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Scientists Predict Big Solar Cycle
An anonymous reader pointed us at a post on the Physorg blog, which discusses the possibility of an upcoming period of intense solar weather. We've discussed this before, but increasingly the evidence looks like 'Solar Cycle 24' (due to start in 2010 or so) is going to make life interesting here on earth. From the post: "Hathaway explains: 'When a gust of solar wind hits Earth's magnetic field, the impact causes the magnetic field to shake. If it shakes hard enough, we call it a geomagnetic storm.' In the extreme, these storms cause power outages and make compass needles swing in the wrong direction. Auroras are a beautiful side-effect. Hathaway and Wilson looked at records of geomagnetic activity stretching back almost 150 years and noticed something useful:. 'The amount of geomagnetic activity now tells us what the solar cycle is going to be like 6 to 8 years in the future,' says Hathaway."
I know many in the amateur astronomy community are gearing up for this cycle, and are saving their pennies for H-alpha filters & telescopes.
My point is, such forecasts of such still poorly understood phenomena still seem to go wrong much more often than they go right. And then when someone does happen to hit it right all I seem to hear is, "See, we knew all along. Now listen to us always!"
"It's the height of ridiculousness to say for those 9 lines you get hundreds of millions."
This year was supposed to have several MAJOR hurricanes, worse than ever before, because of "Global Warming".
IIRC, 11 were predicted. Zero appeared.
I suspect this Solar catastrophe prediction will be just as accurate.
Running with Linux for over 20 years!
Solar Cycle 24 actually starts at solar minimum, which is right about now. The cycle, which is about 11 years long, will peak in about 5 or so years from now, when there will be the most activity on the sun. Although, major flares and CME's can happen anytime, as witnessed by the large flare earlier this month during solar minimum.
Another interesting factoid is that the magnetic field of the sun flips its polarity every eleven years around solar maximum, where the north pole of the sun becomes the south pole, and so on.
-rv
...gotta start saving for that H-alpha telescope. Believe it or not, for about $500 you can buy a telescope that allows you to view the sun through a filter with a bandwidth of less than .1 nm. This gives you an idea of what you can see with it.
Doesn't it make you feel good to know that our freedoms are protected by politicans, lawyers and journalists.
The amateur radio community (Yes, we're still here) is waiting with baited traps for the "Peak of '24". Ya see, its only in the cycle peaks when amateur radio becomes too much fun. Times like now, in the valley of solar near-death, we have to fight to maintain any contact with our buddies. Remember when Cb radios would skip from Alaska to Mexico? That was a solar maximum, and a weak one at that. Imagine what you could do with a legal kilowatt of power and a well engineered antenna! I know some of the old timers who are literally praying for a few more years before they go "silent key" in order to reap the harvest of contacts that is predicted. If you wish to experience the true camaraderie of thousands of geek friends and associates, during what may be the most interesting solar cycle yet, start studying for that ham ticket. We've made it even easier than ever before. See ya down the log.
In the fall, I went back to school in western NY state (Alfred University, near the NY/PA border), and on many nights in December, we could see vivid Auroras even over the campus light polution. At the time, I didn't think it was possible for them to be visible at such a lattitude. If the next maximum ends up being as strong as predicted, we might even see them farther south.
I can't believe no one has mentioned this, but that correlates neatly with the end of the Mayan long count calendar, signalling the end of the fifth age and mankind (according to some sources, also a new beginning of some sort), and the start of the sixth. Heres an excerpt from the article:
The end of the 13th b'ak'tun is conjectured to have been of great significance to the Maya, but does not necessarily mark the end of the world according to their beliefs, but a new beginning or time of re-birth. According to the Popol Vuh, a book compiling details of creation accounts known to the Quiché Maya of the colonial-era highlands, we are living in the fifth world. The Popol Vuh describes the first four creations that the gods failed in making and the creation of the successful fifth world where men were placed. The Maya believed that the fifth world would end in catastrophe and the sixth and final world would be created that would signal the end of mankind.
The last creation ended on a long count of 13.0.0.0.0. Another 13.0.0.0.0 will occur on December 21, 2012, and it has been discussed in many New Age articles and books that this will be the end of this creation, the next pole shift or something else entirely.
I don't know if thats the coolest thing I've ever seen, or the creepiest.
What he can't kill, he has sex on. Trent.