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"Market Share" "Installed Base" and Consumer Electronics

redrum writes "Analysts and reporters like to talk about market share statistics, but the conclusions they draw are often misleading, RDM reports. Market Share Myth 2007: iPod vs Zune and Mac vs PC takes a look at how numbers are used to paint grossly inaccurate portrayals of the market share of the Zune among iPods, and alternatively the Mac among PCs. A follow up article, Market Share vs Installed Base: iPod vs Zune, Mac vs PC demonstrates how the conventional wisdom of market share reporting can be turned upside down by simply comparing what vendors actually sell. An eye opening, in depth look at the real numbers behind PCs, music players, and console games."

21 of 264 comments (clear)

  1. Re:Ahhh, roughly drafted by Jeff+DeMaagd · · Score: 3, Informative

    The blog entry didn't say that iPod created the hard drive market, it claimed that iPod expanded the market. The blog entry was pretty clear in stating that there were hard drive players before the iPod.

  2. Re:"Myth busting" with undocumented assumptions? by crmarvin42 · · Score: 4, Informative
    Instead of skimming the article, try reading all of it. He indicates that they idea of 5 year useful life span for mac's vs. 2 for PC's was based on anectodal evidence, yes, but evidence. He didn't just create those numbers out of thin air.

    In studying the history of PC purchases made by a client with around a hundred employees, I found the company was still using all of their original Macs dating back to 2001, with a few even older Macs still in secondary use. In contrast, there were no PCs more than three years old still in use, and most of the older models were in poor shape. Around 80% of its machines were PCs, and nearly all of those were commercial grade Dell OptiPlex or Latitude models; the other 20% were Macs. About a third of the entire 115 machines were laptops.
    Besides, I've seen several articles over the years indicating that mac's have a longer usful life than PC's. If you need more anecdotal evidence my family has 3 macs that originally shipped pre-Mac OS 10 (2 with OS 9.1 and 1 with the last version of OS 8). they are all currently running OS 10.4 and used every day. I also have one that's sitting in the closet that has 10.3 installed on it and the only reason it's in the closet is because I own more computers than there are people in my house hold.
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  3. Re:Ahhh, roughly drafted by kalidasa · · Score: 2, Informative

    Put another way, do we really need a pro-mac blog to provide a multi-part essay on why the Zune is not a success? I mean, this thing is as much a dog as the Apple ROKR!


    Actually, that's the Motorola ROKR; it wasn't an Apple product, but merely licensed Apple software. If you had said "Apple Newton" or "Apple Lisa," you'd have made a better point (but not "Apple Pippin," as the Pippin was also intended to be a licensed technology platform and not an Apple product.

  4. Re:Most interesting part by dreamchaser · · Score: 2, Informative

    Not to mention that revenue !=profit, and that the margins on hardware (Apple) and Software (MS) are *vastly* different.

    It's not even really apples to oranges...it's apples to rocks.

  5. Re:"Myth busting" with undocumented assumptions? by smallfries · · Score: 2, Informative

    You keep refering to "anecdotal evidence" as evidence. It is only evidence that a) a single office has macs with a lifespan that long and b) your family has macs with a lifespan that long. The whole point with anecdotal evidence is that it is not evidence that the lifespan of macs in the marketplace is normally that long.

    This announcement was brought to you by the board of pendantic criticism.

    PS I've had my PC for about 8 years. It's had a couple of new motherboards, a new case, new harddrives, many processors and several videocards. Does this datapoint prove anything?

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  6. Market Share Vs. Installed Base by hullabalucination · · Score: 2, Informative

    Old article on Slashdot:

    http://apple.slashdot.org/apple/05/06/05/0548225.s html?tid=3

    Summary: Software Publisher's Association and other groups estimated in 2005 that 16% of all computer users were on Macs.

    * * * *

    All my life, I always wanted to be somebody. Now I see that I should have been more specific.
    --Jane Wagner

  7. Fun with numbers by sweatyboatman · · Score: 2, Informative

    It seems obvious that he picked the 4th quarter because Apple had a revenue spike.

    Microsoft's Balance Sheet vs. Apple's Balance Sheet

    It would appear that over the last five years Microsoft (profit over 5 years: ~$50B) has consistently made quite a bit more money than Apple (~$3.7B) has (and profits at both companies are growing quickly).

