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The Economist's Technology Predictions For 2008
mrcgran notes an article in The Economist with three technology predictions for 2008. Normally they're pretty good on technology, and the predictions seem sound enough, but the article contains a couple of bloopers. "1. Surfing will slow: The internet is not about to grind to a halt, but as more and more users clamber aboard to download music, video clips and games... surfing the web is going to be more like traveling the highways at holiday time. You'll get there, eventually, but the going won't be great. 2. Surfing will detach: Internet will doubtless be as popular among mobile-internet surfers as among their sedentary cousins. 3. Surfing — and everything else computer-related — will open: Rejoice: the embrace of 'openness' by firms that have grown fat on closed, proprietary technology is something we'll see more of in 2008... Since the verdict against SCO, Linux has swiftly become popular in small businesses and the home, largely the doing of Ubuntu 7.10. And because it is free, Linux become the operating system of choice for low-end PCs. Neither Microsoft nor Apple can compete at the new price points being plumbed by companies looking to cut costs."
2008 will be the year of Linux on the desktop?
From TFA: "The biggest road-hog remains spam (unsolicited e-mail), which accounts for 90% of traffic on the internet."
Can anyone verify that number? It seems grotesquely inflated...
Well another year gone and no flying cars (at least none I can afford.) I was promised flying cars by this time, can't they at least get me a rocket pack:)
Ok, kidding aside. The statement about Linux gaining some ground is not totally out of line (although i don't think MS or Apple are quaking in their boots.) I have noticed a higher than normal percentage of people that hang out at our local library and browse the internet on a laptop all day using some variety of Linux. I have asked a few of them why they are using it and the main answer does seem to be that it is free and "surfs" the interwebs.
nuff said!
Bruno Costa
As more and more high-bandwidth content traverses the net, in the absense of development of new infrastructure, ISPs and backbone routing providers will arbitrarily throttle "intensive content" to allow other content through. Guess what type traffic to throttle is on the top of the list?
Article writer says there is an Exchange replacement with Linux now? Not as far as I can tell. While Linux is a fair match for any desktop now and in some cases better with indeed the huge array of free software that does make it quite possible to run a fully open source system (like mine, I'm a recent Unbuntu convert after Vista just bit me too many times for my liking) the one real area that Linux has a problem is Exchange and Windows server are pretty good combination when you configure them correctly - dont fucking tell me Exchange is lousy, you probably just don't know what your doing. Serious overkill of course but it is a good combination.
So where is this mythical replacement I just read about? Would someone like to point it out for me? And yes I would love a true Exchange replacement and also in truth Outlook has become quite a good application, which open source alternatives do have some problems matching, altho I'll be honest and say that I haven't looked too closely because Outlook has done exactly what I want (And And I can access Outloook via Terminal Services, another reasonable but seriously pricey thing that is very useful. Pity it's so fuckign expensive!). Exchange replacement on the other hand, been looking and not liking what I see.
One thing I am confident about is that Ubuntu has moved so fast in the last two years with such a great load of development work, it proves Open Source very viable and if there is no genuine Exchange replacement now.... well who knows in a year's time? Maybe I just blinked and missed it?
How true were the predictions for 2007?
Give the prognosticators the chance to spin to seem brilliant and correct!
The only thing new in this world is the history that you don't know.[Harry Truman]
For something like this to happen, there should be at least an indicator of things to come, as some people having trouble with http access in any parts of the world. noone is experiencing this. additionally the only problem users are experiencing is due to some isps taking on the duty of being the internet police upon themselves and HAMPERING users.
economist have put piece of crap articles before. but lately, the number and frequency of such crap have started to increase.
Read radical news here
As usual with these predictions, they seem to think of 2008 as some far future. For example, Linux getting much more common on the desktop won't just take "Your correspondent has been happily using Gutsy Gibbon on a ten-year-old desktop with only 128 megabytes of RAM and a tiny 10 gigabyte hard-drive" because people don't care much for running computers with 10 GB drives and 128 MB RAM. What rather makes a difference is what operating systems new PC's use to come with and how well marketed this OS is. I don't really see a paradigm shift here among OEM's and what's still often a grass roots movement of Linux (noticeable especially when Ubuntu of all distros is the most popular on desktops, and not Novell's distro, etc). It's interesting to see Linux getting increasingly more interesting for desktop use, but far more still needs to happen than what I think can take place in 2008 before "Surfing--and everything else computer-related--will open" will happen.
