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Torvalds on Where Linux is Headed in 2008

Stony Stevenson writes "In an interview at the ITNews site, Linus Torvalds lays out his current excitement about the future of Linux. Torvalds is looking forward to hardware elements like solid-state drives, expects progress in graphics and wireless networking, and says the operating system is strong in virtualisation despite his personal lack of interest in the area. 'When you buy an OS from Microsoft, not only you can't fix it, but it has had years of being skewed by one single entity's sense of the market. It doesn't matter how competent Microsoft — or any individual company — is, it's going to reflect that fact. In contrast, look at where Linux is used. Everything from cellphones and other small embedded computers that people wouldn't even think of as computers, to the bulk of the biggest machines on the supercomputer Top-500 list. That is flexibility.'"

32 of 305 comments (clear)

  1. Desktop Linux by David+Off · · Score: 5, Funny

    So 2008 is finally the year of Linux on the desktop?

    1. Re:Desktop Linux by Colin+Smith · · Score: 5, Insightful

      No. The desktop is dead. It's the year of Linux in your pocket.

      --
      Deleted
    2. Re:Desktop Linux by Virgil+Tibbs · · Score: 3, Insightful

      See openmoko for details. On a free software mobile platform

      --
      www.tdobson.net #### Dare to Dream #### blog.tdobson.net
    3. Re:Desktop Linux by Bert64 · · Score: 5, Informative

      Not strictly true...
      The same Linux kernel, admittedly often configured in different ways and with different userland apps, runs on all these devices...
      The mobile versions of windows are completely different, and have very little in common with the desktop and server versions.
      I have a Nokia N800, which runs an embedded linux, i can compile all the same programs i use on my desktop linux machines. Even if you have the source, it's not easy to just recompile a windows program to run on windows mobile, and most programs dont come with source anyway.

      As for supercomputers, windows is pretty laughable in this area, it's only used in fairly low end clusters and is horribly inefficient (all your cluster nodes need a videocard and local hd?), most of the serious supercomputers are running linux these days. As for performance, last time i saw a windows cluster in the top500 it consisted of 660 2.8ghz dual cpu dell poweredge servers, a machine using 600 dual cpu 2.8ghz poweredge servers of the same model and running linux was 50 places higher.

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    4. Re:Desktop Linux by scmartindale · · Score: 3, Interesting

      It's entirely possible that 2008 *will* be the year of the Linux desktop. Here's why: 1. KDE 4.0. 2. Resolution (hopefully) of the ongoing Open XML vs. ODF debate will (hopefully, again) lend some might to the OpenOffice.org front, thus removing the last remaining hurdle in the Linux-in-the-office track. 3. Ubuntu 8.4 *will* be influential. It will either sink the distro or cement its position as the most usable Linux distro - ever. 4. Windows Vista will continue to hurt Microsoft by annoying big corporates. Phasing out XP will do untold damage.

    5. Re:Desktop Linux by arevos · · Score: 5, Informative

      What is this contrast he speaks of? Last time I checked, Windows was used in all these areas too... Out of the 500 top supercomputers, 6 use Windows, and 426 use Linux. Windows doesn't even show up in the top 100.

      I haven't been able to find information on the smallest Windows CE system, but Linux has been stuffed on a wristwatch with only 19MHz of CPU power and 8M of RAM.

      So I guess Linus' point is that Linux runs a greater range of systems, from the top supercomputers in the world (the top ten all run Linux), to the very smallest of devices. Windows doesn't scale quite as well.

    6. Re:Desktop Linux by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Probably not. BUT, it's not because Linux isn't ready.

