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California's Revised Pay-As-You-Drive Insurance Draws Continued Objections

The EFF has restated many of their original privacy objections about California's latest revision to the Pay-As-You-Drive auto insurance proposal. Admitting that the amended bill is an improvement, privacy advocates are still uneasy about the surveillance implications of this program. "The proposal centers on a simple idea: infrequent drivers are less of an insurance risk. By pricing policies according to the mileage driven, insurance companies can offer discounts to lower-risk infrequent drivers, and put an appropriate cost penalty on heavy drivers. The state estimates that 30% adoption of PAYD insurance nationwide would reduce miles driven by at least 10% among subscribers, and save 55 million tons of CO2 over the next ten years. The benefits of such a system could be quite dramatic, as California Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner is sure to emphasize. Such insurance plans first became available in 2004, and are now available as a limited option in 30 US states from insurance companies like Progressive and Liberty Mutual."

30 of 411 comments (clear)

  1. Bell curve??? by Foofoobar · · Score: 4, Insightful

    How is someone who drives less better at driving? It would seem someone who drives less frequently is less practiced and would be a greater risk as compared to someone who is a regular driver. There must be some sort of bell curve where the people on the ends pay more.

    --
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    1. Re:Bell curve??? by SlashDev · · Score: 3, Informative

      It's not whether they are better at driving, it is that the risk of them being in an accident is smaller, as they interact less with other drivers, who maybe bad drivers.

      --

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    2. Re:Bell curve??? by Hope+Thelps · · Score: 3, Informative

      How is someone who drives less better at driving?

      Not better at driving. Less of an insurance risk. At one extreme end of the scale you have the person who doesn't drive at all - just leaves his car in the driveway. Almost zero risk. At the opposite extreme end you have people who spend most of their lives driving - almost certainly higher risk of being in an accident even if it's a freak accident that you can't really blame them for. I don't have the stats so maybe I'm wrong but it does seem likely that you can identify a class of low freqency drivers that are unlikely to have an accident because they spend little time driving.

      --
      To summarise the summary of the summary: people are a problem. ~ h2g2
    3. Re:Bell curve??? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I know it is common practice on Slashdot to speculate beased on no more information than your initial gut reaction, but this sort of thing is actually the core business of insurance companies. They have people who are quite skilled statisticians, call actuaries, who fiddle over mountains of data to decide how much to charge who in order to maximize profit while still being able to offer comeptitive premiums.

      Because you know what a bell curve is doesn't put you in league with these people and your elementary passive aggressive questions do nothing to further anyone's understanding of anything. Not even your own.

    4. Re:Bell curve??? by localman57 · · Score: 5, Informative

      Of course a driver who drives more is higher risk. Suppose that over my lifetime I drive one million miles. And my friend, who likes hugging trees, saving whales and composting his lunch leftovers in his pocket, only drives a lifetime total of 100k miles.
      Why would his first 100k miles be any less risky than my first 100k miles? The risk of my first 100k miles will not be lessened by the fact that I intend to drive more in the future.
      Therefore, unless I have zero risk of an accicident in my final 900k miles, my lifetime risks are higher than his, all other things being equal.

    5. Re:Bell curve??? by Sparr0 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Even if driver safety is inversely proportional to driving time, it is so at some ratio less than 1:1.

      That is, consider 3 people. Bob drives 1 mile a year, and has a 1% chance of getting in an accident for every mile he drives. Tom drives 100 miles a year and has a .1% chance of getting in an accident for every mile he drives. Jim drives 10000 miles a year and has a .01% chance of getting in an accident for every mile he drives.

      Bob is going to get in one accident every 100 years. Tom is going to get in 1 accident every 10 years. Jim is going to get in 1 accident every year.

      To be more realistic I would say decrease the %s by a factor of 1000, and increase the miles by a factor of 10.

      Why does Bob's insurance cost almost as much as Jim's, currently?

    6. Re:Bell curve??? by CosmeticLobotamy · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Most accidents happen within, I think it was five or ten miles of a person's home.

      Most driving happens within five or ten miles of a person's home.

    7. Re:Bell curve??? by Mister+Whirly · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Bah, statistics. They can be used to prove ANYTHING.

      --
      "But this one goes to 11!"
    8. Re:Bell curve??? by cez · · Score: 3, Funny

      Most accidents happen within, I think it was five or ten miles of a person's home.

      I hear this every so often... That's why I keep moving!

      --
      Walk with Music;
    9. Re:Bell curve??? by cduffy · · Score: 3, Interesting

      The car/truck has nothing to do with the moron driver.

      But it does have something to do with the accident rate.

      Maybe more aggressive people tend to buy a certain kind of vehicle.

      Maybe some vehicles are more prone to flipping over in accidents.

