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Newly Declassified FBI Docs Reveal Predictive Data System

An anonymous reader writes 'Newly declassified documents show that the FBI is developing a data-mining system to uncover terror sleeper cells. Among the 1.6 billion records in the National Security Analysis Center — tens of thousands of travel records, including hotel and airline records. Other revelations in the documents uncovered by a Wired.com FOIA request show that the feds want to expand the system for use in cyber-crime investigations, and it's already been used to scrutinize helicopter pilots and Philly cab drivers. The system has eerie resemblances to DARPA's once-banned Total Information Awareness program."

185 comments

  1. I've got an idea by davidwr · · Score: 5, Insightful

    How about a data mining application to scour through political speeches and legislative records to identify politicians most- and least-likely to support such a scheme?

    --
    Knowledge is how to play a game, intelligence is how to win, wisdom is knowing what game to play.
    1. Re:I've got an idea by rimugu · · Score: 5, Insightful

      It wouldn't work. When have you heard about a political speech and reality having any connection?

    2. Re:I've got an idea by Culture20 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      How about a data mining application to scour through political speeches and legislative records to identify politicians most- and least-likely to support such a scheme?

      You'll have faster I/O if you focus on searching for the ones that aren't likely.

    3. Re:I've got an idea by Jurily · · Score: 2, Informative

      When have you heard about a political speech and reality having any connection?

      Oooh, I have one! It even has its own article in Wikipedia.

    4. Re:I've got an idea by HornWumpus · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I get what you are saying but your examples are only true in narrow contexts.

      Ds want you to have the freedom to make lots of choices they approve of, just like Rs. (they just approve of different things)

      Ds fully approve of their freedom to make money off the public, just like Rs.

      You have to translate based on who is saying it and what (s)he is talking about.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    5. Re:I've got an idea by Marcika · · Score: 2, Informative

      When have you heard about a political speech and reality having any connection?

      Oooh, I have one! It even has its own article in Wikipedia.

      Fixed that for you... (And yes, someone ought to tell the Slashcode monkeys that 7-bit ASCII is only sufficient for 5% of the world's population...)

    6. Re:I've got an idea by wellingj · · Score: 1

      I've never checked but does slashdot come in any other language than the one read by the 5%?

    7. Re:I've got an idea by Marcika · · Score: 1

      I've never checked but does slashdot come in any other language than the one read by the 5%?

      Yes, there are versions of Slashcode that can deal with unicode perfectly fine, but slashdot.org has chosen to filter out anything not in ASCII.

      I heard that this was apparently a "fix" for people playing around impersonating other users by using similar characters in their usernames and suchlike. One might think that it wouldn't be much effort to put in a whitelist for some frequently-used glyphs and alphabets, but then, I'm the guy with the 7-digit-uid...

    8. Re:I've got an idea by jcr · · Score: 1

      There are only two congressmen who wouldn't support it. There are also a handful who would oppose it if and only if their party wasn't in power.

      -jcr

      --
      The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
    9. Re:I've got an idea by cenc · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      Just turn on FOX.

    10. Re:I've got an idea by Tubal-Cain · · Score: 2, Informative
    11. Re:I've got an idea by he-sk · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Wow, what an ignorant statement. Slashdot frequently posts articles from countries where they don't speak English. Zensursula, HADOPI, Piratpartiet are just three examples at the top of my head.

      People post stuff in their native tongue all the time on Slashdot, and have complained about the broken Unicode support for ages.

      Slashdot sees itself as a major internet publication, but still lives in a 7-bit world. What is this, 1985?

      --
      Free Manning, jail Obama.
    12. Re:I've got an idea by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      If you think Obama is stupid and a pawn I've got a bridge to sell ya.

      It'll make a set with the one you bought last Nov.

      They are all crooked.

      If they weren't they would have gotten an honest job.

      They were all crooked from the moment they entered high school Student council, some earlier.

      Sense that time it's just been the crookocracy finding the best (and best connected) talkers. The losers are selling used cars/insurance/plots.

      Finally kicking foreign ass when needed (like in Afghanistan) is one of the few legitimate roles for government.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    13. Re:I've got an idea by Lesrahpem · · Score: 1

      How about we go the whole nine yards, and impliment a full scale government, politician, and business/commerce data mining system that's open, p2p, and usable by anyone? You know, just to keep things fair. I'm sure they'd have no problem with us keeping the same tabs on them that they'd like to keep on us. We'll call the system Press, because afterall, the press doesn't do their job, but maybe a system like this would.

    14. Re:I've got an idea by mysidia · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Forget political speeches... how about campaign contributions and votes?

    15. Re:I've got an idea by mysidia · · Score: 1

      And I posted the wrong link, it's really maplight.org

      Hint: this type of data mining is already happening.

    16. Re:I've got an idea by mysidia · · Score: 1

      All the time -- most political speeches have a connection with reality:

      They're the absolute opposite of reality. That's the connection they have with reality.

    17. Re:I've got an idea by Anci3nt+of+Days · · Score: 1

      ... or more importantly, when searching judicial decisions when appointing a new judge.

      After all, judges decide 'fairly', just some decide more fairly than others.

    18. Re:I've got an idea by davFr · · Score: 1

      And how about a data mining application to trackdown money laundry ?

      I mean fiscal evasion to Switzerland, Monaco, St Marin, Andorre, Anguilla, Antigua et Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Bahrein, Belize, Bermudes, Virgin Islands, CaÃman Island, Cook, Turks & Caicos, Dominique, Gibraltar, Grenade, Liberia, Liechtenstein, Iles Marshall, Monaco, Montserrat, Nauru, Dutch Antilles, Niue, Panama, Saint Kitts & Nevis, Sainte Lucie, Saint Vincent & Grenadine, Samoa, San Marin, Vanuatu... and so on?

      It would certainly be more efficient and useful. It would even help to cut the money resources of terrorists.

      --
      RIP Slashdot. I used to love you. dead account - but slashdot wont let me delete it.
    19. Re:I've got an idea by getuid() · · Score: 1

      Zensursula, HADOPI, Piratpartiet...

      What is this, 1985?

      Not yet. But don't you worry, we're getting there...

    20. Re:I've got an idea by jonbryce · · Score: 1

      Yes, English. If you want to express amounts of money in units other than dollars, you have to type the html code for the currency unit rather than the character on your keyboard.

    21. Re:I've got an idea by CarpetShark · · Score: 1

      How about a data mining application to scour through political speeches and legislative records to identify politicians most- and least-likely to support such a scheme?

      "Such a scheme" meaning "terrorist cells", right? ;)

    22. Re:I've got an idea by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It is already in place? The fact that we have the FBI system operational means "your" system was already used to s(elect) the politicians which would OK FBI's?

    23. Re:I've got an idea by Seriousity · · Score: 2, Funny

      What is this, 1985?

      In light of the subject matter, I would say no, it is 1984.

      --
      This post was made in complete sincere seriousity; as such any attempts to derive humour are doomed to instant failure.
    24. Re:I've got an idea by TheRaven64 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Even those of us in English-speaking countries run into problems. Want to refer to Euros, Pounds Sterling, or Japanese Yen? Sorry, none of those characters are accepted. You can type them, but Slashcode will mangle them (after submission, not always after preview) unless you remember to use HTML entities. Want to mention the app-switching feature on OS X? I'm afraid you'll have to mangle the name to Expose, because this is what Slashdot displays if you type it correctly: Exposé.

      There were two reasons for blocking unicode (which used to work). One was people signing up with names that were almost the same as other users but with similar glyphs. That is trivial to fix; only permit ASCII for usernames. The other was people putting things like the right-to-left reading order character in the middle of their post, inverting the order of the rest of the page. That is easily fixed by a simple blacklist on the range of unicode characters that controls formatting.

      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
    25. Re:I've got an idea by TheRaven64 · · Score: 1

      How about we go the whole nine yards, and impliment a full scale government, politician, and business/commerce data mining system that's open, p2p, and usable by anyone?

      We have one in the UK and, best of all, it's government-funded.

