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Road To Riches Doesn't Run Through the App Store
Etienne Steward writes "Turns out that while a few fortunes can be made with Apple, Steve Demeter made most of his money by buying Palm (of all companies) at $1.76 and selling at $12. Apparently, there aren't as many iPhone App millionaires as we would like to be believe. From the article: 'In almost a dozen interviews conducted by NEWSWEEK, Apple consultants and programmers jettison the idea that the App Store is a world of easy opportunity, or a fast track to quitting the rat race. Instead they describe an anxiety-wracked marketplace full of bewildering rules, long odds, and little sense of control over one's success or failure. "It's kind of a crapshoot," says Demeter, who spent the last two weekends partying in Las Vegas and New York. "I think we've reached a point where people are thinking I shouldn't quit my day job for this."'"
Perhaps if he wants to be successful, he shouldn't spend his weekends "partying in Las Vegas and New York" and instead spend it on development and marketing. I've heard a wacky rumor that can help.
Mr. Wizard... why is this place called the Cave of Hopelessness?
"I think we've reached a point where people are thinking I shouldn't quit my day job for this." - DUH!?
It's definitely not easy to even earn a little money on the App Store with just a good game, much less get rich. I am the developer of a game on the App Store and have not been paid a single cent from Apple yet. The game is highly polished and has great written reviews and even good reviews from professional sites. It's only $0.99 to $1.99 (depending on sales). We've had a few hundred sales since the beginning of the year. Apple only pays if you break $250 for each region, not for all regions combined, so they keep what little we've earned indefinitely unless we make more sales. I'm not going to whore the product out by mentioning it here; I just want to get the message out that this is what's up with the App Store to other potential developers. I logged over 500 hours developing that game and haven't received anything for it. So not only is it entirely possible you won't achieve success, but you might waste a lot of time and resources in the process. The process of getting any information from Apple was miserable, and they treat developers like shit. I used to have a lot of faith in Apple's good will and have been a long-time Mac head, but after this experience, I'll still buy Macs, but I will NEVER do any other kinds of business with them again.
It's like every potential customer is walking into the New York Public Library. What are the odds of them finding your book among all the books available? Every once and awhile you get lucky but barring advertising or some one reviewing your product the odds are damn slim.
And the lesson is, "just because you have a distribution network with the potential to reach millions of users, you'll still probably sell fuckall."
Welcome to the real world, iPhone devs.
is like running your own business. Shocking~
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
True. Most get-rich-quick schemes won't get you rich.
Just think about the economics of the thing. When there's some get-rich-quick bandwagon that everyone is jumping on, it's going to quickly turn into a highly competitive situation due to everyone jumping on the bandwagon, and opportunities will become limited. Or if it doesn't becomes competitive and opportunities don't become limited, that means your in the middle of an economic bubble. Sell what you can while the bubble is big, and you might not lose your shirt when it bursts.
Couldn't have the independent devs getting the top spots, now could they? That'd be embarrassing.
You make it sound like it's their fault that your excellent indie game isn't in the top 50. Why would anyone think that strong marketing isn't needed in a crowded marketplace?
Anyone who loves or hates any language, platform, or manufacturer, doesn't know what they're talking about.
So some idiot gets rich buying stock and we get the startling conclusion that it's not the app store that makes you rich.
Getting rich has always been a combination of sweat, luck and keeping your eyes open for an opportunity. Brilliant reporting, just brilliant.
Why bother
No more than Andrew Carnegie, or John Rockefeller. These weren't great or particularly cutthroat men, but instead lucky men. Thousands of people could have been in their places and done the same thing, and the same principle applies to most famous people throughout history. The problem is that we imagine there's some reason to it: that if we just think harder, network more, or spend a few more hours in the lab, we'll be successful too. That's bullshit. It's luck. (And increasingly these days, the luck of having been born into the correct socioeconomic stratum.) The best we can do is to pursue opportunities to the utmost when they do appear and make the most of the luck we get in life.
These weren't great or particularly cutthroat men, but instead lucky men. Thousands of people could have been in their places and done the same thing
I agree with that: out of millions of people, thousands could have done what they did. In other words, you need to be both lucky and good.
How to solve most of our problems: 1.Lots of nuclear plants. 2.Cure aging.
I wonder how Thomas Jefferson's slaves would feel about that.
"...but instead lucky men. Thousands of people could have been in their places and done the same thing..."
And thousands WERE in their place, and did not. How many people were in the homebrew computer scene at the time? How many dinked around and wrote their own versions of BASIC? How many started their own companies? How many succeeded? How many had the same exact background and opportunities... and did nothing?
Attributing such to "luck" translates into refusing to take responsibility for your own actions and your own choices. "It's not me, it's luck." "Joe got the promotion and not me, the lucky bastard." And so on, and so on.
Many people have been at the helm of Apple, and only one has driven it to success. Twice. Is that luck? Would just anyone have made the same choices? Would just anyone have had the same insights? Would just anyone have the same vision and commitment and drive?
"...if we just think harder, network more, or spend a few more hours in the lab, we'll be successful too. That's bullshit."
Really? Perhaps someone should have mentioned that to Edison? Who definitely made a success out of spending just a "few more hours in the lab".
"The best we can do is to pursue opportunities to the utmost when they do appear and make the most of the luck we get in life."
No, the best you can do is to create your own opportunities, and leave luck, chance, and the vagarities of fate out of the equation altogether.
