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iPhone Faces Uncertain Market
48 hours have passed since Steve Jobs's MacWorld keynote and the reality distortion field is beginning to wear off. Lists of the drawbacks of the announced iPhone are sprouting all over the Net (and there is the occasional defense by true believers). Now narramissic writes, "The iPhone may be poised to take over the high-end cell phone market, but is it a market worth taking? Not if an InStat survey from July is any indication: Of 1,800 consumers surveyed, just 21 had spent more than $400 for a cell phone. Prices for the iPhone, admittedly more of a handheld computer than a cell phone, start at $499 for the 4G-byte version with a required two-year contract with Cingular. So, is Apple pricing it right? Analysts quoted in this article seem to think Apple's going to have a hard time getting the 1% of market share that Jobs called for."
...and the iPhone is exactly what I want. But I'm not buying it. It's cool, but it's not $500 cool.
I'll probably buy a cheap-o model and wait. Someone let me know when there's an unlocked model for $250.
What if I do the same thing, and I do get different results?
Apple tend to launch a product and then fork it into a product family that covers a nice price range. This format could expand to include a hard drive and become a real portable hand-held, the new Newton. It could also shrink to become a simpler phone. Expect the actual release model in June to have much more memory, and better battery life.
The biggest problem with all smartphones today is that UI design is generally terrible. If Apple can get this right, and make a family of phones that react quickly and are fun to use, they will sell a lot of them.
Further, it seems to me, phone or not, that this is what the iPod will look like in 2 years time. The wheel is no longer needed, and this format makes video a pleasant reality.
So it's quite possible that the "phone" part of this product is less significant than the large-screen, no-button, Apple-inside format.
My blog
The iPod line needed a reboot, and the iPhone was splashiest way to do it. In fact, this device is the logical evolution of the Newton MessagePad. Think about it. Apple realized that boring contact lists, calendars and handwriting recognition won't encourage the Unwashed Masses to adopt portable computers. People are far more media-centric than that.
The rejuvenated iPod lineup will tempt you with music, movies and games, while offering an addictive combination of go-anywhere Wi-Fi browsing and email. And you can bet that Apple is planning to open up third-party development as quickly as possible.
As for the iPhone device, the bleak reality is that it is slightly larger than a 5G iPod. Too big to slip into the pocket of my jeans, which means it's too large to use as my everyday phone. My hard drive-equipped iPod usually lives in a messenger bag on my shoulder or in a jacket pocket, simply because it's too bulky to function as an "everywhere" communications accessory. I wouldn't be willing to carry something as large or expensive as the iPhone with me everywhere I go. I'd look like a dork with my calculator on a belt clip. Besides, mobile phones are expensive enough to begin with and many people (especially students) will balk at the idea of committing to a 2 year $1000+ mobile voice/data/voicemail contract after shelling out $599 for the iPhone itself.
No, the real magic will happen when Apple releases a $299 version of this device - the next generation iPod - that retains everything but the GSM + EDGE phone technology. At that point, the iPod will be perfectly positioned to become everyone's favorite teeny-tiny ultraportable computer.
In order to meet their 1% goal they need to sell 10M phones in 2008 (the first full year they are available). That is directly paraphrased from Steve Jobs during the keynote. It may be hard to sell a $500 to $600 phone in those quantities. But Steve Jobs himself said they are going to continue developing iPhones (3G...). Does anyone really think that this is the only phone Apple will be selling for all of 2008?
I think Apple will sell a lot more than 10 million iPhones in 2008 when they add the iPhone nano to their lineup a year from now. I predict the iPhone nano will be physically smalelr and drop some of the pricey "smart phone" features of it's big brother. But it will still have the great interface and importantly, style, of it's big brother. Probably will come in colors too. $200-$300. That will fly off the shelves.
You heard it here first.
Spyky
You know of a phone with a full-sized web browser? Pinch interface for resizing? Random access voicemail? The same ultra-thin form factor? A dock connector?
God, just thinking about the dock connector means I can plug this thing into my car for music, and continue to take phone calls during lunch, AND check my email and surf the web. All in the Subway parking lot.
"Sufferin' succotash."
If this fact remains true, then while the interface is a little clunkier, there are any number of things that my Treo can do that the iPhone will never, ever be able to, and believe me, I sincerely hope that the Apple VP who made that saddening statement is either very stupid, or very misinformed.
The secret to creativity is knowing how to hide your sources. - Albert Einstein
I've heard stories of Cingular's bad service, but I go to a store in person and don't take any shit from them. I even had them unlock my old AT&T phone to work with a new cingular contract, though it did take a call to some sort of supervisor person.
09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0 is the magic number.
Several points you make are valid. I don't think that these points will add up to enough to make the iPhone fail. I do think that they will be addressed in future versions of the iPhone.
It is like the original iPod: A good friend ran out and bought the 5GB 1st Gen iPod right when it was released. When the 10GB model was released he ran out and bought that one because he had a music collection much larger than the 5GB (and also much larger than 10GB...) Then, shortly after Apple shipped the 20GB model and he was kicking himself for not waiting - especially after I bought the 20GB model. Although, I am pretty happy with my timing because right after I bought mine they changed over to an iPod with the dock connector and I prefer the standard FireWire connector.
I'm just guessing, but I think there will probably be an improved iPhone that has 3G support and much larger strorage space sometime in 2008 if not sooner. I could see them adding GPS and coming out with an SDK for developers, etc. (I expect Apple to announce some kind of SDK for iPhone at WWDC - even if it just Dashcode 2.0.)
My advice is that unless you just have to have the iPhone as soon as possible, wait at least three months. Typically new Apple hardware has a few annoying glitches that show up in the field and are addressed in approximately that timespan. For example, the original iMac was revised a couple months after it shipped to have much more VRAM and as I recall the Rev B. iMac was much more stable than the Rev. A iMac. Another example is the MacBook Pro. I just bought a MacBook Pro a few days ago. So far, it is rock solid. And it doesn't run hot like the first ones did. Recently I found out that the ones like mine that have the Core 2 Duo also have 802.11n radios just waiting to be activated via software update. So, frankly I am thrilled with my timing on this purchase. Another friend (different guy) in my office bought one of the first MacBook Pro models and it had a lot of problems. He had to have the motherboard replaced and it runs really hot. Well, that's what you get with brand new hardware designs.
I think the same thing could be true with the iPhone. I may get one because I develop for the Mac and my company will probably buy me one to develop for - or maybe I'll get prototype hardware (one of our execs is at MacWorld trying to talk to Apple Developer Relations about letting us develop for iPhone). I have no idea what the policy will be for third party developers. From what I've heard, its a closed system, but third parties can contact Apple if they want to write for it. So, we'll see - I had prototype hardware for the Newton 2000 before it came out. But if for some reason this doen't happen and I have to shell out my own cash for an iPhone, I'll probably wait a couple of months and see what the reader reports on Macintouch say before I buy one.
Avoid Missing Ball for High Score
Let's see:
Apple iPod Demand Iffy
Pundits compliment, criticize iPod
Favorite excerpts from that second one:
My amazing wife - Artist, Author, Philosopher - Laurie M