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Give Space a Chance, Says Phil Plait

The Bad Astronomer writes "A lot of pundits, scientists, and people who should know better are decrying the demise of NASA, saying that the President's budget cutting the Constellation program and the Ares rockets will sound the death knell of manned space exploration. This simply is not true. The budget will call for a new rocket design, and a lot of money will go toward private space companies, who may be able to launch people into orbit years ahead of Ares being ready anyway."

23 of 279 comments (clear)

  1. Yeah, orbit! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Weee! They'll be able to launch people into orbit years ahead of Ares! Because putting people into orbit is exactly why Ares was being built, since NASA can't do that with their current rockets.

    The private industry is decades away from what NASA can do today. It's at least a century away from what NASA could do 40 years ago. They're never going to get us into mars, because there's simply no profit in it. Government funding is the only way space exploration can go forward.

    1. Re:Yeah, orbit! by wizardforce · · Score: 4, Insightful

      They're never going to get us into mars, because there's simply no profit in it.

      Oh really? Because to me, Phobos and Deimos (Mars' moons) are little more than a few trillion tons of metal, ceramics, volatiles and a few million tons of precious metals sitting in a nice stable orbit over Mars. Just perfect to supply the Earth with some rare metals, the moon and LEO with volatiles and any space tourism around Mars. The view is fantastic and I'd bet there's people who would pay pretty big bucks to take a vacation to Martian orbit or even visit the surface. You woyuld have to have a profound lack of imagination to not see any "profit" in going to Mars and in space exploration in general. Resources, tourism, research etc. plenty of profit to be made, it's just a matter of building up the necessary technology and infrastructure.

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      Sigs are too short to say anything truly profound so read the above post instead.
    2. Re:Yeah, orbit! by Third+Position · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Indeed. Government funding is the only way manned space flight has proceeded for the last 50 or so years. I'm as big on the free market as anyone, but there are some things worth doing that are simply not profitable in economic terms. In fact, some of humanity's greatest achievements obviously weren't profitable. I doubt the pyramids ever provided the Egyptians with a profit. Well - at least not for several thousand years.

      Sure, private industry, say SpaceX, might be able to develop the technology. But who will be the customer? What company, with several billion dollars at it's disposal, has an incentive to go to the moon or Mars? What would the incentive be?

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      American Third Position
      Finally, a real choice!
    3. Re:Yeah, orbit! by icebike · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Seriously?
      I just can't see mining a trillion tons of anything to carry it back to earth being a good idea. And mining a moon seems fraught with peril, an generally a bad idea. For Christ sake if exhaling can destroy earth's environment, how could de-orbiting a trillion tons do the planet any good?

      The only way to gain the riches of mars is to live there. You can't bring it home.

       

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      Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
    4. Re:Yeah, orbit! by wizardforce · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The supply of space metals shipped to Earth can not lower the price of precious metals on Earth lower than what it costs to ship them no matter how abundant they are in space. Hence why even though there are quadrillions of tons of salt on Earth, the price isn't near zero due to the cost of transport and extraction.

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      Sigs are too short to say anything truly profound so read the above post instead.
    5. Re:Yeah, orbit! by Idiomatick · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I've thought for a long time that the US gov should pitch 100mil or so to the lunar X-prize, maybe 500mil to a martian prize. The prize system has shown that this method is highly efficient. Why not use it?

    6. Re:Yeah, orbit! by wizardforce · · Score: 3, Insightful

      and a practical way of transporting it to earth

      The price can never drop below the cost to maintain the rate of supply that is profitable. Never. It doesn't matter how much of x material there is. If it costs 500$/kg to extract, purify and transport it then the price must be at least 500$ over a period of time. If the price is set below that, the further ability to maintain the level of supply that results in that low price goes away which causes supply to drop and prices to rise to the point where it is again profitable to extract.

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      Sigs are too short to say anything truly profound so read the above post instead.
    7. Re:Yeah, orbit! by wizardforce · · Score: 3, Interesting

      The shuttle is the government's doing. SpaceX could do it for less than a million$ as it is. Even better considering that the price drops with time and when we start building structures in space for the purpose of space industry. Self sufficient colonies don't need to launch much from Earth. Mine the Gold and de-orbit it using a space tether and a flat, ablative, throw away heat shield.

      --
      Sigs are too short to say anything truly profound so read the above post instead.
    8. Re:Yeah, orbit! by FleaPlus · · Score: 3, Informative

      The private industry is decades away from what NASA can do today.

