The November Videogame Market By the Numbers
Along with the news that more than half of the US is playing games, the November NPD numbers offer an interesting insight into the games industry. The ongoing console war was white hot, with record hardware sales. The Wii outsold the PS3 by half a million systems last month, and is quickly gaining on the Xbox 360's total sales figures. The big winners last month were software publishers, though, with a record $1.3 billion in sales. "Obviously Call of Duty 4 performed well on both the Xbox 360 and the PlayStation 3. It is now second only to Halo 3 for first-month sales numbers on the Xbox 360. On the PlayStation 3 no other game has launched as well as Call of Duty 4 in November. Super Mario Galaxy performed extremely well for its first month. Two new properties - Assassin's Creed and Mass Effect - sold well enough to make the top 10. Across both platforms, Assassin's Creed was actually the second best selling game of the month. It is amusing to note that despite the unprecedented Nintendo DS and PSP sales, no game for either system sold well enough to make the top 10 software list for November."
You can only wonder how many systems the people claiming Nintendo is manufacturing this shortage think are being produced.
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The so called xbox/ps/nintendo "console war" has been going on hot and heavy for what, 7+ years now? Can we stop calling it "white hot" and finally conceed that the each console of this generation is filling a different need, as shown by last month's NPD data? Galaxy sold well, COD4 sold well, Assasin's creed sold well, Mass effect sold well, Halo 3 sold well, the DS and PSP hardware sold well, even if they didn't have any standout games. To me, that sounds like everybody's pretty damned happy about this holiday season, and even though the ps3 isn't doing as well as the rest, they will catch up eventually. Everyone has nailed what they were trying to accomplish this gen. Congrats to all the consoles and software developers.
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The 360 has released its big games in Japan and the console is still dead in sales. And in about half the countries across Europe the PS3 has already passed the 360 in total installed base after only 9 months vs 2 years for the 360. The UK appears to be the only place the 360 isn't bombing in Europe. The 360 will be in last place in a short time in two markets soon - Japan and Europe.
The US is the only market the 360 is selling decent numbers but it appears that there are a massive number of current 360 owners who are either re-buying 360s or buying newer models hoping to get a console that doesn't have the RRoD or disc scratching issues. That obviously isn't going to last for very long but it is helping boost sales temporarily.
What is the fundamental problem for Microsoft and the 360 though is the console is selling at virtually the same rate worldwide as the first Xbox. After 6 to 7 billion dollars and six years on the market you have to start thinking the rumors of Microsoft planning on exiting the console market have truth to them.
long live pc gaming!
Does anyone care to discuss the difference in attach rates? The summary didn't specify the PS3 or PS2 attach rates, but it did come out and basically show the 360 has nearly twice the attach rate of the Wii. They also mention how Wii sports isn't included in the attach rate, but Wii Play is. I know we like to revel in the success the hardware is enjoying, but should there be concern as long as this attach rate gap exists? Should Mario have sold something more like 3million in the first month to bring it closer to the total Zelda sales? So far I believe Guitar Hero III is the most-successful third-party title on the Wii. It was definitely the first time that I noticed a 3rd party in the top ten NPD on that system. Good to see the software is really picking up in total dollars. Impressive.
They are useless for comparing pretty much anything as they are "per console". When consoles have been out for different lengths of time it's meaningless to compare attach rates. If xbox owners have had an extra year (or whatever) to buy games then you'd expect it's attach rate to be higher (a more impressive back catalogue that extra time generates will also help). Perhaps there might be some value in comparing the Wii and 360 attach rates x months after launch.
In short the "attach rate" has too much of an historic component to tell you clearly what is going on "now" which is the interesting thing.
Attach rates are only a useful measurement for console manufacturers selling consoles at a loss. In that situation the manufacturer knows that it has to reach a certain attach rate to claw back that loss before it can even think about a profit (though that is changing now they have additional profit streams such as subscriptions, virtual consoles, blu ray etc).
For everyone else you may as well just talk about total games sold. Dividing it by the number of consoles doesn't tell you anything useful.
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I've had a Wii for just over a year (Got one 2 days after launch). I got a xbox 360 this past week mainly for my girlfriend to play katamari, and so that we'd have some more generes to play. The Wii has disappointed with engaging titles. I loved Zelda, played Super Paper Mario, and lots of virtual console titles. But there is no real engaging 20 hour+ story line games on it right now. As much as I hated to give money to M$, I hated more to give it to sony. The xbox has ads everywhere, but has a smooth experience and timidly I admit that I like the HD graphics (30" 720p LCD panel, low end for HD, but nice for us). Even on a game like Katamari where graphics are very cartoony, the HD looks nice and clear compared to some games on the Wii. I hope next year 3rd parties step up and give us some good games on the Wii. The graphics can be quite good on it if they try.
As many have realised, Nintendo changed the rules and have taken themselves out of the war.
There is currently a two side race to the best HD next gen console between MS and Sony, MS are currently winning that hands down and I don't think Sony (outside of Japan) have a hope of catching up.
Nintendo have left the race, and the war by creating a fun, cheap, party machine that is attracting a new type of buyer as well as a proportion of the traditional gamer market.
I believe this expanded potential market goes someway to explaining the constant shortages of the Nintendo console and why everyone seems happy with their sales at the moment.
As an example - I'm a 38 yr old father of four and I've bought myself a Wii so I can play it with my younger kids, I've also bought one for my 19 yr old son. I've never bought a console for myself before and have no interest in games which offer 20 hrs+ of play as I simply don't have 20hrs to spend playing a game.
As an aside, the only game I've finished (due to time) in the last 10 yrs has been Portal.
In conclusion, I believe that Nintendo and MS will remain happy and Sony, in the long term will become pretty unhappy but will still claim to be happy.