Geoengineering To Cool the Earth Becoming Thinkable

johkir writes "As early as 1965, when Al Gore was a freshman in college, a panel of distinguished environmental scientists warned President Lyndon B. Johnson that CO2 emissions from fossil fuels might cause 'marked changes in climate' that 'could be deleterious.' Yet the scientists did not so much as mention the possibility of reducing emissions. Instead they considered one idea: 'spreading very small reflective particles' over about five million square miles of ocean, so as to bounce about 1 percent more sunlight back to space — 'a wacky geoengineering solution.' In the decades since, geoengineering ideas never died, but they did get pushed to the fringe — they were widely perceived by scientists and environmentalists alike as silly and even immoral attempts to avoid addressing the root of the problem of global warming. Three recent developments have brought them back into the mainstream." We've discussed some pretty strange ideas in the geoengineering line over the last few years.

Comments

Like something out of Robinson's work

[CRCulver]

It's cool to see some of the speculation about the terraforming of other planets now applied to Earth. I fondly recall how one of the strategies used to warm Mars in Kim Stanley Robinson's trilogy beginning with Red Mars was spreading black dust to absorb sunlight.

Re:Like something out of Robinson's work

[spazdor]

There was an excellent TED Lecture on the topic of geoengineering, given by David Keith. It's a little over 15 minutes but well worth the time, and it skips all the sci-fi platitudes.

Re:Like something out of Robinson's work

[arpad1]

That's nice in a science fiction story but in the real world hurricane modification research was curtailed because of the fear that unsuspected interactions would result in more damage not less.

It seems to me that we shouldn't tinker with the entire atmosphere if we don't have a good deal of confidence we can control one of the constituent phenomena.

Re:Like something out of Robinson's work

[MrNaz]

The real problem is the business of the process.

There is too great an incentive for companies to dream up potentially damaging and idiotic ideas in order to secure lucrative government contracts to carry them out. The company then makes a large profit from screwing with the environment in a big way.

It's the same mechanism that results in companies having an incentive to push the country into war; massive mega-contracts that result in huge gains to that company at the severe detriment of everyone else.

Huge dollars going into mega projects like carbon sequestering attract morally bankrupt companies like Bechtel, companies who would strip mine the entire Amazon if they could make it profitable. They put together a reasonable sounding proposal, submit it to the bumbling idiots who call themselves our leaders along with a fat bribe and then go about reaping enormous profit using our tax dollars to fuck up the planet.

There are few things that anger me more than the privatization of social responsibility.

Re:Like something out of Robinson's work

[Tx]

We don't know for sure the effects of anything we do to try and combat climate change. Even just reducing emissions of greenhouse gasses to what they were at some arbitrary time in the past does not guarantee that the climate will just go directly back to how it was, it's a lot more complicated than that.

Taking the attitude you express would therefore lead to simply doing nothing, which seems to be a pretty close-minded view. You do what you can via modelling etc to try and predict the effects of any potential intervention. Then you try it on a limited scale, and try to confirm your models. If it seems good, you scale it up. Sure you can't 100% guarantee that you won't cause a disaster, but doing nothing is even more likely to cause a disaster, so the "do nothing" approach is pretty obviously silly.

Re:Like something out of Robinson's work

[sleigher]

Don't listen to that guy. What he really meant is there is no try. Only do or do not.

Re:Like something out of Robinson's work

[ebuck]

We've already done geo-engineering by putting the greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere in the first place. It requires less creative engineering to stop putting them up there, and we know that greenhouse gasses from (whatever) source raise ambient temperature. Therefore, not putting greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere is a generally plausible solution, even if it means we have to change our lifestyle.

Stuff like sprinkling the ocean with reflective material doesn't have a very well known effect because we haven't tinkered with the planet in that way. I'm just a lowly ex-Biologist, but immediately after reading the description, alarm bells are going off like wild.

These particles will be exposed to one of the world's largest food chains, possibly poisoning one of the greatest stores of bio-mass in existence. Life will probably manage to struggle on, but even a reduction in bio-mass in the ocean has a very profound impact on the land dwelling population of the world.

We already have significant problems with mercury content of many types of edible marine life. They don't eat a lethal dose at any given time, but their bodies accumulate the poison until it presents problems for their predators. Such systems of poison storage causes collapses of the predators first, which then cause blooms of the prey, which then cause mass extinctions of the prey due to starvation. In this respect, animals are like humans, willing to watch the whole species go to hell in a hand bucket as long as they can exploit the environment for everything its got.

