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iPod Has Nothing To Fear From Slow-Starting Zune

narramissic writes, "Looks like Apple's iPod has nothing to fear from Zune this holiday season. In a research note published Tuesday, PiperJaffray senior research analyst Gene Munster writes that 'during its launch week on Nov. 16, Zune held the seventh spot on online retailer Amazon.com's top 10 best-selling MP3 players list, and it fell from that spot to 13 on the list only five days after launch, on Nov. 20.' Even worse, only 8% of retailers surveyed by PiperJaffray recommend the Zune to customers, while 75% recommend Apple's iPod." The article notes Apple's 5-year headstart in the portable player market and Microsoft's stated intention to invest heavily in the Zune over the next several years.

27 of 422 comments (clear)

  1. Did they plan on this? by TrippTDF · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Did M$ plan on having a flop out of the gate, planning on 2nd and 3rd generations to really go after the iPod? M$ never gets anything right the first time, so maybe it's not a big deal to them that it flopped?

    1. Re:Did they plan on this? by The+evil+doctor+Matt · · Score: 3, Interesting

      What about this angle... Make a useless piece of crap, enable lots O' DRM, give kickbacks to RIAA, lose lots of money... Take 2: Well sorry RIAA, we lost too much money and your way hurt our business model. This time around we are going to use no DRM, have a 200GB drive, play lots of formats and enable wireless sharing between all users. We'll also throw in the ability to download demo's and free singles at music stores for FREE. Maybe we'll also integrate it with Vista so that you can store your user profile and bring it with you. Then we'll add some motion controlled rings that you can wear to interact with the player... O yea don't forget the wimax connection nationwide and the ability to use it with our new VoIP system... Just imagine the possibilities...

    2. Re:Did they plan on this? by DingerX · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I wrote up some conspiracy theory on this, just for the hell of it.

      It boils down to this: What about the ROKR? When that came out, people were digging up every possible excuse for why it was a good idea. Well, it probably wasn't -- but it did have some positive reverberations.

      Same for the Zune. It'll flop tremendously. But the Zune people have put WiFi on a media player. Their failure will scare off anyone else trying to do so. At the same time, they've suppressed their gag reflex around the **AAs so that they can go back and say, "look, we tried it 'your way'. It didn't work, and we lost millions. The next version is going to give the features the consumer is clamoring for." They can say that, and _not_ be accused of piracy.

      But yeah, more likely, the Zune will sink into much-deserved obscurity.

    3. Re:Did they plan on this? by Ucklak · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Or just overpriced junk with no family friendly titles.

      There are seriously no family friendly titles in the vein of Mario Kart for XBox.

      --
      if you steal from one source, that is plagiarism, if you steal from many, well, that's just research.
  2. Well... ok by Aqua+OS+X · · Score: 3, Interesting

    How many Windows iPods were sold a few weeks after they hit the market?

    --
    "Things are more moderner than before- bigger, and yet smaller- it's computers-- San Dimas High School football RULES!"
    1. Re:Well... ok by ZachPruckowski · · Score: 4, Interesting

      That's a totally different issue though. Back then, MP3 players were relatively rare. Today, almost everyone has at least played with one (if they don't own one), and there are tens of millions on the streets (in the US alone). Back then, iPod sales were slow because MP3 player sales were slow.

  3. Zune has so much promise by Buzz_Litebeer · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Unfortunately the Zune seems to offer very little, and the feature that it should be known for takes a LONG time to implement. Sharing a song with another zune is as easy as the path the pinball takes on the sesame street number song.

    It takes like a minute to share (squirt) a zune song

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpHzQYKDlWU [youtube.com]

    The thing I was wondering is this. I do not mind the squirting feature, it seems neat and probably could have been implemented in a more intuitive way (IE have a squirt button instead of traversing 3 menus and a submenu) but the idea itself is "ok." Though I do have a problem with "squirting" a song in reference to a player that looks like it was molded in shit.

