Why Microsoft Can't Afford To Let Novell Die
geek4 sends in an analysis indicating that Microsoft may have the most to lose if hedge-fund operator Elliot buys Novell. (The eWeekEurope piece is based on a longer and geekier writeup by Andy Updegrove on how the mechanics of unsolicited tender offers can play out in the tech world.) To avoid meltdown or asset-stripping, Novell can try and find a preferred bidder — a company with some interest in running Novell as a business, and preferrably a tech company. Or another company may make a move independently. But who might that be? A couple of analysts have suggested IBM, Oracle, or SAP. These all have problems... Microsoft is in a similar category, with one added problem. ... Microsoft has staked any open source credibility that it has on Novell's SUSE distribution. If Novell falls to bits, then Microsoft's efforts to gain open source cred pretty much disappear with it. It's something that would have been impossible to imagine a few years back, but if we're looking for someone to prop Novell up, Microsoft would now be a prime candidate."
Once you start with MS your paths close up until the only remaining one is: they own you. Maybe if Novell had stayed away from Microsoft they'd be doing better now. Red Hat is doing really very well.
Bruce Perens.
I didn't know that Microsoft was trying to gain open source credibility. Last I checked, they were the kings of proprietary software.
Buying ity won't necessarily get Microsoft any cred. However, they can *earn* it.
C|N>K
While Linux supporters have been off writing yet another "To 10 Reasons Why Linux Is Better Than Windoze" blogs or making BSOD jokes in online forums Microsoft has been working their way into every part of Ubuntu through proxies.
Microsoft is perfectly happy to leave Novell's rotting corpse on the trash heap of computing. It served its purpose of getting the message out to the commercial world that Linux is a Patent Minefield.
Microsoft loses credibility by letting the owner of it's chosen open source project die? Ummmm... It's an open source product. They just put a copy of it on their web site and they're covered.
dnuof eruc rof aixelsid
Why would MS even care?
In fact if Novell fails, along with what recently happened with MySQL and Open Solaris, MS can brag about how proprietary software is the way to go.
Call my cynical, but any inroads into open source software by MS have been either because they had to, or because they had a direct benefit from the public image attained by playing nice with open source software.
At the end of the day, the fact remains. MS would like everyone to use their proprietary software. MS would like everyone to forget about open source.
The only way this will ever change is if open source becomes more profitable to them than proprietary software.
Then MS would transform into the #1 proponent of open source.
Think of the shareholders!
Trying to pretend this is some giant strategic cat-fight is a waste of time. I can only assume the author of the article is trying to gin up his importance and earn a few thou in consulting fees.
The big companies have already figured out that Linux works just fine in datacenters. Most managers don't know or care if they are running Redhat, Ubuntu, Suse, or a home-roll. They do know that Linux isn't going to vanish just cos some random firm gets bought out.
When Novell sold out to Microsoft you had open source kooks falling all over each other to proclaim that they would go right on using Novell products and projects so they could brag about how 'open minded' they were to the rest of the world(who didn't give a shit one way or another).
You have to imagine the execs up in Redmond were just shaking their heads in disgust that they had disrupted the open source/Linux world with so little effort.
I don't think Microsoft is really actively wasting time with Ubuntu. They don't have to. Linux marketshare is going nowhere outside of statistical blips. They have Miguel de Icaza doing so much damage to desktop Linux adoption and application development with the Gnome/KDE split and the Mono fiasco that they surely must be entirely focused on Google and Apple(commercial companies run by grownups and staffed by competent people who put in 40+ hour a week work on the unglamorous work that goes into creating polished consumer ready software).
Novell still has the copyrights to Unix.
If Microsoft were to buy them we could see a re-run of IBM vs. SCO, with Microsoft playing SCO but, having learned from SCO where the land mines are and having the REAL copyright ownership, going after any places where they might win and winning. They might be able to collect a "Microsoft Tax" on any remaining Unix vendors that are still running under ongoing licenses. They might find places where other vendors weren't covered by previous licenses. They might find some code leakage from Unix to open source projects and go after them, beating them into submission or bankruptcy, maybe winning on the merits, maybe winning by just having big pockets while open-sourcerers live on a shoestring. This could be a disaster for IBM, open source, any remaining proprietary Unix vendors, etc.
