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Will Google and Android Kill Standalone GPS?
xchg passes along a WiseAndroid piece on the drop in value of Garmin and TomTom shares following Google's announcement yesterday of Google Maps Navigation. "Shares of GPS device makers Garmin and TomTom plummeted... through a combination of their quarterly results and the launch of Google Maps Navigation. Following both low guidance for Garmin's next quarter as well as poor results from TomTom, shares for the two fell 16.4 percent and 20.8 percent respectively and remained low through the entire trading day after news of Google's free, turn-by-turn mapping service became public." Today Lauren Weinstein posted a number of reasons why standalone GPS won't go away any time soon.
Some of us don't want or need cellphones.
They still make standalone mp3 players and pdas and cameras.
They still even make standalone cell phones.
For Android to kill GPS, they would have to offer it cheaper than a standalone and provide a working GPS function that did not require a cell phone service contract for it to work.
...when there is good, reliable, 3g coverage or better everywhere, and when data charges (especially when roaming abroad) are negligible. But frankly, the places I most need GPS are where coverage is poor and roaming charges are high.
It sounds like the maps will still only be hosted by Google, rather than stored on the device as with standalone GPSs. As long as that's the case, there will probably still be standalone units.
GPS is a free service. It's no wonder that it would become hard to make money off of it after awhile. At least Tom Tom and Garmin aren't crying for a bailout.
1) It doesn't work EVERYWHERE. I'm not talking about everywhere with a wireless signal. I'm talking about EVERYWHERE.
2) I'm not going to pay a monthly fee to use something. I paid Microsoft $X for Streets & Trips. It's one of the rare programs that I will spend the time to virtualize. It's gotten me east coast to west coast with only 1 problem, and that was user error (Grand Canyon Park is NOT the same as "Grand Canyon", the geographic center. Though it was an interesting drive into nothing).
3) AT&T is choking hard with a ton of people browsing the web. Imagine if everyone on the road suddenly was streaming a few K/s. It would bring the network to its knees. I somehow doubt that AT&T is going to pull through and upgrade.
Will Google and Android Kill Standalone GPS?
Will Google and Android and Verizon Kill Standalone GPS?
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I'll personally replace my outdoors-oriented Garmin when I can get a bicycle-mountable, rucksack-clippable, fully waterproof (i.e. submerge for a significant length of time, not just splashproof), robust and accurate GPS device. That doesn't cost more than I paid for the Garmin in the first place. And can run on AA batteries for long periods of time, so I can swap batteries when they run down.
In fact, I probably still won't replace my Garmin even if they match those features. If I'm trekking around outdoors with the thing, it's nice to know that losing or smashing it won't result in the loss of my phone, address book, PDA, MP3 and video player, camera ... I like the idea of having everything available in one device but for some applications it's nicer not to have all my eggs in one valuable (in monetary, information and functionality terms) device.
For stuff like car satnav devices I can see GPS-enabled phones making more of a dent, since the top of a car dashboard is a much friendlier environment for a phone. Moreover it's somewhere you'd probably want a phone anyhow, so you can use it handsfree, listen to music, etc. The really slick car satnav designs are integrated into the dash, though. Given we've already seen ipod docks built into cars, maybe in the future we're looking at a much more full-featured dock that'll connect the phone to audio, dash display, GPS antenna, etc. On the other hand, given computers are cheap and get cheaper, maybe that'll be unnecessary as the car will have bucketloads of integrated computers already.
Phones are relatively fragile, and their batteries are relatively feeble; by comparison my hiking GPS takes two easy-swapped AA's and gives 12-16 hours of use from them, and it takes all the abuse I can think to give it.
I wouldn't want to risk my phone-GPS running down my phone-phone: that's a safety fail just waiting to happen.
These arguments don't apply to driving GPS, where there's power available, or mooching-round-town GPS, where trips are short and safety non-critical. So smartphone GPS won't kill the dedicated device, but it'll reduce it back to a niche item for outdoorsy types.
If lots of people start using Google's free stuff, there'd be fewer people visiting: https://buy.garmin.com/shop/buymaps.do
And giving Garmin lots of $$$.
Garmin making an android device just shows that the Garmin bosses aren't in denial of what's going to happen to Garmin. It doesn't mean they have nothing to worry about.
Here's my problem with the android GPS, and for that matter with cell phone google maps - it all works perfectly when you live in a huge country, and where the possibility that you might need to use the navigation features offered by GPS without ever leaving the country is fairly large - hence you are not really worried about the data charges, since you are using the same operator.
BUT. If like me, you live in a small European country, where within the country there is practically no need for the GPS because you know most of the country by heart. Thus the only reason for using a car GPS navigation is when you leave the country. But that's exactly the moment the huge roaming data charges begin to apply. Therefore the only practically viable option unless you don't care how much you spend on your phone costs is by using an offline solution like a Tom-tom or Garmin device.
