$1/Gallon "Green Gasoline" In Sight

mattnyc99 writes "We've gotten excited here about the startup that claims it can make $1/gallon ethanol out of anything from trash to tires. But we've also seen how cellulosic ethanol is a better option, and how ethanol demand in general is only adding to the worldwide food crisis. So what about $1/gallon gasoline? NSF-funded researchers at UMass Amherst just completed the first direct conversion from cellulose using a new method of hydrocarbon refining, which they claim can be commercialized within 5-10 years and essentially make fuel out of anything that grows. Quoting: 'We already have the infrastructure in place to distribute liquid fuels. We're using them to power transportation vehicles today, and I think that's what we'll be using in 10 years and in 50 years,' Huber says. 'And if you want a sustainable liquid transportation fuel, biomass is the only way to go.'" The process is running at about 50% efficiency now; the $1/gallon figure is based on getting to 100%.

Comments

I say!

[jawtheshark]

Mr Fusion!

Seeing doc putting in that banana peel was just too much :-)

Re:I say!

[Erioll]

So this technology is 5-10 years away? Kinda like how fusion is always 20 years away?

Basically, I'll believe it when I'm pumping it into my gas/ethanol tank.

Re:I say!

[jawtheshark]

Kinda like how fusion is always 20 years away?

... I might have been too subtle, but that was my point.

Re:I say!

[0racle]

Mr. Fusion only powered the time circuits and the Flux Capacitor, the engine runs on ordinary gasoline, always has, always will.

Re:I say!

[Anonymous Coward]

Well, I can't say exactly how long it will take to commercialize, but the company I work for, which may or may not have been mentioned in the article (wink) has a production-scale run of the catalyst scheduled for later this year. I wouldn't scoff too hard at a 5-10 year projection.

Re:I say!

[Rei]

Actually, it reminds me of thermal depolymerization. Anyone remember that?

Really, though, what we're looking at is one of the things that drives me crazy about a lot of environmental "trends" and congress's role in pushing them. And don't get me wrong; I say this as a hardcore green with CFLs in every socket who is on the waiting list for an electric car.

Most of these new biomass-to-ethanol plants work based on syngas. That is, partial oxidation of carbon-and-hydrogen-bearing matter into a mixture of CO and H2. They then either, through an wasteful catalytic process or an even more wasteful biological process, convert the syngas into ethanol. Great. Except that we've been converting syngas to gasoline, in a rather simple and fairly efficient process, for the past century. The main syngas source was coal. This Fischer-Tropsch process powered a large portion of Nazi Germany's war machine (until their plants were bombed flat). It powered South Africa during the Apartheid regime.

Let's state this again: they typically are using *more energy* to create *less output* of a product with *less energy density* that *can't be transported in normal pipelines* and can only be used in *small amounts* in cars unless they're *specially modified*, rather than, more efficiently, just creating gasoline. Why? Because gasoline is a dirty word. Because there aren't the same sort of subsidies for "cellulosic gasoline" as there are for cellulosic ethanol. Because cellulosic gasoline won't win you green cred, or get the investors lining up. So the inferior solution gets chosen.

Re:I say!

[chaim79]

So, what you are saying is that the Test is 5-10 Months away, and getting it to 100% efficiency is 5-10 years away.

So in theory we could be seeing this with $2 or $3 a gallon gas fairly soon, and after a while the production cost will be reduced (though the price will probably stay where it is.) :)

Re:I say!

[Torsoboy]

Truth. The premise of the third movie was that they couldn't get the Delorean up to 88 MPH since they had no gasoline.

Re:I say!

[Markspark]

i probably need to get out my reading glasses, you since parent clearly stated that the Fischer-Tropsch process was used to make gasoline. On a side note, one thing that seems feasible (if we solve the corrosivity issues) is Steam reforming of biomass to methanol, which is an exothermal process.

Re:I say!

[Flunitrazepam]

Let's state this again: they typically are using *more energy* to create *less output* of a product with *less energy density* that *can't be transported in normal pipelines* and can only be used in *small amounts* in cars unless they're *specially modified*, rather than, more efficiently, just creating gasoline.


but other than these points, it seems like a good idea wouldn't you say?

Re:I say!

[Derrikex]

Yeah but you could use the flux capacitor to go back to when gas was cheaper.

Re:I say!

[hardburn]

It's a DeLorean. It needed a good push to get to 88mph even with gasoline.

Re:I say!

[Mr. Slippery]

Those CFLs are *mercury free*, right? And that electric car isn't going to be charged from a coal plan, is it?

If you trashed the CFLs, the amount of mercury released would be less than the mercury released by coal-fired plants to power the equivalent in incandescent lights.

And CFLs can - and should be - recycled, so no mercury is released except for the occasional broken bulb. If you break one, you just take some simple precautions to clean up. They have about 1/100th of the mercury in a old thermometer, the type everyone had in their house not very long ago.

Environmentally, mercury in CFLs is a very very small issue.

And an electric car powered by a coal-fired generating plant still emits much less pollution than a gasoline car.

So what's your point?

Re:I say!

[Skillet5151]

Post to undo accidental modding. A long set of dropdown boxes that take effect immediately with no way to confirm or change...what could go wrong?
(Or have I missed something?)

Re:I say!

[cayenne8]

"And CFLs can - and should be - recycled, so no mercury is released except for the occasional broken bulb."

Yeah, but, let's be honest. I'd dare say that MOST of the CFLs are going to just be tossed in the trash can like most waste is today. Out of all of my friends, I only know 2 people that recycle anything....and one of them lives in an area where it is required (first I'd ever heard of mandatory recycling). I throw everything in the garbage...no exceptions so far. The one friend I know here takes cans to be recycled....I think he said the place is a few miles away, but, he has to do it. I've only got a 2 seat car...even if I wanted to, I don't really have a way to do it unless I was devoting a lot of time to it every few days to keep the loads small.

Most people around here throw everything out...computers, trash, glass, paper...etc. If CFLs get common, they're gonna end up in the regular trash too.

Re:I say!

[KevinIsOwn]

Your car is not the problem. Admit it: You are just being lazy. I know, you may not want to hear this. Most people don't, but recycling isn't very difficult.
Consider your car excuse: The total amount of waste is exactly the same. It just gets separated into multiple containers. And when it comes to cans, just bag them and take them with you to the supermarket, recycle them on your way in, get groceries on the way out. It's really not that hard.

Re:I say!

[osu-neko]

Recycling is a boondoggle. It takes more energy to recycle glass or bimetal than to just make new stuff.

Is your second sentence a non sequitur, or are you asserting that the only good reason to recycle things is to save energy? I've actually never heard that as a reason. Usually, the reason for recycling is to avoid depleting a resource (we're going to run out of that metal eventually if we keep this up), or despoiling the environment further (sure there's plenty more of that metal around, but do we want more strip-mines?), or just filling landfills unnecessarily (glass is silicon, the most abundant element on earth -- sure we're never going to run out and don't need to destroy the environment mining it, but why keep filling landfills with it if we can find something else to do with it?). Saving energy is not even in the top three reasons for recycling, although if there are cases where you *can* save energy by doing so, that's a pretty nice benefit.

Re:I say!

[drinkypoo]

Saving energy is not even in the top three reasons for recycling, although if there are cases where you *can* save energy by doing so, that's a pretty nice benefit.

Actually, quite a bit of the environmental cost of using steel or aluminum is related to the energy cost of refining it.

It would make more sense to stop making so much plastic shit than to recycle it. We can make compostable hemp plastics. No shit. You can make them with corn too, but corn is not a good feed stock for reasons which should be obvious.

Given that most of our energy comes from Coal in this country, you should be concerned about the energy cost issue.

Re:I say!

[Rei]

not sure where you pulled that from? Their seams to be one clean coal plant in the US, and with batteries not being exactly green, and a pure electric car costs more to run than the same car running on hybrid (if battery replacement cost is not subsidized.) Throw in all the radio-active emissions of coal plants (none in gasoline.)

It's very, very simple. Gasoline engines are very inefficient. Non-hybrids average less than 20% tank-to-wheel efficiency. Hybrids, just over. Fuel-burning power plants, 30-50% efficiency. Transmission losses, ~8%. Charger losses, ~7%. Battery losses, ~0.1% in Li-ion. Motor losses, ~10%. Do the math. I can give you several peer-reviewed studies on the topic if you're prefer.

As for batteries, you're just not up to date with the technology. These aren't lead-acid or nickel-cadmium batteries here. For example, my Aptera is to use lithium phosphate batteries. These last 10-20 years and are almost completely nontoxic. Their raw ingredients are things like iron, phosphoric acid (the same stuff as in soft drinks -- made from fluoroapatite, the same stuff as in well cared-for teeth, plus sulphuric acid, which is an oil industry *byproduct*), graphite, and even sugar (for the carbon binding). These aren't "in a few years" -- they're already here. They're becoming the new standard for cordless power tools, for example.

Considering low emission gas vehicles currently exhaust cleaner air than they take in

That's nearly always a myth promoted by the manufacturers. If you look at the actual numbers, they usually lower one pollutant by a tiny amount (say, particulate matter caught up in the air filter) while still emitting the other pollutants.

Re:I say!