If IBM buys Novell they are protected from this sort of attack on their current business model from now on. They have the option of releasing the Unix code base under open-source licenses. I could go on.
IBM has the bux, the incentive, and the smarts. So I'm not just hoping, but betting, on them.
Bantam Dominique roosters crow a four-note song. Once you've heard it as "Happy BIRTHday" you can't NOT hear it that way
http://www.bbspot.com/news/2000/4/MS_Buys_Evil.html
Upcoming Windows 8 Ultimate Server will feature an OpenSuse virtual engine!!!
Competing distribution of Linux will be quietly forced into an acquisition by Elliot...
Apple has a fully licensed MS Exchange client on 50 million or so iphones and ipods
Snow Leapard has a fully licensed MS Exchange 2007 client
MS Office for Mac will have Outlook in the next version
Rumors are Bing is going to displace Google as the default search engine on the iphone
Apple is big in Open Source since OS X is based on some version of BSD. FreeBSD I think
Microsoft doesn't seem to want to compete in the mobile space or with MP3 players. the Zune was a total waste of great hardware
Apple doesn't seem to want to compete in the Enterprise Software market where MS likes to be these days
And Google with their vision of the cloud is the common enemy to Apple and Microsoft's fat client strategy
In news just to hand, it seems that Microsoft might have ever had any open source credibility whatsoever.
"Oh yeah, Microsoft are totally all over that open source shit," according to Richard M Stallman, the open source movement's supreme leader by virtue of prime beardiness and epic ninja skills. "If they let Novell die, then I'll have no choice but to see them as money-grubbing organisation who simply try to wring every last cent from their customers, rather than the benevolent and inspiring open source leaders that they are today."
Mr Stallman was later spotted sharpening his katana.
Stay tuned for more updates, unfounded speculation and general craziness masquerading as 'analysis' as it comes to hand.
Microsoft did the same thing with Apple in the '90s. They bought a huge stake in Apple, right when they were sinking down the toilet and then proclaimed that they were not a monopoly. Having competition - even propped up competition - is better for business.
If Microsoft were the only kid on the block then you know the government is going to be looking closer at them.
No suprise, either, that Novell is going down the tubes. I've been hearing about them for several years in the data center. However, I can see how tech managers don't have a compelling reason to switch from Microsoft to SLES. I personally would run SLES over Win 2008 but can see how many are afraid. (Disclaimer: I ran openSUSE for several years on my laptop and since switched to Ubuntu for all desktops since I didn't feel Novell had the mindshare needed.)
The Kai's Semi-Updated Website Thingy
Instead of buying a distribution, how about hiring some of the coders and providing them with specs to get your money-making products ported to ALL Linux distributions?
Then pay bounties for improvements you need/want in other areas of Linux.
Your company and products end up distribution-agnostic and you have lots of good will from paying the coders who are furthering Linux. And you can do it for a LOT less than the price of buying a whole distribution.
SCO lost because Novel owns Unix, the utilities, posix, and how it operates.
I am afraid of someone like Microsoft buying Unix only to cease and desist any Unix like product that looks similar. What better way to get back at Oracle and kill Linux then to own the unix standard?
http://saveie6.com/
IBM is in an interesting situation. They've avoided distributing Linux like the plague, yet they invest a lot of development into it. They base a lot of firmware and utilities around Novell-sourced linux, but simultaneously make every effort to not make that obvious. Novell I don't think is that appealing in and of itself, but IBM would be left having to rework their linux sourcing strategy, which is not a technical difficulty (switch to RH or just live without SuSE maintaining the codebase), but their lawyers may make it highly difficult to continue without significant impact. Owning Novell would also put them in an awkward position relative to frequent partners RH and MS.
SAP, I can't comment on. I could see it in theory, but practically speaking the partnership I've seen with SuSE is probably not worth the price of the company compared to the price of just jumping to RH.
