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Antarctic Ice Bridge Finally Breaks Off

GreennMann writes "An ice bridge linking a shelf of ice the size of Jamaica to two islands in Antarctica has snapped. Scientists say the collapse could mean the Wilkins Ice Shelf is on the brink of breaking away, and provides further evidence of rapid change in the region. Sited on the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula, the Wilkins shelf has been retreating since the 1990s. Researchers regarded the ice bridge as an important barrier, holding the remnant shelf structure in place. Its removal will allow ice to move more freely between Charcot and Latady islands, into the open ocean."

88 of 505 comments (clear)

  1. Well, by palegray.net · · Score: 5, Funny

    that's certainly one way to break the ice in a tense situation like this.

    1. Re:Well, by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      gee an ice shelf the size of jamaica.... that must be something like 20,000,000 fridges?

    2. Re:Well, by Forge · · Score: 4, Funny

      How much is that in Football fields?

      Seriously, We don't play American Football in Jamaica so I'm a little Hazy as to what 4,244 sq mi (10,991 sq km) translates to in more standard SlashDot measurements.

      --
      --= Isn't it surprising how badly I spell ?
    3. Re:Well, by maxume · · Score: 4, Informative

      Including the endzones, 2,054,096 football fields. Excluding the endzones, 2,464,915.5 football fields.

      --
      Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
    4. Re:Well, by GeneralEmergency · · Score: 3, Funny

      Seriously, We don't play American Football in Jamaica so I'm a little Hazy as to what 4,244 sq mi (10,991 sq km) translates to in more standard SlashDot measurements.

      A more "standard" SlashDot measurement???

      What is the area of a typical parental basement?

      --
      "A microprocessor... is a terrible thing to waste." --
      GeneralEmergency
  2. Blame me by DaHat · · Score: 5, Funny

    Given my SUV driving has yet to save me in a crash (I've not had one since buying it)... I'm glad to see it has contributed to something productive at least.

    1. Re:Blame me by Thanshin · · Score: 5, Funny

      Given my SUV driving has yet to save me in a crash (I've not had one since buying it)...

      Don't feel bad; maybe you've crashed multiple times against bikes and pedestrians and simply didn't notice.

    2. Re:Blame me by AlamedaStone · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Good for them!

      I do the same thing here in Boston. Plenty of people here resent the truly unpatriotic - SUVs with magnetic Support the Troops ribbons, during wartime, in an economic and energy crisis.

      If you don't have the decency to be ashamed, there are people that will risk their lives to force you to pay an asshole tax, either in brake pads, or insurance premiums, or 100 other ways you don't yet perceive.

      --
      "All these years believing you're the signified monkey, only to find out you're just a big hunk of nobody cares."
  3. Re:Not that it matters ... by palegray.net · · Score: 5, Funny

    Now, I'm gunna drive my SUV 65 miles to work tomorrow and feel ok about it.

    You may feel okay about it, but I feel bad for your gas card :).

  4. This isn't the tip of the iceberg... by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 5, Funny

    Once the ice bridge falls away, scientists will find one pissed off ice troll.

    1. Re:This isn't the tip of the iceberg... by FooAtWFU · · Score: 3, Funny

      Maybe that ice troll's not happy because he's in the middle of a burning desert somewhere. Look at all the sand.

      --
      The World Wide Web is dying. Soon, we shall have only the Internet.
  5. Re:Not that it matters ... by linhares · · Score: 3, Informative

    Oh, and a few inches (or feet) of ocean won't bother me. I have no beach property, nor do I intend to. Last I checked, I'm about 950 feet above sea level..

    From the FA: "While the break-up will have no direct impact on sea level because the ice is floating"....

  6. Re:As I've Said Before by palegray.net · · Score: 3, Funny

    You'd need to go back to a time when you can't blame humans.

    I still blame Canada. They obviously failed to hold on to the ice caps when they had the chance.

  7. Re:As I've Said Before by linhares · · Score: 5, Funny

    If you really, really wanted to save the polar ice caps, you'd create a time machine and travel back..say, 19,000 years ago. Back when the polar ice cap extended down into what is modern day Illinois. Which predates SUVs and industrialization by around...19,000 years or so.

    You could also increase the number of pirates.

  8. Re:the main concern... by compro01 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    You presume that the ice will not float northwards into the shipping lanes. All that ice can travel a long ways before melting.

    --
    upon the advice of my lawyer, i have no sig at this time
  9. Re:the main concern... by compro01 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Yes, but that still requires you to go around them, boosting costs as they need to burn more fuel.

    --
    upon the advice of my lawyer, i have no sig at this time
  10. Re:the main concern... by palegray.net · · Score: 2, Informative

    Slowing your rate of approach works just as well as speeding up to overtake or bypass an object. Speaking from naval experience here...

