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Terminal Chaos
Ben Rothke writes "While
Terminal Chaos should be shelved in the current events or
business section of a bookstore, it could also be placed in the modern crime
section. After reading it, one gets the impression
that the state of air traffic today could only come due to criminal neglect
or mischief. If
one looks at pictures of airline flights from the 1960s, you will see
well-dressed passengers enjoying their flight. In
2008, barely a day goes by without an incident of air rage, from irate
passengers in the terminal, to those in the air causing flights to be
diverted. Today's airline traveler considers it a
near miracle if his flight arrives on time with his
baggage." Keep reading for the rest of Ben's review.
Terminal Chaos: Why U.S. Air Travel Is Broken and How to Fix It
author
George Donohue and Russell Shaver
pages
240
publisher
Amer Inst of Aeronautics
rating
10
reviewer
Ben Rothke
ISBN
978-1563479496
summary
Fascinating look at the current state and problems with the US air traffic system
The
reasons for the meltdown in the air traffic system are
complex. The book names a number of reasons for
today's chaos.
Some of these include airline deregulation, multiple governmental
agencies with no central oversight or responsibility, multiple corporate
entities with conflicting agendas, an air traffic controllers union resisting
change, a technologically outdated air traffic control system, and
more.
While the public perception in the US is that somewhere out there, government officials are looking out for passenger's rights, the reality is there is no one looking out for them. Unlike their European counterparts, air travelers in the US have very few rights. This lack of passenger advocacy along with the other reasons has a huge impact on the economy, in addition to the costs that flight delays and cancellations cost U.S. travelers, which are estimated annually at over $3 billion.
Terminal Chaos: Why U.S. Air Travel Is Broken and How to Fix It is a fascinating book. The authors show a number of ways to fix the current problems. While the book is part case-study, it is also part tragedy, given the tragedy is that Washington lacks anyone with the pragmatism, willpower and audacity to stand up to the unions and powers that be to fix the system. The book lays out in 7 concise chapters the problems, ringleaders, obstacles and challenges that brought us to the state that we are in today.
The authors sum it up best when they note that the distance from New York to Chicago is 635 nautical miles, and when flown by a piston-powered DC-6 with a cruise speed of 315 MPH over 50 years ago, the scheduled flight time was a little longer than two hours. Today, scheduled airlines fly Boeing 737 turbofans at 511 MPH, but book this as a 3-hour flight.
In chapter 4, the authors note that while some flight delays are the result of post-9/11 security issues, the main reason why flying has become so arduous is that the air transportation system, as it is now structured in the US, is untenable from a fundamental business point of view. The government regulated business model is unstable and irrational and planes are purposely overbooked, flights are cancelled for no publicly explainable reason, and no one will offer the flier a sound reason for why these events occur.
Both authors are professors at the Center for Air Transportation Systems research at George Mason University. The book quotes from research done there, which includes suggestions such as to use larger aircraft (something Continental is doing at Newark), along with other market mechanisms. Other research shows that slot exemption, weight-based landing fees and other issues combine to lead to inefficient use of airport capacity, especially as slot-controlled airports, such as O'Hare, Kennedy, Newark, LaGuardia and Atlanta.
In chapter 6, the authors take a no-holds barred approach to NATCA, which is the National Air Traffic Controllers Association. They view NATCA as a stumbling block to modernization, and an organization whose goal is to protect their members, over the public they are supposed to serve. They also question how NATCA gets away with constantly stating that the US air traffic control system is the safest in the world, when it is actually behind Europe when it comes to safety metrics (Europe has .032 hull losses per 1 million departures vs. .049 in North America).
Ultimately, the book notes that the air traffic control problems exist in the fact that there is a perfect storm of airlines, airports, government agencies (FAA, DOT, OMB, DHS), White House and Congress, all of which seem to believe that they don't have the responsibility to fix the problem. Each seems to be waiting for someone else to take charge.
