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Report Claims 95% of Music Downloads Are Illegal

Un pobre guey writes "The International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI) press release claims that 95% of music file downloads in 2008, an estimated 40 billion files, were illegal. Oddly enough, digital music sales are up: 'The digital music business internationally saw a sixth year of expansion in 2008, growing by an estimated 25 per cent to US$3.7 billion in trade value. Digital platforms now account for around 20 per cent of recorded music sales, up from 15 per cent in 2007. Recorded music is at the forefront of the online and mobile revolution, generating more revenue in percentage terms through digital platforms than the newspaper (4%), magazine (1%) and film industries (4%) combined... Despite these developments, the music sector is still overshadowed by the huge amount of unlicensed music distributed online. Collating separate studies in 16 countries over a three-year period, IFPI estimates over 40 billion files were illegally file-shared in 2008, giving a piracy rate of around 95 per cent.'"

38 of 331 comments (clear)

  1. Inflation... by alain94040 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    From the report:

    Music companiesâ(TM) digital revenues internationally grew by an estimated 25 per cent in 2008

    I can think of a long list of other industries that would love to have that kind of growth given the current economy.

    Using an inflammatory and inflated claim that "95% of all downloads are pirated" is just showing how greedy the music industry is. But we all knew that already.

    --
    FairSoftware.net -- where geeks are their own boss

    1. Re:Inflation... by a+whoabot · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The sole fact that their digital revenues have gone up does not tell you much about the growth of the industry.

    2. Re:Inflation... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      so did the artists themselves see at 25% increase as well, or are they being screwed on all sides now?

    3. Re:Inflation... by calmofthestorm · · Score: 3, Funny

      Funny, the RIAA reported the figure at over 9000%. Clearly we must be fair and balanced, and average both sides to reach a compromise.

      (>9000% + 95%) / 2 is >4547.5%

      --
      93rd rule of Slashdot: No matter how obvious my sarcasm is, my comment will be taken seriously by someone.
    4. Re:Inflation... by pestilence669 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Using an inflammatory and inflated claim that "95% of all downloads are pirated" is just showing how greedy the music industry is. But we all knew that already.

      It may not be inflated. Remember what the music industry considers piracy: Copying your library to an MP3 player, burning a CD for your car, putting your library on a laptop, etc. The industry doesn't like the fair use provisions in copyright law, so they frequently pretend like they don't exist.

      It's not like the old days, where you buy an 8-track tape for the car and LP for the house... eventually replacing them with cassette tape and compact disc... sometimes more than once. Who's ever lost or broken an album?

      Now that people can make their own copies and backups, there's a lot less opportunity to sell the exact same product repeatedly with ever increasing costs. Digital downloads tend to result in only one sale. You can't "break" an MP3 like a scratched CD. Bummer. Time to bring back Vinyl.

    5. Re:Inflation... by seanadams.com · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Their digital revenue may be up, but their overall sales are way down once again, because almost nobody buys CDs anymore, and that was their main gravy train.

      Of course, who wants CDs when they could have something digital instead?

    6. Re:Inflation... by moderatorrater · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The fact that the digital downloads grew from 25% and went from 20% of all sales to 25% of all sales says that overall sales remained the same (ie the digital downloads were direct cannibalization of physical purchases). The numbers themselves give that for a fact.

      Couple that with the economy right now and you could say that, since the rest of the economy has gone to shit, avoiding a decline was as good as they could have hoped for. In addition, you could say that since digital downloads make a la carte purchasing possible where physical sales require you to buy a whole cd, the popular songs are getting even more popular with digital downloads. I think that 4x the number of people downloading certain songs would be good overall for the music industry since concert sales are a big draw and everything else (generally) would remain even.

      That doesn't take into account the cost to produce a cd or the comparitive profit margins between the two. I don't know what those comparisons are and I'm not even going to guess at them since the rest of my post is based on things that are true and relatively simple extrapolations from that point, but I will say that I personally believe that the shift from physical to digital media isn't hurting their business, although it is definitely changing it. Let's call it a horizontal shift with opportunities to capitalize on the change.

    7. Re:Inflation... by gbarules2999 · · Score: 4, Informative

      "You can't "break" an MP3 like a scratched CD." Unless you're running an unpatched Windows 7 beta. http://www.neowin.net/news/main/09/01/05/warning-windows-7-beta-could-corrupt-your-mp3s

    8. Re:Inflation... by againjj · · Score: 4, Informative

      Remember that the digital revenue increase is matched with a non-digital revenue decrease. That is, increased downloads come in part from people who used to buy CDs. So, total revenues are not up 25%.