      Maybe some vehicles have lower accident rates on account of their anti-lock brakes and other safety features.

      Insurance companies study these things, and their differences in rates are based on statistics. If they knew the future and could predict with perfect accuracy your future driving record, they could find the right rate for you personally every time -- but since they aren't omniscient, statistics are what we've got.

    10. Re:Bell curve??? by MurphyZero · · Score: 3, Insightful

      And if insurance companies could get the expectations exactly right, then no one would buy insurance. Whatever price they offered it at, just save that money and pay the bills when they arrive. You'd be certain to be ahead. If it was too expensive, public transportation would probably be cheaper.

      --
      Our founding fathers removed the guys in charge. Be American. Vote incumbents out.
  2. I drive exactly as much as I need to by daVinci1980 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Why would anyone think that paying by the mile would reduce the amount I'm driving?

    I don't go on long jaunts around the town just for the hell of it, I go because I need to get somewhere, or pick something up.

    So pretty much what this would do is either be a savings for me--because it'd be less than my buffet style policy--or it'd be more expensive for me. I'm guessing that the majority of people, myself included, would fall into the latter category.

    --
    I currently have no clever signature witicism to add here.
  3. how could it save... by MoFoQ · · Score: 4, Insightful

    just don't know how it can save "55 million tons of CO2 a year"....people who drive a little will continue to drive a little with this insurance or not.

    I hate it when they fudge numbers and try to draw a causation out of it.
    A chicken didn't lay an egg because there was a law passed that gave tax incentives to the chickens to lay eggs....

    I hate it even more when politicians take credit for something that has nothing to do with anything.

  4. The Most Interesting Man in the World by StikyPad · · Score: 4, Funny

    I don't drive very often, but when I do drive, I always have a case of Dos Equis with me.

  5. Not just privacy concerns by geekoid · · Score: 4, Interesting

    but it lacks any practicality fo California.

    All this will do is make insurance unaffordable to low income families that have toi drive due to the distance they must commute. Meaning more uninsured motorists.

    They al ready take it into account some what, and that's enough.

    This is just attempt to squeeze another dime out of people who must have this service.

    Quite frankly, if the Government is going to mandate insurance, then it should also offer a base insurance program, at cost.
    Just one that covers the minimum insurance levels. If you want more, then you can buy more from an insurance company.

    --
    The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  6. insurance at the gas pump by hypethetica · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I'd always thought it would be a neat idea to roll auto insurance in at the gas pump. No more uninsured drivers, plus it would be an incentive to reduce driving. obviously LOTS of holes in the plan, but it would eliminate the big brother aspect of this proposal.

  7. I don't get it by mcgrew · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Insurance companies already charge more if you drive more; all of them that I know of ask how much you drive. I actually started to RTFA, but there's little to no explanation of what the "pay as you go" does, and as I don't live in California it's not likely to affect me unless it's adopted by other states.

    Can anybody clarify for me?

  8. But that is nonsensical! by Gonoff · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Sunday drivers have got to be the most dangerous people on the road.

    Someone who drives 100K miles a year is going to have a lot more miles between accidents than someone who does 5K.

    --
    I'll see your Constitution and raise you a Queen.
    1. Re:But that is nonsensical! by mcgrew · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The insurance company doesn't care how many miles you drive between accidents, it cares about how many accidents you have between years.

  9. Re:Oh crap. by NiteMair · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I dunno about others, but all of a sudden, I'd have an incentive to find the shortest router from point A to point B, even if that means city-streets instead of expressway. This means I'll be sitting in heavy traffic, clogging up the streets, taking longer to reach my destination, and probably causing more accidents and safety issues.

  10. This system is already in place! by jtownatpunk.net · · Score: 3, Insightful

    WTF? Am I missing something? Last time I got insurance for a vehicle (in California!), the guy writing the policy asked me how many miles I expect to drive per year. They have a number of mileage brackets that are used in the calculation of your premium. The more miles you drive in a year, the more money you pay. Back in the before time, I had a classic car that was a weekend ride. Insurance was cheap because it was classified as "pleasure use" and driven less than a thousand miles per year. I don't think I've ever had a situation where the estimated annual mileage wasn't used to calculate the premium.

  11. Re:Privacy? by Red+Flayer · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I get cheap insurance because I only drive on weekends. My insurance company just wants to check the reading on my car's mileage meter every six months or so.

    Lucky you. Back when I had a long commute -- despite the fact that I took mass transit to my office (with a two-mile drive to the train station) my insurance company assumed I drove to my office each day. I provided train receipts, pictures of my odometer, etc... I offered to have their agent inspect my odometer in person... but to no avail. They based their rates on a 120-mile round trip despite the fact that I drove four miles daily.