Even if they're plastic particles, plastics leech phenols which seem to cause some health problems. Even if they're 100% inert (perhaps ceramic?) small particles are deadly in their own right. Particular atmospheric pollution does it's damage whether you get it from living in a city or other means, some people can't get enough of particular pollution so they take up smoking ;)

I wonder if the researchers have considered how easy it would be to live, work, sleep, and eat in a house where every interior surface was covered with a fine layer of glitter.

What could possibly go wrong?

[Anonymous Coward]

Never a more apt tag in the whole of the internet.

Re:What could possibly go wrong?

[nizo]

Just look at how successful the cane toad was in taking care of the cane beetle problem in Australia. Oh wait...

I'm in favor of a space shield

[Anonymous Coward]

To act like sunglasses... or moving the Earth back from the Sun a little bit.

Paging Dr. Kynes...

[Eli Gottlieb]

Who knows what will happen to important sea-life species if we go spreading reflective dust in the oceans?

This is Earth; we have more than Shai-Hulud to preserve.

Not usually one to agree with the tag...

[IndustrialComplex]

But what could possibly go wrong?

It seems that a lot of our problems are caused by the introduction of small particulates into the air and water. And once we figure out how to reflect 1% of the sunlight and eventually reduce our own greenhouse emissions I have to wonder one thing.

How do you turn it off when we are 'cooler'?

In actuality, I'm wondering a lot of things, but I'm fairly confident that dumping millions of barrels of reflective particles into the ocean is something that will not be high on a popularity poll.

Of course, I'm one of those evil people who isn't as concerned about global warming. Not because I don't believe it exists, but because a lot of the cure appears to be worse than the symptoms. How much will it cost to relocate costal communities over a 50-100 year timeframe, and how much will it cost so that we won't have to do that. Those are some of the answers I want addressed.

I could spend 3 million dollars to make my home hurricane proof, or I could move to Montana.

Re:Not usually one to agree with the tag...

[Anonymous Coward]

There was an old lady who swallowed a fly.
I dunno why she swallowed that fly,
Perhaps she'll die.

There was an old lady who swallowed a spider,
That wriggled and jiggled and wiggled inside her.
She swallowed the spider to catch the fly.
But I dunno why she swallowed that fly -
Perhaps she'll die.

There was an old lady who swallowed a bird;
How absurd, to swallow a bird!
She swallowed the bird to catch the spider
That wriggled and jiggled and wiggled inside her.
She swallowed the spider to catch the fly.
But I dunno why she swallowed that fly -
Perhaps she'll die

There was an old lady who swallowed a cat.
Imagine that, she swallowed a cat.
She swallowed the cat to catch the bird ...
She swallowed the bird to catch the spider
That wriggled and jiggled and wiggled inside her.
She swallowed the spider to catch the fly.
But I dunno why she swallowed that fly
Perhaps she'll die

There was an old lady who swallowed a dog.
What a hog! To swallow a dog!
She swallowed the dog to catch the cat...
She swallowed the cat to catch the bird ...
She swallowed the bird to catch the spider
That wriggled and jiggled and wiggled inside her.
She swallowed the spider to catch the fly.
But I dunno why she swallowed that fly
Perhaps she'll die.

There was an old lady who swallowed a goat.
Just opened her throat and swallowed a goat!
She swallowed the goat to catch the dog ...
She swallowed the dog to catch the cat.
She swallowed the cat to catch the bird ...
She swallowed the bird to catch the spider
That wriggled and jiggled and wiggled inside her.
She swallowed the spider to catch the fly.
But I dunno why she swallowed that fly
Perhaps she'll die.

There was an old lady who swallowed a cow.
I don't know how she swallowed a cow!
She swallowed the cow to catch the goat... She swallowed the goat to catch the dog...
She swallowed the dog to catch the cat...
She swallowed the cat to catch the bird ...
She swallowed the bird to catch the spider
That wriggled and jiggled and wiggled inside her.
She swallowed the spider to catch the fly.
But I dunno why she swallowed that fly
Perhaps she'll die.

There was an old lady who swallowed a horse -
She's dead, of course.

No they didn't

[Any Web Loco]

This is a complete myth. Read this and be enlightened - http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=94

Re:No they didn't

[MyLongNickName]

From the article: "I should clarify that I'm talking about predictions in the scientific press. There were some regrettable things published in the popular press (e.g. Newsweek; though National Geographic did better)."