      I've been waiting for over 10 years for this moment but I've finally been able to use Linux not just as a techo curiousity and plaything, but on my primary work and home machines. I can print with whatever I want, I can run just about any hardware, I can play any video or DVD, I can listen to any music, I have a decent Office competitor (The only thing I miss is a good Outlook clone - whatever you think otherwise, Outlook and Exchange is highly compelling over any other options), I have a good GUI to use to config if I want and this is with the roughest of the Ubuntus - Kubuntu. With the official Ubuntu with Gnome, everything just plain works, even on brand new hardware, Kubuntu is a bit odd in that it does throw a few odd things at you. Which is more than I can say for Windows, what with Vista's issues that make it difficult to stomach using and XP getting long in the tooth in that it doesn't support a lot of the new hardware unless you dump a whole load of drivers on it and get configuring. Samba even gives me a few options Windws doesnt, so I can conenct to different networks a few different ways that have made life easier. Wireless? Well yes, no problems at all, much to my surprise. Again that's easier in Linux that Windows. Anti vrus and anti spyware? No need. Firewall? Hey, there's a fuckign good one built right in. Security? Easier to manage. Updates? Well I upgraded from 7.04 to 7.10 online and it just plain damn worked, something Windows just could not do.

      Because I dont play games, I have good and sometimes superior options to any Windows apps I was using, except for noted Outlook clone. Minor quibble tho to me and I'm sure someone will present a good outlook replacement that interfaces to Exchange not long after I press post.

      Ubuntu is genuinely a better OS than any Windows now, which is a wonderful thing for us all. I suspect it's gaining traction too with the fuckup Vista is and frankly it's easier on my stress levels, plus morally I have no excuse for wanting anything illegal with Linux because it's all free for you if you want. That's actually a big point in it's favour.

      But Windows has too much of a stranglehold on the desktop so no, it's not the Year Of Linux On The Desktop. Be that as it may however, it's finally better and highly usable even by a complete n00b. That's no longer some sort of anecdote, it's there for all to see and you can if you want escape Microsoft completely right now. Oh and if I do have an issue I fond the solution faster now.

      I've been an interested follower of Linux since Red Hat 3, I'm stoked it's gotten this far and is now this good that it's my preferred OS. I doubt there will be a big cut over in the years to come, but hey fuck it. I'm personally glad Microsoft is completely gone for me.

      (The only issue I'm having is that Youtube every now and then locks Firefox, which I suspect has something to do with the Flash plugin. Doesn't happen anywhere else so I can only think it's something that Youtube is doing. And posted like a true coward so I cant be accused as a Karma whore :) )

    7. Re:Desktop Linux by totally+bogus+dude · · Score: 3, Informative

      Task Manager reports anything which is backed on disc as page file usage. This means any program you run contributes, because the executable and DLLs are already on disc, and Windows treats them as if they're part of the paging file (i.e. it can drop the program or library from memory if need be, because it knows it's still on disc).

      You can prove this by disabling paging altogether, and then amuse yourself by looking at how much of the "page file" is in use.

      Also, Windows does aggressively page stuff out, which in theory should boost performance by making more memory available for useful things like disc caches, but in practice does annoy me a bit as well.

    8. Re:Desktop Linux by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      It's the year of Linux in your pocket.

      No, really, I'm just happy to see you.
    9. Re:Desktop Linux by hummassa · · Score: 3, Informative

      I can virtually see him now with his black cape, sleep-deprived eyes and a sinister grin, pointing at Bill Gates and screaming: "KILL HIM, MY ROBOTS!!" Cue to cell phone ringing (Nokia Tune ring), suspense music stops, killer robots halt mid-attack, the screen splits in half, Tove (karate-champion Linus' wife) at the phone in the other half: "Dear, would you please bring some whole milk home after you're done conquering the world? I want to make you some victory chocolate cake." Linus: "Ok, honey, luv-u." Mayhem restarts, killer robots resume attacks.
      --
      It's better to be the foot on the boot than the face on the pavement. ~~ tkx Kadin2048
    10. Re:Desktop Linux by jonadab · · Score: 5, Funny

      > Outlook and Exchange is highly compelling over any other options

      *Are* there other options? Off the top of my head, I don't even know of any other enterprise-class fully automated virus retrieval and installation systems.

      --
      Cut that out, or I will ship you to Norilsk in a box.
    11. Re:Desktop Linux by TeknoHog · · Score: 3, Funny

      It's the year of Linux in your pocket.

      No, really, I'm just happy to see you.

      As shown by a related post: "It grows every year."

