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Undersea Cable Cut Circumstances Examined
I Don't Believe in Imaginary Property writes "Wired has a good review of all the recent undersea cable cuts and why it's suspicious, but unlikely to be a conspiracy. So far, there are only four cut cables (the 'fifth' was weeks ago) in two different locations. Of course, a cable is damaged once every three days, on average, and there are 25 ships that do nothing but repair them. While the timing and locations are a little odd, Iran has been online the whole time, even if some of their routers weren't, and none of the conspiracy theories really add up. In a recent interview, TeleGeography Analyst Eric Schoonover said, 'I think that this is more along the lines of coincidence.'"
cable cut you.
I didn't know that a cable is cut every three days, nobody speaks about it too much. Good thing we have redundancy. In such case those recent cable cuts are not so strange. Either this, or NSA is realy busy with cable wiretapping ;)
Extreme Programming - Redundant Array of Inexpensive Developers
3 days average makes an expected 4 cable cut time of 12 days (I'm guessing) with a standard deviation of 3.46. Cutting 4 cables in 2 days puts this value 2.89 standard deviations away for a probability of around 0.1%. Of course my math might be wrong since I don't normally play with Poisson distributed values. But if that 0.1% value is right, this was highly unlikely. Most scientists reject things greater than 2.5 standard deviations away.
I think there's the traditional conspiracy breeding ground at work here: lack of knowledge. I understand that can surely come off as a "high horse" opinion, so I might add that I also lacked this knowledge, more specifically in that cable cuts are this common. I think there's nothing wrong in admitting this; the problem starts when "lack of knowledge" turn into "ignorance".
Anyway, when media started reporting these cables being damaged at around the same times, the only newsworthy thing was really the coincidence, not that cables were being damaged. While at the same time, the public reading these stories (and quite likely the journalists themselves) thought that even the cable cuts themselves were uncommon ("why would this otherwise be reported as news?"), and now there was so many of them too! Apply the extra confusion on when the "fifth" cut took place, and you have the conspiracies floating around as they do now. I think it's still even commonly reported that Iran has been harmed a lot, neglecting the wide scale trouble Asia has got from this.
So all in all, from reading up on these things and being willing to be influenced by facts, I've pretty much discarded these conspiracy theories and think it's all just a widespread problem for many more regions than Iran, and also looks like a coincidence on top of that.
Beware: In C++, your friends can see your privates!
I like how the article summary attempts to put us all at ease by remarking there have "only" been 4 cuts, as opposed to 5. It then tries to further reassure us by claiming there's a cut somewhere around the world every three days. Be that as it may, we have four cuts in the same vicinity affected the same countries, in the same week and there were no ships in the area. Ships are, of course, the major cause for accidental cable cuts.
So it all may be a big coincidence. But we should not forget that while 4 cuts in the same area in the same week IS slightly suspicious, this is heightened by the fact they were in an area (The Middle East; specifically Iran) which has been topical for a while due to the extreme and occasionally vitriolic levels of rhetoric spouted by both Western leaders and Middle-Eastern leaders. In addition to this, the cuts occurred during the week Iran was to launch its new Oil Bourse which was to trade oil using non-dollar currencies such as the Euro.
So yes, it could be a coincidence but there are a few strange factors. I don't think it's a good idea as of yet to immediately pronounce these cuts are a "conspiracy" or an "accident" because there are still a lot of unanswered questions. Specifically, what actually caused the cuts? Because of this I'm wary of articles coming out so soon declaring everything is okay, it's not a conspiracy.
It almost seems like a form of placation.
"'I think that this is more along the lines of coincidence.'"
And I think an 'abandoned' 5-ton anchor found at one of the cut sites, when no ships were reported in the area, is _not_ along the lines of coincidence...
"Try this one..." SNIP
Egypt! Damn!
"nope...that's not it"
"okok....cut this one!" SNIP
Dubai?! Dang!
"Don't worry, we'll get it soon - cut this other one!" SNIP
Iran?!!! Finally! "Ok, good work, let's go home!"
There are no coincidences, Delia. Only the illusion of coincidence.
V for Vendetta
I can believe that this is a normal occurrence that the media has just decided to start emphasizing. This happens often in the United States. One abduction gets a lot of media play making the media emphasize every abduction that happens for the next month. Its a sad world, but our news comes in cycles as to what is important.
Saying it's probably just a strange/rare coincidence, without any evidence what it was or wasn't, is just as loony as the nut job conspiracy theories... In other words, this article is a whole lot of nothing, while Wired tries to fill page space.
It's true none of the proposed conspiracy theories pan out, but that's pretty much just par for the course. But hey, at least they're trying. Dismissing it all as "coincidence" is about the same as saying it's a nondescript "conspiracy".
It might as well be possible that there's (*gasp*) something we don't know about the ocean environment that is occurring to cause this, rather than it just being a statistical anomaly.
Slashdot gets worse every day... Pipedot: News for nerds, without the corporate slant
it's psyops: the psychological manipulation of not a person, but country, in this case, the whole of iran. you make someone feel vulnerable and insecure and paranoid by severing their communication with the outside world. someone at mossad noticed how feeble and vulnerable iran's internet access was, and did a litle power maneuver
intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
If our local news suddenly reported murders every night, we would think the crime rate had gone up. If they started reporting wire cuts every night, we would think someone was cutting them on purpose.
but seeing that my own comment was quite the substantative jaunt into paranoid schizophrenia land, i would be hypocritical to criticize your assertion, even if i think it is even more paranoid than mine
i would reply by criticizing my own assertion: a good argument against my assertion would be that once mossad did this, iran would make dang sure it never happened again. in other words, it is a maneuver you can only do once. after that, your enemy will make sure it never happens again. in which case, it would make sense to reserve the action of cutting off internet access to your enemy's entire country only for a time of serious war, when the action can produce the most benefit
to cut access now, would seem to be a waste in that regard
intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
Did you ever consider that instead of some government conspiracy it could be that maybe someone wanted to sell some cable? Yeah you heard me. A business conspiracy. With profit as the motive. I know, I know. It totally goes against the whole "from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs" vibe you all got going on here in the hive mind. Crazy idea I know... but I'm just saying... profit motive... think about it.
