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Small Asteroid On Collision Course With Earth

musatov writes "There's talk on The Minor Planet Mailing List about a small asteroid approaching Earth with a 99.8% probability of colliding. The entrance to the Earth's atmosphere will take place October 7 at 0246 UTC (2:35 after this story goes live) over northern Sudan, releasing the energy of about a kiloton of TNT. The asteroid is assumed to be 3-4 meters in size; it is expected to burn up completely in the atmosphere, causing no harm. As a powerful bolide, it may put on quite a show in the sky. For those advanced enough in astronomy to observe, check the MPEC 2008-T50 and MPEC 2008-T64 circulars. NASA's JPL Small Body Database has a 3D orbit view. The story has been already picked up by CNN and NASA."

53 of 397 comments (clear)

  1. Is this really news? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Small asteroids that burn up in the upper atmosphere are far from uncommon. Why is this suddenly notable?

  2. Re:Asteroid? Why not meteor? by tekrat · · Score: 5, Informative

    They become meteors *once* they start to interact with the Earth's atmosphere. Until that time, they are classified as space objects, and the names seem to change dependent upon size and approximate mass.

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  3. Re:Asteroid? Why not meteor? by QuantumG · · Score: 3, Informative

    It's an asteroid until it enters the atmosphere.

    --
    How we know is more important than what we know.
  4. Re:Asteroid? Why not meteor? by Martin+Blank · · Score: 3, Informative

    OK, fair point. I should have referenced meteoroids. But still, aside from a sensational headline, wouldn't this usually be classified as a meteoroid rather than an asteroid?

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  5. it's the end of the world and... by owlnation · · Score: 5, Funny

    Bankers everywhere rejoice!

  6. Re:Oh jeez... by CorporateSuit · · Score: 4, Funny

    No worries,

    2 hours gives CERN plenty of time to aim the LHC at the asteroid and obliterate it with a black hole.

    --
    I am the richest astronaut ever to win the superbowl.
  7. Re:Asteroid? Why not meteor? by sreid · · Score: 5, Informative

    You're right. The Royal Astronomical Society has proposed a new definition where a meteoroid is between 100 Âm and 10 m across.

  8. It's Pluto... by blue+l0g1c · · Score: 5, Funny

    and it wants revenge.

  9. Here's the NASA article by Bragador · · Score: 5, Informative

    Small Asteroid Predicted to Cause Brilliant Fireball over Northern Sudan

    A very small, few-meter sized asteroid, designated 2008 TC3, was found Monday morning by the Catalina Sky Survey from their observatory near Tucson Arizona. Preliminary orbital computations by the Minor Planet Center suggested an atmospheric entry of this object within a day of discovery. JPL confirmed that an atmospheric impact will very likely occur during early morning twilight over northern Sudan, north-eastern Africa, at 2:46 UT Tuesday morning. The fireball, which could be brilliant, will travel west to east (from azimuth = 281 degrees) at a relative atmospheric impact velocity of 12.8 km/s and arrive at a very low angle (19 degrees) to the local horizon. It is very unlikely that any sizable fragments will survive passage through the Earth's atmosphere.

    Objects of this size would be expected to enter the Earth's atmosphere every few months on average but this is the first time such an event has been predicted ahead of time.

    1. Re:Here's the NASA article by fm6 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Objects of this size would be expected to enter the Earth's atmosphere every few months on average but this is the first time such an event has been predicted ahead of time.

      This detail got left out of the story summary, making this sound like a bigger deal than it actually is. This is a routine, mundane event — only the prediction is newsworthy.

    2. Re:Here's the NASA article by Jonathan+McDowell · · Score: 5, Interesting

      This detail got left out of the story summary, making this sound like a bigger deal than it actually is. This is a routine, mundane event — only the prediction is newsworthy.

      What this really means is that the new surveys are looking at more of the sky more frequently and deeper (seeing fainter objects), so now we are starting to catch things hitting the Earth that would have been missed in the past.

      I wouldn't say this is a mundane event though, this is going to be bigger than the majority of fireballs that get seen. Yes, every few months, but most are over uninhabited areas and don't get seen. And they are not tracked in advance - so we'll get to see how big a fireball you get for a body whose size we have a rough idea of (a few meters across).