Beware: In C++, your friends can see your privates!
I am a huge fan of The Economist - for the daily gripes on slashdot, digg, and other websites about the pap that is journalism today, the paper has been a bastion of good writing and in depth coverage, even when I don't agree with the editorial/political stances. That said, I read this article earlier today (students are on winter break but I'm stuck coming into the office with nothing to do!) and it seemed like a mix of the obvious (more user created content? You don't say!) and the unlikely - when net speed starts becoming a customer service issue, you can bet the ISPs will get on board. American ISPs and those running the infrastructure have been dragging their feet in the U.S., while in Asia you can get really high speed internet (anywhere from DSL to fiber) even in the boondocks (believe me, I live in the middle of nowhere and could have gotten fiber).
The second prediction seems likely, though again, the U.S. is drawing up the rear. I know people here (Japan) that interact with the Internet solely or primarily through their mobile phone (not to mention things like GPS, and broadcast TV I got on a phone that cost less than $100 US). I hope Google does lead the way on this front next year, though I feel like we're going to have another year of baby steps unless Apple or Google or someone else with some clout decides to turn the American cell phone market on it's musty, stagnant head.
The third prediction seems very pie in the sky. I've used Windows, Linux, and OS X extensively, and I think (for my needs) OS X best matches my needs. I think there's a level of polish that is very difficult to for Linux to achieve in relation to the power home user. Ubuntu has probably got almost easy enough for the average user, if you disregard games and things. Linux certainly has a place as a great developer tool, server OS, and power-power user OS, but the article seems to imply that Linux is set to take over the entire PC world in 2008. I've heard that it's "the year of desktop Linux" since Redhat 5 and experience has taught me to wait for actual proof on that claim.
"There is no time, sir, at which ties do not matter," Jeeves, (Jeeves and the Impending Doom)
giving will become more important than getting for some. others will change due to having no other choice. see you there?
myminicity link, again. how do these people have so much time on their hands?!
--your friendly neighborhood anti-troll
"Neither Microsoft nor Apple can compete at the new price points being plumbed by companies looking to cut costs." I'm pretty sure the first of those two could compete at a low price point for a VERY long time... Microsoft could (and possibly will) give away Windows XP for the OLPC to all the developing countries, just to make sure the first OS kids associate with computers is "Windows". As for the second, Apple needn't compete at the low price point, their money is made on premium computers, not dirt cheap PC's you can pickup at your local supermarket. Even so, Apple's not so unlike Microsoft at the core, Jobs offered OS X for the OLPC too. Anyway, time will tell who exploits the children of the third world countries for their own agendas.
No, but I did throw granola at a deaf person once
Can't seem to find their 2007 predictions online... how convenient.
ya didn't save a copy?
,-- disappearing!!
web pages, particularly interesting ones, have a bad habit of
1. Internet is NOT going to slow down. New algorithms will make it even faster.
2. Linux is not the future.
Sagara
I predict in 2008 I will not be getting my tech predictions form the Economist. Although they have few valid points, their conclusions seem detached from reality. The whole article feels like a bunch of half truths and crappy conclusions. Maybe they want to move the technology forward, to be honest doesn't the article feel like a wish-list? Maybe the internet infrastructure needs updating. Maybe they want the type of portable internet that Japan has. Maybe they see that with the EEE PC, this year there is a true market for Linux PCs on the consumer level. Still, I think I can make 3 predictions that are much more likely and important.
/. tearing apart my perditions, and I will respond to valid criticisms.
1. WiMax will work pretty much as advertised, and some city in the world will get municipal WiMax, and we will make a note: Huge Success. Also, where can I read a real world test of WiMax? I have great hopes for that technology, but it has been vapor ware for so long I am worried it has a horrible flaw.
2. Google's bids for the 700mhz spectrum will pressure the ISP and cellphone companies to open their networks and start charing per kilobyte. Seriously, it's 2008, why are we paying flat rates for a service that is cost bound by bandwidth? Why do we pay 10 cents for a text message? You should pay for what you use. The internet would be a lot more expensive for me if they did this (thanx bittorrent) but I realize that it is the only logical choice in the medium to long run. The funny part is that Google will initiate this change weather or not they get in the market, just the threat will be enough.