      --
      Escher was the first MC and Giger invented the HR department.
    12. Re:Desktop Linux by SnowZero · · Score: 4, Informative

      In constrast, in Unix, you load the whole binary in memory... Not true; Many versions of Unix and compatible OS's such as Linux support demand paging. This is a very old design trick, so its not surprising that *nix and Windows both do it. The reason you can still delete running programs in *nix is that it supports deleting open files, which are kept around until the last process closes them.
    13. Re:Desktop Linux by dpilot · · Score: 3, Informative

      Does Windows have the equivalent of an inode?

      At the risk of being pedantic, files are really anchored to inodes, and that's why you can delete or copy over an in-use file. Opening the file returns the inode to the opening process. From that point, you can "replace" or "delete" the file by pointing its directory entry to a new file/inode, or deleting the directory entry. But the filesystem code keeps track of the fact that someone is still using the inode, and doesn't let its space be reclaimed until it's unused.

      OTOH, this introduces a new risk, especially where people brag about their uptimes. Let's boot our machine in January, and start all of its services after it's booted. Pretend for argument that one of those services is OpenSSH, and for instance it uses libwrap.so. Now let's have a fiasco like we did about 10 years ago, where someone put a compromised tcp-wrappers out there, and assume that this machine was installed during that timeframe. (I know that would be tough, because the evil tcp-wrappers was discovered and corrected within a few days, maybe even 1.) At this point sshd has attached the bogus libwrap.so to it's process. Now let's discover the evil tcp-wrappers and replace it with a good copy. At this point, we now have a good libwrap installed. All is well, right?

      Wrong. At this point, any new code that starts will get the good libwrap. But any code that has been running since before the update is still pointing to the now-anonymous inode that contains the evil libwrap.

      In order to propagate a library fix, services that depend on that fix need to be restarted.

      --
      The living have better things to do than to continue hating the dead.
  2. Quick Summary by XMode · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Not really much to the interview.. It can be summed up with 1 Q&A

    Interviewer: Where is Linux going.
    Linus: Its going where it wants to.

  3. Games, and the next generation. by Thanshin · · Score: 5, Insightful

    If games made for Windows worked 1% faster in Linux, we'd have a generation of kids who would only know windows as the OS used in businesses.

    The day I see in a game forum "Use Linux, n00b." as the usual reply to "OMG! Low fps! Getting pwned! HALP!" will set the ten year count to Linux victory over Windows.

    1. Re:Games, and the next generation. by soliptic · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You seem to place excessive faith in PC gaming. Just because it's important to you, doesn't mean it dominates the computer-using population as a whole. For starters, you've got people like me - not immune to the odd blast of UT a couple of times a year, but haven't installed any games since then. For seconds, you've got a lot of people who do their gaming on a separate device (ie. console(s)).

      Basically, Linux could be the undisputed ultimate gamers platform, but I don't see why that would translate to "Linux victory over Windows" unless you have a significantly inflated sense of the importance / population % of gamers.

  4. Let's examine his earlier claims by bogaboga · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Can someone summarize Linus' earlier claims on Linux? He must have been asked where he saw Linux in 2005, 2006 and 2007. While there must be some "right on" predictions, I am sure there are some predictions that could be seen as way off course. I slashdotter is eager to know.

  5. Re:Desperate sounding.. by Bert64 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Linux wireless support is often better than windows (packet injection, rfmon sniffing etc)... You just need to shop around and buy decent cards if you want the best performance.
    All the cards I use are Atheros based, and work perfectly with Linux... I used to use Prism2 (802.11b only) based cards which also worked well.
    I've also found Intel's cards work very well.

    If you run some rare type of wireless card you may find that the windows drivers aren't too great for it either, and might stop receiving any updates rather quickly. You're also more likely to have other issues, like drivers breaking when you update windows (how many older types of card don't work at all with vista? and how many of these are no longer supported by their manufacturers and so will never work?).
    And don't get me started on manufacturers who sell the same model of card with different chipsets, that's wholly irresponsible. They should change the model number if they change the core chipset, as it effectively becomes a whole different card.