      This is a common meme, but unfortunately quite false. Private industry has been successfully designing and building new orbital rockets for years (Delta IV, Delta IV Heavy, Atlas V, Falcon 1, Pegasus, etc.). In contrast, NASA hasn't successfully designed a new orbital rocket in ~30 years, although they've had several severe management-related failures (X-33, X-34, NLS, etc.).

      Also, keep in mind that NASA already uses commercial rockets for all of its unmanned launches -- craft like the Spirit and Opportunity rovers weren't launched on NASA rockets, but on commercial Boeing Delta II Heavies.

      They're never going to get us into mars, because there's simply no profit in it.

      Which is precisely the reason the proposed plan is better. By letting private rockets handle the routine problem of accessing low-Earth orbit, NASA can use its limited funds to focus on actual exploration instead of rocket-building.

  2. Bravo. by RyuuzakiTetsuya · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I follow Phil via twitter, he's pretty spot on about space and space exploration. He even goes into the false dichotemy of funding social spending programs first then NASA in one of his posts. NASA research lead to cheaper, more viable foodstuffs for the poor in the past, I don't see why it's breakthroughs couldn't assist us in our search for solutions to problems here on Earth.

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    Non impediti ratione cogitationus.
    1. Re:Bravo. by icebike · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Phil is absolutely correct on this.

      NASA spending also makes jobs. Everything from top level engineers and administrators down to bag boys in the grocery stores.

      I wish people could get it thru their head that we are not launching stacks of 100 dollar bills into space. Every last red cent is spent here on earth.

      Why make the poor into hand-out wards of the State? I have never understood the so called (self called) "Progressive" parties propensity to enslave population thusly, and lose the first derivative of government spending.

      If NASA did nothing at all and delivered nothing at all but stacks of study after study it would STILL be better for society than handing out food stamps because there were no jobs.

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      Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
    2. Re:Bravo. by EzInKy · · Score: 5, Insightful


      Poverty is a social problem, not a technological one.

      Social problem: Famine
      Technological Solution: Irrigation
      Result: Civilization (Just ask Sid)

      Solving social problems with technology is what separates men from animals.

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      Time is what keeps everything from happening all at once.
    3. Re:Bravo. by ionix5891 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Social problem: Corrupt government

      Technological solution: transparent and open database of expenses (think UK mps expenses scandal) accessible by citizens

      Result: less corruption

      having your expenses published in papers and discussed by all have really been a kick in ass for politicians in UK

  3. Wishful thinking is bad science too by syousef · · Score: 5, Insightful

    What you need is for people to realise the benefits that come with space exploration so that they demand, through their votes, that it be included in the budget. What you don't need to do is give up on NASA in favour of private companies that can only ever be expected to be SELF serving. Capitalism as a tool is a good thing, but as a religion it is as stupid as any other religion.

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    These posts express my own personal views, not those of my employer
    1. Re:Wishful thinking is bad science too by Rei · · Score: 4, Interesting

      It amazes me how many people think that what we're dealing with is a choice between outsourcing to industry vs. having the government do it. That's not the case. It's a choice between outsourcing to "small" (relatively) companies vs. outsourcing to huge corporate giants (Lockheed, Boeing, etc), which they currently do. The former should give much better pricing and innovation, at the downside of greater risk.

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      Noone ever goes walrus!
    2. Re:Wishful thinking is bad science too by syousef · · Score: 3, Insightful

      It's not big corp vs small at all. It's a question of a lack of leadership. Businesses, and certainly small businesses are ill suited to leading when it comes to such long term goals. Outsourcing sub-tasks to them is fine. Outsourcing projects that could take decades is a recipe for corruption and failure.

      --
      These posts express my own personal views, not those of my employer
  4. Losing Constellation is a set back by physburn · · Score: 4, Informative
    Years of work have gone in Ares I,5 and the capsules. Yes is was just a bigger Apollo with more modern components, but if its cancelled and NASA have to restart then those years and dollars are gone, any moon or mars mission is setback at least 5 years. But as Phil said, these are just rumours, we don't yet know what will happen to NASA.

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    Space Craft Feed @ Feed Distiller

    1. Re:Losing Constellation is a set back by osu-neko · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Years of work have gone in Ares I,5 and the capsules. ... but if its cancelled and NASA have to restart then those years and dollars are gone

      You are suffering from the "sunk costs" fallacy. Those years and dollars are gone, not "if its cancelled", they're gone, period. The question is, what is the best way to proceed from where we are today. If the Ares program is not a good investment, then we shouldn't throw any more money at this. This is equally true whether we've spent nothing or spent a trillion dollars...

