Will China Beat the United States Back to the Moon?

MarkWhittington writes "During an address on the space economy to coincide with the fiftieth anniversary of the start of the space age, NASA Administrator Michael Griffin made the assertion that China would beat the United States back to the Moon. 'Americans will not like it, but they will just have to not like it. I think we will see, as we have seen with China's introductory manned space flights so far, we will see again that nations look up to other nations that appear to be at the top of the technical pyramid, and they want to do deals with those nations. It's one of the things that made us the world's greatest economic power. So I think we'll be reinstructed in that lesson in the coming years and I hope that Americans will take that instruction positively and react to it by investing in those things that are the leading edge of what's possible."'"

Comments

Does it really matter?

[Anonymous Coward]

Cold War ended twenty years ago did it not?

Re:Does it really matter?

[Tango42]

Yes, but the standard definition of "terrorist" isn't "one who terrorises". What China does is called "human rights violations", not "terrorism". The key difference is that China is a sovereign state - doesn't make much difference to the people being abused, but it makes a difference to how you deal with it.

Re:Does it really matter?

[Seumas]

And now it's with China.

China has shown a great deal of ill-will toward other nations, including America, as well as China's own people. Despite this, we happily build KFCs and Walmart's in their country and contract work and outsource jobs to them for pennies on the dollar. They are coming into their own in the global capitalist market, but without the included democracy of most other nations. This gives them the added benefit of have mass amounts of money and a lot of nimbleness. They don't have to deal with the red tape we do when they want to shift directions or enforce changes to industry.

We blew our wad last century. Our infrastructures are built and in place and done with. China is just now getting started and will have the benefit of building theirs with a new economy and the technology of the 21st century, instead of the 20th. In our lifetime, they'll probably become the real super-power; trumping the US.

Would not be bad if it comes to pass.

[140Mandak262Jamuna]

I don't know if China would really beat us in the back to the moon race, but if it does, it would have a very positive impact on America. After the end of cold war, America has become somewhat lethargic. If this serves to unify behind some kind of scientific goal, it would really be great.

The US is like the Microsoft of the world

[mind21_98]

Mostly only innovating when they're threatened... (see: US manned space program after the Soviets sent someone into Earth orbit)

...and bullying everyone else in the meantime.

Who Cares?

[moehoward]

We got first post! I mean on the moon, not Slashdot.

We went there and there was nothing there. Just pride and Cold War points. Me? Loved it. Still recall watching the launches and Apollo 13 as a youngster. I was so into it as a 6-10 year-old. Definitely made a huge impact on the direction of my life.

While we Slashdotters often mock "If they can put a man on the moon...", there really is something to that. Look at the technology at that time. Look at the mission and the time frame. Amazing stuff. The politicians (mostly) kept their noses out. Even more amazing...

I don't want us to go back on tax bucks. I don't want another stupid political race, this time with China. I want the private sector to make money in space. We went there for the glory, let's go back for cash. I honestly mean it. If there is a return to be made, let's have the private sector do it, and let's give incentives for that.

What a load of crap

[Anonymous Coward]

What, is the moon race a "do over"?

We go there in 1969, period, dot.

China beating us back is a false challenge. It would be like if the Soviet Union had landed a man on the moon in September of 1969 and claimed it "beat us back" to the moon because they got there before Apollo 12.

Big Deal

[skam240]

The question we all need to ask is why do we even need to go back? We're not building moon bases anytime in the near future and extracting resources is way to expensive for the foreseeable future.

Some one please tell me what possible reason we would have for even wanting to waste billions of dollars on another trip to the moon for. It's a big floating rock.

...back to the moon?

[Smight]

Doesn't China have to get to the moon on seven different occasions if they want to beat the US back?

Re:Big Deal or two

[wmorrow]

Just one? Pick your favorite:
* astronomy unfettered by an atmosphere and complexities of zero-G environment
* unlimited vacuum and little concern for pollution for industrial processes
* lots of sunshine for power generation
* tourism

There's longer term, and more altruistic goals as well, like getting our eggs out of one basket.

I'm imagining you looking out at the ocean from the beach, and saying "why go sailing? There's water in my bathtub."

Re:What will the Chinese find on the moon? Rocks.

[RodgerDodger]

Except you need to think about the military situation. However controls the moon will control the space around Earth. Without control of space, and near-Earth-orbit, much of the US's military might just vanishes.
Goodbye GPS. Goodbye launch-detection-systems. Goodbye spy satellites.

There's also a lot you can do with rocks. For starters you can throw them. Go read some Heinlein.

Conclusion not consistent with the facts

[amightywind]

This Griffin surely and funding ploy for NASA. The facts suggest China's program is grossly overrated.

• China has never developed a spacecraft from scratch. They modified a Soyuz.
• Thay have never developed anything larger than a 10ton launcher, the Long March, which is also similar to a Soyuz They will need a rocket 10x as large to land on the moon.
• They have launched two times since 2003. Their next mission is not planned until fall 2008. Between 1963 and 1968 America developed Apollo and flew around the moon
• They are way behind Japan which has just launched an ambitious moon mission, Selene.
• The US has a highly credible architecture for moon missions in Ares I & V and Orion. The vehicles are being built of existing parts.
• The US has the experience developing,launching, and assembling the 1,000,000lb ISS
• The US has >10x China's space budget for the foreseeable future

Based on the facts how can you conclude that China will get there first? Indeed, it is not clear that they will beat Japan as the leader in Asian spaceflight.

Re:Conclusion not consistent with the facts

[Comatose51]

You're wrong on two accounts. Long March is indigenously developed. Also, the US having a space budget with more dollars doesn't translate into 10x the resources. You have to consider price parity. What I mean is that China doesn't pay dollar to its workers and things are cheaper over there. If you only use the exchange rate to compare the budgets you won't get a fair comparison. You have to find the relative cost of products in each country, which is how price parity came about. Once you take that into account the difference is not nearly as great as you think.

More importantly, I don't know why people bother posting things like that. It doesn't nothing but soothe our pride. Either we make it our goal to return to the moon before the Chinese or just shrug it off and say we've already done it in the 60s. If we're are going to go to return, then let's take the Chinese seriously and put some real effort into it. The worst thing for us to do is to put in a half ass effort and waste resources.