Iraq Study Group Reaches Concensus
reporter writes to point us to a story in the Washington Post reporting that the Iraq Study Group has reached consensus and will issue its 100-page report on December 6: 'The Iraq Study Group, which wrapped up eight months of deliberations yesterday, has reached a consensus and will call for a major withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq, shifting the U.S. role from combat to support and advising, according to a source familiar with the deliberations.' The Post mentions that first word of the panel's conclusions came from the New York Times yesterday. The Times points out that it is not clear how many U.S. troops would come home; some brigades might be withdrawn to Iraqi bases out of the line of fire from which they could provide protection for remaining U.S. operations.
"shifting the U.S. role from combat to support and advising"
That's how we got into Vietnam.
Where were you when the voynix came?
"Personally I wish we (the US and its allies) would formulate a common long term plan (good or bad) and just stick to it."
Personally, I'd rather they not stick to any bad plan. Why would anyone possibly want that? What has "sticking to the same plan no matter what" brought us for the lasdt 3 or so years?
Where were you when the voynix came?
Didn't most of the U.S. (government aside) reach this consensus in like 2003?
In a world of acronyms, the words are the real victims.
Not that it really matters since Bush is already planning to ignore what the study group says. He'll just continue to "Stay the course".
We will bankrupt ourselves in the vain search for absolute security. -- Dwight D. Eisenhower
"When reading The Washington Post, always consider the diametric opposite position from whatever agenda the WaPo pushes. Consider http://newsbusters.org/node/6863 [newsbusters.org]"
Reading Newsbusters is as valuable as reading FAIR.org. These so-called "watchdogs" are lapdogs of media that share their own fringe biases, and they bite the media just for not sharing their opinions and political bias.
Where were you when the voynix came?
" If this thing goes like Vietnam in reverse then the step after "military advisors" is handing it over to the French."
It's a perfect plan. The French get a lot out of it too: since it is running backwards, the typical French retreat ends up looking like the French charging into victory. "Cheese-vomiting conquest monkeys" indeed!
Where were you when the voynix came?
Speaking from the Whitehouse lawn, President George Bush made a surprise statement today.
"Today's report from the Iraq Study Group has highlighted something that has been on my mind for sometime - my Iraq strategy has failed. I think the right thing for me to do is to apologise to all those people who, during the build-up to our invasion, warned me both publicly and privately that my strategy was unsound and the basis for it wrong. Members of the U.N. weapons inspectors - Hans Blix and Mohamed ElBaradei, I would like to apologise to you for deliberately undermining you. Jacques Chirac - Jacques, you were right, and I'm sorry that my adminstration went out of their way to mock you. My good friend Tony Blair, who chose to stand by me even when I acted like a bully and knew you had deep reservations about my decisions. To all of you, I hope you accept my sincere apology."
I'm not as worried about the Shiite dominated area. I think that, in the long run, Arab/Persian tension will keep them from being dominated by Iran. It would be nice to have alternative leadership for the Shiite world.
You should be worried, of course given your apparent dearth of knowledge about the region it is no surprise you see it that way. But here's the problem: Saudi Arabia also has Shi'a areas. And, surprise, surprise, those area have oil. You separate the Shi'a in Iraq and they get a base of operations to foment resistance to the Saudi regime.
As for the Sunni area? They basically become irrelevant, especially since Baghdad will become Shiite. The Saudis will likely step in and offer some sort of support to stabilize this area.
Wow, tacit approval of ethnic cleansing, nice.
All in all you seem to miss the point, the US in reality has no say on whether Iraq splits or not, there is and will continue to be a civil war which will decide these matters.
A blog about stuff.
"Divide Iraq into three regions"
Word of advice from the British Empire: things get really sticky later on down the line when outsiders draw lines on maps and tell locals how it's going to be.
I supported the conflict initially, but have since come to realize how foolish this little adventure was. Ultimately, we were duped into believing we could do the impossible. The main problem is that Iraq is an artificial state, with little real unifying history, religion, or any common identity. It was created by the European powers at the end of World War I, following the breakup of the Ottoman Empire. It was created arbitrarily, for the sole convenience of the Western powers, with complete disregard to ethnicity and religion. THAT's the problem with Iraq. This is a problem at the very root of society. You can't drop some troops in there, and expect a vibrant, healthy democracy to just magically spring out of the Euphrates.
