Slashdot Mirror


Scientists Predict Big Solar Cycle

An anonymous reader pointed us at a post on the Physorg blog, which discusses the possibility of an upcoming period of intense solar weather. We've discussed this before, but increasingly the evidence looks like 'Solar Cycle 24' (due to start in 2010 or so) is going to make life interesting here on earth. From the post: "Hathaway explains: 'When a gust of solar wind hits Earth's magnetic field, the impact causes the magnetic field to shake. If it shakes hard enough, we call it a geomagnetic storm.' In the extreme, these storms cause power outages and make compass needles swing in the wrong direction. Auroras are a beautiful side-effect. Hathaway and Wilson looked at records of geomagnetic activity stretching back almost 150 years and noticed something useful:. 'The amount of geomagnetic activity now tells us what the solar cycle is going to be like 6 to 8 years in the future,' says Hathaway."

3 of 131 comments (clear)

  1. Wondering... by Darundal · · Score: 3, Insightful

    ...if anyone more knowledgable about the subject for me could tell me;

    A: What areas of the Earth are likely to be most and least affected
    B: How bad are the effects supposed to be
    C: What are some examples (links to articles or research) of previous effects that may be widely known (other than the Aurora)

    Thanks

  2. We call it 'astrology'. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    But seriously, there's a guy in New Zealand who publishes weather predictions based upon lunar cycles. He has a loyal following, even though 99% of the time he's wrong. On the rare occasion he gets it right (either by chance, or by making the same predictions as genuine meteorologists) his flock proclaim his method to be completely reliable and accurate. Strangely enough, when he's wrong, they either remain silent, or claim he was right by applying highly selective interpretations of his predictions and the actual weather.

    Just as 'astrologers' concoct incredibly vague predictions, such as "Something interesting may occur to somebody or something at some time in the future. Or not", and then triumphantly announce success when something does or doesn't happen. Yet far more people trust astrologers than scientists. I guess that explains a whole lot about the completely fucked-up mess that is the human species.

  3. Re:Solar Cycle 24 by cbacba · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Wrongo

    Solar cycle 24 is starting now, it will peak a little around 2010 or 2012.

    It's more likely time to sell stock in suntan oil companies. The ozone hole is likely to decrease substantially (somewhat depending on mt aribus' outgassing activities). It's possible the hole might decrease to the lowest amount it's been measured at due to the expectations of this cycle's strength. Unfortunately, it very possible that the envirowhackos will have a field day on global warming as this cycle strengthens due to interactions between the increased magnetic activies, the cosmic ray backgrounds and the formation of cloud cover - permitting the slight rise of temperatures due to the decrease in cloud formation we will probably get due to the decrease in cosmic ray impacts due to the increase in magnetic field activities. Also, we can expect more areas to have drought conditions although at present we are still getting lots of rain due in part to the fact that we are flat out at the minimum between cycles 23 and 24.

    Don't expect the whackos to know or admit the above because it doesn't promote their political agenda based on the supposed man created global warming.