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Silicon Valley Startup Prints $1/watt Solar Panels

GWBasic writes "A Silicon Valley start-up called Nanosolar has shipped its first solar panels — priced at $1 a watt. That's the price at which solar energy gets cheaper than coal. While other companies have been focusing their efforts on increasing the efficiency of solar panels, Nanosolar took a different approach. It focused on manufacturing. 'The company [has developed] a process to print solar cells made out of CIGS, or copper indium gallium selenide, a combination of elements that many companies are pursuing as an alternative to silicon.'" The outfit also happens to be backed by Google, a fact that's getting some attention at tech media sites.

71 of 519 comments (clear)

  1. Consumer offerings? by phrostie · · Score: 3, Insightful

    i was reading their webpage the other day and they only seemed to sell to large corporations or utilitiy companies. when will they start offering a consumer version.

    1. Re:Consumer offerings? by Rei · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Once their production capacity outstrips their manufacturing obligations. As per their website, which I've been following (slowly) over the past couple years, you *could* get one right now off ebay -- their #2 print. However, it's being sold as a collectible item, a piece of history, with the proceeds going to charity. So, needless to say, the price is rather steep ;)

      This is huge news. Punch $0.99 a watt into the calculator, and even good chunks of Alaska become economical for installations.

      --
      We should start dealing in those black-market beagles.
    2. Re:Consumer offerings? by MrLogic17 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      $1/watt? Cheaper than coal? I'm confused.

      Coal you burn once, and you're done. Easy price calculation.

      With solar, you buy the solar cells. And the regulators (Sunlight's variable ya know). And the battery packs, assuming you're not going directly back into the grid. And maint of said batteries.

      And the solar cells aren't producing 100% output for 12 hours/day. And the lifespan of these solar cells are an estimate.

      Don't get me wrong, I'm all for this. I'm just very suspcious of an apples to oranges comparison used in marketing speak.

    3. Re:Consumer offerings? by smilindog2000 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      This is a huge milestone. However, the summary gets a couple things wrong: First, $1/watt panels aren't "cheaper than coal". Large coal consumers buy 2,000 pounds of coal for $50. Burn that in a crappy Bush-endorsed power station, and utilities can print money at $0.07/KWh. That's why coal is the #1 enemy in the global warming battle - not oil. The $1/watt goal makes solar utility power feasible in areas that currently have excellent sunshine (say southern CA), and expensive fuel (say natural gas). It's a huge step, but not the last step.

      The second error in the summary is the current price. The company claims they could sell $1/watt panels, but with 100% of their production for 2008 already purchased, what are the odds they're selling their stuff 4X below market value? Not a chance. The revolution's happening, but it will take a while.

      --
      Beer is proof that God loves us, and wants us to be happy.
    4. Re:Consumer offerings? by Rei · · Score: 5, Informative

      Yes, it is cheaper than coal power, almost everywhere in the US. You can run the numbers for yourself. The problem with coal is that once you burn it, it's gone. The problem with traditional solar is that the capital costs are so high, you'll never catch up with the interest. When you cut the capital costs on solar significantly, it wins hands-down.

      --
      We should start dealing in those black-market beagles.
    5. Re:Consumer offerings? by DaleGlass · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I imagine though that the $1/Watt isn't a $1/Watt in the panel's lifetime, but $1 for a panel that will generate 1 Wh, when used at full capacity.

      Assuming a lifetime of 20 years, a $50 panel producing 50Wh will produce 8760 kW at $.005/KWh, assuming it runs at full capacity 24/7. An actual real world figure would be several times worse, but that still comes out looking very good.

    6. Re:Consumer offerings? by dgatwood · · Score: 2, Insightful

      It's $1/Watt, not $1/Watt-hour. $1/watt is $1000/kW divided by... say 8 hours of full sun per day... time 20 years. That will get you the kWhr price, or about 1.7 cents per kWhr, a fifth the price you mention for coal. Of course, you won't always get 8 hours of full sun per day in all locations, so the numbers are highly variable by location and time of year, but if your numbers are correct, that is significantly cheaper than coal in many cases.

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

    7. Re:Consumer offerings? by bodrell · · Score: 5, Informative

      This is a huge milestone. However, the summary gets a couple things wrong: First, $1/watt panels aren't "cheaper than coal". Large coal consumers buy 2,000 pounds of coal for $50. Burn that in a crappy Bush-endorsed power station, and utilities can print money at $0.07/KWh.
      You can't compare watts to kWh. They aren't the same units. But I went ahead and did the math for you.

      1 kWh = 3.61 x 10^6 J
      $0.07/kWh = 14.3 kWh/$ = 51.6 x 10^6 J/$
      solar panel = $1/W = $1/(J/s)
      3600 s/h, 24 h/d, 365 d/year --> 31.5 x 10^6 s
      51.6 x 10^6 (J/$) / 31.5 x 10^6 (J/year/$) --> 1.64 years (producing at full capacity) makes it cheaper than coal. Even if you only run at 25% capacity on average, taking into account varying daily solar intensity, the investment pays for itself in 6.5 years.

      Of course, your other points are valid; burning coal is bad, at least using the current technology. And that $1/W number is still theoretical, so if they're selling at $4/W, then it would take 26 years to be as cost-effective as coal (given constant energy costs; but that time would be much shorter if we have an energy crunch and prices spike--or another Enron-style price-gouging scam, for that matter).
      --
      Si la vida me da palo, yo la voy a soportar Si la vida me da palo, yo la voy a espabilar
    8. Re:Consumer offerings? by Pascoea · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Burn that in a crappy Bush-endorsed power station, and utilities can print money at $0.07/KWh.

      They wouldn't burn the shit if you didn't use the product. Next time you want to bitch about coal power, try doing it in the dark without your electricity consuming computer. I'm not saying that there isn't a market for alternative energy sources, but why don't you coal bashers take some time out of your busy granola eating life to do some research into what has been done, or is being pursued in the coal-burning plants so you piss-ants can quit whining about pollution?

