Slashdot Mirror


Humans Will Need Two Earths By 2030

An anonymous reader writes "A recent report warns that humans are overusing the resources of the planet and will need two Earths by the year 2030. The Living Planet Report tells that the demands on natural resources have doubled in the past 50 years and are now outstripping what the Earth can provide by more than half."

20 of 738 comments (clear)

  1. Bull by Anrego · · Score: 4, Insightful

    .. and we've run out of ipv4 addresses "in about a year" for the last decade or so..

    and people will probably pay about as much heed to this warning as they do to ipv4 exhaustion.

    AND just like ipv4 exhaustion, nothing serious is going to be done about this until stuff actually starts falling apart. And by falling apart I don't mean charts and graphs, I mean "The Day After Tomorrow" falling apart. And even then...

    1. Re:Bull by SerpentMage · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I rather doubt we will have a "day after tomorrow", things don't happen like that. Instead I see a mechanization of our nature. For example, imagine a sort of nature where things are completely recycled? Sound far fetched? Consider how Switzerland is essentially self-sufficient in copper. Does Switzerland have copper mines? Nope not even close. Copper can be easily recycled and hence Switzerland recycles their own copper. This goes towards rare earths, etc, etc.

      While many people believe that we waste, waste, waste, there are many pockets of the world that are now becoming adapt at living with little. Classic example is Israel. Israel can grow crops with water amounts that makes everybody else blush with embarrassment. That is the future...

      --

      "You can't make a race horse of a pig"
      "No," said Samuel, "but you can make very fast pig"
    2. Re:Bull by MoonBuggy · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Precisely. These kind of projections invariably fail to take into account even the most basic ideas about supply and demand. As we begin to run lower on a given resource it becomes increasingly more viable to recycle it or look for alternatives. In most cases this happens without even especially inconveniencing people - everyone might grumble about fuel prices, but then they just drive a little less, the market for more efficient cars grows, and not that much changes in our day to day lives.

    3. Re:Bull by Penguinisto · · Score: 4, Insightful

      With the Earth, don't expect any such workaround.

      Yes we can, and are actively working towards them even as I type this.

      The workarounds include higher efficiency devices (e.g. iPad/Mac Mini/laptop instead of a massive gaming desktop), lowered consumption (when gasoline hits $5/gal in the US, odds are excellent that we'll all be driving less), and a different way of providing the goods (locally-sourced and produced foods instead of container-ship shipped, etc).

      Long-term, this also includes starting colonies off-Earth, or at least having commercial space mining and production (which in turn expands the resource pool for a lot of things, from energy to minerals, to living space when we start looking centuries ahead). We're doing space tourism now (well, not-quite-LEO), and with commercial space industry warming up, it is not impossible (or even improbable) to consider viable commercial space entities making regular trips up and back by 2030. Consider that the first airplane flight happened in 1903, and we had commercial passenger flight by 1930.

      This has nothing to do with "left" or "right", and using such designations will only muddy the water (and degenerate the debate). Please refrain from doing so.

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    4. Re:Bull by gestalt_n_pepper · · Score: 5, Insightful

      What Carter was discussing was resources in the USA, at projected increased rates of consumption. Since we passed peak oil in the continental USA in the 70s, this was not inaccurate. I don't think it ever occurred to him that we were collectively such self-absorbed greedy obtuse little wussies that we would let ourselves become dependent on the Arabs, Russians and Mexicans for the life blood of our economic viability and strategic safety (i.e. Oil).

      Surprise!

      --
      Please do not read this sig. Thank you.
    5. Re:Bull by gilleain · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Funny, I could have sworn that the US still has the worlds largest supply of oil shale. Plus oil sand. Plus coal. Plus plenty of offshore oil, and oil in Alaska. I guess "peak oil" to you just means "we have less than we used to"?

      To most people, "peak oil" is the point at which production is at a peak. After this point, a country (or the world) is _producing_ less then they used to. Unless the oil shales have reversed the trend in the US, it does seem like that point has been reached.

      A relevant graph from wikipedia

    6. Re:Bull by gilleain · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Hmmm. I'm a little confused by your assumption that everyone has their own personal definition of what "peak oil" means. I'm fairly certain that there is only one accepted meaning for the term, however useful or useless. I mean, I'm all for refining the usage of words and technical terminology - but not to the point of having individual relationships with words.

      I don't find myself discussing peak oil very often, but if I wanted a term that meant "the point at which production starts to decline" then I think it would come in pretty useful....

    7. Re:Bull by Goody · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Bad analogy. "Peak nuclear" is merely due to a lack of construction of nuclear power plants, not lack a lack of nuclear fuel. Peak oil is due a dwindling amount of oil that can be economically extracted.

      --
      Tired of being "punished" by the Slashdot $rtbl since 2002. I'm now over at http://soylentnews.org/ .
  2. Another low point by groomed · · Score: 5, Insightful

    What is the purpose of this post? What does it even mean? What is the purpose of posting a link to a nebulous summary of a highly suggestive report on an extremely politically charged subject on a site that bills itself "News for Nerds"?