      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
    26. Re:I've got an idea by fulldecent · · Score: 2, Funny

      !todhsalS no skrow llits retcarahc l-t-r ehT ?tuoba gniklat uoy era tahW

      --

      -- I was raised on the command line, bitch

    27. Re:I've got an idea by speedtux · · Score: 1

      They do have a connection: politicians do the opposite of what they say.

      Like when the "family values" politicians do prostitutes and drugs.

    28. Re:I've got an idea by wellingj · · Score: 1

      Wow, what an inflammatory statement. I knew I had ignorance that's why I asked for information.

  2. Give up? by girlintraining · · Score: 1, Insightful

    You know what, after all these years in IT, I say... give 'em as much data as they want. They'll choke and drown on it. The FBI is the most massively disorganized organization in the US Government. I would not worry about your privacy... they have trouble figuring out how to dress themselves in the morning.

    --
    #fuckbeta #iamslashdot #dicemustdie
    1. Re:Give up? by Monkeedude1212 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I know eh? Us guys in IT, we have to handle alot. All those log files, so little time to sift through them all. How do you find the problem? I mean if only there was a program to help us sort through it --

      Oh hey, whats this ad for? Splunk?

      Could that handle Travel, hotel, and airline records that the FBI have been gathering?

    2. Re:Give up? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      bwwwwwuuuuuuaaaaahhhhhh...

      I'll buy that for a dollar!!!

      -sid

    3. Re:Give up? by TheBilgeRat · · Score: 2, Informative

      amen. as a federal sector person myself, I honestly am amazed that any branch of the government functions at all. Fraud, waste and abuse are at every level-mostly due to the bureaucracy. They'll shove that data into some database, build a "new and improved" proprietary frontend for Oracle (check that-they'll contract it out, take the "lowest" bid, and spend the next five years patching it into oblivion), and browbeat the probies rounded up to operate it when all it can produce is that Americans buy lots of beer and that Hoover was a cross-dresser.

      not that I'm a bitter federal employee managing a POS database or anything...

    4. Re:Give up? by wizardforce · · Score: 4, Insightful

      they don't need to be omniscient to be a threat to the public. all they need to do is be able to go after enough people to make the public think twice about challenging them.

      --
      Sigs are too short to say anything truly profound so read the above post instead.
    5. Re:Give up? by Vainglorious+Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      give 'em as much data as they want. They'll choke and drown on it

      I wouldn't be so sure about that - I've heard there are machines available nowadays which are specifically designed to store and rapidly process information in vast amounts. They're called conpewters or something like that.

      --
      My next sig will be ready soon, but subscribers can beat the rush
    6. Re:Give up? by neurogeneticist · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Mod this guy up. As someone from a field who tries to separate signal from noise and develop predictive models on a daily basis (in supposedly well-controlled conditions) I can say that they have their work cut out for them. I mean, I use proven methodologies in clear-cut and well-designed experiments and end up with data that is extremely difficult to manipulate (genome wide association studies). These guys/gals are trying to observe millions of humans interacting in indiosyncratic and complex ways with millions of input-points, and they think they can use that data? Talk about multiple-testing correction. Bonferroni is the tip of the iceberg in such a data-set. The scary thing is, if you set something like this up, you will get "answers". It might be the result of a random walk, but who in the "jury of your peers" is going to understand that defense? "But your honor, they didn't even define an acceptable false discovery rate!"

    7. Re:Give up? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      amen. as a federal sector person myself,

      A federal sector person? Is that a euphemism for "long-term resident of a federal corrective establishment"?

    8. Re:Give up? by poetmatt · · Score: 1

      If push comes to shove, the public can defeat *any* government. No force can handle 10-50 times it's numbers. As the phrase goes "you're gonna run out of bullets".

      Easier example: taser guns can be fired at max, 3 times. 500 angry people vs 10 angry cops? well gee, guess who's going to be running away first.

    9. Re:Give up? by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 5, Insightful

      It isn't so much the privacy that is of concern (though that is a concern, too). The problem with so much data is false positives, and the abuse that results from them.

      Look up how Bayes' Theorem relates to random drug testing, for example. You will easily see how such systems are prone to false positives. And in a case like this -- where many magnitudes more people are innocent than guilty -- it gets that much worse. You will end up prosecuting (and possibly punishing) hundreds or thousands of innocent people for every guilty party you find.

      NOT GOOD.

    10. Re:Give up? by Duradin · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The public challenging them isn't the problem. It's the guys after their 72 virgins and THEY ARE NOT "THE PUBLIC".

      Making the public think twice does nothing but make our lives more of a hassle. Making the guys seeking an express check in to paradise think twice doesn't do much good either. They are planning to die, and that's if the operation is successful. Taking one for the sleeper cell and getting caught just means the guys in the next cell will be getting first choice in the afterlife.

      Eventually terrorists won't have to actually do anything. They come up with a zany and half-baked plan, get caught, cause everyone to overreact and then they've caused more damage then if they actually did manage to blow something up.

    11. Re:Give up? by thewils · · Score: 4, Insightful

      give 'em as much data as they want

      But then they'll be successful in their primary objective, which is self-perpetuation and a larger budget next year.

      --
      Once I was a four stone apology. Now I am two separate gorillas.
    12. Re:Give up? by rcamans · · Score: 1

      But wait - I thought they only had the one last suit they will ever wear?

      --
      wake up and hold your nose
    13. Re:Give up? by Darkness404 · · Score: 1

      The problem is, they think when dealing with "terrorists" that the more people we put in prison or investigate heavily the safer we are. They think that false positives are a fail-safe, which in reality they aren't.

      --
      Taxation is legalized theft, no more, no less.
    14. Re:Give up? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Easier example: taser guns can be fired at max, 3 times. 500 angry people vs 10 angry cops? well gee, guess who's going to be running away first.

      Do the 10 angry cops open up on the 500 people with automatic weapons?

      If yes, then the 500 people will break and run.

      If no, then the cops will run.

    15. Re:Give up? by TheBilgeRat · · Score: 1

      I wish- at least in jail you get 3 hots and a cot... :)

    16. Re:Give up? by ogdenk · · Score: 1

      I imagine working in government IT doesn't feel all that much different. You just get to go outside more.

    17. Re:Give up? by blackraven14250 · · Score: 1

      It doesn't matter. If the cops do open up, they have no more people to exert authority over, and they'll kill each other sooner or later trying to exert some sort of authority, destroying any chance they might have of exerting said authority

      If the cops don't open up, they'll run, and lose the authority anyway.

      They're in a serious lose-lose in that situation.

    18. Re:Give up? by poetmatt · · Score: 1

      not that I want to encourage rebelliousness, violent, or crazy rightwing concepts, but do you think civil wars involve the police or military? I'll give you a hint: smart police stay way the hell out of it as best they can (as they like to live/have families too). Even in Iraq you should note that as examples.

      if people are quite determined to riot/aggress there's no force that can stop that without causing a mass killing the likes of which would not be authorized by any force in the US, for sure.

    19. Re:Give up? by blackraven14250 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      They come up with a zany and half-baked plan, get caught, cause everyone to overreact and then they've caused more damage then if they actually did manage to blow something up.

      Seems to be the way it works now....

    20. Re:Give up? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If the 500 people are the teabaggers we just saw in DC - the 500 people. They're fucking chickens, both literally and figuratively.

    21. Re:Give up? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I hope EDS gets the contract.

    22. Re:Give up? by nurb432 · · Score: 1

      Today perhaps. While i don't buy they would choke on it, lets say for a mom,et that is true. But in time they would get past that and then have all this data to work with.

      --
      ---- Booth was a patriot ----
    23. Re:Give up? by wizardforce · · Score: 4, Insightful

      No force can handle 10-50 times it's numbers.

      they can if they are the only ones with defensive weapons.

      --
      Sigs are too short to say anything truly profound so read the above post instead.
    24. Re:Give up? by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      I don't look forward to bailing my mom out of prison for her planned 'schwartzwelderkirshtort' terrorist attack.