Chapter 7 lists a number of practical ways in which the air traffic control system can be modernized. Some of the suggestions would require significant financial outlays; others simply require all of the parties involved to play nicely together.
Overall, Terminal Chaos is a landmark book, in that it cuts through the complexity of the air traffic mess, and clearly lays out the problem, and possible solutions.
It is a very well-written and extremely well-researched book. It does have a few slight errors. Most noticeably on page 73 when it says that Continental has been in and out of bankruptcy court, while the table on the next page shows that Continental has been out of bankruptcy court for over 15 years. Also, one of the travel tips the authors give is to have a traveler consider using a private aircraft out of smaller, less congested airports. That is indeed a good suggestion, albeit extremely costly, and not financially feasible for most of the flying public.
Terminal Chaos is a book that should be required reading for anyone involved in air traffic and aviation, from passengers to every employee at the FAA. The authors have innovative ideas that should be listened to and implemented; from holding the government decision-makers responsible, to realistic ways to modernizing the air traffic control system. The book is a fascinating overview of what goes on in the skies above us, and in the air traffic control towers around us.
Ben Rothke is the author of Computer Security: 20 Things Every Employee Should Know.
You can purchase Terminal Chaos: Why U.S. Air Travel Is Broken and How to Fix It from amazon.com. Slashdot welcomes readers' book reviews -- to see your own review here, read the book review guidelines, then visit the submission page.
While the public perception in the US is that somewhere out there, government officials are looking out for passenger's rights, the reality is there is no one looking out for them. Unlike their European counterparts, air travelers in the US have very few rights. This lack of passenger advocacy along with the other reasons has a huge impact on the economy, in addition to the costs that flight delays and cancellations cost U.S. travelers, which are estimated annually at over $3 billion.
Terminal Chaos: Why U.S. Air Travel Is Broken and How to Fix It is a fascinating book. The authors show a number of ways to fix the current problems. While the book is part case-study, it is also part tragedy, given the tragedy is that Washington lacks anyone with the pragmatism, willpower and audacity to stand up to the unions and powers that be to fix the system. The book lays out in 7 concise chapters the problems, ringleaders, obstacles and challenges that brought us to the state that we are in today.
The authors sum it up best when they note that the distance from New York to Chicago is 635 nautical miles, and when flown by a piston-powered DC-6 with a cruise speed of 315 MPH over 50 years ago, the scheduled flight time was a little longer than two hours. Today, scheduled airlines fly Boeing 737 turbofans at 511 MPH, but book this as a 3-hour flight.
In chapter 4, the authors note that while some flight delays are the result of post-9/11 security issues, the main reason why flying has become so arduous is that the air transportation system, as it is now structured in the US, is untenable from a fundamental business point of view. The government regulated business model is unstable and irrational and planes are purposely overbooked, flights are cancelled for no publicly explainable reason, and no one will offer the flier a sound reason for why these events occur.
Both authors are professors at the Center for Air Transportation Systems research at George Mason University. The book quotes from research done there, which includes suggestions such as to use larger aircraft (something Continental is doing at Newark), along with other market mechanisms. Other research shows that slot exemption, weight-based landing fees and other issues combine to lead to inefficient use of airport capacity, especially as slot-controlled airports, such as O'Hare, Kennedy, Newark, LaGuardia and Atlanta.
In chapter 6, the authors take a no-holds barred approach to NATCA, which is the National Air Traffic Controllers Association. They view NATCA as a stumbling block to modernization, and an organization whose goal is to protect their members, over the public they are supposed to serve. They also question how NATCA gets away with constantly stating that the US air traffic control system is the safest in the world, when it is actually behind Europe when it comes to safety metrics (Europe has .032 hull losses per 1 million departures vs. .049 in North America).
Ultimately, the book notes that the air traffic control problems exist in the fact that there is a perfect storm of airlines, airports, government agencies (FAA, DOT, OMB, DHS), White House and Congress, all of which seem to believe that they don't have the responsibility to fix the problem. Each seems to be waiting for someone else to take charge.