  11. Whew, no problem then by ryanov · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Thank god we have the average mook on Slashdot or I might have thought this were cause for concern. I guess all of the scientists who have agreed that there are man-made effects on climate are completely incorrect, but this website is the last bastion of sanity?

    1. Re:Whew, no problem then by TapeCutter · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The intellectual coward has it the wrong way around. The "It's natural" red-herring is stage two of the standard psudeo-skeptical denial that comes when they can no longer deny the globe is warming to a particular audience. The next stages include, "it's good for us", "economic armageden" and "god wouldn't allow it to happen".

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    2. Re:Whew, no problem then by biscuitlover · · Score: 4, Insightful

      All those scientists that disagree? Sure, there's some disagreement, but we're talking about a very small percentage of scientists here.

      The fact that a lot of people are happy to selectively discount a clear majority of scientific opinion worldwide because it doesn't fit in with their world view or political standpoint never ceases to amaze me.

    3. Re:Whew, no problem then by Mark+Hood · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Someone once brought this home to me quite nicely - he said if 9 out of 10 doctors said your child had appendicitis, and only 1 said it was trapped gas, would you go home and 'wait and see'?
      Even if you were nervous about the risks of an operation, the risks of ignoring it are much worse - if it turns out to be appendicitis.

      Sure, it might be nothing, just like global warming might not be our fault, but would you take the chance?

      Mark

      --
      Liked this comment? Why not buy me something nice
    4. Re:Whew, no problem then by khayman80 · · Score: 5, Informative

      Most scientists agree that humans have contributed a small change to the climate, but all agree that the majority of the change is due to natural cycles (solar, long term atmospheric fluctuations etc). The only people claiming that humans are the sole or majority cause of climate warming/change are involved in politics, vote gathering, and selling 'technology' concepts to 'save the planet' in order to bilk the public out of money.

      I am a climate scientist. I've never been in politics and I've never sold anything (professional student here). I also think you're completely wrong. My experiences at the 2008 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union are that most (9/10) of the scientists I met agree with the IPCC report on abrupt climate change.

      But you've made an even more fundamental mistake. Science isn't democratic-- it's about evidence. Open up the IPCC reports yourself and focus on what's really important, instead of trying to count how many people are on each side.

      For example, Vostok ice core data confirms that for nearly half a million years, the climate has changed cyclically. But in all that time, the maximum CO2 concentration never went above 300 ppm. (It's hit higher levels millions of years ago, but that was a slow and gradual change. Plus the Earth was essentially a different planet back then, with a different solar luminosity and biosphere so comparisons across that much time are tricky.)

      You're right to say that natural variations are evident in the data, but the most prominent cycles over geological time are governed by (among other effects) Milankovitch cycles which are caused by periodic variations in the earth's orbit.

      But, CO2 concentrations are at 380 ppm today. That's a level it hasn't hit in the last half million years. If we're seeing natural variability alone, it's quite a coincidence that it occurs right when we started excavating fossil fuels to fuel a billion cars.

      Plus, the Vostok data is a little difficult to analyze in this manner, but it seems like at Vostok the CO2 always increased 600 years AFTER the temperature started to increase. At least, that's the way it used to work. Right now, the CO2 concentration is at an unprecedented level but the temperature is barely above normal. Again, that suggests that we're not facing natural climate change, we're dealing with anthropogenic abrupt climate change.

    5. Re:Whew, no problem then by alexibu · · Score: 5, Informative

      The Antarctic as a whole is not cooling, but warming with the rest of the world, some data from some places showed it was cooling and of course this was expounded by denialists as proof that warming wasn't global.

      see : http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/01/state-of-antarctica-red-or-blue

      The Antarctic's ice is melting much less than the arctic because the antarctic gets a lot of it's coldness from it's altitude (mountains etc), whereas the arctic is just floating ice, and is also adjacent to more land and less water - water stabilises temperature - so this makes the arctic more sensitive to temperature changes. But the edge bits are melting.

      I think the ice shelves breaking is more likely to be caused by sea level rise though. Where the sea level cracks the ice off from the land. Which shows the non linear nature of ice melting. We don't just get ice melting linearly with temperature increases, we can get whole chunks breaking off and floating away

    6. Re:Whew, no problem then by TapeCutter · · Score: 3, Informative

      You say you did research 3 years ago. Was it published or did the peer-review point out you missed the IPCC temprature reconstructions that have been generally accepted for about a decade now?

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    7. Re:Whew, no problem then by khayman80 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Yes, I've seen those bizarre claims as well. I don't think any physicist seriously doubts the warming properties of CO2. The spectrum of the sun, absorption lines of CO2 and their relevant thermodynamic relationships are simply too well established. They're freshman-level homework problems, not cutting edge research areas.

      I brought that up because I'm concerned about the fact that current warming is highly atypical in that regard. What happens when the natural positive feedback of CO2 adds to what we've already dumped into the atmosphere?

    8. Re:Whew, no problem then by TapeCutter · · Score: 2, Interesting

      "I don't think any physicist seriously doubts the warming properties of CO2."

