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Is Open Source Recession Proof?
DaMan writes "ZDNet asks Is open source recession proof?
'So, how might a recession affect open source software? Well, first off, I think that any business model that relies on volunteers could certainly see interest decline if times get tough. There are a lot of businesses that rely on people working for them for free because they get a pay check somewhere else, and I think that a recession would make people question working without getting any dollars in return.'"
Do they think OSS has a problem with recessions? Quite the reverse.
I got nailed in the Bomb, like a lot of us. Went through 4 companies in 3 years, and only one of them still existed after I left it (for another 3 whole months). Leaves you with nothing but crap on your resume; can't even prove the companies existed, more less get a reference.
I got left with skills that no one wanted, and no money to buy professional tools to start my own business. So I turned to Open Source. I'd hardly used it to that point; hadn't had any real need. But the ability to churn out products using nothing but freely available tools put money in my pocket, let me undercut my competition, and basically saw me through a rough patch. I've never been as active in OSS development as I was in those days...It wasn't because I had so much free time, it was because I needed that stuff, and if it didn't exist, I damn well had to create it!
So they think OSS is something that comes out of people being well off? All of us volunteer because we're all so bored, and have so much money and free time that we just sit around coding things? Are they nuts? Did Linus start programming Linux because he was bored with working with all the fancy Unix code people were throwing at him? No! He started it because he couldn't afford the expensive stuff, so he damn well made his own. Did anyone pay him to do it? No! Did he end up making money off it none-the-less? Yes!
Far from being bad for OSS, recessions are GOOD for OSS. You lose your job, and freelance while looking for another one...What are you going to use? Companies have a need, and no budget to fill it with commercial software...What are they going to use? Sure, if you specialize in zillion dollar OSS deployments, you've got problems (problem #1: You're mythical), but the true strength of OSS isn't in giant deployments, but in filling in the gaps...When the gaps get bigger, there we are.
If you've got a track record of doing more with less, recessions are always a good time for you.
ad logicam Claiming a proposition is false because it was presented as the conclusion of a fallacious argument.
1) Employees of major corporations assigned to opensource could be laid off or reassigned to directly profitable projects.
2) People who work on opensource in their spare time could be laid off and
a) Be unable to buy computers, maintain an internet connection, etc.
b) OR... have lots of spare time and do a lot of cool stuff to build their resume.
3) Folks who are depressed are not every productive. In a deep recession there will be a lot of fear, anxiety, and depression.
4) Donations to opensource bandwidth, download sites, and so on could falter and lead to blackouts of key opensource resources.
She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
There are a lot of businesses that rely on people working for them for free because they get a pay check somewhere else, and I think that a recession would make people question working without getting any dollars in return.'
On the flip side of that, if you have a lot of unemployed coders who want to keep their skill-set up-to-date (as well as avoid a large gap in their work history), open source provides a way to do both.
If you can do anything besides just counting beans, and you stay out of debt, you are recession proof.
What?
If you are talking about the development and evangelization of Open Source, then I would say yes. People are going to volunteer regardless. However, when you are talking about companies that sell or service Open Source software, then I would say no...it is not recession-proof. Economics are economics, and money is the same everywhere. Where there is a crunch, money doesn't flow as freely, and both Open Source and proprietary models will suffer.
Now...had they have said "Is FREE software recession-proof" then I would say, "yes...it is."
I'm not a troll, but I play one on Slashdot.
What's the point of the original message? "You get less job opportunities from developing for OSS when there's little need for developers".
Ok. And if you're working on CSS? What's more likely, that some OSS goes "out of business" or your proprietary company? Like someone else has already posted, what is more likely to be used in times of little money, software to buy or software to take?
Not to mention that, well, when you have more spare time (because you're lacking a job), wouldn't it be a quite GOOD idea to develop some nifty piece of software, push it into OSS and find companies interested in using it AND hiring the guy who knows it best?
We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
Of course nobody wanted it that way. But when some Wall Street firms lost data centers and desktops, Sun, IBM, and HP couldn't make hardware fast enough. So, beige boxes all over the east ended up in ad-hoc data centers, running Linux or BSD. And surprise, they ran as well, often better than their predecessors.
Open Source is going to do well whenever IT can't pay a lot for software and has to stretch its budget. Good times might be worse for Open Source, but I don't see them being terrible for it.
Bruce
Bruce Perens.
Don't discount people who just deploy OSS for a living. I know a guy who probably hasn't contributed 10 lines of code over his career, but who is so effective at taking poorly documented OSS projects and making them function beautifully in commercial deployments...He makes a good living, evangelizes the hell out of OSS (he's a true believer), and drives money back into the projects.
Most critically of all, he has the ability to see the flaws, and to visualize the next step that would make the project into something awesome. People like that, who know the features that really need to exist in the project, are almost more important than the people who end up actually coding the feature in. I can do the code, but the spark of genius behind a really good feature...That's special.
ad logicam Claiming a proposition is false because it was presented as the conclusion of a fallacious argument.