      Do me a favor, pull you head out of (the sand) and be realistic.

      BTW, Bush does suck, there is no contention to that on my part.

      -A

    9. Re:Consumer offerings? by smilindog2000 · · Score: 3, Informative

      Thanks for the web site. It computes the break-even point for installing solar panels at home, and plugging in $1/watt makes it all work out quite well. I'll have to keep track of this link. However, from what I read, coal is still cheaper to burn for power in utility plants. I read that it costs utilities between $0.01 and $0.02 per KWh to produce when burning coal, even when taking the cost of the plant into account.

      --
      Beer is proof that God loves us, and wants us to be happy.
    10. Re:Consumer offerings? by mr_mischief · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I'm frankly too lazy to do the math right now, but maybe they're counting on installations closer to consumption sites with less delivery loss. The cost of generation in large centralized plants is one thing, but line attenuation and impedance loss are another.

    11. Re:Consumer offerings? by Rei · · Score: 4, Informative

      The calculations are a lot more complicated than that. You can check the source for the calculator (linked earlier) to get an idea of all that needs to be taken into account.

      The reported wattage of a panel is typically the amount of power it will produce when given 1000W/m^2 of sunlight and with the panel maintaining a constant temperature of 25C. 1000W/m^2 is basically your best-case situation here on the surface -- bright, crystal-clear sky on a summer day with the panel facing straight at the sun. Overall, the panel will average produce far less than its rating, but the exact amount is very complex to determine and depends on where you are and what your setup is like, so panels are rated in standard terms. Beyond that, there's also the "derate factor", which is the losses in your system apart from the panels -- wiring, terminals, etc, but most importantly, the losses in your inverter. 0.77 is a good derate factor. The derate factor drops with age. Panels also produce less power with age, but this effect is often overemphasized.

      Secondly, you're confusing watts and watt hours. Watts are a unit of power, while watt hours are a unit of energy (a Joule, another common unit of energy, is a watt second). If your panel is producing 1W, then it's producing 1 Wh every hour -- i.e., 8.8 kWh/year. But if it's simply a panel that's rated for 1W, and isn't on a heliostat, you'll probably get something like 0.5 to 1.5kWh/year, depending on where you are.

      --
      We should start dealing in those black-market beagles.
    12. Re:Consumer offerings? by kestasjk · · Score: 3, Insightful

      It's tricky to convert between watts and kWh, they sound the same but one is a unit of power and one is a unit of energy. Power is energy per second, so it's like comparing the cost of a gallon of water with the cost of a spring.

      A kWh is like a glass of water, and a watt is like a trickle of water from a leaky tap. A 1 watt panel would take 1000 hours to make one kWh.
      If a panel lasts 1000 hours then you're paying $1/kWh, which doesn't compete with $0.07/kWh. If it lasts forever you're basically paying $0/kWh in the long run, so you might as well buy ~10^12 panels and forget about energy problems.
      This is why hydroelectric power is appealing: Once built they stay there generating power for only the cost of maintenance, the problem is there are only so many places where a dam can be built.

      In a nutshell more info is needed to know if this even counts as progress. What about the materials? Can you get lots of whatever semiconductor they're using cheaply? Does the $1/Watt panel become $1/ 0.01 Watts when it's not facing directly at the sun on a bright day in California?

      I'm not looking for any "revolution" from a small start up energy company.


      By the way this is an area where nuclear power could become an even better alternative: The big cost of nuclear power is building the plant and decommissioning it afterwards, the uranium is dirt cheap. The price of a kWh from a nuclear plant is made up mostly of the price of building and decommissioning the plant. If a nuclear plant's design can be made so the life is doubled the cost will halve. If a plant that lasts as long as a hydroelectric plant could be designed we could have power too cheap to meter.

      --
      // MD_Update(&m,buf,j);
    13. Re:Consumer offerings? by Rei · · Score: 4, Informative

      Actually, you'd be surprised. They have a patent on their *specific* process, but they don't have a patent on CIGS cells in general, and there are quite a few companies pursuing them. I doubt anyone will be able to hit Nanosolar's price point because not only is Nanosolar ahead in terms of commercialization, but I think their tech is the most promising CIGS cell tech. Even still, the competitors should be able to at least approach Nanosolar's prices, and -- here's the big deal -- since it'd be a decade at best before Nanosolar could sate the market's demand enough to lower prices to that $1/W level, its competitors production should help the prices fall faster.

      --
      We should start dealing in those black-market beagles.
    14. Re:Consumer offerings? by MBraynard · · Score: 2, Informative

      Your ideas about the environmental impact of coal are better suited for the 19th century, not the 21st. Coal is cleaner than ever and if Clinton had not shut off America's source to the cleanest available sources in Utah, it would be cleaner still.

    15. Re:Consumer offerings? by Facetious · · Score: 2, Informative

      As chance would have it, I came across this very informative chart from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. I am astounded at the amount of loss (transmission being a major factor).

      --
      Let us not become the evil that we deplore.
    16. Re:Consumer offerings? by flaming-opus · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You're forgetting two very important things. In your math you're forgetting to amortize your capital costs. Basically you're assuming that you can get a 0% loan. In reality, paying for solar up-front, instead of coal as you need it, you need to tripple the cost of the solar, because of the interest you will have to pay over the 25-year life of that "loan".

      Secondly, solar provides great energy during the middle of the day. However, most residential electrical demand happens in the early evening, when people get home from work and turn everything on. Most industrial users of electricity need a constant supply, around the clock. Commercial users need electricity throughout the day, with a spike in the late afternoon as air conditioning demand increases. Solar-electricity provides for some, but not all of these needs. Storing solar energy in batteries, thermal storage systems, or mechanical storage systems doubles or tripples the cost again.

      Thus, even with $1/W panels, general-purpose solar power is still 8-10X the cost of coal. I'm terribly doubtful that solar power will ever be economically competitive with coal, UNLESS you factor in the ecological costs. Unless we start taxing utilities for the carbon that they emit, we will not see solar become competitive, beyond little feel-good projects, and home-hobbyists.