Chapter 7 lists a number of practical ways in which the air traffic control system can be modernized. Some of the suggestions would require significant financial outlays; others simply require all of the parties involved to play nicely together.
Overall, Terminal Chaos is a landmark book, in that it cuts through the complexity of the air traffic mess, and clearly lays out the problem, and possible solutions.
It is a very well-written and extremely well-researched book. It does have a few slight errors. Most noticeably on page 73 when it says that Continental has been in and out of bankruptcy court, while the table on the next page shows that Continental has been out of bankruptcy court for over 15 years. Also, one of the travel tips the authors give is to have a traveler consider using a private aircraft out of smaller, less congested airports. That is indeed a good suggestion, albeit extremely costly, and not financially feasible for most of the flying public.
Terminal Chaos is a book that should be required reading for anyone involved in air traffic and aviation, from passengers to every employee at the FAA. The authors have innovative ideas that should be listened to and implemented; from holding the government decision-makers responsible, to realistic ways to modernizing the air traffic control system. The book is a fascinating overview of what goes on in the skies above us, and in the air traffic control towers around us.
Ben Rothke is the author of Computer Security: 20 Things Every Employee Should Know.
You can purchase Terminal Chaos: Why U.S. Air Travel Is Broken and How to Fix It from amazon.com. Slashdot welcomes readers' book reviews -- to see your own review here, read the book review guidelines, then visit the submission page.
Airline passengers were the very wealthy elites, now they're not.
Air flight is cheap enough that it has become the trailways bus of today. The reason everything was so nice and dressed up because it was so expensive it selected out the riff-raff.
I know it doesn't fit the current lefty memes, but deregulation made air flight the everyman's mode of transportation.
The reason there are so many problems is that the cost is too cheap.
The price per ticket isn't enough to cover the cost of doing business, so more and more items get cut.
Boarding because a cattle car types of efficiency, service goes down, everybody becomes rushed, the aircraft become packed, and so on.
Don't get me wrong, flying 1000 miles for 3 hundred bucks round trip is great, but lets not kid ourselves. If we want service to go back to the 1960s level of service, the costs should at least be as much as it was in 1960s plus inflation and fuel cost increases.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
While I don't dispute that unions are sometimes a problem, I wonder how much the union is to blame in this case. One hears regular reports of understaffing and impossible work conditions for air traffic controllers, and these seem quite plausible given what an intricate and high-stress job it is together with the antiquated computer systems they have to use, which don't provide very good support. Back in 1980 the main issue in the air traffic controllers' strike was working conditions, not wages and benefits. When Reagan broke the union and fired the air traffic controllers, wasn't that a huge blow to reform?
If one looks at pictures of airline flights from the 1960s, you will see well-dressed passengers enjoying their flight.
I beg to differ!.
In any case, some of it is probably just a reaction to more modern events and mindsets. Nowadays, instead of "Oh, it's a distraught passenger who doesn't like flying" it's "OMGTERRORIST". Airlines overbooking flights and employing shoddy baggage handling techniques doesn't help anything either.
"What do you despise? By this are you truly known." --Princess Irulan, Manual of Muad'Dib
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Airlines? For a moment I thought the title was about utf-8 and scandinavian alphabet configuration mayhem in terminal emulators.
I fly every week, I have never seen a case of air rage, and I have never lost a bag. I think that the case is over stated.
It is true that there are too many small flights, which waste both gas and airport slots. But the overall system works decently well IMHO.
If I'd be forced to guess I would say that the security theater methods actually increase violence on the plane, due to people getting annoyed and doing stupid things. Therefor this security measure might actually cost lives, instead of saving them.
It takes a man to suffer ignorance and smile
Be yourself no matter what they say
You've gone from an argument about the U.S. to cite statistics from North America - which, as you may have noticed, contains other nations. And you've not taken into account differences of flight distances or number of passengers per flight; I would think a much more useful number would be deaths per passenger-mile.
