicates how much desire you have to engage in social interactions at all.

      I think the greater knowledge of the spectrum disorders in the medical community has led to the greater incidence of diagnosis. It may also be the case that the incidence of autism is increasing, though I would be surprised if TV was the cause. Simon Baron Cohen (he's Sascha's cousin) has theorized that Autism represents an extremely systematizing mind, and that kind of mind (in my experience) tends to shy away from the disordered chaos of TV and towards systems and obsessions (trains, cars, computers, etc.)

      If a diagnosis is provided with the intent of helping the child learn how to cope with social situations better, I don't see anything wrong with it. While I am opposed to the search for a "cure" for a spectrum disorder that also includes a number of functioning, intelligent, and unique individuals, I feel that social interaction strategies can be learned and applied to help children with autism learn to communicate and function better. If our goal is to help each child (or adult) to learn how to accomplish the things they want to do, then I don't see how greater awareness is a problem, even if there is some amount of bandwagoning that goes on.

    9. Re:Reverse correlation? by Pflipp · · Score: 4, Informative

      The problem I am having with the way things are going, is that Autism is suggested to be a lifetime handicap, while the different kinds of people that are labeled "autistic" these days may well have a simple development delay -- which can be treated.

      I, myself, am known to panic under stress, resulting in somewhat manic-depressive behaviour (I get intensely absorbed in whatever it is I am doing, or I show signs of depression) combined with tension problems. People are trying to see if the label fits me as we speak.

      But whenever I go to the library to get information on Autism, I recognize so little about myself there. For instance, I am not rigid at all; I dislike talking about exact topics; I have a vivid imagination.

      There may well be an interesting theoretical causality, but it doesn't help me much. I haven't had any advice or help whatsoever from the shrinks -- only tests, tests, tests, and more to come (it takes a very long time to check for autism) -- and the books on the subject don't help me manage myself.

      Instead, I have learned a lot from reading about bipolar II, and managed, with much effort, to stabilize my mood so that I can think clearly again.

      I insisted on intake that I learned about the underlying cause of my problems, so that I could learn to manage them, so you may say that I have caused my own problem. What frustrates me more, however, is that I have also had to solve it myself with so little help from the experts.

      --
      "We can confirm that Debian does *not* ship the version with the trojan horse. Our version predates it." [CA-2002-28]
  4. I wondered why I had trouble focusing... by The+Great+Pretender · · Score: 2, Funny

    oh that's A.D.D., what was this post about?

    --
    A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort.
  5. Argh. by tkittel · · Score: 4, Funny

    Damn, I read that as "TV Really Might Cause Atheism".

    How disappointing!

    1. Re:Argh. by kalirion · · Score: 2, Funny

      No, I'm pretty sure it's "Reality Might Cause Atheism"

    2. Re:Argh. by Trailer+Trash · · Score: 2, Funny
      Damn, I read that as "TV Really Might Cause Atheism".

      As a Christian myself, let me assure you that tv preachers definitely have that effect on me.

  6. Say it with me... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Everyone, let's say this together. Come on, I want everyone to join in. Let's all yell it at the top of our lungs until the media hears us. Ready? Here we go:

    CORRELATION DOES NOT EQUAL CAUSATION!
    CORRELATION DOES NOT EQUAL CAUSATION!
    CORRELATION DOES NOT EQUAL CAUSATION!

    Now stop reporting on every correlation between disease X and social variable Y as though it were somehow equivalent to a randomized double-blind study on the effects of Y on X. Thank you.

    1. Re:Say it with me... by EraserMouseMan · · Score: 3, Funny

      To help people understand this better, I think we should run a TV special about correlation and causation.

    2. Re:Say it with me... by Aladrin · · Score: 4, Insightful

      There is no 'blindly' about it. I don't usually yell this, but I'm going to quote the GPP for truth, here.

      "CORRELATION DOES NOT EQUAL CAUSATION!"

      Correlation may show signs that they are related. It may even show extremely strong, almost irrefutable signs. But it never proves it. Everyone that screams this saying knows this.

      If you really think higher correlation means causation, take a look at venganza.org again. The correlation between the lack of pirates and global warming is approaching 'certainty'. It's obvious to anyone with half a brain that the lack of pirates does not cause global warming. But the correlation is extremely strong.

      Of course it sometimes happens that there is causation that is causing the correlation. That's just common sense, too. But it's a logical fallacy to believe that correlation means causation.

      Some light reading: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_implies_c ausation

      And BTW, the study could EASILY be backwards. Maybe autistic children make parents move to towns with cable. It's just as likely, from the given facts.

      --
      "If you make people think they're thinking, they'll love you; But if you really make them think, they'll hate you." - DM
    3. Re:Say it with me... by Emeye · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I had been introduced to an opinion through my sister that the high levels of autism in parts of california were actually due to the number of socially awkward people (geeks) moving in, meeting each other, and producing a child together that was more socially awkward. I'm not sure exactly how autism carries, and I'm too lazy to look it up, but would the 1980s not be a time for this to happen? And woulddn't any geek moving into an area want cable TV rather than just the basic channels?

    4. Re:Say it with me... by nwbvt · · Score: 3, Informative

      And here is another one I want everyone to repeat:

      'MIGHT' DOES NOT EQUAL 'DOES'!
      'MIGHT' DOES NOT EQUAL 'DOES'!
      'MIGHT' DOES NOT EQUAL 'DOES'!

