Software Development Predictions For 2009

snydeq writes "Fatal Exception's Neil McAllister lays out his development predictions for 2009. These include further struggles from Microsoft in retooling its image, a more open source mindset for Java, twilight for Sun, the Web as platform of choice, and a dearth of innovation due to dwindling economic prospects. 'When customers aren't buying, tool vendors don't innovate — so don't expect many groundbreaking new technologies to debut this year,' McAllister writes, adding that smart companies will realize that 'process automation is one of the best ways to reduce costs in any business,' making 2009 the ideal time to 'revisit old software schemes that got shelved back when staffing budgets were flush.'"

Comments

On the contrary

[A beautiful mind]

Historical trend shows that when the economy is in a recession/crisis/bad shape, that's when people turn towards the radically new. Sort of like a forest fire, it opens up opportunities for startups and new things.

Re:On the contrary

[ionix5891]

thats assuming the rotten trees get burned and leave space for fresh younglings

in our case the rotten trees got bailed out

Re:On the contrary

[supersnail]

Sorry but I cant think of a single company/brand/product that had its origins in the Great Depression.

Up till 2002 the software industry was counter-cyclic with the rest of the economy. When times got tough companies spent more on computers and associated software to save costs or gain competetive edge.

But the low hanging fruit is gone and IT departments are just another big budget item that needs cutting. Particularly in the current cluster f***ed economy -- can you think of any software that would get you easier, indeed any, credit from the bank, or, software that would help you sell your latest high tech gizmo to someone who just lost thier job and is having thier mortgage foreclosed?

Spending on sex, gambling and drugs goes up in hard times, but, the first two are a done deal as far a software is concerned and the third is in a market so free that the competition will kill you.

         

Re:On the contrary

[Sobrique]

Not at all - low hanging fruit may be gone, but 'sloppy' implementations of IT systems are widespread and rife. I do IT for an 'outsource support' provider - many of our customers are in a position where revisiting their IT systems and working practices around them will provide massive dividends.

Whether they will or not, is another matter - I suspect it's much more likely that they're going to keep their heads down, and work to 'lowest common denominator' IT services.

Re:On the contrary

[owlnation]

The Great Depression was also the source of real rise of Hollywood. The current recession is hopefully a godsend to those of us who are filmmakers. Movies are a safer investment than property right now.

Re:On the contrary

[Anonymous Coward]

The US unemployment rate is at,what, around 6.7 percent or so, or about one in every fifteen people?

How can any cognitively sound person seriously believe government statistics anymore, especially the unemployment rate? It never ceases to amaze me how when confronted with "Who you gonna believe, the government or your lying eyes?" so many people doubt their own eyes.

In fairness, the unemployment rate is notoriously difficult to calculate. But even a cursory look at how it is calculated can leave no doubt that all the assumptions made fall in favor of coming out with a low number. When you consider all the people who have fallen out of the system entirely and given up looking for (reported) work, the ones who technically have "full-time" jobs but can't get enough hours to support themselves, etc., the real unemployment rate is somewhere between 12 and 15 percent. A lot lower than 1 in 15 people.

I'm sorry to take this out on the parent but it really bugs me when people sitting in their safe little employment foxholes never lift their heads to look around and consequently think that everyone else must be ok too. I work in a blue collar city in a prosperous northeastern state. I see good people every day who are only a few rungs above the walking dead and the ladder is getting more crowded every day. These bullshit exercises in trying to explain how everything really isn't that bad just piss me off. Especially since they always come from someone who hasn't missed a meal in 20 years.

2009

[mrthoughtful]

Hm. How about this:
(1) The majorty of humanity will carry on buying OEM MS operating systems
(2) Apple will produce something sleek, shiny, and expensive
(3) Linux users will think that 2009 will be when Linux will move (at last) into the mainstream userbase. They will be wrong.
(4) The majority of humanity will carry on using Internet Explorer, which will continue to annoy every web developer who doesn't have a MS qualification.
(5) Sun will trudge on.
(6) Cloud computing will still be used by academics and hackers.
(7) Java will continue to have it's mixture of fans and foes. But not much else.
(8) Same goes for BEA, etc.
(9) Innovation will happen in ways that you least expect.
(10) Oh - that year went by so fast.
(11) But now I am out of a job because the banks took my money and made a profit, then made a loss and took my money again.

Re:2009

[Eivind]

Probably most of these will be true, it's hardly surprising that mostly the world continues as it has.

The IE-thing though, I see sligthly differently. It's true that most people use IE. But it is also true that IE has seen a steady decline the last 2 years. Like you, I think the trends will continue much as they are, but that still means a continous downwards trend.

For the websites we run at work (I work for a web-development company that carries the websites of around 1500 norwegian companies, including a dozen of the larger ones) 2 years ago we saw 80% IE on average (more on grandma-type websites, less on technical ones), one year ago it was at about 73%, and now in december it was at 65%.

I don't care much about IE, but I do care about healthy competition. My ideal world would have no single browser above 50%. That's the best guarantee that people will not develop exclusively for ONE browser.

Innovation for market creation

[stiller]

'When customers aren't buying, tool vendors don't innovate"

Innovation does not only service existing markets, it creates new ones, too. Think about Nintendo (Wii) and Apple (iPhone) for instance, who consistently create new markets that weren't there before. In a stagnating market, innovation is more important than ever.

Re:Prediction

[freddy_dreddy]

By controlling the past, one means controlling education in history - omitting certain historic events and highlighting others.