I think occupations can create democracies, by holding a diverse group of people together long enough to develop a common identity. It was done by some European powers, take India for example. The problem is that this sort of colonialism takes a large-scale occupation, much larger than we have now, for a time span of MULTIPLE DECADES. This is economically, strategically, and politically impossible in the modern era.
In order to hold this unstable country together, you either have to be a brutal dictator like Sadam or act like the freaking Romans. I suspect if every time a US soldier was killed we rounded up and killed 500 random people, the resistance would end quite quickly. However, any nation created this way will only last as long as that threat of force is present.
Ultimately, I think the people in charge of this whole charade knew this was going to happen all along. In the minds of the neocons who started this whole thing, the people of Iraq are just one piece in a puzzle. You'll notice lately that US troop casualties have been falling while Iraqi casualties have been rising. This is because our troops have been retreating to fewer, larger bases, performing fewer daily patrols, and patrol in more heavily armored convoys. The insurgents have gone for easier targets, Iraqi army members, and mainly, innocent civilians. Sunnis fight Shiia, Shiia fight Sunnis, the Kurds just want out entirely, and everyone wants a piece of the non-uniformly distributed oil resources.
I think the military is really content to sit back and watch as Iraq destroys itself, while the US troops serve their purpose, guarding the valuable oil pipelines. For the people in charge, as long as the crude is flowing, the whole country might as well just drop dead. Also, the troops presence serves a second important function. By having a large troop presence in the center of the Middle East, the pentagon intends to keep Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and all the major powers in line. While our boys on the ground fight for their lives trying to help the Iraqi people, the people at the top are looking at grand strategic goals.
And that is why we went there in the first place. Not WMDs, not democracy, not anything else. Our troops are there to stabilize Iraq's oil flow, and to keep the whole region in line, stabilizing the larger oil supply. The Iraqi people are meaningless. Our troops will be behind high walls and thick armor, while the rest of the country degenerates into pure chaos.
Never mind that it's technically impossible for them to lose,
Hmmm, never thought of that. I guess since we don't have any goals in Iraq then it's impossible to fail at those goals, ergo we cannot lose.
Good god man, you're a genius.
Call the white house.
A blog about stuff.
The Iraqis may be slow but the problem is that the whole country was used to a dictator and it took someone that strong and tyrannical to overcome the religious and ethnic differences between the people. Take away the order of the dictator and nobody knows what to do or to expect. You'd be moving slowly too if you'd never experienced democracy and lacked the overwhelming government infrastructure required to make it work. All we have now is lawlessness, and no clear roles for people or groups. Naturally all the thugs and zealots are struggling to get whatever power they can and it has turned into a civil war. In my opinion, the Iraqis are not going to pull it together by themselves because 1.) they have no experience 2.) the disruptive forces are much bigger than the calming forces and 3.) there's no help from their neighbours or anyone in the world. The only way to avoid a 100 year civil war is to have the UN go in with 50,000 peace keepers along with a coalition of middle east leaders (honest ones) and work for 5-10 years on setting up a functioning government and infrastructure. The chances of that happening are next to zero. Bush wrecked the country
There's something in the American psyche these days that demands they leave every job half done.
That's convenient.
There is/was something in the American Administration that demanded that it botch every single aspect of Iraq war planning, from the general idea (Al's a threat! Let's attack Iggy!), to the lack of a plan to keep the peace (as the Shinseki episode so cleary demonstrates).
It may be hard for you to understand, but some people oppose the war, and did so from before the start, because it was a bad idea, poorly implemented.
Simple Unexpected Concrete Credible Emotional Stories
Since we never really had an objective, it would be easy to declare victory no matter the outcome. Disarm Saddam of his WMD? Done--before we even arrived! Regime change? Done. Would've been done sooner, if we hadn't armed and financed him, but let's not dwell on fine points. Pay him back for his support of Al Queida and his role in 9-11? Er, okay, bad example.