I remember the popular press reporting that we were in a global cooling spell. The lesson to be learned is that you do not rely on the popular media for scientific reporting. The press did a good job of convincing me and others that we were going into a cooling period that could be catastrophic. It mad me leery of the global warming crowd, but a couple decades of solid evidence has 95% convinced me otherwise.

Re:No they didn't

[night_flyer]

I was in school in the 1980s and that was all they were talking about, so it may have been a "myth", but they sure were pushing it for some reason...

Re:No they didn't

[Gordonjcp]

It mad me leery of the global warming crowd, but a couple decades of solid evidence has 95% convinced me otherwise.

The evidence for global cooling was just as strong. About 25 years ago we really were going to be frozen into a big ball of ice by 2025.

Re:No they didn't

[zappepcs]

From the article you mention:

The state of the science at the time (say, the mid 1970's), based on reading the papers is, in summary: "â¦we do not have a good quantitative understanding of our climate machine and what determines its course. Without the fundamental understanding, it does not seem possible to predict climateâ¦" (which is taken directly from NAS, 1975). In a bit more detail, people were aware of various forcing mechanisms - the ice age cycle; CO2 warming; aerosol cooling - but didn't know which would be dominant in the near future. By the end of the 1970's, though, it had become clear that CO2 warming would probably be dominant; that conclusion has subsequently strengthened.

There is a part that bears repeating: with slight modification:

The state of the science is: "â¦we do not have a good quantitative understanding of our climate machine and what determines its course. Without the fundamental understanding, it does not seem possible to predict climateâ¦".

We just launched space probes to try to figure out why the Sun seems so quiet and cool. This was not predicted, nor is it understood. The many and varied factors that affect our global climate are thought of but not known. I say known in the way that we KNOW why some babies are boys and some are girls. We know that and can do little to affect the outcome of birth. We KNOW about cancer, or think we do, and yet people die every day from it. We KNOW about diet and food based health problems yet people die of starvation every fucking day.

What is my point? It's simple. We do NOT know enough about the problem to clearly and unequivocally state that reducing CO2 will stop global warming or even control it. We do NOT know enough to even begin to know what the problem is caused by. Sure, man's contribution to greenhouse gases obviously has some impact, but we do NOT know enough to say that reduction of man made greenhouse gases would reduce or even affect global warming, never mind saying it would control global climate.

I'm all for energy efficient appliances and so called 'green' buildings and so forth. I'm all for reducing CO2 emissions. I'm all for 'green' coal burning, if there is such a thing in reality. These are all things that put less pollutants into the air. I'm all for doing many of the things that global warming alarmists warn that we should stop doing, or start doing. What I am against is thinking that this is magically going to solve a problem that we have barely any idea it exists never mind how it is caused.

I'm all for doing the things we know are bad for us in the fucking short term, never mind their long term effects. That smog in L.A. - bad idea. Lead in paint and toys and such - bad idea. Ozone emissions - bad idea. Fluoridation of the water - bad idea. Inefficient Internal combustion engines spewing filth into the ecosystem - bad idea. There are literally millions of things that are BAD IDEAS and have immediate consequences to life on this planet that are bad enough to justify the stopping of such things. We do NOT need to cry global warming to have reason to stop them.

Please please please, would someone take the lead and do so with common sense. Lets understand how the Earth's climate machinery works before thinking we can control that machinery. The chances that shifting magnetosphere and solar heating changes have 99.999% of the blame here is as great or greater than the idea that humans have caused this current climate situation. The position of this planet and solar system in relation to the surrounding galaxy has an effect on climate. There are many factors that affect climate or can, that just won't fit inside the 'standard' activist's head. Do these activist go to sleep at night praying that there will be a solar flare tomorrow? Oh god, please help our Sun be normal again?

I'm just asking for common sense. Understand the problem before you begin thinking you can fix it. This is hardly something that governments are good at. Scientists have had to use buzzy sound bites to get any attention for their particular concerns, so the real picture has not been exposed, nor all the players in this game we call the global climate machine of Earth.

Re:No they didn't

[theaveng]

I read the article, but I was also ALIVE at that time. I remember folks like Carl Sagan rallying the troops to stop the cooling of the planet (from suspended pollution). No article can erase the memory of the people watching their televisions during the 70s and early 80s.

Re:No they didn't

[clintp]

Gee, it's too bad an entire field of science just doesn't get "sun cycles and sun weather"! Good thing you showed up to tell them!

