Slashdot Mirror


Scientists Confirm Nuclear Decay Rate Constancy

As_I_Please writes "Scientists at the US National Institute of Standards and Technology and Purdue University have ruled out neutrino flux as a cause of previously observed fluctuations in nuclear decay rates. From the article: 'Researchers ... tested this by comparing radioactive gold-198 in two shapes, spheres and thin foils, with the same mass and activity. Gold-198 releases neutrinos as it decays. The team reasoned that if neutrinos are affecting the decay rate, the atoms in the spheres should decay more slowly than the atoms in the foil because the neutrinos emitted by the atoms in the spheres would have a greater chance of interacting with their neighboring atoms. The maximum neutrino flux in the sample in their experiments was several times greater than the flux of neutrinos from the sun. The researchers followed the gamma-ray emission rate of each source for several weeks and found no difference between the decay rate of the spheres and the corresponding foils.' The paper can be found here on arXiv. Slashdot has previously covered the original announcement and followed up with the skepticism of other scientists."

28 of 95 comments (clear)

  1. Not a certain conclusion yet by BSAtHome · · Score: 4, Informative
    From the paper (emphasis mine):

    In summary, the present experiment is the first direct precision test of whether the decay rate of a radioactive source depends on its shape. Our results in Table 1 indicate a 2.3 deviation of the foil/sphere ratio in experiment 1 from unity. From Table 2, based on the initial 30 spectra, the foil/sphere ratio for experiment 2 deviates from unity by 2.6. These results thus leave open the possibility that the half-life of a radioactive nuclide could in fact depend on its shape (due to the internal flux of neutrinos, photons, or electrons), and hence suggests that additional experiments are necessary.

    So, there still is a chance that there is a deviation.

    1. Re:Not a certain conclusion yet by Frequency+Domain · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Yup, that's the nature of statistics. In order to "call" the result with a reasonable level of certainty the sample size requirements increase with smaller signal/noise ratios.

    2. Re:Not a certain conclusion yet by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      "So, there still is a chance that there is a deviation."

      Yes, of course. People have been saying that all along. And even with more experiments in the future it will always be the case that a deviation from constancy is possible. However, if there is a deviation, it's vanishingly small and what remains possible is getting smaller as the experiments are refined.

      People have been testing the constancy of radiometric decay rates for many decades. Those experiments always have limits in terms of their resolution of decay rates, but there are so many tests by now that we're usually talking about deviations on the order of 1% or less in most cases. It says something that any deviation that might be there is so close to constancy that is difficult to measure experimentally. Variations in decay rate on that scale are certainly a scientifically interesting possibility worth pursuing, but a big "so what?" in terms of their implications for many practical applications such as radiometric dating, where measurement uncertainties are on that order anyway.

    3. Re:Not a certain conclusion yet by ceoyoyo · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Those are some pretty big deviations to go with the headline "Scientists Confirm Nuclear Decay Rate Constancy." In any field except physics they would be considered significant evidence of a difference.

  2. Semantism by Kilrah_il · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I think the proper phrasing should be "No evidence for inconsistency of nuclear decay found". It seems pedantic, but proper scientific methodology works this way. There
    can still be inconsistency in nuclear decay, just not in this test scenario. You cannot prove consistency, you con only be very, very sure this is how nuclear decay works because you performed many studies that have failed to show something else. (Not that I despute their findings).

    --
    Whenever in an argument, remember this.
    1. Re:Semantism by Kilrah_il · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Well, but our nice editors have used the incorrect phrase "Scientists confirm nuclear decay rate consistancy". Just responding to that.

      --
      Whenever in an argument, remember this.
    2. Re:Semantism by Frequency+Domain · · Score: 4, Informative

      To be uber-pedantic they are not claiming proof of consistency. They are claiming the same thing you are, ie: their test rules out nutrino flux as a possible cause for the observations.

      Not quite, it doesn't rule it out. The observed changes are not large enough to be considered inconsistent with the hypothesis that neutrino flux has no role. With a larger sample or better control of variability, it's still possible that future experiments could reject the hypothesis.

    3. Re:Semantism by maxwell+demon · · Score: 2, Insightful

      They did confirm nuclear decay rate constancy. A confirmation is not a proof. It's just what the word says: A strengthening of the claim. It makes you more confident that the claim is true.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
  3. How big? by srussia · · Score: 3, Insightful

    From TFA:“There are always more unknowns in your measurements than you can think of,” Lindstrom says.

    How big were the foil and spherical samples? Neutrinos interact very weakly, so much so that neutrino detectors need to be on the order of 1 km^3.

    Heck, if I had that much gold (whatever isotope) I'd have better ways to spend my time.