    17. Re:Consumer offerings? by AmericanInKiev · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I think you'll find that Clinto's administration was headed towards tighten restrictions on coal plants. There were reasonable, scheduled improvements. Bush took us off the path to improvement, so basically yes - this is all Bush's fault. remember, a stronger presidency means more blame. Clinton shared power, and thus responsibility.
      AIK

    18. Re:Consumer offerings? by rcw-home · · Score: 3, Informative

      Generation, supposedly, doesn't lose much in very large plants. That would leave distribution, which I assume means local substations and transformers on power poles.

      Generation does lose a lot from any heat engine (which is currently a required step for anything that generates electricity by making something hot: coal, oil, nuclear, geothermal, biomass, and natural gas). Wikipedia's combined cycle gas turbine article lists 59% efficiency as state of the art. The theoretical limit is not 100% efficiency - it is the Carnot Limit defined by the ratio of the high and low temperatures (natural gas burns at 1600K, the coldest you'll get the exhaust is 400K, so your absolute max is 75% efficiency).

      Mechanical-electrical conversion (hydro, wind) is much more efficient. Electric generators are basically motors, and the large ones are commonly 95% efficient. The Francis turbines in use at hydro plants are upwards of 80% efficient at converting water pressure to rotor power. I don't know what the numbers are like for the wind turbines - probably much worse, since the goal isn't to make the turbine blades stop the air entirely.

      Photovoltaic solar generation is the worst of them all. The most expensive cells that they put on space satellites are just over 40% efficient. The more cost-practical silicon-based cells are more like 12% efficient. As a result, a new development in large-scale solar is using a bunch of mirrors to focus the light into heat which can then spin a turbine (which may be 35-40% efficient).

    19. Re:Consumer offerings? by bodrell · · Score: 2, Insightful

      You're forgetting two very important things. In your math you're forgetting to amortize your capital costs. Basically you're assuming that you can get a 0% loan. In reality, paying for solar up-front, instead of coal as you need it, you need to tripple the cost of the solar, because of the interest you will have to pay over the 25-year life of that "loan".
      Ah, assumptions. Will coal prices stay constant? What about inflation, even if coal supply remains constant? And the 25 year figure was only for $4/W. At the $1/W figure cited, it's less than 7 years (assuming the 25% capacity, and I don't know how reasonable that is). What about if I buy more than my capacity, and actually am able to sell electricity back to power company when I produce excess?

      Secondly, solar provides great energy during the middle of the day. However, most residential electrical demand happens in the early evening, when people get home from work and turn everything on. Most industrial users of electricity need a constant supply, around the clock. Commercial users need electricity throughout the day, with a spike in the late afternoon as air conditioning demand increases. Solar-electricity provides for some, but not all of these needs. Storing solar energy in batteries, thermal storage systems, or mechanical storage systems doubles or tripples the cost again.
      Batteries? Huh? First, solar electricity in California (not where I live, btw, but it is a state with very expensive electricity) can be sold back to the utility company; if you produce more than is required, it causes the meter to run backwards. And since the highest electricity demand is during the middle of the day, especially when people run air conditioning, that is when the rates are highest. If you sell energy back to the utility company when the rates are highest, then use electricity in the evenings when rates are lower, it's a win-win. And storage? Use the grid! Besides the advantage of selling excess energy, being connected to the grid eliminates battery and storage costs (not to mention inverters and other equipment).

      Thus, even with $1/W panels, general-purpose solar power is still 8-10X the cost of coal.
      Except that your math is incorrect, the panels in question are very inefficient, and a bunch of other people are working on this problem to drive the prices down. Not to mention you used the 25 year figure, which applies to $4/W panels, not $1/W. Also, I checked the price of energy on the DOE website, and California electricity costs $0.125/kWh, not $0.07/kWh. In sunny Hawaii, the electricity cost is $0.207/kWh! http://www.eia.doe.gov/bookshelf/brochures/rep/ In Hawaii, with rates 3X above what I used in my calculations, $1/W panels would pay for themselves in only 2-3 years. That's assuming you don't lose too much money getting them shipped to Hawaii, and that the panels are still only 25% efficient even so close to the equator.
      --
      Si la vida me da palo, yo la voy a soportar Si la vida me da palo, yo la voy a espabilar
    20. Re:Consumer offerings? by dasunt · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I am running the numbers.

      Coal is .08$ a kWh.

      So for $1000, that buys 1 kW of photovoltaic cells.

      If the cells are run for 12,500 hours at full capacity, the price is equal to coal. Past 12,500 hours of full capacity, that's cheaper than coal.

      That's 521 days of 24/7 sunlight, for almost two years. Rather unlikely on earth.

      The Google tells me [I]A 1 kilowatt peak Solar System will generate around 1600 kilowatt hours per year in a sunny climate and about 750 kilowatt hours per year in a cloudy climate[/I]. Which means that we need to run the system for 7.8 years before we see it being cheaper than coal (double that in cloudy climates). And this assumes that the system still operates at full efficiency for the duration of those years.

      This is not counting the related infrastructure needed for photovoltaic -- battery arrays, voltage converters, etc.

      I'm doubting the numbers.

    21. Re:Consumer offerings? by MBraynard · · Score: 2, Insightful
      So more than 1000 scientists are wrong? What's your education and training that has you knowing more than those who have their degrees in climatology or related fields?

      Because I have carefully listened to the arguments on both sides, know the ideologies of those involved (scientists are some of the worst in terms of ethics). So I am bold enough to cite the works of these 400 scientists who went on record in 2007.

      1000s of scientists got DDT banned - needlessly - and killed millions of people as a result from malaria. Scientists cannot accurately predict a storm season season. Scientists allow themselves to be used by politicians to enrich themselves.