If you're directly quoting an argument from the book, this puts s large hole in its credibility.
Tom Swiss | the infamous tms | my blog
You cannot wash away blood with blood
barely a day goes by without an incident of air rage
That's because 40 years ago, someone who started pitching a violent and/or profane fit in close quarters where other people had paid for a service (like watching a movie or traveling for a few hours) could reasonably expect a sound thumping from someone willing to shut them up. And no jury in the world would give the person doing the thumping a hard time. Shame used to be a useful tool. There was a time when acting like an ass in public carried with it a certain stigma. Now it's celebrated in the news, and is a point of pride in many a music video. This is simply about bad manners made the norm, and a culture of victimhood-as-virtue that provides cover for every mis-step (including the deliberate variety), and which condems anyone looking to deny someone that cover as being somehow cruel. We've become a coddling culture, and this is the price we pay. It's no mystery. Every one of those screaming kids you see in the grocery store today will become the asshat in seat 30B on your flight to Chicago.
Don't disappoint your bird dog. Go to the range.
In 1950 an airline ticket was $325... or about $2800 adjusted for today's dollars... So there was a slightly different class of people
additionally there were significantly LESS people per flight, per terminal, and per airline.
Maybe a better comparison would be modern Airlines to 1960s busses.
... what can be safely explained by bumbling bureaucratic government incompetence.
Part of the Second American Revolution!
I'd much rather they charge people with 2 bags more than they charge me and my 1 bag than I would they charge everybody the same.
The pricing structure of 2007 is not compatible with the fuel prices of 2008; charging Mr. 2 bags is not nickel and diming, it is staying in business.
Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
When information is power, privacy is freedom.
Yeah! That's what we need. Let's thaw out The Duke, and let him and John Cassavetes, and Lee Marvin, and Charles Bronson, and Clint Eastwood, and Chuck Norris be on all the flights they can cover. That will make air travel safer and more enjoyable. At least on those flights.
A smoker who can't handle going without his fix for 6 hours can stay the fuck off my airplane, thanks. If your addictions are so massively out of control that you go into rage mode at 30,000 feet, you should be prosecuted, not coddled. Two pack a day man can get a grip or not fly.
Here's an amusing site y'all can slashdot, comparing flying the 1960s to the present. A few points the guy makes:
Flying was expensive. For example: A round trip ticket between Cleveland and Washington D.C. was about $75. This doesn't sound like a bad deal, until you adjust the fare for inflation: That's over $400 in today's dollars! By contrast, I recently paid less than $100 for a round trip between Cleveland and Washington on one of today's low-cost deregulated carriers.
There was no point in shopping around for the best deal, because all airfares were controlled by regulation. If a roundtrip ticket between Cleveland and Washington was $75 on one airline, it was $75 on all the airlines.
The vast majority of the passengers were businessmen. White male businessmen. Occasional families. Very few minorities, and virtually no women travelling independently.
Food and drinks were almost always served, no matter how short the flight. Because there was no price competition, the airlines had to compete based on service. It was amazing to watch the stewardesses hustle to serve everyone on a quick trip, while constantly tugging at their skirts to retain some modesty.
Sure, that sounds high-class, I guess, if you were a member of the flying aristocracy.
"...The life of everyone on board depends upon just one thing: finding someone back there who can not only fly this plane, but who didn't have fish for dinner!"
OK, air travel has become a horror. But "criminal neglect"? It's not "criminal" that passengers are miserable. "Criminal" would be planes falling out of the sky. But in fact you're safer flying across the country than you are driving to work. Or, if you believe some statistics, brushing your teeth.
I used to love flying; now you couldn't get me on a plane without putting a gun to my head. But as long as people make their travel decisions based primarily on price, airlines have no incentive to make things better. I wouldn't argue with a few protective laws and regulations, but airlines' failure to unilaterally improve things in a hypercompetitive market is a matter of economics, not "criminal neglect".
I have to agree.