    --
    Set your phasers on "funky"!
    1. Re:How big? by sFurbo · · Score: 5, Interesting

      The change in neutrino flux due to shape was bigger than the neutrino flux from the sun is, so it must be much bigger than changes in the solar neutrino flux (if I read the summary correctly). If that change in neutrino flux does not induce a measurable change in the rate of decay, then neither will the solar neutrino flux. I think it is a very elegant experiment, testing just what the hypothesis said.

      The effect might be different for different decays, so the hypothesis isn't completely dead. Now, if they made an alloy of gold-198 and the isotopes that is claimed to change decay rate...

  4. Only if it's neutrinos. by Israfels · · Score: 5, Insightful

    This, of course, is only true under the assumption that it's the neutrinos that are really causing the increase in radioactive decay. The article does mention that there were many unknowns in the measurements. It may be something else that causes this increase, or even a combination of two. It may also be the case that more neutrinos, the rate at which they're emitted, or other interacting fields alter the effect.

    1. Re:Only if it's neutrinos. by John+Hasler · · Score: 2, Informative

      Right. One must remember that the original article did not assert that solar neutrinos were cause. They merely speculated that they might be.

      --
      Warning: this article may contain humor, sarcasm, parody, and perhaps even irony. Read at your own risk.
  5. Re:Why wouldn't the scientists in this study... by Kilrah_il · · Score: 5, Insightful

    You are right, they are purposely avoiding using the same isotopes to avoid observing the phenomenon that caused them to perform this research. "Truly, you have a dizzying intellect."
    Call me naive, but maybe they had better reasons not to use the same material. I am not a physicist, so I don't know if it's correct, but here are some reasons I thought of, of the top of my head:
    1) Gold may have more neutrino activity, so there was a better chance to observe said phenomenon.
    2) The scientists involved have more experience working with gold, so they preferred using a material they are experienced with.
    3) Gold may be easier to work with and this it is easier to construct thin foils.
    4) They had a pile of unused gold and didn't know what to do with it :)

    Again, I don't know if these are valid/correct reasons, but I'm somehow convinced there is a better reason than the one you stated.

    --
    Whenever in an argument, remember this.
  6. Variations in time rather than decay? by timepilot · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Could it be that there are local variations in time during the original solar flare observations rather than fluctuations in the actual decay rate, and that it is not related to neutrinos from the flare but from some other gravitational changes coupled with flares?

    I know, my ignorance is showing. Sorry. IANASH (I am not a stephen hawking)

    1. Re:Variations in time rather than decay? by maxwell+demon · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I'd guess any variation in time so large that you can see it in decay time measurements would have created so many other clearly visible effects that it would not have gone unnoticed.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
  7. Re:Well maybe its something else coming from the s by CarpetShark · · Score: 4, Funny

    That's crazy talk. Everyone knows that the answer to all astrophysics problems is "11-dimensional dark matter particles".

  8. Re:Why wouldn't the scientists in this study... by sFurbo · · Score: 2, Interesting

    It would seem that they started with the simple experiment. If there had been an effect here, no need to go and do the complicated experiment. Now that there weren't an effect, make the same experiment, but with an alloy of gold-198 and manganese-54, and only measure the decay of manganese. Of course, just the proximity of gold-198 should be enough, so perhaps layers of foil of gold and manganese? Anyway, these experiment are more complicated to carry out, so it makes perfect sense to start with the simple experiment.

  9. Re:Tremendous Fun by JustOK · · Score: 2, Funny

    well, he's not the life of the party...he's the HALF-life!

    --
    rewriting history since 2109
  10. Re:So really... this means? by axedog · · Score: 2, Insightful

    It is of huge significance in radiometric dating. If we can show that the half-life of a radioisotope is constant, then it increases confidence in these dating methods. Conversely, if it can be shown that decay rates vary significantly, then accurate dating becomes more difficult and merits further research.

    --
    Sent from my Tianhe-2 (MilkyWay-2).
  11. Re:Why wouldn't the scientists in this study... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

    3) Gold may be easier to work with and this it is easier to construct thin foils.

    This. Gold is a phenomenally ductile metal -- ideal for making the thin foils typically used in preparing radioactive sources. If you want a radioactive source, the easiest thing to try (broadly speaking) is electroplating your nuclide of interest on a gold substrate. Then all your measurements require you to take the shielding properties of gold into account, but that's not usually too big a deal.

    I am a nuclear physicist (grad student), and one of the key issues we have to deal with is sample preparation. The bleeding-edge is thin carbon foils, but that's expensive and tricky and takes a long time. If you want a sample quick, you use a gold substrate. No conspiracy here, folks.

  12. Radioactive decay variations by russotto · · Score: 2, Interesting

    This study provides strong evidence against solar neutrino flux being the reason for observed variations in radioactive decay. However, it does not provide evidence against those variations -- nor was it designed to. The measurements still need to be explained; there have been reports of changes in radioactive decay during solar flares, and also seasonal variations; most likely IMO they're some sort of systemic measurement error, but maybe not.