    I eventually switched insurance carriers, but I overpaid on my insurance for six months because those douchebags couldn't grok the idea that someone might take mass transit even when they own a car.

    --
    "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
  12. Re:Privacy? by Sparr0 · · Score: 4, Informative

    I agree. Odometer checks seem far less invasive, and cheaper, than GPS. Also, already illegal to tamper with, while I can think of all sorts of ways to interfere with GPS tracking.

  13. Re:Less driving = lower risk? by eth1 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Cost them money? Not likely. Mark my words, they'll charge people that drive less the same that they pay now, and charge people that drive the most even more.

  14. Really? Then shit, I'm moving! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    This driving close to home bit sounds dangerous!

  15. MyRate by Progressive by Wisconsingod · · Score: 4, Informative

    MyRate by Progressive (as mentioned in the summary) has been around for quite some time (in select states) and I am a longtime customer. Here is how it works:

    You get a computer chip that installs on the ODBCII port on your computer. Every 6 months (when you renu your policy), you pull out the chip, plug it into your computer via USB, and upload the data with your policy renewal request. You can view charts of your driving speeds, times, etc.

    Progressive then offers you a discount percentage off of your base premium. They have an explicit policy that utilizing this chip cannot INCREASE your premium, only give you the option of a discount (in other words, we overprice our policy, but give you an option to recoup it if you drive less)

    The discounts are as follows:
    5% = participation discount
    5% = safety discount (stay below 75mph and the discount is yours)
    up to 10% = based on driving time / milage.

    The 10% is calculated roughly as such.
    At the beginning of the tracking period, you are given a 10% discount. then for every mile you drive, that percentage is reduced by a fraction. That fraction (something around 0.0006% per mile) is determined based on the time classification you drive. they have 3 classifications of driving time, low, medium, & high. High are times such as rush hour, and overnight, medium are weekends & lunch hour, low is everything else.

    Ultimately, with both the safety discount and the amount I drive, I end up with somewhere around a 16% discount off my policy renewal.

    It can be compared to the california policy, but in reality the current offered program seems quite different from the proposal.

  16. Rush Hour? by Jaeph · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The premise is faulty. Open highway driving is far safer than inner-city rush hour traffic.

    You need to consider the conditions, not just the distance.

    -Jeff

    --
    Please learn the difference between a dissenting opinion and a troll before you moderate.
    1. Re:Rush Hour? by Nerdfest · · Score: 4, Informative

      Highway accidents generally have more serious damages and injuries.

  17. **Privacy** is the issue. by bcrowell · · Score: 4, Informative

    I've combed through the 108 comments so far that have been modded 2 or above, and not a single one of them shows any awareness of what the article actually talks about. Has anybody actually read the article? Oh, wait, this is slashdot...

    The article helpfully explains that the main issue being raised by the EFF is privacy. Um, it's not exactly subtle...the article has a big image of a poster with a man's face, with the slogan "BIG BROTHER IS WATCHING YOU."

    What the EFF is objecting to is the idea of using electronic monitoring to measure the number of miles driven. The article (remember that article thingie? it's got that little underlining thingie, with the text in a different color, so you can click on it, and it's, like, a hyperlink, so you can go and read it?) lays out some objections to this, such as the tendency the government has demonstrated since 9/11 to go nuts with intrusive monitoring of its citizens. The concern is that the government will then be able to tell where every citizen drives. That's pretty darn scary, if you think about it.

  18. California needs to back off. by cyn1c77 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    It's good to see that California isn't letting their impending bankruptcy hold back their socialist agenda.

    I lived in LA for 6 years. California is probably one of the worst places to try to implement this program as: (1) they have a massive amount of urban sprawl, (2) Los Angeles has incredibly inefficient public transportation, (3) and there are broad swaths of the state where driving is almost a necessity for people who can't afford to live in the communities that they work in.

    Is this really such a problem that is needs to be addressed right now? As others have said, there are going to be no deals here. Insurance companies will make sure that they profit over this little experiment. Furthermore, the state officials may mean well, but the federal government has shown that they will not hesitate to violate our privacy. Why give them another mechanism to do so?

    But what really puts the cherry on the cake are the little comments that this will reduce CO2 emissions. Newsflash: Most people don't drive more than they need to, and the ones that drive for fun are just going to pay the tax and keep driving. Why does every method for reducing CO2 emissions have to involve punishing people while giving money to industry for absolutely no innovation? Do you think I like sitting in traffic with 3 other carpoolers? Build some efficient public transportation that actually works and people will take it. Reduce urban sprawl by not allowing people to build homes anywhere they feel like. Those are the techniques to reduce driving. Look at NY city. Look at all of Europe.