Oracle I seriously doubt. They have Solaris and a RHEL derivative already in terms of platform. Maybe they can get some credibility in broader enterprise directory or systems management, but it seems to be stretching it and I just don't see it.
MS I don't see as giving a rat's ass. In terms of the legal circumstance MS wanted to project in the world about linux, that pretty much was over with the moment RH called their bluff and didn't get sued. I think they tried to grandstand a little around the MS-Novell partnership to make the best out of the situation, but it comes off as a salvage operation of a move that didn't pan out rather than a strategic investment to preserve.
If Novell/SuSE is on the verge of dying out, I don't see any companies investing any money in salvaging. The companies that want to be a distributor of linux already do. The ones that don't would be better off with a rebuild of RHEL or Ubuntu. A company thinking they could make a better run of making something of SuSE's assets than Novell is deluding themselves.
Microsoft has staked any open source credibility that it has on Novell's SUSE distribution.
I hate to break it to the author of TFA, but Microsoft does not have, never had, and never will have "any open source credibility". I'm sure there are people dumb enough to think that the Microsoft-Novell deal had any beneficial effects whatsoever for FOSS, but none of those people matter because they already bankrupted themselves in a series of repeat sales of the Brooklyn fucking Bridge.
Have we really reached the point where someone can wave around a huge wad of cash and say that night is day and everyone just nods and smiles? Even people who aren't getting any of the cash? Really?
Proud member of the Weirdo-American community.
I still prefer their file/directory rights system. And eDirectory was decent. And GroupWise was decent.
Nothing Novell does is special or cost effective any more. Groupwise? Still sucks on the web and on mobile and feels like desktop email from 2000. Netware? Plenty of competition there. Suse? The lizard's cute but can't beat RedHat/CentOS in farms or Ubuntu and others at home. Mono? Regardless of your opinion about dotNET, the sure thing is Mono will always lag behind latest MSFT version and never gain significant production and commercialization. The closer they get with Microsoft, the easier it is for shops that used to run both Novell and MSFT to drop the extra Novell piece and just go with all MSFT. Same old story.
People really think Microsoft gives a flying fuck about its open source cred when their entire product line is bolted away?
...I predicted just days after Novell signed their patent deal with MS that Novell would eventually follow a similar path as Caldera/SCO.
But I don't want to be proven right.
For enterprise level systems (think SAN storage), the two major distributions that are supported are RHEL and SLES. At least in the IBM Storage Systems arena, those (along with Windows, AIX and z/OS) are the only platforms that are officially supported. Novell would be insane to forgo that market.
And ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free.
John 8:32(King James Version)
Novell was never an open source enterprise and then they bought SuSE. Another company that used proprietary software in its business strategy. Now under the direction of Novell SuSE did go open source and allot changed so I will give them some benefit of the doubt... but they also teamed up with Microsoft. I think you have to wonder if they have a firm grasp of how to get where they are going. While it was unclear at times where Redhat was going (desktop, server, etc) it was never unclear that they were an open source operation. Redhat never aligned themselves with the devil. It might be one thing to include proprietary drivers and I might even argue license technology from Microsoft under certain circumstances- but what Novell did has really stretched it. Despite all of this I wouldn't completely cross Novell off the list of companies I'd do business with. The problem for Novell is that Redhat has comparable products and services. I have no reason to choose Novell over Redhat and Redhat is a purely open source company that doesn't align itself with my enemy. So why would I choose to support a company that aligns itself with my enemy?
Right now my company is a start-up and we're not yet at a point where we need to contract with a major distributor for support. So we don't need the services of Redhat, Novell, or Canonical. When we do I'll definitely choose Canonical, Redhat, and then Novell in that order and we're already prepared to transition to distributions and get support from companies in that order for the reasons above. Canonical supports GNU/Linux users- on the desktop- they go above and beyond the call of duty, then Redhat- they support open source unquestionably, and finally Novell, they exist, they put out open source software, but they don't always make the best business decisions from an ethical perspective.