      For technical updates, see
      http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/mpec/RecentMPECs.html

  10. Good News Everyone... by gooman · · Score: 4, Funny

    Since it is such a small asteroid we can save some money. We don't need to send an all-star cast to blow it up, we only need to send one celebrity.
    I suggest Bruce Willis, since we can save even more money not having to worry about the return trip.

    --
    "Kittens give Morbo gas!"
    1. Re:Good News Everyone... by amRadioHed · · Score: 5, Funny

      Please can we send Tom Cruise instead??

      --
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  11. Re:good by Cyberax · · Score: 3, Insightful

    More likely they'll think it's a divine sigh that they're doing everything fine.

  12. Re:Jesus my chest. by khendron · · Score: 5, Funny

    The next big one could come any time and kill us all. If it was really the end of the world would they let us know?

    I sure that Slashdot would report it at least twice.

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  13. Scary... by ZipprHead · · Score: 3, Interesting

    This is scary to me, not so much that a small asteroid is going to burn up and make a light show, but news of it comes out 24 hours before hand.

    Would a body 10,20,100 or 1000 times the size be detected 24 hours before hitting us? Hell... 72 Hours?

    1. Re:Scary... by The+Master+Control+P · · Score: 3, Funny

      Your microwave takes 6 hours to make popcorn? Dude, you need a new microwave.

    2. Re:Scary... by amRadioHed · · Score: 5, Funny

      Well it was only two hours by the time I posted that, but truth be told I'm out a microwave right now. I make my popcorn by putting the bag on top of my wireless router and firing up a bittorent.

      --
      We hope your rules and wisdom choke you / Now we are one in everlasting peace
  14. Re:Asteroid? Why not meteor? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    a dog

  15. Because the LHC failed... by master5o1 · · Score: 4, Funny

    Because the LHC failed at destroying us all, they sent this asteroid/meteor to finish us off. Seems like this will fail too.

    --
    signature is pants
  16. Re:Asteroid? Why not meteor? by AJWM · · Score: 3, Informative

    It's an asteroid until it enters the atmosphere.

    No, if it's less than 10 meters diameter it's only a meteoroid.

    --
    -- Alastair
  17. Re:Asteroid? Why not meteor? by fm6 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Without the sensational headline, who would care?

  18. Re:Jesus my chest. by morgan_greywolf · · Score: 3, Funny

    The odds of it landing on you even if were tough enough to survive atmospheric entry are pretty remote.

    The odds are astronomical, even! Hell, the odds are on a galactic scale! Why, the odds are so big, they make space look small!

    Thank, you, thank you, I'm here all....Hey! What's with the giant hooooooooook....

  19. Re:Testing tractor beam theory. by Fluffeh · · Score: 3, Informative

    Firstly the mass of a satellite would not generate enough of a gravity well to nudge any object off a crash course with the earth. Secondly, as the object in question will be travelling at around 12.8km/s (That's just under 8 miles per second if you are American). The sort of gravity needed to change that trajectory considerably would likely cause much much more problems than this little lump of rock could ever cause.

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  20. Re:Bomb Sudan!!! by corsec67 · · Score: 3, Funny

    I'm sure the US has been waiting for a chance to bomb Sudan. Now they don't have to do anything!!!

    And in other news, the asteroid was found to have large amounts of Naquadah in it.

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  21. We're all going to die! by HangingChad · · Score: 4, Funny

    a small asteroid approaching Earth with a 99.8% probability of colliding

    O-M-G We're all going to die! It's the end of the world! Run! Agh, forget that, you'll just die tired! I'm freaking out! I'm freaking out!

    The asteroid is assumed to be 3-4 meters in size...

    This has been a test of the emergency end of the world system. Has this been the actual end of the world you would have been given explicit instructions to bend over and kiss your ass good bye.

    This concludes this test of the emergency end of the world system.

    --
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  22. Re:Asteroid? Why not meteor? by SEWilco · · Score: 5, Funny

    If a comet is on the ground, we call it a glacier.

  23. Re:Asteroid? Why not meteor? by MyLongNickName · · Score: 3, Funny

    So then, would a big asteroid just be an aster? Or .... never mind.

