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The Latest From the Front in the Console Wars
The October NPD numbers are out, and (now that we know we'll keep getting the information) it's time once again for analysis and reaction from media and businesses alike. GameDaily has a one year later look at the fight that began last holiday season. As for the numbers themselves, with Halo 3 now a known quantity in the market the 360 is down to 366,000 from 527,800 in September. Microsoft is still quite happy with software sales, though. The PS3 only saw 121,000 units sold last month, but early news from November has Sony very excited. And all the while, somehow, the Wii manages to sell even more units. The system is up to 519,000 from 501,000 in September, with the DS slight down to 458,000 from 495,800. As the GameDaily analysis article concludes: "the race for console dominance is still anyone's to win. The 2007 holiday buying season will be crucial to setting all three players' market positions going into next year. Which is all nice to know, of course, but not that important to actually enjoying your system of choice well into the future."
Maybe. I tend to agree, but the article had a couple good points. if Wii owners don't keep buying games, did Nintendo really win? Also, Final Fantasy is likely to sell a lot of Playstations. Many FF fans are in the same category of rabid loyalty as Halo fans, and they'll shell out the green just to play the next one.
I got a hold of a Wii from a friend for "long-term" borrowing pretty early on after launch and kept it for about 5 months. Initially I had a ton of fun playing Wii Sports just about every night, I even rented games like Red Steel and Wario etc to try out the software for the system. I was unimpressed in general with the types of games they were putting out on the system, just like when I owned a Gamecube and only loved Rogue Squadron and Eternal Darkness for it. Not being a huge modern metroid game fan, and finding that I was unimpressed with Zelda on the Wii, I eventually passed the console back to my friend and went back to playing my 360 / PC.
I guess it all boils down to the type of software made for a particular system, but the article's analysis of software attach rate was interesting in that the Wii's is so low. I do continue to buy games for my 360 even 2 years later (Gears of War, PGR 4, Halo 3, Bioshock, Mass Effect, AC etc) yet nothing but Mario would interest me on the Wii right now. Many of my friends have the same opinions and the initial fad of playing Wii sports has worn off. Plus, its pretty bad that the most popular game on your system is the one you give away for free with the system (yes, everyone has it so they likely try it, but still, in my experience it was by far the most fun to be had on the Wii at least through when I gave the console back to my friend).
"To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield." - Tennyson
Yes, Nintendo won even if people stop buying games for it. It's the third party developers that get screwed at that point. That being said I don't think that will be the case though. The Wii is in an adjustment period. The DS went through the same thing. Developers are still trying to adapt to the system and find out what does and does not work with it. When the DS first came out the only decent games were for the most part created by Nintendo with most of the third party games being mediocre. The Wii is going through the same thing now. Almost all the good games are by Nintendo with the third party items (for the most part) being decidedly mediocre. With luck however the developers will pull through and we'll start to see games from third parties soon every bit as polished and fun as Nintendo's own offerings.
Curiosity was framed, Ignorance killed the cat.
Yes, actually. Because Nintendo made a profit on the Wii from Day #1. As other console manufacturers optimize their manufacturing costs to produce their consoles at a lower loss (or simply reduce the street price and take the same loss), Nintendo's profit margins simply grow as they optimize their processes. Thus Nintendo "wins" regardless.
The real question is, what happens to the game producers? The argument exists that if the Wii wins, all we'll end up with is Mario and Wii Sports. To which I think it's important to turn around that argument and look at it from another angle. Nintendo currently has about 14 million consoles out there, and a shipped Wii is effectively a sold Wii. Thus the Wii presents a tremendous opportunity to game producers.
This huge market payed $250 for Wii Sports. As a game producer, it then becomes your job to understand that market and produce more content for it. More to the point, it becomes the job of game producers to produce content that the market wants. Wii players are less likely to want Assassin's Creed or Call of Duty 4. (Oh look, another military FPS! Who would have thought?) So stop trying to sell them the same games you've been selling teenage boys, and start doing some market research. Make games that are compelling to the casual market, and you will win.
The best part? You don't even have to spend tens of millions on the game! A sizable sum of Wii players are attracted to casual games, which have far, far lower budgets than the so-called "triple-A" titles. Perhaps this generation could even see the downloadable game surpassing the sales of the traditional shrink-wrapped game. (If Nintendo ever gets off their butts and offers WiiWare games, that is.
Javascript + Nintendo DSi = DSiCade
You've got it backwards. The majority of the Wii target audience aren't gamers, the proper question is "Why would they start buying games"?
The "big games" are still all aimed at the PS3 and the 360 because that's where the gamers will end up. The Wii could end up moving the most hardware, but end up selling fewer games than the PS3 or the 360. That's the danger of selling your console to a very, very casual set of gamers who might never feel the need to buy another game for their console after they've found one they enjoy diddling with.
Fanatically anti-fanatical
What's more, Nintendo has increased Wii production to currently 1.8 million per month.
That's 21.6 million per year, or over 100 million in just 5 years. If they keep this up, they might even catch up with the PS2!
I think the biggest winner in this console war is IBM. They make the chips for all three consoles. With the pretty competitive market they are selling a lot of CPU, and getting handed a lot of research dollars for die shrinks. I also think this market which is a win for IBM and a loss for attach rate.
"Sometimes it's hard to tell the dancer from the dance." --Corwin Of Amber in CoC
"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy."
It's Ironic that Nintendo captured the casual market and yet there are very few games for them, they either fall under the "core-gamer category" (RE4, Metroid3, etc...) or the "Shovelware" (Too many to mention actually) category. I own a Wii with something like 15 Wii games, and 2 dozen VC games. I love it, and play it often. My parents enjoyed WiiSports so much they wanted one of their own for when they have company over. They are as "non-gamer" as can be, but are not opposed to buying games anymore as long as they appeal to them. To date they only have 3 games (WiiSports, WiiPlay, and Tiger Woods 08) and 1 VC game (PacMan). Occasionally I bring over Rayman RR, or Excitetruck and we play them a little, but that's it. They are both retired, have time and money available to them, but there is simply not a selection of games they find appealing.
Nintendo is moving units to casual gamers, but they (and 3rd parties) need to recognize this largely untapped market and deliver some games they want to buy! Guitar Hero Helps, so does DDR, and Karaoke games, but what about SuDoKu, or NY Times Crossword puzzles...