      The title of this article is "TV Really Might Cause Autism". Who the hell is reporting that it is the cause? Who is claiming that this statistically significant relationship is equal to a 'randomized double-blind study'? And how exactly do you propose one do a 'randomized double-blind study' on autism anyways? The problem isn't that studies like this that present statistical relationships make the news, it is that people for some reason fail to read words like "might", "may", or "possibly" and instead read a certainity which no one claimed existed.

      --
      Mathematics is made of 50 percent formulas, 50 percent proofs, and 50 percent imagination.
    5. Re:Say it with me... by Archibald+Buttle · · Score: 2, Interesting

      What lack of pirates?

      There are pirates out there sailing the seas. Quite a few of them.

      It's not easy to find news articles about pirates, since the word has been stolen by the media to denote copyright infringers, however there are some news articles out there.

      Additionally since piracy usually happens in international waters outside of the legal juristiction of any country there are rarely any prosecutions.

  7. the page quote by krajo · · Score: 4, Funny
    I love how the quote at the bottom of the page is:

    "Toddlers are the stormtroopers of the Lord of Entropy."

    I guess not anymore, huh?

    --
    Learn to separate truth from illusion. Because in this world, it's the hardest thing to do.
  8. A correlation shows no cause by cyclop · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I call bullshit.

    That is, it is entirely possible (and plausible) that a correlation exists. However I'd interpret it in the reverse way. That is, the study shows just that children born with autism are more likely to spend time watching TV (knowing the features of autism, this is entirely possible).

    Moreover, the existence of a correlation does not show necessarily a cause-effect relationship. Do you remember Lisa Simpson showing Homer a rock that protected from tigers?

    This kind of papers are what my collegues call "scientific pornography" -papers thrown up just to stir up controversy, but based on very fragile assumptions and with a few data inflated as much as possible. Quite a common occurrence, sadly, these days.

    --
    -- Patent no.123456: A way to personalize /. comments with a sig attached to the end.
    1. Re:A correlation shows no cause by arivanov · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Both authors are not members of the medical profession. Graduate school of management. Bleah... Move along...

      --
      Baker's Law: Misery no longer loves company. Nowadays it insists on it
      http://www.sigsegv.cx/
    2. Re:A correlation shows no cause by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

      I'd interpret it in the reverse way. That is, the study shows just that children born with autism are more likely to spend time watching TV (knowing the features of autism, this is entirely possible).

      And your explanation for why more children being born with autism increases the incidence of cable?

      A statistically significant correlation between cable TV rollout and autism could mean one of four things: -

      1) Cable TV causes autism. A feasible, if unsupported, hypothesis.

      2) Autism creates a demand for cable TV. No obvious mechanism, so not very likely.

      3) A third factor links both. I.e. increased adult exposure to TV leads to a greater awareness of autistic spectrum disorders, causing a greater proportion of children with ASD to be recognised as such (this is merely an example of a third factor).

      4) The correlation is a product of chance. Statistically significant implies the probability of the correlation being by chance alone is less than, variously, 1 in 20 or 1 in 100. This does not mean it is not a chance event, merely that it is an unlikely one.

      No reasonable conclusions can be drawn from this single study. This is not to say it should be ignored, and certainly further studies should be conducted (preferably by pediatricians this time), but this is no justification for some massive brou-ha-ha about brain-rotting TV and the delinquent parents who sit their children in front of it.

      Probability of a journalist thinking the above? About 0.0, I'd say.

    3. Re:A correlation shows no cause by b0bby · · Score: 3, Interesting

      5) Autism is more likely to be detected in more technologically advanced areas, which also got cable tv first.

    4. Re:A correlation shows no cause by Fnkmaster · · Score: 2, Informative

      They are health economists (well, one of them is, and the other is an economist). Health economists do these kind of large scale public health studies all the time. They are using statistics and economics to investigate issues of public health concern, not looking for medical explanations of causes.

      If you look at the paper itself, the title may be provocative, but what they are actually doing is what health economists generally do in their research.

      Also - the way they are doing their analysis seems (to me at least) to address the question of correlation vs. causation fairly well, because they are breaking down data county by county and region by region, looking at other intermediating variables and so on. See pages 37-39 where this is addressed fairly well.

      You may take issue with their conclusions or their methodology, or the fact that they are examining a hypothesis that is not widely addressed in the medical community about a disease, but don't shit all over it just because they aren't doctors. Sometimes, from the micro perspective of a doctor, it may not be obvious what is causing a disease, whereas somebody trained in statistics who plays with some numbers from the NBER could find out something quite interesting.

  9. Content by foldingstock · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Perhaps the problem is not Television, but rather, the quality of the shows catching children's interests. I highly doubt educational tv is causing autism. The content on channels like nickelodeon, disny, and even MTV is highly lacking. The method of constantly changing frames and displaying lots or colors does keep someone watching, but it makes it hard to concentrate. Could this be the cause?

  10. Let's see... by NNKK · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Could there POSSIBLY be other factors at work?

    How about the increased understanding of and accurate diagnosis of autism and autism-related disorders around that time?

    How about the repetitive nature of television programming, especially kids shows, appealing to autistics as a source of consistency and comfort?

    How about the fact that the places getting cable were also the places getting elevated concentrations of geeks, who seem to have genetic quirks that have this tendancy to result in autism-like disorders? Could that POSSIBLY have ANYTHING to do with a rise in autism in Washington, _Oregon_, and *CALIFORNIA*?

