Slashdot Mirror


Ice Ages Linked to Plate Tectonics

CorSci81 writes "A study by scientists at Ohio State University indicates the possibility that ice ages may be triggered by plate tectonics. Scientists speculate that the current ice age may have been triggered 40 million years ago by the uplift of the Himalayas, and this study provides further support by linking a much earlier ice age 450 million years ago with the uplift of the Appalachian mountain range. Additionally, this study reinforces the notion that CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is a major driver of climate."

59 comments

  1. Then the solution to global warming is clear by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

    Just raise the Appalachians again.

    1. Re:Then the solution to global warming is clear by thrillseeker · · Score: 2, Funny

      Rove is working on it.

    2. Re:Then the solution to global warming is clear by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

      So all we have to do to combat global warming is build some mountains? Sounds easy enough. Lets build some big drills and start pumping the magma!

      But this does make me a little sad. I was hoping to win a Nobel prize by showing that global warming could be easily halted with a nuclear winter.

    3. Re:Then the solution to global warming is clear by Valthan · · Score: 1

      Futurama already proved that... sorry

      --
      --Valthan
    4. Re:Then the solution to global warming is clear by ticklejw · · Score: 1

      Fortunately, looks like the Mountaineers are on their way to another National Championship. Yeah, if we win that again, don't you worry, that party will absolutely raise the Appalachians.

      --
      "Software is like sex; it's better when it's free." -Linus Torvalds
    5. Re:Then the solution to global warming is clear by gEvil+(beta) · · Score: 2, Informative

      The Appalachians have actually undergone three orogenic (mountain-building) events. The biggest of these was the Taconic, which is what they're talking about in the article. So conceivably, it could happen again, but it would be a long time in the works.

      --
      This guy's the limit!
    6. Re:Then the solution to global warming is clear by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I believe you're confusing 'raise' and 'raze' again.

  2. Well.. by fyngyrz · · Score: 4, Funny

    ...my theory is that the current ice age began when women started wearing pants instead of dresses and skirts. Clearly, the interaction with the weather has changed. A good stiff breeze... and nothing. Then pantyhose replaced stockings, and all the garter snakes died. Putting your mind in the gutter no longer results in something to look up at. Er, to. Yeah.

    We're doomed, I tell you, DOOMED!

    --
    I've fallen off your lawn, and I can't get up.
  3. Finally by QuantumFTL · · Score: 3, Funny

    Proof we're not causing global warming! It's all plates! Oil guys - keep on pumpin! Me, I'll be out in my SUV crusin' for ladies.

    1. Re:Finally by TubeSteak · · Score: 1

      The (water) injection techniques (used to keep the pressure up) for oil wells on/about fault lines has lubricated plates & occassionaly caused slippage. By slippage, I mean earth quakes.

      Maybe modern extraction techniques aren't such a bright idea in some areas.

      --
      [Fuck Beta]
      o0t!
    2. Re:Finally by Martin+Blank · · Score: 2, Insightful

      It could be argued that they are better, though, in that the earthquakes may be triggered when there is less energy pent up in them, resulting in less destructive quakes.

      --
      You can never go home again... but I guess you can shop there.
    3. Re:Finally by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But maybe all that oil lubricates the plates and they'll all stop moving and it will get really warm!

  4. Better yet, move the Earth. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Or we could just move the Earth a bit farther from the sun. That's how they solved global warming in Futurama.

    Not just in that cartoon either. As teenagers we've all read about awesome feats of planet-moving in Greg Bear's Moving Mars or Larry Niven's Ringworld . But now that I'm older and more pessimistic, I suspect we'll all drive ourselves extinct through some screwup or another before reaching such a level of technology. Slashdot is partly to blame for my becoming bitter and crotchety because of all the coverage of climate doom here.

  5. There may be a link by aphxtwn · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I think the researchers are suggesting there *may* be a relationship. It's tough to say anything concrete when researchers/scientists propose a theory making headline news and then someone else throws an idea out either suggesting another cause or contradicting a previous announcement. So far, among the many factors I've heard about ocean salinity, magnetosphere reversal, jet contrails, fossil fuels, green house gases. A lot of it seems more speculation than anything. Maybe it's just me.