I've flown in Europe and Asia as well as here in the USA, and I have to say that it's the worst in the USA.
US: Four hour flight - peanuts and a diet coke.
In the UK I had a flight delayed due to a medical emergency on the plane that was going to be the plane for my flight back to the USA. I don't know if it was the airline or the airport, but either way all of the passengers were given a good-sized voucher for a meal. I was stuffed and not at all thirsty and still had "money" left on the voucher, so it clearly covered that need nicely.
Japan: connecting flight was late. When you are landing from an international flight it doesn't matter if you're just leaving Japan again, you still need to go through security to board another plane. They set up two separate security queues for us to make sure we made our connecting flight to China.
China: Only ever had two delays, one was about 30 minutes with an reason and the other was a couple of hours - no reason needed - the storm was obvious. Two hour flight that happened to be over lunch time - full meal (and quite good, actually - China Southern Airlines). Four hour flight near dinner - full meal again. Both flights had two rounds of drinks and snacks.
The USA's airlines can learn a few things from other nations' airlines.
I read the internet for the articles.
> Why are bus and train routes on time more often than planes?
Never ridden Amtrak, have you? Sometimes the train just doesn't even show up!
Which sort of puzzles me. How do you lose a train?
Your accusation of daily air rage, irate terminal passengers, and diverted flight does not correlate with reality. Do these incidents happen? Absolutely. Do they happen with the frequency you suggest? Not even close.
Further, you seem to place the blame for the above incidents on the airlines alone. As others in this thread have pointed out, comparing 21st-century air travel with the 1950's is absurd. Flying back then was a novelty only enjoyed by those with means. Today, any beer-swilling, uncouth, unwashed, uneducated thug can hop on a plane for what would've been pennies on the inflation-adjusted dollar. This is one reason why I pay for my own upgrades to business class while on business travel. The folks you sit with in business class tend to be (but not always are) polite, educated, and considerate. The legroom and free drinks are just perks compared to not having to deal with someone's advanced case of body odor and lack of manners.
As for baggage handling issues, that's as much the fault of the airport as it is the airline. Of course, what do you expect when the whole darn thing is run by unions? Incompetent, lazy workers are difficult to fire. Hardworking, intelligent ones have to wait in line to get promoted due to union seniority rules.
Another thing: what ever happened to requiring the passenger to be something above the level of a dolt when it comes to carryon baggage and airport security screening? How hard is it to read the damned signs saying "take out your laptops and toiletry items" and "take off your shoes, jackets, and blazers"? Security screeners aren't terribly polite, I'll hand you that, but then again they have to deal with the idiots who march right up to the metal detector wearing shoes, a pound of metal jewelry, and leaving their laptop and/or liquids in their baggage.
Last, consider what you're getting for your dollar. Fuel costs are murdering the airlines right now, yet ticket costs have not kept pace. What do you think that shortfall comes out of?
Airlines are businesses. They must make a profit or go out of business. If customers are so darned unhappy with what they're getting for their money, they're free to try other modes of transportation (bus! Fun!) or go try and start their own airline that does things they way they want them done -- and then go bankrupt.
In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, Make us your slaves, but feed us. - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
Most airlines I've flown with show higher "on time" numbers than the Dutch railways (they are now but have been struggling to reach the mandated 86% while we are repeatedly mentioned to have one of the world's most efficient networks).
It happened to me once, to Moscow. I was offered a replacement flight the same day and only because my visum was about to expire I had not a single hour to spare - our fault (business trip). It happened to a friend of mine once - we rebooked the flight to another BA one ten minutes later.
You don't want to know how often I've had a scheduled train exceed that amount of delay or not even showing up at all. The same for metro, tram or bus services. Obviously I travel more by "regular" public transportation than plane, but I'm really not convinced there's a huge difference per mile/km travelled.
I hardly know of any business that doesn't attempt some sort of useless loyalty programme. And frankly, usually I am disappointment when none is available.