      I don't look forward to EDS getting this contract.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    25. Re:Give up? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      not that I want to encourage rebelliousness, violent, or crazy rightwing concepts, but do you think civil wars involve the police or military?

      In most cases they absolutely do involve the police and the military siding with the faction that supports the government. There are of course cases where schisms exist within the police/military and they fragment in the same was as the general population.

      I'll give you a hint: smart police stay way the hell out of it as best they can (as they like to live/have families too). Even in Iraq you should note that as examples.

      Operative words being "as best they can." If someone on the opposing side decides to make them involved there's precious little they can do about it. And by "make them involved" I mean by either threatening them or by outright killing them. In the case of being threatened they can knuckle under or they can resist which may lead to being killed. In the case out outright being killed there's not much to be done about that other than hoping those who would seek to kill them are inept.

    26. Re:Give up? by wellingj · · Score: 1, Interesting

      This is the US. The 50 citizens who were previously considered 'cooks' will take careful aim with their semi-automatic weapons before the cops realize the violence they have instigated. It happened in 1776, I hope it doesn't happen in the US again, but it very well could.

      Don't worry... I'm probably already on the list. But you won't be, you displayed 'civility'

    27. Re:Give up? by wellingj · · Score: 1

      At least they weren't screwing the public, like most of the people in DC.

    28. Re:Give up? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Heh! That's assuming you would even get to see a "jury of your peers". So far it's been mainly trial by oubliette.

    29. Re:Give up? by Falconhell · · Score: 1

      "Easier example: taser guns can be fired at max, 3 times"

      Tell that to the guy who died in North Queensland after being tasered 28 times.

      http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/18/2601290.htm.

    30. Re:Give up? by c_forq · · Score: 1

      The big problem is I think they are smarter than that. They don't blindly arrest you just because the computer blipped your name, instead they put a spook on you and tap your phone. If they don't see anything in a few weeks it is noted and dropped. If you send a text that says "The wedding cake is ready" without them having anything about a wedding in the file and at least you and the recipient is arrested.

      --
      Computers allow humans to make mistakes at the fastest speeds known, with the possible exception of tequila and handguns
    31. Re:Give up? by ChiRaven · · Score: 1

      That's why John Gilmore has that picture on his home page with the question "I'm still free. What about YOU?"

    32. Re:Give up? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I disagree..

      You fail to recognize the fact that terrorists have a unlimited capacity to develop their efforts and cause harm to the United States. They, in their minds as martyrs, can easily go for the tactical hit - what we see in the middle east and in Iraq.

      But, the quick hit will most always be intercepted by our security efforts because of our developed intel techniques. Let us draw an analogy to the financial markets in this case. You can never beat the market (The United States in this analogy), but you can certainly game the market to your advantage in the short term. That is what the terrorists are doing.

      Case in point, terrorists can develop plans and processes that span years to develop and that is where our country still fails in it's efforts to protect us. 9/11 was one of those "projects" that terrorists "managed." The reality today is that in our country, all that needs to happen for a terrorist (or a group group of terrorists) to be successful is patience, lots of time, and lots of money and effort. We have done a great job of tracking down the money, but effort and time will unfortunately transcend that.

      There is still a lot of work to be done. And this fight is not even the bit least over.

    33. Re:Give up? by sgt_doom · · Score: 2, Informative

      From the effing article:

      "It's unclear how the FBI got the records."

      Geez, TIA has been in operation for some time now: all those gazillion government contractors supplying realtime data (from First Data to the clowns who operate the toll booth cameras to the Pay-for-view Viacom, etc., etc., etc.) with SAIC being the number one intel contractor, Mantech, etc., and who does the background checks for the federal government? Pearson Govt. Svcs. owned by Veritas Capital, the folks who used to own DynCorp, with the remainder done by XE (formerly Blackwater), and USIS (Carlyle Group).

    34. Re:Give up? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This only works if the people being victimized aren't already a marginalized minority without political power. Not a lot of Muslims in the Congress, I can't help but notice.

    35. Re:Give up? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      I would agree - except that, for no reason I can fathom, I was added to the no-fly list. Considering the nature of my work, I was probably a false positive (unless I'm doing some really cool stuff when I sleepwalk). Given sufficient data and algorithms to process it, you *will* have some percentage of false positives. At some point, there will be adverse consequences for those people. Knowing the creeping nature of this kind of capability, imagine the effects: getting pulled over more frequently because my license plate turns up as a potential terrorism suspect. How do you think the cops will treat me? Additional screening at the airport and other security inspection opportunities. Failure to obtain or maintain a security clearance - making it nearly impossible to hold a job in certain areas of the economy.

      Yes, this thing will crush itself under its own weight, eventually, just as the no-fly list finally did (that's how I got removed, when they finally went back through it). And at some point, perhaps, it will be refined into a data prediction tool requiring manual analysis of the results, the cost of which will be shocking. In the meanwhile it will ruin many lives.

      What's a good number for false positives on a detection algorithm? 1 in a million? That's 300 or so Americans, undeservedly suffering. What's a likely number, once you correct for the really important thing - no false negatives (actual terrorists who are undetected, which will result in the algorithm being changed to flag a detection more frequently)? Lots more than that - *lots* more. And as the detection set size grows, the number of people linked to those people grows as well, an exponential rise in the number of "persons of interest" screwed by the system.

      Those of you who have had to fight with an institution - a school, a large business, a government - know how hard it is to win that fight. A lot of innocent people will pay dearly for this.

    36. Re:Give up? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, I know, not like that civil war thing they lied to us about, the moon landing too.....I know the truth..I wear a tinfoil hat!!!

    37. Re:Give up? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I work for First Data at a fairly senior technical level in the First Data data center organization. I will tell you, quite assuredly, that we do not have programs where data is being shipped in a real time basis to the government, unless our customers (various card processing banks) are forwarding the data we manage for them on their own. Perhaps there is another route, but it is -not- over our network. All of our data connections over the net are managed to be point to point via firewall controls or private links.

    38. Re:Give up? by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Read the rest of this thread. I don't think just about anyone else gives them the credit that you do.

      Nor, for that matter, do I. Federal police and prosecutors have time and time and time again proven themselves to be some of the biggest bunglers ever to be employed by the public. Why should we expect that to suddenly change?

    39. Re:Give up? by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      As a way of bringing eventual revolution to a head, your way may work. But that is a different matter. I was referring to justice, today. :o)

    40. Re:Give up? by sumdumass · · Score: 1

      The public challenging them isn't the problem. It's the guys after their 72 virgins and THEY ARE NOT "THE PUBLIC".

      Someone should explain to those ass-clowns that the 72 virgins are perpetual virgins, meaning you can't fuck them. It will be like spending eternity with 72 twelve year old sisters. That's not paradise, it's a real hell.

    41. Re:Give up? by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      I don't think they prosecute on statistical evidence (yet), this thing just flags "interesting" relationships, it's just a fancy version of looking up all Sarah Conner's in the phone book.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    42. Re:Give up? by rtb61 · · Score: 1

      That really brings to mind the idea of data poisoning meets data mining, digitally creating the illusion of terror cells. Even if you did it by more primitive methods, say several people get together to create the illusion of a terror cell, by sending each other 'private' but, suggestive of terrorist acts communications (of course while fully documenting their non-terrorist intent), have they committed a crime when they are raided by government agencies or have the government agencies committed a crime of false prosecution and arrest and there was no intent.

      One could imagine the new 'er' non-terrorist tactic, of creating those situations where those are already targeted as a result of racial profiling get various government agencies wasting millions of dollars running around investigating people who in turn mock them ad follow up with enormous civil suit when those agencies get wildly carried away with their wedding cake hunts (if there ain't no bomb, then you have zero evidence, as the rest of it means squat without the bomb or 'all' of it's components).

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
    43. Re:Give up? by Bazer · · Score: 2, Insightful

      They do just that and they don't check if your qualified enough to issue such evidence. Peter Donnely gave an example in his TED Talk called "How stats fool juries". This projects result's will be no more relevant than the MIT's gaydar's but it has the backing of the FBI. You're going to have a hard time disproving it in court.

