IBM's Five Predictions for the Future
StonyandCher writes "IBM has released its second annual set of 'Next Five in Five' predictions. The company's crystal ball also revealed that the long-simmering trend toward "smart energy" devices will proliferate wildly. "Dishwashers, air conditioners, house lights, and more will be connected directly to a 'smart' electric grid, making it possible to turn them on and off using your cell phone or any Web browser," a company statement asserts."
These new web controllable appliances will be vulnerable to exploits, resulting in someone's house burning down a house after a hacker turns on their stove.
Next-generation spam:
Nice house you've got there. Wouldn't it be sad if all the appliances suddenly went wild?
Terrorists can't threaten a country's freedom and democracy. Only lawmakers and voters can do that.
Any time anyone says that I can do something like power down appliances from my browser, I don't buy it. Either my appliances should be smart enough to power down on their own, or they should send me email telling me that it's time to shut them down. Polling for power consumption through a web site is pretty much a worthless idea.
If you don't want crime to pay, let the government run it.
Yay for the editors linking to a blog ...that links to IBM's actual site.
IBM Reveals Five Innovations that Will Change Our Lives Over the Next Five Years
http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/22683.wss
Who's going to provide this functionality, for that matter? Will we end up with a dozen mutually incompatible systems, and what happens when we want to upgrade what's already been half installed?
While these "smart grids" and "smart phones" and "smart appliances" are getting smarter, the idiot behind the wheel or at the keyboard is getting dumber and more pampered by the minute. We're getting so sheltered and pussywhipped that we won't be able to function as an independent species within a few decades. And no, I didn't read TFA, I'm too smart for that.
It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong.
The company said that during the next five years, a "wave of connectivity" between vehicles and roadways will help keep traffic flowing smoothly
Yeah the theoretical technology might exist, but major improvements to the national infrastructure will take decades to implement.
"Dishwashers, air conditioners, house lights, and more will be connected directly to a 'smart' electric grid,
Again this require a major improvement to parts of the infrastructure. On top of that, my parents already own all the appliances they want, they will not likely get many new ones anytime in the next five years. Maybe an HDTV.
For example, phones will enable users to snap a photo of an article of clothing, pull in results from the Web about the brand and where to buy it, and then render the garment on top of a 3-D image of the user, IBM said.
Many stores I have been in do not let you photograph the merchandise, if you can suddenly comparison shop the goods in any given store I can only see that policy getting stronger.
This article sounds more like "The World of Tomorrow" than something I would expect out of a respected technology company.
We are all just people.
So, according to IBM, there will be demand for how many computers? seven or eight?
sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
I have no doubt that some of these things will come to pass, but within 5 years? Nope, sorry.
1. We'll be able to track produce, and every detail of it of where it's been, etc. - This would require a database and some ID tag (likely RFID) or an Read/Write tag and no database. Currently these are too expensive to have seen widespread use in larger goods, and despite predictions that they're just around the corner, they've been unable to lower the price past a certain point. RFID will happen, but it won't happen this fast.
2. Smart Networks - This requires a significant investment in infrastructure, and it would seem, smart cars. This is something that may start within 5 years, but only cars made past a certain date will actually be 'smart', and until a certain percentage is 'smart' there's not much use for the system (possibly reducing the motivation for investment in the non-car infrastructure, though GPS/Onstar type services may provide enough incentive. Still it won't be here in 5 years.
3. Cell phones - Stupid example. I don't need to know what clothing will look like on me in 3d, and this seems like an application that would be horrible on cell phones, even with advances in computer technology. It MIGHT happen in Asian countries, as they tend to have more advanced cell phones and seem to enjoy odd tech things that don't catch on well in the US (vending machines, etc)
4. Smart Devices are over-rated. Until you can easily access your computer from your cell phone, this won't be down the road 5 years. Yes I'm sure you can do it, but it's not common, certainly not on non-smart phones.
5. Doctors - It'll happen, medicine will advance, but i don't think we'll see any amazing changes. Admittedly I know little about this field, but I haven't heard anything huge inventions lately that will revolutionize the field.
I am not an expert. If I am misled in something, please correct me.
http://www.ibm.com/ibm/ideasfromibm/us/five_in_five/010807/index.shtml
When I moderate, I only use "-1, Overrated". That way, I never get meta-moderated!
..spare me this drivel.
somebody please give me an example of why I should ever want to control my dishwasher from my phone or my web browser.
the only intelligence I want in my gadgets it on the lines of smart machines that can detect the load and vary the power consumption and resource usage accordingly. possibly the only interaction I would want is a little minimalist chime to alert me that the cycle or current operation has finished and some human interaction is needed.
*everything* else should work behind the scenes to my benefit to save power or alert me when the washing powder is running low.
interaction by web browser? what utter rot. I would say "whatever next, a fridge with a built in web browser?" but I remember talk of such stuff a few years ago...
I agree entirely. If I have to tell my appliances how to behave, then it is /I/ who am smart, not the appliance.
Smart would be if I set a monthly power budget and all my appliances figure out together how to best achieve their jobs within that budget.
A work that expires before its copyright never enters the public domain and thus enjoys eternal copyright protection.
I don't think there will be that much interest in smart appliances like they describe. I think this is a technological path to consider, but it will be over ruled by the fact that we, as a planet, are running out of per capita energy.
