IBM's Five Predictions for the Future

StonyandCher writes "IBM has released its second annual set of 'Next Five in Five' predictions. The company's crystal ball also revealed that the long-simmering trend toward "smart energy" devices will proliferate wildly. "Dishwashers, air conditioners, house lights, and more will be connected directly to a 'smart' electric grid, making it possible to turn them on and off using your cell phone or any Web browser," a company statement asserts."

Comments

Spam

[QuickFox]

Next-generation spam:

Nice house you've got there. Wouldn't it be sad if all the appliances suddenly went wild?

Powering off automatically

[toddbu]

Any time anyone says that I can do something like power down appliances from my browser, I don't buy it. Either my appliances should be smart enough to power down on their own, or they should send me email telling me that it's time to shut them down. Polling for power consumption through a web site is pretty much a worthless idea.

Re:Powering off automatically

[walt-sjc]

Journalistic garbage is what it is.

This is not about controlling your dishwasher through a web browser. That's fucking stupid and everyone in the industry knows it's stupid. Unfortunately, things are dumbed down for the consumer to understand.

This is about automated energy management. Devices need to talk to each other and with the grid in order to be "smart". This allows energy suppliers and users to be able to manage / balance energy usage. But it's more than just energy usage - it's about devices that cooperate with each other. Your occupancy sensor works with the lighting and heating systems to keep people comfortable. They work with ambient light sensors and window blinds to keep the sun out when it is at a bad angle, or let let it in and power off / dim the overhead lights... You can come up with thousands of examples here...

Echelon in San Jose has been developing this technology for many years, as have others. It's secure and reliable. Hell - remote energy management has been desirable / SOP for at LEAST 15 years, where chain stores remote control heating / lighting from corporate headquarters. It's just that power-line network technology has gotten good and inexpensive enough to move into much smaller devices. No, this isn't X-10 crap, it uses 128 bit device ID's and is a full network protocol. I tossed all my X10 crap years ago as it was WAY too unreliable and devices were poor quality. Unfortunately, the good stuff hasn't really made it down to the consumer level yet.

Re:Powering off automatically

[tylernt]

However, a better solution than monitoring that through the web is to shut the damn valves at the hose connection (you're supposed to do that every time you finish washing clothes, the hoses are prone to failure if left under pressure, but nobody, including me, does that.)

They have hoses with integral valves now. There is a reducer in the washer end to restrict the flow, and a spring loaded valve in the supply side. If there is low flow, the safety valve is open (to allow the washer to operate). If there is high flow (burst hose), the valve closes, stopping the flood. Won't help you with a slow leak but it's still an improvement.

There are also electric models that sit between the washer and the outlet. When it senses a current draw from the washer, it opens the solenoids to allow the water to flow. If the washer is off, the solenoids snap shut. This is safer but of course much more expensive.

The actual article...

[Anonymous Coward]

Yay for the editors linking to a blog ...that links to IBM's actual site.

IBM Reveals Five Innovations that Will Change Our Lives Over the Next Five Years
http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/22683.wss

Every component smart, but one

[dotancohen]

While these "smart grids" and "smart phones" and "smart appliances" are getting smarter, the idiot behind the wheel or at the keyboard is getting dumber and more pampered by the minute. We're getting so sheltered and pussywhipped that we won't be able to function as an independent species within a few decades. And no, I didn't read TFA, I'm too smart for that.

Re:Every component smart, but one

[Unoti]

We're getting so sheltered and pussywhipped that we won't be able to function as an independent species within a few decades

You're probably right, but it's not really a bad thing. I can sure type faster and program computers better than my grandfather could. Don't think of humans in isolation. Think of them in combination with their technology. We may be wimpier in many ways compared to our ancestors. But if you make the comparison including our current technologies then we're advancing quite rapidly. We have longer life expectancy due to medical technology and better knowledge of health and nutrition. If you think of humans in a broad sense that includes knowledge and technology, then our progress as a race is stunning. We're better in countless ways now than we were just a short time ago, and getting better faster than we ever have before.