[nickname29]

(and was used to make gasoline in SA),

The sentence should read: Is still used to make gasoline (petrol, diesel) in SA, and Qatar.

however it's not energy efficient, and i hardly believe that this process is either.

CTL and GTL is energy efficient. It is cheaper to manufacture gasoline from gas or coal than to pump it out of an oil field. SASOL (the company in SA that makes gasoline from coal and gas) has grown considerably during the high oil prices. Their stock price doubled in a year. They made huge profits at $40 dollars/barrel - imagine what they are making now. There were even calls for a special tax on this company (since it makes humongous profits).

Here is a stock chart for SASOL (on the LSE). As you can see, the stock price is 6 times what it was in 2004.

Just a side note, making cellulistic ethanol is a much harder and difficult beast â" it is more difficult (by a few orders of magnitude) than making ethanol from corn.

Re:I say!

[electrictroy]

I think California had the right idea with their EV Mandate. Electricity is a practical solution that is here NOW, not some future time which may or may not ever arrive.

And over time, we could transition to nanoscale solar cells on top of people's roofs so they can charge their cars.

Re:I say!

[prisoner-of-enigma]

Electricity is a practical solution that is here NOW, not some future time which may or may not ever arrive. Well, if you consider "practical" to mean a car that has a third of the range of a gasoline powered car, needs hours to "refill", costs twice as much (when you consider the federal subsidies), needs battery replacements every 18-24 months (if you want to maintain range), and can't tow anything to be "practical" then you're right on the money! I'm sure people are flocking to electric cars because they're so darn practical! They are flying off the showroom floors, aren't they? Aren't they? Hello?

Practicality is only one of the issues facing your "practical solution." Electric cars need to be plugged in to something called "utility power" in order to recharge. Where do those magical electrons come from? I'll take "power plants" for $500, Alex. California already has a utility power shortage crisis, with rolling blackouts and brownouts thrown in for fun. Suppose the entire state went electric with their cars tomorrow? Just where do you think all that juice would come from? Pixie dust? Nano-solar isn't going to save you anytime soon, either.

Electric cars are neat. For some people they fit the bill. For the vast majority of people they do not. You've got a lot of learning to do about what the meaning of the word "practical" is for folks who aren't clones of you.

Re:I say!

[Bombula]

A couple of things. First, beware the Green Scam. I looked closely into biodiesel-from-algae as a possible startup last year, and found a number of scammers in the market - most notably Global Green Solutions (www.globalgreensolutionsinc.com) whose technology claims turned out to be not only ambitious by thermodynamically impossible: over 80% total efficiency. The physical limit of photosynthesis is under 20%.

Still, algae biodiesel is probably the way to go because it can use seawater in concrete raceway ponds paved onto otherwise unarable land. Thermal depolymerization looks good too, but we have to wait to see the long-term numbers for the Butterball Turkey test plant.

It powered South Africa during the Apartheid regime.

Not completely. A number of Gulf countries illegally supplied oil to South Africa during aparteid. In Oman, this turned brothers Omar and Qais Zawawi into billionaires.

Re:I say!

[prisoner-of-enigma]

For example, my Aptera is to use lithium phosphate batteries. A quick Google search yields the following website: http://www.aptera.com/. I'm assuming that's the source of the car you're referring to. Digging around in it a bit, I find the following:

What will be the battery life and cost replacement?

This depends largely on usage and if you have an "All Electric" or an "Electric Plug-in Hybrid" version of the Aptera. We will share these exact numbers when they become available closer to the start of Aptera production.

So your 10-20 year lifespan of the battery isn't documented on the website anywhere that I can find.

To its credit, Aptera does say its car will cost between $26,900 and $29,900. I wonder how much of that is subsidized, though. And paying $30K for a car that does 0-60 in 10 seconds, carries two passengers, and practically no cargo isn't exactly a screaming bargain. You'd be far better off buying a more conventional gas/electric hybrid like the ones currently available.

I also note on the Aptera site that the car isn't designed for cold climates. Availability is almost non-existent as well. Last, and perhaps most distressing, Aptera offers no warranty on the vehicle. Sure, they're working on something, but as of now you get nothing. Remind me again why anyone except the most die-hard tree hugger with deep pockets and no family would ever want to buy this thing?

Re:I say!

[clonan]

Actually, most small (sub compact) size electric cars have similar ranges to gas powered cars. Since to this point most electrics have been intended as in-town cars, so long as the recharge time was under 8 hours it didn't make a difference. Now that electrics are trying to go more mainstream, the recharge time is gropping fast. I have seen systems that can recharge in under an hour and this can drop even further.

As for replacing the batteries, even with older systems like lead-acid, it has ALWAYS been cheaper to maintain electrics than gas powered vehicles. Things we take for granted like regular oil changes, tune ups, timing belts etc aren't on electrics at all. On top of that, newer battery systems are projected to last the life of the vehicle. Think about the only maint. you need to do is to change your tires.

You are correct that electric cars must be powered off power plants. However, electric cars are so much more efficient that california would end up with GOBS more power if they simply redirected the gas for cars into powerplants. Currently electrics have an 85-90% efficiencey considering battery and motor loses. Gas vehicles have a 26% efficiency at best. Considering transmission losses, about 5% of electric power is lost and a similar percentage is used in the transportation of gas. Finally, the processing. Power plants typically operate on a 60% efficiency. Therefore, gas powered vehicles operate at around 20% efficiency at best while electrics are hovering around 50%. Two and a hoalf times better! Plus much of the US power is generated by hydro electric and wind, solar-termal and nuclear are starting to come back...

Over the last 10 years electric cars have been a niche market. However the current technology actually allows for wide spread use and the price tag (especially when you include power/fuel expenses) are actually comperable. With near term developments in super capcitors and batteries, the range of applications will increase, the fueling times will decrease and the cost will drop.

Re:I say!

[Mr. Slippery]

It takes more energy to recycle glass or bimetal than to just make new stuff.

Citation needed. Wikipedia says glass recycling saves 5-30% of the energy, and 20% of the air pollution. Bimetal, I don't know about, but recycling aluminum can saves 95% of the energy, and steel 60%; recycling bimetal cans would only waste energy if it took a tremendous amount of energy to separate the parts, and if that's the case we ought to redesign or eliminate them.

I cannot put the majority of my trash because, even if it is technically recyclable, it is not marked for recycling.

Where do you live that paper, aluminum cans, and glass bottles, are supposed to be specially marked for recycling? Here in the U.S. the only things marked are plastic, so you can tell what type it is. It was the same way when I was in Japan (where they do a tremendous job of recycling).

Re:I say!

[d3ac0n]

A couple problems with your argument.

Actually, most small (sub compact) size electric cars have similar ranges to gas powered cars

True. The problem is that most subcompact cars aren't practical either. Maybe for single people or childless couples, but for people with families these vehicles are entirely impractical. Thus the popularity of SUVs.

As for replacing the batteries, even with older systems like lead-acid, it has ALWAYS been cheaper to maintain electrics than gas powered vehicles. Things we take for granted like regular oil changes, tune ups, timing belts etc aren't on electrics at all. On top of that, newer battery systems are projected to last the life of the vehicle. Think about the only maint. you need to do is to change your tires.

This one is COMPLETELY wrong, and shows a real lack of understanding of basic mechanics. Most of the "Electric" cars out there are actually HYBRID cars. Why? Because of the inherent problem of the lack of range of full electrics Since they are hybrids, they have small gasoline engines in them. These engines need all the maintenance of any other engine. So take the normal maintenance costs of a standard automobile, THEN add the costs of replacing the battery pack (roughly 3-5 grand US each 3-5 years) ON TOP of that. NOT cheaper.

Even for full electrics, the maintenance costs are still comparable, because even though there is no Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) in the vehicle, it still has plenty of moving parts that need regular lubrication and get worn out and need replacing over the life of the car. The average full electric vehicle needs about 50% to 75% of the year-to-year maintenance that a hybrid or a standard ICE vehicle needs. But you still need to calculate in the cost of replacing the battery pack every 3-5 years, which pushes the maintenance costs of an Electric to WAY over the cost of an ICE vehicle. if I may demonstrate with a simple chart:

ICE vehicle expected maintenance costs on a yearly basis over 5 years: $1000.00 US
Total average maint. costs: $5000.00 US

Hybrid vehicle expected maintenance costs on a yearly basis over 5 years: $1000.00 US
Hybrid replacement battery pack costs within a 5 year period: $3000.00 - $5000.00 US
Total average maint. costs: $7000.00 - $10,000.00 US

Full Electric Expected Maintenance costs on a yearly basis over 5 years: $500.00 - $750.00 US
Electric replacement battery pack costs within a 5 year period: $3000.00 - $5000.00 US
Total average maint. costs: $5500.00 - $8750.00

These are rough figures, but I'm sure you can spend some time on edmunds.com or Google and find similar numbers.

One additional point, you aren't taking in the disposal costs of the HIGHLY TOXIC batteries. Yes, some can be recycled, but many cannot. What do we do about those? ICE vehicles are 99% recyclable. Hybrids and Electrics are not, due to the batteries.

california would end up with GOBS more power if they simply redirected the gas for cars into powerplants

Power plants DO NOT run on gasoline. MOST are coal-NG plants, some are Nuclear, some are Hydro power, and a very small number of low-capacity plants run Diesel. So you CANNOT re-direct the gasoline to power plants, they can't use it!