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      "Convictions are more dangerous enemies of truth than lies."
    2. Re:Losing Constellation is a set back by NNKK · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Try again. Wikipedia (optimistically) puts the current incremental cost of a Shuttle launch at about $60 million. There have been over 100 launches since Challenger. In other words, we have spent at least $6,000,000,000 -- six billion dollars -- on shuttle flights since NASA's incompetence was put on display for the world.

      In the last eight years with just a few hundred million in funding, SpaceX has developed vehicles now capable of launching payloads to LEO at roughly 2x the price of the Shuttle, and cost to a Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit is actually the same or _LOWER_ for the Falcon 9.

      Can you possibly imagine how cheap spaceflight would be if that six BILLION dollars had been poured into something other than NASA's horrifically broken bureaucracy for the last 24 years?

    3. Re:Losing Constellation is a set back by Rei · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The Shuttle was a great research program. We learned an awful lot. The problem was that we turned what should have been a first generation reusable pilot project into a workhorse.

      It might have been a suitable workhorse in some of its original incarnations. Might. But after the design compromises that led up to what we currently know as the shuttle, its chances for affordability were ruined.

      --
      Noone ever goes walrus!
  5. Time for a trust fund by BlueCoder · · Score: 3, Interesting

    We really need to get away from all this political BS.

    Let's just setup a multi trillion dollar trust fund over the next 20 years and be done with it. Then we won't have to support it with taxes anymore. I think we can afford to spend 20 years frugally developing space engineering. Let's work on getting garbage collectors and street cleaners in space before we start polluting the moon and mars.

    We spend how many billions of dollars putting the ISS into space and it's scheduled for a 2020 end of service...? How many billions do we spend on satellites only to have them come crashing back into the atmosphere? It costs way too much money sending all those pounds of metal up there only to waste it.
    We need to concentrate on manufacturing and recycling. We need more automation in space.

    We need plans to harvest asteroids and comets and put then into orbit around mars and Saturn for future manufacturing; I seriously doubt with all the asteroid doomsday movies that putting asteroids into earth orbit will get that much support. Mars is the scene of the next industrial revolution. The next wild west though it may take us a couple hundred years. And if you didn't realize it farming is destined for space. Power? You don't want a nuclear reactor next door? Guess where we can put it? It's all about real estate baby. Always has been and always will be and fortunately there is a quite a bit of it.

  6. Re:Meh. I don't like it one bit by Nyeerrmm · · Score: 3, Interesting

    You're under the impression that NASA is currently capable of creating an HLV using its old contracting methods. NASA has been incapable of creating a new launch vehicle since the shuttle, not at the fault of the dedicated civil servants, but by a paralyzing management and political structure.

    People and talent are mobile, and most of vehicle design in the past was done by private contractors anyway. Having NASA write you a paycheck doesn't make you more (or less) capable. What's going on here is simply a shift from cost-plus to fixed-price contracts. These are less subject to political manipulation, and push more management to distinct companies with their own structures -- if one company becomes paralyzed, it isn't a single point of failure for US human spaceflight.

    And yes, currently 'commercial space' vehicles concentrate on simple LEO transport, because this is the largest, most guaranteed market. However, if NASA needs to buy an HLV, there's no reason that one can't be provided by similar methods. A less risky (and less efficient) cost-plus development contract may be necessary occasionally, but if everyone is used to fixed-price approaches, and there's an understanding that eventual acquisition of more vehicles will be at a fixed-price then the same improved efficiencies will hopefully dominate.

    NASA doesn't need to design its own launch vehicles -- it needs to define requirements. If it needs something it buys it, and if it can't it can fund development, same as it always has, with modified expectations.

  7. We know. by tjstork · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I think international competition is more likely to drive space exploration than all of us holding hands and doing it together.

    Those of us who are in the right wing and have no problem shoveling money into NASA see this coming from a mile away. Keeping the USA in the forefront in space is more important than the development of the lateen sail was to the arabs or the silk worm was to the Chinese. It's absolutely, strategically, important.

    In fact, I would say that you could the cut the US military budget in half, spend the balance on developing heavy lift boosters, exploring asteroids, getting serious about the whole thing, and get way more out of your taxpayer dollar in terms of geopolitical power than 6 aircraft carriers and 1000 fighters.

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