    --
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  6. Re:I thought Linus was just an engineer...? by urbanradar · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I thought Linus was just an engineer and didn't care much about the politics or market share of Linux... just in writing goog code; and preferring GPL2 to GPL3? So why should we care to read his views on topics that do not interest him? The EEE PC from Asus shows the extents to which vested interests will go in ensuring drivers for display, ACPI, wifi etc. will be DRM-ridden binaries... and Linus hasn't had much to say about these things. Maybe if he cared about the future of Linux so much, he would try and make as much of it GPL3 as he could?
    A good engineer may not care about market share or politics, but who said a good engineer doesn't care about the quality, flexibility and real-world usage of something he's spent more than a decade working on? And which engineer in his right mind wouldn't be happy and proud of his life's work being a huge success?

    This is not about politics, and this story has absolutely nothing to do with licensing, so let's not drag that dead horse up again. Sure, it's a valid debate, but there's a place and time for it, and this isn't it.
  7. 2008 will be the year of cheap laptops by eulernet · · Score: 5, Insightful

    2008 is seeing the birth of laptop computers below $300: XO, Asus EEE, and I guess some new will appear soon.

    Vista alone is almost more expensive than the hardware !

    Microsoft was a good alternative when computers did cost $1500, but now the price is just too heavy.
    But they really can't win when the hardware is cheap.

    If they keep remaining in the high performance market (which seems their belief, see DirectX 10), they'll lose their market share in 2 years, along with Dell !

  8. Re:Desperate sounding.. by iserlohn · · Score: 4, Informative

    There is a new 80211 stack in Linux with better structure that allows easier creation of device drivers. This makes it easier for manufactures to create drivers, like the one who designed your card. For those manufacturers that do not bother, like the one who made your card, it also makes it a tiny bit easier for enthusiasts to step in.

    I hope that makes it clear for you.

  9. I misread SSD..... by tomknight · · Score: 4, Funny

    I misread "One of the things I personally am really interested in is the move over to SSD" as "to BSD " and nearly lost my coffee all over my laptop....

    --
    Oh arse
  10. Re:I thought Linus was just an engineer...? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

    Now go an an remove your foot from your mouth and say sorry to Asus. Just because a couple of idiots with no patience or language skills outside of english ignorantly inform everyone a mainly chinese speaking Taiwan based company hasnt posted the source doesnt make it true.
    If you were reading first and insulting people later, you would know, that the 1.8GB zip archive does not contain sources for modules in question. But the knee-jerk reaction is much more easier, right?
  11. Re:I thought Linus was just an engineer...? by superwiz · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Well, maybe once you get old enough you realize that the test of any theory is practice. And maybe Linus is old enough to realize that the test of how useful Linux happens to be is how it is used.

    --
    Any guest worker system is indistinguishable from indentured servitude.
  12. Also, when you buy an OS from Microsoft by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    ...it comes as a business platform, not an operating system. The difference is: the OS has to do its job flawlessly in the best possible way in order to minimize the amount of work (read: time, money) required, while the business platform is something that resembles an OS but also comes with a load of business services built around it in order to generate a flow of money.
    The problem with the business platform is that it was built for the sole purpose of selling services, therefore when it eventually works and there's less demand for services (data recovery, repairs, etc.) it must be tagged as obsolete and replaced by something newer and shinier but still defective in order to generate again a strong demand for services.

    This is the exact reason why Microsoft stopped developing XP the moment it started being a decent OS, pushing instead the adoption of that Vista crap, and also explains why anybody who cares for his/her data or systems should consider Linux, BSD and other operating systems built to work with no strings attached.

  13. Re:2008 : Year of the Death of Linux by ThreeGigs · · Score: 5, Insightful

    but I didn't see any momentum at any place
    I take it you don't shop at Wal-Mart?

    I didn't see anyone in my office switched to Linux.. or any of my clients.
    And you probably won't, as most office PCs fall under the jurisdiction of IT overlords who dislike users replacing OSes.

    Sure.. they have nothing else to do other than wrestling with Linux.
    I'll take that as sarcasm, and agree with you. The biggest stumbling block to widespread Linux adoption on the desktop is that it usually does take some 'wrestling' to get it to work, whereas Windows generally 'just works'. Yet that's not a fault of Linux, it's a fault of hardware makers who decide to release a driver for Windows and NOT for Linux.