    I guess his point is that Apple's making money and selling stuff. Which is nice for them, but that's what companies are supposed to do.

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  8. Re:Most interesting part by kripkenstein · · Score: 4, Informative

    In the final quarter of 2007, Apple earned $7.1 billion in revenue, compared to Microsoft's $12.5 billion in total revenue. Yes, that's right, Apple brought in more than half as much money as Microsoft, despite Windows owning 98% of the PC market.

    Amusing how RoughlyDrafted sort of misleads with these figures, when he is ranting against other misleading statistics. Based on Wikipedia (disclaimer, but I recall it is basically right from the official reports), Apple had almost half as much revenue as Microsoft in 2006 ($19.3 to $44.2 billion). So yes, as claimed, Apple's revenue is around half that of Microsoft's. But look at net income: $1.73 vs. $12.6 billion - Microsoft makes more than 7 times as much, when measured by net income. So, just as RoughlyDrafted says, partial figures can be misleading.

    In this case, the cause of the discrepancy is quite obvious: Microsoft sells a product with zero marginal value - software. This is basically making money from nothing. Apple, on the other hand, makes actual 'real' products, that cost money to make - Macs, iPods.
  9. Re:Ahhh, roughly drafted by SnowZero · · Score: 4, Informative

    I'm not sue what article you read. The one I read jumped all over between topics, didn't finish one issue before launching into the next, and included graphs that it didn't even adequately explain. Roughly drafted, indeed.

  10. Re:Ahhh, roughly drafted by jrumney · · Score: 2, Informative

    The blog entry didn't say that iPod created the hard drive market, it claimed that iPod expanded the market.

    Expanded isn't really the right word. When the first iPod came along, hard-drive players were using 3.5" laptop hard-drives. Apple found a manufacturer that was about to launch 2.5" drives, and bought 6 months of their entire production, blocking competitors from being able to match their smaller players for the first six months of the iPods life.

  11. Re:Most interesting part by maxume · · Score: 3, Informative

    On 60% of Microsoft's sales. That is not a good thing for Apple. Microsoft can afford to flat out waste billions of dollars and still have higher operating margins than Apple.

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  12. Re:Most interesting part by maxume · · Score: 2, Informative

    Software has zero marginal cost. The marginal value is whatever someone is willing to pay you for it.

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  13. Re:Ahhh, roughly drafted by gozar · · Score: 4, Informative

    Expanded isn't really the right word. When the first iPod came along, hard-drive players were using 3.5" laptop hard-drives. Apple found a manufacturer that was about to launch 2.5" drives, and bought 6 months of their entire production, blocking competitors from being able to match their smaller players for the first six months of the iPods life.

    It was actually other manufacturers using 2.5" drives when Toshiba introduced the 1.8" drive with which Apple used with the iPods.

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  14. Re:Make it required tech journalism reading by RFaulder · · Score: 2, Informative

    Now I dont know about you, but i've never seen a Mac without Symantec installed on it, and I dont know of a single person who has ever used Geek Squad, IMHO if you need Geek Squad you dont deserve to opperate a computer anyways, and that $1400 you blow on them is your own fault.

    Wow, I didn't even know Symantec even makes anto-spyware or the mac, especially since it doesn't exist (for now). And as for Geek Squad, the Best Buys in my city give you a Geek-Squad install thing when you buy a new computer, so I'd assume that after they set up a box in people's homes they realize that the service was quite nice and get them in more often.
  15. Re:Make it required tech journalism reading by C0vardeAn0nim0 · · Score: 2, Informative

    Now I dont know about you, but i've never seen a Mac with Symantec installed on it

    there. I fixed it for you.

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  16. Re:Who is redrum? by imroy · · Score: 4, Informative

    "redrum" would appear to be Daniel Eran, the owner of roughlydrafted.com. The people over on digg.com have accused him of spamming Digg with his articles and then using sockpuppet accounts to 'digg' his stories (and only his stories) to get them on the frontpage (or however it works on Digg). When this was found out, he was banned from Digg and he took this personally. In his deluded mind this is a conspiracy against Apple by pro-Microsoft minions. He even has people email Apple asking them to set up a "pro-Apple" competitor to Digg. Daniel Eran is a sycophantic Apple fanboy of the worst kind.

