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IBM Using Complex Math To Manage Natural Disasters
coondoggie brings us a NetworkWorld story about IBM's efforts to use complex algorithms to manage responses to natural disasters. Researchers are making use of recent increases in processor speed and algorithm efficiency to develop a scalable, flexible model capable of handling the complicated planning involved in reacting to a crisis. Quoting:
"'We are creating a set of intellectual properties and software assets that can be employed to gauge and improve levels of preparedness to tackle unforeseen natural disasters,' says Dr. Gyana Parija. 'Most real-world problems involve uncertainty, and this has been the inspiration for us to tackle challenges in natural disaster management.' In the case of flooding, for example, the stochastic programming model would use various flood scenarios, resource supply capabilities at different dispatch locations, and fixed and variable costs associated with deployment of various flood-management resources to manage various risk measures. By assigning probabilities to the factors driving outcomes, the model outlines how limited resources can meet tomorrow's unknown demands or liabilities. In this way, the risks and rewards of various tradeoffs can be explored, IBM said."
High-performance computing won't save us from idiots in high places, even during natural disasters. Case in point: Michael D. Brown, who was in charge of FEMA during the Hurricane Katrina ordeal. From the wikipedia article:
"...Some members interviewed felt Brown showed an imperious attitude, and nicknamed him 'The Czar'."
Heckuva job, Brownie! More optimistically, I hope that their algorithms could predict the 4 or 5 "wild"- fires in Southern California which are all started mysteriously(on the same day) "in season."
sqrt(-1) = natural disaster!
Things this macroscopic generally can't be modeled very well.
Can they model government indifference to the people's plight?
Natural Disaster: "Hey, look at me! I am a natural disaster! I destroy things!
IBM scientist: "No you don't. According to our complex mathematical calculations you do not exist."
Natural Disaster: "What a load of crock! Ofcourse I ex...."*poof*
Knowledge is power. Knowledge shared is power lost.
Complex math? Aren't real numbers good enough for the job?
"They redundantly repeated themselves over and over again incessantly without end ad infinitum" -- ibid.
Oh man, I just loved this: "We are creating a set of intellectual properties and software assets that can be employed to gauge and improve levels of preparedness to tackle unforeseen natural disasters"
Awesome, now they get to patent how to respond to natural disasters so that no one else can innovate... another victory for our wonderful patent process!
Before everyone starts smarting at this thing 'predicting' natural disasters, please read the summary carefully (I know your not going to read the article). The math and system is designed to help deal with natural disasters that do happen (like optimizing your relief delivery path, plotting the best places to contain/fight a forest fire, etc etc). It is also used to evaluate how best, and how well current resources could be used in a natural disaster by predicting (yes, there is it, a prediction) most likely challenges, problems, scale and the like. I think it's useful.
<p>
The new thing with this apparently is that they're using a new mathematical model that previously was too computationally expensive to do on a large scale. Computers are powerful enough to use these models now.
if(contribution_of_lobbiests_impacted > 100000000)
do_something();
else
ignore_poor_people();
Engineering is the art of compromise.
Clearly complex math needs to be computed on an iMac.
Prime numbers are exactly what Alan Greenspan says they are -S. Minsky
Can you predict them? Every now and then, an especially incompetent "leader" seems to gain power some how, and it usually ends in tears. Can they predict this fluctuation in the cycle of the human animal and it's society?
You didn't use Hungarian.
Engineering is the art of compromise.
We are creating a set of intellectual properties and software assets
Evil. EVIL. EEEEVIL!
Natural disaster may be quantifiable, but do we really want some heartless machine deciding who lives and dies in the case of an emergency? Anyone see I-Robot?
I don't mean to sound like a stereotypical paranoid geek, but we give too much power to machines they will start controlling our life.
I was told there would be no math...
In the case of a natural disaster please check with your lawyer before responding.
You may be infringing on a patent...
Natural Disaster + Presidential Photo-Ops = Great PR!
I wonder how long it would take for Charles Eppes to show up...