Also, California's power grid problem is twofold:
1) Over-regulation by the California government has economically strangled the power plants, making it a loss-proposition to run a power plant in California.

2) The Eco-Freaks and NIMBYs have wrangled a practical ban on building any NEW power plants in CA, such that demand has now FAR outstripped supply. Thus the rolling blackouts and brownouts. There simply isn't enough power to go around, and no way to get more power plants built.

You will notice that NEITHER of these problems are IN ANY WAY related to Gasoline or automobiles.

You can talk all about supposed efficiency gai

Re:I say!

[Firethorn]

Actually, most small (sub compact) size electric cars have similar ranges to gas powered cars

Do you have figures on that? I've always figured that the range for a gasoline car is ~300 miles. All the EV sites I've seen touting economical EVs(excludes the Telsa) is around 100 miles.

As for recharge time, it's all dependant on two factors. Well, one usually ends up being the limiter. The first is battery chemistry. You can only charge a lead-acid battery so fast. NiMH is a bit faster, and you have a better 'fast charge' ability. LiIon is better yet, though it gets really slow near the end. The second is the wattage capacity of your charging system.

If all you have is a 120V outlet, you're only going to be able to push about 1.5KWh into the batteries in an hour. 2KWh for a 'heavy duty' 20Amp dedicated circuit. Switch to a dryer type outlet at 240V@30A, and you're up to 6KWh. Which would fill most EV batteries in about 3 hours. The Tesla, sportscar that it is, has a 53KWh battery. That dryer outlet would take 9 hours to charge it from empty. There's nothing except the pain of handling 000 gauge* wires and running most of a modern house's capacity to it to keep you from charging it in just over an hour. Well, assuming the charging system can keep up. Of course, at that point a transformer and kicking the voltage up to levels only line workers normally see**.

However, electric cars are so much more efficient that california would end up with GOBS more power if they simply redirected the gas for cars into powerplants.

Better yet, just burn the crude oil, better still, build nuclear plants, wind farms, etc... Leave the gasoline for other areas.

Over the last 10 years electric cars have been a niche market.

They've been a niche market for the last 100+. Look up Jay Leno's antique electric car.

However the current technology actually allows for wide spread use and the price tag (especially when you include power/fuel expenses) are actually comperable.

Not yet. You can obtain a ~35 mpg gasoline car for around $15k. Zap wants $14k for a truck with a max speed of 25mph, a payload capacity of 770 pounds, and a range of 30 miles. Great for zipping around a warehouse, not so great for commuting in most areas. The Zap-X, which looks like a car has a ESRP of $60k. The Tesla is $100k.

Conversion kits seem to run around $10k, excluding the batteries.

Even if you assume power is free, in many cases battery aging and replacement needs exceed the cost of the gasoline in and of itself.

It is getting better, but slowly.

With near term developments in super capcitors and batteries, the range of applications will increase, the fueling times will decrease and the cost will drop.

Fueling times, at this point, are generally limited by infrastructure. There's not magic bullet out there to make batteries cheap enough to make them the right choice anytime in the near future, I'm afraid.

*IE bloody huge
**lethal very quickly if not done right. I'm thinking 600-1000V. A thousand volts could handle the charge using 'only' 4 or 5 gauge wire. Still going to look and handle worse than a garden hose full of water.

Re:I say!

[GnarlyDoug]

Note sure where you got your numbers from, but I'm going to refute some of them.

Hybrid replacement battery pack costs within a 5 year period: $3000.00 - $5000.00 US

Battery packs for hybrids are generally warrantied for 8-10 years, and they are expected to last the lifetime of the vehicle. To date Toyota claims that they have never needed to replace a battery pack on a Prius due to it simply wearing out, and there are Priuses with over 300,000 miles on them on the road today. So if you need to replace a battery pack, it'll be because you were in a wreck (you should have insurance) or you had a defective battery pack (warranty). You're probably not going to have to pay to replace it. (Cue the exceptions to post.)

Second, maintenance costs for a hybrid are much less. As the link to the hybrid taxi cab experiment shows, while standard maintenance costs were about the same, the unscheduled maintenance costs were dramatically lower, around 19 cents per 100km of driving, vs. around $2 per 100km for the other vehicles. That's with over 60 hybrids, not one vehicle, so it should not be a statistical anomaly. That's big-time savings, and since 'unscheduled maintenance' is going to be a euphemism for stuff breaking, they're more reliable as well.

So no battery pack replacement needed and almost a 50% reduction in total real maintenance and repair costs over the life of the vehicle and a lower failure rate = you're saving thousands of dollars and have less hassle.

Add in the savings for the better gas mileage ($10,000 to $20,000 in savings over the life of the vehicle) and that hybrids are almost free in terms of their cost vs. a regular new car even with the slightly higher premium you pay for them.

One other thing. Hybrids hold their value. You don't take a 30% reduction to the value of your car the moment you drive it off the lot, and used hybrids can go for almost as much as new ones.

Re:I say!

[Rei]

So your 10-20 year lifespan of the battery isn't documented on the website anywhere that I can find.

They've stated they're using lithium phosphate in news articles (example here). Lithium phosphate batteries have a 10-20 year lifespan in normal use. Normal laptop cells have a few hundred to a thousand or so cycles before 50% degradation. A123 cells have 1000 cycles to 5% degradation (in an Aptera, 1000 cycles is 120,000 miles). And everyone I've seen who's talked about using A123 cells in their own experience says that if anything, the spec sheet is too pessimistic. A123 was initially saying "10+ years and 7000 cycles+" for the Volt's pack (which will be a lot more stressed than the Aptera's, since it's a PHEV). Now GM is saying they expect it to be good for 15, and are planning to give it a very long warranty. And even then, you're not talking about the battery dying; you're talking about it being down 20% capacity or so. Spinels can last even longer -- LG Chem expects theirs to be good for as much as 40 years in typical EV use.

There's nothing inherent about batteries that means they have to rapidly degrade. Jay Leno has a 1909 Baker Electric that still runs on its original Edison cells. It all depends on the stability of the battery chemistry. Lead-acid and LiCoO2/graphite li-ion are not stable chemistries. LiP, titanates, and spinels are.

I also note on the Aptera site that the car isn't designed for cold climates.

Says who? Aptera has only said that it's not initially going to be *tested* in cold climates. A123 lithium phosphate cells are rated for -30C for operation and -50C for storage. And lightweight tadpole configurations like the Aptera can do exceedingly well in the snow -- for example, the Messerschmidt KR200 (which is a far more primitive and less stable design). Smaller vehicles have lower moments of inertia, so they're easier to stop. Compare the stopping time on a semi with a typical sedan, for example.

Availability is almost non-existent as well

Availability *is* non-existant because it's pre-production; only the prototypes exist. They've fully raised their final round of funding for production and they brought on board the head of production for the Dodge Viper and Ford GT projects to manage it (a perfect match, as he's used to working with low volume cars with light alloys and composite structures). The first deliveries to customers are scheduled for late this year.

Last, and perhaps most distressing, Aptera offers no warranty on the vehicle.

Wrong. The site explicitly says, "The details of our financing and warranty are still being defined" and "We will announce further information regarding the battery lifespan and warranty policy well before we begin manufacturing the Typ-1 next October.", not "There will be no warranty". How do you have terms on a warranty when there is none? Perhaps you were looking at the terms of use of the *Website*? ("Aptera PROVIDES THIS WEB SITE, AND ALL CONTENT AND MATERIALS ON THIS WEB SITE "AS IS" AND WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, WHETHER EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY, INCLUDING ANY IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF TITLE, MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, ACCURACY OF INFORMATIONAL CONTENT, AND NON-INFRINGEMENT.")

Re:I say!

[PitaBred]

Hybrid GAS cost may be half that of a traditional vehicle, but did you factor in what you pay to charge the batteries up with electricity? No? Try again.

Re:I say!

[BlackSnake112]

Define needs. Just going to work every day, then a small car would work. Hauling all the gear for the small car doesn't fit the bill. Now if you can afford to have more then one car then good for you. A lot of us out there cannot. Renting the bigger car is not an option for a lot of us.

I moved closer to work. Paying more for a lot less just to cut the commute down. I fill up 1-2 times a month with my bigger car. The two prius people fill up once a week at least (according to them). So 47.6 (11.9*4) gallons a month vs 32 (assuming both fill ups). Who is burning more fuel? Usually I fill around 1/2 tank not empty so it is more like 8-10 gallons a fill not the full 16. I figured I give the full amount on both to be fair. The prius people were quite pissed off at me. When I told them how often I fill up. Both prius people have a second bigger car for family trips. The prius is too small for all of them plus their stuff at the same time.

Re:I say!

[electrictroy]

>>"Hybrid GAS cost may be half that of a traditional vehicle, but did you factor in what you pay to charge the batteries up with electricity? No? Try again."

As the saying goes, "People may think you're dumb; don't open your mouth and confirm their suspicions." My Honda Insight doesn't use ANY electricity. It doesn't even have a plug!!! It's 100% gasoline powered, with a battery to capture & recycle any excess energy (example: braking).

"out of anything that grows" ...