    So they have some possibilities for cool features! They have wireless... why do they not leverage it in more interesting ways.

    As you can see in the video they can see other zune players, in fact it seems incredibly intuitive.

    Now lets say that it is true wifi and could probably support 5 or 6 streams coming out of it... why do they not have some kind of "Zune broadcast" feature were people can look at zunes, see what they are broadcasting or who they are listening too, and let people tap into the music that way... maybe even have some sort of re-broadcast peer to peer feature were each zune re-broadcasts what it is playing if someone wants to listen to the same song...

    This way if you knew a lot of zune friends you could have them sample the song before you squirt it into their zune... though even talking about the zune and squirting makes me kind of uncomfortable.

    Also, since it has wifi, why do they not provide a program that lets your computer do the same thing... IE submit to someones current audio stream.

    This is even "better" than bringing an ipod to a club and having them plug it in, you just bring your zune in, start your stream and the DJ could link into it. OR you could go to your house, have your computer plugged into a nice sound system, and have it plug into what your zune is playing, this would allow you to use the zune as sort of a music remote control were you have a nice interface in your hand.

    Or it could be used the other way around, the computer could transmit music and the zune could log in and see the music being transmitted... Microsoft even has Media center edition which would be perfect for this kind of thing, or it could be a plug in to their current media player. This way people could come over, log their zunes into your computer network and listen to music rocking down the line.

    Maybe internet radio, walk into a wifi cafe, set up your zune, and listen to radio streaming from a remote radio station that is on-line, NPR for example (though you might want to find one to your tastes ofc).

    How about wireless synchronization with podcasts? Walk into a wifi area and hit "sync" and have it sync with all the podcasts you are behind on and then tell you which ones you haven't listened to yet.

    Maybe they could work with an online video provider similar to youtube and hook up a method to stream user videos to the zune in an easy fashion, something that would nearly be a killer app for anything.

    Imagine a youtube branded mediaplayer with wireless access (maybe even work with phone companies for EVDO support) were someone could log into youtube and download youtube videos right to their phone.

    I mean, the possibilities are ENDLESS and OBVIOUS. You merely have to think "man what would I love to do with a wireless capable player that can be locked into a major brand and legally buy music for" etc... and it seems Microsoft chose one interesting feature to focus on and implement poorly (squirting) and then made it so that the player broke every compatibility rule that you can think of, and made a SONY mistake were it changes format and requires that you re-purchase to play.

    In the end you have to ask yourself "WTF"

    and note, all of this is without the criticism of making blood contracts with record companies etc... it is saying "here are the things you made me hope you would provide, then you provided... this"

    --
    If you don't vote, you don't matter, so don't waste your time telling me your opinion
    1. Re:Zune has so much promise by Buzz_Litebeer · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Actually, upon reviewing it, it took about 40 - 45 seconds with two people demoing and hitting the buttons in correct order.

      One person sent it, then the other sent it back.

      I could easily see doing it in a couple of seconds, just click on the song playing or in a list, hit "send" and then send it.

      Or why even do that, just put it as "share" and share it with whoever wants it in the room. They could log into your zune list and just grab the song if they think it is neat. Think of the ultimate collaborative experience.

      --
      If you don't vote, you don't matter, so don't waste your time telling me your opinion
  4. Blame The Xbox 360 Mess by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

    One of the Microsoft Zune people was talking about the company's original plans for the product on one of the company discussion/bitch boards a few months ago. He stated that the originally the Zune was going to be funded/subsidized with 360 money but that plan went up in smoke with the mess the 360 turned out to be - the massive extra cost for all the defective consoles and the low sales of the console(worse than the first Xbox).

    He indicated that the profits from the 360 were supposed to give used to undercut Apple's iPod prices by a significant amount. But that the continue massive Xbox losses made the Zune come out at a higher price than originally intended. And that the days of Microsoft just throwing billions away to gain marketshare were over.