3. iPhone-like devices will flood the market, and sell better than all perditions. They will be the Wii of 2008. I know I'm going to attract so much flame for this but here it goes anyways: Steve Jobs knows what the people want and has always been ahead of trends. He saw the value of the PC, the mouse (everyone did but he was one of the first), wireless internet and hard drive MP3 players, way before anyone of it became mainstream. The iPhone is a special case because it instantly became mainstream, the market was ready for this device, but the providers were not. As perditions 1 and 2 flesh out, the demand for an all in one device like this will explode.
I look forward to all of you on
Haven't they been predicting a Lunix victory on the desktop since... well, since the very beginning of Lunix?
Also, if any business things using Teh Lunix is going to cost less, they obviously have never tested it. Your support costs skyrocket with Teh Lunix. Just ask the City of Munich how good their Lunix total conversion has gone. Seeing as how 80% of their desktops are running Windows in a VM, the only thing Lunix has added is a needless layer of complexity. Oh, and redundancy of costs, but the highly paid consultants they have providing support aren't complaining.
What I find sad every year is that people's "predictions" always end up as more of a wish list than predictions. My prediction is that the number of Lunix users remains essentially flat, just like it has for the past decade. Even Apple's "Switch" campaign didn't really result in any new users... and their disasterous "Leoptard: It Just Works" campaign sure didn't help people think Apple was any better.
The problem Lunix and Apple are running in to is that, at the end of the day, 99% of people don't care, and don't view their operating system as an expression of their lifestyle. They just want to sit down at their computer and do stuff- they've spent a decade becoming marginally proficient with Windows. None of them look forward to spending the next decade becoming marginally proficient with a different operating system.
You meant "surfing will CONTINUE to slow".
I do not believe in karma. "Funny"=-6. Do good and forbid evil. Yours, Oft-Offtopic Flamebaiting Troll.
1. The Intertubes is gonna fill up. Time for a tiered Interweb.
3. The Loonix is a competitor to Microsoft now, so you can stop hitting them with a hammer, EU.
We have the perfect Unix based desktop already and it's called Mac OS. It's not free but it's better than any of the crap Linux ppl put out. Linux found it's place as great server software and that's where it will remain. The problem with Linux was also it's strength, the fact that ppl can make their own 'version' of linux distro. The problem is that the community is so fragmented that the uniting factor is going to be Microsoft going forward, not necessarily bc it's hands down the best but bc it's united. Linux ppl give up on ppl throwing away their Windows OS for Linux. The only thing that can really help Linux is the growing independence from OS apps and the web is becoming more the one app that we all use. That makes it possible to use the same apps no matter what OS, but again we have our OS ppl it's Mac! Get one! -J
The "universal" desktop is a dead end, as people are moving towards a combination of online services, very smart gadgets and virtualized personal appliances. The Linux kernel, though, will probably play a significant, if not preeminent, part in this future.
See http://idling.atadon.dk/2007/12/vista-blessing.html for some elaborations on this subject (my own blog).
For the sufficiently clueless, even trivial applications of common sense are indistinguishable from wisdom
==>"the market was ready for this device, but the providers were not"
a most excellent observation!
large organizations tend to stagnate and respond poorly to sea changes in the market
this opens the door for the up-start:
the large organization can ignore the upstart and gradually go obsolete and fade into history
or
begin production of a competitive offering
or
send goons out to quash the competition
all of these methods are tried and true
~*~
we have a couple products right now that are setting ducks
~ Blink clocks that have to be reset manually all the time
~ virus-vulnerable computer software
This is why we need a -1 Spam mod. Troll and flamebait just doesn't cut it. This would apply to GNAA and 'slashdot suxorz' AC posts, as that is what they truly are.
Linux, you magnificent bastard, I read the fucking manual!
my co-worker and I recently downloaded Solaris/86 and brought it up on VM/ware
this is a pretty darn good looking system
i have an extra 2GHZ machine I want to load with that shortly but it looks to be this will be a very viable alternative
all that needs to happen is simple: the first guy to offer a system that can be guaranteed immune to virus is gonna take over the market in a very short time
all that needs to be done is to refuse to execute unknown programs and to dis-allow unknown software updates
the later of course means you take the box offline and log on as root to update software. otherwise software updates are not allowed when you are online and logged on as user.
I think A/C is actually "anyone"
a practice the board administrator ought not to allow
Windows is not the dominant OS on the internet. Until then, expect loads more spam from the viruses on Windows.
The following is my letter to the editors of The Economist:
----
To: letters@economist.com
There are many mistakes in the section about "SCO."
