Slashdot Mirror
All Flash iPod Line-up on the Horizon?
VE3OGG writes "Several news reports are taking note of the opinion of Prudential Equity Group analyst Jesse Tortora, who seems to think that an all-flash iPod lineup could be coming in the near future. While some point out that this would ultimately super-inflate the cost of iPod production, Tortora rebukes them: '...the late 2005 Nano transition to flash provides a guide as to the point at which the previously mentioned non-cost advantages of flash memory outweigh the cost premium.' He believes that later this year Apple will unveil either a 32GB or 64GB flash-based Video iPod. Of course, like all good analysts, he also throws out some far-fetched claims. These include: the next round of video iPods will also include an iPhone-esque wide touchscreen, WiFi for Apple TV streaming, and GPS functionality. Will this be the start of a super-high-end iPod line, or perhaps a middle-of-the-road iPod Video?"
w00t no moving parts. Now make the battery user accessible, and make it play mp3/aac/ogg/flac off directories and not itunes databases and we're all set. ... yes I know you can use things like gnupod to put your own tunes on. It's just a pain in the arse.
Tom
Someday, I'll have a real sig.
Most analysts and (unfortunately) executives look at golden plated requirements as a good thing, even though (in many cases) they really aren't ... An all flash iPod with tons of flashy features sounds great on paper until you see the price tag at $800; the price tag is never seen as that bad by many of these people because their six figure salary is (way) above their average customers income level.
While I expect an iPod equipped with 64GB of flash memory would be quite expensive, it is also the perfect market to lower the cost of SSD drives. Go Apple, go!
Since Apple is starting to distance themselves from desktop computers with the corporate name change recently and the almost complete focus on iPods as the Mac worldwide market-share continues to flounder down around 3 percent, I guess Apple's long-term strategy is clear:
Pray people keep re-buying iPods over and over again.
This is a classic 'disruptive technology' situation. The Flash memory is more expensive and has less capacity than the moving disc, but in the long term, the benefits would outpace the downsides. When the 3.5" hard drives started coming out, they had lower capacity, cost more, and were slower than the 5.25" hard drives, but they were smaller. How many 5.25" hard drives are being made today? Many of the companies that built 5.25" hard drives failed to survive the transition because it was obvious that the public wouldn't stand for paying more for less. Obvious and correct weren't in agreement, as history showed us.
On a side note, I'm betting we'll see bluetooth enabled iPods before too long. Wireless headsets are cool, sure, but the real money maker will be as a wireless link for the iPods to be available as external storage for things like the iPhone. Doesn't need to be super fast to stream or one-up songs from "The archive" to the iPhone, and there's a continuing market for iPods even for people who just dropped $500+ on the iPhone.
The first iPod is what made all the other iPods possible. It was sexy, it did cool stuff very well, and it was too expensive. Now you can get an iPod Nano for a fraction of the cost of the original iPod and yet it does more stuff better.
Soon people willing to spend extra money to get cool features will be buying very expensive iPhones, and in a few years the spawn of the iPhone will be cheaper and do more stuff. Hooray!
If you mod me down, I shall become more powerful than you could possibly imagine.
As we all know flash based hard drives are coming to PC's (the Mac is a PC too), I don't think this is a big surprise and is probably the way all small devices that have mini-drives are going to go once the cost is wrestled down. Phones for sure will go this way too. It seems like a logical evolution, not a wild new thing.
It's hard to imagine the iPod going flash only if for no other reason than the emergence of video. Sure 64GB of flash is nice, and it certainly holds a boatload of music. But if I start downloading tv shows and movies, that space is going to get eaten up quickly. Also, I would imagine that margins are higher with hd based units. Apple already commands a decent premium just for the ipod name, would they want to eat into this profit by using more expensive flash (assuming they keep their price points about the same?). Does the avg consumer really care if their ipod has a hd or not? I don't think they do. The hd based ipods are already being constrained in size by their screens, so other than making them slimmer, do you really need the space savings? So all that leaves is battery life, and again, is it really worth it for Apple just for that?
Seems dubious to me. Will these new iPods (fictional edition, very rare) also include sensors that can detect your current mood and select music appropriately? Perhaps they will have an attachment that will let you record your thoughts by directly tapping your brain. In fact, I predict that the next iPod will eschew headphones entirely and instead will manipulate your brain such that you will only think that you are hearing music.