      A rare species indeed, but they do exist.

      "What happens when the natural positive feedback of CO2 adds to what we've already dumped into the atmosphere?"

      I assume due to the rate of the current warming the feedback rate will also be more rapid and that quite a bit of the feedback CO2 will initially be released as methane.

      Just out of curiosity, would you say that the IPCC reports are conservative in their pronouncements due to the inherent difficulty of getting that many experts to agree on the claims they publish in their reports?

      BTW: IANAClimatologist and you are the first I have seen here since I started debating AGW on slashdot almost a decade ago. I hope you can find the time to post more often in these stories.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    9. Re:Whew, no problem then by Hognoxious · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Your analogy fails because we KNOW that there are natural changes in temperatures.

      We also KNOW that abdominal pain can be caused by trapped gas or appendicitis. Sorry, it's you that fails.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    10. Re:Whew, no problem then by intheshelter · · Score: 3, Insightful
      "denialists"

      - Oh jeez, if you want to be taken seriously then stop using cheeseball terms that I'd expect from a Scientologist. Giving people who disagree with you some derogatory label lowers your credibility and reeks of cult behavior.

      "I think the ice shelves breaking is more likely to be caused by sea level rise though."

      - Data please? I'm sorry to be such a stickler on this, but since the pro-AGW crowd always expounds on the merits of science and data then I would expect they would provide some when a claim like this is made.

    11. Re:Whew, no problem then by Stormcrow309 · · Score: 2

      Ok, I have to adapt an internet mime for this: Peer reviewed or it didn't happen. Even then it would have to pass the critical analysis test. You present no metrics, sample pool data, or descriptive statistics and yet expect your personnal experience to be taken at face value. You make to many assumptions. Bad scientist. No grant money for you.

      It is also hard to take a 'climate scientist' seriously when you qoute yourself as studing computational and theoretical physics, which is outside climatology. A good scientist knows when not to present themselves as an expert in a field they are not.

      --

      In God we trust, all others require data.

    12. Re:Whew, no problem then by m4cph1sto · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I'm a scientist too, and I judge theories based on merit, not popular opinion.

      As a rule, scientific theories are not accepted by the scientific community until they have done two things: (1) explained known observations in a more simple or fundamental way than alternative theories, and (2) made a prediction about something that is currently unknown and that other theories don't predict, which is then confirmed by observation.

      Global Warming theory has met neither of those requirements. The main statement of Global Warming is something like this: "small changes in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere cause large changes in global temperature". Despite this theory, there is absolutely no evidence that a change in CO2 has ever caused the temperature to change, over the entire billions-years history of the planet. So GW theory doesn't explain past observations.

      It doesn't explain current observations either: CO2 concentration has steadily increased over the past 100 years, while temperatures have gone up, then down, then up again, then down again (as they are currently). There is no dramatic warming trend as predicted by GW theory.

      Finally, GW has not made any unique predictions that have later been confirmed as true. It predicted more and bigger hurricanes; that hasn't happened. It predicted significant temperature increases; that hasn't happened. In fact, the theory seems totally based on computer models that have failed to make a single correct prediction about the climate ever since I first started following the issue, in 1998.

      To summarize, GW theory does not meet the standards of scientific acceptance, not by a long shot.

    13. Re:Whew, no problem then by Red+Flayer · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I'm a scientist too, and I judge theories based on merit, not popular opinion.

      This is contradicted by:

      It doesn't explain current observations either: CO2 concentration has steadily increased over the past 100 years, while temperatures have gone up, then down, then up again, then down again (as they are currently). There is no dramatic warming trend as predicted by GW theory.

      Look at the data again. There is most assuredly a dramatic warming trend, despite the slight decrease in global mean temperature over the past few years. Run a regression on the data, it's quite clear.

      Furthermore, once periodic solar activity is factored in as an ameliorating effect due to lower output over the past few years, it becomes quite clear that the warming trend continues.

      If you're such a logic scientist, how could you have missed the bare facts of the data of the past 100 years? And how could you have dismissed the impact of solar activity on temperature?

      Seems to me like you don't WANT to believe in GCC, and so you don't bother reading all the evidence and theory.

      --
      "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
    14. Re:Whew, no problem then by TapeCutter · · Score: 4, Informative

      Total ignorance is rare but you seem to have pulled it off with that 'insightfull' post.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    15. Re:Whew, no problem then by NeutronCowboy · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Since so many people here think that they're Nobel Prize worthy, I'm sure it won't be hard for those who want to brush me off for not linking to a source to find exactly what I'm talking about.

      No. I brush you off because I've got links to Nobel Prize winners and the results of studies of other world-renowned scientists available. You, on the other hand, are doing some handwaving about the little ice age, which is only tangentially related to the current issue of Global Warming. You seem to take yourself far more seriously than you even accuse the rest of Slashdot to be.