  5. Give it time... by gentlemen_loser · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Let me preface this by saying that I am actually a fan of Apple and I hope that I am dead wrong on this. But look what they did with the XBox, Web Servers, and Browser. Microsoft always tends to start slow with a crappy product and take heavy losses. Over time, they'll leverage Vista and everything else they can to turn the Zune into a household name. Apple is in a good position at the moment, but all it takes is one mistake.

    In my opinion, Sony screwed the pooch with the PS-3 and MS took advantage of it. With the war chest they have, they do not need a better product. They only need to be able to win a war of attrition.

    1. Re:Give it time... by UnknowingFool · · Score: 4, Interesting
      But look what they did with the XBox, Web Servers, and Browser. Microsoft always tends to start slow with a crappy product and take heavy losses.

      Xbox: Anytime a company is willing to take billions in losses to get marketshare, the product should be able to place better than 2nd place to the PS2.

      IIS: Even though it is bundled with Windows Server, it still is second place to Apache.

      IE: Ahem, didn't they get sued by leveraging their monopoly on this one?

      So far none of the examples succeeded on their own merits.

      --
      Well, there's spam egg sausage and spam, that's not got much spam in it.
    2. Re:Give it time... by badasscat · · Score: 2, Interesting

      But look what they did with the XBox

      They didn't do jack with the Xbox. In fact, I'd have to say the whole Xbox project has been a colossal failure by almost any definition.

      They spent a total of more than $6 billion on the system. They have so far made back $2 billion of that.

      With that $6 billion, they managed to buy 20% of Sony's market share and about 10% of the overall industry's market share. Yes, the PS2 outsold the Xbox by 5:1 worldwide.

      The Xbox 360, now, is still being outsold by the PS2, and it's behind the sales curve of the original Xbox. This is 2006. They couldn't beat the PS2 with their old console and they can't beat it with their new console. The 360 is also behind sales projections by about 3 million units - and has been an even worse failure in Japan than the original system.

      Now that the PS3 and Wii are on the market, it will be interesting to see what happens, but the 360 has already never once been the best-selling system, and that was with no current-gen competition! It would be like MS putting out the iPod and Sony beating them with a Discman. This is the best MS and their billions can do?

      You would *hope* anybody spending $6 billion, losing $4 billion in the process, would end up with more than 10-20% market share. But that's likely to be the pattern with the Zune as well. No doubt we'll get people in here once they've cracked 10% market share labeling the Zune a "success" too.

  6. iPod historical sales figures by amightywind · · Score: 5, Interesting
    How many Windows iPods were sold a few weeks after they hit the market?

    I had every intention of flaming you, but you are right. These sales figures show that it took over a year for iPod to really take off.

    --
    an ill wind that blows no good
  7. Re:iPod has something to fear by BeerCat · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Microsoft duds - Bob, Windows at Work. Fair enough.

    OTOH, Office succeeded more because it was a bundle for less than the cost of WP plus 1-2-3. Oh, and all components looked the same (thanks to being Windows based), and worked more similarly, so learning one meant that learning another had already started. And there were "extras" (Org Chart and so on). Despite how good technically 1-2-3 V3 and WP5.1 were, they were arcane to learn.

    As for Zune, well it looks as though Microsoft used Taco's review of the iPod and stopped all thought there. No WiFi - well ours has. Smaller than an Archos - well ours is bigger. Lame - well...

    --
    "She's furniture with a pulse"
  8. The real reason... by necro81 · · Score: 2, Interesting
    The real reason (tongue in cheek) that the iPod has nothing to fear boils down to the ineptitude of many people who sell consumer electronics. FTFA:

    Moreover, some MP3 salespeople hadn't even heard of Zune, even though the players are being sold at their stores, he wrote in his report.

    Quotes from retail clerks cited in Munster's report range from them claiming they don't know what the Zune is, to comments that Zune is a good option if a customer does not use Apple's iTunes software.