      Regarding bottles water (and I meant pure) still gives greater economic value to a prestine - regardess of the sustainability. Eventually the replenish rate will meet the usage rate. So drink up.

      Regarding MTR, that is not a reason to limit coal use. Greater demand for coal creates greater incentives to find alternatives to MTM since the amount of problems (if there are really any long term MTM problems - it doesn't seem like it).

      Further, a strong economy - fueled inescapably by greater energy needs - is what is required to reach the technical and economic thresholds necessary to find fully sustainable, totally clean alternatives. Limiting access to coal also limits mankinds ability to reach that threshold and will bottleneck further progress.

      You are really long on whining about problems and short on practicle solutions, aren't you? Can't use coal, can't drink bottled water, and, btw, the sky is falling. What else can we add to the list?

  2. What's in your stocking? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

    Of course coal also works at night.

    1. Re:What's in your stocking? by sm62704 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      So do rechargeable batteries.

      This makes me think once again that the 20th century was an abberation.

      Before the 20th century if you wanted to know what time it was you pulled a clock out of your pocket. In the 20th century you looked at the clock on your wrist. After the 20th century you pulled your phone out of your pocket.

      Before the 20th century musicians made their money by performing. During the 20th century many musicians made their money by recording music. After the advent of the internet musicians will once again make their money by performing and use their recordings as advertising (as everybody but the RIAA bands do now).

      Before the 20th century there were few wires. During the 20th century wires were everywhere - strung from poles, on your phone, TV, computer eqiopment, everything that used electrity. After the 20th century everything is wireless.

      -mcgrew

      --
      mcgrew's razor: Never attribute to stupidity that which can be explained by greedy self-interest
    2. Re:What's in your stocking? by Red+Flayer · · Score: 2, Informative

      I think we'll see studies as soon as we have the capacity for economically feasible distributed energy production (such as the solar cells mentioned here ramped up in scale). I think feasibility studies will be happening in the next fifty years. Decentralized power production is really what the power companies fear.

      --
      "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
    3. Re:What's in your stocking? by Slugster · · Score: 2, Interesting

      This is true.

      There's only three problems with solar power installations: the cost of solar cells, the cost of inverters, and the cost of storage batteries.

      Solar cells without storage batteries is only helpful for things that you only need to run during peak daylight hours--or if you live in an area that doesn't have enough power capability for peak-load use times (such as California, with its regular rolling blackouts in certain areas during the summer).

      The huge costs of residential whole-house solar setups makes them economically unattractive to most people where utility power is an available option... the only places in the US they're popular (or even common) is where there are big government subsidies available.... such as in California. Outside of areas with such subsidies, solar system contractors won't claim that a suburban house system will save money, because overall,,, -it won't.

      It's my understanding that in most cases, a windmill will give a greater return of electricity for its cost than a solar panel will--but there again is a problem. The main factor of a windmill is how high it can be mounted, and 25 feet off the ground doesn't get you much in terms of wind speed. They don't really start cooking until they're mounted 150 or 200 feet off the ground, and I don't know that's something I'd care to see suburbia even attempt.
      ~

  3. Eventually. by xlsior · · Score: 5, Insightful

    From the article: Roscheisen said the manufacturing process the company has developed will enable it to eventually deliver solar electricity for less than a dollar per watt

  4. Hopefully this will just be the start... by tinrobot · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Once they get their manufacturing up to speed, prices will most likely get even lower.

    Too bad they're already sold out for the first 18 months of production, because at those prices, you could make a typical house solar for about $1500-2000 for the panels, plus another few grand for installation and hookup. At that price, it makes a lot of sense.

    1. Re:Hopefully this will just be the start... by leet · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I've been looking seriously into going solar on my house. I live in Arizona and it costs about $18,000 to $20,000 for the initial installation. You end up with about $4,000 out of pocket once the conversion is done and you've gotten the tax breaks, etc. The process of installation takes about 6 months. I don't have the start up capital to do it.

      As soon as I can I'm going to because I'm sick of the high electric bills in the summer. I can do nothing about it because you have to run your air conditioner when it's 115 degrees outside. I'm very energy conscious but I still end up using over 3000 kW-Hours during the worst months. I'm not a greeny either, I just don't like the cost. I long for the day when I don't have to worry about this anymore and I can run whatever appliances I want, whenever I want. As it is now I try to run my vacuum cleaner and laundry on weekend only when the power rate is lower. I would very much like to do things on my schedule and not the power company schedule.

      For me solar is about freedom and convenience. I don't give a rip about the environment because I don't think man could destroy it even if he tried. The doomsday people have been wrong for decades, but the earth just keeps on healing itself no matter what the going wisdom is at the time.

    2. Re:Hopefully this will just be the start... by Rei · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Indeed. Rules of thumb are awful for solar installations because the power production, geometry, and needs vary so much. You really need to calculate it for your given setup. Offgrid is a huge premium to pay, and with panels this cheap, it's now going to be an even bigger premium. Not only do you have to pay for the batteries, but also their maintenance, replacement, and the charge controller, which at $5.80/amp, isn't negligable either. For on-grid, panels are typically the overwhelming portion of the costs. With panels this cheap, you'll spend almost as much on the inverter and installation as you will on the panels ;)

      --
      We should start dealing in those black-market beagles.
    3. Re:Hopefully this will just be the start... by nmos · · Score: 2, Informative

      I'm not a greeny either, I just don't like the cost. I long for the day when I don't have to worry about this anymore and I can run whatever appliances I want, whenever I want. As it is now I try to run my vacuum cleaner and laundry on weekend only when the power rate is lower. I would very much like to do things on my schedule and not the power company schedule.

      If that's your goal then you can pretty much scratch solar off you list. One of the first things people learn when they start to look into solar is that it's much cheaper to reduce your consumption (effecient appliances, better insulation, reduction in phantom loads, cfls etc.) and then buy a smallar solar system then it is to try to buy a system that will meet their current usage. If you don't like doing laundry on weekends when power is cheaper you're really going to hate coming home to do laundry during lunch because that's when the sun is the strongest or putting it off a day or two because it's cloudy. At least weekends are 100% predictable.