Because the motives of researchers are pure and faultless, and their predictive abilities on climate change have been accurate so far, we should trust them blindly?

Nope. Sorry. Scientists want funding, influence, and respect as much as every other human being. It's a lot sexier (and more profitable) to claim the world is going to end than it is to say that every thing is okay, really.

I'm a member of the generation that was sold "Global Cooling" by the same scientists in the 1970's. I remember the papers, the articles, and the dire warnings about impending glacial advance. The calls for research grants and a government agency were incessant.

Let's apply Sagan's Skeptic's Toolkit to anthropogenic global warming in 2008, shall we?

Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of the "facts." The "facts" are sparse, and still coming in. We are applying precise measurements to modern conditions, and using indirect observation to extrapolate (what we hope) are just as precise measurements from centuries ago. Smells a little of baloney, but plausible.

Arguments from authority carry little weight. But "an entire field of science" says so, smells of this.

Prepare more than one hypothesis. Global warming can only be anthropogenic. And if it's only partly mankind's fault, it's impossible to quantify. FAIL. This is 100% laced-with fillers and hog knuckles baloney.

Apply Occam's Razor where two arguments explain the data equally well.Fails here too. Solar activity has been a bit odd lately, and the sun sure in the hell has a lot more control over the climate than mankind ever will. Baloney.

Always ask if the hypothesis is falsifiable, at least in principle.This isn't the first time this kind of climate change has happened, but the first time we can blame SUV's. More baloney.

Skepticism and political inertia need to always serve as flywheels to science going off and doing something half-cocked.

Re:Perhaps?

[IndustrialComplex]

To be fair, we will have to address a myriad of issues before we are able to effect any real change in the US.

One of my biggest gripes is the lack of community planning since the 1950s. Everyone wanted to live in the suburbs, and now, thanks to the housing construction boom, local governments drunk on property tax revenue, and a complete lack of traffic planning we have broken the back of many of our communities.

I've seen so much of the countryside consumed in this glut of home building it sickens me. I'm not even 30 and I have seen some historical areas and homes purchased by development companies and turned into sales offices. 5000 sq ft homes on 1 acre plots are built while nothing is added to the existing communities. Watching people reward this blight by purchasing or renting these homes and commuting 30-50 miles boggles the mind.

It is a culture of the car. Shops are spaced out almost as much as the homes. The expectation is that you will drive to one business, get back in your car and drive to the next.

The design of our communities is so freaking wasteful it really marks the 'green' movement as a cute fad for people that really don't understand the problems that exist. 'greening' your less than 10 year old subdivision or condo is spending more money for less solution. Save the money and work to bring your community back to one where you don't have to get into your car to perform any sort of activity and you will see a much greater return.

(Now where's my coffee, thats too much of a rant for this early in the morning)

Geo-engineering a bad idea

[jgarzik]

As has been noted, geo-engineering requires massive amounts of hubris and luck.

Geo-engineering is the act of fighting pollution... with yet more pollution!

And when you intentionally try to change a planet-wide system, all manner of unintended consequences will occur.

Re:Perhaps?

[IndustrialComplex]

Boo hoo, it's the cry of the urban planner who wants everyone in urban ratholes. No thanks.

That is quite the false dichotomy isn't it? I want to design communities that don't force you into urban ratholes, and you respond with 'boo hoo'? I want to see us develop the urban areas we have, to make them livable to more people so that we don't require everyone to move 50 miles from their jobs just to find a decent place to live.

Trust me when I say this, the last place I want to live is in a city. But the last thing i want to see happen is all of our contryside turned into generic urban fill. The problem is that the planning that existed to date was not part of a long term sustainable strategy. It banked on increasing the home-count and thus increased property tax revenue for governments, and not for the eventual collapse that will occur in 20-30 years when the cost of living in such a manner results in stagnating economies.

If you don't plan for that, then an urban rathole is what you will get.

I grew up in a rust-belt town. When you rely on a single industry to drive your local economy its foolish.

The Great Floating Garbage Patch didn't work?

[toby]

the island is almost entirely comprises human-made trash. It currently weighs approximately 3.5 million tons with a concentration of 3.34 million pieces of garbage per square kilometer, 80 per cent of which is plastic.

Due to the Patch's location in the North Pacific Gyre, its growth is guaranteed to continue as this Africa-sized section of ocean spins in a vortex that effectively traps flotsam.