    1. Re:Let's see... by KokorHekkus · · Score: 2, Interesting
      Could there POSSIBLY be other factors at work?
      A much more interesting study show that the age of the father might be a factor. From the BBC article:
      ...The UK and US researchers examined data on 132,271 children and said those born to men over 40 were six times more at risk than those born to men under 30....
      Source:http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/5313874.s tm

      Now, I haven't found any easily accessible figures on how the age of the fathers has changed over the years but I'd hazard a guess that it would more or less follow the development of the age of the mother. And the age of a first time mother has gone up in most countries (one article quoted 21.4 years in 1970 that had risen to 25.1 years in 2002, US figures)
    2. Re:Let's see... by Chris+Mattern · · Score: 3, Interesting

      > Doesn't match the hypothesis that improved diagnosis accounts for the difference, unless having
      > cable makes doctors more proficient.

      Of course, cable TV does not cause doctors to become more proficient. But it is not unlikely that
      the two are correlated, the link being personal wealth. As personal wealth increases, a family is
      more likely to have cable TV, and it is more likely to have access to better doctors. It is quite
      possible that this cause explains the data. More research on the matter would be good, of course.
      There is not enough data to clearly see cause and effect here.

      Chris Mattern

  11. All tubes by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

    All tubes causes autism, so internet as well...
    Dunno about TFTs

  12. Bhutan by Zouden · · Score: 5, Interesting

    The Himalayan country of Bhutan only started recieving television in 1999. This was followed by a drastic increase in crime (including murder) in the tiny nation. It would be interesting to see if there's also an increase in autism, as this study would suggest.

    --
    "A week in the lab saves an hour in the library"
  13. Re:Ahem... One tiny, tiny tiny problem... by Skippy_kangaroo · · Score: 3, Insightful

    NO!

    A solid background in statistics is required to launch a bombshell like this. It is likely that these authors have that background.

    Furthermore, economists (which one of the authors would seem to be based on his affiliation) are well trained in methods of robustly detecting effects in non-experimental data (such as this); whereas medical researchers are typically more involved with experimental data. Experimental data is much easier to deal with than non-experimental data. Indeed, one could argue that these sorts of studies are more likely to be carried out properly by economists trained in dealing with this sort of data.

    The important aspect of this is that there was a natural experiment carried out where some counties received cable television and others didn't. Provided the counties that received cable television did so for essentially random reasons, this data is the equivalent of a randomised experimental trial. As such, the standard argument that correlation does not prove causation is much weaker. There might well be a third factor at work here, but hold those knee-jerk reactions. One needs to be a good statistician to detect these correlations - medical researchers can work out the reasons later.

  14. Autism spectrum disorder by jandersen · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Before anybody starts jeering stupidly and making wise about this subject, perhaps people should read this article from Scientific American: http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?chanID=sa006&colI D=1&articleID=000B7F38-893D-152E-88E283414B7F0000

    Now for some of the usual comments people tend to spew out:

    Correlation is not causation

    This is true - but correlation indicates that there MAY BE a causation. Thus, when things are strongly correlated and there are other reasons to suspect a causal connection, it is well worth researching further.

    Increased awareness

    Perhaps 'increased awareness' of autism means that we discover more cases that were not previously recognised? Perhaps, but I don't think it is very likely. Full-blown autism is not something you overlook. It is a serious disorder that in most cases means lifelong disability, and it is unlike any other psychiatric disorder. The increased awareness, I suspect, mostly means that now we spot more of the milder cases, but it is not my impression that this is what this research is about.

    So why is it that people on this list are hostile to the idea that maybe TV can contribute to the emergence of autism? My guess is that this is because people on the list tend to be heavy consumers of passive entertainment, like TV and computer games; you don't want to hear that it may be bad for you.

    If you have read the article I referred to above, you will know that autism probably has a lot to do with the development of 'mirror neurons' in the brain; a neural system that makes us able to imitate what other people do. Like all neural systems, the mirror neurons need to be trained, and TV is probably not a very good role model for that, at least not if you are already weak in this area. So it is actually quite reasonable to suspect that watching too much TV at an early age may contribute to the development of autism.

  15. At least we know what its NOT caused by... by Bazman · · Score: 4, Informative
  16. Re:Ahem... One tiny, tiny tiny problem... by Fex303 · · Score: 3, Insightful
    NO! A solid background in statistics is required to launch a bombshell like this. It is likely that these authors have that background.

    This idea that all one needs to understand is statistics in order to comment on a scientific discipline is incorrect. Analysis of statistics is important, but in order to draw conclusions from them, one really has to understand the field they are being made in. It is a common issue with economists who tend to view the numbers as the be all and end all without understanding where they have come from and what the greater issues at play around the numbers might be.

    Provided the counties that received cable television did so for essentially random reasons, this data is the equivalent of a randomised experimental trial.
    That's such an idiotic assumption that it essentially destroys the research on its own. Genuine randomness is incredibly important is selecting participants for any sort of psychological experiment, and I can think of a number of reasons off the top of head why there would be a correlation between the availability of cable TV and incidence of autism.

    For example, increased wealth makes cable TV a viable business to set up, but also allows parents to pay to have autistic children treated resulting an increased number of reported cases. Alternately, cable TV may only be launched in areas with a certain level of technological uptake.

    There's also a theory that autism rates increase when technologically minded people start gathering together at workplaces (therefore breeding, therefore passing on (and concentrating) their autistic-related genes). There's another potential explanation for the correlation.

    This is certainly not a study that psychologists would credit as being worthwhile, which highlights why people should have some idea why they're talking about before dropping bombshells like this.

  17. Umbrellas cause autism by nucal · · Score: 3, Insightful

    CORRELATION DOES NOT EQUAL CAUSATION!