The problem for Novell is that third place means you loose out on allot of money. Novell could be the Microsoft of the GNU/Linux world. They aren't though all because of the decisions they've made. I think allot of that has to do with the fact they've failed to retain their old customers during transition to the new GNU/Linux product line and certain hire-ups didn't get that aligning themselves with Microsoft was going to undo the "good-will" (even if it was purely selfishly motivated reasons rather than for principle) initiatives (opening up SuSE and other non-free GNU/Linux software).
I hate to see Novell die (I was a CNA way back in the day, and learned NetWare 3.x in high school), but I think it'd be for the best interest of FOSS due to their taintedness with Microsoft.
Here's what I think should occur:
RedHat should set up a third-party company that they own. That company should buy Novell. That company should sell all non-tainted assets to RedHat.
Then what is left are the tainted bits the third-party is holding. Let it just die or shut down or whatever it is that you can do with a corporation to put it out of its misery.
Novell was under systemic attack by Microsoft for decades. It worked, too.
When Novell is gone, Microsoft's only real competitors left in the corporate data center will be Red Hat and Solaris. Those people currently running SuSE will migrate to Red Hat, making them a bigger target for MS. Solaris is still there, but seems to be floundering a bit under Oracle. So one is a rising star, and the other, not. (I say that, but I don't know. OpenSolaris may be way more popular than I think).
Luckily for Red Hat, Microsoft is more worried about Google and the cloud at the moment. But that can easily change, if Microsoft has a few extra-lean quarters. Particularly if it is found that some large portions of the cloud run Red Hat.
The other lucky thing for Red Hat is that the hard-charging leader of Microsoft is gone, and the resultant internal squabbling keeps the MS VPs distracted. But that too can easily change, if Microsoft has a few extra-lean quarters. Taking it to extremes... if Bill Gates gets bored with the charity thing and comes back to 'rescue' Microsoft, I'd take short-sell positions on Red Hat.
"The most sensible request of government we make is not, "Do something!" But "Quit it!"
Agreed. Novell has been disfunctional since Netware version 3, in my opinion.
"It bought Wordperfect about the time it tanked, then couldn't make a go of it."
Novell buying WordPerfect for $885 million was an amazing decision. What amazed me most was that apparently Novell top managers apparently had no serious intention of being in the business of selling word processing software.
In 1996, 2 years later, Novell sold WordPerfect to Corel.
That "investment" of $150Mill worth of non-voting shares was cashed in at a good profit a few years later.
Apple had a cash heap of over $15Billion at the time and no debt. The $150Mill was simply a confidence move.
If anybody did well out of it it was Microsoft. They got to keep using the Quicktime code they were illegally using in Windows and Apple's promise to keep putting IE for Mac as the preferred browser. In return Microsoft promised to keep pumping out MS Office for the Mac for several more years. That latter agreement has long ago expired but MS Office is going as strong as ever.
...considering that the SCO v. Novell trial is just around the corner.
You might ponder why Novell would associate itself with Microsoft--a business of the kind Novell most think would be best to stay far away from. I think that in this case we've seen the story play out in the automotive industry. Perhaps Novel should've heeded the lesson.
Novell is like Chrysler. At one time, not so long ago, both companies were "second bananas" in their respective industries that despite past troubles and having to face major crossroads were showing promise and were prosperous and improving...
Novell: it was direction-less and fighting a losing battle with Microsoft. The flagship products like Netware and the stepchildren it acquired like WordPerfect were starting to look antiquated and were losing market share to WinNT and MSOffice. Then at some point they remade themselves. They embraced open source and did a stellar job acquiring SuSE and Ximian in the face of doubters to building a sustainable, quality business around their Free software and though they've never achieved #1 spot over Red Hat they became a very respectable part of the "big three" Linux-based OSes.
Chrysler: it was direction-less and fighting a losing battle with imports from Asia and Europe. When OPEC was closing the taps and drivers had to hunt for pumps that hadn't run dry and cute, little round imports like the Beetle and the Civic and the Corolla were taking America by storm...and there was Chrysler building big, thirsty, stodgy boxy road boats. Finally facing the prospect of bankruptcy and pleading for a government bailout (the first time) they were forced to face reality. Iaccoca came in as chairman and embraced an whole new set of smaller more efficient front-wheel-drive platforms resulting in early successes like the Aries and Caravan. Chrysler did a stellar job in acquiring AMC from Renault and making the Jeep brand part of a sustainable, increasingly quality business that though far from #1 was a leader in design and once again a respectable part of the "big three" American-based automotive companies.