    1. Re:There may be a link by CorSci81 · · Score: 5, Informative

      This study actually contradicts nothing. This idea had been around for sometime, this is just the latest study to offer for evidence in support. What has become clear to climate scientists (and was impressed upon me during my graduate studies in that field) is that climate is a very complicated, non-linear, multivariate system. The Milankovich cycles were one proposed theory for ice ages, linking natural cycles in Earth's orbit to ice ages, but it quickly became clear that wasn't the entire story. One of the questions scientists struggled with for a long time is "How do you start an ice age?" For long periods in Earth's history there have been intermittent ice ages, but they seemed to have no periodicity or pattern. Milankovich cycles definitely control whether the climate is glacial or inter-glacial during a long term ice age, but if the climate is already in a "warm" state they lack the oomph to trigger an ice age. This research provides one clue to the answer. Other proposed solutions have to do with the arrangement of the land masses on Earth's surface, and ultimately they are all probable factors.

      Regarding green house gases, one of the things this study does is reinforce the link between CO2 and climate state. Weathering is one way of removing a lot of CO2 from the atmosphere over long periods of time, and is part of the reason why Earth isn't more like Venus. Geologic forces removed a huge fraction of Earth's primordial CO2 from the atmosphere, more than we could ever hope to release by burning all of the fossil fuels on the planet.

    2. Re:There may be a link by sumdumass · · Score: 2, Interesting
      This study actually contradicts nothing.
      yes it does contradict something. It is this idea that humans are the sole cause of global warming and that humans need to sacrifice everything, pay more for newer technology coming out because it is said to help cure global warming and the worst idea of we have to pay other countries because we emit more green house gases then they do.

      Now, I'm not going to claim humans don't have an influence on global warming. I'm not even going to try and minimize it. I am going to claim that this proves we don't understand the forces behind it completely enough to take drastic actions like what some people are purposing. Kyoto is more or less a redistribution of wealth scheme more then a fix. Although it might be a decent band aid, it definitely isn't a "fix" unless you consider penalizing growth in one area and limiting it on another a "fix". We need more research, science, and less politicking with aims to benefit whoever has the "cure".
    3. Re:There may be a link by Reverse+Gear · · Score: 1

      Just to add a little to CorSci81's very fine post here other possible triggers not mentioned in his post as I remember them from my classes in this is things like: - Vulcanism which might both create lot's of dust in the athmosphere in the atmosphere, having mostly a cooling effect while the vulcanic activity might also cause local heating. This is also to some degree linked to plate tectonics.
      - Swamps becoming frozen which is a kind is a big reserve of metane and CO2 which might is "held in store" once the swamps become permafrost.
      - If there are continents on the poles which makes it "easier" to create the ice caps that is needed to start the Ice age (also very closely linked to plate tectonics) once there is an ice sheet, this sheet reflects more light than other kinds of surface thereby cooling down further
      - The ocean stream have a lot to say too, there are diffrent cycles here that are not well understood, but they are visible in the deep ice drillings measurement of CO2 content. This is both linked to plate tectonics, where the closure of the gap between and north America for example is very clear, but is also linked to undersea vulcanism, the Ice sheets and of course where the possible deep sea pumps are.
      - Geotermic heat coming from the earth itself, which is a constantly declining function and which is one of the main reasons why there was a time when there were no ice ages on earth before around 3 billion years ago.
      - Changes in the suns output of energy over time, both long time variations and short term variations.

      There are more lots of other possible factors, which as the parent to this comment so nicely says is the reason why climate research is such a blasted difficult thing to do, there are so many factors to take into account and many of them are linked in less than obvios ways, so it's all about creating models which take as many factors into account as possible and get them to fit the data from ice cores and other data and maybe such a model will then also be able to say things about the future (which also needs to include the human interference where it is even harder to know what is the right way to fit your model to the past as we have very few years (on a geologic timescale) of data there).

    4. Re:There may be a link by CorSci81 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Two points. One: no one ever said humans are the sole cause. That said, it's clear we are part of what's going on. Two: the implication of the full article is that CO2 has a very large effect on climate. In turn, this implies that the rapid increase in CO2 due to humans may have a very large impact on our climate in a very short time.

      And in a sense you have hit the nail on the head. Global warming is very much a political/economic issue and much less a science issue. Even if science can say what will happen, the simple fact is we can't easily reverse what we have already done, which could have consequences for a few centuries.

      Now I'll pose a different question to you... what is the cost of doing nothing vs. taking what actions we can to mitigate the risk? The simple fact is we're rolling the dice and there will be winners and there will be losers, and we don't know which will be which. Even if only the least severe scenarios prove to be true, rising sea levels alone present us with an economic burden that far outweighs the costs of doing something now. So we don't understand everything well enough to know the exact outcome; but do we really want to roll those dice? I know I'm not a gambling man.