Canthros
... the next round of video iPods will also include an iPhone-esque wide touchscreen ...
I expect that this analysis is wrong. iPods are getting smaller and that is making people happy and driving sales. Also, the iPhone will be pretty damn expensive and needs to have a bunch of upscale features to justify it. Keep in mind that phones and digital music players are converging, what I expect to happen is that an "iPod" will be effectively built into the iPhone.
Is it just me? Apple makes this hugely antcipated announcement for the iPhone that has more bells and whistles than any other phone, now you are going to keep the iPod on the cutting edge? My guess is that the iPod won't really evolve much until the technology gets cheaper. Why spend $500 on an iPhone, then turn around and spend another $500 on an iPod that has the same capabilities as a player? Sorry, but I will stick with my smartphone and my iPod Nano which costs about the same as an iPhone.
Insert funny smart-ass comment here.
Even apple points out that the best selling ipods are the cheaper ones. I don't actually think it has anything to due with the form factor for the nano, its the price. The 200$ price point is a popular one, and apple should due whatever they can to keep increasing the desirability of the 200$ model.
Now keep it at around normal "premium" ipod prices ($300) and we have a deal!
:-D
OH, and make sure i can rip that sweet solid state drive out and stick it in my laptop.
Flash is getting cheaper, yes, but even the 32GB flash hard drive is still way more pricey than the spinning media version by an order of magnitude. An 80GB flash hard drive will probalby set you back the better part of $5k or so. Even at Apple's flash pricing, we're still looking north of a grand... and no, I won't give up my disk space. My iPod functions great as a general purpose portable hard disk (that also happens to play mp3s and videos).
A full DVD holds 4.7GB, for lots of video at TV rez. If new iPods had wireless networking, even an iPhone, their Flash would be a cache. 4GB is already only $35, which sounds like a workable replacement for HDs in a networked environment.
--
make install -not war
saying ipods will become flash-based is like saying all houses will eventually have indoor plumbing after it had been installed.
but i thought usb drives were an indication of the state of the art with the stuff. i see 4G drives now, and that's what the nano ipods are. how are they going to make this huge jump from 4G to 64G within a year -- and keep it affordable?
mr c
"Physics is like sex. Sure, it may give some practical results, but that's not why we do it." - R. Feynman
the price tag is never seen as that bad by many of these people because their six figure salary is (way) above their average customers income level.
History, especially recent history, and very especially the history of the iPod, has shown that's false. Execs are acutely aware of prices of their items. Sales price is the single most important thing to any exec because it's how you make money!! People think that because an iPod isn't $25 that it's not priced for the masses. Guess what? If you can only afford $25 for an mp3 player, then Apple is NOT targetting you. Execs spend boku bucks figuring out the right market for their goods and services.
Will they use market forces to keep their prices high? Sure. Corporations aren't by any means populist, they know exactly what they are doing.
"All great wisdom is contained in .signature files"
Because some people want an iPod and not an iPhone.
Why spend $500 on an iPhone, then turn around and spend another $500 on an iPod that has the same capabilities as a player?
Who is planning on doing that? Many people? Actually, I can see having the iPhone, but also a Nano for working out or some other situation where the phone my be too bulky.
I like the I iPhone but [1] I really don't need *that* fancy of a cell phone and [2] Cingular can suck my hard one.
I have a dire need of a multimedia PDA.
I hate Cingular (Sprint subscriber myself, all hail PCS!)So no iPhone for me.
I wish my iPod did more "personal" things like a palm does.
Consider the market, once you add personal organization into the devices?
"Mom, I need an iPod to keep track of my homework assignments."
Then what will Zune do?
It's not about functionality. It's not about value. It's not about speed. It's about having the smallest, sleekest, hippest gizmo on the block. It's not uncommon to see people scrimping and saving for weeks to purchase the latest iWhatever even though they've got two or three functional previous models at home. Like shoes... Apple sells consumer electronics the way people sell tennis shoes.