---
Novell: at the peak of its game it started to lose momentum again and though still in a very good financial condition felt the pressure to shake things up again and find a new growth strategy. This time, however they lost sight of their customers and the culture of the company. Someone who clearly didn't "get it" decided Novell should associate themselves with Microsoft. The flawed logic was that as the IP trolls gained prevalence and MS seemed here to stay for eternity that Novell would be the "safe harbour" from litigation and the Linux you could go with for superior interoperability with Windows infrastructure. But the cultures of the two partners could never mix and Linux customers were about OPEN systems and were offended that Novell would poison that openness just to get some cash and potentially check off some boxes on "the facts" list. Furthermore, for all the bad will the deal generated that hurt Novell's business Microsoft did nothing to promote the use of Linux amongst those that received its "SuSE Certificates". In the end MSFT did more to damage Novell than to nurture it.
Chrysler: They finally had more products that scored above average than below in performance and reliability, and it was the "cab forward" era when the cars were sleek, roomy and comfortable without being big lumbering boats. However they were hitting a plateau and needed investment to keep relevant and growing. Against common wisdom they chose to get with Daimler--a company that serves a completely different market segment, were known for quality but rather stodgy designs based in a country with a much more button-down way of doing business. Mopar fans' reactions were rarely favourable to the idea and nobody seriously thought Daimler REALLY thought of Chrysler as an "equal partner". Instead of getting the best of both worlds we got the worst--Chrysler's level of quality and MB's design influences! As the "cab forward" era ended MB did NOTHING to help Chrysler and in fact starved it
I saw that things are picking up in the SCO v.s. Novell lawsuit, and according to Groklaw SCO is in a pretty bad position with Novell owning the UNIX copyrights. Asset stripping sounds suspiciously convenient, especially if somebody wants those pesky copyrights out of the way.
Apple had a cash heap of over $15Billion at the time and no debt.
Seems you are off by at least an order of magnitude.
http://news.cnet.com/2100-1001-202143.html
I doubt that Apple was debt free either, I'm just too lazy to google it.
When information is power, privacy is freedom.
Is there any relation between Novel's problems and Novel's "friendship" with Microsoft?
Something like ... maybe ... "Novel is loosing customers because they are friendly towards Microsoft"?
hany
There is one problem with assumption that Microsoft will prop up Novell. The problem is Microsoft itself. They are not in the business for the "cred", they are there for the money.
And as business sense goes, the company that actually has any business interest in keeping SuSE alive is IBM. Last time I checked, SLES11 was the Linux that came from a non-competing company. RedHat does run on IBM's platforms, but face it, RedHat's JBoss is a competitor to IBM's WebSphere stuff.
If you are supporting Microsoft's assimilation of open source, your days are numbered, Mr SUSE. Take note any other company that is thinking of offering similar support, you will surely suffer a similar fate, mainly due to Mafiasoft's lack of care and destroying a competitor whilst gaining protection money in the process.
SuSE were failing, but were a good company. Red Hat had the support of big US companies and SuSE had weird capitalisation and a basically German slant. Therefore RH got the big money from commerce and SuSE were a better *Linux* company.
You can find it here:
http://www.groklaw.net/pdf/USLsettlement.pdf
Enjoy.
The diversity and expression of human opinion is essential to human survival.
They should be going the way of the dinosaur. Dubli is where it's at, these days.
After a couple of failing companies submit to Microsoft's "Linux patent" extortion, and then go under, people will start talking about a "Microsoft Curse". That'll do more damange to them than they were hoping to do to Linux.
As someone who works with Novell's proprietary stack and SLES every day, not really. Certainly the Microsoft deal hurt them, a lot of what makes open source profitable is getting people to do work for free and when the raving loons decided that they'd done a deal with the devil(by taking cash from Microsoft in exchange for a whole lot of nothing in return) it would have cut into that quite a bit, but mostly their product offerings suck.