    5. Re:There may be a link by foobsr · · Score: 1

      It is nnot only global warming, it is eating up resources as well. The Living Planet Report 2006 gives some insight.

      From the site: Effectively, the Earth's regenerative capacity can no longer keep up with demand - people are turning resources into waste faster than nature can turn waste back into resources.

      CC.

      --
      TaijiQuan (Huang, 5 loosenings)
    6. Re:There may be a link by pete.com · · Score: 1

      You forgot about the decline of Pirates.

    7. Re:There may be a link by aphxtwn · · Score: 1

      What I meant by the contradictory statements was scientists who think the earth may be cooling down versus those who think it's warming up. It just seems the press makes announcements saying like one of the guys here in the thread mentioned, the decline of pirates contributed to climate change. What troubles me was the way the article was titled, suggesting there is a definite link when it's more of a possibility. I think speculation can be good, but I don't think it makes good news. If it survives rigorous scientific analysis by the scientific community and is generally accepted by people in the field, then I think that would be worthy of news. It seems there's a flurry of media activity when it comes to climate change, and I wonder how much of that is meant to be sensational and how much is meant to be informational.

    8. Re:There may be a link by CorSci81 · · Score: 1

      Well, as the guy who submitted the article, I thought the title I chose was fairly innocuous since ice ages != global warming. It's just the sad fact that when you bring up climate change of any kind people who are not climate scientists immediately start going off about global warming. It's one of those cases where everyone is an expert and few people bother to listen to what those of us who actually study this field are saying. It was a big issue in my graduate program as we constantly have to deal with people on both sides taking what we say out of context to support their political agendas.

      While this study does have implications for climate change, the types of changes that this study talks about are over geologic time and have a very minimal impact on what is happening right now other than to set a baseline. I'd also point out that this idea is not new, it has been around for a very long time. The trouble has been two-fold: determining when previous ice ages (other than the most recent) have been is one piece of the puzzle, and the other is determining when orogenic events have occurred in the past. Neither of these is easy, so what it nice about this study is it offers more evidence to support what is actually a fairly old idea.

    9. Re:There may be a link by sumdumass · · Score: 1
      One: no one ever said humans are the sole cause.
      Humans being the sole cause is the overriding tone of the political pro=global warming crowd who cite study after study as proof. Ironically, the most verbal people saying "global warming is your fault" and "we are all going to die because of you" are the same one who told us to stop doing things they considered in excess and enjoying ourselves, come out against conglomerate power companies in favor of alternative but more expensive energy production that some of them have financial ties to, and have failing land deals that needs other lands in the area turned into a nature preserve in order to drive the cost of their land up. Yes, people are claiming humans as the sole cause because "if it wasn't for you, we woudln't have this mess." and other countries are using it to blame America. "the new shock and scare".

      Now I'll pose a different question to you... what is the cost of doing nothing vs. taking what actions we can to mitigate the risk? The simple fact is we're rolling the dice and there will be winners and there will be losers, and we don't know which will be which.
      That depends on the cost of the solution compared to the benefits of the fix it provides. Obviously we can suggest certain things that do little to curb the human factor of global warming while costing millions if not billions to the people or exploiting less developed countries and their people in the process. Some would say that this is the current state of the Kyoto treaty. I've heard of some countries in attempts to fix other problems (china)who allow a family one child and forced abortions for any one after that. Could you imagine a fix like this? It would only take a few generations before there would be half the impact from humans worldwide.

      So, I say nothing we do in the next couple years will have enough impact to stop anything already on the way. Why not take the time to study the purposed solutions, see if it actually fixes the problem and make sure it isn't some global redistribution of wealth program or some latent supreme race campaign or some plan to dump the worlds trash on the less privileged peoples in the world. The only reason any of those things can happen is because we know too little about global warming, the effects of it, the ways to fix it and we have scientist claiming to be the supreme authority for it that haven't even read other papers about it. We have people who commit you to this blackball and demonizing effect if you question their seemingly religious experience of global warming.
    10. Re:There may be a link by rtb61 · · Score: 1
      Earth isn't like venus, might just possibly have more to do with venus's contra-rotation and reformed plantry surface being indicative of a very large impact some time in the not to distant past. You also would have to wonder how the orbit of venus was altered by that impact and how other plantary bodies were affected during that change.