      --
      Those who can, do. Those who can't, sue.
    16. Re:Whew, no problem then by QuantumPion · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Someone once brought this home to me quite nicely - he said if 9 out of 10 doctors said your child had appendicitis, and only 1 said it was trapped gas, would you go home and 'wait and see'?
      Even if you were nervous about the risks of an operation, the risks of ignoring it are much worse - if it turns out to be appendicitis.

      A more accurate analogy would be:

      a) quit your job to live in a clinic indefinitely with a poor quality of life, spending $100,000 on experimental treatments before it bursts in the hope of delaying the problem that will inevitably come anyway, or
      b) keep your job and save up money, wait until the appendix bursts, and spend $10,000 to have the operation to fix the problem, and get on with your life.

      I'm on the fence as to whether AGW is real or not. Even if it is, the climate scientists say it is inevitable over the next century. So why spend trillions of dollars and criple the world's economy when the problem can't be reversed anyway. Better to strive for thriving economies around the world that have that have enough prosperity and wealth to deal with the consequences, and in 100 years or so internal combustion engines and coal power will be obsolete anyway.

    17. Re:Whew, no problem then by hey! · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I'm not a scientist myself, but my wife is an Earth scientist. We've been following the climate change story now for twenty five years or more in Eos and other journals.

      As an interested outsider, I think one of the reasons that scientists took so long to get off the dime when it came to sounding the alarm was that most of them were waiting for the other shoe to drop. There has not been another scientific story like climate change in generations. Not since evolution.

      One of the things my wife often said over the years was, "the evidence is too good." And I'm sure she's not the only one. It goes against scientific training to get behind a theory until it's been given a serious beating, and nobody has been able to lay a glove on this one.

      What people who don't have a real live Earth scientist available for observation need to understand is that even proponents of the theory would love to see the skeptical position put up a decent fight. Data this unambiguous doesn't seem scientific. It's spooky. They'd rather see the theory knocked down onto the mat, then get up to fight another round and win by decision.

      People waited around for the skeptics to give this theory a solid hit, and in over twenty five years the skeptics have failed, over and over and over. First they argued that climate wasn't changing, and although they did manage to discredit some data sets, that position failed. Next they tried to explain the data in terms of non-anthropogenic causes; at best they've forced some changes in models and in the predicted ranges of change. So far as I know, no attempt to explain the changes in climate data over the last fifty years in terms of natural cycles or statistical artifacts has held up to scrutiny.

      I understand that science is not a democracy; but it's not driven by individual data sets either. You have to look at how robust an hypothesis is, how it stands up under stress. Thus far, nobody has been able to seriously set the theory back. Who wouldn't want to do this, if they could? Discrediting anthropogenic climate change would be Nobel caliber work. It would be an immense service to humanity, comparable in importance if not greater than the discovery of the vaccine for polio, or penicillin was in medicine.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
  12. Re:Somewhere in the USA... by One+Louder · · Score: 4, Funny

    I'm waiting to see the live video footage of that scene where the poor sweet little baby polar bear is trapped on an ice floe which shrinks until he falls off to be eaten by sharks or some garbage like that *splash*

    It would be quite remarkable to have video footage of polar bears in the Antarctic.

  13. Re:As I've Said Before by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    This isn't offtopic... The mods must not have known that global warming is inversely proportional to the number of pirates on the high seas.

  14. Re:As I've Said Before by linhares · · Score: 2

    yeah, I know. But my links was from Berkeley. Stanford mods.

  15. Re:As I've Said Before by TapeCutter · · Score: 4, Insightful

    So by your reasoning we Aussies should not be arresting arsonists who are responsible for starting about 1/3 of all our bushfires. We should let them continue with their bussiness as usual because we know that the other 2/3 of bushfires are started by natural causes.

    BTW: This particular environmentalist doesn't care if you drive an SUV, a sherman tank, or a skateboard.

    --
    And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  16. Re:the main concern... by Schemat1c · · Score: 5, Funny

    Speaking from naval experience here...

    What does your bellybutton have to do with icebergs?

    --

    "Nobody knows the age of the human race, but everybody agrees that it is old enough to know better." - Unknown
  17. Re:Not that it matters ... by palegray.net · · Score: 5, Funny

    Now you've gone and ruined his nefarious plot to continuously drive his SUV until he's the proud new owner of oceanside property. In these uncertain economic times, how else is a fella supposed to increase his property value? Huh? Huh? Bastard.

  18. Re:Not that it matters ... by JWSmythe · · Score: 3, Insightful

        Not to argue the point, because it's always a holy war with folks, but there's some logistics to that, which you failed to see.

        If the seas rise by 10 to 20 feet at the coastlines, coastal areas will flood. That means the ports will be under water, and nothing will come in by sea. International imports will be severely hampered. Pretty much, if you can't bring it in by plane, it won't happen.

        If coastal areas flood, major highways, bridges, and train tracks will become unusable.