    44. Re:Give up? by Xest · · Score: 1

      Really?

      Britain defeated Argentina in armed combat in the Falklands despite being 3000 miles from home and outnumbered at least 10 to 1 both in the air and on land.

      So if one trained military force can defeat another trained military force at those odds, what makes you think a trained military force can't defeat an untrained civilian force at those odds?

      How do you think Nazi German managed to take as much territory as they did? They certainly didn't have enough native population to control the much larger population of the countries they held at odds as bad as or worse than those you cite.

    45. Re:Give up? by ciderVisor · · Score: 1

      If you send a text that says "The wedding cake is ready"

      Ahhh, but what if that was a lie ?

      --
      Squirrel!
    46. Re:Give up? by stonewallred · · Score: 1

      He was shocked 28 times, not shot 28 times. L2R and do a little research before posting your idiocy here...oh, wait, this is /. Proceed.

    47. Re:Give up? by stonewallred · · Score: 1

      They were very brutal and effective because at the slightest rebellion or resistance, they started killing large numbers of civilians. They also made it clear that if you fought, your family died. Makes it hard to get a fighting force to rise up. The vaunted French Resistance engaged in the same behavior many times, threatening people families in order to get people to fight against the nazis. Most sane people will not charge a machine gun, no matter what the numerical odds are. It only takes one bullet to kill you. For another example, prisons usually operate on a 30 to 1 ration of inmates to guards. The guards outside the perimeter fence could not shoot all the inmates if they hit the fence at the same time. The guards inside can not control the prisoners if they riot. But neither of these things happen very often. It really has to be bad before normal folks, even criminals, put their life on the line.

    48. Re:Give up? by moeinvt · · Score: 1

      The Federal government does a lot of things that I disapprove of, but they tend to project an aura of "incompetence" to mask what is a well thought out and deliberate policy of expansion of Federal power and destruction of individual liberties. If you look at what the government does under the assumption that they are "trying" to pursue an agenda that is in the best interests of the vast majority of U.S. citizens, words like "Idiotic" and "Insane" come to mind. Unfortunately, that conclusion is based on the false premise that they really "represent" their constituents. With a few exceptions, the Federal government is subservient to a politically well connected elite and pursues policies (wars, bailouts, regulatory negligence, selective law enforcement, patriot act...) which benefit that elite, and benefit themselves, to the detriment of the nation as a whole.

      The fundamental problem with "giving them as much data as they want" is that they don't have a need or desire to look through it ALL, thereby "choking" on it. They just need enough to make it look like they're doing "something" and can keep it on the shelf for later analysis whenever they need to single out some political dissidents for additional scrutiny.

      It's time to take a few thousand of these anti-terror warriors in Federal law enforcement and task them with investigating white collar crime, and government corruption.

    49. Re:Give up? by moeinvt · · Score: 1

      "...if one trained military force can defeat another trained military force at those odds, what makes you think a trained military force can't defeat an untrained civilian force at those odds?"

      Vietnam, Russians in Afghanistan, Israel in Lebanon, NATO in Afghanistan ... also because the civilian force doesn't wear uniforms and can blend in with the rest of the population.

      Not to mention the fact that most of the men and women in our military are people of character and honor, and unlike our elected officials, take their oaths seriously.

    50. Re:Give up? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Where does anyone or anything mention "shot"?

    51. Re:Give up? by Xest · · Score: 1

      Vietnam and Afghanistan aren't good examples as in both cases a trained military were involved. This is especially the case in Vietnam where the NVA had MiG 17s, 19s and 21s as well as tanks and such also.

      In Afghanistan the first time round with Russia, the Mujahideen had training from the US, support from Pakistan and so forth. The US supplied them with equipment and training like Stinger missiles. Similarly, in the current Afghan conflict the Taliban were still well equipped and well trained by the likes of Pakistan's ISI, coupled with training and equipment carried over from when the CIA was training and equipping them against the USSR.

      Guerilla tactics used by trained combatants does not make them civilians. Regardless though, even in the case of these examples, the likes of the US and the USSR could've continued to fight the battles so a determined military could still win, this is particularly the case if it was even more brutal in it's tactics- see Burma's military junta or North Korea for an example. If you starve the population and control the food sources, they will either join you or remain too weak to fight. At best, vs. a determined military, even if you outnumber them all you can be is a pain in the arse, or simply hope they weren't as determined as they first thought they were when they went in. Hiding amongst the civilian population wont help you much if the civilian population are at risk of starvation, or the death of their family members if they don't give you up.

    52. Re:Give up? by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Anybody ever read Stephen King's "Firestarter" (or whatever that book is called)?

      One of the single most frightening things King ever wrote about was "The Shop", which possessed both extraordinary power and extraordinary incompetence. Perfectly capable of torturing somebody to death because they screwed up and thought that person had information they needed.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    53. Re:Give up? by mounthood · · Score: 1

      The problem with so much data is false positives, and the abuse that results from them. ... And in a case like this -- where many magnitudes more people are innocent than guilty -- it gets that much worse. You will end up prosecuting (and possibly punishing) hundreds or thousands of innocent people for every guilty party you find.

      The War on Drugs has done this for decades. In the US, it's not a problem unless its personally affects you.

      --
      tomorrow who's gonna fuss
    54. Re:Give up? by mhajicek · · Score: 1

      Yup. I've always (well since a couple weeks after 9-11 anyway) thought that the hysteria that Bush and the media espoused caused way more damage than the actual incident. No disrespect to those lost, or their friends and families, but we as a nation need to learn how to take a punch standing up. What does it tell the world, if we're willing to put so much of our resources into "national security"? It tells them that we're a nation of cowards. What ever happened to the land of the free and home of the brave?

    55. Re:Give up? by AlphaBit · · Score: 0

      When we're talking about true rebellion, I doubt the government would continue to use tasers for very long. We are talking about treason here... Modern machine guns fire ~600 to over 900 rounds per minute with many hundreds of rounds to a belt. 500 angry people vs 4 army infantry soldiers would last 1 minute, with much of the death/injury resulting from trampling as people flee for their lives.

      If a tank is called in, there's no need to fight at all. The tank can just sit there.

      <Off Topic>
      I firmly believe in the right to bear arms for the purposes of overthrowing our government should the need arise. But lets be realistic, civilians with guns won't cut it against modern military superpowers. We need digital arms. We need the right to be online, we need the right assemble virtually, we need the right to protect our personal communications.

  3. Sounds familiar... by Captain+Centropyge · · Score: 2, Interesting
    --
    Bite my shiny metal ass!
  4. Wow, What a Shock... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    You didn't really think TIA was going away, did you?

    1. Re:Wow, What a Shock... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We have a problem here. It's likely that intelligence agencies do such work on "black" budgets and politicians can't do anything about it. In the name of national security and hopefully for not too much else.
      Why does fbi and such need to duplicate the effort, can't they just get tips from the agencies?
      I say these news of total surveillance is possibly meant to instill in ordinary citizens the fear they are being watched. Being afraid of the government is handy for the government, be it a dictatorship or a democracy.

    2. Re:Wow, What a Shock... by blackraven14250 · · Score: 4, Informative

      The FBI needs to duplicate the effort because of the culture of the FBI. They kinda have the mentality that they're at war with the other intelligence agencies, which keeps them from cooperating with nearly anyone. It's a holdover from Hoover's days.

    3. Re:Wow, What a Shock... by Concerned+Onlooker · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Actually, I'm thinking this isn't such a bad thing. When you have agencies competing like that it seems likely that they're also going to be keeping an eye on the other agencies, keeping them more honest in the process. When they all start cooperating I think I'll feel less safe, as a matter of fact.

      It's the same with the political parties. Just the right amount of non-cooperation and competitiveness keeps one organization from becoming the oligarchy it naturally wants to become.

      --
      http://www.rootstrikers.org/
    4. Re:Wow, What a Shock... by blackraven14250 · · Score: 1

      Oh, I feel safer this way too. I'm just answering the question of why it is this way.