1) Cut cables.
2) ?
3) Obtain contract to install new, improved, more resilient cables.
4) Profit!
If only it bothered me if we (the US) actually did try to bump Iran of the internet....
For some reason, it doesn't.
and, btw, to the previous poster, I seriously doubt they'd have to guess which lines to cut if they were doing it on purpose (though that is funny). I'd also point out it's more likely that someone over 'there' is doing the cutting than the US. But then again, we are the evil empire blah blah blah.
EK
A cable is damaged, not cut, every three days. How can you immediately mis-quote something you just read? Moron!
Honestly I am not surprised this happens as often as the article cites. Conspiracy theorists need to get a life. These cables are subject to coral, rocks, currents and shifting water... is it any wonder they wear through with the constant rubbing up against rocks and whatnot? I just think it's a little far fetched to think this is some grand government conspiracy... that was exposed... on the internet.... Just my opinion though.
Slashdot is too nerdy for me.
It would appear even shark and fish bites can break the cables:
http://www.iscpc.org/publications/About_Cables_in_PDF_Format.pdf
But they are also prone to breaking from bad weather such as storms. So it would seem there's any number of possible causes for a cable to break, ship anchors are only one such reason.
According to this very PDF in shallow waters less than 100m less than 10% of cable breaks are the result of natural activity, whilst at depths over 1000m the faults are more often caused by natural hazards. It seems most faults are the result of anchoring and fishing - 70% worth but of course 30% of faults are still caused by natural hazards.
It's reasonable in this case that the two areas effected were hit with two separate incidents, one could reasonably be a trawler for example causing two cuts in the Persian gulf whilst some natural event could've caused the breaks near Egypt or vice versa.
When you get all the facts it really doesn't seem so unreasonable that this really is just coincidence and not some big conspiracy theory. I'll admit I was beginning to feel it was a pretty big coincidence, but only when I didn't have all the information and only when I was also being fed false information (i.e. the lies about Iran being cut off from the net). Now I've got more information I think it's pretty reasonable to believe there's no conspiracy here, particularly as there isn't a conspiracy theory regarding the situation yet that doesn't actually make sense when you look at the overall picture yet.
In this particular example, were it such a PoC, we learned a minimum of:
1) How quickly the media took the story
2) What the public's reaction to the news was
3) What kind of response to expect from those impacted by the cuts
4) (Possibly) What kinds of cuts are more effective than others
5) (Possibly) What behaviors are deemed suspicious, and what gets labeled as 'normal'
There are probably quite a few more, as well.
The coolest part is, even if it was a giant coincidence, most of the above can be learned anyway. This would lead me to believe that we can expect to see more of this in the future.
I'm surprised this Wired story doesn't mention the awesome, in-depth article Neil Stephenson wrote in 1996 that chronicled the birth and construction of the FLAG cable: Mother Earth Mother Board - The hacker tourist ventures forth across the wide and wondrous meatspace of three continents, chronicling the laying of the longest wire on Earth.
These cables are subject to coral, rocks, currents and shifting water... is it any wonder they wear through with the constant rubbing up against rocks and whatnot?
:), Oh yeah not mention the permits you require to dive Greece :(."
WTF??? Check a map. All areas of the cuts except one are in the end of a body of water with nowhere for the water to flow to/from. These areas are high current locations like the great lakes in the US.. Stagnant. You may get choppy seas from wind, but there isn't much flow to speak of. Coral reefs don't grow in stagnant water. I have not seen any travel brochures for great dive sites in the area.
The comments I have found on diving in the area seem to be along the lines of this post.
"Hi Folks
Have dove the Med on a number occasions and in different locals such as Cyprus,Italy, and Greece. I think the only highlight of diving the Med is artifact diving. Water clarity and marine life was nowhere near what I expected in fact down right dismal. This I believe is attributed to the European method of sewage non-treatment and overfishing practices. Have dove the Adriatic as well, Croatia down to Albania and found much the same conditions, albeit the marine life was more abundant. The Med/Adriatic would not be my choice for a diving holiday, but if there for business purposes water is water
http://www.scubaboard.com/forums/archive/index.php/t-90.html In short, the Western Med is OK close to the open sea, but the East end is a dead sewer. There is no coral, poor visibility and few fish.
The truth shall set you free!
Disruption of the planned opening of the Iranian Oil Bourse this week. Suspicious, the Iranians were about to start trading oil in Euros on the 11th. That would send the dollar into a tailspin and all but destroy the US's already shaky credit rating in the rest of the world.
It wouldn't take much to disrupt trading. This also explains why the cuts were reported so widely. It's a message to would be Euro oil traders: the US is simply not going to allow this to happen. We will do anything it takes to disrupt non-dollar trade in oil. The dollar must remain the world's reserve currency if our economic house of cards is to remain standing. The Iranian Oil Bourse is potentially more damaging to the US than an Iranian nuke.
- None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
Is that you?
Somebody might get xfered if it were.
If the media report some incidence(s) over and over for a few weeks, many people feel that "something is going on", but they don't think that such incidents could happen everyday and that for some reason the media pick up the stories selectively now. You cannot measure anything by how much media coverage it gets. All we hear from the media are stories about "another cable cut" but nobody tells us the average incidences of cuts in the last few years and their daily distribution within the year.