        People will migrate from the flooded areas to higher ground (like, your 900 feet up), but food supplies will be very limited, and transportation will be very difficult without oil coming into the country.

        So, even people living on high ground that won't be flooded will be affected.

    --
    Serious? Seriousness is well above my pay grade.
  19. Re:Somewhere in the USA... by scientus · · Score: 3, Informative

    This is it the season that it recedes. Its winter down there and only moving more into winter. Also, this shelf has been there for centuries, and now the whole thing is going to come unhinged.

  20. Re:Not that it matters ... by Cassius+Corodes · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Yes, because we have lost the technology to build ports...

    --
    Control is an illusion, order our comforting lie. From chaos, through chaos, into chaos we fly
  21. Re:the main concern... by Cassius+Corodes · · Score: 4, Funny

    Can we really discount the possibility of ice having stealth technology?

    --
    Control is an illusion, order our comforting lie. From chaos, through chaos, into chaos we fly
  22. Re:As I've Said Before by Beriaru · · Score: 2, Insightful

    We actively change our environment to our benefit. We light the night, warm our houses, deforest our countries, mine our resources...

    The argument of "it's natural" is stupid. If it's natural, modify nature. We are constantly doing it.
    Why? Because this change does NOT benefit us.
    So, nature doesn't want to change (or we don't know how to coerce her)?
    Well, at least don't help the change!

  23. Re:Somewhere in the USA... by praksys · · Score: 2, Informative

    Not so much. Winter is just starting in the southern hemisphere. The equinox was March 20 so in Antarctica the sun only went down a few weeks ago.

  24. "the wilkins ice shelf con job" by jaiteace · · Score: 3, Interesting

    >...and provides further evidence or rapid change in the region. Not everyone agrees. For another spin on this event take a look at http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Wilkins_Ice_Shelf_con.pdf which suggests that the evidence for rapid climate change in this area is missing and suggests that, at best, hyperbole is involved.

  25. Re:Not that it matters ... by interkin3tic · · Score: 5, Insightful

    "See doc, there's a natural progression to blood pressure. High low high low. It's going up,BFD.

    Now, I'm gunna eat this bag of potato chips and get a big mac and feel okay about it."

    You have to love it how some people cling to the first rationalization that allows them to keep doing what they want, from the time they're kids right up to when they die.

  26. Re:Not that it matters ... by CRCulver · · Score: 4, Informative

    The building of new ports takes years. They aren't something you can just knock up in a day.

  27. Re:Not that it matters ... by tezbobobo · · Score: 4, Funny

    Sure - five years to build a port. Then start on the next for when that port is drowned.

  28. SUVs are not safe. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    http://www.gladwell.com/2004/2004_01_12_a_suv.html

  29. That might be true, but by varghan · · Score: 4, Insightful

    the country I live in, the Netherlands, has one fourth of the land below sealevel by as much as 48 feet already. I guess we can handle a few additional feet of water. More water spurs great engineering, and has done so since medieval times. That doesn't mean you can't leave your SUV at home and take your bicycle to work today, though.

    1. Re:That might be true, but by Son+of+Byrne · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Not everyone lives in an area where bicycling to work is feasible. For instance, I used to try to ride to work about 15 miles one way each day. That wasn't really a big deal until I had a kid and decided to stop risking my life going to work and back each day.

      Our roads here are barely big enough for 2 cars to pass each other and don't have paved shoulders. Yet, I still see people riding on these roads. I think it's cool that they're not driving, but I know how dangerous it is and you won't catch me doing it.

      --
      I'd happily pay you Tuesday for a biopsy today!
  30. Re:Metric by badfish99 · · Score: 4, Funny

    For us Europeans, could somebody say how many Belgiums there are in a Jamaica, please?

  31. Re:the main concern... by Joebert · · Score: 2, Funny

    oh wait... I probably shouldn't go into that...

    That's what she said !

    --
    Wanna fight ? Bend over, stick your head up your ass, and fight for air.
  32. Re:Not that it matters ... by LordVader717 · · Score: 5, Informative

    Most estimates don't account for melting of continental Ice (Antarctic). That is because most expect the antarctic climate to be stable. The observed melting of Ice is worse than the estimates suggested by climate models.
    This causes concern that the antarctic climate could be much more dynamic than we think.

    A change in the climate of Antarctica could lead to large amounts of continental ice melting, which would lead to sea level rises much more than a couple of feet.

  33. And I would say by Sycraft-fu · · Score: 3, Insightful

    That if global warming really will be a very bad thing, then our energy should be spent trying to deal with it when it happens, not prevent it. Why? Well because we are pretty sure that the Earth has been much hotter (and cooler) in the past than it is now. We are about as certain as we can be that there has been a long history of climate fluctuations. Thus it doesn't matter if the current one is natural or man made, because we are going to have to deal with one like it at some point. So that means the real focus should be how to deal with the eventuality, not how to prevent this particular one, if it is in fact preventable.

