How Much Smaller Can Chips Go?

nk497 writes "To see one of the 32nm transistors on an Intel chip, you would need to enlarge the processor to beyond the size of a house. Such extreme scales have led some to wonder how much smaller Intel can take things and how long Moore's law will hold out. While Intel has overcome issues such as leaky gates, it faces new challenges. For the 22nm process, Intel faces the problem of 'dark silicon,' where the chip doesn't have enough power available to take advantage of all those transistors. Using the power budget of a 45nm chip, if the processor remains the same size only a quarter of the silicon is exploitable at 22nm, and only a tenth is usable at 11nm. There's also the issue of manufacturing. Today's chips are printed using deep ultraviolet lithography, but it's almost reached the point where it's physically impossible to print lines any thinner. Diffraction means the lines become blurred and fuzzy as the manufacturing processes become smaller, potentially causing transistors to fail. By the time 16nm chips arrive, manufacturers will have to move to extreme ultraviolet lithography — which Intel has spent 13 years and hundreds of millions trying to develop, without success."

Comments

Don't make them smaller

[AhabTheArab]

Make them bigger. More space to put stuff on them then anyway. Tostito's Restaurant style tortilla chips can fit much more guacamole and salsa on them than their bite size chips. Bigger is better when it comes to chips.

Re:Don't make them smaller

[TheDarAve]

This is also why Intel has been investing so much into in-silicon optical interconnects. They can go 3D if they can separate the wafers far enough to put a heat pipe in between and still pass data.

Re:Don't make them smaller

[quo_vadis]

You are incorrect about the reason for lack of 3D stacking. Its not that we cant stack them. There has been a lot of work on it. In fact, the reason flash chips are increasing in capacity is because they are stacked usually 8 layers high. The problem quite simply is heat dissipation. A modern CPU has a TDP of 130W, most of which is removed from the top of the chip, through the casing, to the heatsink. Put a second core on top of it, and the bottom layer develops hotspots that cannot be handled. There are currently some approaches based on microfluidic channels interspersed between the stacked dies, but that has its own drawbacks.

The Atoms

[Ironhandx]

They're going to hit atomic scale transistors fairly soon from what I can see as well, the manufacturing process for those is probably prohibitively expensive but that is as small as they can go(according to our current knowledge of the universe at least).

I can't imagine Intel has all of its eggs in one basket on Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography though. Something thats been in development for even 5 years and doesn't show any concrete signs of success should at least have alternatives developed for it. After 5 years if you still can't say for certain if its ever going to work, you definitely need to start looking in different directions.

Re:The Atoms

[hankwang]

I deal with EUV lithography for a living. Not at Intel, but at ASML, the world's largest supplier of lithography machines and the only one that has actually manufactured working EUV lithography tools.

Something thats been in development for even 5 years and doesn't show any concrete signs of success should at least have alternatives developed for it. After 5 years if you still can't say for certain if its ever going to work, you definitely need to start looking in different directions.

You are misinformed. On our Alpha development machines, working 22 nm devices were already manufactured last year. (source) We are shipping the first commercial EUV lithography machines in the coming year (source, source) A problem for the chip manufacturers is that the capacity on the alpha machines is rather low and needs to be shared among competitors.

There is a temporary alternative; it is called double patterning (and triple patterning, etcetera). The first problem is that you need twice (thrice) as many process steps for the small features, and also proportionally more lithography machines that are not exactly cheap. The second problem is that double patterning imposes tough restrictions on the chip design; basically you can only make chips that consist mostly of repeating simple patterns. That is doable for memory chips, but much less so for CPUs. Moreover, if you want to continue Moore's law that way, the manufacturing cost will increase exponentially, so this is not a long-term viable alternative.

You can bet that the semiconductor manufacturers have looked for alternatives. But those don't exist, at least not viable ones.

Re:I miss the pressure AMD used to put on Intel

[Revotron]

The latest revision of my Phenom II X4 disagrees with you. The Phenom II series is absolutely steamrolling over every other Intel product in its price range.

Hint: Notice I said "in its price range." Because not everyone prefers spending $1300 on a CPU that's marginally better than one at $600. It seems like Intel has stepped away from the "chip speed" game and stepped right into "ludicrously expensive".

Re:Maybe we will start seeing more cores?

[Anonymous Coward]

You have an uncanny ability to predict the present!

Better software

[Andy_w715]

How about writing better software. Stuff that doesn't require 24 cores and 64GB of RAM?