[thrillseeker]

well, it should be fun driving the Hummer around in all that future desert such "cheapness" will lead to

Re:"out of anything that grows" ...

[moderatorrater]

I think that you're confused and assuming that this gasoline will add carbon to the atmosphere. In reality, the carbon that's being added to the atmosphere is carbon that was taken out to make the gasoline in the first place. The reason oil's such a problem is that the carbon was sequestered in the earth's crust and not being released until we got to it. In this case the carbon would have almost certainly made it back into the atmosphere, which means it's effectively carbon neutral (although there might be some electricity costs that would add more carbon to the air).

That brings an interesting thought to mind, though. I know that we can't sequester carbon very well in a gaseous form, and that other forms are expensive to produce, but what if we were to grow plants, cut them down, and stick them underground in some salt mines or something?

Re:"out of anything that grows" ...

[Rorschach1]

That brings an interesting thought to mind, though. I know that we can't sequester carbon very well in a gaseous form, and that other forms are expensive to produce, but what if we were to grow plants, cut them down, and stick them underground in some salt mines or something?

It's been done before. Works great, until some stray asteroid happens by and wipes out your civilization, and 65 million years later those scrappy little mammals that survived the nuclear winter in their cozy burrows have evolved a civilization of their own and are busy pumping all your carefully sequestered carbon back to the surface to be burned and released into the atmosphere...

Re:"out of anything that grows" ...

[compro01]

1. yes, corn ethanol is a very bad idea and anyone with brains (i.e. not politicians) knows that.

2. switchgrass doesn't require food-growing-quality land. it'll grow just fine on marginal drought-prone land that is unsuitable for food growing, so no tradeoff needed. put your food crops on the good land and spread switchgrass all over the lousy land, which was likely covered with switchgrass a few hundred years ago anyway.

Re:"out of anything that grows" ...

[Profane MuthaFucka]

Great, we'll get central planning on this right away, and our farmers will receive their new growing orders from the national directorate this winter.

Oh wait, that won't work. Corn and potatoes are going to sell for X dollars a pound, and switchgrass is going to sell for 10X dollars a pound. Farmers with good land are going to grow corn and potatoes when they can grow shitloads of switchgrass on their very fertile land? Come on.

Plus, switchgrass cannot supply our needs. Demand is too high. That means that the prices will NEVER come down to make growing food profitable in relation. Even the holy invisible hand of the market won't save us.

This is a recipe for mass starvation in the world.

I'm willing to pay $2/gallon

[ottawanker]

I'm willing to pay $2/gallon for the opportunity to use the 50% efficient stuff.. Why wait until you reach your target of $1/gallon when what you have is already cheaper than normal gas?

Re:I'm willing to pay $2/gallon

[aliquis]

For the consumer or in some huge volume?
1 US gallon = 3.78541178 litre

Over here in Sweden the taxes put the gasoline price at something like 12.49-12.99/litre in this town right now according to a webpage.
Say 12.70 sek / litre * 3.785 = 48.07 sek.
8.36$ / gallon in the gasoline station.

So yes, people would gladly pay 2$/gallon here. In face people already pay almost 1.5 $ / litre for etanol/E85. (And we do have tax reduction / no taxes(?) on that.)

Re:I'm willing to pay $2/gallon

[CowboyNealOption]

... I, along with a few million of my closest friends, would literally shit bricks....

So this would be a boon for the construction industry as well?

Re:I'm willing to pay $2/gallon

[Valdrax]

Because gas is cheaper than even the USD 1.00 figure. Some countries see prices below USD 0.50 . This is purely because these countries subsidize fuel costs as part of public welfare programs.

See here for a nice, detailed breakdown, week-by-week of gas prices in California. Admittedly, CA is one of the most expensive gas markets in the country, but as of April 21st, $3.08 of $3.85 in average gas prices there come purely from the fuel itself. 11 cents goes to marketing & distribution. 66 cents goes to taxes (many of which rise with fuel costs).

Dropping $3.08 to $1 or even $2 would be a *huge* savings in gas prices there.

Re:I'm willing to pay $2/gallon

[N1ck0]

Because they don't have a process... According to the article they can make this high-octane cellular extraction in small quantities.

This is not a large scale production process running at 50% capacity, its an lab-scale process which can see a 50% energy extraction. Extracting more energy might require a completely different method.

Also where they heat the cellulose 1000 degrees per second will probably not scale very easily to the hundreds to thousands of gallons needed in mass production (its easy to do to a few ounces...a lot harder for a few gallons).

Re:I'm willing to pay $2/gallon

[Zymergy]

Remember that we use "Heat Engines"... The more BTU's per gallon of fuel translates into more miles per gallon!
With the new mandate for 35 MPG cars on the horizon, I'd imagine they will be using Diesel. (Anyone notice the new Volkswagen "clean Diesel" commercials?)
Also, the US Government pays a $0.50 per gallon as a subsidy. (I think this is at the production level). Otherwise, Ethanol production could not compete with oil.
FYI:
Methanol 64,600 BTU per gallon
Ethanol 84,600 BTU per gallon
Gasohol 120,900 BTU per gallon (10% Ethanol to 90% Gasoline)
Gasoline 125,000 BTU per gallon
Biodiesel 130,000 BTU per gallon
Diesel 138,700 BTU per gallon
Most from this page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasoline

Re:I'm willing to pay $2/gallon

[cyclopropene]

How much of that $3.50 is tax? It varies by state. National average is $0.42, of which $0.184 is federal (at least in 2002).

Huh What?

[tgd]

FWIW, we do NOT have an infrastructure for distributing liquid fuels that are predominantly ethanol... thats one of the real big problems. It corrodes the living sh#% out of virtually all of our liquid fuel transportation infrastructure.

Cheap ethanol is good if the production of biomass to produce it doesn't displace food production, and $1/gallon would certainly be nice, but we have to be realistic about ALL the problems an ethanol-based fuel economy will entail... replacing all the pipelines being just the start.

Re:Huh What?

[Dr. Eggman]

The article appears a bit vague, but it appears they are not talking about running ethanol through the pipelines, but gasoline. Infact, talking about converting Biomass into gasoline, not ethanol. Atleast that's the idea I got from the quote:

Huber and his colleagues aren't the first to derive hydrocarbons from renewable sources. Virent Energy Systems, for example, just signed a deal with Shell to produce gasoline from plant sugars and expects to open a pilot facility in the next two years. UOP is working on a project to produce jet fuel for U.S. and NATO fighters from algal and vegetable oils. But Huber's work stands out as likely the first direct conversion from cellulose, opening up as potential fuel sources virtually anything that grows. Commercialization of the technology may take another five to 10 years, the researchers predict.
...
Developments in so-called "green hydrocarbons" arrive as ethanol continues to come under attack as expensive, inefficient and a contributor to rising food prices around the world. (More than a billion bushels of corn are diverted to ethanol production each year.) "There's certainly a lot of historical inertia for ethanol. It's gotten us off to a great start, but I can't see the country transitioning to flex-fuel," says John Regalbuto, director of the Catalysis and Biocatalysis Program at the National Science Foundation. "I almost think, long term, that we will go to plug-in hybrids. But we're still going to need diesel and jet fuel--you can't run trains or fly planes with ethanol or hydrogen." But, then again in describing the process it goes back to vague (emphasis mine:)

Using a catalyst commonly employed in the petroleum industry, Huber and his colleagues heated small amounts of cellulose very quickly for a matter of seconds before cooling it, producing a high-octane liquid similar to gasoline. The article seems to be trying to distance this technology from ethanol, stating that ethanol has its problems and that it's not going to be the right direction

Re:Huh What?

[jawtheshark]

*blink*
I know that ethanol has some solvent properties, but corrosion? Yeah, it will dissolve the paint of your car.... Not nice, but don't spill. I have an ethanol powered oven. It's for decoration only, even though it puts out a substantial amount of heat. The ethanol I filled in the stainless steel furnace is still there. I can turn it on anytime I want. No rust (=corrosion) whatsoever.

So, frankly, the typical concrete gas bunker won't corrode. It also won't corrode any of our modern car tanks because they're plastic and ethanol and plastic get along quite nicely.

Yes, in pure gasoline cars it will attack the rubber in the engine. No, this has nothing to do with what you mention.

I really must be missing something.

Re:Huh What?

[hey!]

It also doesn't address the ongoing problem of releasing CO2 into the atmosphere at a rate that can't be reabsorbed naturally.

The carbon in biomass comes from the atmosphere. You have to take it out of the atmosphere before you put it back into the atmosphere via your tailpipe. Increasing the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere by burning biomass is like pulling yourself up by your bootstraps.

Of course the reabsorption process isn't natural, but that's the point. It kind of balances the books on humanity's use of atmospheric carbon.

Re:What?

[Anonymous Coward]

this process uses non-feedstock/waste materials so it shouldn't have an impact on food supplies.

doing research != speaking well

[l2718]

Quoth the scientist:

"Crude oil looks more similar to gasoline than biomass does"

More importantly, if they get 50% of the cellulose's energy into hydrocarbons then processing twice as much cellulose should given them a $2/gallon hydrocarbon. What they should tell us is whether a gallon of their hydrocarbon mixture has the same amount of energy as a gallon of oil For example, a gallon of ethanol has about 2/3rds the energy of a gallon of regular gasoline, so if it's only priced at 2/3rd the price of regular it won't break even.