    I think that the study itself really drives this point home. If you read the actual paper (PDF file) a major part of their case is:

    1) When the weather is lousy, children watch more television
    2) Places with a lot of rain and snow have more autistic children

    I'd imagine that when the weather is bad, children also are more likely to use umbrellas. Therefore, by their logic, umbrellas cause autism.

  18. are u sure is TV only?? by jonytk · · Score: 2, Funny

    what the hell is TV ?? I only wach internet series 16 hours a day!!!

  19. An autistic speaking by badspyro · · Score: 2, Interesting
    I, personaly have Autism, Aspergers Syndrome to be exact.


    Many of us whach TV to try to understand the world, since as far as we can see, its a deeply f**ked up place, where people kill for fun, where people wage wars because they can and where people do jobs they don't want to do and then moan about it, yet refuse to do anything about it.


    TV helps us understand the insane world around us, help us learn how people respond, what fatial movements mean, what body language as a whole means. We don't know thease things almost from birth like the majority of people. We have to learn them like somebody would learn quantum mecanics, except feelings don't have finite rules.


    one fact for you, they tested all the enterants for Oxford Uni in the UK one year, and found that somewhere in the reagon of 75% had an "autistic spectrum disorder", and I would be interested to see about how many people on /. do too. maybe we could do an experiment some time.


    anybody interested in more info, email me or message me on gmail (badspyro@)

    thanks,

    Badspyro

  20. I've read Hume too, but ... by peterarm · · Score: 5, Insightful

    In Canada we have warning labels on cigarette packs. Big warning labels. Cigarettes cause cancer, etc. So, naturally, some dollar store entrepreneur creates fake warning labels.

    Anyway, when I was a stereotypical angry young philosophy student, I thought it would be fun to make my own fake warning labels to put on my cigarette packs. So, who did I turn to? Hume, of course.

    So, my cigarette packs had a big warning: "Correlation Does Not Imply Causation" on them. I thought it was a good joke, by philosophy joke standards anyway.

    Now, I knew perfectly well that in this case even though it did not imply it, it was in fact true. Of course cigarretes caused cancer. In many cases correlation is, um, correlated with causation. But I was 18 so I didn't care; I thought it was funny.

    What a joke.

    So, the point is: correlation is a start. If there is a correlation, you should look for ways to establish whether causation exists or not.

    Now, you usually cannot do real proper experiments on humans with smoking (starting with a large random set of non-smokers, making half of them smoke their entire lives, and seeing how many of each group died of cancer). The ethics boards at the university wouldn't approve ;-)

    So, do you just give up and say "thank you for smoking" or "well, we'll never prove anything according to David Hume then". No, you don't. There are statistical tools like factor analysis which let people smarter than me figure out how much of A is (probably) caused by B, etc.

    Anyway, I have a 2 year old son now, and stuff I thought was funny at 18 is certainly not funny anymore over a decade later. I quit smoking. I certainly wouldn't give my son a cigarette, ever.

    However, if there is a strong correlation between TV and autism, I have to wonder whether I am in effect doing something similar. What if further anaylsis proves (as much as you can prove anything) that it is indeed a cause?

    What would I have done??

    [yeah, yeah, there's a mountain of evidence in one of the cases vs. one study in another ... it's obviously not a perfect analogy, but I've been debugging way too long to care]

    "Correlation Does Not Imply Causation" does not mean act insanely. You have only ever seen gravity by correlation, but you still believe in it. (Yes you do. Wipe that smirk off your face.)

    Now, coincidentally, I also cancelled cable TV after reading Gregg Easterbrook's original Slate article. Obligatory blog whoring: I blogged about it at http://peterarmstrong.com/articles/2006/10/08/rage -against-the-mighty-machines-day-9-of-no-tv.

    Do I think there is conclusive, Hume-would-be-proud proof that TV causes autism. No.

    Do I think that TV is good for young children?

    Would I give my 2 year old son a cigarette?

  21. In this case, it is guaranteed causation-less. by DrYak · · Score: 3, Informative
    If you blindly believe that corrolation does not mean causation then you need to stop considering nearly any study done.


    Correlation is need to proove causation. But by itself alone it doesn't implie it. Other finding are necessary like models that explains WHY such causality should be expected (What's the biochemistry involved ?). Or see Koch's postulate : expremients that proove that by adding/removing the candidate cause ou can somewhat control the effect.

    Obviously there is no smoking gun cause to autism but you can't throw out all evidence from studies just becuase we cant explain the results yet.


    But on the other hand some mecanism is partially known. Also there are finding pointing to the fact that autism is associated and may be caused by some abnormal brain wiring that already happen in utero, thus debunking the old "it's-the-mother's-relationship-fault" supposed cause. Also if it start that early in the developpement, later exposure to the TV is less likely to be the main causing factor.

    And in this case I think it's clearly a case of pure correlation that depend on an additionnal common cause. From what I've understood during my studies (got a degree in medecine) and what I've observed (one of my brothers has autism) : one of the caracteristics of an autist is being much less capable to anticipate or to cope with complex not easily predicted event. In this case the TV is reassuringly predictible : once turned it just plays the show. No complex social interraction required. And also, if wired to a VCR or DVD player, the TV can always play that specific shows that the autist knows and can correctly anticipate, etc...