    Unless we can get the ability to control the climate such that fluctuations like that won't happen again (and I seriously doubt that) then preparation is what we need. If we spend a great deal of effort preventing this shift, only to get screwed over by another one, then no good is done. Likewise if it turns out this shift is natural and nothing we can do will prevent it, again no good is done.

    Now this all assume you accept the idea that a slightly warmer average temperature will lead to disastrous conditions. However that does seem to be what is claimed in general. Well, if that is in fact what you believe, then you really should be advocating focusing on how to deal with it, not how to prevent it unless you believe you can prevent it when it isn't a human caused phenomena.

    1. Re:And I would say by TapeCutter · · Score: 3, Insightful

      So let me get this straight, your suggesting we ignore the leak in the hull and keep bailing?

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    2. Re:And I would say by AliasMarlowe · · Score: 2, Insightful

      So let me get this straight, your suggesting we ignore the leak in the hull and keep bailing?

      I don't exactly agree with GP either, but I think he's suggesting we invest in powerful bilge pumps (to continue your analogy). At least he didn't suggest the other landlubber approach to a leaky vessel: "If water's flowing in through this hole, then let's make a bigger hole lower down so it can flow back out..."
      So-called clean coal comes to mind, along with all of the arguments why less-developed countries should be allowed to increase their greenhouse emissions.

      --
      Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. - Voltaire
    3. Re:And I would say by Sycraft-fu · · Score: 2, Informative

      No, that is the opposite of what I argue, rather. The argument of "Let's fix this climate change because we caused it," is one that is like saying "Let's just bail the water out by hand because we made the hole in the sub, never mind that the thing may start leaking later at a rate we can't bail." My argument is that we instead spend the money on bilge pumps so we can survive the leak.

      What I mean is that if we indeed are the cause of this climate shift, and if we indeed can stop it, it still isn't worth it. Why? Because it'll happen at some point anyhow. The climate has never been static. At some point, we are going to have the world get hotter, no matter what we do. So, if that is a major problem, we need to be ready to deal with it, not trying to stop this one.

      To keep with your ship idea, you don't avoid sinking on a ship by spending your energy making sure nobody causes a leak. You avoid sinking by making sure the ship can stay afloat, even if it does have a leak, no matter if that leak was caused by someone on the ship or a natural phenomena. You discover that in reality this is precisely the case: Boats have bilge pumps (how many depends on the size) to remove water from the bilge. There is no way to keep the boat 100% free of leaks, so you pump the water out when it accumulates.

      Same idea here. Unless you have some suggestion as to how we can lock the climate in it's current state, remembering that it has always been in a state of flux, then we should be worrying about how we can survive the changes, not if we caused the present one.

  34. The Article Makes a good point by Lifyre · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It mentions that a lot of the dynamics of this situation are poorly understood. Whether or not you believe in global warming or what you think is causing it we don't know what the results are going to be.

    There are so many possibilities with some scientific basis and the whole environment as a system is so complex that we can't predict details. We can paint broad strokes of the future but saying the sea level is going to raise 2.37 feet and believing that the sea will raise exactly 2.37 feet put blinders on you just like believing that a Divine Being created the universe in 6 days.

    We have an idea of what MAY happen but there is so much complexity that we don't know what WILL happen. Right now it looks like shit is going to get warmer, ice is going to melt, sea levels will get higher and who knows the Gulf Stream may stop flowing causing Europe to get cold.

    Some of you seriously need to stop beating the Global Warming Manifesto like it is a Bible.

    --
    I'll meet you at the intersection of "Should be" and "Reality"
  35. Re:Not that it matters ... by linuxrocks123 · · Score: 5, Informative

    You laugh, but...

    http://www.physorg.com/news5619.html

    ---linuxrocks123

    --
    vi ~/.emacs # I'm probably going to Hell for this.
  36. Tabacoo science. by TapeCutter · · Score: 4, Informative

    Con job and spin are the correct terms for that particular web site.

    This is the second time this site has popped up in the last few days. It's run by one J. D'Aleo who is paid to do so by the "Science and Public Policy Institute", they are in turn backed by "Frontiers of Freedom" which is the lobbying brain child of this guy. They have a donate button on their site but their funding is otherwise obscured.

    Older readers may recall the "Frontiers of Freedom" also backed the tabacoo industry in their anti-science campaign.

    Disclaimer: I don't have anything against lobbyists or politicians until they pretend to be something they are not.

    --
    And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  37. Re:As I've Said Before by FTWinston · · Score: 2, Insightful

    It ain't about the ice caps, some of us want to try and save the people.

  38. 22 feet below, actually by berend+botje · · Score: 3, Informative

    Lowest point in the Netherlands is 6.76m (just over 22 feet) below sea-level, near Nieuwerkerk-aan-de-IJssel.