But PR can do anything. All they have to do is say "We won! Bush is a great leader!" and trumpet it over and over and over and over, while acting indignant that anyone would ever suggest that Bush, Cheney, and the neoconservatives bear any responsibility at all for anything bad that happened in Iraq (though we can credit them for every flower that bloomed, it seems) and eventually people will come around. If there is ethnic cleansing and tens or hundreds of thousands killed in internecine war, it's not as if the US population is going to sit down and say, "well hell, our President is responsible for that." People consider themselves and the government they voted for responsible for the noble things they meant to do, not what they did. A school opened and a child got a puppy? That's because of George Bush, God bless him. That kid gets killed later that day by a rocket? Not us, Bub. This isn't new--how many Americans felt responsible for the Khmer Rouge? How many Americans care that American financiers helped Hitler? There won't be a reckoning, because there never is. It's too easy to pat ourselves on the back for our nobler motives, and ignore what our decisions actually resulted in.
They've been calling the war a "quagmire" since, what, week 2?
The fact that this "war" was unwinnable was obvious to the majority of the world's population before it even started.
Try ignoring the media and talking to your soldiers some time if you want a realistic picture of how things are going in Iraq.
Sure, I'll run right over there and ask them. Or maybe I'll check our some picture they can no longer send. Oh, wait I know I'll ask someone who is essentially *ordered* to have a positive outlook how things are going.
Maybe you need to go ask an Iraqi how things are going.
A blog about stuff.
Who, exactly, are they going to support? The current government is a barely functioning coalition of religious factions, several of which have their own private armies. The only thing stopping them going hammer-and-tongs at each other are the US forces.
Not that I trust the media either, but asking soldiers? Here, let me tell you in advance how it's going to play out:
"You mean I just spent the last X months (years) of my life away from my family in this god forsaken dust bowl getting shot at, not knowing when the next IED is going to go off, seeing my buddies get killed, maimed or shell shocked, all for nothing?"
Nobody wants to think they've endured all that pointlessly. So they'll continue to cling to the notion that this fight can be won, or that civil war can be averted. Otherwise, their sacrifice is meaningless - and that is a thought too hard to bear. To ask a soldier is to get the answer that victory is attainable, because the alternative doesn't bear thinking about.
(Note: The above is not an endorsement of either the media coverage, or the opinions of any political party. I think they have their own biases and agendas too.)
I live in that tiny little place caleed "the rest of the World", and I can guarantee you this war was considered a disgrace ever since your president started talking about it. Face it, nobody bought Bush's crap outside of the US, in spite of the great effort from our media corporate machine to convince us otherwise.
Only some right-wing politicians (and Blair, the poodle) gave their approval, but they would suck the American President's dick any time, no matter who he is or what party he belongs to.
I do think that the aftermath of the military victory was handled poorly.
This is the latest right wing talking point. Don't admit it was a brain dead idea from the beginning, blame the execution. They're trying the same arguments about Viet Nam. It wasn't the intent, it was the execution. It's setting up Rumsfeld to be the patsy and gives the Republican Congress a pass on not doing anything resembling oversight. Where was all this brilliant insight during the build up to the war?
Divide Iraq into three regions. Kurdistan in the north, which would include the border areas around Mosul, the northern oil fields, etc. A central/western Sunni Arab area, and a southern/eastern Shiite Arab area, including the southern oil fields.
ROFL! That's almost as good the pre-war planning. You just alienated Turkey with the independent Kurdistan idea and gave the Kurds a nearly infinite supply of money to fund Kurdish separatists with the oil field revenue. You alienated one of our better allies in the region and funded ongoing instability in a formerly stable region. Off to a great start.
The Saudis will likely step in and offer some sort of support to stabilize this area.
You got that part right but if you think the Saudi money will go to fund stability you need to put the crack pipe down. The Wahhabis supply most of the really freaky, unstable radicals in the region and there's a good chance the bulk of those funds would end up in the hands of Al-Qaida. Everyone who thinks leaving the Sunnis to depend on the most radial elements of radical Islam for funding please raise their hand.
'm not as worried about the Shiite dominated area.
You're not worried about setting up an Islamic regime run by a radical strong man with ties to Hezbollah? Now I know you're high.
You are right that there's no avoiding a civil war at this point, mainly because it's been going on the last year and half. And you're right that we're not going to fix what's broken with the exercise of military power. Pull our troops back to over the horizon bases...an idea which John Kerry suggested and Bush poo-poo'd. Situate those bases so our guys can help control traffic across the Saudi and Iranian borders. Not that leaving Syria and Jordan borders unguarded is a bright spot, but you have less than 100K troops to work with and that's all you can do. Turn over management of our continued presence to the special forces generals instead of regular Army, which was another huge mistake that tends to get glossed over. But when you have so many screw ups to pick from, it's easy to miss one or two.