    "To be honest, I don't really know much about the Zune," one clerk is quoted as saying in Munster's report. Another said, "I don't suggest the Zune because it is really heavy," according to the report.

    If these are the people that Microsoft is relying on to sell the Zune to the masses, they are seriously outgunned by the hordes of iPod lovers.
  9. Re:Bah. by dangitman · · Score: 2, Interesting
    But then again, Mac users are a bunch of die hard sheep anyway, so it doesn't really matter if it was a shiny metal turd.

    What do Mac users have to do with it? The vast majority of iPod owners are using Windows.

    --
    ... and then they built the supercollider.
  10. Re:Merchant Support by seven+of+five · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The fact is that Microsoft should be big enough player to dictate to the RIAA how things are going to be rather than the other way around. Even Apple, substantially smaller, bullied them effectively.

    Bullying? The labels are making more off itunes than Apple is. I think Jobs found a workable arrangement that attracts customers, pays the labels, and manages to not lose Apple much money. If the labels made a bigger cut of the same amount Apple would lose more. If Apple jacked up the prices to appease the greedy labels it would probably drive customers away, encourage more p2p, and the labels would end up getting a lot less.

  11. The only MP3 player you will ever need. by Pojut · · Score: 2, Interesting

    On the go alot? Don't care if you have massive quantities of albums with you at all times?

    Get a Rio Carbon! I've had my 5-gigger for roughly 3 years now. I used to use it when working on cars (I was a professional mechanic) dropped it upwards of 20-30 times. Thing still works PERFECTLY. Drag-and-drop, no software required. Hooks up using a standard mini-USB cable, 20 hours on one charge, can also be used out of the box as a portable hard drive...small as shit. Easily controlled using one thumb, MUCH faster interface than the clumsy "touch-ring" Ipod.

    On the road alot? Still want those 20gigs?

    Get a Rio Karma! Same easy to use interface as a Carbon, COMES with a docking station that A. Has USB 2.0 and Ethernet hookups (so you can hook it directly into your network, turning it into a digital jukebox) and B. Has RCA line-outs so you can hook it up directly to your stereo. Have had mine for about 2.5 years, works perfect, looks fantastic, and fits inside the palm of your hand (i.e. won't overlap the base of your fingers...yes I know not all hands are equal size, but my hands are fairly small)

    Oh and did I mention? Both the Carbon AND the Karma can play nearly any audio format!

    Seriously. I never understood the whole Ipod thing. To me, they have always been and always will be overpriced "look at me" gadgets designed for a generation too stupid to know that no matter how much reflective plastic you cover shit with, it is still shit.

  12. Zune by HuckleCom · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Personally, I think the zune is a superior product to the Ipod. Not being taken in by the 'something-new' placebo, I simply like it. The Zune handles pictures better than the Ipod. Likewise with movies with the horizontal orientation. The menu system was much easier to figure out and isn't a PITA to work with opposed to the clickwheel which is more-so oversensitive than being useful for scrolling through large song lists. The Zune will start slow because it will take a while for people to get their heads OFF of the Ipod and to see the Zune for what it is. The IPOD was slow because of it's price... when people saw their friends with one and realized what a product it was, then it took off. I say likewise with the Zune. My problem is that "Zune" is too close to "Zen"...

  13. Re:Ugly by 4iedBandit · · Score: 2, Interesting
    Point me to a version of iTunes without DRM from Apple please.

    This is a trick question right? Every version of iTunes ever can play and rip *gasp* DRM-less files. The mp3 files I ripped using iTunes will play in any mp3 capable app or hardware.

    Oh, you meant the iTunes Music Store? Have you even heard about the DRM in the Zune? Oh that's right, you wanted to excuse the DRM issue on the Zune and only talk about Apple's DRM. If you want to say Apple's is bad you have to show how MS' is better. Were you asleep when everyone was talking about the Zune automatically wrapping music in DRM even if that music was given away by the creater for free? Sorry, the DRM in Zune is MORE restrictive. But that's okay as long as it's not the evil Apple empire, right?