    TV isn't a cause *of* autism. But, the cognitive mecanism that are specific of autism, also happen to find the TV very reassuring.
    --
    "Sufficiently advanced satire is indistinguishable from reality." - [Tips: 1DrYakQDKCQ6y52z6QbnkxHXAocMZJE61o ]
  22. Let's just ban the word Austism by cherokee158 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The word Autism is a catchall for a wide spectrum of disorders, from severly impaired kids to the fashionably diagnosed little darlings belonging to attention-starved suburban housewives, which tends to muddy the diagnostic waters a bit. Most seriously Autistic children manifest symptons almost from birth. Despite what some parents claim as a regression during the toddler years, I suspect kids are born with it. It's simply difficult to diagnose a child with a psychological disorder before they are old enough to even walk or talk.

    If you want a controlled study, here it is: I have two children, by the same wife. One is perfectly normal. The other is autistic. I suspected there was something wrong with the Autistic one by the time he was nine months old. (Most babies love to be held. This one was completely hyper, and would squirm out of everyone's arms as soon as he was physically capable of it. He rarely slept. He walked early, but displayed odd mannerisms. While many toddlers are fascinated by television, he manifested no interest in watching it at that age at all.) But he was not diagnosed until he was three, because there was very little diagnostic criteria to go one. Babies really don't do much other than cry, eat, sleep and poop.

    They both watched plenty of TV by the time they were three. Just like I did in the sixties. They are 10 and 11 now. I taught the eldest to read the usual way, and he is a voracious reader. He still loves TV. And video games. And fart jokes, and every other thing a normal eleven year old loves. He's still not autistic. The youngest, the Autistic one, would rarely sit still for a story. He liked to flip through books, but didn't want to be read to. He can read now, though. Know why? I turned the English subtitles on whenever he watched his favorite DVD's.

    He learned to read watching television.

    This study is bunk. It's not a theory. It's more like the plot to Halloween III.

    1. Re:Let's just ban the word Austism by Bob-taro · · Score: 2

      I totally agree that the study may be bunk. But you yourself said that the word Autism covers a range of disorders, so the fact that your child doesn't seem to have been affected by television doesn't mean that no other child would be.

      --
      Prov 9:8 Do not rebuke mockers or they will hate you; rebuke the wise and they will love you.
  23. A physician's view: this is a stunningly bad paper by TheMohel · · Score: 5, Insightful

    As a pediatrician trained in child development (and the parent of an autistic teenager), I've got a strong interest and background in this, and I can tell you quite plainly that the paper is crap.

    This is a spectacularly good example of really stupid statistical games. I only skimmed it (Acrobat Reader blew up on me as I tried to save it, and I'll get another copy later), but these people did the following amazing things:

    1. Accept as fact that autism itself is increasing (as opposed to the diagnosis of autism). This is possible, but contentious and somewhat controversial. I'll spare you the full story, but the general opinion is that while the disorder is more common than it once was, changes in diagnosis (and benefits for diagnosis) make it hard to do more than guess at the actual rate of increase.

    2. Consider de novo a hypothesis "that early childhood television watching is an important trigger for the onset of autism." They do note that nobody else has bothered to consider this, but don't spend much time wondering why. Apparently, they're special. Perhaps because nobody has measured this in a useful manner? They do admit this, but they find a solution!

    3. Because there are no good numbers for early television watching, they use precipitation as a proxy for television watching. Apparently, if it rains, you're likely inside with the tube on. They do show a strong positive correlation between rainfall and autism. Yep, that's right - rain causes autism.

    4. But wait - it can't be the rain, it has to be the television! That's what we started trying to prove, anyway, so it's important to stay focused. They try it another way: they consider the availability of cable. They show that autism correlates with the availability of cable. No, really, it does. Of course, diagnosis of a LOT of chronic developmental syndromes increases with affluence, because of the increased availability of medical care and the reduction in "grab-bag" diagnoses like "mental retardation". But still, it must be the cable.

    5. Having neatly done all the "proof" they require, they then proceed to tear the numbers apart and "prove" that 40% of autism in California is triggered by early television watching, while only 17% is triggered in PA. Why, we don't know, but it appears that rain, or cable, or maybe just TV is more powerful in CA than in PA. Or something like that.

    I don't have time for a complete fisking right now, but I may do it later. Aside from the basic methodologic errors (confusing correlation with causation, adopting a highly questionable proxy indicator without validating it, and spending almost no time ruling out confounding factors or tainted data), there remain the dozens of smaller tactical problems that should have sidelined this turkey. I assume the peer reviewers, if there are any, were on drugs.

    This paper will be a bombshell, all right. I'll use it over and over again as I explain to medical students and colleagues that you don't have to have much in the way of actual brains to write a scientific paper. Or, as I said about another paper in journal club once, "the font is nice, and I like the layout of the tables. It's a shame the actual science is such garbage."

  24. consequences by Phantom+of+the+Opera · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I see a number of posts debating the methods of data collection and what it could possibly mean. The real work that must be done now is to investigate these claims and investigate possible mechanisms. If this claim is true, there are going to be rather intense repurcussions. My money? It's not the television itself, it is the non-interactive world that it produces.

    Autism is on the rise http://www.fightingautism.org/idea/autism.php. My mother is a school nurse and she's noticed a large increase in the size of the special ed classes. The number of students that are affected (and yes, you can tell that these kids really do have autism by observing them) has gone from a handfull to enough to fill more than two classrooms.

    Think about what the possible mechanisms could be. It is not going to be anything exotic like radiation or refresh rates or the like. We are plopping children down in front of the TV during the time their brains are 'wiring'. Their brains are learning to deal with a world that fits in a tiny box and that they have no control over. The brain isn't something that plops out of the womb fully done; it learns to adapt to the sensations around it. A recent study suggests that an imbalance of communication pathways is a likely mechanism of autism. It is known in development that pathways are pruned as children develop ( Early Brain Development ).