      Whilst the minor ice ages are likely generated by concidental seismic events (major earthquakes and volcanoes occuring at virtually the same time geologically speaking) the major ice ages are still more likely to be caused by something a little more extraterrestrial in origin, possibly even the ejecta from the venusian impact.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
  6. Did I miss a memo? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    the current ice age

    Did I miss a memo?

    1. Re:Did I miss a memo? by CorSci81 · · Score: 5, Informative

      If you look over geologic time scales, yes, we are in an ice age. People confuse ice age with glacial and inter-glacial periods. The trend for the last 40 million years has been sharp warming to temperatures similar to what we have experienced for roughly the last 10,000 years, followed by a slow decline over the next 100,000 or so years until you reach a minimum, then a sharp spike, etc. What is special about our current interglacial period is it has gone on for 10,000 years and it's suddenly getting warmer. There is some indication our current interglacial period has been somewhat long-lived even before we started pumping fossil fuels into the atmosphere, but the recent warming is more strongly correlated with the industrialization of our species. The typical interglacial temperature maximum for our ice age seems to have been in the ballpark of a few hundred to maybe a couple thousand years, a number we've far exceeded.

    2. Re:Did I miss a memo? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

      Thank you for repeating a classic anti-science myth, please come again.

      We're having a special on "Teh scientists wur all claiming global cooling in the 1970s" if you'd like to try it.

    3. Re:Did I miss a memo? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And yet we are still coming out of the little ice age that occurred after the high middle ages until around the American Civil War. This would include years such as the year without a summer. Hell, we used to be able to grow grapes in Europe 300 MILES NORTH of the current latitude at which we grow them. The problem is trying to show what a short-term climate should do based on an AVERAGE taken from a LONG cycle. Just because the Earth shows certain trends over the long periods doesn't mean that it can't have quite a bit of fluctuation when you expand the years out to look at just one year at a time. Yes, scientists have been able to get approximate CO2 levels for various time periods based on ice pulled from the artic and antarctic, but those would be hard to get very accurate readings on a year to year, let alone a day to day variation.

    4. Re:Did I miss a memo? by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      Just to complete the mythbusting, here is the one aboutthe sun getting hotter.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    5. Re:Did I miss a memo? by TapeCutter · · Score: 1
      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  7. RTFA by e1618978 · · Score: 3, Informative

    "Because we are currently living in an ice age -- or, more precisely, in a slightly warmer interglacial period within an ice age -- CO2 levels worldwide would ordinarily be low; but scientists believe that humans have raised CO2 levels by burning fossil fuels."

    1. Re:RTFA by Ant+P. · · Score: 1

      So in other words, if it weren't for the industrial revolution there's a remote possibility a large chunk of life on earth might've died off?

    2. Re:RTFA by TapeCutter · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "So in other words, if it weren't for the industrial revolution there's a remote possibility a large chunk of life on earth might've died off?

      Not sure about that, but it is a more than a remote possibility that the industrial revolution has already killed off a large chunk of life.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  8. story correction by aapold · · Score: 3, Funny

    "A study by scientists at Ohio State University..."

    that should read:

    "A study by scientists at THE Ohio State University..."

    --
    "Waste not one watt!" - CZ
    1. Re:story correction by ModifiedDog · · Score: 2, Funny

      Make sure you roll your eyes when you say "THE".

  9. I dont buy it by e1618978 · · Score: 0

    The ice ages have been happening on regular repeating intervals (every 41k years from 3 million BC to 1 million BC, and every 100K years after that). Unless we have been getting uplifted mountains due to some regular repeating pattern, then I don't buy it.

    1. Re:I dont buy it by CorSci81 · · Score: 2, Informative

      See my above comment. Ice age refers to the climate being cool on average over the past few million years. This is certainly punctuated by warm inter-glacial periods, but it is (or at least was) still an ice age.

  10. So, the problem is that my SUV is too HEAVY? by ScentCone · · Score: 3, Funny

    I'm just trying to keep up, here. As long as I park far enough away from that Tahoe down the block, though, that should keep the other end of our street from tilting up and altering the weather. Um, unless we want that to happen. It's confusing, now. I'll carry around some extra sandbags if that will help.

    --
    Don't disappoint your bird dog. Go to the range.
    1. Re:So, the problem is that my SUV is too HEAVY? by gEvil+(beta) · · Score: 1

      Watch out buddy! I have a Ford Extinction and I've been looking at buying a house on your block...