    While the Zune has limited Wi-Fi, iPod has NONE.

    "This one is better, it goes to eleven." Wow, and I thought that was just satire, but people like this really do exist. Okay, you got me. The Zune has a longer feature list. Even if the feature is crap.

    Sideways viewing :

    Okay. You got me here too. You like your device on its side. Hey, good for you. You can have the Zune I'm not buying.

    Apple fanboy are we?

    MS fanboy are we? You may not like the iPod, that's your choice. But the fact of the matter is that Apple nailed the market. They didn't do that by leveraging their dominance in any other market. They have no dominance anywhere else. They didn't do it by introducing crap and refining it over the past 5 years. The iPod was a hit from year one. They did that by creating a product that works well, consistantly and with style.

    --
    "The avalanch has already started, it is too late for the pebbles to vote." -Kosh
  14. WiFi Buzz by SuperKendall · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The reason they probably don't yet stream music is because they've not yet solved the WiFi buzz (audio noise) you get from enabling wireless on a Zune...

    Read about it on a blog that listed the top ten ways Microsoft could improve the Zune.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    1. Re:WiFi Buzz by Agripa · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Operating an RF transmitter in proximity to an audio amplifier without creating audible artifacts is a non trivial engineering exercise. Not only do you have to worry about the obvious sources of interference through the input and power supply lines but the output stages can be affected through the output leads. Usually the interference mechanism is AM rectification by PN junctions. The WiFi signal itself is probably not the problem but turning the transmitter on and off is a form of AM modulation. Cellular phones using TDMA have the same issues.

  15. What I don't get is... by Bertie · · Score: 2, Interesting

    How hard can it be to produce a decent player, really?

    The market in portable MP3 players has been around for a fair few years now. The iPod runs the show because it does what Most People want to do, in a nice friendly way, and is brilliantly marketed. There are a thousand and one players on the market for Everybody Else, which offer more functionality, better sound quality, less DRM restrictions, lower price, whatever. Pretty much every single one of these competitors is deficient on the usability front, and most of them have some head-slappingly bad UI howlers that make you wonder just what the hell they were thinking when they designed it, or indeed whether they were thinking at all.

    And then, having had years to learn from everybody else, good and bad, Microsoft rocks up with the Zune. Oops.

    Why can't they, and everybody else, understand what makes for a good portable music player? Why do they give Apple such an easy ride? The iPod really isn't any great shakes, it's just that the competition is mostly rotten. With each revison Apple have done just enough to keep half a step ahead - for example, the rather fudged implementation of gapless playback that finally arrived with the last updates took away one of the main reasons why I personally wouldn't buy one (seriously, folks, if there's no gaps between the tracks on the CD, and your player puts them in, that is a bug. Fix it. And yes, I know MP3s can't really do true gapless).

    Really, Apple's market dominance is there for the taking. All it takes is a bit of application. Why can't anybody come up with the goods?

  16. Re:So, why is that? by Fred_A · · Score: 2, Interesting
    MP3 is available to all for a slight fee. OGG is free for the taking yet few use it. How backward.
    Actually there is apparently a slight advantage in using MP3 over Vorbis. Since the latter is more CPU intensive, it reduces the battery life. At least that's what transpired from tests made on a user web forum with the H3x0 iRiver players. I suppose results could be different with other CPU/implementation combinations.

    As to why the implementation itself isn't more widely available on the players, I have to admit it's a complete mystery to me as well. My first player (CD based) predated the format so my oldest rips are in MP3. Then my (now lost) iRiver supported Vorbis, then I briefly had a Creative which didn't (and which I didn't like for that and mostly other reasons so I'm selling it), and the Cowon I currently use supports it. Now I have a mix of MP3 and OGG Vorbis in my collection. OTOH I never buy any music online, I only rip the CDs I buy and I don't really get into the trendy player thing (my Cowon A2 might be bulky but does lots of things, plays the radio and runs Linux :) ).