...and I'm always right... ;-)
- of course iPods will EVENTUALLY be flash-based, same way that LCDs have pretty much displaced CRTs in the computer monitor market. But it'll be a couple years at least. I'd say HD-based iPods will be with us until at least until Summer 2008. There's a big difference still between 2 GB, 8 GB, and 80 GB. Not everyone needs a ton of storage on an iPod, but some people really, really do, and they won't settle for smaller. Flash iPods are higher-capacity than the very first HD-based iPod, but that doesn't mean no one's buying the bigger ones. Apple can make plenty of money on 100 and 120 GB iPods before they've got to switch designs.
- don't look for ANY new features (widescreen, touchscreen) in the iPod until AFTER the new iPhone is released--long after. Apple always introduces nice but expensive stuff and makes a ton of money off the early-adopting/big-spending crowd, then they release a version that's a bit better and/or cheaper and get the next round of people, and so on and so on and so on. Apple is going to get a lot of money from people who want a widescreen iPod by selling them the iPhone first. THEN they'll put out a widescreen/touch-based iPod. Since the iPhone comes out this summer, I doubt Apple will release a new iPod until Jan or Feb '08. Look at what they just did with the Shuffle--they released a new one last Fall, sold a bunch over Christmas, then, January 30, HEY! LOOK! COLORS! Raise your hand if you think Apple forgot that they know how to anodize aluminum when the new Shuffle was introduced last fall. Get all the money you can, improve, repeat.
Dear Slashdot: next time you want to mess with the site, add a rich-text editor for comments.
I'm in web design mode, and read this as Adobe/Macromedia Flash, not flash memory. Imagine my relief upon realizing that wasn't what "All-Flash iPod Lineup" meant!
Step into a huge movement. Don't Tread In Me.
http://www.eetimes.com/news/semi/showArticle.jhtml ;jsessionid=B2PRBFV3QLFISQSNDLSCKHA?articleID=1970 02923
This article was in My EE times yesterday. It talks about the rapidly falling price of Nand flash.
Samsung already has single chip 32GB flash as of September of last year and expect to hit 64GB this year. You can buy 16GB solutions already for less than $300 in onesy-twosy retail (and generally a chunk less for millions of them).
There is no reason not to think 64GB of flash will be down to $300 retail Summer of '08.
[RIAA] says its concern is artists. That's true, in just the sense that a cattle rancher is concerned about its cattle.
Sorry to confuse...those would be gigaBIT chips not BYTES. Translation: density goes up, price goes down.
[RIAA] says its concern is artists. That's true, in just the sense that a cattle rancher is concerned about its cattle.
...and develop a Flash-memory-based, forearm-mounted computer with a 7"x2" (or 2.5") touch-sensitive screen. It's hard to fathom how much booty that would kick. iPods are great and all, and the iPhone is rubbish but a proper computer that basically turns you into a sci-fi techie all Predator-style actually interests me. Charging "bases" at home, office, and car means you can keep your art-mounted compy permanently charged.
The screen would need to be that multi-point pressure-sensitive one that the Asian guy from NYU demonstrated recently... wish I remembered the link to the video for that...
And yes there should be "future-proof" versions of various levels, with option including a laser cannon, self-destruct mechanism, retractable blade, Star Wars-style grappling hook, tranquilizer gun, mace spray, and spare tire.
I like basketball!!1!
People with more than 60gb of music may want to put all their music on their mp3 player. Looks like they might have to wait longer.
Just like..... well, everything else. Technology is always expensive at first, then later it gets cheaper. This is called "progress". Imagine that. If not for the early adopters, we'd never be seeing the cheaper spawns a few years later.
kurzweil_freak
5th Kyu Genbukan Ninpo/KJJR student
Be the darkness that allows the light to shine.
Sounds pretty good, but for me iPhone is going to be a better choice, since I can merge all my pocket devices to one...
Pixel image editor (Win,Lin,Mac) - http://www.kanzelsberger.com
I posted something like this elsewhere, but... From a recent semiconductor industry report, the latest NAND Flash spot prices (2/5/07) are: 2Gb ... $2.6
4Gb ... $3.9
8Gb ... $6.3
Assuming the same ~1.6x-ish price increment for each doubling of capacity:
16Gb ... $10
32Gb ... $16
Times 8 to get GB gives me a rough estimate of $128 for the NAND chips in the 32GB drive. Add a bit more for the other hardware and contract pricing and a cost of $160 for the storage portion of a 32GB flash iPod at current prices isn't too bad. Note that prices will fall by "later this year". I'd guess a starting list price of over $300, for which you'd get the slim design, better battery life and probably, bigger screen (maybe even some iPhone design elements).
