Gartner Says Open Source "Impossible To Avoid"
alphadogg writes in with a Network World article that covers a Gartner open source conference, in which VP Mark Driver seems to be going out of his way to be provocative. "You can try to avoid open source, but it's probably easier to get out of the IT business altogether. By 2011, at least 80% of commercial software will contain significant amounts of open source code..." After this lead-in, in which open source seems to be regarded as some kind of communicable disease, the rest of the article outlines a perfectly rational plan for developing an open source strategy.
You won't hear me complaining, 80% sounds great.
It's infectious, it's growing and all attempts to stop it have failed.... sounds like a virus to me.
Well, it has never been successfully tested.
1. Say something provocative and be sure to mention open source.
2. Post on slashdot.
3. Sneak in something insightful.
4. ???????
5. Profit!!!1
Hard to avoid? I'm in the process of securing a restraining order as we speak.
"The purpose of learning is growth, and our minds, unlike our bodies, can continue growing as long as we live." - M.J. A
The article says that some say that day is already here. I agree.
Try to do -anything- on the web without having to deal with Firefox, Apache, PHP, etc, etc... Good freaking luck. Even Safari uses open source components, so there goes all compatibility with Mac as well. (Meaning you can't test it on Mac, because then you'd be dealing with open source.)
Now, try to have a successful business without the internet. Sure, it's possible on a small scale, but I can't name a single business I deal with that doesn't have at least a 'contact us' page on the internet with a phone number.
And that doesn't even get into interacting with other companies that happily use open source in their daily functioning.
"If you make people think they're thinking, they'll love you; But if you really make them think, they'll hate you." - DM
It's fairly uncommon, it attempts to manipulate anything that it touches....sounds like a virus to me.
Does 80% of companies using open source necessarily mean less profits. In my experience it means more time/cost efficient projects.
(so says the submitter in the firehose)
Sir, you appear to be confusing "open source" with "open sores." I realize they sound similar, and English spelling isn't entirely logical, but this one ends with an "S" sound, not a "Z."
It's almost like they're talking about herpes, the way you can't escape it.
Of course Open Source is a communicable disease. All freedom is. That's why they call it freedom, and that's also why those in control fear it so much.
DUH!
I fault YOU, dear comment submitter, for attaching a negative connotation to it. There's nothing wrong a viral idea, and there's nothing wrong with admitting that an idea is viral. There is something wrong with being ashamed of perfectly decent things.
What this says, in my view, is that 80% of the developers that are, um, developing will see freedom as beneficial. And in my world, that ROCKS!
security of your product and business is not possible via obscurity. This just in...
http://www.rense.com/general79/wdx1.htm
Is there some shortage of raw meat today such that this needed to be used for today's Two Minutes Of Hate? Surely Darl McBride or Steve Ballmer must have said or done *something*?
This is the Gartner Group we're talking about. The only thing that amazes me is that anyone still pays them any attention at all. I still have some presentation materials around here somewhere where they warn that 30% of US businesses will fail due to Y2K problems.
This space intentionally left blank.
I guess that depends on that GPLv3 thingy...
My opinion of Gartner is so low that I can only assume that through some miracle Open Source will be discarded as a bad idea by 2011.
--Dude, where've you been? I haven't been able to reach you for days!
--I was in the hospital with (whispers) *Linux*. They wouldn't let me get online. They were afraid I'd install it on the computer. They even found it on my cellphone.
--Man, that's harsh!
--You're telling me! At least they put me in a room with Windows.
Can you name an OS that doesn't have Open Source code in it? (over the last 30 or so years) ...
anyone? ...
Okay, one that people actually use?
Now, there may be a few users that have never used an operating system, and I can't speak for every application out there, so I'm pretty sure that you never could avoid it.
Who is afraid of open source? People who spent big money for closed source.
The same people cried when Apple dropped $200 off the iphone.
The guy who missed the sale is ALWAYS going to be pissed.
Of course, they DO get a shiny hologram of authenticity with their locked down code...
it's sticky on the back, so just affix it to your Dell and you're all set for teh interweb!
And with the money I saved on M$ orifice, I'll buy your wife dinner at Le Distro.