Re:Every component smart, but one

[Boronx]

Hello, human, your only advantage over other animals is technology, and it's always been that way.

Five years or decades?

[Original Replica]

The company said that during the next five years, a "wave of connectivity" between vehicles and roadways will help keep traffic flowing smoothly

Yeah the theoretical technology might exist, but major improvements to the national infrastructure will take decades to implement.

"Dishwashers, air conditioners, house lights, and more will be connected directly to a 'smart' electric grid,

Again this require a major improvement to parts of the infrastructure. On top of that, my parents already own all the appliances they want, they will not likely get many new ones anytime in the next five years. Maybe an HDTV.

For example, phones will enable users to snap a photo of an article of clothing, pull in results from the Web about the brand and where to buy it, and then render the garment on top of a 3-D image of the user, IBM said.

Many stores I have been in do not let you photograph the merchandise, if you can suddenly comparison shop the goods in any given store I can only see that policy getting stronger.

This article sounds more like "The World of Tomorrow" than something I would expect out of a respected technology company.

Re:Five years or decades?

[Grishnakh]

Agreed. They can't even get the lights timed properly where I live; it's unlikely that any vehicle/roadway interfacing will happen anytime soon.

I don't think it'll ever happen, for two possible reasons:

1) Traffic engineers are utterly incompetent, as a rule. (Any traffic engineers reading this? This means YOU! You suck!) I've never seen well-timed lights, in any American city I've lived in or visited, on either side of the continent. It's not that the technology doesn't exist; it does: sensor-based lights are all over the place, which can sense the amount of traffic. But do they put this to good use? Of course not. There actually used to be a time, before "smart lights", when traffic lights were timed in relation to each other, so drivers on a main thoroughfare could travel along at the speed limit, theoretically, and rarely have to stop for cross traffic. Then, they came along and put in "smart lights" so that we'd supposedly never stop for nonexistent cross-traffic, but instead, every time a single car pulls up, it throws off all the traffic on the main road. Again, complete incompetence on the part of the traffic engineers. They should have stuck with a system where the lights were timed in relation to each other, but the presence or absence of traffic on cross-streets merely modified this behavior to be more efficient, by adding or subtracting cycles for the cross-traffic. How hard is that? They've had decades to figure this out, and they haven't.

2) Traffic engineers might not be that bad, but they're implementing stupid rules required by local governments whose real interest is not traffic safety and efficiency, but rather revenue from traffic tickets. This is probably getting much worse due to modern "red-light cameras", which give tickets to drivers running red lights. Many people have noted that many lights, when they had these revenue generators installed, suddenly got MUCH shorter yellow lights, obviously in order to increase revenue. Of course, the traffic engineers are still to blame if they implement this; "I was just following orders" ceased to be an acceptable excuse at the Nuremburg Trials, after all, and since many people die at intersections each year, these engineers aren't just to blame for a lack of efficiency, but actual deaths, which in my view makes them eligible for the death penalty.

Re:Five years or decades?

[proudfoot]

http://xkcd.com/277/
Oh really. Tell me, what do you know about traffic?

How many computers?

[140Mandak262Jamuna]

So, according to IBM, there will be demand for how many computers? seven or eight?

Flying cars too!

[thanatos_x]

I have no doubt that some of these things will come to pass, but within 5 years? Nope, sorry.

1. We'll be able to track produce, and every detail of it of where it's been, etc. - This would require a database and some ID tag (likely RFID) or an Read/Write tag and no database. Currently these are too expensive to have seen widespread use in larger goods, and despite predictions that they're just around the corner, they've been unable to lower the price past a certain point. RFID will happen, but it won't happen this fast.

2. Smart Networks - This requires a significant investment in infrastructure, and it would seem, smart cars. This is something that may start within 5 years, but only cars made past a certain date will actually be 'smart', and until a certain percentage is 'smart' there's not much use for the system (possibly reducing the motivation for investment in the non-car infrastructure, though GPS/Onstar type services may provide enough incentive. Still it won't be here in 5 years.