    The lack of Vorbis support is a bit of a puzzle. At one point it was supposed to be because it required a lot of floating point math that the CPUS wouldn't support, but I think there's an integer implementation now. Presumably it's just inertia and NIH. I understand that nobody would make a Vorbis only player, but not even adding it on top of the other formats... Too little perceived advantage vs. the work that would have to be invested for the codec integration I suppose. Shame.
    --

    May contain traces of nut.
    Made from the freshest electrons.
  17. It's not the hardware, it's Microsoft's approach by hmbcarol · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The Zune hardware is not too bad. Some reviews have actually said it's really pretty good. The problem is that you don't try to take on the market leader with a device that is about as good for the same price. Esp if it's larger, heavier, and has less battery. The biggest "cool factor", the WiFi isn't even remotely useful until there is a critical mass of Zune in the wild. If you want to squirt stuff from your Zune you have to find someone else who has one.

    But it's not flying off the shelves. It's NOT EVEN ON some shelves. It will fall off the Amazon top 100 in the next few days. The iPod is 5 or 6 of the Amazon top ten electronics sellers. The #1 at Amazon has firmly been an iPod for weeks. (Zune was #94 last I checked)

    And Microsoft has done everything right. They were able to convince the entire non-iPod MP3 player industry to adopt Plays-For-Sure so they could all be put out of Microsofts way at once and they STILL can't outsell Creative's player.

    Would you do business with them after they lured you into Plays-For-Sure?

    They were carefull to pay off the RIAA through Universal Music for each Zune sold. The RIAA gets their money when you pay at the cash register. That way people can know they are doing the right thing.

    Everyone who wants to send a buck to the RIAA by buying a Zune raise your hand!

    They did a lot of focus groups and their ads had the right mix of Black, White, Asian, women, men, young, and old in their "Welcome to the Social" ads which feature some kind of music player. Did their ads really inform anybody about the Zune? Why I want one instead of an iPod?

    They carefully came up with a misleading "points" scheme to cloud how much a song costs and to force consumers to leave a few cents on the table for each purchase. This is sure to appeal to the average buyer.

    The only one who deserves a Brown Zune for Christmas is Bill Gates.

  18. Re:Market maybe to well established by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

    It could be that the people likely to spend $200+ on an MP3 player already have. And once you decide on your brand of MP3 player you get locked into that ecosystem (plays for sure/Fair Play). Even if your looking to upgrade your not going to want to loose all your music. It will be interesting to see if the market place will even tolerate what is essentially 3 type of audio. But don't count Microsoft out they have nearly unlimited cash and almost every marked they dominate today they entered late and up against a very well entrenched foe.

    Apple beat them to the desktop computer and the GUI OS
    Novel beat them to the Network Server OS
    Lotus and WP beat them to the Word Processor and Office Suite
    Netscape beat them to the Web Browser
    Apple and then Palm beat them to the PDA
    In all of these areas they were at a huge disadvantage and yet now are the undisputed leaders. So far it looks like only Google has been able to hold them off when Microsoft decides they want to enter an industry. Never underestimate what Billions of dollars and mindless determination will get you.
    Of course we will have to wait until the 3rd Gen Zune before they iPod has to really worry

  19. Help me out by Shimmer · · Score: 1, Interesting

    This is a sincere question, not a troll: What's the appeal of the iPod in the first place?

    I'm 40 years old, so it goes without saying that I'm completely uncool, out of touch, etc... but I don't get it.

    I bought my wife a little Sony MP3 player for roughly $100. It does pretty much everything that an iPod does, at half the price but with less "style". So why do people pay the premium for an iPod? Just to look cool? Or is there something truly unique about the iPod that I don't understand. I mean it's basically a CF card hooked to a D-A converter with a bit of software glue, right? What magic does Apple add that makes the iPod so appealing?

    --
    The most rabid believers in American Exceptionalism are the exact same people whose policies are destroying it.