>>The trend toward openness has been given added impetus by the recent collapse of the legal battles brought by SCO, a software developer. Formerly known as Santa Cruz Operations, the firm bought the Unix operating system and core technology in 1995 from Novell (which, in turn, had bought it from its original developer, AT&T). >Short of cash, SCO initiated a series of lawsuits against companies developing Linux software, claiming it contained chunks of copyrighted Unix code. Pressured by worried customers fearing prosecution, a handful of Linux distributors settled with SCO just to stay in business.>But IBM, which uses Linux, was having none of it, and fought the firm through the courts until it won.
IBM did not just decide to fight TSG. TSG sued IBM. Although TSG has filed chapter 11, the case is not over.
Please check your facts on this.
I want my sexbot! I don't want a cute dog robot, I don't want a dinosaur robot, what, is there no market for sexbots?
Loose lips lose spit.
More than that, I don't understand why completely useless posts can't be deleted. I know the philosophy is that "why post if it can't be permanent?" but that's more about forcing people to THINK before they post. That implies relevancy to said posts, and that's simply not the case anymore. If a post is simply spam or something completely unrelated to the topic, how is it relevant, and moreso, how does it add to the conversation? I think a lot of people would stop wasting their time if there were a little more moderation than simply a label, but hey, that's just one man's opinions.
BTW, I know this will be modded off-topic but at the same time: is it really...?
A few lottery balls ought to unclog the tubes.
1)The biggest road-hog remains spam (unsolicited e-mail), which accounts for 90% of traffic on the internet.
Spam does *NOT* constitute 90% of all internet traffic. It constitutes 90% of all emails. At 10-to-15 kbytes each, they're not exactly overwhelming the internet. I should also point out that an email with multiple recipients at the same ISP goes as one email, and is exploded into multiple copies at the receiving ISP. This reduces the internet traffic even more. The biggest single traffic use is bittorrent and friends. Streaming video and legit online/download sales of movies might challenge it in future.
2) Soon, portable media-players, personal navigators, digital cameras, DVD players, flat-panel TV sets, and even mobile phones won't be able to function properly without access to the internet.
OMFG, NNNNNNNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! The only way you'll see that is if linux is outlawed, and DRM-crippled computers/mediaplayers won't function without a live connection to the mothership.
3) Apple's initial response was to attempt a heavy-handed crackdown. But then a court decision in Germany forced its local carrier to unlock all iPhones sold there. Good news for iPhone owners everywhere: a flood of third-party applications is now underway.
The decision was overturned on appeal three weeks ago.
4)The trend toward openness has been given added impetus by the recent collapse of the legal battles brought by SCO, a software developer. Formerly known as Santa Cruz Operations, the firm bought the Unix operating system and core technology in 1995 from Novell (which, in turn, had bought it from its original developer, AT&T).
Dear Economist, please hire Dan Lyons. He's a helluva lot more knowledgable about the SCOX case than you are. Sad, isn't it? Santa Cruz Operations sold their Unix distribution business to Caldera, who later renamed themselves The SCO Group and started trying to shake down linux users.
5)Pressured by worried customers fearing prosecution, a handful of Linux distributors settled with SCO just to stay in business.
NO. A handful of firms that use linux in their business signed SCOSource licences. None of these firms were linux distributors. The reporter might be confusing the SCOSource licence, with Microsoft's FUD licence, which a few distributors actually have signed.
And fer-cryin-out-loud, please knock off this bit about "The Year Of The Linux Desktop". Linux is growing slowly, relative to the overall market. It will overtake Apple, and eventually Windows. But it will be a long slow grind. What might happen is that one year people will stop counting sales (obviously $0 even for millions of free copies) and start counting desktops. Much to the establishment's surprise, they'll discover that there's a helluva lot more linux desktops than they expected.
I'm not repeating myself
I'm an X window user; I'm an ex-Windows user
The essential flaw to your plan is that if useless posts can be deleted so can useful posts. So can politically awkward posts. Moderation largely works ok there are times when there is extremely partisan moderation but i think we can live with that.
The mini-city spam links are extremely annoying however if nothing gets said in a post of interest surely the link provided isn't going to be worth clicking on either. no ?
My gut instinct is a spam moderation could be a good thing, however what constitutes spam. Is it spam if a related competing product or service is posted as a link?
One mans spam is anothers working lunch. Slashdot posters have put me on to interesting things as well as quite a few which i wish i'd never clicked.
