MMORPG Used to Model Real World Disease

Oxygen99 writes "The Times is reporting on a paper by researchers in the US who argue that the spread of 'corrupted blood' in World of Warcraft might provide clues to the way a real world population would cope with the prospect of a global pandemic. In the study, to be published in The Lancet next month, Professor Lofgren of Rutgers University and Professor Fefferman of Tufts University, suggest that: 'If, God forbid, a disease broke out in London, you could see what would happen if people were told immediately of the risk. Would there be panic and chaos, or would it allow them to psychologically accept the danger and act accordingly? What would happen if we made people feel too reassured? These are all things that have a great impact on the number of people who would be affected. They are also things we just don't know, so [virtual games] could be of great value in helping us understand what their true emotional responses would be.'"

Comments

I remember that

[Pojut]

I remember when that shit was going on in WoW...it was insane people were dropping like flies. Very much like the scene in 28 weeks later when everyone is locked in a room and they are slowly overtaken by infection.

You could literally stand on top of the bank in Org and watch the disease spread. It was actually a bit terrifying.

Re:I remember that

[Puff of Logic]

You could literally stand on top of the bank in Org and watch the disease spread. It was actually a bit terrifying. Indeed. It occurs to me that perhaps Blizzard might take what was essentially an oversight and turn it into a world event. A properly designed disease, spread at a reasonable rate and requiring a cure that would confer immunity after that, might be an interesting community event. A slow, constant loss of hp when online might result in healers becoming almost doctors while other classes searched for a cure. Bandages, alchemy, herbs, and so on could have a role to play. Obviously some deeper thought would be required on this, but I thought it an interesting idea.

cheers.

Re:I remember that

[Pojut]

Yeah, but you also have to look at the demographic that WoW was/is trying to reach compared to who Eve is trying to reach. WoW was designed so that yes, you have to put in many MANY hours to get to the endgame, but you still feel like you accomplished SOMETHING even if you logged in for only an hour.

Eve, as amazing of a game as it is (and it really is an amazing game) requires at least a few hours per sitting to really feel worth it (similar to everquest) It's designed with a different type of gamer in mind (whereas WoW serves to try to suck in both gamers and non-gamers alike, hence it's "dumbed-down" gameplay)

Re:I remember that

[SatanicPuppy]

Yea, it was pretty cool. I don't know how it would ever model anything because it's got a few flaws over a real world model.

First, there is no incubation period. There is no "unwitting carrier". If you have it, you know it, and you spread it either intentionally, or because you're an idiot. I carried it a few times for giggles (I nuked Org once by zerging the AH while infected), but for the most part, if I got it, I'd go hang out in a corner 'till I died.

Second, the transportation methods are completely unrealistic. You get it in IF, you hearth to SW, and poof, you've infected two population centers in a matter of moments. A mage could get all three, easily, without much danger of dying before people were infected.

Finally, a substantial subset of the population actually wants to get the disease, so people are actively seeking it out for themselves so they can spread it.

Re:I remember that

[cptnapalm]

"a substantial subset of the population actually wants to get the disease, so people are actively seeking it out for themselves so they can spread it."

Such people are called bug chasers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bug_chaser

Re:I remember that

[Knara]

disclaimer: i've played EVE on and off for years

In my mind, *the* most important aspect of EVE's skill training system is that it pretty much destroys the ability of a 13 year old with no responsibilities in real life to powerlevel to the top of the game in a few days.

Make no mistake, macroing your way to resource acquisition ("macro mining" for example) is discouraged (and not-infrequently those engaged in the practice can be harassed and profited *from* -- by stealing their ill-gotten gains, for example -- if you understand the in-game mechanics well enough), but I much prefer the skill training system in EVE to the "make a bunch of skill level 30, then 45, then 60" items in games such as WoW, which is a pain, and really doesn't add to the gameplay.

Re:I remember that

[eht]

Unrealistic transportation methods? A good part of the populated North America could be infected in less than a day by a single patient zero carrier, Europe is the same way. And infectious diseases chain from one person to another, you wouldn't even have to leave the airport, just let other people from the airport fly away and infect others for you. In less than a week a single patient zero could easily infect the world, yes it isn't the same as World of Warcraft, but people don't die in minutes from infectious diseases either, otherwise they'd have a hard time being transmitted.

Re:I remember that

[Dmala]

I nuked Org once by zerging the AH while infected

You get it in IF, you hearth to SW, and poof, you've infected two population centers in a matter of moments

Good grief, is this English? I've always avoided MMORPGs, at this point I think I'd need a translator to get started.