I'm sorry to hear that. I make at least twenty different legs a year and maybe one or two of them cause me a delay. Most of my time wasted travelling by plane is by getting there too early because I don't trust getting there on time - blame that on the other forms of transportation.
If you book your entire flight at once, most airliners offer you compensation. I must admit I'm specifically lucky here, my bank/creditcard company insures me against delays, I get a huge (more than enough) compensation in case I am forced to get a hotel or buy new clothes and toiletries in case of luggage delay. But I must concede the authors could be right here, I believe this is a good European law where airliners are required to compensate you.
Never have I felt this way, except maybe when a combined fire and late arrival delayed a flight of mine after stores had closed at the gate (11pm-ish) and we weren't allowed back to the terminal for refreshments even with the two-hour delay. I filed a complaint and got 50% of my total fare back - the full 100% share of that return leg.
Maybe there's US companies are allowed to treat customers as crap at greater liberty (pun intended), but I seriously doubt it is typical of air travel alone. (Our national railways are required to give refunds as well in case of severe delays. I tried but failed when my 10pm Amtrak train showed up in South Carolina three hours late.)
(Sidenote: I miss the days when travelling to the US was something one would do for fun, in my case 1997/2001/2002. Continental didn't give me my luggage in 2002 when transferring in Atlanta and entering the country, nobody at customs gave me a hard time for entering the country for three weeks without any luggage and in San Francisco it took me all of ten minutes to asked what to do because it also wasn't there. Actually I pretty much assumed that I could just report it, go to my friends and have it deliver ASAP, which is indeed how these things work.
"Terminal chaos" has nothing to do with airliners and airports but much more with those inhabitants of this planet who are so braindead to cause a riot when they aren't sure whether they packed a toothbrush while they really aren't going anywhere where they couldn't buy a new one in virtually every street.
Remember this every time you hear "Mr. Bla, you must board immediately, we're already offloading your luggage" through the terminal speakers, look around you, and then be amazed how airports can function so well with all the idiots using them.
There are all holding out as long as they can, and they are hoping most of their competitor go out of business before they do. When there are only 2-3 airline companies left, the prices will shoot up.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
I personally don't enjoy the actual act of riding/driving/flying from point A to point B in most cases. I consider it a waste of my time and hence my life. If I want to stop a bunch of places along the way I'd prefer it be intentional. You may feel differently and that's fine. I would like to spend my life doing the things I enjoy, not the things you think I should enjoy. Riding a vehicle somewhere is not what I personally enjoy.
...air traffic controllers union resisting change, a technologically outdated air traffic control system... Air traffic controllers are a very conservative bunch. They don't like change. They like to test things *heavily* before putting them into regular use. I like it that way.I briefly worked in ATC research. Whatever neat computer system the scientists came up with, the controllers would look at and say "what do we do when it fails?". And they're serious. If the radars go down they can manage a sector by memory and radio comms. It's very impressive. There are lots of shiney new technology-based answers that just aren't reliable enough. The trouble is, too many people are flying.
Taking a train need not take time. Using the example in the article, if Chicago-New York is 635 nautical miles (=1,175km) then modern trains like the TGV can travel that distance in 4 hours (that is assuming the operating speed of 320km/h, not the max speed of 574.8 km/h). If current flights are scheduled at 3 hours then in this case a train would be far faster since there is no need to arrive 1-2 hours beforehand for your body cavity search plus you start and end at stations which, at least for Chicago, are in the city centre. Other advantages are onboard power, WiFi, cellphone coverage, something to look at out of the window etc.
It's true that the monetary cost of setting up such a network is not trivial but if you factor in the environmental cost of planes the question you might want to ask is can you afford not to?
I find it disturbing that someone would wax nostalgic about assault being a socially acceptable way to deal with public annoyances
So, instead, you find assault by someone ELSE to be acceptable, because they're in a bad mood? Having someone scream at you, throw things, shove people out of their way, physically harass flight attendants, etc... THAT's OK, but laying a hand on them to get them to stop? The horror! Lock those people AWAY for looking to keep civilization civilized without having to call in a public servant, who will arrive in an hour or so. Maybe.