Anything coming from any of the Gartner clowns' mouth should be considered suspect. They are a joke.
Isn't this the same Gartner that Laura DiDio worked for and suggested that Open Source software and especially Linux had no place in the then "today's world?" I guess things have changed a lot. But what does she say now? An slashdotter wants to know.
Dear Slashdotters,
Considering this recent revelation of the future from this prophet, we here at Microsoft want a piece of the action too. We have been dodging this bullet for too long. It's time to sink our teeth in and bite it.
We have been holding secret negotiations with Torvalds and starting next year, the NT kernel will be scrapped in favor of the Linux kernel. Windows will cease to be an operating system. Instead, Microsoft will develop something to be known as "the Windows Desktop Environment", or WDE for short. WDE will have all the user-friendly features you have come to love in Microsoft Windows operating systems with the exception that everything about it will be open source.
Help us make WDE and our new distribution become a success and continue your support for Microsoft.
Your Friend in Redmond,
William Gates III
The game.
Having said that, it is indeed difficult to make software both Open Source and Commercial, since the software recipients can then freely redistribute it. There are only two true ways I can think of:
Otherwise, you're looking at selling something else to go with the software. You could sell the hardware, as Linksys does with their Linux-based routers, or sell support services, as Red Hat does. You could offer to customize the software for a fee, which would be a specialized case of selling support.
You could also sell proprietary data that goes with your OS software. For example, you might have some GPS mapping software which is OS, but you would sell the maps themselves. I also imagine that Google might be able to sell their web-searching software as open source, but you wouldn't have the same networking hardware and the accumulated data that they have.
Still other solutions include judicious use of proprietary versus open source software. ESRaymond's web site suggests that you can sell proprietary software while keeping the source in escrow to be opened in case the company fails. The author of QCAD sells the latest version as proprietary, which become open-sourced when a newer version supercedes it. Also, you can have multi-licensing deals: you have code that is licensed under the GPL, but re-license it under a proprietary license for money because someone else wants to reuse it in a proprietary work.
Oh, yeah, there's one more. You just plain sell your OS software. Some people might buy it even though it's available for free elsewhere. I remember when I bought the latest Borland C++ compiler at the local computer store for what I thought was a cheap price (this was in late 2000 when the sun was already setting on Borland). Later, I found out that it was available as a free download. But at US$30, hey, I was happy with the value for the money. Yes, I could have gotten it cheaper, but I was willing to pay $30 for it. (Not that Borland C++ is an example of Open Source software.) Also, you make money due to brand name (which is what Red Hat is famous for protecting): people might buy from you just to get the reassurance that it's The Real Thing.
So, there are ways to do it, just not the straightforward way that the MAFIAA is drooling about, which is that people pay you big bucks just to make copies of your 1's and 0's.
404555974007725459910684486621289147856453481154 in hex is "You sank my Battleship?"
[GPG key in journal]
Making an "open source strategy" is silly. No one has an "EULA" planning session where they try to make general guidelines for what kind of non free screwing they will and won't take. They consider the options available and take the best. This is a panic by non free software vendors and their pawns. The same people who used to tell you to always use the "best" tool for the job realize that the best tool is often a free one. Open Software planning sessions are a waste of time designed to heap FUD on free software. The time waste itself will put you at a competitive disadvantage, using the wrong tools will too.
It's never been rational to ignore free software. Every significant non free program has roots in some kind of free software. The people telling you to ignore free software have been plundering it themselves all along.
DMCA, Hollings, Palladium. What might have sounded like paranoia is now common sense.
The 80% comment is a form of reverse rhetoric. They are trying by themselves to build unrealistic expectations which they can then knock down to prove the failure of OSS and Linux. That's called a straw-man argument.
This is all they have to wield as a weapon against quality software that challenges the proprietary vendors and shops that pay their bills. It's official. Their efforts are now pathetic.
sigfault (core dumped)
I agree. Who doesn't want to make money from others' code. OSS is the way to go.
Shrink-wrapped commercial stuff like Word and Excel might be under threat, but there will always be jobs for people working on bespoke business projects. For example, I can't imagine an altruistic bunch of people getting together to write a special flight booking system for British Airways.