Re:I remember that

[mewsenews]

I love this idea if it could be worked out. My first character was a priest because I wanted to be one of the characters restoring order to the world. There were only two quests I recall that really gave the impression you were helping put things back together:

1) Priest epic staff quest -- involves healing dozens of NPCs while defending them from harm
2) First Aid artisan quest -- involves performing triage on injured NPCs

It seems like 99% of the other quests in the game involve destroying things.

Re:I remember that

[rangband]

Yea that is a pretty sweet idea, Everquest 2 had a world event like this in summer of 2005, if i remember correctly. There was a very long drawn out quest that culminated with a raid which when finished provided a permanent cure. I stayed out of the city for a week or more avoiding the plague until some punk ran by on his horse in Zek and infected me. All the stuff that wow players wish blizzard would do SOE is doing with Eq2.

Activism!

[fulgan]

Stop medical experiment on night elves!

Re:Activism!

[Y2KDragon]

Besides, medical experimentation on Gnomes is much funnier.

Yeah, but...

[thc69]

MMORPG IS a real world disease.

In real life you can't run back from the graveyard

[tangent3]

I've seen people deliberately trying to spread the disease in the game. In order to obtain the disease, you need to meet the final boss of the Zul'gurub raid instance, named Hakkar. When Hakkar infects you with the disease, you will then have to hearth back to Orgrimmar or Ironforge to spread the disease before it kills you. Would people do this in real life?

Or can we expect to see suicidal terrorists deliberately infecting themselves and moving into a population...

Re:No way....

[Oxygen99]

In weird ways they do. Check out this study from Stanford University.

Essentially it shows that concepts of personal space survive in online games, so the idea that WOW might be a useful insight into real world behaviour is valid.

Re:In real life you can't run back from the gravey

[Incoherent07]

The disease in question was rather hurriedly made impossible to spread a week or so after this happened. In other words, TWO YEARS AGO.

Re:In real life you can't run back from the gravey

[LiNKz]

Some people believe it isn't fair they contract certain diseases or viruses, and are willing to continue their lifestyle regardless of what it may cause ("It wasn't fair, so I'll just ignore it and keep going"). While this can pertain to HSV or HIV, I don't think it would be possible to relate it to this. If you were dying very quickly would you really urge to run out and infect a bunch of people? Not really.

Your 'terrorist' idea though, that is one scary idea. While I think the term has been beaten to death by Bush and the media, that would definitely cause it. Lets hope they realize in the end it would still spread to their people, too. Hopefully they have some sense of survival and self-preservation.

Re:News flash?

[Puff of Logic]

Not to mention you can have characters jump all the way across the world in seconds through World of Warcraft, I'd like to see that kind of transportation in real life. On the time-scale of a RL disease, flying from the U.S. to Europe is virtually instantaneous transmission across the world. A virulent disease that is highly communicable but has an incubation period in which there is little or no outward sign of infection would go global pretty quickly with such a fast vector as air travel.

cheers.

But honey,

[kcurtis]

I'm not just raiding. I'm helping prevent the spread of infectious diseases. Do you really want our children to die of the plague?

BBC ran this a few days ago

[Stevecrox]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/6951918.stm

The opinion seems to be while its just a video game it might provide a little insight into how people react to these situations which could be usefull for future modeling.

Hah

[SatanicPuppy]

Your idea is rejected because it's too cool. Please try again with something that would require more grinding.

Seriously, I've always wanted more stuff like this. I mean, 99% of the content never changes. Would it be too much to have more events that require significant numbers of players to actually dedicate their time to fixing the problem, pushing back the enemy, etc? Even the seasonal content in WoW is pretty static, and you don't have to participate.

Re:Hah

[Puff of Logic]

Your idea is rejected because it's too cool. Please try again with something that would require more grinding. Fair enough. Hmmm...okay, the cure will only be effective on those who have exalted status with the goblin HMO Booty Bay?

Re:No way....

[spikedvodka]

Don't Jump!!!! There are so many better options... I know a great shrink. ...

Awww Man... now I've got to call the cops, the coroner, and do you know how many forms I have to fill out?

Re:News flash?

[nahdude812]

In addition, being in the tightly enclosed space with recirculated air that is the aircraft, there's a good chance it won't be only yourself who is the vector on the other side. Hit the restroom early in the flight and increase those chances! This is probably even more effective than trying to cough on random people on the other side.

Re:In real life you can't run back from the gravey

[mikael]

In the real world, back several hundred year during the time of the Plague, the first response of villagers who encountered someone who had the plague (an infected messsenger who arrived on the edge of the village), was to gather everyone together in the market place, inform them, then send out more villagers to warn their neighbours. Depending on the mode of transport (walking, horse, cart, coach), this would enable the infection to spread (fleas on animals or clothes).