    5. Re:Wow, What a Shock... by Arthur+Grumbine · · Score: 1

      Mi tio dijo que se iba.

      --
      Now that I think about it, I'm pretty sure everything I just said is completely wrong.
    6. Re:Wow, What a Shock... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Umm... I don't think competition works the way you think it works.

    7. Re:Wow, What a Shock... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually, the rather expensive reorg that is the Department of Homeland Security was supposed to end the rivalries. This sort of competition is ultimately bad for security agencies as they have to continually one-up the next guy. That and it's enormously wasteful.

    8. Re:Wow, What a Shock... by blackraven14250 · · Score: 1

      Wasteful of money, sure, I agree. But if none of them have access to all the information in a country, they really can't abuse all of that information.

      Also, on top of it, the 'one-upsmanship' is great for keeping them on their toes. They need to do better than the other guys, rather than ever fall into the "good enough" category. They should have to compete. What they shouldn't have is no one to give their high-risk-of-something-about-to-happen type of information to. They should have one guy that they all report to. Then, if that one guy hears about it from multiple sources, or it's significant enough of a threat, he knows how to step in and prevent a crisis, without actually being privy to everyone's private information at all times. The way it's set up, it essentially works out to a separation of powers within the intelligence community, since they can abuse their power so easily.

    9. Re:Wow, What a Shock... by dkleinsc · · Score: 1

      Nice in theory, not so much in practice.

      In practice, the "competitors" can form a tacit agreement to look the other way. Or, even more likely, they discover enough dirt on the other that mutually assured destruction assures that no one will tell on the other.

      --
      I am officially gone from /. Long live http://www.soylentnews.com/
    10. Re:Wow, What a Shock... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      When you have agencies competing like that it seems likely that they're also going to be keeping an eye on the other agencies, keeping them more honest in the process. When they all start cooperating I think I'll feel less safe, as a matter of fact.

      Um... no. Just no. In unity lies victory because no agency is constantly looking over the a "competing" agency's shoulder. Competition leads to information leaks many of the time. The focus should only be on defeating the criminals and terrorists -- not on beating each other. Sharing information is a good thing as far as those elements go. And not to be a jerk, but I believe that the consensus was that after the 9/11 that a major problem was the discord within the law enforcement and security community.

      Also, what makes you think we don't have an oligarchy now? The vast majority of governors, congressmen, judges and high level bureaucrats come from wealthy, powerful families and many have had political experience before. The differences in rhetoric between the parties are far larger than the differences in practices (though the healthcare thing has changed that up some).

    11. Re:Wow, What a Shock... by glitch23 · · Score: 1

      The FBI needs to duplicate the effort because of the culture of the FBI. They kinda have the mentality that they're at war with the other intelligence agencies, which keeps them from cooperating with nearly anyone. It's a holdover from Hoover's days.

      Don't be so quick to single out the FBI. Many of the intelligence agencies don't like sharing information. And in some cases they aren't allowed to do so depending on how policies and procedures are followed. I read the 9/11 Commission Report about a year ago and it stated that the CIA had information that would have been very useful to know regarding the 9/11 terrorists but it was inaccessible from the FBI's point of view because the people asking supposedly didn't have the need-to-know or some other nonsense. The agencies don't necessarily trust each other so with that mentality it is difficult to share information but they have to realize that they all have security clearances (probably top-secret clearance given it is information about national security), they essentially play for the same team and are trying to reach the same goal. Information sharing is getting better but the various intelligence agencies are all screwed up in that sense.

      --
      this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom. -- Lincoln, Gettysburg Address
  5. This just in . . . by Gabrill · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The federal government (especially those under the executive branch) will do whatever the hell they please, and scandals only force them to whitewash and restart unpopular programs under different names. /rant

    --
    Always going forward, 'cause we can't find reverse.
  6. Ssssssh! ACORN is giving tax advice to pimps! by GodfatherofSoul · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Ignore that silly bit of domestic surveillance you see over there. Look over here at this funny video of a white kid pretending to be a pimp and getting tax advice!

    --
    I swear to God...I swear to God! That is NOT how you treat your human!
    1. Re:Ssssssh! ACORN is giving tax advice to pimps! by timeOday · · Score: 0, Redundant

      Maybe somebody can explain the furor over Acorn to me. When a cop is found to be crooked, is there a big outcry to de-fund the police? Of course not. I remember a guy selling pot from the McDonald's drive-thru, but I don't remember any big movement to revoke McDonald's corporate license, either. So what is this really about?

    2. Re:Ssssssh! ACORN is giving tax advice to pimps! by HornWumpus · · Score: 1, Flamebait

      They are a crooked organization that barely skirted public outrage for decades. Always claiming "What a shame that a few bad apples have to spoil a good time for everyone by breaking the rules."

      This latest bit of assisted thievery is apparently enough. All the ballot stuffing, voter registration fraud etc etc has not been.

      I put it down to a powerful sound bite finally getting the job done.

      'bout time.

      In the long run nothing will change of course. New name etc.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    3. Re:Ssssssh! ACORN is giving tax advice to pimps! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The "pimp" wanted them to help import child sex slaves, so now it's a matter of THINK OF THE CHILDREN!

    4. Re:Ssssssh! ACORN is giving tax advice to pimps! by GodfatherofSoul · · Score: 1

      I don't think you know what you're talking about. Cite some ballot stuffing or registration fraud. You do know that ACORN checks the forms it submits and flags what they deem to be fraudulent right? Then, the city does it's own check. Every time you read a story about ACORN submitting bogus registration data, if you can get past the headline, you'll see that it's ACORN who is flagging the registrations and the workers turning them in.

      So, why do they turn them in at all? Because it's the LAW. They have to in order to prevent even the implication of registration screening.

      --
      I swear to God...I swear to God! That is NOT how you treat your human!
  7. Will it have the same ridiculous seal? by calmofthestorm · · Score: 1

    Someone has to feed the conspiracy theorists;) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_Awareness_Office

    --
    93rd rule of Slashdot: No matter how obvious my sarcasm is, my comment will be taken seriously by someone.
  8. Today, do something out of the ordinary by HalAtWork · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Do something out of the ordinary, once or twice a day. Deviate from your normal routine in very absurd and unusual ways for no apparent reason.

    1. Re:Today, do something out of the ordinary by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm not falling for your ploy to buy Vista!

    2. Re:Today, do something out of the ordinary by Red+Flayer · · Score: 1

      Yesterday I absurdly did not post on slashdot.

      Today, for no reason, I actually used most of my mod points (for no reason).

      Do those count?

      --
      "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
    3. Re:Today, do something out of the ordinary by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Should it involve a chicken, and a bowling ball?

      *No animals were hurt during this suggestion.

    4. Re:Today, do something out of the ordinary by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Such as?

      If I'm consistently deviating then I suspect the system will flag me as unclassifiable and subject me to more scrutiny. Your suggestion is good only if there is a lot of 'noise' in the system so that they cannot analyze every deviant.

      I think I will will stick to my normal routine like clockwork so they can classify me and ignore me.

    5. Re:Today, do something out of the ordinary by rcamans · · Score: 1

      Oh, Great. You want them to focus on me and arrest me, so they are not looking at you?

      --
      wake up and hold your nose
    6. Re:Today, do something out of the ordinary by lennier · · Score: 2, Funny

      "Deviate from your normal routine in very absurd and unusual ways for no apparent reason."

      But I do that every day already!

      --
      You are not a brain: http://books.google.com/books?id=2oV61CeDx-YC
    7. Re:Today, do something out of the ordinary by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's good advise for a healthy, interactive life. Not just for security reasons..

    8. Re:Today, do something out of the ordinary by blackraven14250 · · Score: 1

      Maybe have something done over an encrypted network that tells a random 1%-ish of people to deviate? That would be more than enough to keep them completely swamped (~3.3 million deviations a day), and keep the deviation from being easily accounted for (they won't know who will deviate each day).

    9. Re:Today, do something out of the ordinary by bertoelcon · · Score: 3, Interesting
      I actually did something like that on facebook by giving incorrect feedback on ads and becoming a "fan" of stuff I hate just to see how hard it was to screw up the recomendations.