    4. Re:Hopefully this will just be the start... by Rei · · Score: 4, Informative

      How do you explain the cooling trend in the 70s? You guys are the same tossers who were out there in the 70s claiming the Ice Age was coming,

      Not really.

      the same alarmists who were warning that everyone would soon burn up because of the ozone hole (which is now smaller, but the hole has always been there) in the 80s

      Not really.

      But, hey:

      Don't try to educate me on the science

      Finding the sand comfortable around your head, eh?

      --
      We should start dealing in those black-market beagles.
    5. Re:Hopefully this will just be the start... by leet · · Score: 2, Informative

      Indeed. I'm not bothered by what you think of my conclusions. So if that means I have my head in the sand by your standards, then it's a damn good thing that what you say doesn't matter.

      You're obviously in the majority here as I get modded flamebait and you're modded informative which is group think for others agree with you and disagree with me. Again, not bothered by this. Neither is science and fortunately it never will be.

      Also, your link proves my point. It supports what I'm saying. Why did you link with "Not Really"? Why do you say my head is in the sand?

      Let me get this straight. You link to something that supports my points, then you imply that what I say is not true which is not what your links indicate, and then you also think I've got my head in the sand? Only on Slashdot. You get modded up for implying you disagree with me, but you don't. I get modded down because I'm in your face about it.

      This is a fun place ;-)

    6. Re:Hopefully this will just be the start... by leet · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Whoa there partner! Slow down a bit! As I moused over the links they all seemed to be pointing to the same web site. So I only went here: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/10/global-cooling-again/ Pardon me for not following what appeared to be dupes. Next time you want to debate something, just list the references for the simple folk like myself. The next paragraphs are in regard to this link. The point you missed was the hysteria this illustrates. Even if the data was found not to be true, people still ran with it and lobbied for certain things because of it. They expected everyone to do something with the information, even if it was bad information. I was making a case for social implications. So you did illustrate that point well. I'm not arguing data the all. It is what it is. I don't think I've indicated it was anything but. We do disagree on the results of this data and what will be caused if certain trends continue.

      we do not have a good quantitative understanding of our climate machine and what determines its course. Without the fundamental understanding, it does not seem possible to predict climate?" somehow supports your argument. This thoroughly supports my stance. A correllary to this is we can't predict it because we can't model it. We can't model it because we don't understand it. But we sure as hell can conclude that man is changing what we can't model and don't understand. I rest my case. You lose. Thanks for playing. Have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
    7. Re:Hopefully this will just be the start... by leet · · Score: 2

      Your argument is an ad hominem. It is not ad hominem. You didn't follow the discussion and your logic is erroneous.

      You are claiming that because some people are misinterpreting data that your opponent is too. No one disputes the data. This applies to myself and my opponent. Anyone can look at the data. It takes a scientific mind to formulate a testable theory. Theories that can't be tested or proven are not theories, they are called hypotheses. I disagree with the hypothesis. It is still under investigation by the scientific community. This will be a long process because no one can define an experiment that adequately controls the variables at this point to test the hypothesis: Man can control global warming and that the trends, regardless of cause, will forcast devastation. This is a poor and unsupported hypothesis regardless of who states it, whether I like the person or not. What is ad hominem about that?

      Now, you stated that you do not dispute the data, yet argue that climate cannot be modeled or understood. So did he. That's why I mocked his quote and destoyed his baseless conclusions. Not disputing data has nothing to do with whether climate can be modeled or understood. This statement is absolute garbage.

      Finally, we do not understand everything about the behavior of turbulent flows. Does this mean that a plumber cannot say that water hammer will destroy your pipes? I'm sorry but I think you have no clue what you're talking about here. Can you explain what turbulent flow has to do with shock wave propagation? Plumbers can say that a "Water Hammer" will destroy pipes because compressible flow and properties like the bulk modulus of water are well understood. Experiments to replicate these theories have confirmed these facts in the field of fluid mechanics. Turbulent flow, which has nothing to do with this, is still an area of active study in fluid mechanics. Certain problems have to contain aspects of compressibility in the study of turbulent flow but not all turbulent flow study requires this to be considered. I could write a whole essay on this subject but jest of this post is to show that you have said absolutely nothing of value to anyone.
  5. Inaccurate summary by Chainsaw+Karate · · Score: 4, Informative

    From the article: "Roscheisen said the manufacturing process the company has developed will enable it to eventually deliver solar electricity for less than a dollar per watt"

    Nowhere in the article does it mention the price of the first run of panels. I'd imagine they are much more expensive than $1/watt.

  6. Yahoo! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I don't really know whether global warming is real and dangerous. Now just maybe I don't have to care.

    Can we conver Arizona with these (and use ultracapacitors for night power)? Please?

    1. Re:Yahoo! by explosivejared · · Score: 4, Interesting

      You sir are a genius. No really I mean it. I wish there were more people like you that put the ad nauseum hashed debate about warming or climate change or whatever to the side. There is a legitimate argument for a lot of different viewpoints about the climate. The area where there is no room for different viewpoints is on the limited nature of fossil energy resources. Whether or not you buy into anthropogenic climate change or not, you should support more efficient non-fossil fuel energy sources. Diversity is the key. For two long we've all of our eggs in one basket, and it hasn't been until recently that we've realized that come back and bite us. Cheap solar like this could go a long way to broadening available energy as we start to see the real issue with energy arise, namely how do we support a rapidly industrializing third world and a world population that will reach nine billion in fifty years. Quantity is a real problem. We've built our economies on cheap energy, and now we're gonna have to work to keep that going.