3. Cell phones - Stupid example. I don't need to know what clothing will look like on me in 3d, and this seems like an application that would be horrible on cell phones, even with advances in computer technology. It MIGHT happen in Asian countries, as they tend to have more advanced cell phones and seem to enjoy odd tech things that don't catch on well in the US (vending machines, etc)

4. Smart Devices are over-rated. Until you can easily access your computer from your cell phone, this won't be down the road 5 years. Yes I'm sure you can do it, but it's not common, certainly not on non-smart phones.

5. Doctors - It'll happen, medicine will advance, but i don't think we'll see any amazing changes. Admittedly I know little about this field, but I haven't heard anything huge inventions lately that will revolutionize the field.

Last Year's Five in Five

[Darkforge]

Looks like they've got four more years to make these come true:
http://www.ibm.com/ibm/ideasfromibm/us/five_in_five/010807/index.shtml

• We will be able to access healthcare remotely, from just about anywhere in the world
  
• Real-time speech translation -- once a vision only in science fiction -- will become the norm
  
• There will be a 3-D Internet
  
• Technologies the size of a few atoms will address areas of environment importance
  
• Our mobile phones will come close to reading our minds
  

oh please...

[apodyopsis]

..spare me this drivel.

somebody please give me an example of why I should ever want to control my dishwasher from my phone or my web browser.

the only intelligence I want in my gadgets it on the lines of smart machines that can detect the load and vary the power consumption and resource usage accordingly. possibly the only interaction I would want is a little minimalist chime to alert me that the cycle or current operation has finished and some human interaction is needed.

*everything* else should work behind the scenes to my benefit to save power or alert me when the washing powder is running low.

interaction by web browser? what utter rot. I would say "whatever next, a fridge with a built in web browser?" but I remember talk of such stuff a few years ago...

Mod Parent Up

[maillemaker]

I agree entirely. If I have to tell my appliances how to behave, then it is /I/ who am smart, not the appliance.

Smart would be if I set a monthly power budget and all my appliances figure out together how to best achieve their jobs within that budget.

Re:Infrastructure, anyone?

[QuickFox]

Who's going to provide this functionality, for that matter? Let's hope it's not Microsoft, or rewiring the traffic lights won't be enough, they'll also need to add lamps — red to stop, yellow to pay attention, green to go ahead, and Blue Light Of Death on system crash.

Energy will be the next issue

[tacocat]

I don't think there will be that much interest in smart appliances like they describe. I think this is a technological path to consider, but it will be over ruled by the fact that we, as a planet, are running out of per capita energy.

We may be able to create a lot of energy, but the per capita demand worldwide is growing such that Americans (who consume more energy per capita) will experience a severe energy shortage and as such, the focus will not be on more appliances that are smart and therefore have a passive load on the household grid, but focus on appliances that actually stop using all electricity when you turn them off. Many don't these days because of the hot start design features.

For the rest of this decade the US will experience energy shortages in terms of higher gasoline prices, higher heating gas prices, and higher electricity prices (and summer shortages). This will force us to reconsider a lot of the appliances that we already have and re-prioritize what we want in future appliances.

Spanking New Technology

[psychicninja]

FTA:

In effect, doctor's will gain superpowers - technologies will allow them to gain x-ray like vision to view medical images; super sensitive hearing to find tiniest audio clue in your heart beat;

So... doctors will have the heretofore unheard of power of the X-Ray and stethoscope. Truly a new day is dawning!

Re:My first prediction

[RobertM1968]

These new web controllable appliances will be vulnerable to exploits, resulting in someone's house burning down a house after a hacker turns on their stove.