    I was going to mention the lack of GUI tools for some tasks, requiring users to manualy edit init files, but then I remembered how many times I've had to open regedit and manually change registry entries. In that sense I've had to wrestle with Windows as much as Linux.

    See.. how many distros ??
    Actually, a good point. There are a significant fraction of Windows users who don't know which version they're running, and in order to support them you need to know that. Same with the various distros, as they all are different enough so that you need to know which you're dealing with. I was recently at an acquaintance's house and saw their computer. "Hey, you run Linux" I said.... "No, it's Ubuntu" they said. They could have just as easily said "No, it's KDE". Sadly, as much as most /. readers are pro-standards, the lack of a 'hard' standard, or small set of standard configurations is a hindrance to more widespread *desktop* adoption.

    how many kernal updates every week ???
    Less than the number of Patch Tuesdays in a month, apparently.

    Linux sure got some momentum on academia. Well... to be frank.. its not because they really like. Only because they want to escapre from paying volume-licenses.
    Actually, it *is* because 'they like'. $300 is nothing when you've got research grants in the million$. Academia likes it because they can whittle away and tweak Linux until it does *only* what they need it to do, and do it efficiently and fast. Faster than Windows. And when you only need half the computers to get the same speed, or can get twice the speed with what you've got, you use Linux.

    But if you really want to argue cost, then don't forget the electricity bill. The $300 spent on a license costs more when you need to buy and power more computers to get the same results in the same time.

    Furthremore, there are linux idiots who worship linux OS, who monopolize linux-OS in their domain.
    There are Apple fanboys too. And yes, sometimes Windows actually *is* a better choice, although thankfully those special cases are becoming fewer and fewer as time goes on.

    Linux community should give up their efforts and must try to learn some lessons from M$ and either help Windows to be better OR do something like Windows for FREE.
    I think they *did* learn some lessons... lessons in what NOT to do. In fact, looking at Vista, I think MS has a few lessons that *they* need to learn from the Linux community.

    As for 'doing something like Windows....for free', isn't that *exactly* what Linux is?

    Afterall.. true power of linux can not be executed without being a linux-geek.. who knows all the command line commands and some degree of linux kernal modding... that's pathetic.
    And the true power of Windows can not be executed... FULL STOP. Can't streamline the kernel, must know all the registry tweaks which may or may not be published anywhere. THAT is pathetic.

  14. Re:What about users? by SerpentMage · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I am running VMWare 5.5. I tried to get it running on the latest Ubuntu distro, and the one before that. What happens is that it asks if I have a compiler handy in install.pl file. Then when it attempts to compile and one of the headers buggers up.

    The problem is as follows:

    http://www.debuntu.org/how-to-vmware-server-workstation-under-ubuntu-feisty

    I tried using the prepared binary patches with Ubuntu, but they did not seem to work for me. The only thing that worked was to go back to an old Ubuntu version and then be done with it. AND not upgrade the Linux kernel.

    I am tired of this. I am tired of needing a compiler installed. Tired of doing an installation of an installation. I just want it to be installed and running.

    Now talking about getting VMWare to run on some random Linux distro. Actually I can expect that. I can install VMWare workstation on Windows XP, Windows 2000, and Windows Vista, Windows 2000 Server, and Windows 2003 server without any hassles whatsoever! I can't say that of Linux.

    --

    "You can't make a race horse of a pig"
    "No," said Samuel, "but you can make very fast pig"
  15. WTB new PR headline by petrus4 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    'When you buy an OS from Microsoft, not only you can't fix it, but it has had years of being skewed by one single entity's sense of the market. It doesn't matter how competent Microsoft -- or any individual company -- is, it's going to reflect that fact. In contrast, look at where Linux is used. Everything from cellphones and other small embedded computers that people wouldn't even think of as computers, to the bulk of the biggest machines on the supercomputer Top-500 list. That is flexibility.'