    9. Re:Inflation... by nofx_3 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      How about these maths:
       
      Assume that instead the 40 billion downloads were legal downloads, and not even count the other 5%. Lets also assume that a download is worth 99 cents. Of that, the RI takes a huge chunk, I couldn't find exact numbers but lets say for the sake of argument the RI gets 50 cents (a low estimate in my opinion as the artist gets less than 10 cents in royalties, and apple claims most of the 99 cents goes to the recording industry). So at 50 cents per track this would mean additional revenues for the record industry of 2 TRILLION cents, or about 20 billion dollars. There is no way they were making their current cd sales + legal downloads + extra 20 billion prior to digital downloading.
       
      So what does this tell us? Most downloads are not lost sales. The fact is that people consume many times more music because of music downloads, than if they had to pay.
       
      I'll use myself as an example, prior to MP3's I bought about 12 albums a year or 1 per month. I'd say today I still buy about 12 albums per year, but I also download 3-4 additional albums per month that I never would have bought (i.e. worth a listen or two but not worth my money). Basically I am adding to the download statistics, but the statistics are misleading because the RI has lost no sales in my case. I think the numbers are extremely inflated because of this.

      --
      Visualize Whirled Peas
    10. Re:Inflation... by commodore64_love · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Actually I've seen a report over at highdefforum.com which said, even though digital media has increased, sales of CDs have decreased, thereby giving the record companies a net loss in revenue ($1 songs aren't as profitable as $12 CDs).

      Oh well.

      Cry me a river. What we're basically seeing is a return to the 1950s and 1960s when singles routinely outsold albums. The record companies survived that time period just fine, and they can survive its rebirth.

      --
      "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - historian Evelyn Beatrice Hall
    11. Re:Inflation... by mikechant · · Score: 4, Informative

      Hey, what do you use to rip 'em?
      What format do you output to?

      I'm actually in the middle of ripping my entire 300+ CD collection which starts with CDs from about 20 years ago. And yes, some of them do 'rust', but this doesn't necessarily mean you can't get a good rip from them. The central factor is (command line tool) cdparanoia. I use two gui interfaces which use cdparanoia. Mostly, I use rubyripper. This uses cdparanoia with no error correction etc. - but it rips in chuncks two or more times and compares the results, and rerips (only the) bad chunks repeatedly. For 'good quality' CDs it rips much faster than any other reliable method. For about 1 cd in 50 with bad scratches or corrosion I use Grip, which by default uses cdparanoia in 'maximum paranoia mode'. This can be *a lot* slower than using rubyripper but it will rip any but the most damaged discs.

      Woo! While typing this comment I've discovered my missing (genuine shop bought) copy of Marillion's "Script for a Jester's Tear" in the wrong CD case.

      Anyhow, I've ripped about 200/300 now with complete sucess using the above.

      You also asked what format to rip to. With current disc space prices, the *only* answer is lossless. FLAC is probably best, you can easily convert this to wav or any other format and it doesn't take much more space than good quality compressed. If you've got plenty of disc space, like I have, you might as well use uncompressed wav format - makes life simpler. My whole music collection uncompressed will fit in about 200Gb

  2. Sales are up so who cares by Just+Some+Guy · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Advice to the RIAA: forget the piracy exists. You simply are not going to ever get money from those people - get over it. On the other hand, you're making more money than every from downloads and you should work to keep growing those figures. That's the only thing you can do, frankly. Fighting piracy is like punching marshmallows.

    --
    Dewey, what part of this looks like authorities should be involved?
    1. Re:Sales are up so who cares by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Well I wouldn't say that they would never be able to market to some of the subset (ITMS?), namely the casual pirates. I agree, however, there is a core group of people that will never pay for the content and will engage in distribution of copyrighted material. You can woo those who occasionally use Limewire, etc by not treating people like criminals like they have done in the past. A lot of the time (this is true of movies/shows too) it is much easier for someone to fire up some p2p software and download some music, than it is to go and access some DRM laden file of purposely degraded quality. Take TV shows for example, I usually watch a show I've missed online by going to Hulu. I don't mind the ads all that much and I don't really care about owning a TV show which has low replay value. However, a show or other media that isn't easily accessible or purposely made difficult to use because of the industry's fear of the customer, I am going to go to a torrent site and just get the material. I'll tell you though, these dedicated distributors really know how to encode a quality file and I usually find a download is of much higher quality than the crap compressed over my Cable. When the pirates can distribute your media at a higher quality and ease of use, it turns into a sad state of things for the copyright holders.

    2. Re:Sales are up so who cares by TFer_Atvar · · Score: 3, Funny

      Fighting piracy is like punching marshmallows.

      Man, making s'mores at your house must get interesting!

    3. Re:Sales are up so who cares by Just+Some+Guy · · Score: 3, Funny

      Man, making s'mores at your house must get interesting!