The bottom line: we need price in dollars per kilojoule, not in dollars per gallon.

Re:doing research != speaking well

[N1ck0]

The 50% efficiency is how much of the biomass energy they can convert to the "high-octane liquid". Can they get to 100%? No...you cannot extract 100% energy from something, also the process that is getting you 50% yields will probably require much more energy then what you are doing right now.

Also does this $1/gallon figure account for the energy needed to raise/cool this biomass the 1000 degrees per second? Also the cost of getting the biomass? And the cost of collecting (and probably liquifing/straining/etc this biomass. Is this $1/gallon number include current tax rates for transportation maintenance? I have a funny feeling that that might just be the cost to actually execute the refinement assuming everything else was free.

Thanks ethanol for world hunger and beer prices

[InvisblePinkUnicorn]

The minute the government stops subsidizing the production of ethanol, not only will farmers start moving back to wheat and other foods that the world needs, but ethanol will be forced to survive on its own next to gasoline, and it will vanish in the puff of bad logic that brought it into existence. Let's not forget the recent story about increases in beer cost as farmers switch over to corn for ethanol. Also informative is this recent Time magazine article debunking the benefits of ethanol. This is just another political stunt at the expense of the world's food crops and my inebriation. When will Congress learn that manipulating the economy never has the desired effects.

Re:Thanks ethanol for world hunger and beer prices

[prxp]

Also informative is this recent Time magazine article debunking the benefits of ethanol. I've read the article and I'll tell you I was amazed... read on. First of all, I saw no hard evidence that would debunk the benefits of ethanol nor anything that would imply that more ethanol = less food (though I won't go into the matter itself, the article is just poor on defending these arguments). Also, a good chunck of the article is spent on describing Brazil's vanguard on ethanol and its problem with the Amazon forest (separately). What it is funny (not to mention outrageously stupid) is the way the author goes about these two separate things: he tries to make a correlation between the two issues like the fact Brazilian vanguard in biofuels is somehow destroying the Amazon Forest! It's simply stupid! Come on! There's no correlation whatsoever! Brazilian ethanol program is almost 30 years old and the problems the Amazon Forest faces (now and before) haven't increased nor decreased because the program started and kept going. Hell, sugar cane is hardly one of the most profitable business that comes from deforestation, let alone the core reason for the problem! This Time Magazine article only debunks one thing: the ability its author has to assess his readers' naiveness.

Re:Thanks ethanol for world hunger and beer prices

[CorSci81]

Malted barley prices have been going up for microbreweries as a result of farmers planting corn instead of barley. My family runs a small craft brewery and we've been feeling this pinch firsthand along with the shortages/high-prices of hops. It's not just the big players that will have to raise their prices.

And FYI corn can be a perfectly valid adjunct if you're trying to achieve a specific flavor. We produce a blonde ale that uses a corn adjunct for that purpose. It just shouldn't be used solely for the purpose of making the beer cheap by replacing as much malted barley as possible. Besides, rice is a more popular adjunct for that since it imparts less flavor/color.

Re:no way.

[Smidge204]

Gotta be careful with how they're defining "efficiency" here.

They are not talking about thermal efficiency, they are talking about conversion efficiency: how much of the input gets converted to final product. The thermodynamic limits on efficiency do not apply here, so 100% is technically doable.

=Smidge=

PopMech!

[Anonymous Coward]

I thought this was a joke, then I saw that the article was in Popular Mechanics and thought "whew" (because every story that has ever run in popular mechanics about technologies of the future has been spot on).

Re:What?

[kithrup]

Different articles. First link is about a company that can convert ethanol to gasoline. (And the advantage of that is that you don't have to buy a new car -- your existing car, which runs on gasoline and not ethanol, will still work with the new fuel.)

The fourth link is about converting cellulose (i.e., plant material) into something that seems to resemble gasoline. The 100% efficiency they're talking about isn't thermodynamic -- they're talking about doing 100% of the conversion that is possible, when they're doing 50% of it right now.

I still don't trust it; as someone above commented, with gasoline costing more than $3/gallon in the US right now, being able to do it for $2/gallon would mean they could raise as much financing as they could produce. (On the other hand: one of the reasons gasoline is so expensive in the US is because of the refineries, and this stuff would -- one presumes -- still need to be refined. And might need a different refinery, which would raise the cost even more. The article, sadly, doesn't give any significant details.)

It's amazing how many things are 5-10 years away.

i want a car that runs on patent applications

[blair1q]

if i had a car that ran on patent applications, i could literally shovel garbage into it and get wherever i needed to go

and it wouldn't cost anything

heck, they'd pay me to take the stuff away

It just isn't true

[rudy_wayne]

"ethanol demand in general is only adding to the worldwide food crisis."

Utter bullshit. Consuming crops that are grown entirely in the U.S. cannot create a "worldwide food crisis". Unless you believe that the U.S. is responsible for supplying food to people too lazy and stupid to grow their own.

Re:It just isn't true

[Cyberax]

USA also _buys_ food in other countries. Reduced internal food supply causes less exports and more international purchases.

I just tried this E85 stuff.. it sucks

[bill_kress]

I just bought a car that happens to take this E85 ethanol combo gas.

It dropped my mileage from city 22 to like 16, highway 30 to 22.

It was a little cheaper due to government subsidies ($2.77 vs $3.30 at the time), but it didn't come close to breaking even with the drop in mileage.

Overall very disappointed.

Where are the plug-in hybrids?

Re:I just tried this E85 stuff.. it sucks

[Idiot with a gun]

Right. That's always been the argument against plug in cars "The power comes from the dirty powerplant!"

Except, there's one simple fact, larger power plants will always be cleaner, and more efficient per Watt of power, than cars will be. So while you still need the energy from somewhere, it's cheaper, and cleaner overall. However, it'll greatly increase the strain on an already drawn-thin power grid. Nothing is free.

Re:I just tried this E85 stuff.. it sucks

[manitoulinnerd]

they switched to E10 and didnt tell anyone, but now everyone is experiencing a 2-25% reduction in fule efficiency. I find it hard to believe that E10 has caused a 25% reduction in fuel efficiency. E10 symbolizes 10% ethanol and 90% gasoline. Even if E10 released no energy at all during combustion the largest drop it could account for would be 10%. When it comes down to E10, it is not done for any other reason than to help reduce your carbon footprint.

Re:I just tried this E85 stuff.. it sucks

[bill_kress]

As I understand it, to recharge an electric car in your garage costs you an equivalent of less than $.50/gal--so screw green.

But does anyone have validation of this?

CELLULOSE != FOOD

[jnadke]

[rant]

Cellulose is plant matter. You know. Grass clippings, corn stalks, etc. I see you really must like eating GRASS CLIPPINGS along with the COWS. Similar intelligence, perhaps?

CELLULOSE IS NOT FOOD!

Cellulostic Ethanol: Educate Yourself!

[/rant]

Re:no way.

[urcreepyneighbor]

I heard about a guy that knew a guy that got 500%, but a Big Oil company bought all rights to the process, murdered his wife and slept with his dog!

$2/gal to produce = $3/gal at the pump

[Overzeetop]

That's rough, but at $118/bbl, the cost of refined gasoline is somewhere about $2.50/gallon. The $3.50 you're paying at the pump includes distribution and taxes. So you'd pay $3/gallon for a fuel that stores only about 60-65% of the energy as the $3.50/gallon gas your paying now. Not really economical. At their theoretical 100% efficiency, it's about a wash, though you'll still have to visit the pump half again as often to fill up.

Re:$2/gal to produce = $3/gal at the pump

[timmarhy]

$3/gal not economoical? fuck me i'm paying $1.5 a LITRE. that's about $6.6 USD/gal.

sign me up if you can make fuel for $3/gal.... or maybe you need to realise there is more to the world then the USA

Re:$2/gal to produce = $3/gal at the pump

[Anonymous Coward]

Oil closed at $119.37 this afternoon , which works out to $2.84 a gallon for unrefined crude. I don't know how you decided that refined gasoline was only worth $2.50, but it really doesn't sound right that refined gasoline is worth 15% less than unrefined crude oil.

And, this article is about the direct production of gasoline from cellulose, not ethanol. It's certainly possible that the energy density would be different than gasoline refined from crude oil, but I really don't think your guess at 60-65% of the density is accurate.

You heard it here first...

[rickb928]

When we can make affordable fuel out of trash, garbage, and untreated sewage, then trash, garbage, and untreated sewage will nearly immediately be in short supply. Cost of the raw material will increase, and make the finished product less affordable.

Pretty soon after that, we will cut down perfectly good trees for no other reason than to make liquid fuels. Darn. There goes the forest. And the parks, etc. Not so good.

It's just not that easy. But it's attractive, and will keep us until we can do the electric car thing and do away with liquid fuels altogether.

Maybe.

Re:You heard it here first...

[ChrisMaple]

Trees are not a step in any efficient process that goes from sunshine to liquid fuel. It takes too much energy to make wood. Some plants are much better at turning light into useable biomass.

Re:This isn't the solution

[cayenne8]

"The best solution would be to eliminate the need to drive by working with major developers in order to have housing and all essential needs within a short distance."