      --
      I got a catholic block.
    2. Re:Yahoo! by Rei · · Score: 4, Informative

      Quite a few problems with that. :)

      For one, I can't picture production capacity catching up with demand enough to lower prices to that level for at least a decade, and even that would take a trenemdous expansion rate. There's no way Nanosolar is going to *sell* at $0.99/W when the current market price if $5.80/W and they don't have enough production capacity to meet supply. They stated that they can *turn a profit* selling at $0.99/W. They'll sell for $5.70/W, $5.60/W, or whatnot -- whatever's the most they can charge and move all their capacity. They're not idiots. They're going to earn every last dollar they can, and pump it into new production facilities. Only as the market becomes saturated will prices drop.

      Secondly, global warming is going to happen even if all killed ourselves today. There's too much inertia behind the problem. What we effect today is what things are going to be like in 2050, 2100, not the next decade or two.

      Third, this doesn't address vehicles. Still have to take care of that gorilla in the corner. It also doesn't address industry CO2 pollution unrelated to power demand, such as steel production. Still, it's a great start.

      Fourth, you don't need to cover a big expanse of desert at all. There's more than enough rooftop space in the world to meet demand. Example: China has 32521 square kilometers of urban area. Assuming 11% efficiency on these cells and 25% of that urban area being able to be coated in cells, and assuming an average insolation of 200W/m^2, we get a total power production of about 180 terrawatts. Current *world* demand is only 10 terrawatts. See where I'm going with this?

      Fifth, ultracapacitors are too expensive for power storage currently. We're still going to need baseload power production until a cheaper method of storing power can be found. One concept that I find interesting relates to electric cars. To charge a car quickly in your garage, you're going to need a home charging unit. Your house just can't deliver power nearly fast enough for a five to ten minute charge. The idea I read is to use those for power balancing: have them charge themselves when there's a glut of electricity and discharge into the grid when there's a shortage. In exchange, utilities would give consumers a significant discount on their power bill.

      --
      We should start dealing in those black-market beagles.
    3. Re:Yahoo! by Rei · · Score: 3, Informative

      You're right. All of the world's climate scientists are idiots, and didn't figure out this obvious thing which you did. Right? Because that's the implications of what you're saying: you think essentially all of the world's climate scientists are complete and utter idiots.

      Of course, what you said is completely untrue, but hey, who cares? Like most anti-global warming arguments, they sound good to someone who knows absolutely nothing about the subject.

      --
      We should start dealing in those black-market beagles.
    4. Re:Yahoo! by Rei · · Score: 2, Informative

      My apologies. But after the first thousand people who've never read a single peer-reviewed paper on the subject who think that they've figured out some obvious thing that defeats global warming that everyone else mysteriously missed, you start to lose patience. I half expect to hear the "sensors are only measuring a heat island effect" one trotted out any minute now.

      --
      We should start dealing in those black-market beagles.
    5. Re:Yahoo! by Rei · · Score: 2, Informative

      Wow, can I call it or what? :) No, that's wrong also.

      --
      We should start dealing in those black-market beagles.
  7. Re:How practical by tinrobot · · Score: 4, Informative

    They have a 25 year warranty, so hopefully they'll last at least that long.

    They are printed on aluminum instead of glass so yes, they are flexible.

  8. Are they fire resistant? Toxic when burning? by AHumbleOpinion · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Will they last, are they durable, is it flexible or rigid? Lot of questions left to answer on the solar front. However, if I can shingle my roof with these things, all the better!

    If you are going to shingle your roof then "are they fire resistant" and "do they release toxic fumes when burning" should be two more explicit first questions.

    1. Re:Are they fire resistant? Toxic when burning? by rucs_hack · · Score: 2, Insightful

      sooo.

      I can has my tin foil hat and be environmentally friendly at the same time?

  9. Re:Seems good. by Rei · · Score: 5, Informative

    It is a rather safe formulation. That's one of the reasons why it's more popular among new companies than cadmium telluride cells.

    Nobody can "put their money where their mouth is" and "snatch these up", because all of their capacity is currently being eaten up by a 1MW german PV installation. And, one correction to the article: they're not being sold for $0.99. The company has stated that they can turn a profit on them selling them at $0.99. But as long as there's a glut of demand and shortage of cells, it seems unlikely that they'll hit that price. What it *does* mean is that Nanosolar never has to worry about money again. Venture capitalists will be throwing money at them if only Nanosolar lets them. They'll have no problem scaling up production; we just need to be patient.

    --
    We should start dealing in those black-market beagles.
  10. Units Please! What's the cost per watt hour by Overzeetop · · Score: 3, Insightful

    It's not just the cost of the panel that matters, but the anticipated life of the panel. Traditionally, it has taken more energy to make a panel than that panel will return to the grid. That's not as big a deal if you're truly off grid - say in the boonies, or in space - but it matters if you want to make it viable in a business sense. And it can't just be equal, it's got to be a significantly low fraction. Otherwise you're creating an energy storage medium (and a very limited one in the case of a solar panel) instead of a power generator.

    --
    Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
    1. Re:Units Please! What's the cost per watt hour by Alioth · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The current generation solar panels have an energy payback time of 6 years in the real world, and typically last for at least 25 years.

      Presumably, what makes this technology potentially less expensive is it requires less resources to make than silicon solar cells, so it's fairly likely that they have a faster energy payback than silicon cells.

    2. Re:Units Please! What's the cost per watt hour by matt_martin · · Score: 2, Interesting

      For sure, usable life is an important part of the cost/benefit and energy balance calculation.

      However, I've seen energy payback quoted anywhere from 1-3 years for conventional silicon photo-voltaic solar panels including the glass and metal packaging. As they are supposed to have a life > 20 years I'm not sure your second statement is correct. Do you have a source ?

      --
      Lurking in the desert
    3. Re:Units Please! What's the cost per watt hour by blind+biker · · Score: 2, Informative

      Traditionally, it has taken more energy to make a panel than that panel will return to the grid.

      That's actually incorrect. The average till a couple of years ago used to be 1:4, that is, the total production energy was about 1/4 of the energy the panels would generate in their lifetime.

      But I guess mods can't be bothered to check facts.