    The above has been in use since 1999. It needs to be retired. "We're not Microsoft," alone isn't going to cut it for much longer. If Linux advocates keep trying to use that line to the exclusion of all else, they'll eventually find that it isn't Microsoft they'll be competing with...it's Apple. That is one battle that they can't hope to win. OSX is both UNIX based, and with close-to-mainstream user friendliness. Next to that, people have no incentive to use Linux at all.

  16. SSD vs. RAM by Skapare · · Score: 3, Interesting

    One thing I find my computer quite often busy doing is swapping. With only 512MB of RAM, and many bloated programs running, it can't hold everything in RAM all at once. But worse, I find, is when a program is doing a lot of I/O output, which gets buffered in RAM more than it should. If the data being copied is a 40GB HD video file, the assumption that I might be reading the file back in soon (so it should be cached in RAM) just doesn't cut it. An SSD dedicated just for swapping might be faster (eliminates the seeks, but still uses I/O bus bandwidth). And it won't prevent existing pages from being swapped out, requiring them to be swapped back in again (usually a lot sooner than I would be reading those large files back in, which obviously cannot be read in whole).

    But is SSD the answer for this (swapping)? If it were significantly cheaper than regular RAM, I might think so. For other uses (live copies of /usr, and such) it certainly could help. What I think is the answer for my case is to go overboard on RAM. My current estimate of normal RAM usage I need for my next computer build (in progress ... 1/3 of the parts already purchased) is 2GB. But what I plan to do in this case, however, is go with 8GB of RAM ... and not enable any swap space at all. Normally, the amount of swap space I would allocate is the lesser of 1: 2x the RAM ... and 2: the amount of data that can be transferred in one direction in 30 seconds. I'm switching to SATA so the latter figure will be larger. Still, the 8GB figure well exceeds the 2GB I expect to need for a while.

    Suppose with that 2GB of RAM I deploy 6GB of swap space. That gives me a total of 8GB of space for dirty pages (not counting I/O output buffers which have a destination elsewhere). But during the course of normal use, dirty pages often get forced out to swap because of things like I/O output buffering, which also in turn slows down that I/O (more so if it's in the same disk as the swap space, due to head seek times). Now compare that to 8GB of RAM with no swap space at all. The capacity for keeping dirty pages is the same. But when heavy I/O starts to get pushy, there's no where else for those dirty pages to go (to make room to needlessly overbuffer the I/O). The end result should simply be that the I/O can do nothing more than be written where it belongs as fast as it can (and it can be faster since swapping isn't using up any I/O bus bandwidth nor tying up the disk heads into other locations in the case of non-SSD).

    So what else is SSD good for? Maybe for /usr if the price is right. But if SSD is just RAM, bottled up through a SATA/SCSI/IDE/etc, how is that any better than RAM? Is 16GB (high end of what /usr needs for nearly everyone) of SSD cheaper than 16GB of RAM by enough to make it worthwhile? I suspect not, unless the SSD is just using cheap RAM.

    --
    now we need to go OSS in diesel cars
  17. Re:What about users? by jsoderba · · Score: 3, Informative

    I can install VMWare workstation on Windows XP, Windows 2000, and Windows Vista, Windows 2000 Server, and Windows 2003 server without any hassles whatsoever! I can't say that of Linux.

    You can run VMware on RHEL 3, 4 and 5 without any hassle whatsoever. If you want to use proprietary software, use a stable platform like RHEL or SLES or Ubuntu LTS. The reason Ubuntu and Fedora are able to release frequently is that they do not put much effort into binary compatibility.

    What you don't seem to understand is that there is no such thing as a "Linux" desktop. There are Fedora desktops and Mandriva desktops and Debian deskstops and they are all different.

  18. Re:What about users? by jedidiah · · Score: 3, Insightful

    > I am tired of this. I am tired of needing a compiler installed. Tired of doing an installation
    > of an installation. I just want it to be installed and running.

    What's to be tired of? It's Ubuntu/Debian. There's a meta package for this. Just install the meta package.

    If vmware weren't more lame, they could do this as part of their installer.

    This is strictly a packaging and engineering issue. Vmware insists on
    making software that needs to engage in kernel level shenanigans and
    won't bother to take the extra packaging effort that entails.

    --
    A Pirate and a Puritan look the same on a balance sheet.