Yeah...let's tear down cities like Houston, and start all over. Right.

Your example of the kids being driven a block to the park is a valid one, but, not the most common. People in the US just don't like being crammed in so close to each other, we like to have houses with yards. And that is in the cities....many prefer to have acres of land, and live further out in the country. Not to mention that many places where you have to go to work, are not places you want to live and raise kids.

I really don't see the US ever going to an all urban way of life. That is just not the way we are....we prefer to have 'elbow room', which necessitates driving distances to work, live and shop.

I have a diesel engine, I run on almost anything.

[Regul8or]

I've been putting used motor oil, hydraulic fluid, transmission fluid, gasoline, solvents, and misc. oils in my truck's tank for years now. I mix in these waste products with clean bio/#2 diesel at a rate of about 33%. Of course I filter down to 20 microns and check for water in my fuel.

When I calculate my fuel mileage based on ONLY how much diesel I actually pay for, I get about 30-33 highway mpg in my 7900 pound 3/4 ton diesel truck.

Gasoline engines are a flawed design and gasoline/ethanol is a flawed fuel. It does have a place such as in motorcycles or small engines. I'll take my diesel powered vehicle any day of the week over some inefficient gasoline powered vehicle.

Re:no way.

[__aajfby9338]

why wouldn't they? claiming ANY process is 100% efficent is plain out lieing.

Only if it's claimed that the thermodynamic efficiency is 100%. The word "efficiency" is also used in other contexts where values of 100% or more make sense, and do not violate the laws of thermodynamics.

For example, home heat pumps are generally given an efficiency rating that indicates the ratio of heat output vs. electrical input (i.e., how many watts of heat are blown out the vents divided by how many watts of electrical power are consumed). This value is usually greater than 100%, but this is OK because this definition does not include the heat which is removed from the outside air and transferred to the indoor air. In other words, that specific definition of efficiency does not consider the complete system, and it deliberately ignores some of the energy that's being consumed.

Heat pump efficiency is defined this way because it allows useful comparisons to other kinds of climate control devices. A plain electric space heater would consume 1000W of electrical power in order to dump 1000W into the room, while a heat pump might only consume 500W of electrical power (I made that number up) in order to dump the same 1000W into the same room. While that doesn't reflect the thermodynamic efficiency of the heat pump, it does let you see that this example heat pump will consume half the electrical power of a space heater in order to heat the same room.

I'm not trying to debate whether the "100%" value in TFA makes sense here, because I haven't read TFA yet. I'm just pointing out that there are valid and honest uses for the word "efficiency" where values of 100% or more make sense, without implying any sort of perpetual motion.

Re:CELLULOSE != FOOD

[N1ck0]

Although collecting large amounts of easy to process cellulose materials will cost money too. You can't just go around picking up everyone's grass clippings and store them, or take a week transporting them. Nature also breaks down cellulose, and dissipates the energy they are extracting. So you would need to gather this material, ship it, process it and/or store it in ways that prevent decomposition....and all that costs money.

And most likely means things like switchgrass farms, or some other dedicated farming, so its concentrated in one place (easy for processing and transport). But then you have the problem of that farm land competing with our food growing farm land...which causes land prices to rise, causing increased food costs.

Cellulosic processing is the way to go.

[MtViewGuy]

I think using enzymes to break down the ENTIRE plant is the way to go if we're going to do biofuels. The reason is simple: by using the entire plant, it means all the agricultural waste from conventional farming can be turned into almost any fuel you can imagine using enzyme processing, avoiding the major issue of having to overgrow corn and sugar cane/beets just to make more ethanol.

Suddenly, all those weeds out there become a biomass base, and farmers will be more than happy to ship the plant waste from growing corn, wheat, rice, etc. to a cellulosic processing plant to turn into biofuels.

Re:no way.

[Smidge204]

Poor grammar, little understanding of the subject, being unjustifiably pedantic AND a Godwin! You're on a roll today!

As others have pointed out, including myself, limits to thermodynamic efficiencies do not apply to physical processes. They just don't.
=Smidge=

Re:Who wants to bet...

[aplusjimages]

I agree. 5 years from now, slashdotters will be linking to this article asking "where did this alt fuel go?"

Re:Who wants to bet...

[Carnildo]

But I wonder how the oil companies would react to this, or even the US government - would it be apathetic.

If the oil companies are at all sane, they'll be investing heavily in this if it's technologically feasable. They don't care where the oil comes from so long as they're the ones refining and distributing it. If they can get feedstock from someplace that isn't perpetually on the brink of all-out war, so much the better.

Re:CELLULOSE != FOOD

[Planesdragon]

You can't just go around picking up everyone's grass clippings and store them, or take a week transporting them. Sure you can. You just need to get the cost of the conversion + transportation to lower than the cost to farm it locally.

But then you have the problem of that farm land competing with our food growing farm land...which causes land prices to rise, causing increased food costs. You have no idea how much ariable land is in the United Sates, do you?

If it was just a question of land, we could feed the entire plant. Just us. Forget India, Europe, China, Africa, or any other breadbasket.

(And tell your parents that their house really isn't worth a quarter of a million dollars, and they should just sell.)

Still at test-tube scale

[Animats]

Here's the home page of the University of Amherst prof who did this. There's a picture of him holding a test tube of synthetic fuel derived from biomass sugars.

I'd be more impressed if he was standing next to a 5000 gallon tank of the stuff. On a small scale, if you're not worried about cost, you can make just about any hydrocarbon from any other hydrocarbon. It's hard to measure operating costs until the process is scaled up. So I'm skeptical of the cost claims.

Oh come on.

[Pendersempai]

Any political benefits politicians could get from the oil business would absolutely pale in comparison to the benefit they could get from promising the electorate $1/gal gasoline. Campaign contributions work at the margins, but not against a headline issue like this.

Careful folks

[Tjp($)pjT]

Don't compare the pump price for gasoline to the $1 hypothetical price for a 100% efficient process (which so far does not exist). After all if we pay at $2.50 a gallon for gas (as a nominal figure) about $0.75 in taxes. And then about 40-50 cents a gallon for the distribution. And then there is recovery of costs also known as profit, of about 18 cents. It varies by state but they go all the way back to minor taxes per gallon at the blending stage to the final additional federal and state taxes at the pump. It is not just the final taxes that are there. You have to dig really deep to find all of them. I will admit I have not looked for a couple years at the whole set of them, but very few taxes are ever reduced or repealed, so I am pretty confident they can be ferreted out with a bit of work. The raw material in this case is one that requires more handling than a liquid does so refining costs are likely higher.

So make sure all the costs are considered when comparing them. Just like sunlight is free, and all those CFLs are mercury laden hazardous waste when spent.

Re:no way.

[AresTheImpaler]

I heard about a guy that knew a guy that got 500%, but a Big Oil company bought all rights to the process, murdered his wife and slept with his dog!

That clearly shows that Big Oil companies are either stupid or into bestiality.. they should have killed the dog and slept with the wife..

Re:Think again

[cayenne8]

"Even assuming we built enough reactors and the bacteria work fast enough, do you have any idea how much organic waste we have to rustle up to make 588 million gallons?"

I do wonder how much organic waste we are just letting go in the garbage every year now, though? I mean, millions of yards get mowed weekly (or more depending on where you live)....not to mention golf courses, stadiums, parks...etc. Then as someone said, we have tons of paper and boxes that are garbage each day. How about recycling most all of that waste paper into fuel?

I'd say at the start...that amount of ethanol, combined with the domestic oil reserves we have....could get us off the world 'grid' pretty quickly. Eventually..we could get off the fossil fuel altogether, but, this would be a huge stop-gap answer.

I wonder how much organic waste we currently just throw in the trash now, which could go for this type of ethanol generation? We could quit using corn for ethanol (well, except for consumption) right away too.

Now, if we could just do away with the fscking corn subsidies, and lift the sugar tariffs we could also kick the HFCS problems we have, get food prices back down a bit, and have real Coke with real sugar again in the US.

nope

[goombah99]

50% efficiency does not imply $2/gallon.

They have to input pre-processing and heat. They don't say where break-even is. Maybe that's at 90% efficiency.

Re:nope

[jgoemat]

It kinda does imply $2/gallon, but it's the OUTPUTs that would keep that from being the case, not the inputs.

If you heat too fast, you make mainly vapors. The sweet spot, about 1000 degrees per second, transfers roughly half the celluloseâ(TM)s energy into hydrocarbons. âoeIf we can get 100 percent yield, we estimate the cost to be about a dollar per gallon,â Huber says. âoeRight now weâ(TM)re at 50 percent. Can we get 100 percent? I donâ(TM)t know. Hopefully weâ(TM)ll bump those numbers up.â

Think of the process like you put x materials in, perform the process, and you get 1 gallon of gasoline at 100% efficiency. At 50% efficiency you can just run the process twice as long and get twice as much output, but still only 1 gallon of gasoline. So given the information they have in the article, they could produce gasoline at $2 per gallon now.