    So, plop a kid down in front of the TV for hours a day. They are transfixed and their brains are wiring to cope with a world in a box that they can provide no input to or alter in any way but changing channels, volume level or the off button. That's really not a stretch. Prepare for articles about tv watching monkeys.

  25. Re:A physician's view: this is a stunningly bad pa by m0nstr42 · · Score: 2, Interesting
    So, grad students, professors, and statisticians, at CORNELL UNIVERSITY, don't know what they're talking about? And you do? Uh huh.
    As a grad student at another ivy league institution in a multidisciplinary scientific field, I can say without a doubt that some academics have a tendency to step beyond their bounds, regardless of their pedigree. At first, I had the same feeling: I tend to have a knee-jerk reaction to criticism of scientific research when it is popularized, since most of that criticism is uninformed (more often it is worse - misinformed). The GPP has to be given some credit - it's probably the most well-informed, qualified, "I actually RTFA", rational comment I've ever read on slashdot. It's good to know there are people out there who can actually think about their opinions.
  26. Freakonomics author's take on this by purplelocust · · Score: 2, Interesting
    There is an interesting entry on the blog of Steven Levitt (author of Freakonomics and expert in teasing interesting things from data in subtle ways) analyzing this. His point is that autism DIAGNOSIS (and awareness) is on the rise, as is cable TV penetration, so it will be hard to detect a possible signal amidst those general trends. I like his possible alternate explanation: (the study also analyzes rainfall amounts which correlate well with TV watching for kids)

    My theory: when it rains a lot, parents watch more TV, see more shows about autism, and this leads them to seek out a diagnosis of autism for their kids. They have the same kids, it is just that TV makes them believe that their kids are autistic.
    1. Re:Freakonomics author's take on this by purplelocust · · Score: 3, Insightful
      Here is his actual blog entry, BTW:

      TV causes autism? I doubt it.

      An article in Slate yesterday argued that TV watching causes autism. The Slate article is based on research done by Cornell economists Michael Waldman, Sean Nicholson, and Nodir Adilov. You can download the academic working paper here.

      The paper gives some theories why TV and autism might be linked, but the more interesting part of the paper is the data analysis. The researchers are trying to find a "natural experiment" that shifts around TV watching, but otherwise has no impact on whether a child is diagnosed as autistic. Rainfall is one of the things they use. In places where it rains a lot, kids watch more TV. Maybe rainfall doesn't affect autism in any other way. This is a creative approach, although it suffers from the weakness (which they acknowledge in the paper), that rainfall changes other things, like how much time you spend indoors doing other things besides watching TV. They also use the arrival of cable TV in an area. This approach is potentially stronger, although it would be better if they used availability of cable TV, rather than the number of people who actually subscribe.

      These are intriguing approaches, but personally I did not find the empirical evidence in the paper very compelling.

      The rainfall evidence is based off of three states: Washington, Oregon, and California. It rains a lot in some parts of these states, but not others. There is more autism in the parts of the states where it rains more. The problem is that it rains on the coast of Oregon and Washington, and in Northern California. But there are a million other differences between the coast of Washington and the Eastern part of the state, and between Northern and Southern California. The researchers also look at how much rain there was when you were between the ages of 0-2, controlling for your county. This is more promising. The impact of rain gets smaller, but it is the most convincing evidence in the paper.

      The data analysis of cable TV is limited to California and Pennsylvania and also finds positive results. The difficulty with the cable TV analsyis is that there is an incredibly strong positive trend in autism. The cable TV data are basically on an upward trend. The regression analysis is going to have a very hard time sorting out between a steady rise in cable TV penetration and the time trend. In the current version they only include a linear time trend, which is an extrememly powerful predictor. My guess is that if they generalize their specification to allow for non-linear time trends, the cable TV result will disappear.

      The authors have done some interesting work, but the nature of the problem makes it a really hard one to answer convincingly. For instance, you might think that Oregon and California should have similar autism rates. Nope, Oregon's rate is four times higher. That sort of gap is almost certainly due to differences in what is called autism in the official data in one state versus the other. The increasing time trend is also heavily influenced by what is labeled autism. When the outcome of interest is measured so poorly, it is hard to know what the analysis is really picking up--differences in the underlying symptoms or just in the reporting of them.

      The more I thought about it, the more it seemed to me that there might be a causal link between rainfall, TV, and autism, but not the one suggested by the paper.

      My theory: when it rains a lot, parents watch more TV, see more shows about autism, and this leads them to seek out a diagnosis of autism for their kids. They have the same kids, it is just that TV makes them believe that their kids are autistic.

      I don't mean to sound overly negative on this research. I applaud the authors for asking a daring hypothesis and gathering data to try to test it. My gut, though, tells me that this is a result which will not stand up to scrutiny.

      from http://www.freakonomics.com/blog/

  27. It depends on the definition of "autism" by stankulp · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Mission-creep in the psychiatric-industrial complex has caused the expansion of many syndromes to encompass more and more people, because the more people you can diagnose as having a disease, the more money the psychiatric-pharmaceutical industry can make.

    It used to be that the term "autism" was reserved for severely impaired kids. Now its definition has been expanded to include anybody on the slightly geeky side.

    Most /. readers would gladly be diagnosed as autistic by the psychiatric-pharmaceutical industry, I suspect.