      --
      "The agriculture ministry is not in charge of Gundam" - Japanese ministry official.
    4. Re:Units Please! What's the cost per watt hour by steveha · · Score: 2, Informative
      Traditionally, it has taken more energy to make a panel than that panel will return

      However, that is no longer the case. I quote Wikipedia:

      In the 1990s, when silicon cells were twice as thick, efficiencies 30% lower than today and lifetimes shorter, it may well have cost more energy to make a cell than it could generate in a lifetime. The energy payback time of a modern photovoltaic module is anywhere from 1 to 20 years (usually under five)[12] depending on the type and where it is used (see net energy gain). This means solar cells can be net energy producers, meaning they generate more energy over their lifetime than the energy expended in producing them.[13][12][14]

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell#Solar_cells_and_energy_payback

      So, if you take a solar cell and stick it into an underground cave, it probably won't be producing more energy than it took to manufacture. But for typical uses a solar cell will be a net energy producer.

      steveha
      --
      lf(1): it's like ls(1) but sorts filenames by extension, tersely
  11. Re:DOH! by Tiroth · · Score: 2, Informative

    You were right the first time: 220V * 100A = 22000W = $22000 @ $1/W.

    Of course, most designs would require a much smaller up-front investment, because you'll run off the grid when you are using the dryer/stove/ironing/AC, but take advantage of cheaper power for the base load (lights, computer, fridge).

  12. Indium by RikF · · Score: 4, Insightful

    This stuff is already hard to come by. We won't all be covering our houses in this stuff!

    --
    In Soviet Russia you own your cat
    1. Re:Indium by Bryansix · · Score: 2, Informative

      "It is estimated that, at current consumption rates, there is only 13 years' supply of indium left."

      This according to New Scientist which is quoted in the Wikipedia Article on Indium.

  13. Re:DOH! by ivan256 · · Score: 4, Informative

    You have to clear the snow off of it, it only works when the sun is out so you need a crap-load of batteries or $15-20k worth of automated switching equipment which allows you to be simultaneously connected to the grid without electrocuting the lineman who is working on your pole and thinks the power is off, you probably need to multiply your number by at least 4, because you need to generate power for the 75% of the time you're not getting good sun in the 25% of the time that you are, and you need some pricey inverters if you want to run devices designed for 110V AC...

    Additionally, they're not actually $1/watt. That's the theoretical cost if they are able to ramp up production as planned. If you had $1 for every startup that failed in that phase, you wouldn't care how much your solar panels cost.

  14. Re:Cost per watt is based on what time frame? by DragonWriter · · Score: 3, Informative

    When companies report that their solar solution costs $X a watt, is this figure a steady watt/hour figure (e.g 1000W = 1kw/h) during which time the sun is shining on the pannels, or watts generated per hour of direct sunlight, 8 hrs of direct sunlight, every odd Tuesday, what?


    Watt is a unit of power, not energy. So its watts (presumably, in some specified lighting conditions), not "watt/hour".

    I always assumed it's a steady watt/hour figure but in this case $1000 would give you 1KWH while they were running, which gives you (assuming you have a battery storage solution) a production of 180KW/H a month (assuming 6hrs of "good" sunlight a day for 30 days.)


    Assuming it was average output per 6 hours of usable time a day (which its probably not, its more likely the peak at the best conditions), and presuming also that surface area limits are not an issue (which they may well be), and that $1/watt was the current cost, rather than an estimate of what the technology would eventually provide, yes, $1000 would get you panels that would produce ~$180 kW-h (not kW/h) per month.
  15. Consumer use? by Dan+East · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Since they are focusing on cheap manufacturing instead of light conversion efficiency, these things may not produce much output per unit of area.

    So it may be one of those scenarios where you would have to cover your entire roof, as well as those of your two nearest neighbors, to generate enough power for a single house. In other words, they may be intending this for use in solar farms out in rural areas, where real-estate is not a concern.

    Dan East

    --
    Better known as 318230.
  16. Some calculations by SamP2 · · Score: 5, Informative

    In hotter climates people use solar roofings already, especially for electric water boilers. But with sufficiently cheap and available coating, people could make entire roofs covered with solar panels. You'd also of course have to think about things like durability and waterproofing.

    (Up front, I apologize to all the yanks for being an insensitive clod that doesn't use imperial measurements).

    Earth's surface is absorbing ~90 petawatts of electricity any give time (Wikipedia), and with 510 million square kilometers of surface area, an incredibly rough generalized calculation says that each square meter absorbs 175 watts (this is a 24-hour average, even though obviously it's all absorbed during daytime). Of course, not all or even most of it can be converted to electricity, but still, that's a huge resource tap. I'd estimate an average home to have a roof surface area of about 50 square meters, which means that on average the sun sends 8kW on your roof. Next, the average American household uses 8900 kWh/year, which produces, again, an average usage of about 1 kilowatt per household. If you tile your entire roof with solar panels, you'd need to be able to convert 12% of heat/light energy to electricity in order to be fully self-sufficient.

    An extra bonus is that the more you absorb the sun's energy as electricity, the less of it is converted to heat which dissipates around the planet, and that in and of itself reduces the effect global warming. So you are being twice as productive - not rely on heat-trapping coal, and reduce the amount of heat that saturates on the planet in the first place.

    Of course, this would have to be done on a truly massive scale to have any effect, but every bit helps, and if the industry can make it profitable to the consumer (and of course overcome the interests of evil megalomaniac neofascistliberal Big Oil corporations, as any /. troll will point out), it'll grow on its own.

    1. Re:Some calculations by ZorinLynx · · Score: 2, Informative

      >the less of it is converted to heat which dissipates around the planet, and that in and of itself reduces the effect global warming.

      Allow me to teach you about the laws of thermodynamics.

      You may be converting the sunlight into electricity instead of heat directly, but unfortunately when that electricity is used, it eventually will become heat.

      It doesn't matter what you use the power for. Run a fan? The moving air will eventually slow down via friction and turn into heat. Run a light bulb? The light is eventually absorbed by surfaces which warm up, becoming heat. Run a computer? Every single watt you put in becomes heat.