      It is actually harder than you might think.

      --
      Anything can be found funny, from a certain point of view.
    10. Re:Today, do something out of the ordinary by HalAtWork · · Score: 1

      If they're going to arrest you for doing something out of the ordinary, don't you want to find out so you can either: a) get the hell out of here, or b) make an example out of it so more people pay attention to this absurdity?

    11. Re:Today, do something out of the ordinary by martas · · Score: 2, Interesting

      wouldn't help, unless you did something unusual regularly, i.e. usually did something unusual. for example, if a lot of people regularly acquired material necessary to build a bomb, created fake identities, got on a plane with said bomb and identity, and then didn't blow up the plane, now that would confuse them. your suggestion would just slightly increase noise in the data. hiding trends through noise is much harder than hiding trends through bias, i.e. things that look like threat in many ways, but aren't.

    12. Re:Today, do something out of the ordinary by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      if a lot of people regularly acquired material necessary to build a bomb,

      Do you have any idea how many materials in your house can be used to make a bomb? Like Works toilet bowl cleaner and aluminum foil?

      created fake identities

      Yes, Mr. Martas, if indeed that's your real name...

    13. Re:Today, do something out of the ordinary by martas · · Score: 1

      Actually, it is. no last name either. I'm like Pele. Not nearly as cool though - I make jokes on /., he's a football legend...

    14. Re:Today, do something out of the ordinary by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      Well, as far as slashdot goes, you and I are the exceptions.

    15. Re:Today, do something out of the ordinary by rcamans · · Score: 1

      No, I am going to keep my head down and not get arrested. NEVER volunteer. Once they have you, yu can not be sure when, or even if, you are going to get out of it. ever.

      --
      wake up and hold your nose
  9. Well they already have CIPAV by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2009/04/get-your-fbi-sp/

  10. Deeper Questions by solune · · Score: 1

    While i'm not too keen on this, I do have to ask: how is this different than Target teaming up with Citibank and Visa to track your habits and personalize your advertising exposure?

    Not that I'm happy with corporate tracking schemes, it seems to me as the accuracy of pattern matching increases, so does the value of commercially compiled databases to governments as an outright buy (rather than a govt DIY project).

    As Bob Gates has suggested, off the shelf parts can make for a cheaper option. As American culture gets increasingly digitized, so does the availability of information that can be abused.

    1. Re:Deeper Questions by Urza9814 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Target, Citibank, and Visa don't have the power to put me in prison for one....

    2. Re:Deeper Questions by RingDev · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Target, Citibank, and Visa won't lock you up in GITMO, bar your right of Habeas corpus, and let you rot for a decade because you went to Anarchy.com. But they will offer you 10% off of your next Molotov Cocktail purchase of more than $100!

      -Rick

      --
      "Most people in the U.S. wouldn't know they live in a tyrannical state if it walked up and grabbed their junk." - MyFirs
    3. Re:Deeper Questions by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

      Target, Citibank, and Visa don't have the power to put me in prison for one....

      If any of the above (or a few hundred other corporations) wanted you in prison, to prison you would go.

    4. Re:Deeper Questions by solune · · Score: 1

      The point I didn't make well, is that information is already out there, in fungible form. If the government doesn't make the database itself (porkalicious!), then it can always rent out the work to a business that does it already.

      I'm sure many people and companies can attest to their own little hell in dealing with identity theft and database breaches.

      Still, the real problem remains: people like to give out their information to make life easier, and by doing so, especially in our increasingly digitized world, make it easier and easier to profile them, and their inclinations. What's more, is this information can be used against them.

      Yes, I think TIA (or whatever it's called now) is powerful, scary, and on many levels creepy and plain stupid.

      It's not nearly as outright terrifyingly stupid as seeing apathy in such matters reign to such a degree, that people willingly give up personal responsibility so that they don't have to think about it.

    5. Re:Deeper Questions by jimicus · · Score: 1

      Target, Citibank, and Visa don't have the power to put me in prison for one....

      Erm, I hate to tell you this but yes. Yes they do.

      Well, Citibank and Visa certainly do. All they need to do is put through a false transaction on your credit card, insist their systems are foolproof and refuse to refund you. Continue complaining?

      Well, as far as the bank is concerned their systems are foolproof. Therefore, you definitely carried out the transaction. Therefore, you are trying to gain financially (ie. avoid paying) for something you did. Therefore, you are attempting to defraud the bank and they will report you to the police. It doesn't take much thought to see that without some very good legal representation, you're going to prison.

      (before you accuse me of being a conspiracy nut, something like this has already happened, though who was responsible for the original transaction I don't know - unfortunately googling for man arrested fraud tends to bring up hundreds of cases where real fraudsters have been arrested).

    6. Re:Deeper Questions by TheRaven64 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      This is the kind of view that makes me worry about the state of society. What kind of anarchist buys Molotov Cocktails?

      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
  11. so ? by Spaham · · Score: 1

    The question remains : does it deliver ? And how many false positives ? How many real positives *before* they act ?

    1. Re:so ? by cdrguru · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Sadly, we are never going to know the answers.

      I am sure there has been at least one nearly successful action in the US since 2001 that is utterly classified because it would tend to cause a panic - or a violent attack on people of a certain religious faith. So we aren't going to be informed, probably for the better.

      All we are going to hear about is a few misguided individuals that had maybe a 5% chance of pulling something off, if they were really lucky. And the American population just goes on thinking that (a) all this terrorist stuff is way overblown, and (b) our government is doing a really good job. Of course, neither of these is all that true.

      I suspect if the truth came out about one or maybe even two close calls people would utterly freak out. So in this case, secrecy protects us all.

    2. Re:so ? by beckett · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I am sure there has been at least one nearly successful action in the US since 2001 that is utterly classified because it would tend to cause a panic - or a violent attack on people of a certain religious faith. So we aren't going to be informed, probably for the better.

      This is using Pascal's Wager as an argument to continue black budget funding. There have been several thwarted attacks like the liquid bomb plot in the UK, and these haven't been causing full blown panic. Do you think there will ever be another shoebomber, or did the very public incapacitation of John Walker Lindh by concerned, untrained passengers suddenly furnish a very real deterrent on any future flight?

      I think that sunlight is the best disinfectant in this case. by showing the true nature of domestic attacks or terrorist actions, we can clearly demonstrate who is operating on the side of truth and humanity. It is best to lead by example, not cloaking everything under secrecy and privilege. If the real information is not available anywhere and we are just told to "obey authority", that's not so much secrecy as it's forcefeeding denial. Tell us what the real problems are, not to buy lots of duct tape and pray.

    3. Re:so ? by shadowofwind · · Score: 1, Insightful

      So in this case, secrecy protects us all.

      That same argument is also used to cover up an enormous amount of scary, incompetent, and/or fraudulent behavior by security agencies. From my experience in the government surveillance R&D business, when someone says 'If you knew what I knew, you would support program X', its very often bullshit.

      Of course much of what is secret does need to be secret. But often the main effect of secrecy is a lack of accountability. Personally I think we would be better off overall if we opened most of it up.

      People get all offended when someone suggests that the US government is a greater danger than terrorists, since the US government is relatively civilized, and terrorists do want to kill us. But we are so much more powerful than the terrorists are that I think it is us that's the greater threat. Personally, taking a long view, I'd rather risk losing a city to a terrorist nuke than risk a Stalinist catastrophe.

    4. Re:so ? by khallow · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Personally, taking a long view, I'd rather risk losing a city to a terrorist nuke than risk a Stalinist catastrophe.

      I absolutely agree. However, it's worth recognizing that if a US city got nuked, it'd make a Stalinist catastrophe far more likely as panicked citizens would almost be begging government to take away their rights and exploit them.

    5. Re:so ? by khallow · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I am sure there has been at least one nearly successful action in the US since 2001 that is utterly classified because it would tend to cause a panic - or a violent attack on people of a certain religious faith.