Driver has no idea what a fanatic he is. Commercial software developers have used BSD and other free software all along, yet he imagines a rational person would be afraid of such things. He then constructs this strawman:
I wonder if he had to wipe the drool off his chin when he said that.
It's never been a bad idea to consider freedom and there have always been trade offs. Businesses that ignored freedom have been yanked along with the upgrade train, suffered intentional waste and incompetent security. Now that free software has gained a large feature and performance advantage in many areas, non free proponents are abandoning the "best tool for the job" mantra and erecting FUD barriers.
Only a real zealot would think it's impossible, impractical or extreme to replace Windows. Windows itself has always been second rate. Rational people used it because it was cheap, "good enough" and there were useful applications. Many large companies have already done it and rational people now realize that Windows should only be kept around for legacy and specialized niches.
DMCA, Hollings, Palladium. What might have sounded like paranoia is now common sense.
Funny but backwards. The NT kernel actually is a good kernel. It's the rest of the stuff that needs replacing. Also I find the whole "open source" rah, rah funny in light of the Theo stories we had a day ago. Apparently open source (non-GPL code) is something to cheer about, but amoungst yourselves it's "The GPL is better than other licenses".
So the gartner said that? Interesting. What did the poolman and the postman have to say about it? :p
Carbon based humanoid in training.
Why should I get out of the IT business? I don't make my money out of selling software but by charging hourly rates to write software for clients. Open Source will only lead to more possibilities and more work.
Because software will more reliable and easier to get means that it will be used more and thus more clients will need my services.
This is actually a Good Thing (TM).
Y
Actually, I have found that the amount of open source you use and your chances of getting herpes are, strangely, inversely proportional. ;)
"Ladies and gentlemen, my killbot features Lotus Notes and a machine gun. It is the finest available."
Is there something I missed? Is open source a problem or something? I don't understand the point here.
A lot of this stems from years of vendor BS where they openly slam open source. When you buy the product and find all sorts of open source linked in, or like some, based on open source BSD. And even others that are merely web based front ends to open source engines. We techie types know which vendors are worse that others, but I know of so very few vendors today that you can't find some open source in it.
If open source was so bad, then why do the vendors slam and use it? Hint, hypocrisies and profit.
Read a EULA, essentially you have LESS rights in a commercial EULA than open source. If the company goes bankrupt, is bought out, wants to jump rates after your hooked -- with open source you have the source and are not stuck. Your alternatives are severely limited with commercial licenses.
The only real limitation in a I/T shop to open source is that is does not like the fuel called BS, hype talk, fast clickers, lies, closed minds, McSofts, those with lower skills and excuses need not apply.
Just got off the phone with commercial support, no solution and 4 hours wasted. If I had the source I would have it fixed by now. Ya, they support you. Ya, they buy lunches once and awhile. Your best support is in house competence with source and an unlimited RTU.
You beat me to that.
Web2.0: I love when people Flickr my cuil and digg my boingboing until my google is reddit and I start to yahoo
ass-emo-lated...
(captcha: airbag)
Previously: "Linux... Toward the Sunrise..." Now: "Linux... Toward the-- No, now, part of Every Sunrise"
Windows contains a significant amount of open-source code.
The entire TCP/IP stack is lifted from BSD.
This is exactly why Stallman and the other anti-business and commercial hostile FOSSie crusaders are seeking to make the GPL has restrictive as possible. Their goal is to acquire control of everyone and every thing computer related, via source code. Thus, they can completely hold a company hostage, and it won't cost them one penny to create their monopoly (aside from all the money they spend creating a more and more restrictive web of legalities in their software license).
Why else do you think Sun and IBM are gaining footholds in the Lunix community? Because they are using these groups in a proxy war against Microsoft and the rest of the software industry.
Lunix is already an excellent example of the kind of monopoly FOSSies seek to create. Due to making the GPL more and more restrictive with every revision, they have pushed commercial software off the platform and removed any kind of software choices (aside from other FOSSie applications). So using teh Lunix gives you Ford's Model-T choice: you can have any software you like, as long as it's FOSS. That doesn't sound like being "all about choice" to me.
