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Math on iPhones Just Doesn't Add Up?
Tech Dirt is reporting that recently announced numbers by Apple and AT&T suggest that there is a large gap (1.7 million) between the number of iPhones being sold and those being activated. Taking into account factors like the iPhone launching outside the US and a 20% estimate of people buying the iPhone just for the purposes of unlocking, there are still 700,000 iPhones unaccounted for. "[...] suggesting that they're sitting on store shelves, piling up as unsold inventory. That number suggests at least some gap between perceived demand and actual demand -- while also raising questions about how much effort it will take to eat through that inventory."
They all got blended:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qg1ckCkm8YI
So is it really more likely there are 700,000 mysteriously missing iPhones, or perhaps the number of people buying them to unlock is higher than they think?
Does the number of ATT activations also include the pre-paid plans, or just the contracts?
The pundits math doesn't line up. What's the reason? They don't know what the fuck they are talking about.
For example: "20% estimate of people buying the iPhone just for the purposes of unlocking, there are still 700,000 iPhones unaccounted for."
OK, so then I guess maybe the 20% estimate is wrong? Horrors.
What I do know for certain is that this discussion won't solve something that only Apple can answer.
Ironically, the word ironically is often used incorrectly.
Totally. Kim Jong Il got one, and now Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Osama Bin Laden are really jealous, to the point that it's threatening to completely disrupt the Axis of Evil. It doesn't help that Osama got a brown Zune for Christmas and now Kim Jong Il and Ahmadinejad are teasing him mercilessly about it.
Surely some small percentage of phones are being unlocked, but did you ever stop to think that maybe the numbers are off because AT&T hasn't reported yet how many iPhone subscribers there are for December/January and there were probably tens of thousands of iPhones purchased as Christmas gifts that sat under a tree and just barely got activated in the last couple of weeks?
"When the president does it, that means it's not illegal." - Richard M. Nixon
Service plans for the iPhone start at $59.99/mo, which is $39.99 for the voice line and $20 for data. I added another iPhone for my wife for another $20 (data plan).
Thumbs down on the blog link - the original CNet news story (link) is much more detailed and has this tidbit - Based on the number of "missing" iPhones, each of the 4,400 worldwide iPhone retailers "had more than 150 units of channel inventory at the beginning of this year" which sure sounds like they're counting them F.O.B. from Apple's warehouse door, not when it's actually sold to a consumer.
I went poking around AT&T's investor relations site, and it seems to me (though I didn't spend a whole lot of time there) that the 2 million number is the number of new AT&T customers who switched to AT&T wireless because of the iPhone. This does not count customers (such as myself) who kept my existing service but switched devices (in my case, from a Motorola RAZR to an iPhone).
If this is the case, it would explain a large amount of that gap.
I think part of the problem here is that the major media would like to report that the iPhone is a dismal failure somehow--and channel stuffing (a'la Microsoft's channel stuffing of the Zune) is one way to paint this picture. However, given the number of units I've seen on the shelves at the various stores I've gone to, I cannot imagine that 30% of Apple's iPhone stock was stuffed into the channel: that would mean that every Apple and AT&T store would have a mountain of iPhones sitting in the corner, and I'm not seeing it.
I'm currently working in Dubai, and I know about 20 people who use unlocked iPhones. I also see people with iPhones everywhere I go, as they are sold in all the phone shops here (unlocked, of course). I also know a lot of people in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain who are using them... and the Middle East accounts for one of the highest numbers of mobile users anywhere in the world. So why do they estimate only 20% of iPhones being unlocked? I always thought it was closer to 50%
I work as a Construction Contractor for some rather extravagant celebrities*. One of my more indulgent clients asked what was the most expensive building materials I've ever seen. Well, I heard on Slashdot that unlocked iPhones make excellent bricks...
Tomorrow, I'm getting my sixth truckload. The North Wing is almost complete, and then I'll start working on the guest house.
* (just kidding, of course. I'm a working techie stiff just like everyone else here)
Solomon
"Twice half-assed makes an ass whole." --Solomon K. Chang
Depending on what state you live in, and what ATT can get away with, there are usually some monthly fees on top of your bill. Like the taxes from the local government, and then the fee they charge you to pay the taxes, and whatever else they like to bilk from you. In Seattle my friend is on the $60/mo plan but has an additional $20 in fees from ATT to make it nearly $80/mo for his iPhone.
Still pretty dang expensive for me, even at the lowest rate. I'll sign on when I can get an iPhone for $200 and then pay $40/mo. I take after my dad who should have founded cheapbastard.com.
Actually Osama's not so pissed that he got a Zune as that he got it for Christmas .
um Ihave never replaced the battery in any phone I have ever owned. they are on 24hours a day. I charge them while they are on. by the time the battery goes weak in my phones 2-3 years have passed and I am thinking about a new one anyways. If you talk so much during he day that your phone can't keep a charge for one day you should try doing less talking.
i thought once I was found, but it was only a dream.