    Also note that the idea that decay rates might be affected by particle flux or shape isn't all that farfetched. Fission rates in certain isotopes are, for instance.

  13. Re:Not enough time by ceoyoyo · · Score: 3, Insightful

    They're investigating the hypothesis that it's neutrinos that cause the variation. Did you even read the summary, or just the sensationalistic headline?

  14. Neutrino oscillations? by calidoscope · · Score: 2, Informative

    The study overlooks neutrino oscillations, the neutrinos from the gold have had little chance to oscillate. While it is probable that neutrinos don't affect decay rates, the study isn't as conclusive as the summary makes it out to be.

    The decay rate for electron capture is mildly affected by pressure.

    --
    A Shadeless room is a brighter room.
  15. Untrue by Kupfernigk · · Score: 2, Informative
    It seems you do not understand the nature of statistics. "significant evidence" is a statistical measure for which there are well-defined measurements. In any field of science, including social science like polling, "significant" has a precise meaning. In this case, the difference was not significant.

    Journalism, by the way, is not science. In fact, it is usually the enemy of science.

    --
    From scarped cliff or quarried stone she cries "A thousand types are gone, I care for nothing, no not one."
    1. Re:Untrue by ceoyoyo · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I think I have a pretty good grasp of statistics, thanks.

      As I explicitly mentioned in my post, you're correct, there are different standards for "statistically significant" in different fields. Contrary to what you think, they're not particularly precise. They're basically rules of thumb and differ between fields, and even within fields, due to tradition, history, and sometimes experience. Note also that I was talking about the Slashdot headline and summary. In fact, I quoted the former. Sorry, I thought the quote made it obvious.

      The headline claims "Scientists Confirm Nuclear Decay Rate Constancy." In fact, they did no such thing. They found (weak) evidence of change. In order to confirm constancy, they would have to find significant evidence of no change.

      Why don't you go grab a cup of coffee, or maybe a nap? You're awfully cranky for a Saturday morning.

    2. Re:Untrue by jd · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I'm not going to bother RTFAing, but this would depend on whether the test is two-tailed or one-tailed, in terms of how to interpret the p value. Because this kind of statistical test ultimately boils down to a simple measure of the observed versus a given expected, it is also only really good at testing against H0, the Null Hypothesis. There are more complex tests which allow you to measure against multiple variables in a single test (a good approach as it, in theory, allows you to examine the interactions between variables).

      However, these all make one core assumption: that variables you're not testing out are randomly distributed. In other words, as the sample size goes up, the errors will all balance out and so the noise approaches zero. Which is entirely fair if it is indeed noise, which is why we were taught at University that you should do an analysis of variance that allowed you to test to make sure that there weren't any untested factors.

      Like I said, I've not RTFA'ed, so I can't say if they did this here, but the experiment seems to have been designed with some measure of care - better than anything I've seen from earlier stories on the subject.

      --
      It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
  16. I agree... by Grog6 · · Score: 3, Informative

    This experiment covered only the decay of Gold-198; The ones that were found to be changing were exhibiting electron capture decays, a completely different mechanism.

    For such a limited experiment, the claims are grandiose, IMHO.

    Neutrinos also oscillate forms; perhaps the emitted form doesn't interact the same way.

    .

    --
    Truth isn't Truth - Guliani
  17. Re:How can they do such an experiment? by Richard+Kirk · · Score: 2, Informative

    You are right - neutrinos can pass through a lot of matter without the matter affecting the neutrino, or the neutrino affecting the matter. Or so we think. A couple of people noticed that the apparent decay rates were different during a solar flare, which could mean there may be strange circumstances where the neutrinos had more effect than we expect. Or it could have been something other than neutrinos, if our understanding is that far off. I didn't think that was likely, but it doesn't hurt to test your assumptions once in a while.

    The trouble with original measurements were that they could not easily be repeated. You could wait for the sun to have another significant outburst, and see whether the same detectors measure the same pulse, but you could never be sure whether that burst happened to put out a 'clump' of neutrinos in a particular direction. However, they designed a much neater experiment. This used a gold isotope that emits neutrinos when it decays. Some of it was made into a foil and some was made into a ball. You could then measure the foil with one detector and the ball with another, and then you could swap the detectors around. If this experiment is done properly then this could cancel out any difference in the detectors or the measuring environment or the background neutrino flux (if that is important).

    If you design experiments, you get to appreciate the forms of really good experiments: they have a canon-like symmetry to balance out all the known and unknown effects you can imagine except for the one you are trying to measure. This feels like one of them. So, in the end, science wins. Yay.