I think 'trash' and 'noise' are better moderation names with 0 movement by default. Individual users will be able to set their own rating for 'trash' and 'noise' I'd make these two mods cost less maybe half a mod point. for sure it's well past time for slashdots moderation system to be upgraded.
Blarney Quality Restaurant, Plants
Well merry christmas to you too, gosh we ACs are thoughtful.
What will happen in 2008? I mean there is nothing new really on the horizon as far as I can tell:
We've seen many things happen in the past 10 to 15 years
1. Revolution in digital music.
2. Unification of devices(finished with Apple iPhone)
3. New web technologies things like Ruby, J2EE, ASP.NET and PHP
4. A Web 2 woe
5. XML
6. RSS
7. Podcasts
8. Blogs
9. Forums
10. Office applications
11. Accounting software
12. Database software( MySql, MS SQL, Oracle)
13. wikipedia and other online research tools like answers.com
14. Open source software
What will be the next big thing? Can you think of anything!!!
What is left on my computer that hasn't already been done or demonstrated?
This is why when your computer breaks, there's a technician that fixes it, not an economist.
The internet will slow down.... assuming traffic demand rises and ISP's don't bother upgrading their infrastructure.
Maybe, just maybe, ISPs might be putting in more and fatter links? But I guess they wouldn't have thought about that, those plucky tech savvy economists, they know there's only a series of tubes and you can't have more tubes.
Realistically this might be a very lame push by the anti-neutrality groups furthering the case for "premium" internet pricing.
I am government man, come from the government. The government has sent me. -- G.I.R.
When non-technologists write about technology....
They're so CUTE!
The Economist puts random words in random order:
Technology in 2008... Three fearless predictions...
1. Surfing will slow
Peering into [our] crystal ball, the one thing we can predict with at least some certainty is that 2008 will be the year we stop taking access to the internet for granted. The internet is not about to grind to a halt, but as more and more users clamber aboard to download music, video clips and games while communicating incessantly by e-mail, chat and instant messaging, the information superhighway sometimes crawls with bumper-to-bumper traffic.
First, 1994 is calling and wants its metaphors back.
Second, got any data to support that?
The biggest road-hog remains spam (unsolicited e-mail), which accounts for 90% of traffic on the internet.
OK, that's simply not true.
For a start, millions of gadgets are joining the human hordes. Any gizmo worth its silicon these days has its own internet connection--so it can update itself automatically, communicate autonomously with other digital species, and anticipate its user's every whim.
Soon, portable media-players, personal navigators, digital cameras, DVD players, flat-panel TV sets, and even mobile phones won't be able to function properly without access to the internet. Expect even digital picture frames to have a WiFi connection so they can grab the latest photos from Flickr.
And you expect this activity, in 2008, to add how much incremental traffic to the Internet?
Oh, you have no data?
[Blather about user-generated content and peer-to-peer removed.]
The result is a gridlock. That the telephone companies are running out of bandwidth can be seen from their equipment orders.
Oh, sounds like you have some data!
Cisco, the leading supplier of core routers used to direct traffic over the internet's backbone, has just had another bumper quarter, with net income up 37% over the same period a year ago. Juniper Networks, another information-technology firm, did even better. Both companies credit the proliferation of social networks, the craze for internet searching, multimedia downloading, and the widespread adoption of P2P sharing for the surge in new business.
Interesting! The only (correct) data you have is that carriers are rapidly upgrading their backbones. Isn't that an indicator that they're expanding the amount of available bandwidth to prevent your scenario from happening?
While major internet service providers like AT&T, Verizon and Comcast all plan to upgrade their backbones, it will be a year or two before improvements begin to show. By then, internet television will be in full bloom, spammers will have multiplied ten-fold, WiFi will be embedded in every moving object, and users will be screaming for yet more capacity.
In the meantime, accept that surfing the web is going to be more like travelling the highways at holiday time. You'll get there, eventually, but the going won't be great.
We'll check back in with the Economist in 365 days and see how that prediction turns out.
On to prediction #2, which is much easier to analyze:
2. Surfing will detach
Earlier this month, Google bid for the most desirable chunk (known as C-block) of the 700-megahertz wireless spectrum being auctioned off by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in late January 2008.
OK, first, that's not true. Google hasn't bid yet -- they have just applied to bid. We don't yet know whether or not they'll bid.
Having established their credibility on the topic in th