We may be able to create a lot of energy, but the per capita demand worldwide is growing such that Americans (who consume more energy per capita) will experience a severe energy shortage and as such, the focus will not be on more appliances that are smart and therefore have a passive load on the household grid, but focus on appliances that actually stop using all electricity when you turn them off. Many don't these days because of the hot start design features.
For the rest of this decade the US will experience energy shortages in terms of higher gasoline prices, higher heating gas prices, and higher electricity prices (and summer shortages). This will force us to reconsider a lot of the appliances that we already have and re-prioritize what we want in future appliances.
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
Does anybody know whether it's going to be compatible with RFC 3251 Electricity over IP?
Anybody wanting to develop a smart electricity grid should take a look at that document, includes lots of information about hazardous voltage drops and other pitfalls that can be avoided.
"Dishwashers, air conditioners, house lights, and more will be connected directly to a 'smart' electric grid, making it possible to turn them on and off using your cell phone or any Web browser,"
If I am out...why in the hell do I want to take time to manage all my household appliances? I am 'out' for a reason. Presumably to have fun. Other than that, I am at home or work.
Heat and A/C? Nope, sorry. Either maintain a constant temp, or follow the damn program I already gave you.
Dishwasher? Oh please. If it's full enough, I'll start it now. Empty it whenever. Or maybe I'll start it just before I go to bed.
House lights? Again...follow the (individual) timers, or just stay off. Simple, cheap, pretty foolproof.
What possibly would I need to change settings on if I am 'out'. About the only thing I can think of that I might want to alter is the TiVo settings. Which I can do already. And that is (for me) a non issue. In two(three?) years, I haven't found a need to do it once.
"smart energy" devices? I prefer "dumb" energy devices where they are really off instead of the standby crap they have now. Standby is mostly broken now anyways, the whole point of standby on TVs was that you could use your remote and open the TV and start channel surfing immediately. Now because everything is more complex I have to wait for my TV to "boot" up for a few seconds first. The only difference between this and having the TV starting from a "cold" start is that I waste energy when it's off.
for some functions, central heating being the main one. Setting off home early? Log in and get the place warmed up. Getting back late? Log in to postpone the warm up cycle. Go one step further and tie the location of your gps-enabled car / mobile phone / wristwatch etc to CH behaviour so as to have it off or frost proof setting when you're a long way away, to have it full on when you're in the house or on an established route such as commuting back from the office and drop to background heat at other times. Each person in the house would need the phone / wristwatch / implant though! And not much point in the summer. But it'd be useful for anyone who comes and goes at irregular times, who (therefore) can't program a timer to keep heating optimally efficient.
"Why didn't you power me down before you left? Do you think money grows on trees? When I was your age we shut off ALL appliances before leaving the house, by HAND! And another thing..."
Will producers make such information available? It shouldn't take a genius to answer this question.
Property is theft.
While often cited, it doesn't seem that Watson made that prediction. Apparently, the earliest known citation is a 1986 Usenet post. There aren't any speeches or documents of Watson's that contain this prediction. See the wikipedia article on Watson for more information. I have a biography of Watson, 'The Maverick and His Machine: Thomas Watson, Sr. and the Making of IBM', that also says there's no evidence he ever made that prediction.
he company said that during the next five years, a "wave of connectivity" between vehicles and roadways will help keep traffic flowing smoothly, drive down pollution and get you to your destination easier, "without the stress."
This will be accomplished through "intelligent" traffic systems that automatically adjust light patterns and shift traffic to alternative routes, as well as cars that exhibit "reflexes" thanks to communication with other vehicles and roadside sensors, according to IBM.
Utter and catastrophic bullshit. Those features MIGHT be available in 5 years, but the stupid bint up the street who just bought tha gas guzzling Caddilac SUV is NOT going to be getting one in five years. She will likely still be driving the gas guzzling POS Caddy. And I will DEFINITELY still be driving my Prius. And my brother is going tobe buying a new car next year, and it will likely be a used Ford. He ALWAYS buys used Fords.
Essentially, for that technology to have ANY penetration in 5 years, it needs to have been made available last year or the year before. It takes an average of 10 years to replace 75% of the car fleet. This does NOT bode well given the petroleum situation....
RS
Shoes for Industry. Shoes for the Dead.
I have a computer sitting at home hooked up to a stereo, with a webcam. I frequently remote desktop into it to retrieve some document or another. One day I got a diabolical plan, turned the webcam on and logged myself into two IM accounts, hooked up my microphone and started yelling "Here boy! Come here Sam (my dog's name)!", and laughed when my poor bewildered bullmastif showed up on a (very slowly refreshing) webcam wondering where the hell my voice was coming from.
The dude intently staring at his laptop saying "Here boy, come here!!" draws a lot of attention in a cafe, but it was worth it.
Why bother looking like a freak just to confuse a poor dog? Because I can!
I'm hopeless.
Smart homes with remotely controlled appliances have featured in predictions for about 20 years now. Always about 5 years out.
I predict they will remain in the prediction lists for the next 20 years.
Stop worrying about the risks of nuclear power and start worrying about the risks of not using nuclear power.
Connected together with a switch to turn them all off. Turn off the lights and TV in any room and look around at all the nice little glowing LEDs that are shining back at you. There's no f'n reason whatsoever for those things to still be consuming electricity, yet they run 24/7 whether they are "on" or not. Want to conserve energy? Fix that first and THEN deal with smart appliances.
Right now, the power companies predict usage, with little control, with smart energy, they can tune usage much more efficiently.
Storm