./R My blog
Maybe Garmin/TomTom will replace their current OS with Android. However, I don't see any outdoorsman/athlete tossing their Garmin device for a GPS enabled cell phone. Why? Garmin devices are purpose built, they can be strapped to my wrist, my arm, they are waterproof, I can easily mount it to the handlebars of my mountain/road bike, they have heart rate monitors built in, I can attach a secondary transponder to my dogs when they are out herding so I know where they are.
I also love the fact that they can download maps from the National Geographic Topographic Map Series. Now there's nothing that would stop someone from writing a android app to interface with these maps. But currently google maps doesn't help me out on the trail.
Garmin is a brand and people buy their products for the features, nobody buys Garmin b/c of the underlying OS.
I go hiking/camping nearly every-other weekend during the summer and even some in winter. Cell signals are poor to non-existent (when they do exist, it's never 3g) and I might have not have access to a power source for a couple days up to a week.
Good luck with finding a cell-phone that can fit that bill.
Gone!
In the same way that Walmart comes into a town and destroys local businesses, Google can enter into an industry/sector and destroy most of the competition overnight by giving an application away for free. Who is going to pay $100 for a Maps Application now (or more for a hardware device) when they can just download one for free.
Isn't this the same type of stuff we accused Microsoft of doing years ago? Yup, Walmart, I mean Google strikes again. Pray whatever industry you're in Google doesn't decide to suddenly release a free product.
uh huh.. like Apple has any interest in nautical or aviation GPS hardware, or any of the other dozens of things Garmin does besides tell you how to get to the nearest McDonalds.
No one is saying GPS units are obsolete. What this does say is that there will be a lot less margin in devices that are now one-trick ponies.
My wife can take our Garmin in her car if she needs it or I could let a friend borrow it; I'm not going to lend my phone to someone to use as a GPS. Sure, I'll find it useful to have a working GPS on my phone, for like most things (camera, gps) I'm gonna go with the dedicated device for when I really need quality.
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I utterly and completely agree with you - particularly in rural areas, GPS needing 3G or Edge connection isn't going to cut it.
But, this will impact sales. I don't know about TomTom, but my experience with Garmin is that it's routing is shit. I have several units and there are a ton of spots where it will consistently take you via a route that takes much longer, it wants to exit from the fast highway usually one exit too early in order to go the roads beridden with stop signs and lights, and in some cases, it would take nonsensical detours from an otherwise straight road as if Garmin wanted you in a sight-seeing tour of the countryside, doubling not only time of a short trip, but the distance. Garmin has some seriously fucked up routing that even a non-native with just a map would ever pick, and I ran into this in Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Washington State, and even in Europe. It's not a localized issue. I love my Garmins in areas I don't know, but that is about it.
OTOH, Google Maps has some of the best routing I have seen, consistently, and in my native areas which I know well, it takes the routes I usually would as well. So, with the limitations in mind, it's perfect for urban/suburban dwellers. I only wish Google would make a standale GPS unit with no internet connection required and cheap updates - I would snap it up in a heartbeat.
I seriously doubt that stand alone gps can truly ever be replaced... not for gps apps/solutions that rely on connectivity.
Perfect example: I recently finished a 6,000 mile road trip across Canada and back. Both my traveling companion and I had iPhones. We both turned off all data for the entire time we were in Canada... if we hadn't we'd have gotten multi-thousand dollar bills from Rogers Internet for data roaming. Think I'm kidding? last Canada road trip, my traveling companion didn't turn hers off. Got a call from AT&T halfway into the trip asking if she meant to be racking up $2000 in data roaming. Took us a couple days to get the pucker marks out of the passenger seat.
(okay, I kid about the pucker marks, but not about the bill or the call from AT&T).
Google Maps is great, but it relies on an active data connection... something you don't always have available whether due to low signal or STUPID high prices.
Stand-alone units don't have this problem.
The Digital Sorceress
I'm on my 4th mobile phone, since the 1980's. Mostly because of gaps here and there, because plans were expensive and I didn't really need a mobile too much.
Now I'm on Pre-Paid and love it. Per month cost is 5 to 10 bucks, which leaves a _lot_ of money for things like buying a GPSr which will work more reliably in most places my mobile phone can't even score 1 bar (like much of Uvas Road, near Morgan Hill, California, where I witnessed an accident, but couldn't make a mobile phone call - nobody could! This, not far outside Silicon Valley!)
For commuters in Chicago, Lost Angeles, New Yawk, Bahston, Houston, Atalanta, etc. I expect their mobile to do a fine job for them, but in the crags, hollers and gulches they will likely find themselves utterly lost ("Why does the arrow say I'm 500 ft off the road?" - because it's guessing, based upon rate of speed and direction, which doesn't work is mazes of twisty little passages - all alike.)
I'll stick with a mobile for mobile stuff and a GPSr for GPSr stuff.
A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
The most Annoying flaw in my cellphone GPS, (with which I've driven across the country) Is when I'm late to an appointment, I need to phone ahead, but can't because I'd lose navigation.
That said, real time traffic, and weather related road outages, along with reactive routing are necessary features for a congested metropolis.
The unconnected GPS is dead.