SLES is quite good, but it's slightly less well supported by third party vendors(that is to say if you want to run some proprietary software on a Linux offering you'll have more options if you go with RHEL). It's really very good though, and unlike RHEL isn't stuck with config utilities built and designed in the dark ages of Linux gui design. The consistent feel between the NCURSES and the X implementations of YAST is quite nice too.
SLED is of course a fantasy, the only people running it as a primary corporate desktop are doing it because they were forced by their IT department or for reasons of principle, and most of them are using a VM or Microsoft server somewhere to fill in the gaps. I honestly don't know why corporate Linux desktops didn't take off, but they haven't.
The biggest problems are that Groupwise, eDirectory, and even Zenworks(which used to be fantastic) are steaming piles of crap. Even if they weren't, I've dealt with too many vendors who basically laugh at you when you ask them for support and tell then you're running Novell. I had a vendor once blame Novell for a fault in their product when I could replicate it on a system which had never had any Novell software installed on it and wasn't connected to the network. They spent most of the 90's and early 00's arrogantly screwing their few remaining customers, failing to get new customers and generally screwing their profit margins into the ground. The few new sales they've picked up in the last 5 years or so have been based around their new middleware products and they don't even Demo those connecting to anything other than AD and Exchange anymore. Nothing like seeing a Novell sales rep coming to sell you in IDM and showing it connected to exchange and AD with no Novell backbone products in sight.
Novell have started to get a little better in the last few years, but like Sun they came in too little too late.
They only need to hold up examples of open source companies that are being strip mined to show the failure of the open source business model, that is one way to spin what is going on. The best strategy for Microsoft is to do nothing in this case.
“Common sense is not so common.” — Voltaire
I have actually done some contract work for Microsoft after going into business for myself. I wrote the paper featured here on Slashdot a few years ago on running PostgreSQL on Windows, for example. While if I do business with a company I make sure I am protected, this project turned out extremely well.
Folks in the FOSS community love to hate Microsoft. While I am not someone who thinks that Microsoft is a perfect company, and the company usually does get whatever they are after, I don't think one can blame Novell's issues today with their open source collaboration efforts with Microsoft. If you are going to blame Microsoft, you have to go back at least a decade.
Novell's recent problems stem, IMO, from making some fundamental mistakes about open source models. This is their own fault, not anybody else's.
LedgerSMB: Open source Accounting/ERP
I think I speak for us all when I ask...
Novell still exists?
"Destroy science and religion. Science would re-emerge exactly the same; but not religion." - Penn Jillette, paraphrased
The patents asserted by Microsoft on Linux are actually owned by Novell and once Novell is a fully owned subsidiary of Redmond said patents can be transferred to uncle bills treasure chest and the onslaught against FOSS can finally commence ;) The patented business concept is called "Future Patent Assertion"...
Counterpoint to this: I don't agree. The user name fails to stand out and blends in with the block header for that comment, which does not jump out at me. When Bruce (or whoever) signs a name, it is concise and does not have a string of text (user ID, subscriber options, email address, comment #) after it. If it bugs you, just pretend that the name is part of the sig.
Not that I'm telling Bruce not to make the requested change to the way he signs. But I want to speak out that not everyone finds it annoying.
404555974007725459910684486621289147856453481154 in hex is "You sank my Battleship?"
[GPG key in journal]
SCO lost because Novel owns Unix, the utilities, posix, and how it operates.
I am afraid of someone like Microsoft buying Unix only to cease and desist any Unix like product that looks similar. What better way to get back at Oracle and kill Linux then to own the unix standard?
Oracle owns Solaris.
If MS would be foolish enough to try a dirty trick against Oracle then they would just turn off Linux (assuming they would not want to flex their legal muscle).
IANAL but write like a drunk one.
Any one who worked in IT during the days of the decline of Novell Netware and the rise of Windows NT Server knows that it was not Microsoft that killed Novell, it was Novell's own "Client32" that killed Novell.