MS was probably the first to start warning people about the viral nature of the GPL, and how it threatens the entire software industry. The people who mocked them are now looking like huge fools, and making MS look like visionaries.
At least we know what MS's agenda is: to produce high quality software in exchange for money. But what's the agenda of these FOSSies? Just listening to people like Stallman, I can't help but shudder when thinking what someone like that would do with more than the tiny bit of power they currently have. And given the completely deceptive and underhanded means they are going about creating their monopoly... I'm far less inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt.
Even Teh Lunis himself doesn't trust the GPLv3. That really has to tell you something.
(Sorry, this turns into a rant:) I wonder what percentage of readers -- 80% ? -- will not be in IT any longer by 2011, and what percentage will remember this prediction? If I'm not mistaken, Gartner is primarily a business to business research firm. If I was paying them dump trucks of money to say obvious things like this, I would question myself. I mean, by 2011 you know 80% of applications will use SAX or some open-source XML parser. Wondering if the report was bogus or not, I decided to break with tradition & read the article. These people have a grasp of the obvious: "You've got to know what's in your organization." They suggest four steps that are somewhat blindingly obvious. The first is to use software the fits the purpose. Then use mature software. (I don't have any statistics in front of me, but wouldn't Gartner also do a report saying some new technology is the best thing that ever happened?) The third factor is a buzzword, your "technology adoption profile" -- I don't know what that means, but it sounds important. Is there a UML diagram for that? The fourth factor is whether the software is 24/7 mission critical. Since earlier in the article the advice is not to throw out Windows for Linux, I can't quite harmonize them. So I'm just kind of in a daze at the vacuity of this stuff. The Gartner guy actually describes the motives of IBM for supporting Linux. (Can he back this up with research? Does he have quotes from IBM management proving that his ascribed motive is correct? Gartner is a research firm, right?) So that this stuff is being reported as "news" is mind-boggling. That this stuff is being done at all is mind-boggling. What happened to real reporting, anyway? Printing some quotes from a talk is not reporting. Why don't they ask what percentage of application development plans to use open-source components in the immediate future, or an open-source middleware and presentation layer stack? Why don't they ask why 20% would not be using open source by 2011, when the number of all-Microsoft shops that use the .NET stack (C#, SQL Server, ASP.NET) is most likely going to remain significantly higher than that. What is the definition of using open source, anyway, here? A Perl script in a unit test? Firefox and Apache? An XML parser? The quality of news reporting is getting pretty grim.
Personnaly, I welcome our waddling, flightless overlords.
Have gnu, will travel.
Windows contains BSD-licenced software. It has been in there for more than 10 years now. Mac OS X has a BSD based kernel. The rest of today's OS is mostly open source or at least uses some BSD or GNU software.
Jut try to avoid TCP/IP in any IT camp. The BSD license is very hard to avoid. 80% is way too low a number. I know of a few cars, microwave ovens and other appliances without it.
The truth shall set you free!
A significant part of my law practice is advising clients about what they need to do to comply with a bunch of open source code that has, somehow, made its way into their software.
So how many people really need to worry about this? I was under the impression that the vast majority of IT work is implementation that will never be distributed. That would make "Open Source" planning is mostly FUD.
For the few companies that do need to consider the issue, things should be much easier than what they are used to. Yes, they should understand things up front, but that should take all of five minutes.
DMCA, Hollings, Palladium. What might have sounded like paranoia is now common sense.
To me it seems that Gartner published it for similar reasons that television news media has sports news. 90%+ of sports news isn't actually news, is irrelevant the day after it was broadcast, and a lot of it is just filler before it even airs. For example, getting sound-bytes from prominent players and coaches to create a lead-up to a weekend game, ignoring that the sound-bytes are nothing more than clichés that are suspiciously similar to what interviewees said the previous week.
That said, people expect television news media to provide sports news and they like to watch it -- so much so that it'll fill up to half of a typical news bulletin. When there's nothing to say, Gartner makes it up with clichés and pointless re-stating of things that are obvious. If the sports bulletin wasn't full of something to do with sports that people are interested in, people wouldn't watch it, and eventually they might even move away from the channel. It gives people something to watch in their spare time, it stretches out the entertainment value of a game by giving them more time when they can think about it, and it helps them feel like they're up-to-date with something that's important to them... even if they really haven't been given any meaningful information.