    --
    We must be alert to the danger that public policy could become captive to a scientific-technological elite. - Eisenhower
  28. Does TV cause autism? I doubt it. by pwizard2 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I wish I'd gotten in here sooner. I am officially diagnosed with Asperger's Syndrome, and I spent most of my childhood without TV. Even though I had to entertain myself in other ways such as reading, and indulging different hobbies (having several obsessive hobbies is in itself an autistic trait) I still turned out the way I did. The only way that TV could affect someone in this way is if they were already genetically or developmentally predisposed to it (or EVERYONE would be autistic, since nearly every kid watches TV in developed countries) Also, it pisses me off when people try to "cure" autism. It's not some disease that I have, it's a part of who I am. If it were possible to remove all of my autistic traits, I wouldn't be the same person after said process was done. Autism is just a different way of seeing the world and interpreting things around me, and even though people mean well, the fact that they would want to override who I am and attempt to make me like they are does kind of insult me.

    --
    "It is a denial of justice not to stretch out a helping hand to the fallen; that is the common right of humanity."
  29. Spectacularly bad science by Raffaello · · Score: 5, Interesting

    From the paper: If, for example, one compares the US Department of Education's reported number of school-aged
    children diagnosed with autism in 1999-2000 with the similar figure for 2003-2004, one sees that
    over those four years the reported number has more than doubled.


    Does anybody really think that the rates of autism really doubled in this time period. Isn't it far more likely that the rate of diagnosis simply went up. What would cause parents to become aware of this unusual condition called autism? Maybe they saw a segment about it on TV?

    Isn't it simply possible that autism rates are correlated with TV watching because many americans get much of their information about the larger world by watching TV, and therefore the higher the rates of TV watching (determined in this study by looking at cable installation rates and precipitation rates - people watch more TV when it's rainy out ) mean higher rates of awareness of autism as a condition to ask your child's doctor about? So now, instead of being diagnosed as retarded, the child is diagnosed as autistic because the child's parents saw a segment about autism on cable TV on a rainy day.

    1. Re:Spectacularly bad science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Well, this has already been fairly thoroughly investigated, and while there is some evidence that diagnosis is up, that definitely doesn't account for the increases that've been seen...

      Besides, I think if your 8-year old child couldn't speak, or make eye contact, and generally preferred banging his/her hands to interacting with you in any fashion, you'd probably know something was wrong (even without Donahue telling you, or whatever the hell people watched in the early 80s), and get them to a doctor.

      The first few years of life are pretty critical for neural development; a lot of 'thermostats' in the brain are set during this time, and it really isn't that hard to imagine that activities performed for several hours a day might have some influence on these processes.

    2. Re:Spectacularly bad science by Pragmatix · · Score: 2

      Or perhaps children who have autism or autism like tendancies have a greater affinity for TV, so they spend more time watching it?

    3. Re:Spectacularly bad science by skintigh2 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      "Does anybody really think that the rates of autism really doubled in this time period. Isn't it far more likely that the rate of diagnosis simply went up. What would cause parents to become aware of this unusual condition called autism? Maybe they saw a segment about it on TV?"

      No. I read some studies on this a few years ago and that was ruled out. Better testing was assumed to be the cause of some huge spikes in CA among geeks who had children (cue "geek disease" headlines) but was ruled out.

      I have seen some powerful correlations with the introduction of mercury-using vaccines in countries like China, and correlations with being downwind of coal-fired power plants that release mercury. And I have seen studies refuting this.

      Whatever the cause, it is real, and the increase it is there.

    4. Re:Spectacularly bad science by cpricejones · · Score: 2, Interesting

      From the article, "Starting with the work of Rimland (1964), it is well understood that genetics or biology plays an important role, but many in the medical community argue that the increased incidence must be due to an environmental trigger that is becoming more common over time (a few argue that the cause is a widening of the criteria used to diagnose the condition and that the increased incidence is thus illusory)." So a few in the medical community argue that increases or modifications in diagnosis contribute to increased numbers of patients. This hand-waving gesture suggests that this sort of argument is not really holding sway, perhaps for the reasons mentioned above.

  30. The problem is with the visual (over)stimulation by JonTurner · · Score: 4, Interesting

    My suspicion is that the problem is due to the (over) stimulation of the visual centers in very young children. Have you noticed how incredibly brief the duration of one camera shot is in modern TV? Barely 5 seconds. SECONDS! The point-of-view is constantly shifting from one camera to another, and it's common with children's programming to have a hand-held camera that bobs and sways in order to keep the show "interesting" and increase concentration. Add to that the visual effects and zoom/fades/transitions plus all the audio crap and it's a miracle any child emerges with his brain intact.

    Go watch a classic episode of I Love Lucy or The Honeymooner's or The Twilight Zone. It's not uncommon for one camera shot to last four minutes. And at that point in time (I'm thinking 1960s and earlier) it was common to listen to dramas on the radio -- Green Lantern, Lone Ranger, The Strangler, etc. -- so the listener was actively involved in building mental imagery. Kids who have been raised on a steady diet of modern tv don't have the patience for old-fashioned TV or stories (or, for that matter, conversations requiring well-developed listening skills)... it's too "boring." (IMO, their brains aren't well adapted to concentrate for that period of time and they find it tiring and/or difficult.)

  31. Re:A physician's view: this is a stunningly bad pa by GlobalEcho · · Score: 4, Informative

    ...and here we have another M.D. who thinks he knows something about science. I wish medical schools would concentrate less on memorization and more on critical thinking skills, especially with respect to statistical studies.

    This is a spectacularly good example of really stupid statistical games.

    In actuality, the paper is a good example of the way in which social research can take advantage of natural experiments.

    I only skimmed it...

    Then why write with such unwarranted authority and in such certain terms about its contents and conclusions?

