Slashdot Mirror
Switching To Solar Power, One Year Later
ThinSkin writes "Slashdot readers may recall Loyd Case's series of articles illustrating his experiences after switching to solar power for his family home. Loyd shared his one month update, a six month update, and now finally concludes his series after one year of solar power. Despite the $38,000 initial cost for the setup, Loyd is very optimistic after a $3,000 savings in one year, meaning that in about 12 years he will break even — though he suspects ten years is a better estimate considering other factors. Other reasons such as feeling 'green,' increasing the property value of his house, and the 'spousal acceptance factor' all support Loyd's decision on why he'd do it all over again if he had to." The article is spread annoyingly over multiple pages, like everything at the site, and the print version omits the graphs.
ROE is a much better way of calculating economics than "payback time," by the way
http://www.geoffreylandis.com
So maybe it'll pay for itself in 12 years, but how long before those panels need to be replaced? That's what we really need to know in order to decide if he's actually saving money.
He sums the article up by claiming that his return will be sooner than 12 years based on changes in his electricity usage (like his daughter leaving for college). This is bad math. He would have changed his usage either way, so he can't really count those watts as impacted by his investment in the solar panels. Overall though it seems like he's getting a decent return on his investment.
Most manufacturers guarantee that their panels will give at least 90% of peak power at ten years, and 80% of power at 25 years. Yes, he's saving money.
- None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
To all the people mocking his investment, your missing one thing. You do not know what the price of energy is going to do in the next few years. The guy in the article however is guaranteed a minimum amount of power each year from his solar panels at a rate he knows. (His initial investment / Life time of the panels). If the companies decide to hike the prices in two years time due a deterioration in Gulf politics for example, he is sheltered from its effects and lets be honest it's very unlikely the price is going to go down per kwh. He is also sheltered to a certain extent from the failure of the power network so if a situation does arise where there are rolling blackouts again, he knows he will a least have some electricity each day. One of the things that people constantly underestimate the price of is certainty.
Futhermore, Wikipedia has this to say about Solar Panels and how efficient they are at a certain time frame:
Solar panels must withstand heat, cold, rain and hail for many years. Many Crystalline silicon module manufacturers offer warranties that guarantee electrical production for 10 years at 90% of rated power output and 25 years at 80%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_module
Most of the time, if you care for your family, that's the #1 factor in your decisions. Unless your ambition is one of those short-lived, Hollywood marriages.
"The agriculture ministry is not in charge of Gundam" - Japanese ministry official.
Why people still routinely neglect compound interesting I'll never know. If he took that $38,000 and put it in a long term investment at a mere 5%, he'd had 68242.54 at the end of 12 years. Yes, it's green, yes, it's cool, but no, he's not saving money.
Open Your Mind. Open Your Source.
... if the company in question is still around to stand behind it. I get a laugh out of roofers that offer 50 year guarantee on roofs when they know full well they themselves are unlike to be around by then. A lot can happen in 30 years.
ELOI, ELOI, LAMA SABACHTHANI!?
At the moment, though, you have to factor in the fact that we're about to hit some mondo inflation due to the money Obama's been printing. So, it's actually a good idea right now to get into things that aren't pegged to the actual dollars. This guy is basically buying his electricity up front before his $40k is worthless.
Can you be Even More Awesome?!
I've written a blog on my solar water heater which covers about the same year period as Loyd's solar panels about 100 miles north of Sunnyvale. Loyd's story is very useful to me as I've been debating if solar panels would improve the efficiency of the solar water heater. I'm still not sure this was a wise financial investment, but I do like how I get free hot water when the sun is out and the hot water never runs out (like with a tankless). Anyway, for those interested in solar water heating: http://suburbiasolarwaterheating.blogspot.com/
But there's no hard guarantee. Sure there is. Go read up on Peak Oil. Then go read what anybody's doing about it. (Hint: Apart from mostly singular projects like the one in TFA, mostly jack shit.) Electricity prices will go up.
Except for the fact that only around 1.5% of the US electricity generation comes from the use of oil. Take a look here: Net Generation by Energy Source by Type of Producer. Out of a little more than 4,000,000 MWH of electricity generated, about 65,000 MWH came from petroleum.
I'm not not licking toads.
I deployed solar panels when I replaced my roof in 2004; the total out of pocket cost after state rebates and federal and state taxes was $14,612. The system generates about 15 KwH on a good day; I live in a tract home in Mountain View, CA. So far, the panels have generated 19,225 KwH, which reduced my energy bill by $10,392 as of May, 2009. I've not seen the expected degradation in the power production, but it's difficult to measure due to changes in the weather -- it's entirely possible that 2004-2005 were cloudier than 2007-2008, or something like that. In any event, the system has delivered between 3819 and 3930 KwH every year. I'm extraordinarily happy with the way this has worked out.
Exactly.
It means Return ON Investment.
Not Return OF Investment.
No money will be saved on this scheme until AFTER 10 or 12 years.
However even this is optimistic, because what is eventually returned on this investment will be worth far less than an equivalent amount today.
Further, maintenance costs will start to accrue well before that, and replacement parts will be needed for stuff that was obsolete the day it was installed, and may not even be available then.
There may be better equipment and cheaper equipment then. But more likely the failing part will be some obscure little piece requiring the replacement of some expensive big piece.
This is the risk of buying into a developing technology. The payoff is a long way down the road. Usually beyond the next generational change in the technology.
Still, it takes people like Loyd to go out there and do it with what is available, because we can't wait for the perfect solution or we would all still be living in Caves.
Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
Except that we're not. Seriously off-topic, but inflation isn't unpredictable. Right now, the double-digit unemployment and positive savings rate we have suggests people are hording their cash, not shopping with abandon.
As soon as any of the indicators go up (these are pretty reliable predictors of activity), the FED simply filters the money out of the banks, rates go up for daily business paper and money is more scarce.
It's been managed this way for 3 decades, and fairly stable since 1983. Check for yourself.
I'm in a situation where I'm not looking for ROI - I'm off-grid, and getting the mains connected has been quoted at AUD$33,000 PLUS tree-clearing costs. My latest upgrade (new 1320ah battery bank, 6x165w panels, regulator, frames & installation) cost AUD$23,000. It was subsidised at 50% so we only paid AUD$11,500, but even if it wasn't, it's still cheaper than getting the mains on.
They sentenced me to twenty years of boredom
All I keep seeing around here is the depreciating power generation of solar panels... blah blah blahh...
It takes maybe an hour of your time, and ~$100-200/panel to replace 20 panels.
If in 15 years, he buys new panels, with better efficiency, for 4k, and an hours worth of his time, he's just reset his investment with a MUCH better payoff. The cabeling, and inverter will not fail that fast. The inspection won't change for a replacement. There'll be virtually 0 costs.
I have 600w of grid tied, net & production metered solar on my house. The coolest part? I did it for almost nothing. Bought everything on E-bay. Hardest part was complying with code, which looking back was really just a mere nuisance.
This isn't rocket science. If you pay someone to do it, they have to charge a ton because they are
1. Licensed electricions,
2. It's a business
3. they require certain bonds and insurances.
If you do it yourself (can you understand parallel & series circuits and do you know how to count, add, multiply, etc volts, amps & watts? you're qualified!) to your own house, you can get a system for MUCH less than 50K. bonus as your ROI is better, even better is that it makes more extreme lattitudes viable.
It's not ton's of $, but it does keep the house cool.
How much is your data worth? Back it up now.