I doubt that it's that simple

[Moraelin]

I doubt that it's that simple. I can see how some of the reflex stuff, like the eye contact or distance from each other might count, so I'm not dismissing their research. But I'm saying you should know when to stop extrapolating from what they actually studied, to stuff that you just imagine _should_ work the same way.

1. Other stuff is more like built on logical decisions, and (consciously or subconsciously) min-maxing rewards vs risks within the rules of the game, not within the rules of RL. The solution picked in the game might be _very_ dissimilar to the one picked IRL.

E.g., rogues are popular in WoW because they're all-out-offense and get XP fast, and people are willing to take a few extra deaths if in the long term they level up faster. It's an option not many will take IRL. If someone told you you'll likely get a promotion faster if you run on foot across the highway daily, chances are you wouldn't take that risk. Or I don't think russian roulette is very popular a passtime IRL, as another example.

Or if you want another IRL comparison, take fencing, the original life-and-death kind. It was primarily defense oriented. The very name comes from "defence" via "defencing". The priority was defense, and harming the opponent was only left for when the oportunity presents itself. Both touching each other was _not_ an option, because then both would be dead. Then it was turned into a harmless sport based on points, and it went all aggressive instead of defensive, because that's what gets more point. Olympic fencing nowadays would look outright _absurd_ to a gentleman with a rapier from the days of yore. That's how much a behaviour can differ even when you simulate an activity IRL with RL props.

Essentially people are more willing to accept virtual "death" in a game (whether WoW or competition fencing) than IRL. That should already give you a hint that their reaction to having a deadly plague might not be exactly the same in WoW as IRL.

2. The study you linked is about Second Life, a primarily role-playing environment. I mean, it's not like there's even an actual game in there.

Role-playing is somewhat different from playing for xp, loot and honour points. Role-playing is primarily about acting, and making your character and reactions _believable_ to the other. I.e., the whole idea is to act like a RL human, or close enough. (Even if you RP a dwarf or elf or klingon, RP racial cultures are essentially just slightly exagerated human cultures and personalities.) So it makes sense that you'd pay attention to such details as whether your character would make eye contact, how close he'd stay to another guy, and that he'd react believably to the news of having a deadly plague. It's the whole point of RP, it's _expected_ that you do, and if you don't meet that expectation, you'll find less and less people want to RP with you.

In games like WoW, that assumption just doesn't exist any more. In WoW what's expected of you is that you make the most of the rules, and ignore stuff that doesn't directly impact your character's progress. What would be a realistic reaction suddenly doesn't really matter any more, unless you found yourself a group of die-hard roleplayers. Stuff that in a RP session would count as good RP (e.g., stopping to huff and pant when running uphill, or "omg, I'm gonna die" scenes when infected), here count at most of "lol, dude, you're funny" or even "yeah, yeah, cut it out with whining about realism already" if you overdo it.

And then there are some people who even make a point of acting as shocking or unconventional as possible, or even being as annoying as possible. E.g., I can assure you that in the WoW plague event a lot didn't think "omg, I'm so depressed that I'm gonna die", but quite the contrary, "bwahahaha, it's so cool that I can infect and kill non-PvP newbies." I.e., far from ruining their day as would happen IRL, it was the happiest day of their online life. Some even went and deliberately got infected just to that end.

So basically, just

Not quite the same...

[sabt-pestnu]

The MMORG A Tale In The Desert also had a disease event. Due to game mechanics, there were a few differences.
In WoW...

• The WoW disease killed. WoW has an "easy resurrection" system, so it didn't cost players more than a few minutes of inconvenience.
• The cause was immediately known, and the cure (death) while inconvenient, was also immediately known
• Detecting a carrier was easy.
• Being cured of the disease (dying) took little play time.

In ATITD...

• The disease debilitated, eventually forcing a disconnect for a period of time (a coma, as it were).
• The cause had to be discovered by the player community. And even after theories were proven, there were still some cases that could not easily be explained.
• Much like real life, carriers often didn't know they had it until signs manifested... too late for those around them
• Discovering a cure was a separate (community) event, requiring much player time and involvement. Actually getting cured took a non-trivial amount of time and resources on the part of the "sick" player. ... and the character could get reinfected a short period after taking the cure. (A permanent cure was eventually discovered, which took MORE resources...)

Also unlike WoW, ATITD is very much a social game. Introduce, then, something that produces highly negative consequences to social interaction, and you get ... a lot of people leaving a game that is no longer fun.

On the other hand, I expect the reactions by the people who didn't leave were perhaps even closer to those in the real world than in WoW, because of its social aspects.

And for those of you who haven't heard of the game before, I should point out that the nature of the game (no combat) and the social ecology tends to select for cooperative behavior. ... and long attention spans...

Ig Nobel Prize.

[SYSS Mouse]

I think someone should nominate Blizzard and the scientists for the Ig Nobel Prize.