    Aside from the basic methodologic errors (confusing correlation with causation, adopting a highly questionable proxy indicator without validating it, and spending almost no time ruling out confounding factors or tainted data), there remain the dozens of smaller tactical problems...

    They made none of the errors you list. I would like to think you might have realized this had you bothered (as I did) to actually read the paper, but based on the evidence of your post, I would be reckless to assume that.

  32. Re:Lies, damn lies, and . . . by Azathfeld · · Score: 2, Informative

    Er, read first, then complain if warranted. The abstract doesn't make it clear, but the data does indeed suggest that they've found a trigger for autism. Very interesting.

  33. Re: Spectacularly Annoying by mpapet · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Does anybody really think that the rates of autism really doubled in this time period. Isn't it far more likely that the rate of diagnosis simply went up. What would cause parents to become aware of this unusual condition called autism? Maybe they saw a segment about it on TV?

    1. Something is WRONG with your child when they are autistic. You know there is because she/he doesn't act normally. A minimally responsible parent figures out what it is.

    2. The medical condition of autism is well-defined. It doesn't just visit the child like a common cold. http://www.nimh.nih.gov/publicat/autism.cfm and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autism

    3. "retarded" is not a medical condition. That is the social term for a host of developmental problems.

    people watch more TV when it's rainy out
    This is the West. It doesn't rain much... There's no excuse for watching more TV other than babysitting your child for you. I'll go further than that and say there is no reason for children to watch television until at least 5. But this means parents have to raise their children. So it's an unpopular opinion.

    Please consider your opinions in this matter as poorly constructed as the science you claim is flawed.

    --
    http://www.maxineudall.com/2010/02/should-economists-be-sued-for-malpractice.html
  34. Potential Problems with Study by InklingBooks · · Score: 2, Insightful
    I've just downloaded the study and haven't read it, but I can already see a number of classic pitfalls.

    1. First the timing of more cable with the increased diagnosis of autism may be a coincidence. For a one-or-two year-olds, cable doesn't mean more to watch. There's almost no programming for that age, unless there is a round-the-clock Teletubies channel I've not heard about.

    2. They may be confusing cause and effect. I worked with austistic children. They're not stimulated by contact with other people like ordinary children, but they are often attracted by repetitive patterns of light of the sort a small child might find on TV. As a result, the parents might have been more likely to put them in front of a TV as a pacifier.( And that might have even made the child's autistic tendencies worse.) In such a case, TV was not so much the cause as a diagnostic sign.

    I'll see if the authors deal with those problems in their paper. It's hard to believe that they don't.

    And TV addicts shouldn't get all in a dither about this. At most, this just means that parents shouldn't put little baby Johnny down in front of a TV. It's not going to turn a 22=year-old into an austitic.

    --Mike Perry, author of Untangling Tolkien

  35. reducing the health risks of smoking by nido · · Score: 2, Interesting

    So, my cigarette packs had a big warning: "Correlation Does Not Imply Causation" on them. I thought it was a good joke, by philosophy joke standards anyway.

    It's worth noting that lung cancer rates only exploded post-WWII. People had been smoking for thousands of years, but lung cancer was a relative unknown.

    The change was that some years before manure, which had been used for fertilizer on the tobacco plants, was requisitioned for the war effort (gunpowder, explosives or whatever). Tobacco companies had to switch to Rock Phosphate to fertilize their plants. They liked it because their tobacco plants grew quicker & bigger, with less labor invested in gathering animal dung.

    You don't hear much about the downfall: rock phosphate has low levels of natural radioactivity. Tobacco plants concentrate radioactive ions in their leaves... A dose or two of rock phosphate isn't much for concern, but when applied to the same fields year after year, the radiation levels in the plants have become significant.

    With that said, I Don't smoke, never have, and Don't encourage it. If I did smoke, I would buy organic tobacco (American Spirit, for example) and roll my own, or perhaps "stuff my own", into a pre-rolled paper w/ a filter, like my college roommate did. It's cheaper, much much healthier to boot, and you know exactly what you're inhaling (that's a reference to cigarette companies putting all sorts of weird chemicals in their products).

    Search for 'radioactive tobacco' for more information.

    --
    Learn the rules so you know how to break them properly.
    www.teslabox.com
  36. huh by Daddy3 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    My son has high functioning autism and his symptoms showed long before he started watching tv. Rates are increasing because there is better diagnosis information available to the doctors-origionally they were clumped as mentally disabled or retarded. To say TV is causing autism is a farce IMHO. We have actually used video games to increase my sons ability to cross over midline. He is very proficient playing games. There is real science going on now that has located a gene that may be the link to why it happens. They are trying to manipulate that gene into mice to see what different outside influences trigger autism. They will test mercury in that study since it has been used in vaccines for babies. Yes they "concluded" that it is not causing autism in other studies but why did the manufacturer of the vaccine get congress to make a law excluding manufacturers from liability? There is too much misguided studies on autism-I feel the gene route will be the one that will give the best answers.

  37. Correlation not necessarily causation by quixote9 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Much as I think TV is suitable only for folks with water on the brain, it's important to remember that a statistical correlation (which is what this is) does not mean that TV causes autism, or that autism causes TV. It's easy to imagine a scenario in which autistic children simply watch more TV because one of the main symptoms of the disorder is difficulty interacting with others. That said, it is a fascinating bit of data, and one that means we better find out what staring at TVs _does_ cause (if anything) before there's nobody left with a normal brain to do it.

  38. Correllation v Causation by descil · · Score: 2, Informative

    Correllation does not equate causation. That's all that needs to be said about this experiment.