Should I get off your lawn now?
That's your response to a description of a culture that coddles people having angry, violent fits in public? That only unreasonable old people who don't want their property vandalized would also be upset about watching a retail clerk or a flight attendant get abused?
It sounds like empathy isn't one of your strong suits
No, it sounds like YOU are the one with misplaced empathy. You have zero empathy for the 100 people that one loudmouthed, obnoxious jerk can impact when no one stops them from going on some "rage" because they're displeased with the size of their peanut bag, or can't grasp why they shouldn't talk loudly through your $10 movie.
I won't ask you to have some for the parents of said kids
Why? I imagine that some of them - while having been shamed out of ever disciplining their kids - are none the less embarassed by the little punks they've raised. I have a lot of empathy for them, since they're surrounded by teachers, preachers, shrinks, and PBS specials that seek to drown out their commons sense.
_every_ toddler in existence has freaked out in public when it it is least convenient to his/her parents
Yes, and those parents used to grab that kid and march them right out of the movie, or not buy them the ice cream they're screaming about. And where do you draw the line on your use of the word "toddler," anyway? I'm talking about kids as old as 6 or 8 or 10+.
The child is not deliberately trying to offend
No, the child is usually trying to manipulate the parent into a desired action (or cease an undesired action). And parents give in. Big time. As a result, that sense of entitlement sets in very early, and permanently. As does the Drama Queen methodology.
I have been stuck on a transatlantic flight with a colicky infant in the seat behind me
How about a boorish 18 year old loudly repeating over and over (for hours) that Virgin "like, totally SUCKS" for not making her text messaging work while somewhere over the middle of the Atlantic, and throwing a food tray into the aisle when asked if she was done with her meal? I've been stuck with her, too.
Don't disappoint your bird dog. Go to the range.
If any operating employee works more than 12 hours after resting 8 hours, he is outlaw, and will actually end up in jail.
That law was brought about almost a century ago given the high number of accidents that happenned because train crews lacked some sleep.
Of course flying was neater, cleaner, and more pleasant back when only the rich and big business travelers flew. It was essentially a luxury experience back then. Pam Am's Clipper line of flying boats had cuisine and accommodations as luxurious as any you'd find on a big cruise ship. They could afford to with what people were paying. In today's dollars, a Pan Am ticket from San Francisco to Hawaii via Clipper cost the equivalent of $10,000 dollars.
If anyone could suddenly afford to join your local country club, I promise you it'd get louder, busier, and more crowded too.
Life is hard, and the world is cruel
Can flight be made totally safe? No. Machines have a statistical probability of failure, and that will never be zero. In the case of an aircraft, you have a very complex machine, where each part and the various assemblies of parts right up to the complete system each has a probability of failure. You can make a computer program bug-free long before you can make an aircraft fault-free, because computers are not subject to mechanical issues. The logic of a given statement will always produce the same result for the same input, no matter how many times it is run. (The output may be different - a malloc may discover that memory is exhausted - but the logic, the mathematical postcondition, is fixed and immutable.) Even if you spent an infinite amount of money, and took an infinite amount of care, the risks involved in anything physical is going to be non-zero.
Therefore, we can subtract this non-zero value from our totals. The totals become "smaller" only if you think in absurd absolute terms. If you look at how many orders of magnitude above the theoretical minimum you are, you are no longer talking in billionths, but in terms of hundreds, thousands or even millions, depending on the complexity of the aircraft and on pure maths modelling of complexity. Notice not only the change in the number of zeros, but where the decimal point is.
17 per billion flights is a tiny difference in failures. 53% greater risk is a hell of a lot bigger. But if we subtract a baseline value, that percentage goes UP, not down.
It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
(Computers may be subject to some of those, but the software itself is not. You can failover software, it's much harder to failover to another aircraft if yours drops out the sky.)
It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)