      This is the way life is, and there's no way around it. :)

  17. CdTe vs CIGS by savuporo · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Anyone followed First Solar ( FSLR ) IPO ?
    They were the first to bring CdTe cells to market, and guess what happened ..

    Now, several companies have been working furiously to get the competing CIGS cells going. Miasole, Nanosolar, HelioVolt, just to name a few. FSLR of course beat them to market, and is already a winner, but i am waiting for IPOs for the CIGS companies too ..
    Anything that doesnt use crystalline silicon is going to be huge, and in some instances, already is.

    --
    http://validator.w3.org/check?uri=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.slashdot.org Errors found while checking this document as HTML5!
  18. Re:DOH! by hypnagogue · · Score: 2, Informative

    So I could power my whole house for a one time investment of less than $2k? Sounds too good to be true. What's the catch?
    Depends on what your expectations are. Were you planning on actually having power during the other 20 hours of the day? If so, then you'll need to have a very large battery array, and about 6 times the solar capacity you've calculated in order to fully charge the batteries during the relatively brief peak hours. Add in a massive charge controller and inverter, and you are pretty close to working.

    We have lots of people here in South Park (no, not a joke) that run solar; but none run solar exclusively (that's impossible). In order to do things like laundry or the dishes, most of them have to fire up the generator. And, during the winter, peak solar hours are shorter, and weaker, so the batteries start to sulfate from over-discharge if you don't keep them topped off -- more generator time. During some months we have a regular parade of people bringing their generators in to town for service.

    Also understand that this special class of individualist burns wood for heat, and owns no air conditioner. The solar powers the well and the freezer, and not much else. Most of the power they use is delivered in the form of wood and propane.
    --
    Liberty you never use is liberty you lose.
  19. Honda by Ogive17 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Honda has been develloping CIGS technology for a few years now. I believe they are already selling these type of solar panels in Japan. http://world.honda.com/news/2005/c051219.html

    --
    "Action without philosophy is a lethal weapon; philosophy without action is worthless."
  20. Corrections by abramsh · · Score: 5, Informative
    • They are not selling at $1/watt, that is their goal. They would be selling at $2.12/watt, but they are sold out for the next 18 months.
    • They are not backed by Google, they are partially backed by some of the Google founders.

  21. Springfield runs on coal? by andrewd18 · · Score: 2, Funny

    Here in Springfield, our power plant runs on coal.
    I could have sworn Springfield had a nuclear power plant...
  22. Watt, Watt Hour? by WPIDalamar · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I'm confused by the $1 per watt and "cheaper than coal"...

    Please correct me if I'm wrong here, but I thought a watt was a measure of capacity whereas a watt-hour was what we actually paid for from our electric company as a measure of (what? power? energy?)... So a watt-hour is something like "continuously using one watt for one hour".

    For solar, there's no fuel cost. So the $1 gets you a "perpetual" 1 watt. If it lasted forever (which it won't), that'd be an infinite amount of watt-hours.

    But coal plants have a fuel cost. So $1 only gets them so much coal, and only so many watt-hours.

    Or is that comparing the cost of building a coal plant to building solar panels? Or is it some kind of TCO figure?

  23. Re:Watts per meter of earth by giafly · · Score: 2, Informative

    Even if you covered the whole earth with solar panels, it would not supply the power that is currently used.
    Yes it would, 1000 times over. There is plenty of renewable energy, the issue is cost, which is where these cells come in. "The total solar energy available to the earth is approximately 3850 zettajoules (ZJ) per year ... Worldwide energy consumption was 0.471 ZJ in 2004." - Solar Energy
    --
    Reduce, reuse, cycle
  24. Re:Why the govt is helping more by Slugster · · Score: 2, Informative

    If the fiscal emergency starting on 01 Jan 2008 gets ugly enough (and there are a lot of people who think it will) we may well see solar subsidies get shelved, at least for a couple years. If to keep daily operations going the state government is pulling budget money from schools, do you think they'll still be helping homeowners buy solar panels?

    ....

    In a way, this is come full-circle hasn't it?
    People in california getting government subsidies to buy solar systems that aren't really economical, and the subsidies were based on property tax rates that were based on inflated property values, driven by speculators with bad loans--that were not really economical either.
    ~

  25. Re:DOH! by Lumpy · · Score: 2, Informative

    No. my syncing inverter cost me $3500.00 it doesn't do the FUD of "electrocuting the lineman" like people enjoy using out there. No Line tied inverters were capable of doing that for over 15 years now.

    $3500 syncing inverter + $2000.00 of PV array at those prices = a significant savings and almost ZERO maintaince costs or time. Washing them off twice a year with a hose is plenty. and my array never had to have the snow removed. what idiot leaves the PV array tilted that high in winter?

    --
    Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
  26. Re:"Charity" by Bryansix · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I don't donate to people who advertise on TV. They waste way too much money. I use http://www.charitynavigator.org/ to find charities that operate effeciently. In addition I never said to send all your money to Africa. I prefer Americares which helps people here in the USA and abroad. They also operate with some 98% effeciency or something close to that.

  27. Re:How practical or...rather is it some scam? by Rei · · Score: 2, Informative

    You read wrong. Those are the first three panels that they consider to be part of their full production run, so they're being treated as having historic value and are not just being sold along with the others. The first they're keeping, the second is being auctioned for charity, and the third was donated to a tech museum. After that, panels have been going to Germany, and they just got their first check for them. Before that, they had been producing panels on their line, but it was an incomplete line and the panels were being used for testing.

    --
    We should start dealing in those black-market beagles.
  28. Re:Why the govt is helping more by harmanjd · · Score: 2, Insightful

    If this was subsidized for the average household, it would be a bane for california.

    Fixed your spelling for you.

    People would be better of with less taxes so that they could buy these things rather than giving the money to the gov't to get it back as subsidies.