The problem is with the outputs. If you output 100% gasoline, you just pour it into your car and go. If it is a mixture of only 50% gasoline, you have to refine it and remove impurities. That process might be prohibitively costly.

i couldn't have said it better myself

[circletimessquare]

same reason i was apopleptic about the idiocy of hydrogen power. which, as a fashionable topic for science morons, seems to have run its course thankfully

please, science idiots, learn:

if you expend lots of energy manufacturing your energy medium, you are being more wasteful than just choosing a more intelligent energy medium

hydrogen is great, of course, because it burns clean. but it is a b*tch to store and transport, and most importantly, although something clean is coming out of your exhaust, everything that went into getting hydrogen into your fuel tank created more pollution than if you were burning coal in your car

the solution to our energy crisis is nuclear and electric cars

japan and france: show us the way to a cleaner, cheaper energy future, without the security concerns: nuclear

its safer than it ever was (you can walk away from a pebble bed reactor and it will just gradually shut down: no active management needed), and horrible waste is only a product of the usa's hesitance to use breeder reactors (because they make bomb grade materials). but if you use breeder reactors, you have a tenth of the nuclear fuel waste which loses its radioactivity in a few centuries, rather in 10,000s of years, AND you get way more energy output. as uranium runs out, use thorium like india. and as we begin to run out of thorium in a few centuries, mankind better have been able to master fusion power by then, or we are doomed anyways

i think, to provide security to nuclear plants, you would need one one hundredth of the amount of security resources you need now to make sure oil still flows to our shores

or just keep counting the body bags coming from iraq because your mind still believes propaganda about nuclear power based on 1960s technology

Re:i couldn't have said it better myself

[Belial6]

You are quick to call people stupid, but then turn around and get energy generation and energy storage. If you can make clean energy for batteries, you can make clean energy for hydrogen generation.

While I agree that electric cars the way to go, I am not convinced that batteries are the right way to store the energy. The are netoriously environmentally dirty both to make and dispose of, expensive, and and just don't last very long.

It certainly isn't stupid for someone to think that the problems with storing and transporting hydrogen can be solved easier than solving the huge problems with batteries. It is entirely possible that the real solution will be a hybrid solution.

Re:i couldn't have said it better myself

[Mr. Slippery]

show us the way to a cleaner, cheaper energy future, without the security concerns: nuclear

Uh, no, at least not nuclear fission of uranium and plutonium.

its safer than it ever was (you can walk away from a pebble bed reactor and it will just gradually shut down: no active management needed)

No. There's already been one accident with radiation release at a pebble bed reactor, and adding a whole bunch of graphite - the stuff that caught fire at Chernobyl - to a reactor is not a good idea.

the usa's hesitance to use breeder reactors (because they make bomb grade materials). but if you use breeder reactors, you have a tenth of the nuclear fuel waste which loses its radioactivity in a few centuries, rather in 10,000s of years, AND you get way more energy output.

And you have plutonium factories all over the place. If you don't see the problem with that. Google the news for "Iran nuclear". >

And remember that that these plutonium factories would not be built to U.S. safety standards, no; many would be being built in China or other developing nations. If you don't see the problem with that. Google the news for "China contaminated".

And the waste problem remains unsolved.

as uranium runs out, use thorium like india.

Skip uranium entirely. Go to an "energy amplifier", where thorium is hit with a proton beam. It's subcritical - pull the plug and it shuts down. It's proliferation-resistant, and it can even be used to burn up plutonium. And it produces a lot less waste.

Re:i couldn't have said it better myself

[Upaut]

What your missing is that the hydrogen economy is actually a nuclear economy. It would be a seamless transition from whatever energy source is used to derive the hydrogen. Most hydrogen proponents know this, and simply promote hydrogen because there is a good chance that with proper research you could get a greater energy density packed into a fuel cell then a battery, and fuel cells refuel faster then many batteries recharge, enabling the 'pumps' to still be scattered across the landscape.

Remember, "Hydrogen" supporters are "Nuclear Energy" supporters, even if they do not know it yet...

Re:i couldn't have said it better myself

[Rei]

Hey, with the StreetDeck system in my Aptera, I can play the sound of a V8 if I want to hear it ;)

Re:i couldn't have said it better myself

[TheLink]

I figure a better way to store hydrogen would be with around a chain of carbon atoms ;). There's a lot of hydrogen you can store that way.

Either we burn the result, or we figure out how to build filters, fuel cells and catalysts that can handle the result in an environmentally friendly way.

A big benefit of having an electric subsystem is for the regenerative braking.

The benefit of sticking to hydrocarbons would be backward compatibility.

One of the problems is if we use rare catalysts - there might not be enough to go around to put in every vehicle (assuming a believable catalyst recycle rate when the vehicle is scrapped).

Re:i couldn't have said it better myself

[drinkypoo]

And you have plutonium factories all over the place. If you don't see the problem with that. Google the news for "Iran nuclear". >

Actually, you're wrong. That's a POSSIBLE consequence, but not a necessary one. The reactors do not need to be of a type useful for making weapons-grade material in order to be useful for making useful nuclear reactor fuel.

And the waste problem remains unsolved.

The reprocessed waste has a half-life which at least seems manageable on a human time scale, and is not nearly as nasty in any case.

Skip uranium entirely. Go to an "energy amplifier", where thorium is hit with a proton beam. It's subcritical - pull the plug and it shuts down. It's proliferation-resistant, and it can even be used to burn up plutonium. And it produces a lot less waste.

Per your source, This design is entirely plausible with currently available technology, but requires more study before it can be declared both practical and economical.

Re:i couldn't have said it better myself

[Joey Vegetables]

I tend to agree, although I do think as an intermediate step, sufficiently cheap electricity, nuclear or otherwise, also can be used to gasify some of our huge and otherwise very ecologically unfriendly reserves of coal, so that existing ICE and fuel-cell vehicles can continue to run in a cost-effective manner during the transition period.

One thing to keep in mind is that China, Japan, and France already have significant nuclear infrastructure. If we do not begin now to catch up, we will be left behind, and our greatest potential competitive advantages, namely, agriculture, manufacturing and technology, will be lost, possibly forever.

Re:i couldn't have said it better myself

[Eivind]

Oh really ? You don't feel a -TINY- bit dishonest here ?

I state "perhaps 1% of the energy-density", you quote a site that says: The best mass-market rechargeable batteries today have an energy density of ~160Wh/kg. Next generation cells are expected to have energy densities of a few hundred Wh/kg. Gasoline has an energy density of ~12,000 Wh/kg In case your math-skills are down, 160/12.000 is pretty much in the 1% ballpark I mentioned.

I was talking about actual existing batteries by the way, not fantasy-ones. There are no cars available powered by fantasy-batteries. When there are, these things may change.

Furthermore, the article compares hypothethical FUTURE battery-cars with poor examples of TODAYS internal-combustion engines. For example, it quotes tank-to-wheel efficiencies at 20%, which is not even state of the art TODAY.

A perfectly normal modern diesel does 30%. More radical designs (still ones on the market TODAY) like hybrid diesels can do 45%. And there is no reason to assume that batteries will shortly more than double in performance whereas internal combustion based vehicles will make no progress whatsoever.

It is even -more- wrong in areas where heating is desireable, like 2/3rds of the year where I drive: Some of the "loss" in tank-wheels efficiency is used in heating the interior of the vehicle, defrosting windows etc.

So, in short, the article claims "equal" performance (86Kwh delivered from 350Kg of machinery), whereas the reality, if you buy best-of-breed from internal-combustion and batteries TODAY is more like, the battery-powered thingie will have 1:6th the range of the IC-one, and it'll spend twice the mass-budget to do that. Which isn't so bad. Where it gets ugly is when you add in that the IC can be completely retanked in a minute, whereas TODAYS electric vehicles need multiple hours to even do a 75% recharge. (the last few percents take even longer)

But yeah. My 2001 (not even current) Toyota does 750km, and refill in a minute. If an electric vehicle could do atleast 160km (100 miles) and recharge similarily quickly, it'd have a chance. If it could do 250km, recharge in a minute, the IC-cars would be dead.

You're right that people should take breaks when driving anyway, but the thing is, with 100 miles range, it means the thing is empty in a -single- hour of driving (okay, make that 1.5 for those of you not in germany), and with gas-stations being spread thin in some areas, there's a small margin. Signs with "last gas-station for 50miles" aren't rare where I live, so it WOULD be very impractical to need to stop at precisely timed intervals, and very often.

Re:I have a diesel engine, I run on almost anythin

[UnanimousCoward]

How are your emissions?

I've been putting used motor oil, hydraulic fluid, transmission fluid, gasoline, solvents, and misc. oils in my truck's tank for years now.

Destroy This Technology!

[rocketPack]

Burning hydrocarbons is not the future! It's the past, present, and the whole reason we're in this mess!

What would happen to fuel consumption if gas dropped to $1/gallon? Everyone would consume more, and all the years worth of effort to get people to buy economical cars, avoid wasting fuel, and to think more green would be wasted.

We DO NOT NEED CHEAPER GASOLINE! We need to get rid of it entirely. Zero emissions is the ONLY way forward, and as long as gasoline is economically viable people will continue to burn it and destroy the environment.

Re:Destroy This Technology!

[Nonillion]

I call BULLSHIT on this. It wouldn't matter if gas was $.01 or $10.00 @ gallon, I still have to drive to work, shop and do several other chores. I don't drive any more or less then when I was able to buy gas for $.89 @ gallon. The only difference is that it just costs me much more to do said chores.