      I hate those uppity blobs and take every opportunity to torture them into submission.

      --
      Dewey, what part of this looks like authorities should be involved?
    4. Re:Sales are up so who cares by Just+Some+Guy · · Score: 4, Funny

      You talkin' marshmallows or record company executives?

      Yep.

      --
      Dewey, what part of this looks like authorities should be involved?
  3. I call bullsh*t! by girlintraining · · Score: 4, Insightful

    How can they be sure 95% of them are illegal? Isn't this the same group that's for years been trying to track down who is downloading what and suing them? I mean, studies like this go to the honesty of the other person. And if people will lie about something as trivial as how many sexual partners they've had, what are the odds of people telling the truth here? Besides, if 95% of music downloads were illegal, that's a pretty strong argument that downloading music should be legalized, especially considering how pervasive it is and how ineffective enforcement has been to date.

    There are three kinds of lies...

    --
    #fuckbeta #iamslashdot #dicemustdie
    1. Re:I call bullsh*t! by CrackedButter · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The thing is, I can download illegal music and then purchase legal music, does this mean they counted the illegal music as a lost sale even though I also bought legitimate music? How can anybody know what I'm doing. As you said there are lies...

    2. Re:I call bullsh*t! by slazzy · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I wonder if they take into account people downloading music for cds/albums/tapes which they own but are damaged or lost. I have a few friends who have to regularly re-download their music collection each time they get a new computer as they have no idea how to transfer files from one computer to another etc... these same people only seem to download the same 80's music that they already have cassette tapes for, but it's easier to download rather than digitize the music.

      --
      Website Just Down For Me? Find out
    3. Re:I call bullsh*t! by mrsteveman1 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      How can they be sure 95% of them are illegal?

      This is what is going on here. The media companies decide, beforehand, how much money they should be making in a given period of time, based on voodoo bullshit as far as i can tell, then if they don't make that much money they bitch about the pirates and blame losses on them.

      So while their digital revenue and legal downloads have probably gone up, the RIAA and the companies they represent think it should be going up MORE, a lot more apparently. The problem is they are fucking wrong, and have no credibility to say anything in public anymore.

    4. Re:I call bullsh*t! by gotzero · · Score: 3, Insightful

      This will turn out to be that 95% of music files downloaded were not downloaded legally from RIAA artists. There is a huge world world out there they are not looking at, both geographically and musically. There are massive amounts of unpaid but legal downloads from artists that allow D/Ls, international artists, and D/L services for pay or not that do not sell songs from RIAA artists, etc.

    5. Re:I call bullsh*t! by timmarhy · · Score: 4, Insightful
      they can't be sure, i suspect they have arrived at his figure by checking for pirated content on torrent sites. so really they should be saying "95% of music on torrents is pirated". Which i would have no issue with - i think they would be right.

      the problem is they then leap straight to this dream land where every download is a sale they missed out on. most of their shit isn't worth a download when it's free, let alone 15$.

      --
      If you mod me down, I will become more powerful than you can imagine....
  4. Well then there is only one solution... by 3seas · · Score: 5, Funny

    ... Tell the Artist to stop making illegal music.

  5. One thing this shows us... by riceboy50 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    If you provide customer-friendly channels for obtaining music legally online, your sales will increase. Quit yer bellyachin' already.

    --
    ~ I am logged on, therefore I am.
    1. Re:One thing this shows us... by riceboy50 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You are overlooking one crucial point. To the average user, buying a song from iTunes is easier than finding a reliable p2p service, installing the software (and possibly configuring it properly), and searching for the songs they want which may have several versions and different availability. Simply put, it's possible to make the legal channels much easier and friendly to use.

      --
      ~ I am logged on, therefore I am.
  6. In other news... by PixelThis · · Score: 4, Funny

    95% of statistics are made up on the spot.

  7. I wonder what they consider a piracy download? by tmosley · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Are they including songs being played on MySpace pages? Unauthorized used on YouTube, etc?

    Sounds pretty stupid to me.

  8. amazon number 1 - NiN by spandex_panda · · Score: 4, Interesting
    I read that NiNs' freely available album was the highest selling digital music seller on Amazon I just checked tpb and the fellow who created the torrent says the whole album is CC share alike!

    So this means that the album IS available for free to legally download via torrent AND it was the highest sale on Amazon. Remarkable eh!

    --
    like phosphorescent desert buttons singing one familiar song
  9. In other news by kpainter · · Score: 5, Funny

    5% of all music downloads are overpriced.

  10. Okay, now by willoughby · · Score: 5, Insightful

    ...let's go through that list of "illegal" downloads & find what percentage are not available for "legal" purchase/download.

    In other words, how much of that music is not available from any "legal" source?