  39. Re:Somewhere in the USA... by MichaelSmith · · Score: 2, Funny

    I'm waiting to see the live video footage of that scene where the poor sweet little baby polar bear is trapped on an ice floe which shrinks until he falls off to be eaten by sharks or some garbage like that *splash*

    It would be quite remarkable to have video footage of polar bears in the Antarctic.

    Here in the southern hemisphere we call them Polar Koalas.

  40. Re:Not that it matters ... by Hognoxious · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I wonder if it would be possible to build floating ports

    Already done

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  41. Re:Not that it matters ... by Gandalf_Greyhame · · Score: 2, Informative

    and the seas will rise faster than the planning permission beuracracy can work its magic?

    It isn't called a bureaucracy for nothing.

    Just wait until we form a committee to look into the possibility of considering a tendering process for the production of the guidelines for selecting a committee to look into the possibility of constructing a sea port.

    Hell, this could take CENTURIES!

    --
    I am not stubborn. I am right!
  42. Re:Not that it matters ... by Sabriel · · Score: 2, Interesting

    What I want to know is the worst-case scenario. Say ALL of the world's ice melts. How high does the sea level rise? Has anyone done the definitive study? Links?

  43. Re:Not that it matters ... by molarmass192 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    If all the ice in the world were to melt, and the odds of this happening are virtually 0, then we're looking at a 200+ft rise in ocean levels. However, the higher probability estimates are for a 24 inch rise by 2100. Not a great source in itself but the references are not bad: http://science.howstuffworks.com/question473.htm

    --

    Good people do not need laws to tell them to act responsibly, while bad people will find a way around the laws-Plato
  44. Re:Ye Gods Moderators! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    He was responding to a post that logically explored the consequences of a 10 to 20 foot increase in the sea level, if it happened immediately and we did nothing about it.

    Sarcasm was appropriate.

  45. Titanic 2: This time it's personal! by agnosticanarch · · Score: 2, Funny

    ICEBERG!!!!

    --
    I contend that we are both atheists. I just believe in one fewer god than you do.
  46. Re:And what caused the earthquakes? by Rockoon · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Do you seriously think that earthquakes wouldnt cause of cracks in ice?

    As far as weathering effects in the Antarctic, precipation averages about 16.5cm annual, making it the largest desert in the world.

    The surface area of Antarctica is 14,200,000/km^2, so even though it is a desert, the amount of ice which would accumulate if there were no loss is staggering. This particular loss isn't very significant, but makes for a great story due to its surface area being equatable to something (ex: The state of RI) which is considered "large."

    What is important is the volume of ice lost by this event, not the area of ice lost. All of these news agencies have latched onto the area of ice lost, not its volume, and that is in part due to the scientists themselves wrapping this up as dramatic.

    --
    "His name was James Damore."
  47. Re:the main concern... by dkleinsc · · Score: 3, Funny

    Of course we can't. And what's worse, they can fire while cloaked.

    --
    I am officially gone from /. Long live http://www.soylentnews.com/
  48. Re:C'mon Mods.... by TapeCutter · · Score: 3, Informative

    Ice extent starts to grow/recede around the time of the equinox. March is always the low point for sea ice in the south, September is always the low point in the north. The high points are also marked by the equinox so that September is the high point in the south, March in the north.

    --
    And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  49. Re:Not that it matters ... by JWSmythe · · Score: 3, Informative

        No (obviously), but it would depend on how fast the water rises.

        Besides just the pesky problem of the port, there's the infrastructure that goes with it.

        For just one example, at 10', Manhattan would start looking like Venice. Tunnels, railways, and 3 major airports would become useless. There's a lot of infrastructure to rebuild elsewhere.

        If you look around, a lot of airports and power plants are situated very close to sea level, on the waterfront. Airports use this for noise abatement (the planes can take off over the water to keep from annoying people). Nuclear plants require lots of sea water for cooling.

        So, ports, sure they could be rebuilt. But have you ever watched what happens around the planning of new facilities? Years upon years of arguing points. People would argue about the environmental impact of the new facility, and the remains of the old facility.

        I don't know what the thresholds are, but I'm sure once you reach a critical point (say 10'), more cities will have problems quicker. Say between 10' and 15', there could be not only one or two, but dozens of major coastal cities that would need to be rebuilt simultaneously.

        Don't forget about fresh water reserves too. Water wells would start becoming contaminated with sea water too. You could rebuild the city near by, but can you restore their essential supplies like drinking water?

    --
    Serious? Seriousness is well above my pay grade.
  50. Re:Metric by PGillingwater · · Score: 3, Funny

    Belgium's area (assuming no mountains or hills) is 30,528 km^2. [Wikipedia]

    Jamaica's area is 11,100 km^2.

    Dividing, we see that there are 2.75 Jamaicas for every Belgium.

    On that basis, the Ice shelf is just over a third (0.364) the size of Belgium. Damn Flanders.

