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Math on iPhones Just Doesn't Add Up?
Tech Dirt is reporting that recently announced numbers by Apple and AT&T suggest that there is a large gap (1.7 million) between the number of iPhones being sold and those being activated. Taking into account factors like the iPhone launching outside the US and a 20% estimate of people buying the iPhone just for the purposes of unlocking, there are still 700,000 iPhones unaccounted for. "[...] suggesting that they're sitting on store shelves, piling up as unsold inventory. That number suggests at least some gap between perceived demand and actual demand -- while also raising questions about how much effort it will take to eat through that inventory."
They all got blended:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qg1ckCkm8YI
So is it really more likely there are 700,000 mysteriously missing iPhones, or perhaps the number of people buying them to unlock is higher than they think?
Does the number of ATT activations also include the pre-paid plans, or just the contracts?
The pundits math doesn't line up. What's the reason? They don't know what the fuck they are talking about.
For example: "20% estimate of people buying the iPhone just for the purposes of unlocking, there are still 700,000 iPhones unaccounted for."
OK, so then I guess maybe the 20% estimate is wrong? Horrors.
What I do know for certain is that this discussion won't solve something that only Apple can answer.
Ironically, the word ironically is often used incorrectly.
Totally. Kim Jong Il got one, and now Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Osama Bin Laden are really jealous, to the point that it's threatening to completely disrupt the Axis of Evil. It doesn't help that Osama got a brown Zune for Christmas and now Kim Jong Il and Ahmadinejad are teasing him mercilessly about it.
Surely some small percentage of phones are being unlocked, but did you ever stop to think that maybe the numbers are off because AT&T hasn't reported yet how many iPhone subscribers there are for December/January and there were probably tens of thousands of iPhones purchased as Christmas gifts that sat under a tree and just barely got activated in the last couple of weeks?
"When the president does it, that means it's not illegal." - Richard M. Nixon
Service plans for the iPhone start at $59.99/mo, which is $39.99 for the voice line and $20 for data. I added another iPhone for my wife for another $20 (data plan).
I think the likely reason for the large difference is that AT&T is simply giving you a total number of users who activated a phone on the Specific iphone plans and it does not include users who are blending the data only plan addition with a regular voice plan.
Many people will need more minutes than the regular iphone specific plans can deliver or wanted to keep their existing plan and simply add the iphone features to it.
Or AT&T simply doesn't like paying Apple and they are looking for ways to under report the activations of iphones until after the customers window to cancel without penalties expire or something like that.
Not only that, but Apple is in for a swift kick in the ass if they're not careful. Even though a lot of people will still be able to afford an iPhone, the issues surrounding its battery will be a deterrent to purchasing it. Apple will have two choices if it wants to appeal to consumers who are starting to worry about their budgets: make the batter removable like a Razr or any other phone, or lose potential customers.
A removable battery takes away nothing from the aesthetics of the case. The only thing it does is keep it out of Apple's service shop every year, and thus makes it harder to justify buying a new one every year. Apple needs to prepare itself by making this a non-issue for the iPod Touch and iPhone if it doesn't want to face potential disruption.
Apple could take an active part in developing software for both devices, and sell them to offset the losses in their plans from people not spending a lot of money on repairs and new phones.
Thumbs down on the blog link - the original CNet news story (link) is much more detailed and has this tidbit - Based on the number of "missing" iPhones, each of the 4,400 worldwide iPhone retailers "had more than 150 units of channel inventory at the beginning of this year" which sure sounds like they're counting them F.O.B. from Apple's warehouse door, not when it's actually sold to a consumer.
I went poking around AT&T's investor relations site, and it seems to me (though I didn't spend a whole lot of time there) that the 2 million number is the number of new AT&T customers who switched to AT&T wireless because of the iPhone. This does not count customers (such as myself) who kept my existing service but switched devices (in my case, from a Motorola RAZR to an iPhone).
If this is the case, it would explain a large amount of that gap.
I think part of the problem here is that the major media would like to report that the iPhone is a dismal failure somehow--and channel stuffing (a'la Microsoft's channel stuffing of the Zune) is one way to paint this picture. However, given the number of units I've seen on the shelves at the various stores I've gone to, I cannot imagine that 30% of Apple's iPhone stock was stuffed into the channel: that would mean that every Apple and AT&T store would have a mountain of iPhones sitting in the corner, and I'm not seeing it.
I'm currently working in Dubai, and I know about 20 people who use unlocked iPhones. I also see people with iPhones everywhere I go, as they are sold in all the phone shops here (unlocked, of course). I also know a lot of people in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain who are using them... and the Middle East accounts for one of the highest numbers of mobile users anywhere in the world. So why do they estimate only 20% of iPhones being unlocked? I always thought it was closer to 50%
I work as a Construction Contractor for some rather extravagant celebrities*. One of my more indulgent clients asked what was the most expensive building materials I've ever seen. Well, I heard on Slashdot that unlocked iPhones make excellent bricks...
Tomorrow, I'm getting my sixth truckload. The North Wing is almost complete, and then I'll start working on the guest house.
* (just kidding, of course. I'm a working techie stiff just like everyone else here)
Solomon
"Twice half-assed makes an ass whole." --Solomon K. Chang
With all the junk passing for off topic first posts lately, it's kind of a pleasure just to see a plain old, old-school one for once.
1. Colectors buy one keep the seconds in its origional package.
2. Horders buy as many as possible and sell them on ebay.
3. Short attention span. They bought one but never decided to use it.
4. Stupid People. They couldn't figure out how to use it.
5. Loose recepts. Broken or didn't like it but never returned it.
6. Like to break things. Will it blend what makes it tick.
7. Uninformed after spending $600 on a phone they realize their home has no Cell reception
8. Competitors buy the phone and study it for its secrets.
9. Compulsive cleaning spouce. New Toy left in the wrong spot got tossed.
10. Enemies a person is jelious that you just got an iPhone... Have it dissapar.
11. Kids... Shiny... Small... Toilet... Nuff said.
12. Gifts that were never open.
I bet more too.
If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
There's no way Osama would use a Zune. He's an iPod Nano guy if ever I saw one.
Actually, Kim Jong Il got two, because he got a hole in one the first time he tried using it.
- RG>
Hey pal, this isn't a pleasantforest, so don't waste my time with pleasantries!
Mahmoud Ahmadidntgetaniphonejad?
Depending on what state you live in, and what ATT can get away with, there are usually some monthly fees on top of your bill. Like the taxes from the local government, and then the fee they charge you to pay the taxes, and whatever else they like to bilk from you. In Seattle my friend is on the $60/mo plan but has an additional $20 in fees from ATT to make it nearly $80/mo for his iPhone.
Still pretty dang expensive for me, even at the lowest rate. I'll sign on when I can get an iPhone for $200 and then pay $40/mo. I take after my dad who should have founded cheapbastard.com.
Actually Osama's not so pissed that he got a Zune as that he got it for Christmas .