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  24. Re:Asteroid? Why not meteor? by xstonedogx · · Score: 4, Informative

    Wrong, it's a meteoroid in space, a meteor in the atmosphere, and if any of it makes it to the ground, it's a meteorite.

    It's never an asteroid because it's not big enough.

  25. Re:Jesus my chest. by sam_v1.35b · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The next big one could come any time and kill us all. If it was really the end of the world would they let us know?

    "They" is a nebulous concept that in this case includes tens or hundreds of thousands of professional and amateur astronomers across the globe. A big asteroid on a collision course with Earth would be noticed by many people as it got close, so I'd expect we'd all know about it.

  26. Re:Asteroid? Why not meteor? by nomadic · · Score: 3, Funny

    Then once they've fully entered the atmosphere astronomers refer to them as "Cosmic World Destroyers." It's all very scientific.

  27. Re:I hope it hits Barack Obama by tekrat · · Score: 4, Funny

    Well, call me a Washin'ton out-cider, don'cha know, betcha', shucks, all I gotta' do is wink and sure, by golly, that asteroid'll collide with Obama fer sure. 'Cause he's a terrist celebrity, by golly, gosh, so dangerous, and I'd like ta' ignore that question and talk 'bout energy.

    Sincerely;
    Sarah Palin

    --
    If telephones are outlawed, then only outlaws will have telephones.
  28. Re:Jesus my chest. by Pichu0102 · · Score: 4, Funny

    And at least the first report would come in only a few days after it happened!

    Oh wait..

  29. Re:Asteroid? Why not meteor? by AikonMGB · · Score: 3, Funny

    I stand corrected; had my oids, eors, and ites crossed.

  30. Re:Asteroid? Why not meteor? by freeabelian · · Score: 5, Informative

    "A very small, few-meter sized asteroid, designated 2008 TC3..." "It is very unlikely that any sizable fragments will survive passage through the Earth's atmosphere..." Let's pretend that "few-meter-sized" means 3m in diameter, that the space rock is perfectly spherical and will hit the Earth's surface in one piece. Mass of asteroid = density*volume = (3000kg/m^3)*(4*pi*(1.5m)^2/3) = 28274.334 kg (Density data from an eyeball-average of table in http://aa.usno.navy.mil/faq/docs/asteroid_masses) If it hits the surface at 12800m/s, then: Kinetic energy = .5*mv^2 = 2316233431638.683 J ~ 2316 gigajoules 1 ton TNT = 4.184GJ (from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joule), so the meteorite impact is roughly 553.6 tons of TNT. Caveat emptor: many, many approximations.

  31. Re:Asteroid? Why not meteor? by CptNerd · · Score: 5, Funny

    A horrible violation of the laws of God and Man...

    --
    By the taping of my glasses, something geeky this way passes
  32. Cost! by Wolfier · · Score: 4, Funny

    Asteroid is free, Meteor is expensive - costs anywhere from 50 to 99 MP to cast, depending on which FF you're playing.

    I'd use an Asteroid over Meteor any day.

    1. Re:Cost! by DavidD_CA · · Score: 5, Funny

      I'm playing on the Super Nintendo.

      It's called METEO, you insenstive clod!

      --
      -David
  33. Re:Asteroid? Why not meteor? by actionbastard · · Score: 3, Informative

    By recent definition this object should not be classified as an asteroid, but a meteoroid. Meteoroid is what the object is when travelling in space. Meteor is the visual phenomenon that you see as the object enters the Earth's upper atmosphere and frictional heating causes the surface of the object to melt and then form a plasma around the object. Meteorite is the remains of a meteoroid that entered the Earth's atmosphere and reached the ground.

    It is entirely possible that this meteoroid -depending on its composition, stony, stony-iron, carbonaceous chondrite, or iron/nickel-iron and its velocity and angle of incidence to the Earth's atmosphere- could reach the ground and form a sizable crater. The accepted figure for crater size is roughly 25 times the diameter of the object at the time of impact with the surface. The Barringer Crater was formed by an object estimated to be approximately 50 meters across at the time of impact. If this object reaches the ground at one-half of its present estimated size, it could form a crater 35 to 50 meters across. It would be quite the show if one were within a mile or two of the impact.