      Which religion? Democrats or Republicans? More seriously, I've heard this kind of argument before. If government actually had stopped a nearly successful action in the US, they'd advertise it 24/7 *unless* it reveals relevant government agencies as acting entirely incompetent in the case.

    6. Re:so ? by shadowofwind · · Score: 1

      Right, good point, that's an example of where a fringe or elitist policy prescription would have counterproductive consequences. But I still think the government classified information system is out of control. Unfortunately it's hard to show the need for reform since it's largely invisible.

      The patent system is a mess also, and it's also an invisible problem in the sense that it's partially beyond the technical comprehension of most people, but at least we can present data when we argue about it.

    7. Re:so ? by he-sk · · Score: 1

      Complete conjecture based on a very cynical outlook on people is marked Insightful.

      Go slashdot!

      --
      Free Manning, jail Obama.
    8. Re:so ? by TapeCutter · · Score: 2, Interesting

      "I am sure there has been at least one nearly successful action in the US since 2001 that is utterly classified because it would tend to cause a panic"

      Why would they hide panic inducing information while simultaneously filling the airwaves with panic inducing disinformation?

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    9. Re:so ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why do I care if people panic because of it? How can I make an informed decision on how to protect myself if my government hides it from me? Why should it hide it from me anyhow? It is MY government. This nonsense about "oh its ok that the government hides things from me cause some people might panic" is a load of crap. I would much rather a bunch of people panic a few times and get told the real truth. Stop giving elected officials a free pass to mislead and lie to you.

    10. Re:so ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You are correct - (speaking as anon, so FWIW) I only have direct knowledge of a few such instances, but have heard of more from others with similar access - yes, there have been a number of VERY near catches of incidents that would make the public very unhappy, primarily with people of a certain religious faith...

    11. Re:so ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I disagree. I think we'd be safer knowing when the really big stuff just misses. Then at least the government could rely on every citizen serving as a sensor.
      When you have so many programs digging up personal information of the people in an attempt to find a few sleeper cells, then you're more likely to see people believing that it's just a waste of time and that the security people are only doing it for the money. Any time a politician or agency head uses the buzzwords, everyone rolls their eyes, knowing that they just say that to keep the money flow going.

    12. Re:so ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wrong guy. Lindh was the American Taliban guy taken captive early in $DUMBASS_WAR. Richard Reid was the shoebomber http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoebomber

  12. Call This Number If You See A Terrorist: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The number is 1-800-ALQ-AEDA.

    Have they backtested the predictive system on the policies and actions of BushCo Inc.?

    Yours In Domodedovo,
    Philboyd Studge

  13. False Positives by codeAlDente · · Score: 2, Interesting

    And how much does it ruin your life if you come up as a false positive?

    --
    He once inserted random mutations into his code, just so he could have the experience of debugging.
  14. Americanism? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What's a Philly cab?

    1. Re:Americanism? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Philly is where the Declaration of Independence was signed. You know, the document that says:

      We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.

    2. Re:Americanism? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Philly = Philadelphia, largest city in the state of Pennsylvania. Philly factors very heavily into early American history, and is where a lot of the ideals of freedom that the US has traditionally held were first put to paper.

  15. A better solution by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

    A better solution: offer anybody who's a member of al Qaeda $10 million to knock it the fuck off.

    Judging from the CIA's released estimates of membership, we'd wind up a couple billion ahead at that rate. That's what I call a "free-market solution"!

    1. Re:A better solution by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      I'm not following you.

      We track the money, kill their entire families, take money back. I see that implied step and approve.

      But how do you count the bodies. Specifically the actual hajis vs the scamming 'get your free $10 million' internet 'tards.

      I'm all for it anyhow.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    2. Re:A better solution by russotto · · Score: 1

      A better solution: offer anybody who's a member of al Qaeda $10 million to knock it the fuck off.

      Judging from the CIA's released estimates of membership, we'd wind up a couple billion ahead at that rate. That's what I call a "free-market solution"!

      You're forgetting about supply and demand. Make that offer, and every Tom, Dick, and Muhammed will be setting up "Al Queda in Peoria" cells just to qualify for the $10 million.

    3. Re:A better solution by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      No kidding! I had a torn retina, and since I have a CrystaLens implant in that eye the laser couldn't quite reach all of the tear (which turned out to be on a major nerve), so he used cryotherapy (aptly named in a punny way) which involves a metel probe supercooled by liquid nitrogen held to the eye's sclera for a matter of minutes.

      If I'd been strapped to a chair at Gitmo I'd have confessed ato anything. Would I admit to being a terrorist for ten million bucks and immunity? You bet your wife's ass I would!

  16. Hah! by MikeRT · · Score: 1

    Among the 1.6 billion records in the National Security Analysis Center â" tens of thousands of travel records, including hotel and airline records.

    It'll look something like this...

  17. OK, but how well does it predict movie ratings? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Maybe the winning team(s) could predict terrorist activity.
    http://science.slashdot.org/story/09/09/21/2312245/BellKor-Wins-Netflix-1-Million-By-20-Minutes

  18. its a real shame by nurb432 · · Score: 1

    that for years many of us took for granted that we would always live in a free society and left a trail behind us. Now its too late.

    --
    ---- Booth was a patriot ----
  19. Giving it all to them by jc42 · · Score: 1

    You know what, after all these years in IT, I say... give 'em as much data as they want. They'll choke and drown on it.

    Nah; they'll just follow the model of the RIAA and other "business" firm that they love. Pretty soon we'll be reading about the FBI busting a terrorist ring - of 2nd graders in Hobunk. They'll have lots of "evidence" - the testimony of other 2nd graders in the school, including a couple that are FBI informants.

    They'll also be prosecuting grandmas, though in that case, there might be some real reasons that granny has joined a terrorist organization. Or is it a sewing circle? It's hard to tell the difference, y'know, especially inside a multi-terabyte database.

    --
    Those who do study history are doomed to stand helplessly by while everyone else repeats it.
  20. What about P2P? by wytcld · · Score: 1

    Last night the Vermont Attorney General spoke to a small group of good Democrats and me about his various ongoing efforts. He's the guy who was suing the phone companies a few years ago for cooperating with Bush on spying on us, so generally on the bright side of things. But he ended his talk by claiming that the same file sharing software his college-enrolled sons are likely using is also being used to spread "millions" of child porn images.

    I almost raised my hand to ask him if he was aware of the difference between public file sharing and the darknets, but it didn't seem wise to imply that I had any idea about such stuff to the state's chief law enforcement officer. He has this notion that he can force ISPs to stop file sharing, all in the name of stopping child porn distribution.

    Someone should probably tell people like him about how the international terrorists can also use P2P, right? Because if you're drawing up massive terror plans, you're going to be just as likely as a serious child sex abuser to put the evidence where anyone and everyone can find it, right?

    --
    "with their freedom lost all virtue lose" - Milton
    1. Re:What about P2P? by wes33 · · Score: 1

      "But he ended his talk by claiming that the same file sharing software his college-enrolled sons are likely using is also being used to spread "millions" of child porn images."

      well, that's true of the wires and optic cable his sons use too ... so what?

  21. You are sure? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Based on what exactly?

    But no, you're probably right. Best just let them do whatever they want. It's in all our interests. Or so they say. But I'm sure they're right.

  22. Brazil all over again... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Brazil all over again...

  23. Conspiracy Theory Anyone? by CodeBuster · · Score: 1

    it's already been used to scrutinize helicopter pilots and Philly cab drivers

    This sounds a lot like the plot of the movie Conspiracy Theory where Mel Gibson plays a paranoid cab driver who publishes a newsletter of various conspiracy theories jumbled together from random public sources (this was before the age of blogs) and is chased by personnel from a shadowy government agency in black SUVs and helicopters (ala the USSS).

    1. Re:Conspiracy Theory Anyone? by russotto · · Score: 4, Insightful

      This sounds a lot like the plot of the movie Conspiracy Theory where Mel Gibson plays a paranoid cab driver who publishes a newsletter of various conspiracy theories jumbled together from random public sources (this was before the age of blogs) and is chased by personnel from a shadowy government agency in black SUVs and helicopters (ala the USSS).