But you're not capable of believing that, are you? So go home after work, why don't you? Go home and sit on the couch, or go down to the corner bar. Have a beer, and bitch and moan and complain about how "unlucky" you are. And definitely don't try to "do" anything about it. That's too hard, and with your luck, why bother?
Actually, you're half right. For you, it is luck, because in this case the prophecy is definitely self-fullfilling.
Any sect, cult, or religion will legislate its creed into law if it acquires the political power to do so.
How much money are you spending on advertising? How many hours have you spent promoting it? "Great written reviews and even good reviews from professional sites" help, but it takes a lot more make *any product* popular. That, or a chance mention by iTunes staff or Apple commercials.
It sounds to me that app developers are making the same exact mistake ecommerce stores are making: setting and forgetting. Apple has 85000+ apps - you need to do something to make it known to us, to the world.
Sheesh, you even fail to promote it in your rant... "I'm not going to whore the product out by mentioning it here" is EXACTLY the wrong attitude to have if your 500 development hours have any value. Whores make more money than bitches.
William Henry "Bill" Gates III "his father was a prominent lawyer, his mother served on the board of directors for First Interstate BancSystem and the United Way, and her father, J. W. Maxwell, was a national bank president."
He might not have had the money in a trust fund but there's someone who was born with a silver spoon in his mouth if ever I saw one.
If all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error.
So you're one of those guys who picks up myth-proving trash talk and passes it along as fact. Don't kid yourself into believing this doesn't deeply reflect the quality of your truth...it very likely does. It would have been so easy for you to have disproved this myth, and yet, that little bit of effort appears to exceed that which you are willing to expend in being correct.
Wait...could it be that you're one of those guys whose truth transcends fact?
Trash talk. Trash thought. Trash.
It is because Developers are afraid of Apple and as the only channel is "app store" for non hacked iPhones, Apple can make one's life real miserable if they want to.
Expect many AC developers talking real stuff but they have to stay anonymous. Hell, I even warned one friend to "stay low profile at least until app approved" myself.
Of course, if Application/Game can be released for Nokia touch phones at least which sells millions with some torture of Symbian C++, they would have some kind of power to show to Apple and they would be treated accordingly. That is the game&app developers fault. So, Nokia dev tools aren't classy/trendy as Apple... So what really? Ship it, if Handango/Ovi gets more share, put $5 price tag... Let user decide. At least Nokia won't say "You duplicated (coded better) my functionality". Look at the success stories like Opera Mini, IM clients, media players etc.
Certainly Bill Gates made the most of his opportunities and there was certainly a very large element of hard work and personal ambition there.
That said, if he'd been born a few years later or probably even a few years earlier, or done almost anything differently in his life he wouldn't have been there to have the opportunities he took advantage of. Hard work is definitely important. Being able to see your opportunities and take advantage of them is important. A certain degree of ruthlessness is also important, and you are very unlikely to succeed in any major way without them.
That said, the way to get rich beyond your wildest dreams is to be in the right place at the right time. All the hard work in the world will not get you there without that. It'll keep you from starving, it'll probably get you a decent living(if you're smart(not necessarily intelligent) enough to work hard at the right things. Bill Gates is Bill Gates because he was there when opportunity knocked and grabbed it with both hands.
And thousands WERE in their place, and did not. How many people were in the homebrew computer scene at the time? How many dinked around and wrote their own versions of BASIC? How many started their own companies? How many succeeded? How many had the same exact background and opportunities... and did nothing?
None. No two people have the same experiences and opportunities.
There are things beyond your control that have to fall into place for you to become wildly successful. That is what people call luck. Yeah hard work is usually also required, at least at the start.
Attributing such to "luck" translates into refusing to take responsibility for your own actions and your own choices. "It's not me, it's luck." "Joe got the promotion and not me, the lucky bastard." And so on, and so on.
It just may be that Joe has a quality or did something that you could not have. That's called being a realist, not refusing to take responsibility. Using such circumstances as an excuse not to make an effort to try make the most of the opportunities that come your way is refusing to take responsibility.
Many people have been at the helm of Apple, and only one has driven it to success. Twice. Is that luck?
No it's marketing.
Would just anyone have made the same choices? Would just anyone have had the same insights? Would just anyone have the same vision and commitment and drive?
Now you're just playing hero worshiper. If you think it was raw "vision and commitment and drive" with no fortunate circumstance that made Jobs rich you're living in a fantasy world.
Really? Perhaps someone should have mentioned that to Edison? Who definitely made a success out of spending just a "few more hours in the lab".
Lots of people spend all their lives working in a lab or at a computer and don't make it. It's not JUST the time and effort that got Edison anywhere. He had aptitude in a number of areas that most people don't.
But you're not capable of believing that, are you? So go home after work, why don't you? Go home and sit on the couch, or go down to the corner bar. Have a beer, and bitch and moan and complain about how "unlucky" you are. And definitely don't try to "do" anything about it. That's too hard, and with your luck, why bother?
Do you know anything at all about what the GP does in his spare time? Or indeed if he even has any? Do you have a family? Children? Spending all your time at work and neglecting them while persuing some foolish dream of fame and fortune isn't the way to go.
Actually, you're half right. For you, it is luck, because in this case the prophecy is definitely self-fullfilling.
When someone wants to insult you they call it "self-fulfilling prophecy". When they want to praise you they call it "foresight" or "being a realist"
You keep on telling yourself there's no such thing as luck. Keep working yourself into the ground doing things that aren't likely to make you rich or famous. It changes nothing. Certainly not your wealth.
These posts express my own personal views, not those of my employer