      --
      This guy's the limit!
  11. Re:Well.. or why Pirate Fish are needed by WillAffleckUW · · Score: 2, Funny

    ...my theory is that the current ice age began when women started wearing pants instead of dresses and skirts. Clearly, the interaction with the weather has changed. A good stiff breeze... and nothing. Then pantyhose replaced stockings, and all the garter snakes died. Putting your mind in the gutter no longer results in something to look up at. Er, to. Yeah.

    Interesting theory, but there's a far more plausible explanation, as every believer of Pastafarianism knows. It's a severe lack of Pirates that's causing global warming.

    Ice ages are triggered by too many pirates, of course. Just ask anyone of Norse descent. Or those who believe in the Flying Spaghetti Monster.

    --
    -- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
  12. The current Ice Age? by NewsWatcher · · Score: 2, Interesting
    I have studied paleoanthropology and geology, and I am unsure of why they would say that the "current ice age" began 40 million years ago. We are currently in a Holocene (warm period) which began about 11,000 years ago. The last glacial maximum was 18,000 years ago. Since then we have gradually been getting warmer.

    For what it is worth, these fluctuations have usually been attributed to fluctuations in the earth's tilt. Wikipedia has a fairly good explanation.

    --
    If the pattern goes 9am, 10am, 11am, why isn't noon 12am?
    1. Re:The current Ice Age? by CorSci81 · · Score: 1
      Also from Wikipedia, the explanation to your confusion:
      An ice age is a period of long-term downturn in the temperature of Earth's climate, resulting in an expansion of the continental ice sheets, polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers ("glaciation"). Glaciologically, ice age is often used to mean a period of ice sheets in the northern and southern hemispheres; by this definition we are still in an ice age (because the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets still exist). More colloquially, when speaking of the last few million years, ice age is used to refer to colder periods with extensive ice sheets over the North American and Eurasian continents: in this sense, the last ice age ended about 10,000 years ago. This article will use the term ice age in the former, glaciological, sense; and use the term glacial periods for colder periods during ice ages and interglacial for the warmer periods.
    2. Re:The current Ice Age? by doug · · Score: 3, Informative

      For most of the Earth's history there has been no year-round polar ice like there is now. Until the ice caps melt we're still in an ice age. Read this article for more details.

  13. Mod Parent UP by Gotung · · Score: 2, Informative

    Go Bucks!!

    1. Re:Mod Parent UP by Gojira+Shipi-Taro · · Score: 1

      Damn straight Go Bucks!

      Homecoming weekend coming up!

      --
      "Oh my God. This is terrible. This is the end of my Presidency. I'm fucked."; ~ Donald J. Trump
    2. Re:Mod Parent UP by tbone1 · · Score: 0, Troll
      Damn straight Go Bucks!

      Yes, and take your g0dd@mn fans with you!

      --

      The Independent: Reverend Spooner Arrested in Friar Tuck Incident - ISIHAC, Historical Headlines
  14. What would Wild E Coyote do? by PCeye · · Score: 1

    The first Futurama solution was adding ice cubes cut from Halley's comet into the world's oceans...oh yes, that worked until robots were classified as SUV's and light trucks...but that is not our problem...

    Hmmm...What would Wild E Coyote do?

    How about we get a bunch of Acme freezers with icemakers and dispense the ice into a series of meat grinders. The meat grinders can be belt driven at the axle by a fleet of gas powered tractors. Another belt can run from the grinder to a wheel with a bunch of snow shovels tied to it, shoveling the ice onto a needlessly long conveyer belt to dump the ice into the middle of the ocean! This idea will need a lot of long extension cords and three way splitters, but the technology is here! I thought I would point this idea out before Dubya did... Ah, what a world we occupy...

    1. Re:What would Wild E Coyote do? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's Wile E. Coyote.

  15. Saw a talk about this by neurostar · · Score: 2, Interesting

    A researcher who I believe is on this project was at RIT (where I'm a student) and gave a talk on this. It was quite interesting. Unfortunately I had to leave partway through, but the indications were very interesting. Also very cool was a plot of amplitude of temperature variation against period (time). There were spikes at 1 day (24-hour temperature variations) and 1 year (seasonal variations). But the most interesting were spikes at millions of years, indicating there were large scale temperature cycles with periods of millions of years, consistent with global warming being a natural phenomenon. (I'm not saying we aren't affecting though). It was a very interesting plot. (I'm not sure where they got the data from, or how they verified it actually is periodic. My guess is that they took temperature differences though the ages and used the amplitudes of the various instances to infer which were corresponding to the same "cycle")

  16. That's Wile E Coyote by Gojira+Shipi-Taro · · Score: 1

    'nuff said

    --
    "Oh my God. This is terrible. This is the end of my Presidency. I'm fucked."; ~ Donald J. Trump
  17. Could it be? by snuf23 · · Score: 1

    Earth's tilt! Plate movement! Greenhouse gasses! Changing weather systems! El Nino! El chupacabra! By God are you implying that global temperature is a complex system with no single cause for temperature fluctuation?