Perhaps - if they become commonplace. There (for many years) have been controllable "appliances"... this is just an expansion of something that already existed. With stuff from SmartHome or X10, one could already control lights, AC, heat, security systems (with "back-links" to lights, and other stuff), locks and certain appliances via the web (and of course from home computers and dedicated/semi-dedicated consoles). Dishwashers (washing machines, dryers, etc) are something not yet on the "total control" aspect of such products... but I dont even see a need for that other than the "because I can" factor... why load a dishwasher and then wait to get to work/a friend's to go online to tell it to turn on (again, other than the "because I can" factor)?

WHY??

[YrWrstNtmr]

"Dishwashers, air conditioners, house lights, and more will be connected directly to a 'smart' electric grid, making it possible to turn them on and off using your cell phone or any Web browser,"

If I am out...why in the hell do I want to take time to manage all my household appliances? I am 'out' for a reason. Presumably to have fun. Other than that, I am at home or work.

Heat and A/C? Nope, sorry. Either maintain a constant temp, or follow the damn program I already gave you.
Dishwasher? Oh please. If it's full enough, I'll start it now. Empty it whenever. Or maybe I'll start it just before I go to bed.
House lights? Again...follow the (individual) timers, or just stay off. Simple, cheap, pretty foolproof.

What possibly would I need to change settings on if I am 'out'. About the only thing I can think of that I might want to alter is the TiVo settings. Which I can do already. And that is (for me) a non issue. In two(three?) years, I haven't found a need to do it once.

No, this is good...

[ed 'g3']

for some functions, central heating being the main one. Setting off home early? Log in and get the place warmed up. Getting back late? Log in to postpone the warm up cycle. Go one step further and tie the location of your gps-enabled car / mobile phone / wristwatch etc to CH behaviour so as to have it off or frost proof setting when you're a long way away, to have it full on when you're in the house or on an established route such as commuting back from the office and drop to background heat at other times. Each person in the house would need the phone / wristwatch / implant though! And not much point in the summer. But it'd be useful for anyone who comes and goes at irregular times, who (therefore) can't program a timer to keep heating optimally efficient.

Appliance with N.A.G. Option

[raftpeople]

"Why didn't you power me down before you left? Do you think money grows on trees? When I was your age we shut off ALL appliances before leaving the house, by HAND! And another thing..."

Riiight

[mqduck]

Even the act of eating will take on new meaning, in IBM's view: "You will know everything from the climate and soil the food was grown in, to the pesticides and pollution it was exposed to, to the energy consumed to create the product, to the temperature and air quality of the shipping containers it traveled through on the way to your dinner table." Will such information increase sales or revenue to producers? No. Will it hurt? Quite possibly.
Will producers make such information available? It shouldn't take a genius to answer this question.

The "Because I Can" factor is powerful

[Almahtar]

I have a computer sitting at home hooked up to a stereo, with a webcam. I frequently remote desktop into it to retrieve some document or another. One day I got a diabolical plan, turned the webcam on and logged myself into two IM accounts, hooked up my microphone and started yelling "Here boy! Come here Sam (my dog's name)!", and laughed when my poor bewildered bullmastif showed up on a (very slowly refreshing) webcam wondering where the hell my voice was coming from.

The dude intently staring at his laptop saying "Here boy, come here!!" draws a lot of attention in a cafe, but it was worth it.

Why bother looking like a freak just to confuse a poor dog? Because I can!
I'm hopeless.

Going way past the X10 Concept.....

[tempest69]

The concept of remote activation is sorta primitive. The real concept of smart devices is about utilizing smart metered power. The concept is this.. The power company auctions off power in real time to devices which automatically bid for "cheap energy blocks" The cheap energy blocks never exceed the price of standard energy. This allows the power company to adjust load based on production from non-predictable sources. So when a windfarm starts going crazy with power, the air conditioner in your house can go full steam for quarter price. As the number of smart devices increases, the prices can auction to higher values. As smart devices get more vogue, we can rely on sporadic power generation more and more.

Right now, the power companies predict usage, with little control, with smart energy, they can tune usage much more efficiently.

Storm