      The real shadowy agencies are much smarter than that. If someone finds a bit of the truth, they don't chase him down (which would tend to give him credibility), they leak that truth along with a bunch of obviously bogus and silly information just to discredit him.

      Not posting anonymously because They will know who I am anyway.

    2. Re:Conspiracy Theory Anyone? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How are your sisters Melanie and Marnie doing?

      signed,
      Shadow Government Agent #3311

    3. Re:Conspiracy Theory Anyone? by sincewhen · · Score: 2, Funny

      Yes, that's exactly how they do it.
      Also, I have evidence that aliens control McDonalds.
      And Obama is really a woman.

      --
      -- Braden's law of data: All data spends some of its lifetime in an excel spreadsheet.
    4. Re:Conspiracy Theory Anyone? by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      Yes, that's exactly how they do it.

      [citation needed]

      Also, I have evidence that aliens control McDonalds.

      If you do not live in the US then yes, McDonald's IS controlled by aliens. I saw a two headed alien just last week -- a pregnant woman from Mexico.

      And Obama is really a woman.

      Yes, Obama IS a woman.

  24. Obligatory.... by Sfing_ter · · Score: 1

    Obligatory Minority Report goes here...

    --
    A computer once beat me at chess, but it was no match for me at kick boxing. Emo Philips
  25. RAW by Ozlanthos · · Score: 3, Informative

    Although I am sure many have said it, for me the most memorable instance of it was by Robert Anton Wilson: "Government organizations never die, they simply change names".

    -Oz

  26. Sounds Like Vestigal AI To Me... by Xin+Jing · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I remember hearing a comment back after the 9/11 attacks that the FBI database couldn't be searched like Google provides it's search queries. From that standpoint of modernization and capability, I say cheers to the FBI for making such a rebound (smells like Carnivore) 8 years later. Interestingly, or rather unsurprisingly, "The FBI declined to comment on the program."

    Now on to the AI accusations.

    "That could change if the FBI gets it hands on the data sources on its 2008 wish list. That list includes airline manifests sent to the Department of Homeland Security, the national Social Security number database, and the Postal Serviceâ(TM)s change-of-address database. There are also 24 additional databases the FBI is seeking, but those names were blacked out in the released data."

    The results of such a query aren't too far off from that of a true prototype AI, which in it's operationally completed state would provide the best prediction bang for the buck there ever was in the history of mankind. And how best to employ that fledgling AI but in law enforcement pursuit of known terrorist criminals.

    Where were they, what did they do and where are they now?

  27. Johnnie Walker by BancBoy · · Score: 2, Funny

    This is using Pascal's Wager as an argument to continue black budget funding. There have been several thwarted attacks like the liquid bomb plot in the UK, and these haven't been causing full blown panic. Do you think there will ever be another shoebomber, or did the very public incapacitation of John Walker Lindh by concerned, untrained passengers suddenly furnish a very real deterrent on any future flight?

    John Walker Lindh was the "American Taliban," Richard Colvin Reid was the "Shoe Bomber."

    I prefer Johnnie Walker Gold, Green or Blue, personally...

    --
    [UID-HeinzIntel]
    1. Re:Johnnie Walker by beckett · · Score: 1

      shit i was reading from redacted fbi documents. Sorry John + Rich; you probably get that confusion in the Supermax all the time.

  28. Sleeper Cell? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Isn't the point of a Sleeper Cell to sleep (aka no communication)?

  29. Wasn't it FDR who said by mcgrew · · Score: 1

    "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself." Too bad today's politicians are so cowardly.

  30. i foresee by memnock · · Score: 1

    no one batting an eye except for /. commentators.

    and the ACLU.

  31. Hey! Conspiracy Theorists are right many times! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Most of the FBI's cases involve criminal conspiracy! (leaving aside the abuse of conspiracy laws or even the rare case where somebody is convicted of conspiring with themselves...)

    Conspiracy Theorists are not all paranoid nutcases. Not all religious people are nutcases. Not all politicians are crooks (just most US ones.)
    Just because some religious people think the world is going to end in 2012 (because 2000 didn't happen) or that Jesus is coming back in their lifetime or evolution and global warming is a scam... does not make the rest of them crazy nuts. A great number of them might have poor logic skills but not all of them.

    A great number of conspiracy theorists may seem to be paranoid; but I would say that its probably not as large as you are led to believe by the stereotypes. One has to look at what paranoid actually means and how common conspiracies are before one can start labeling those who look use that common pattern and decide they are paranoid.

    Any agreements / planning between politicians and lobbies to screw citizens is a conspiracy (many are legal too) and it is a huge problem its so commonplace. One could say conspiracy is the job of politicians (Why do think governments are designed to distribute power? The premise is that large conspiracies are harder to setup and maintain.)

    Conspiracy "nuts" have said:
    The healthcare industry is bribing our officials to stop reform (much more evident today.)
    In 1999/2000, Bush was going to start war in Iraq, some even predicted Afghanistan!
    Wiretapping of all Americans! (mostly proven; government attempted legal justification many times)
    Forced confessions to fabricate testimony
    Terror alerts exploited for political reasons
    Play stupid and incompetent because Americans are tolerate if not reward it... (aka a front man)
    JFK (I've never met someone from that era who fell for it; after the evidence was declassified in the 90s it became clear there was a fabricated cover up of something.)

  32. Frank Herbert on government assassins by handy_vandal · · Score: 1

    In one of Frank Herbert's novels -- I forget which, one of the lesser-known books, not the Dune series -- there's a character who is a government assassin, whose specialty is assassinating members of other government agencies. The assassin and the victims are on the same side, but the assassin's department is charged with keeping the other departments from becoming too organized and powerful.

    --
    -kgj
    1. Re:Frank Herbert on government assassins by Savantissimo · · Score: 1

      You are thinking of Jorj X. McKie, saboteur extraordinary (not usually an assassin)
      of the Bureau of Sabotage (motto: "In Lieu of Red Tape")
      in the ConSentiency universe stories:

      "A Matter of Traces" (short story) , 1958
      "The Tactful Saboteur" (short story), 1964
      Whipping Star (novel), 1970
      The Dosadi Experiment (novel), 1977

      --
      "Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery?" - Patrick Henry
    2. Re:Frank Herbert on government assassins by handy_vandal · · Score: 1

      You are thinking of Jorj X. McKie, saboteur extraordinary (not usually an assassin) of the Bureau of Sabotage (motto: "In Lieu of Red Tape") in the ConSentiency universe stories:

      "A Matter of Traces" (short story) , 1958 "The Tactful Saboteur" (short story), 1964 Whipping Star (novel), 1970 The Dosadi Experiment (novel), 1977

      Ah, yes! Thanks for the reference. (Someone mod parent +Informative.)

      --
      -kgj
  33. Datamining Doesn't Catch Bad Guys by jambarama · · Score: 1
    No statistician with a brain think you can predict criminality with the type of information the FBI is collecting. The National Academy of Sciences issued a report recently saying just that - datamining doesn't work in criminal contexts. From the report:

    Little is known about which patterns are linked to terrorism. As a result, programs that scan databases looking for any unusual patterns are apt to turn up far too many false leads to be useful, the report notes. No one should be arrested, searched, or have their rights denied simply because an automated data-mining program has identified them as suspicious.

    As if that wasn't enough, the National Research Council datamining report said the same thing. From the summary:

    Regarding data mining, the book concludes that although these methods have been useful in the private sector for spotting consumer fraud, they are less helpful for counterterrorism because so little is known about what patterns indicate terrorist activity. Regarding behavioral surveillance in a counterterrorist context, the book concludes that although research and development on certain aspects of this topic are warranted, there is no scientific consensus on whether these techniques are ready for operational use at all in counterterrorism.

    The FBI obviously has seen these studies and knows what they say. So I can't help but assume their real motivation isn't to catch terrorists. Whether they're doing it to get information to blackmail/defame political opponents, to look like they're trying to catch terrorists, or something else - I don't know. But they're not dumb and they know this doesn't work for its stated purposes.