    --
    Sometimes my arms bend back.
    1. Re:Could it be? by TapeCutter · · Score: 4, Informative

      "By God are you implying that global temperature is a complex system with no single cause for temperature fluctuation?"

      Over millions of years certainly, over a couple of hundred years the long term "causes" (orbit, tilt, tectonics, ect) simply drop out of the equation as irrelevant.

      How not to attribute climate change, (nice graph). It's also interesting to note that 20th century warming would actually be a slight cooling if human CO2 emissions were removed from the models.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  18. Re:Mod Parent DOWN by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    GO BLUE!!

  19. What an awsome epic of biblical proportions! by SickLittleMonkey · · Score: 0, Flamebait

    No offense intended to believers ...

    I've wanted to know about the reasons for ice ages since I first found out about them as a kid. To live in an age where scientific research is finally revealing their actual history - probable cause and effect over a timescale of hundreds of millions of years - is a joy and a privilege!

    And so relevant to the concerns of our day and age ...
    This is much more interesting and plausible than doctrinal handwaving!

    SLM

    --
    main() {1;} // zen app
  20. The difference between science and speculation by Morgaine · · Score: 1

    You are quite right.

    >> Scientists speculate that the current ice age may have been triggered 40 million years ago by the uplift of the Himalayas

    Speculate is the most important word in the whole writeup. To infer any more would be incorrect.

    If you spend a few months examining the theory and implementation of the various types of Global Climate Model, you cannot fail to become aware of the incredible number of assumptions and inherent limits and intentionally narrowed scope and couplings in the models. This is on purpose, because it makes the simulations computable with current supercomputers. What's more, the sheer lack of scientific understanding in the more complex areas like cloud formation limits what we can do just as badly. Scientists know this, but outsiders often do not.

    Climate modelling is in a state of infancy, despite the many decades of work, and like human infants it largely works though shortcuts and assumptions rather than insight and knowledge. To a very large extent, the results of our current simulations are both mathematically invalid and physically incorrect, but it's the best we have currently. This is not for want of trying nor dishonesty, but simply because it is *HARD*. Very very hard.

    And it does no good when non-scientists think that something really concrete is being discovered through current modelling, as it just brings science into disrepute. This applies also to "scientists" who are wearing their Science hats only very loosely while riding the political bandwagon.

    It you want to find and assess scientific climate modelling, look for results in which the premises, the computations, and the results are presented along with the ERROR BOUNDS for each of them, plus references to how those error bounds were obtained. You won't find much of that anywhere in climate modelling.

    In general, if you see no stated error bounds (which express the meaningfulness of a claimed value), then it's not really science, to put it rather bluntly.

    Admittedly, even just a handwaving precursor to actual scientific work is still useful, even *very* useful, but you have to understand the fundamental difference here --- it cannot be used to make any scientific claims whatsoever, because it cannot be refuted. Any value equals any other, in the absence of error bounds.

    --
    "The question of whether machines can think is no more interesting than [] whether submarines can swim" - Dijkstra
  21. The other way around? by tepples · · Score: 1
    Ice ages are triggered by too many pirates, of course.

    No, pirates are triggered by Ice Age.

  22. warming shwarming by singingjim · · Score: 0

    The sun will go supernova in 5 billion years and burn up the earth, then, if that doesn't kill off all humans - even ones that escaped the earth - our galaxy will collide with the Andromeda galaxy effectively destroying all remnant life and if that doesn't do the trick the universe will end entirely in 10 billion years by folding in on itself, so, why do I give a shit about some insignificant atmospheric event that MIGHT threaten our species that won't even be a real issue until long after I'm dead. I've got bigger fish to fry, and more gas to burn in my large displacement sports car. Alarmist schmucks.

    --
    Terrible karma and aiming lower, which in this environment of one-sided reason, is higher.