From TFA: "to tackle unforeseen natural disasters"
But then it goes on to talk about mostly foreseeable natural disasters. If you live on a flood plain or a low-lying coastal area subject to hurricanes, you're going to get flooded. In an earthquake zone you're going to get earthquakes. Lot of vegetation in an area that has dry spells, fires. And so on.
Legitimately unforeseen natural disasters would be things like a comet impact, volcanoes erupting in downtown LA, or perhaps alien invasion. Oh wait, that last would be an unnatural disaster, wouldn't it? But come to think of it, the ones I just mentioned have all been foreseen too.
I guess I just don't foresee a need for this software. Maybe they should work on software for foreseeable disasters.
-- Alastair
From what I could gather from the summary, this sounds like a glorified Monte Carlo simulation, not exactly something newsworthy..
Infinite time means everything that can happen, will. You being you is absolutely incidental. You do not exist.
Someone has been watching too many episodes of numb3rs....
I used to do Delphi stuff (I know) for a firm of insurance actuaries. They were writing code for (essentially) predicting how long it would take to pay out for natural disasters. They had some very clever Stochastics in there, along with some nice triangulation/vector stuff too: I remember the names Bornhuetter and Ferguson (sadly it's been a long time and there's been the odd small sweet sherry since, so life isn't that clear recently).
What I do remember though, is that I mentioned to my superiors that a case-based reasoning engine would take a lot of the (non-discrete) math out of the whole thing. Because things happen and we learn from them. Has the nature of nature changed, or was I wrong in the first place?
And so the Federal government will spend $millions, probably $billions, on no-bid contracts for all kinds of fancy gear, but still won't fix the levees protecting New Orleans.
--
make install -not war
In other words they are using techniques from the area of applied math called Operations Research. Whats new about that? It has been used for years for planning of resources for natural disasters.
And thanks to IBM, responding to a crisis of 9/11 or Katrina magnitude strikes may constitute patent infringement. Big Blue has a patent pending for Optimizing the Selection, Verification, and Deployment of Expert Resources in a Time of Chaos, which covers responding to 'episodes of profound chaos during hurricanes, earthquakes, tidal waves, solar flares, flooding, terrorism, war, and pandemics to name a few.' It's apparently this easy.
http://xkcd.com/179/
In other words, it took LOTS of data.
But, once you entered the data, you could tell the system "I want 99.999% uptime" and it would give you the most cost efficient way to buy and store the parts needed. Or you could start with a budget and find out what sort of availability you could afford. Depending on the size of the operation and criticality of the availability you could save a lot of money or really help with availability.
It sounds like this software does something similar. In the spares optimization, you don't know which airport your plane will be at when it's engine needs replacing. In the disaster scenario, you don't know where the disaster will strike. In the first case, you're optimizing spare part allocation. In the second you're optimizing recovery supplies and equipment. Either way you get the best probabilities you can and optimize the best you can.
Yeah, I know. I read the article. AND posted an on-topic, very un-funny comment. I must be new here. Well, this user ID is new, at least.
"'We are creating a set of intellectual properties and software assets that can be employed to gauge and improve levels of preparedness to tackle unforeseen natural disasters,' says Dr. Gyana Parija.
Many research groups are working on simulation and prediction of behavior, natural disasters, preparedness, etc. But the first words out of an IBM researcher's mouth are "intellectual properties and software assets".
Shame on you.
IBM is a bit of a natural disaster all by itself.....
The Bigger The Headache The Bigger the Pill
Maybe there should be another tag added? 'Dharma' ? :)
i am very suspicious that a large corporation such as IBM is beavering away creating and no doubt patenting "intellectual properties" that may cover critical ares of need with the advent of global warming, global dimming and the potential water level rises. Seems somewhat opportunistic when it would appear to be global PTSD. (Just think of Katrina on a global scale).