There are people who can't fill their 8 gig nanos and people who are stuffing their 80 gig videopods. Is there a realistic upper bound to how much space a person really needs to hold whatever media they care about between syncs?
It seems to me that this isn't just a case of flash finally getting cheaper, but also people potentially reaching the limit of how much data they need to carry around. Flash is getting cheaper, but in principle, so is harddisk technology. What it costs to get a 30 gig harddrive today, you can in principle use to get a 60 gig harddrive tomorrow.
So the question becomes not so much "I can get 32 gigs of flash for a reasonable price now" as "I have no need for more than X amounts of storage." And thus harddrives will eventually lose on the scale of what I need and how much I'm willing to pay for it.
See http://www.eetimes.com/showArticle.jhtml?articleID =197002923
$5.15 for 8Gb NAND (though I wonder what the space requirements would be for a 10 NAND package iPod might be). Also note that even though this is current market price, predictions are for these parts to get much cheaper yet and Apple could potentially be setting up contracts with that in mind (i.e. contracting now in volumes at say 67% market)... so rather than $200-300 it'll be more likely that an 80GB iPod would require $30-50 of NAND flash memory.
While I wouldn't call "BS" on account of there being other ways to do it... that's a really cool idea.
http://www.bitworksmusic.com/
BitWorksMusic.com -- odd tunes for odd times
If Apple were to make an iPod with a user interchangeable flash card such as a
compact flash cartridge or a Memory stick the limitations of how much flash the unit held would be gone. Filled up your flash?, just remove it and plug in a new one. (Gee,which memory stick did I put that podcast on?). They'd have to put some flash in the unit soldered to the circuit board to hold the OS and user settings, only the music would be on the interchangeable flash. This would allow an infinite amount of storage, though not all on line at once. Plus as denser devices become available, just plug them in for an instant upgrade (Nah, Apple wouldn't like THAT).
I see 16 GB CompactFlash but not 16 GB Memory Stick PRO or 16 GB Memory Stick PRO Duo. Where are you finding this?
Momentarily. The increase in demand causes a momentary movement along the supply curve toward higher price, but after a few months, economies of scale push the supply curve down toward lower prices at each quantity.
Avoid Missing Ball for High Score
If Apple decided to ditch their OS in flavor of the favor of the month: Adobe Flash, there would be a customer backlash you wouldn't believe. I didn't read the article, nor did I read the blurb up top. The subject said it all: IDIOTIC. Not to mention I don't think Apple would want to be at Adobe's mercy. So there!! ;P
-"...bad old ideas look confusingly fresh when they are packaged as technology" - Jaron Lanier (Digital Maoism on Edge.o
GPS and wifi would be great additions. But the new feature I really want is FM radio, so I can stop carrying around both my iPod and my old iRiver MP3 player for the FM radio portion.
I received an iPod as a Christmas gift, and was dismayed at the thought of returning it because my music is mostly Vorbis. Enter Rockbox. It's still a work in progress; battery life isn't as good as Apple's native firmware and video playback doesn't work, but it can play a wide array of formats and let me use the iPod the way I wanted to.
"These new iPods will be cheaper than the hallucinogens I snort!"
Lars T.
To the guy who modded me down from perfect to terrible Karma - Apple haters still suck
And a video iPod today costs $349 for the 80GB model, or $4.36/GB. Some savings, indeed!
"[Regarding the 'cloud,'] ownership was what made America different than Russia." -- Woz
Thank God somebody finally mentioned this. I've done it too, and my God it only took like 5 minutes to do and looked like it was untouched when I was finished.
Cost about 20 bucks too for the battery and the tools, I can well imagine I'd have used 200 dollars worth of AA batteries over the years I'd owned that thing if that was my option. And don't even tell me about rechargables, I use them every day for my kids toys...
Freakin' haters.
Ocean is land, covered with water.