Hyberole and empty "hope" vs. physical reality

[FredThompson]

"In sight"? Hardly. The only way to make gasoline is to distill hydrocarbons. As usual, the hyperbole of the title obscures the actual article. $2/gallon combustible organic fuel which is very inefficient compared to gasoline is the real situation. "Hope" of reaching $1/gallon and 100% efficiency is just empty hope

As long as it's ethanol, it's going to be monstrously expensive to transport. Ethanol is, essentially, a food product which rots.

If this process can help make with turning coal and other high-carbon materials into actual gasoline, it might be interesting.

However, do not underestimate the physical space and cost to build new fuel processing factories. No matter what, the world's energy needs will increase.

The goals should be to focus on the most effective methods of converting physical substance into harnessed energy, not the fantasy of "clean" energy. Think of all the people who bought or promote electric vehicles claiming they are "clean". That idea is beyond stupid. The energy has to be created somewhere then distributed. All distribution systems have loss. They might be "cleaner" at the point of use but they are not gross clean.

The cleanest energy would be something like wind or water power. They're not efficient and they can't power wheeled vehicles sufficiently. That leaves the concept of combustion in some form. Little pebble reactors in vehicles? Forget it. That leaves the process of a controlled burn. What is the best substance to burn considering infrastructure, portability and energy return aspects? Hydrocarbon. That's all there is to it.

Having said that, for static location energy needs like an electric grid, there could be some advantage to biomass conversion or forms of incineration when they are also used as a way to reduce the expense of handling trash. They'll never be as efficient as burning hydrocarbons because it takes energy to turn them into hydrocarbons. Oil and coal are the closest forms to carbon which are viable fuel sources for combustion.

Terra Petra - burying your stable carbon biomass

[filmotheklown]

This is being done/worked on. It's called Terra Petra "Black Earth" and is being developed for use in biomass gasification.

Basically you gassify carbonaceous materials such as wood or other biomass. Instead of allows all the biomass to be consumed in the process, you pull a portion of the charcoal out of the gasification stream and then disc it into the earth. Charcoal, being a fairly stable version of high density carbon will remain in this state for a very long time and in a sense becomes fertilizer for the soil (over time). Charcol is a more stable form of carbon than just raw biomass which will otherwise decay into CO2 as it rots

In fact, in the amazon, this has been going on for 1000s of years and is a way to make otherwise not so great tropical soils fertile.

Gasification combined with Terra Petra has the possibility of not only being carbon neutral, but carbon negative. If you gassify existing biomass (in particular the waste wood and garden clipping stream of most municipal wastes) you start out carbon neutral. The carbon in the waste stream is already destined to either be incinerated or 'mulched' which releases the carbon as CO2 either way.

If during the process of gassifying this biomass stream, you extract a portion of the charcoal that is created, you can then sequester it in the soil. Thus becoming carbon negative to the extent you pull from your gassifier. The trade off is that you have less carbon to convert to CO for use as a producer gas.

Incinerator

[CustomDesigned]

Here in Fairfax, VA we have an incinerator. It burns the trash to make electricity, and separates out glass and metals for resale, and traps and separates gases in the exhaust for resale. All the separation is run by its own electricity - and it sells the excess of that also. It is a highly successful installation. They are digging up landfills for more trash to feed it.

The only drawback is that the landfills are being refilled with ash, and eventually will run out of room again.

Re:Incinerator

[lorenlal]

How bad is the ash? Could it be used (say in fertilizer or household items)?
Or am I a moron for asking?

Burying plants?

[alispguru]

what if we were to grow plants, cut them down, and stick them underground in some salt mines or something?

This is essence what happens to most of the paper that enters most American homes (newsprint, magazines, junk mail) - it gets put out in the trash, and ends up in a landfill, where it gets buried and takes decades to centuries to break down.

So, don't recycle that paper! Put it in a landfill and sequester that carbon!

Re:Burying plants?

[Phat_Tony]

That's great, except that to the extent that it is gradually broken down by bacteria, in a dump, it's done anaerobically, which releases methane gas instead of just carbon dioxide. And methane is 20 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than CO2. Dumps emit a whole lot of methane, which more than offsets any carbon sequestration going on there.

Re:I have a diesel engine, I run on almost anythin

[Jeff DeMaagd]

You make a diesel sound like a panacea. It's not. There are clear benefits, but ignoring the negatives doesn't do us any good.

Even the best diesels emit particulates, which aggravates breathing problems. Then you're putting in all sorts of crap that's not really intended to be burned in a diesel engine and might contain additive compounds that might have toxic combustion byproducts, who knows what sort of pollution you're putting out.

Re:Think again

[Martin Blank]

I've read that switchgrass is about 75 MMBTU per acre per year. Ethanol is around 75,000 BTU per gallon, so one acre of switchgrass could produce about 1000 gallons of ethanol each year. Based on that, we'd need 588,000 acre-years per day, or about 215 million acres (336,000 square miles) devoted to switchgrass.

In 2007, there was something like 90 million acres of corn planted, so this is about 2.4 times the total corn acreage.

If you could figure out a way of pulling off conversion cost-effectively, it might work to some degree, though I'd hate to think what a few big grass fires could do to production. This also presumes that my estimates are correct; I suspect they may understate the issue somewhat.

Re:no way.

[rcw-home]

a heat pump might only consume 500W of electrical power (I made that number up) in order to dump the same 1000W into the same room.

Real numbers, for the curious: Not more than 303 watts, for Energy Star compliant geothermal heat pumps, and not more than 427 watts for Energy Star compliant air heat pumps. The ratio for the first is the Coefficient of Performance (COP) rating - the lowest mentioned there is 3.3, 1000/3.3=303. For the second, it's Heating Seasonal Performance Factor (HSPF), which is the same thing except in BTUs/hr per watt instead of watts per watt. The lowest HSPF is 8.0, or 2.34 watts per watt. 1000/2.34=427.

Re:Recycling needs cheap oil

[Brickwall]

Well, maybe there's something in the Oregon air that just makes people stupid. Here in Toronto, we have mandatory recycling as well, but only ONE truck is needed to pick up the papers, plastic, and glass - it just has three different compartments. The trashmen put paper in one, plastic in another, and glass in a third. What's so hard about that?

Yield != efficiency

[goombah99]

title says it all

Re:I have a diesel engine, I run on almost anythin

[krazytekn0]

Actually most of those things have less emission waste than diesel... He is probably prematurely gunking up his engine. but as far as gaseous waste he's most likely not doing any worse than running straight diesel. I had a diesel volkswagen that would go 40 miles on a gallon of canola... it smelled like french fries.

also of note is the simple fact that diesel engines are so much more efficient than gasoline engines. For comparable power, a diesel engine will push a small car at least twice as far as a gasoline engine. In trucks the difference is not so pronounced because of their larger aerodynamic drag... Not until you get into heavy hauling situations where you're once again fighting the sheer weight of the vehicle much more than the air resistance. Also, diesels have fewer moving parts and typically will run at least 5-10 times as many miles as gasoline engines in similar applications. I've seen a 1991 Dodge D350 with 700,000 miles on it, and it still gets over 20 miles to the gallon.

Recycling SAVES Oil

[Somegeek]

1) The whole point of recycling is to keep from having to drive stuff way out to a landfill. It gets, you know, recycled instead. I believe that Portland has over %50 less waste going into their 'distant landfills' since they have started recycling.

2) If the garbage was not being separated then the one garbage truck would fill up faster and have to make more trips back and forth between the 'distant landfill' and the pickup route.

Think about it. The total amount of garbage didn't magically triple overnight. They didn't suddenly have to purchase and run three times the number of garbage trucks; the existing trucks are just used for different tasks now. I bet the total fuel consumption won't be all that different.

3) Where Portland wastes diesel fuel in the garbage industry is that they have multiple companies serving the same routes which is less efficient than it could be. This would be true whether they are recycling or not.

4) You are seriously underestimating the energy saved by recycling. The energy saved by recycling aluminum cans alone will probably cover all the fuel costs for the whole garbage truck fleet. A can manufacturing industry website states that for every 40 aluminum cans recycled the energy equivalent of a gallon of gasoline is saved.

http://www.cancentral.com/recFAQ.cfm

Please find something more constructive to bitch about.

Re:Econ 101

[jelle]

Um, so a barrel of crude, unrefined oil, including delivery to Cushing, Oklahoma, is about $110 for 42 gallons. That $110/42=~$2.62 per gallon, and also still needs to be refined, really resulting in less than ~20 gallons of gasoline. Of course there are markets for the remaining ~22 gallons of 'stuff', but that $2/gallon raw cost for this 'cellulosic crude' doesn't look so bad at all at today's oil prices.

So either this stuff is already economically feasible, or current crude oil prices are unsustainable...

OT: Asterisks in swear words

[IpalindromeI]

This is completely off-topic for the current thread, but I've always wondered why people do this. Why did you substitute an asterisk for the "i" in "bitch"? There's no swearing filter at Slashdot. It's clear that you wanted to use a swear word, as opposed to using a less "offensive" word (perhaps "pain" in this case, for example). And since none of "batch", "botch", or "butch" will fit semantically, no one is going to mistake which word you meant, so you aren't saving anyone any offense they would have had at just using the correct spelling.