Oh, yet another SD article completely composed of BS! Geeez, can we stop with the "I'm using really, REALLY complex (math/algorithms/hardware/physics/chemistry/lollipops) so therefore, my research can do this impossible task that nobody else can do. What's funny, in a year or two, all is forgotten about said "complex algorithms" ...blah..blah...blah...
It something like triaging patients in a mass casualty - in the case of limited resources and nearly unlimited casualties, you spend the doctors & nurses time where it will do the most good. Saving a 5 year old with massive head trauma may make you feel all warm and fuzzy, but if that time costs the lives of three adults... well, it's never an easy choice to make, and sometimes it would be easier to let a computer make these kinds of harsh decisions.
Have you been touched by his noodly appendage?
Complex math??? The cure sounds worse than the disease...
When dealing with natural disasters, I stick to the natural numbers.
Yours,
math flunker
The current financial market crisis is considered by many economists and finance professionals to be due in part to the failure of such computationally-intensive risk-management models as those it sounds like IBM is creating.
Is Capitalism Good for the Poor?
I think you'll find that Led Zeppelin identified the problem some years ago:
"If it keeps on raining: levee's gonna break.
When the levee breaks: mama, you got to move."
FEMA have been using this model for some time now.....
Perhaps it does need a rethink.
Too bad they can't sell this to the FEMA anymore.
For great justice.
the disasters created by this CRIMINAL.
Thank your for your consideration.
PatRIOTically,
Kilgore Trout
Lessons from the Private Sector and the Coast Guard During Katrina
Private-sector planning for the storm began days ahead of landfall. On the Friday prior to the Monday landfall, Home Depot activated the "war room" at its Atlanta headquarters, negotiating with various vendors to get needed supplies staged to move into the hurricane zone. Wal-Mart's response began slightly earlier. As part of its regular operations, the company maintains an emergency command center...
Gee... I wonder what large, unnamed program deploying large numbers of critical assets under crisis scenarios might possibly be...hmm?
Folks are right that this is nothing completely new, but if they've found a way to speed the computation of it along ("within an hour"?) with less machine resources required... then that is a breakthrough, is it not?
Yes, there has been this sort of research going on in academic institutions and elsewhere, private and public sectors, internationally (and if you look at IBM's pages that are linked, there is a substantial list of citations, collaborating institutions, et cetera)... but just who do you think is putting up the funding in grants and prizes and such at those other institutions? Why... it's IBM and US Federal agencies! What a shock...
Granted, the wording of that patent application as it's presented does appear to be way too broad - I don't think IBM is really intending to suggest they hold a patent on disaster relief as a concept? If they have developed an algorithm and software (in-house and through work generated from their grant seed-monies)to facilitate said disaster relief, however, they should be able to expect some ownership and a return on investment shouldn't they?
On the other hand, I do somewhat suspect that had this software been available to FEMA before Katrina hit the response wouldn't have been a whole lot better. There is only so much you can optimize a crap system, and creating a huge centralized federal bureaucracy dedicated to "emergency management" was just asking for bad response times - this one just showed how bad that response time could get when the event wasn't localized. Sadly, that can't be blamed on Bush since it was done in 1979 (feel free to blame him for taking to long to feign interest if you want - but that never has been his strong suit, has it).
The unfortunate truth is that no matter how good such software is, no matter how advanced the algorithms, no matter how fast the supercomputers... if it's trying to optimize and implement the unworkable ideas created by politicians it's going to be GIGO.
Q: What do you call it when you create a sentient supercomputer that can actually think like a politician?
A: "Artificial Stupidity"
// req vars // conditionals // logic
$color = get_skin_pigment($victims);
$sector = get_sectors_affected($disaster);
$cost_per_minute = current_price_of_advertising();
$bling = $db->get_var("SELECT (SUM donated AS bling) FROM data WHERE (in_array($sector))");
$replair_cost = $num_dead * $cost_per_minute;
If ($color == #ff0000) {$pr = FALSE;} else {$pr = TRUE;}
If($repair_cost > $bling && $pr) {fix_the_problem();}
else {call_larry_king();}
barack to the future?