Recessions aren't supposed to happen based on Keynesian theory since all the worlds' governments and their central banks have been creating credit in a rate almost never seen before on the global scale. Print money, create jobs, right? Of course, the reality is that the central banks have been creating credit for one specific reason: to transfer wealth from the poor and middle class to the bank-connected elites.
There is no recession -- it's just part of the cycle of credit expansion/contraction that occurs to regularly shift our future wealth to those who have been taking advantage of that credit creation since the 70s, if not earlier. Look at it this way: all that lovely money that was created via credit expansion, and then spent, still exists. If you took a $200,000 HELOC on your home that is now worth $100,000, you likely spent that $200,000 somewhere (Hummer, cruises, clothes, electronic gadgets, new porch, etc). The money didn't just cancel out the debt that was created -- it was spent, and it lined someone's pockets.
The wealthy have been hoarding money for decades. Stick it in the mattress, in the vault, anywhere but in a savings account or in the market where the money would stay in the economies, keeping them at least operating. Now, credit is tight, because those who have it don't want to risk letting the middle class earn it to invest it in their own wealth-growth schemes.
Open Source is likely the sector MOST hurt by a credit crunch. Those without a connection to the IP-monopolized software sector will have a tough time borrowing to develop new software, pay for payrolls, or expand their marketing budgets. They money exists, but it's not easily loaned out until the credit crunch creates a new legion of people who are desperate for a little more debt accessibility. The OSS community may not operate on debt, but I'd doubt it. Most people I know, including small business owners, wouldn't have a meal in their fridge if it wasn't for easy credit.
My business, which generally stays away from OSS, operates on a positive cashflow, paying dividends to its owners, who also operate on a positive cashflow. The software sectors that will stay afloat during a credit crunch are those who are cash positive, and are in no rush to spend it until there are deals to be had.
I can't wait for a big recession, or even a depression. I sat on the sidelines on home ownership for 3 years, and finally bought again this year (after selling 3 years ago at near peak) for 1X my annual income. Easy as pie. In terms of business, I know many little IT companies and marketing companies that are on the verge of falling apart. They have assets, and client books, that are worth significant prices, but since no one is spending right now, their value is dropping. Thankfully, those of us who saved instead of spent, and contracted instead of expanded during a bubble, will have cash that is worth MUCH more than it was worth 2 or 3 years ago.
So it isn't specific sectors that will get hurt or gain ground -- nearly everyone who existed with a negative cashflow or a debt-maintained business plan will get hurt. Their values will drop, and those who held cash or fully-owned assets (land, commercial property, gold, etc) will be ready to swoop in and pick up valuable assets at a deep discount.
Back in the dotcom/dotbomb days, I also stayed on the sidelines. All of my competitors were spinning "Y2K!!!" marketing garbage to clients, who spent lots of money on a non-issue. We, instead, told people it was a non-issue. We didn't go public, try to create useless software, or expand more than 10-15% per year in size. When the SHTF, there were MANY assets we picked up for pennies on the dollar when things exploded.
So if you're an OSS or a closed-source developer, and you're hurting, remember for the next time another bubble grows: stay out of it. Hold cash, pay off your debts faster than you think you should, and be ready for the mass price cuts on things you wanted to buy when you origi
Recession equals increase in unemployed programmers...
:P
Increase in unemployed programmers lead to an increase in free time available to programmers to work on open-source projects.
Thus recessions are a boon for open-source software. The bane of open source software is a good economy.
Sure it is... maybe this is a nice moment to remind everyone that the world is bigger than just the USA. There's other countries that will trive in spite of any recession in the USA.
There are loads of projects that are being run outside of the USA (Ubuntu etc.)
If an employer pays you to work on an open source project, but they never distribute that project since it is for in-house use, can you legally take your work with you when you go? Experience, sure they can't keep that, but the actual code, changes and fixes, would belong to the employer?
I only look human.
My mother is a halfling and my dad is an ogre, so that makes me an Ogreling
he doesn't know much about the OSS culture. He sees the business end, but does he know the "gift culture" OSS lives in? Yeah, developers do it for the bullet points on their CV, but also because they can. They develop because they can. Some of us see OSS as the utopia where free information exchange is happening and commerce is less important. I agree that smaller project might see volunteers dry up as they spend their time job seeking. I do not agree that hardware vendors will see a recession and stop Linux driver development. Do they make their money from drivers? Or do they need to support the growing numbers of Linux users in their customer base? Do developers of Linux drivers make OSS drivers? (*caugh* *ATI* *caugh*) Do those developers get paid or are they volunteer? Are all OSS developers volunteer? See - he doesn't seem to know that money can be made from open source. Just because I publish my code doesn't mean my customers can use it on their own. Otherwise, they might not have contracted me.
Power to the Penguin!