  17. Re:Ahhh, roughly drafted by Brett+Johnson · · Score: 2, Informative

    This didn't matter much, because the first iPod sucked (small capacity, Mac-only, no AAC support, mechanical scroll wheel prone to failure, etc.)
    I had a 1st generation iPod and loved it.
    • small capacity - 5GB was a hell of a lot more capacity than the Rio 800 I had beforehand.
    • Mac-only - I have 4 Macs, so that wasn't an issue. Even after Windows support was added later, Firewire-only was the real problem (so few PCs had working Firewire).
    • no AAC - When Apple started shipping AAC, it provided a firmware upgrade to all iPods (including 1st gens) adding AAC support.
    • mechanical scroll wheel - I still prefer the feel of the mechanical scroll wheel. Mine never failed - and I could use it when wearing gloves.

    Actually, my biggest complaint of the 1st generation iPod was its size and weight. You could put it in a shirt pocket, but you wouldn't want to. Eventually, the hard disk in my 1st gen died after 5 years, so I replaced it with an 8GB nano.
  18. Mixed Metaphore by alexhmit01 · · Score: 3, Informative

    Drinking the Kool-aid refers to a cult whose leader had them drink the poisoned kool-aid and they died. Drinking the Kool-aid means that you believe in the leader on faith, originally from the phrase "don't drink the kool-aid" from the Jonestown masacre.

    Sugar-water is Apple specific. When Jobs lured John Sculley from Pepsi, Jobs asked Sculley, "Do you want to sell sugar water for the rest of your life, or do you want to change the world?"

    Hence the Sugar Water and "Change the World" quotes are Apple quotes, and have nothing to do with the Kool-aid quote you are referring to.

  19. Re:Make it required tech journalism reading by Fred_A · · Score: 2, Informative

    Wow, I didn't even know Symantec even makes anto-spyware or the mac, especially since it doesn't exist (for now).
    I wasn't aware of any such product either (but then my iBook is mostly a typewriter to me). So I went to Symantec's site and did indeed find a few MacOS products. Couldn't quite see the point of them though. Other than making money for Symantec that is. Oh. Right. Sorry. I get it now.
    --

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  20. Re:Make it required tech journalism reading by arminw · · Score: 1, Informative

    .... but i've never seen a Mac without Symantec installed on it......

    Well, I've had 13 Macs since the first mac plus and NONE of them has ever had any Symantec crap installed. The only anti-virus program that ever lived on any Mac was a program called Disinfectant, which was a freebie program. None of the Macs we have now, nor any Mac owners I know have *any* sort of anti-malware software. Macs without all that garbage are still safer than any Windows machine with every anti malware program in existence installed thereon.

    The need to install such stuff on a computer is equivalent to having to install seat belts, airbags and anti-lock brakes on a new car. Modern cars should and do come with these from the factory.

    Hopefully the need for such expensive, troublesome extra garbage software on Windows machines has been eliminated or at least greatly reduced with VISTA. I ordered a copy of VISTA to try on one of our PCs.

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    All theory is gray
  21. DECS (Daniel Eran) submitted this story as redrum by MojoStan · · Score: 3, Informative

    "redrum" would appear to be Daniel Eran, the owner of roughlydrafted.com. DECS's Slashdot User page (scroll to bottom) shows that DECS (Daniel Eran) submitted this story. DECS has also sucessfully submitted (got accepted) six other stories that pimped his own site, roughlydrafted.com. It appears that Daniel Eran entered "redrum" in the "Your Name" field of the Slashdot Submission page, but DECS's user page reveals the true submitter of this story.

    The people over on digg.com have accused him of spamming Digg with his articles and then using sockpuppet accounts to 'digg' his stories (and only his stories) to get them on the frontpage (or however it works on Digg). When this was found out, he was banned from Digg and he took this personally. Daniel Eran's shenanigans have actually been covered on Digg:

    Photographic evidence of AlexaW and RoughlyDrafted gaming Digg just to get moron Daniel Eran's articles to the front page. (Where they promptly get buried for being inaccurate.) Several users who ONLY digg AlexaW's submissions, all of whom signed up in the last 3 weeks. Coincidence? Not a chance. This needs to be stopped immediately. More on Daniel Eran:
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