    1. Re:Another low point by Sponge+Bath · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Sensationalism. Trolling. Flamebait.

      Welcome to the machine.

  3. Peak Oil not Oil Running Out by bananaendian · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Quick, someone say "we're using the resources at a larger rate than the earth can provide" ! before the cornucopians come out of their caves to declare infinite growth through infinite resources.

    The bottle maybe big but the spout is killing us.

    --
    www.tribalnetworks.org - helping tribal people around the world to own their own means of high-tech communications
  4. Misleading by ian(at)union.io · · Score: 5, Insightful

    This has F-U-D written all over it. Yes, we might need 2.75 Earths worth of *some* minerals or resources, such as tungsten or cork trees, in 20 years, but we certainly do not need 2.75 Earths worth of other, vaster resources, such as breathable air or silicon. To say that we'd need two Earths in order to quench our ravenous thirst for light bulb filaments is overkill, and certainly does more to make me discount these studies than think poorly of how humanity manages the resources we have.

  5. Consider the source by davev2.0 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Somehow I doubt that the groups who created this report are impartial and it is well known that if one goes looking for a specific conclusion, one will find the conclusion whether the conclusion is correct or not.

  6. Re:And the religions of the world.... by mc6809e · · Score: 4, Insightful

    still refuse to discuss population control.

    And so do the non religious, unfortunately. Worse, they seem intent on subsidizing the fecundity of the stupid at the expense of the responsible.

  7. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by Fnkmaster · · Score: 5, Insightful

    You are painting with an excessively broad brush here.

    You don't need mystical mumbo jumbo to not want pesticides all over your fruits and vegetables.

    You don't need mystical mumbo jumbo to not want your chicken and cows raised in factory farming conditions, fed hormones, antibiotics, and the cheapest foodstuff imaginable to fatten them up as quickly as possible.

    Why do you need mystical mumbo jumbo to be aware of the major nutritional differences between wild-caught fish and farmed fish, that are principally due to their different feeding habits.

    So yeah, some of the stuff labeled "organic" that's basically identical to conventional stuff may be a rip-off, but there is plenty for a purely scientific, rational-minded person to critique in our industrial food system and plenty of reasons to avoid certain food produced by them.

  8. Shameless self promotion by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The overpopulation myth. Bottom line - we could provide for every single person living on this planet with just the resources inside the US. Never mind the rest of the world. We're a LONG way from overpopulation... We have a distribution - not resource - problem to solve.

    --
    Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
  9. Re:Ridiculous by sqrt(2) · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Packing everyone into 8x10 cells, isn't an acceptable solution to me. Any solution that doesn't allow for wide open space of undeveloped land, wilderness, forests, jungles, deserts, is suboptimal. We could cram everyone into skyscrapers that cover the entire earth in one giant planet wide city, but what kind of life would that be? Quality of life and quality of our living space are important things to consider. Humans were not meant to be packed like sardines into crowded cities with no where to escape to. The health effects both known and unknown would be profound.

    --
    If you build it, nerds will come. Soylentnews.org
  10. Re:And the religions of the world.... by Penguinisto · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Affluence = population control. Note how Europe and the US are experiencing all of their population growth now due to immigration? It doesn't require mandatory birth control measures (or enforced abortion laws, etc) to keep the population down.

    All you really have to do is provide the masses with a better form of retirement plan than: 'have a shitload of kids so that at least some will live long enough to care for you when you get old'.

    --
    Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
  11. Re:Sigh, These TreeHuggers must need more $$ by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Uh oh, another "non-profit" group must need money to supplement their jet's and expensive dinners.

    That is a stupid argument. Imagine you see someone disemabarking from a private jet, wearing a suit that costs more than the salaries of you and I combined, just so that they can attend an expensive dinner in another city. Which is more likely?

    1. They are a climate scientist (or member of a tree-hugging, non-profit group).
    2. They are a mining executive.

    Which side of this argument has the most financial interest in arguing either for or against limiting our use of Earth's resources? Let's face it, you don't get super rich by becoming a climate scientist.

    It reminds me of when the three CEOs of the car industry all took private planes to lobby Washington for a taxpayer handout. But no, I am sure that you are right that it is the tree-huggers who are the ones trying to greedily screw us all for money.

  12. Well, of course. by Animats · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Of course. Human civilizations are about 3000 years old, but industrial civilization is only 200 years old. Only in the past 100 years has large-scale resource extraction, large enough to make a big dent in potential supply, been feasible. The really rich ores, like veins of copper with over 1% metal, are long gone. Over the next century, lots of stuff is going to run out. Oil production peaked in 2005. There hasn't been a major new energy source in the last half century; just improvements on previous ones.

    The "free market will solve all problems" crowd was insisting that peak oil would never happen. But it did. The price of oil has tripled without an increase in supply.