  11. 100% by Nonillion · · Score: 5, Funny

    Sheesh, why not say it's 100%, or even 99.999% At least come up with some believable percentage for crying out loud..

    --
    "I bow to no man" - Riddick
  12. 8 years ago... by K_E_Morr · · Score: 5, Insightful

    100% of music downloads were illegal. Sounds like the RIAA is making progress

  13. Pretty much by Sycraft-fu · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Also if it really is that big and your sales are going up, well then what's the worry? Maybe it actually leads to MORE sales.

    The problem is they project this image, and indeed have this mentality, that copyright infringement is theft. No it isn't. The reason a retailer hates theft is because not only does it decrease sales, but it takes away an item they had for sale. That hurts the bottom line. If someone steals a bag of chips, I can't sell those chips to anyone else. So if I'm a retailer, I want to do everything I can to stop that (and even then retailers accept that some shrinkage is going to happen regardless).

    However if someone came in to my store, made a perfect copy of a bag of chips and then started handing out those copies for free. Well I'd be less miffed. Maybe I'm losing some sales now, but it isn't as though anything has been taken from me. Now suppose that when someone does that my sales don't go down, they in fact go up. People decide they want to come in and buy more chips, or other things I offer. Despite the free stuff being given away, I make more money. Well hell in this case I'd be happy. Let them hand out free stuff all day long if it makes me more money.

    They just have this unrealistic greedy idea that if there was a magical system that could stop all copyright infringement, they'd get 20x the sales and thus 20x the profits. Ummm no. At best, you'd probably stay the same (the only empirical study of this ever done by Harvard and UNC found copying has no statistically significant effect on sales) at worst your sales would go down. They need to stop living in a fantasy world and be ahppy with what they've got.

  14. Best selling single by Xelios · · Score: 5, Funny

    "The top-selling digital single of 2008 was Lil Wayne's Lollipop with sales of 9.1 million units"

    I think my hope for the human race just died a little.

    --
    Murphey's fighting Occam, and we're in the stands.
    1. Re:Best selling single by tick-tock-atona · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Actually, that just shows that no-one who listens to Lil Wayne was smart enough to go to TPB and download it for free.

  15. Re:WTF? by Lord+Flipper · · Score: 3, Interesting

    If you're sell a million dollars of $12 CDs vs. the same amount of $1 downloads, how could you possibly make more profit on the CDs?

    That is correct, they couldn't possibly make as much off the physical CDs. I hate being boring "on purpose" but, manufacturing cost, shipment, advertising, returns policies, middleman (jobber) profit margins and last retail outlet margins cut into the list price something fierce.

    Sure they have some economies of scale, but not even remotely enough to negate the cost of incidentals.

    One thing though, about CDs, is that they are a lot easier for Artist management to enumerate, for purposes of figuring the artist share. And that "share" is usually subtracted from advances, given at the time of signing "For hire" contracts, and is the artist's only non-touring, non-merchandising income.

    Contracts almost always have a per unit rate (minus a percentage for breakage/returns) that is considered the artist share. There are exceptions, of course, and some artists have the wherewithal to initiate touring and merchandising business models that allow them to recoup a lot of the actual cash that was sacrificed when they signed away their publishing rights. But that is rare when we look at the industry and its "workers" as a whole.

    Things are stacked against the workers, in many of the same ways that are common all across the board in our work for hire system. But the cool thing is that, although the labels can make more money with less accountability, by using all-digital means of production, that same tech is available to musicians, and, if utilized, will put growing numbers of them in control of the "means of production."

    If that scenario were to gain the force of momentum and become the rule, rather than the "exception," we'd have a small revolution on our hands, at least in terms of workers' rights and fairness in that industry.

    It would be a rather classic case of a monopoly based on shared objectives, rather than negotiation or collective agreements, etc., with the "workers" on the dealing, rather than the receiving, end of the game.

  16. Re:WTF? by Fallen+Seraph · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I love how you try SO hard to take his comment apart, but apparently failed at reading it. You see, there's this thing called context, where you actually have to read the words AROUND a phrase or sentence to fully understand the meaning.

    The poster did not say that marketing is always constant at all times under all circumstances. The poster said that, comparing marketing for a song that is distributed digitally, or one that's distributed physically, the difference, if there even is one, is negligible. If an artist is popular with a certain demographic, you're most likely going to be marketing to that group in the same way, regardless of how it's distributed. The difference between having a brick and mortar store erect a cardboard stand to advertise a cd isn't all that different from the price to have a digital music store show an ad for the album on their homepage. So yes, the net impact of marketing is almost nothing in this comparison, as the marketing strategy would be unlikely to change one way or the other.

    Please learn to actually read comments you're replying to before flaming them.