That's our life, the big wheel of shit. - The Fat Man, Blue Tango Salvage
Established facts:
1) There were no WMDs
2) We all thought there were WMDs
3) We are currently in Iraq
4) Most of us think we should not have gone in the first place, largely based on what we know now
I am tired of disputing these topics. We are there, right now, regardless of why, and whether or not you did support/would have supported the invasion. Let's get past that and talk about what to do now to try and make the best of this. This report (which, BTW, none of us have actually read) allegedly starts from the present and tries to figure out the best course of action from this point forward, and I applaud that. I just wish that some slashdotters could do the same thing.
We get it, you hate George Bush. He is not (by a long shot) my favorite president either, but that shouldn't matter right now. Can we grow up and move on to actually accomplish something, or do we need to keep pointing fingers and accomplishing nothing?
The plan is to stay in Iraq until the last helicopter leaves the embassy rooftop...
I'd say it was true. heck, Bush snr even said it - it's in his Biography that he counciled his son against it.
Some nations need strong, nay extreme leadership to keep them together because they're so volatile. Saddam was a nasty piece of work but he was at least reasonably predictable. As one Iraqi noted in an interview, at least under Saddam he knew if he did x, y or z he'd get tortured and maybe killed. Now he fears that just for going down the shops.
It's a huge mistake to assume everyone in the world feels and thinks like we do. They do not and htings that might seem trivial to us are big deals for them and vice versa. Sometimes these people need someone who is a bit of a psycho to keep a lid on things and we are now seeing in Iraq what happens when rule with a rod of iron is taken away. Something similar happened in Yugoslavia, strong domineering leader dies, everything goes to crap and people who apparantly got on with each were suddenly at each others throats.
I want a list of atrocities done in your name - Recoil
What the grandparent post was saying, but I guess a typo got in the way of the message coming across, is that at least in America it's *really* difficult to get objective information about how the war in Iraq is going. Each news source might have a different idea about it, might be talking to different officials that, yes, are ordered to stay on message, or might have ulteriour motives that prevent it from delivering unbiased information. In addition, yes, soldiers and media are extremely limited in what photographs they're permitted to send back home.
Why do you think it is that all the *retired* generals in the US army seem critical of the war in Iraq? Once they're retired they're no longer under orders to stay on message, and the message that the administration has chosen is that everything's under control. It isn't, and I think most people accept that there's little possibility of it getting under control the way things are going now. I've talked to soldiers, I've read blogs, I've done enough research to satisfy myself that the "quagmire" of Iraq has turned into a "shitstorm" and it's time to get out.
People like Richard Perle seem to think that Iraq is an unfolding disaster:
1 2/neocons200612
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http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2006/
The neo-cons - the architects of the ideology if not the actual war - are cutting loose like no one's business. They seem to think the war is going badly, and they're blaming the chimp.
And even if you don't believe the figure of 100,000 people fleeing Iraq every month, that it mught be 50,000, or even less, it's still people going gone get. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6158847.st
Dead bodies found:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6160117.st
more killed. every day, yet more.
If this is victory
Patriotism is a virtue of the vicious
The soldier I asked was pretty drunk, but I figure we can forgive that since he was discharged due to losing his right leg above the knee from a roadside bomb.
If you see him again, buy him a beer for me.
This is something we don't hear about very much. I was deeply distrubed when the news and government started to only report U.S. fatalities. Every other report of war I'd ever heard talked about casualties, as in soldiers taken out of combat by death or injury. It sounded very suspicious -- the numbers sounded fairly low (at the time) relative to other conflicts, but all I knew about other conflicts were casualties, which are always several times higher than the number outright killed. Yet those numbers weren't being mentioned, making it sound like a deliberate attempt to hide the larger and thus more depressing number.
So as we cross past the 3,000 mark of dead coalition soldiers, we have 46,000 non-mortal casualties. Not all of those are crippling injuries, but nevertheless we're going to be seeing a whole lot more soldiers like the one you met. Especially like that, since the roadside bomb taking out a soldier's legs but not killing them seems to be the most common mode of injury.
I hope to God all those people who support this war will "Support the Troops" when they see one sitting at the traffic light on a board, no legs, holding a sign that says "Iraq vet, need food and work" and drop the man some cash. I know I will.
Figures are from http://www.icasualties.org/oif/
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