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  34. Re:Asteroid? Why not meteor? by sukotto · · Score: 5, Funny

    So, a Dwarf Asteroid then?

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  35. Re:Asteroid? Why not meteor? by MichaelSmith · · Score: 3, Funny

    Then once they've fully entered the atmosphere astronomers refer to them as "Cosmic World Destroyers.".

    But only for a short time.

  36. 1 in 20 chance it'll be bigger than expected by jmichaelg · · Score: 4, Interesting

    5% of the meteors are iron. Iron is both denser and darker than the far more common stony meteor which means if the asteroid is made of iron, it'll be bigger than expected because the size estimates are based on the amount of light the asteroid is reflecting. If it's iron, its higher density, combined with its larger size, will improve the odds that some remnants will make earth fall.

    If it makes earth fall it'll be by far, the most valuable meteorite ever since it's the first asteroid whose arrival was predicted. It'll literally be money from Heaven for whomever finds a piece.

  37. Re:Awesome! by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 4, Informative

    One thing I've wondered, those small asteroids that hit the earth, say that land and are about the size of my fist, did those burn down to that size from a bigger size, or are there trajectories that it could land mostly without burning up. Like if it goes in at a really steep angle, could a rock the size of a basketball before it enters be about the size of a basketball when it lands, or is that pretty much impossible?

    Yes they "burned down". Yes, there are trajectories that let things land without burning up. But they make for lousy shows, since it requires the rock to skim the outer atmosphere just deep enough to slow below escape velocity, and then slowly (over a period of months or years) lose enough more energy that they reenter permanently. If that happens, and if they're metallic, and if they're really extremely spherical (no hot spots other than the obvious one - out front), then maybe they can make it to the ground substantially intact. Odds - well, literally astronomical.

    --

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  38. Re:Asteroid? Why not meteor? by sreid · · Score: 5, Funny

    size challenged asteroid

  39. Re:Asteroid? Why not meteor? by emagery · · Score: 3, Funny

    What... the 'roid will dramatically increase the oxygen content of the planet? (insectoid respiratory systems are terribly inefficient, hence drastically limiting their size) ... ok, well that last bit kinda ruined the intended joke... except, I didn't think anyone would get it otherwise... *throws hands up in air in self frustration* ... btw, did it hit yet?

  40. Re:Jesus my chest. by KGIII · · Score: 3, Funny

    Don't get me started on the "if I was a god" thing... If I was a god you'd best get sacrificing some virgins and stuffs.

    --
    "So long and thanks for all the fish."
  41. Abandon hope all yee who live! by supernova_hq · · Score: 5, Funny

    Oh crap, the fate of the earth depends on the accuracy of a slashdot summary?!?

  42. Re:Asteroid? Why not meteor? by fuego451 · · Score: 5, Funny

    Asteroid, meteoroid or hemorrhoid; what does it matter? They're all a pain in the ass.

  43. Re:Asteroid? Why not meteor? by sidb · · Score: 4, Informative

    It doesn't matter whether it hits the ground in one piece, splits into fragments, or burns up entirely before impact. The energy release is the same; only the location and form of the released energy will vary. I was assuming that the OP meant 1 kton of energy dissipated as heat into the atmosphere. It's a weird unit of measure to use for anything that isn't a point explosion, though. Still, I wonder how much it takes to noticeably affect anything beyond a temporary light show—the weather, perhaps. Probably more than this meteor has, even with your higher figure, unless it hits the ground.

  44. This sort of impact happens once a month. by SETIGuy · · Score: 5, Informative

    A kiloton scale impact is a once a month thing. The only interesting thing about this collision is that we detected the object in advance. All the other ones have hit without warning. A 20 kiloton impact is a once a year event. It's only when you get to 10 megaton events that you have to worry about any effects on the ground, (apart from people looking at the bolide being temporarily or permanently blinded).

  45. Re:Asteroid? Why not meteor? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

    And in the atmosphere it's called hail.

  46. Size doesn't matter by Macka · · Score: 5, Funny

    ... it's what it does on entry that counts!

  47. Re:Asteroid? Why not meteor? by Mikkeles · · Score: 3, Funny

    And an asteroid breaking in two would be two hemorrhoids?

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