Gartner is expected to provide commentary on things like Windows and Linux; when there's nothing to say, they make it up with clichés and pointless re-stating of things that are obvious. If Gartner's publications aren't full of something to do with topics that people are interested in, people wouldn't read them, and eventually they might even move away from Gartner. It gives managers something to read in their spare time, it stretches out the time they can say they've been considering a particular decision, and it helps them feel like they're up-to-date with parts of their job on which they have a major influence... even if they really haven't been given any meaningful information.
you do know she pees down there too, don't you?
and you lick it?
ewwwwww...
"avoid?!..." typical idiot PHB type comment.
:-)
Are you kidding me? Nothing but the best for me. Open source or nothing. Linux at all times, where M$ junk is just a bad memory. Such is the way of freedom!
Bottom line is, all of this "free" software was provided by the likes of Bell Labs, which in turn was funded on the backs of every citizen in the USA. In effect, you raised the phone of bills of everyone in the USA to get the first C compiler and Unix, so grandma that had no desire to ever have anything more than phone, wound up footing the bill for the development of an operating system. Notice that as soon as AT&T got real competition, the lavish funding for Bell Labs came to a close, so, if anything, the creation of the likes of Unix was actually a theft in its own right, and rightfully, there ought not to be a thing called the GPL, because everything that is in the GPL, rightfully belongs in the public domain!
This is my sig.
Because you're dating a tabby?
Windows users may get a lot of viruses, but I doubt herpes is one of them....
The difference is IBM has an Open Source Policy and M$ is dragged kicking and screaming to develop one.
Even so what is being discussed here is basic I.T infrastructure planning and should realistically be a non-issue. ANY CIO worth the money being paid should be asking technology staff "What ways can you identify open source can save us on our operating costs?" and improve their credibility. The bottom line is understanding the ramifications of the licence agreements (GPL) which are benign in most cases. The legal department (if there is a legal department) signs off on contracts but is rarely presented with the/a GPL. They don't understand their obligations under the GPL because they haven't read it AND no-one presents it to the legal department so it can be reviewed. This is as much a problem for technologist's who are not presenting the management with the GPL as management who buries their head in the sand and say's "I know it's there I just don't know how to deal with it". If the GPL's are presented regularly to legal teams they should be saying "Oh, this is just another GPL" and respond accordingly so that the obligations wrt that business are understood. The application of the license is as important to the business as the benefit that comes from using it. (known risk vs reward)
From working within IBM the process of creating and using GPL software AND the process that you had to go through to implement it was made very clear (which is why I always thought SCO's claims were bogus). I doubt it is much different with other market leaders like HP or Sun. In any commercial organisation implementing OSS into their IT Policy, the direction must be clear so executive, management and shareholders will understand it, not technologists. This is why Gartner is paid to say obvious stuff like this, rather than making predictions about specific technologies, so that a board can point to it and say "This is another reason why we made this decision".
This is very much a "For management" type of article, an enabler for management to allow innovation to occur. It's a technologist job to innovate, it's managements job to ensure complience with the business rules, an executives job to define rules that increase revenue and a boards job to provide direction to executives and returns to shareholders.
It's a good thing because innovations like OSS have always ushered in cycles of growth into the I.T industry, anyone still around in 2011 should be rewarded accordingly.
My ism, it's full of beliefs.
Shortly after engaging in open-source I contracted herpes. God damn it! If only I had known! I don't know who to blame now. [Remember to tick the 'Post Anon' Box]
*sniff* I must be coming down with a touch of open source.
I agree with the statement, and have said similar things to justify the whole niether open source or closed is better, but to say it is opensource is ludacris. Think you'll get support when you apply an opensource patch that has been released, will be sucked up by the money grubbing company and eventually issued, but they haven't "fully" tested yet? Granted, companies are getting quicker to release, but it doesn't change the fact.
Once it goes closed source, you have no quality control open to the public to see what changes they've made. It may be a Picasso when they get it, but it could end up mangled into a genital wart by the time it is released to the public.