    --
    Paul Gillingwater
    MBA, CISSP, CISM
  51. Re:Not that it matters ... by chaim79 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Ice has a lower density than water, wouldn't that mean that it has less gravity then the water around it?

    --
    DEMETRIUS: Villain, what hast thou done?
    AARON: Villain, I have done thy mother.
    Shakespeare invents 'your mom'
  52. Re:As I've Said Before by Piranhaa · · Score: 2, Funny

    Hey, you got your information all wrong! Everyone knows you can go to your local neighbourhood Tim Horton's and buy an Ice Cap for $2.99.

  53. Re:As I've Said Before by Peter+La+Casse · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Carbon needs an internationaly agreed and enforced CAP on total emmissions in order to create an economically and environmentally sound market to TRADE it.

    That will not produce a shortest path solution to the problem. The fastest, least expensive and most humane solution is to quickly get the developing world past the high-pollution stage of industrialization. There are essentially two ways to make cleaner energy sources cost-competitive with dirtier ones: make the dirty ones more expensive or make the cleaner ones less expensive. The latter will ruin fewer lives in the long run.

  54. Melting Antarctic Ice Part of Natural Cycle by WayGoneDoug · · Score: 2, Informative

    Historical records for the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) show that it is particularly prone to rapid climate change--change that occurs in cycles of ~200 years and ~2500 years. By studying major transitions in plankton productivity in the western Antarctic, scientists have shown that "spectacular" ice-cover losses have happened many times in the past. In other words, the "unprecedented rapid loss of ice" from parts of Antarctica that global warming alarmists make so much of are a normal part of nature's cycles. What else would you expect during the peak of an interglacial warming period? This is from a paper titled "Recent Changes in Phytoplankton Communities Associated with Rapid Regional Climate Change Along the Western Antarctic Peninsula," by Martin Montes-Hugo, et al, in Science. For more see http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/melting-antarctic-ice-part-natural-cycle

  55. Re:Metric by oldhack · · Score: 3, Funny

    This is a family website. Please refrain from using the b word gratuitously.

    --
    Fuck systemd. Fuck Redhat. Fuck Soylent, too. Wait, scratch the last one.
  56. Re:Not that it matters ... by interstellar_donkey · · Score: 2, Interesting

    That or a brand new business of building cargo carrying submarines.

    --
    The Internet is generally stupid
  57. Re:Not that it matters ... by fugue · · Score: 3, Informative

    Well, most gas usage experts show that driving ~65 MPH is the sweet spot for optimal MPG. It's much better then 80 MPH, or 20 MPH in stop and go traffic.

    Given that wind resistance goes up as the square of your speed, and that rolling resistance is negligible at highway speeds, I am skeptical. Roughly, it takes 1.3 times the work (and 2.2 times the power) to cover a certain distance at 65mph than at 50mph. If drivetrains can be tuned to the tune of 30% just by fiddling with gearing, then cars would probably have more gears, or maybe CVTs. Also, this number is confirmed by my own very rough measurements in a few cars, when I actually have the discipline to drive 50mph over a long enough stretch of flat highway.

    Of course, you stipulated "stop-and-go traffic" in which case a huge portion of your gasoline is used to heat up your brake rotors. Fair enough. But 65mph cannot possibly be a magic number given similar acceleration profiles.

    --
    "The biggest problem with communication is the illusion that it has taken place."
  58. Global warming is a hoax! by fugue · · Score: 3, Funny

    Greenpeacers broke off that chunk in order to convince people that their fantasy "globular heating" religion is real. Or maybe it would have broken off anyways but humans aren't responsible--too many polar bears sitting around on an ice shelf for 6000 years are bound to cause some damage eventually. This might happen again if we don't kill all the polar bears. Actually, it's all a liberal pinko lie--you're so gullible, since the ice bridge is just fine, thanks very much. Scientists are out to destroy us all. Haven't you seen them in movies?

    --
    "The biggest problem with communication is the illusion that it has taken place."
  59. Re:Not that it matters ... by JWSmythe · · Score: 2, Insightful

        Actually, I was thinking more like better designed population centers away from the coastline, with more of an aim towards self sufficiency. With encouragement for people to move to the better nicer places, which could operate cleaner than our existing cities, we'd not only have a chance to fix a lot of broken things, but we'd be able to reduce our pollution output, so the ocean side problem wouldn't be one. But once the coastal areas are properly cleaned, they'd be a beautiful place to visit. :)

    --
    Serious? Seriousness is well above my pay grade.
  60. Re:Not that it matters ... by jafac · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Yeah, but what he and Lex Luthor stupidly failed to realize, is that whether you set-off nukes to trigger the San Andreas fault to drop California into the ocean, or if you drive your SUV to crank up global warming; one undeniable fact remains:

    You have just drowned all the people who even WANTED to live near the ocean. Your property values will NOT go up!!!

    --

    These are my friends, See how they glisten. See this one shine, how he smiles in the light.